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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Truly we have arrived at post-truth:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
    So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.

    Dan Hodges is certainly the right journalist for a post-truth politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    :+1:

    The British are very good at fudges. All sounds doable to me.
    A fudge is the best and most realistic way to keep everyone content. Not satisfied, but content.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685
    How about the "Social Justice Warrior Party"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    What is with it with people latching onto this non-entities and then proclaiming them pretty much the new messiah who must be saved and defended at all costs.

    Is it that they can project anything they like onto them as they have no projection back?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Wouldn't it smack of the same type of con as Cameron's 'the proles will believe anything' renegotiation?
    His deal had to be put to us proles though. A Brexit deal doesn't. Some are saying they think it should, but it is not obilgatory.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920

    Truly we have arrived at post-truth:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
    So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.

    Perfect!

    So now we can look forward to a fake tweet from Barclays Bank confirming that Leadsom ran its UK banking operations, a fake tweet from Companies House confirming that they got it wrong and that she was the managing director of her brother-in-law's hedge fund, a fake tweet from the Queen endorsing her candidature, a fake tweet from Theresa May withdrawing from the contest, and so on?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Wouldn't it smack of the same type of con as Cameron's 'the proles will believe anything' renegotiation?
    The trouble is none of us are going to be happy are we? May will have to do the calculus of the greatest good of the greatest number. It's very hard to discern the true motive behind either a Remain or Leave vote.

    I'm not convinced that we can get away with vanilla EEA without social unrest. The UK has made immigration control a red line. I guess it depends on how callous we are. The DNVers can be ignored now. They had their say. I hasten to add that this is not my position. But some people clearly think this is the case.

    Of course, the economic slowdown might offer a figleaf for the PM, but I'm not convinced on that either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Hmm I shop alot at the Co-op. Bit more expensive than Morrisons or Aldi, but a nice service and friendly staff - always a till free.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Having rejected one electoral reform package, it would be unthinkable to attempt another change without mass support through a referendum.
    Not at all. The Coalition did not have a mandate, even an implied one, to just up and change the voting system. If it was in the manifestos of whoever one (and if in coalition both sides had it in their manifestos) they could justifiably do it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685
    edited July 2016
    ToryJim said:

    Wonder if the Sundays will make happy reading at Casa Leadsom
    The Leadership campaign situation has developed not necessarily to Andrea Leadsom's advantage.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920

    But will they get rumbelowed?
    It's maybe not the brightest idea for a small group of fanatics to think they can misrepresent what a national newspaper is saying by circulating fake tweets. So maybe Andrea thought of it herself?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    The Leadership campaign situation has developed not necessarily to Angela Leadsom's advantage.
    Looking forward to it. I get the feeling we may have barely scratched the surface with respect to her made-up financial jobs and whacko views on life.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    A fudge is the best and most realistic way to keep everyone content. Not satisfied, but content.
    This would be good fudge though. We have far more control than now which is zero.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685

    Looking forward to it. I get the feeling we may have barely scratched the surface with respect to her made-up financial jobs and whacko views on life.
    Andrea Leadsom even :lol:

    (original post corrected)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Jobabob said:

    Eagle is a stalking horse

    Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson
    It was of course inevitable after this morning's article, wasn't it?!

    That said, the near-fortnight long delay hasn't done her or the anti-Corbyn campaign any favours. They're now launching the challenge - assuming that they do - against a backdrop where Corbyn is speaking on a relavant issue where he was right and where she was wrong; Corbyn has proven himself willing to stand up for himself and for his beliefs and his opponents have looked either fractious or timid (being generous, you could argue that they were seeking to give Corbyn an honourable way out but while that might have been a legitimate argument for delaying 12 hours, that same case doesn't stretch to 12 days).

    Problem is, what is the plan for if - when - she loses?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Chris said:

    It's maybe not the brightest idea for a small group of fanatics to think they can misrepresent what a national newspaper is saying by circulating fake tweets. So maybe Andrea thought of it herself?
    A newspaper sues for defamation!! Oh that would be a jolly hoot. And damages from the individuals concerned could be massive (corporate reputation and all that).

    And wait, who owns the Times? Someone with very deep pockets.

