Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.
Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.
There are some big questions facing the incoming prime minister, that much is clear.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
If Leadsom wins, I'll vote for Corbyn as the lesser of two evils. He'll be too incompetent to do much wrong. Leadsom will never win a GE as she harks back 30 years in social matters.
Eagle has a much chance winning the Labour Leadership as I have..
I thought Watson's statement was a bit too good to be true. Clearly, the unions have decided to kill Labour off. The self-defeating stupidity is quite mind-boggling.
Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.
Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.
Crabb should be out. Mrs May wont want anyone like Crabb in his cabinet not after those allegations.
When the UCATT-Unite merger completes, what happens to Jamie Bramwell's (UCATT) NEC seat? Does it go to another union ? (Assuming Unite's membership level stays level with the annexation only offsetting continued decline)
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.
I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.
I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.
The Times headline is a fair representation of what Leadsom said. It was Leadsom who initiated the comparison with May, it was Leadsom who put an emphasis on the word "children". It was Leadsom who complained after the Times accurately reported what she said, and published the audio recording to prove it. It is Leadsom who is not qualified, not experienced, and not suitable to be PM.
Mr. Max, if that's the approach, Foreign Secretary would be likeliest, as you suggest.
Chancellor is out, and Home/Justice are 'tough' jobs.
Mr. Observer, self-defeating stupidity can be surprisingly commonplace. Cf the cretinous bankers buying things they didn't understand, or the imbecilic dog-walkers who let their pets befoul the paths they themselves walk [that really bloody annoys me].
F1: oddly uncertain how things will go. May be a pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey bet.
Could David Cameron have done one last favour to the centrists with the timing of the Trident vote.
Unions are strongly pro Trident
Looking at that Len McCluskey statement it's clear the game is up for Labour. The party will split and FPTP will then wreak havoc on both sides for an election or two. It had to happen though. It's impossible for the hard left to compromise, so it can't be part of a broad church party.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.
Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.
Possibly, but it was buried under the bigger storm. Maybe Justine or Amber then.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I don't think Eagle will win but she could make it close enough Corbyn falls on his sword or is fatally wounded. A majority of Labour members either want him to leave now or just before the next election, I cannot see him leading Labour then, Eagle or McDonnell are more likely
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.
Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.
Possibly, but it was buried under the bigger storm. Maybe Justine or Amber then.
Possibly Greening. Her penance at DfID has lasted too long. I don't really rate Rudd. Her unwarranted attack on Boris and her terrible record at energy have not helped her.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
In the yougov members poll Eagle was second favoured after Jarvis to replace Corbyn and did better than Watson and Jarvis head to head against Corbyn.
In 1987 Kinnock increased the Labour voteshare by 3.2% after the 1983 loss and in 1992 by 3.6%, Ed Miliband only increased the Labour voteshare by 1.3% in 2015 so your point there is wrong. In terms of seats Michael Howard gained 33 seats in 2005 too, Miliband lost 26. In fact in terms of seat losses Miliband did even worse than Hague who gained 1 seat in 2001 and Gaitskill who in 1959 lost 19 seats. In terms of seat losses he was the worst postwar opposition leader after Foot who lost 52 seats
Yes, EdM is the second worst leader of a major political party since WW2. Unfortunately, the worst replaced him.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I don't think Eagle will win but she could make it close enough Corbyn falls on his sword or is fatally wounded. A majority of Labour members either want him to leave now or just before the next election, I cannot see him leading Labour then, Eagle or McDonnell are more likely
If three score of resignations from the Shad Cab and an overwhelming no confidence vote don't fatally wound him it's hard to see what will.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Good idea. Or Boris for DCMS. He'd love it. Maybe a bigger job later.
@Sean_Kemp: Leadsom needs a way to calm the contest down a bit and stop the personal focus on her. Good job she doesn't have to publish her tax ret...ah
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
I'm not sure Boris will defect for that job, it will have to be one where he can do no damage but look Churchillian, the foreign office is where he can do that.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn
Maybe
@PolhomeEditor: Trident vote week after next. GMB and Unite both back renewal, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't. Interesting times.
Corbyn calls for a free vote - it passes easily and everyone realises they didn't need Labour votes after all. Then the unions go back to religiously supporting Corbyn.
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.
I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.
I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.
The Times headline is a fair representation of what Leadsom said. It was Leadsom who initiated the comparison with May, it was Leadsom who put an emphasis on the word "children". It was Leadsom who complained after the Times accurately reported what she said, and published the audio recording to prove it. It is Leadsom who is not qualified, not experienced, and not suitable to be PM.
Headlines summarise, they don't quote and they don't have to (unless they use actual "" marks). "I promise if you look at it from the outside, I don't think other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos" -> Crisis? What Crisis? is legitimate, and so is the Times headline here.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
I'm not sure Boris will defect for that job, it will have to be one where he can do no damage but look Churchillian, the foreign office is where he can do that.