    Bring it on. Bring it on.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    I always feel slightly guilty when I have to pick up a few bits from the co-op. You never know to which sinister causes your money might be headed...
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    SeanT said:

    As some of us predicted on here, the EU nation states are already "informally" talking to the UK about Brexit

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/philip-hammond-eu-leaders-happy-to-hold-informal-brexit-talks

    It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.

    Yep. And I was asked by one of the negotiators my opinion on a matter the other day as part of the prelims. Of course, the Commission don't like it but the movers And shakers are all planning post-Juncker.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: Beginning to suspect the Leadsom Truthers must be a black-ops stunt played by Theresa May. False flags everywhere, you know. Be vigilant.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192

    It was of course inevitable after this morning's article, wasn't it?!

    That said, the near-fortnight long delay hasn't done her or the anti-Corbyn campaign any favours. They're now launching the challenge - assuming that they do - against a backdrop where Corbyn is speaking on a relavant issue where he was right and where she was wrong; Corbyn has proven himself willing to stand up for himself and for his beliefs and his opponents have looked either fractious or timid (being generous, you could argue that they were seeking to give Corbyn an honourable way out but while that might have been a legitimate argument for delaying 12 hours, that same case doesn't stretch to 12 days).

    Problem is, what is the plan for if - when - she loses?
    Do they even have a plan for if she wins?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Once again the westminster bubble loses the plot by descending in to tory women jello wrestling

    Any chance either of these two might have some policies ?

    And if so what are they ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    ToryJim said:

    Do they even have a plan for if she wins?
    She does an Estelle Morris and hands the job to Chuka?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ToryJim said:

    Do they even have a plan for if she wins?
    From Angela Eagles' to-do list:

    Job one, day one. Change rules for leadership elections.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

    If 170 Labour MPs joined the Lib Dems, they wouldn't be serving under Farron; it'd be one of their own.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    SeanT said:

    You're never gonna persuade hardcore kippers who want us towed into the South Atlantic and zero migration, but there would be enough in this to persuade logical LEAVERS - it's the best we can reasonably expect.

    The coming slowdown will concentrate minds and I anticipate Brits will be more willing to yield. Also the slowdown will reduce net migration anyway, so the pressure will be off.

    And this deal would be some kind of relief to the 48% who voted REMAIN. So you'd have 60-70% of the country more or less onside...



    Yes and of course the UK was originally a founder member of EFTA in 1960 along with Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Austria and Portugal before voting to join the EEC in 1975.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    If 170 Labour MPs joined the Lib Dems, they wouldn't be serving under Farron; it'd be one of their own.
    That isn't a defection, that is a take-over.

    Much better to develop a new brand than be part of a fading phoenix
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    If 170 Labour MPs joined the Lib Dems, they wouldn't be serving under Farron; it'd be one of their own.
    If one of them is brave enough to defect on their own, they could become the de facto leader once it became a stampede.

    It's not going to happen though.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    News from South Oxfordshire Council, where Loathesome was a Councillor:. My Man in the Robes tells me she was "Lazy, useless and stupid". More comedy gold to mine from that rich seam in the weeks to come.

    bunnco. Your man on the spot
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685
    HYUFD said:

    Yes and of course the UK was originally a founder member of EFTA in 1960 along with Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Austria and Portugal before voting to join the EEC in 1975.
    UK joined in 1973.
  • AndyJS said:

    If the main party leaders are going to be Corbyn and Leadsom, you'd have about 420 MPs from Con and Lab who don't support their leader.

    That's a bit of a nonsense. We don't know yet how many Conservative MPs won't support their elected leader. Usually the vast majority accept the result of leader elected. Quite different from Labour MPs who actually want to remove their elected leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    SeanT said:

    That's the crucial phrase. May says she wants "controlled freedom of movement" - hence my speculations downthread, as to what that might mean (emergency brakes, need for job offer, etc)

    The EU could, I think, accept this on the basis that free movement had not been fundamentally challenged (just *qualified*), the UK could accept this on the basis that we would have much more control over who comes in (if not absolute control).

    It's a compromise, but it will be in the interests of all to compromise. Both sides will be able to say they got a good deal. May could say "look we're liberated from the EU without doing too much damage", the EU could say "look the idiot Brits have no more influence on decision making but they're still having to pay"



    Agree entirely
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Once again the westminster bubble loses the plot by descending in to tory women jello wrestling

    Any chance either of these two might have some policies ?

    And if so what are they ?

    We know May has nothing and looks like the other one is just as useless
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    John_M said:

    From Angela Eagles' to-do list:

    Job one, day one. Change rules for leadership elections.
    No.

    Day one - ban Momentum and remove all of their members from Labour party lists

    Without the purge, she would never be secure.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    bunnco said:

    News from South Oxfordshire Council, where Loathesome was a Councillor:. My Man in the Robes tells me she was "Lazy, useless and stupid".

    ...and a mother...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Mr. Bunnco, welcome back [though, happily, after a short hiatus only].
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Leadsom's also said that the single market is in all our interests. The main difference I see between them is the starting bid in negotiations on freedom of movement: May will start from the status quo and look for what can be 'controlled' (or simply made subject to Home Office bureaucracy) whereas Leadsom will start from the position that the rEU is put on the same basis as the US, Australia, etc.
    Yes but Leadsom will not get access to the single market unless she accepts at least some freedom of movement which she has said she will not
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    bunnco said:

    News from South Oxfordshire Council, where Loathesome was a Councillor:. My Man in the Robes tells me she was "Lazy, useless and stupid". More comedy gold to mine from that rich seam in the weeks to come.

    bunnco. Your man on the spot

    The risk is that all this overblown opprobrium will lower the bar she needs to step over in the coming weeks. Leadsom may not be PM material but she's clearly got some political talent.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    No.

    Day one - ban Momentum and remove all of their members from Labour party lists

    Without the purge, she would never be secure.
    Good point. I agree. Could she actually do that?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    SeanT said:

    I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.

    May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.

    Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.

    It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
    It's not absurd. In fact, I'd mentally sketched out an article on very similar lines - a sort of Three-Plus Freedoms arrangement. However, the profusion of leadership elections to comment on meant that it hasn't been written yet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    If 170 Labour MPs joined the Lib Dems, they wouldn't be serving under Farron; it'd be one of their own.
    Lol doubt we'd let them all in - 170 MPs can't destabilise their own leader so try and destabilise someone elses. Is Andy Burnham amongst the 170 or does Corbyn have him hostage ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Mr. Pulpstar, Burnham's in a waiting room, watching the hours crawl by before he can try and be mayor of Manchester.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    John_M said:

    Good point. I agree. Could she actually do that?
    I don't think so. Not without a lot of blood letting.

    Momentum is more dangerous to the long term survival of The Labour Party than Militant ever was.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    bunnco said:

    News from South Oxfordshire Council, where Loathesome was a Councillor:. My Man in the Robes tells me she was "Lazy, useless and stupid". More comedy gold to mine from that rich seam in the weeks to come.

    bunnco. Your man on the spot

    The Barings weekend is due some scrutiny. She needs asking whether she actually met Eddie George that weekend, or indeed ever.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Pulpstar, Burnham's in a waiting room, watching the hours crawl by before he can try and be mayor of Manchester.

    He needs Corbyn in post...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    UK joined in 1973.
    It joined EFTA in 1960, EEC entry was only completed in 1975 after the referendum was won
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Once again the westminster bubble loses the plot by descending in to tory women jello wrestling

    Any chance either of these two might have some policies ?

    And if so what are they ?

    It's been a few days since it got down to the final two - policies will come, the first few days would always have been about making an impression.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685
    "In the Stasi, we had a basic principle: ask enough questions and a man who is lying will eventually change his story. But the man who tells the truth cannot change his, however unlikely his story sounds."
    - Bruno Ganz (of "Downfall" fame) in "Unknown" (2011)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Having adjusted a CV, and faked an apology from The Times, what are the tax returns going to look like?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    bunnco said:

    News from South Oxfordshire Council, where Loathesome was a Councillor:. My Man in the Robes tells me she was "Lazy, useless and stupid". More comedy gold to mine from that rich seam in the weeks to come.

    bunnco. Your man on the spot

    May will clearly win but Leadsom may get a significant vote just through opposing freedom of movement, which UKIP will then look to build on
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    SeanT said:

    Yes, and too much sneering and chortling will win Leadsom precious sympathy.