With his gaffe prone nature not sure FCO is a good shout.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
No way, the Lib Dem branding is toxic, they will need to rebrand themselves as Democratic Labour or something like that and get big donors like John Mills and Adil Nasir involved to bankroll them for elections so they can begin to get the message out there that they are real Labour.
Correct me where I go wrong: Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Only likely under PR and could equally see May Tories deal with Lib Labour. Leadsom Tories would probably defect to UKIP leaving them and Old Labour with a significant presence on the hard left and hard right. I still think Eagle could seriously wound Corbyn even if she does not win.
Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012
Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I don't think Eagle will win but she could make it close enough Corbyn falls on his sword or is fatally wounded. A majority of Labour members either want him to leave now or just before the next election, I cannot see him leading Labour then, Eagle or McDonnell are more likely
If three score of resignations from the Shad Cab and an overwhelming no confidence vote don't fatally wound him it's hard to see what will.
His whole argument is he still has an overwhelming mandate from members. If that mandate falls to nearer 50% than the 60% he won by that argument begins to collapse
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yep, looks that way. The unions have not only killed Labour, but also themselves. The sheer, pig headed stupidity really is quite something.
Its astonishing. If they stick with the Corbyn rump, they will never be influential again. It is either a brinksmanship strategy, or they are really quite thick.
Correct me where I go wrong: Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.
The leadership election will have Corbyn on the ballot and the members will vote him back in.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
In the yougov members poll Eagle was second favoured after Jarvis to replace Corbyn and did better than Watson and Jarvis head to head against Corbyn.
In 1987 Kinnock increased the Labour voteshare by 3.2% after the 1983 loss and in 1992 by 3.6%, Ed Miliband only increased the Labour voteshare by 1.3% in 2015 so your point there is wrong. In terms of seats Michael Howard gained 33 seats in 2005 too, Miliband lost 26. In fact in terms of seat losses Miliband did even worse than Hague who gained 1 seat in 2001 and Gaitskill who in 1959 lost 19 seats. In terms of seat losses he was the worst postwar opposition leader after Foot who lost 52 seats
Yes, EdM is the second worst leader of a major political party since WW2. Unfortunately, the worst replaced him.
Corbyn is joint worst with IDS, the latter never led his party into a general election, nor may the former
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.
I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.
I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Correct me where I go wrong: Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.
And how do you think this will come about? It needs a complete re-writing of the Labour rule book. And that ain't going to happen under Corbyn's regime. Momentum won't let him
Re big Cabinet jobs - one person will be getting the job of head of the "Brexit Department".
That has to be someone who voted Leave and also someone pretty senior - ie a current Cabinet Minister.
So surely that means it would have to be Grayling or Gove? Villiers, Patel and Whittingdale not senior enough. Only other possibilities would be Davis and Fox.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
I was sadly suggesting that months ago, but I couldn't improve on the name "Social Democratic party". If our system favoured/tolerated a spectrum then Corbyn could usefully represent the extreme left, with little power. P/S my spell checker recommends that "Corbyn" should be replaced by "Corncob". At least it got the capital "C" right.
Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?
It will probably be next year
If May wins, I don't think she'll ever pull the trigger.
So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.
Correct me where I go wrong: Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.
And how do you think this will come about? It needs a complete re-writing of the Labour rule book. And that ain't going to happen under Corbyn's regime. Momentum won't let him
Thanks, I was looking exactly for the detail of how it couldn't happen. So there is some provision in the rule book of the Labour party saying that MPs can be expelled for not supporting the Leader as prime minister candidate?
Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012
Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.
Poor old Hilary. it would have been kinder for the FBI to put her out of her misery, but now your girl is going to have to undergo trial by Donald. It'll be ugly.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
F1: still no idea what to bet on. Got some ideas but none really grab me. Mind you, may not be a bad thing given I had loads of ideas last time and they all failed
Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012
Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.
Poor old Hilary. it would have been kinder for the FBI to put her out of her misery, but now your girl is going to have to undergo trial by Donald. It'll be ugly.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps
I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.
Lots of change coming.
Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be
Hammond CofE, Davis Home Secretary, Fox or Osborne Foreign Secretary is how I see it
Davis is not coming back. Spent too long carping from the sidelines.
He endorsed May before the final ballot and the two get on well, Cameron would not have brought him back, May could well do so. He was effective as Shadow Home Secretary
Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?
It will probably be next year
If May wins, I don't think she'll ever pull the trigger.
Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?
It will probably be next year
If May wins, I don't think she'll ever pull the trigger.
She will otherwise she will be toppled but she will also do an EEA deal
Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps
I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.
Lots of change coming.
Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be
Hammond CofE, Davis Home Secretary, Fox or Osborne Foreign Secretary is how I see it
Davis is not coming back. Spent too long carping from the sidelines.
He endorsed May before the final ballot and the two get on well, Cameron would not have brought him back, May could well do so. He was effective as Shadow Home Secretary
They don't agree on issues around identity and surveillance though.
Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012
Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.