    The best strategy, for her opponents, is to step back and let her trip over her own contradictions. She's already on record saying "the £ will not fall after Brexit".


    the Mayists are too busy pursuing their womb with a view scandal

    it's just amazing the politicos get one of their biggest kicking in living memory and they still think we give a fuck about where they get their hair done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    SeanT said:

    Yes, and too much sneering and chortling will win Leadsom precious sympathy.

    The best strategy, for her opponents, is to step back and let her trip over her own contradictions.

    Correct. I found her protestations weak and unconvincing, not to mention playing on familiar bullcrap persecution - remainstream media is a particularly lazy version of the usual stuff - but if she's so bad, she doesn't need help to do it. If she's not so bad, well, then all the better.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Scott_P said:

    Having adjusted a CV, and faked an apology from The Times, what are the tax returns going to look like?

    Will we ever see them to know?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    MaxPB said:

    I think it will be tough to get a heads of agreement with Hollande and then have Juppe or Sarkozy sign it into law with few to no changes.
    A high risk - but potentially high reward - option would be for PM May to begin quiet talks with Juppe/Sarkozy now. It would probably flatter their ego no end to be involved in something so important before they're even elected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    rcs1000 said:

    A high risk - but potentially high reward - option would be for PM May to begin quiet talks with Juppe/Sarkozy now. It would probably flatter their ego no end to be involved in something so important before they're even elected.
    It's interesting that Merkel has had a couple of meetings with Sarkozy recently.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Scott_P said:

    He needs Corbyn in post...
    Burnham is consistently coming third in the selection process. He is never going to be Mayor of anything other than Munchkinland...
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    kle4 said:

    Correct. I found her protestations weak and unconvincing, not to mention playing on familiar bullcrap persecution - remainstream media is a particularly lazy version of the usual stuff - but if she's so bad, she doesn't need help to do it. If she's not so bad, well, then all the better.
    Once she has gone I will feel sorry for her. but she needs to go.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    HYUFD said:

    Agree entirely

    Work visa granted in UK or journey home necessary? I could only get my Spanish work visa from the consulate in London.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    the Mayists are too busy pursuing their womb with a view scandal

    it's just amazing the politicos get one of their biggest kicking in living memory and they still think we give a fuck about where they get their hair done.
    I guess you don't care how untruthful our politicians are. I do,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Ishmael_X said:

    Once she has gone I will feel sorry for her. but she needs to go.
    She cannot go as Tory rules mean May would then be unopposed, a disaster which would give her no mandate when she agrees to the UK staying in the EEA
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    It is only interesting if the number of eligible voters who register is the same across age groups. From other figures I've seen, that simply is not the case. The apathy of the youth manifests itself at the registration stage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,685
    HYUFD said:

    It joined EFTA in 1960, EEC entry was only completed in 1975 after the referendum was won
    Denmark, Ireland and the UK joined the Community effective 1 January 1973.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Sample size of 2,002? Seems pretty thin to me - though I have no axe to grind here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Work visa granted in UK or journey home necessary? I could only get my Spanish work visa from the consulate in London.

    Technical details to be worked out yes but a deal will be done
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737


    But who will get the assets, the name, etc? There is no guarantee it has to be Corbyn's lot.

    Maybe split now, and regroup for 2020. Probably best for them now.

    The Labour Party is an unincorporated association of the mass members. The possibility that the PLP might split into two factions is irrelevant, even if the smaller faction remains the 'official' group.

    Furthermore, even if the mass membership split, it is doubtful that the splitters, even if a majority (highly unlikely), could walk off with the name and assets.

    The courts would probably take the view that it's an internal matter of control [a power-struggle], and if one faction can't get the upper hand via the party's own rules, and instead choose to walk, they have no rights to anything, and would have to start a new party.

    I haven't checked the Labour Party Rules, but the general principle is the minority [even a single member] cannot be deprived of their property, unless the rules they have agreed to when joining provide for it.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn has a passion and belief you simply don't see in any of his Labour rivals tbh.

    McDonnell, Livingstone? Not in the first flush of youth though and couldn't possibly be 'rivals' for the succession unless voters accept the idea of leaders sometimes having, er, grey hair.

    No, I haven't heard much passion in the young ones, except the SNP MP who got a standing ovation for her maiden speech. Perhaps Blair rigged the selection process enough to attract mostly apparatchiks.

    He's pretty well destroyed the party. It's something which the Tories must be amazed at, but also pretty concerned if they're sensible and realise that a FPTP system needs a proper Opposition and ideally not too large a majority.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    Having adjusted a CV, and faked an apology from The Times, what are the tax returns going to look like?

    I think there's some concern about Leadsom's large share holdings in "Mothercare", "Toys R Us" and "Huggies".

    What could possibly go wrong ?!?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    Why exactly should we believe an opinion poll conducting 3 weeks later is any more accurate than one conducted on the day of the poll?

    The methodology involves adjustments for false recall which must surely be partially begging the question when you're trying to work out who actually voted. Given the hysteria afterwards it would not be remotely shocking for young 'voters' to be most likely to claim to have voted when they didn't.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    SeanT said:

    It is. It also implies that a lot more young people voted LEAVE than we have presumed. Otherwise REMAIN would have won.

    Yep - my 23 year old nephew, who is training to be an electrician, voted Leave. All his mates did too.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    maaarsh said:

    Why exactly should we believe an opinion poll conducting 3 weeks later is any more accurate than one conducted on the day of the poll?

    The methodology involves adjustments for false recall which must surely be partially begging the question when you're trying to work out who actually voted. Given the hysteria afterwards it would not be remotely shocking for young 'voters' to be most likely to claim to have voted when they didn't.
    Because Opinium predicted a Leave victory?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    The King in the north !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    It's interesting that Merkel has had a couple of meetings with Sarkozy recently.
    I've heard a rumour that the winner of Juppe and Sarkozy will make the other PM in their administration. It's a pretty plausible story.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    I guess you don't care how untruthful our politicians are. I do,
    theyre all untruthful, thats why theyre politicians.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016

    Absolutely not a cult ..

    I think your second word is redundant and the last word misspelt ....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2016
    Shame The North did not bother to support Corbyn’s call for Remain.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Pulpstar said:
    Northern rebellions do tend to fail. And there is no evidence that this will be anything different...

    Kings in the north quite often end up dead....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    HYUFD said:

    It joined EFTA in 1960, EEC entry was only completed in 1975 after the referendum was won
    I don't think that's true: we become members of the EEC in 1973, the referendum merely confirmed what was already the case.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    theyre all untruthful, thats why theyre politicians.
    They have to be untruthful. The country would go into meltdown if they were told the truth :).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    theyre all untruthful, thats why theyre politicians.
    You are just an everyday cynic. Is your glass half full or half empty....
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    maaarsh said:

    Why exactly should we believe an opinion poll conducting 3 weeks later is any more accurate than one conducted on the day of the poll?

    The methodology involves adjustments for false recall which must surely be partially begging the question when you're trying to work out who actually voted. Given the hysteria afterwards it would not be remotely shocking for young 'voters' to be most likely to claim to have voted when they didn't.
    Given that a large chunk of 18-24 year olds don't register, even if the poll is right it's only half the picture.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    You are just an everyday cynic. Is your glass half full or half empty....
    well lets see can you think of any PM in the modern era who hasnt lied ? Im afraid in your search for a saint you will be sorely disappointed.

    I dont actually mind a liar PM if they are effective.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    Shame The North did not bother to support Corbyn’s call for Remain.
    They could hardly support something that really didn't exist
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    well lets see can you think of any PM in the modern era who hasnt lied ? Im afraid in your search for a saint you will be sorely disappointed.

    I dont actually mind a liar PM if they are effective.
    effective to your viewpoint= just about impossible. Life would be unbearable if you couldn't be critical of politicians.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    SeanT said:

    That's why I've always thought Mandelson would have made an excellent prime minister. Better than Blair or Brown, or the Milibands, or, of course, Corbyn.

    He's a ruthless and cynical liar, but he's very good at it. And he's very smart, and a cunning political operator. A kind of Jewish Alex Salmond, without the Messiah complex.
    Didn't that happen?

    Mandelson was just Francis Urquart with a different hair-do surely...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    effective to your viewpoint= just about impossible. Life would be unbearable if you couldn't be critical of politicians.

    It's a fairly arrogant profession, these are people who say they can run your life better than you can. Really they can't.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    The Tory contest is turning into an edition of Loose Women and the Labour contest ...

    Is Jezza still clinging on? He's had his day in the sun with the Chilcot report. Even that was an anti-climax. Blair follows Bush on some random bop a dictator war. It always seemed odd and the reasons given were odder still. If you're launching a war on terror, why pick on one of the few dictators in the region who was relatively secular - his second in command was Catholic.

    So Jezza was against. Big deal. He'd have been against fighting even if Saddam had invaded Kent and begun executing the natives.

    May vs Eagles. The nonentity against the squeaky door.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Two rumoured corrections:

    Eagle will launch tomorrow on Peston, not Monday?

    Youth turnout in EUref now believed to be 64%, not <50% as previously thought
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    SeanT said:

    He seems like a kind of political giant, now, in retrospect - given the pygmies in charge of Labour, today.
    There is a distinct lack if quality on both sides of the house. When the Tory big beasts are the likes of Grayling, Javid and Hammond and the Labour ones non-existent it's clear that something is wrong with our politics and we're not attracting the right people any more.
  • SeanT said:

    That's why I've always thought Mandelson would have made an excellent prime minister. Better than Blair or Brown, or the Milibands, or, of course, Corbyn.

    He's a ruthless and cynical liar, but he's very good at it. And he's very smart, and a cunning political operator. A kind of Jewish Alex Salmond, without the Messiah complex.
    Mandelson?

    Hes certainly not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    IanB2 said:

    Two rumoured corrections:

    Youth turnout in EUref now believed to be 64%, not <50% as previously thought</p>

    Well who knows, it is just a poll saying that.

    Also remember voter registration rates among young people are much lower than average.
  • MaxPB said:

    There is a distinct lack if quality on both sides of the house. When the Tory big beasts are the likes of Grayling, Javid and Hammond and the Labour ones non-existent it's clear that something is wrong with our politics and we're not attracting the right people any more.
    Of course we are not. All the real power was in Brussels.

    Now we have voted to change that the Buck Stops with Westminster and that will attract suitably able people over time.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    It's a fairly arrogant profession, these are people who say they can run your life better than you can. Really they can't.
    .. but you like to berate them for it daily don't you....

    Since I lost my wife, I have an entirely different outlook on life. and taking any politician seriously isn't on the agenda.

    The reality is that at this juncture you have to vote Tory because Corbyn is bonkers, and until he is got rid of , it will remain so... then you can reassess. The individuals in the Tory party matter in this leadership election only inasmuch as the leader must be the one least likely to screw up, and that isn't Leadsom.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,715
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    They have to be untruthful. The country would go into meltdown if they were told the truth :).
    Yep. We can't handle the truth.

    The irony being that the Brexit vote is likely to do something that no politician dared: rebase our economy by slashing property prices by 30% or so and scaring people off excessive household debt thereby for generations.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Brexiteers dont do experts, or so I've heard.
  • SeanT said:

    Interesting in the light of what I wrote, earlier

    https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/751422823688732672

    The Norway option, even modified, seems like a non-starter to me. How can Theresa May say "Brexit means Brexit", yet keep us under the integrationist European Court of Justice, keep us under existing and future EU laws, and keep us unable to control immigration levels?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Yep. We can't handle the truth.

    The irony being that the Brexit vote is likely to do something that no politician dared: rebase our economy by slashing property prices by 30% or so and scaring people off excessive household debt thereby for generations.
    Its post-facto rationalisation, but Brexit might force the political classes to make some of those 'tough decisions' they've been wittering about for decades.

    Like, maybe build a new runway. Or build a few houses. Or fund the NHS by actually raising taxes. Abolish the triple lock. Baby steps.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    Northern rebellions do tend to fail. And there is no evidence that this will be anything different...

    Kings in the north quite often end up dead....
    TBH I can’t think of one that didn’t fail. Nor, TBH, one from the West Country. Successful rebellions have always had to have London involved.
This discussion has been closed.