No but we still have the VP picks, the conventions and the debates to come
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Thought May was the unity candidate?
Unity between leave and remain, not the frothers and headbangers supporting Leadsom.
Mr. T, over time, political rejiggification would sort it out. But in the short term, if the runes fall nicely for the Conservatives [and there's significant doubt over that] they could plausibly win a larger majority next time.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yep, looks that way. The unions have not only killed Labour, but also themselves. The sheer, pig headed stupidity really is quite something.
Its astonishing. If they stick with the Corbyn rump, they will never be influential again. It is either a brinksmanship strategy, or they are really quite thick.
The latter. And extremely selfish. It's worth remembering that the union leaders are also subject to election and usually face their biggest rivals from the left - McCluskey especially. But there's very little interest among Corbyn supporters for Labour to be a potential party of government. The hard left do not believe in Parliamentary democracy, union leaders are watching their backs and Corbyn's coterie of comfortably off supporters among the general membership have little to lose from Tory rule so can afford to favour purity over the compromises needed to achieve power. All these groups are best left to drift off into irrelevance and obscurity. Something will emerge to take Labour's place. Unfortunately, though, it will take time and at least two more Tory GE wins.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.
Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
How many ex Labour MPs in the heartlands can you see defending their seats under a Lib Dem banner? It would be more likely to gift UKIP a viable contingent of Westminster MPs.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.
Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Oh, its a terrible idea strategically but we are where we are. Which is living through the late 70s/early 80s again, apparently.
The splitters will likely go through the courts to fight for the name and assets, if it comes to this.
So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.
Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.
Miss QC, the People's Front of Judea line will get trotted out rather a lot.
I forget who came up with it, alas, but whichever PBer coined "Bad case of the trots" after Corbyn won the leadership has proven wise as well as witty.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Indeed - it’s a very bad idea, nor could I see Farron being able to command respect from the new intake.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.
Supporting Leadsom only makes sense for Boris because he thinks she'll be out in two years and that the ball will fall out of the scrum again.
So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.
Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.
The Official Opposition is the largest party not in government. It doesn't matter if that party was formed 5 minutes ago and was created by defectors - as long as it is a properly constituted and registered political party.
Wouldn't be up to Bercow - it is a matter of the constitution and maths.
But Realist Labour would have to be confident of taking 140 to the new group to be certain.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.
Supporting Leadsom only makes sense for Boris because he thinks she'll be out in two years and that the ball will fall out of the scrum again.
But it is highly unlikely Leadsom wins, if he's on the losing side he won't do well out of it. Defect and deliver the victory to May and he gets second pick after Hammond, IMO.
Headlines summarise, they don't quote and they don't have to (unless they use actual "" marks). "I promise if you look at it from the outside, I don't think other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos" -> Crisis? What Crisis? is legitimate, and so is the Times headline here.
Of course Leadsom was saying that having children gave her an advantage over May. She produced it, unprompted, as one of the two main differences between them! Quite obviously she was presenting it as a positive, not a negative difference, for her. How on earth can anyone claim otherwise?
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.
Supporting Leadsom only makes sense for Boris because he thinks she'll be out in two years and that the ball will fall out of the scrum again.
But it is highly unlikely Leadsom wins, if he's on the losing side he won't do well out of it. Defect and deliver the victory to May and he gets second pick after Hammond, IMO.
A lot of people believe Boris is an opportunistic shit. I suppose he can't lose any more respect, and May isn't a typical Cameroon. He might get away with it.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.
Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
Surely if Boris now defected to May everyone would just fall over laughing and he would never be taken seriously again (if he ever was in the first place).
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.
Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.
Comments
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
Eagle has a much chance winning the Labour Leadership as I have..
http://labourlist.org/2016/05/construction-workers-union-ucatt-to-join-unite-after-conference-vote/
When the UCATT-Unite merger completes, what happens to Jamie Bramwell's (UCATT) NEC seat? Does it go to another union ? (Assuming Unite's membership level stays level with the annexation only offsetting continued decline)
Chancellor is out, and Home/Justice are 'tough' jobs.
Mr. Observer, self-defeating stupidity can be surprisingly commonplace. Cf the cretinous bankers buying things they didn't understand, or the imbecilic dog-walkers who let their pets befoul the paths they themselves walk [that really bloody annoys me].
F1: oddly uncertain how things will go. May be a pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey bet.
But who will get the assets, the name, etc? There is no guarantee it has to be Corbyn's lot.
Maybe split now, and regroup for 2020. Probably best for them now.
I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.
Lots of change coming.
Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be
As @SeanT says, it really does look like RIP Labour gg.
*Tongue firmly in cheek
Realist Labour should try to move en masse to the Co-operative Party - that would give them some assets to start with
@PolhomeEditor: Trident vote week after next. GMB and Unite both back renewal, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't. Interesting times.
It'd be my preference, but a Leadsom victory cannot be ruled out.
Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.
That has to be someone who voted Leave and also someone pretty senior - ie a current Cabinet Minister.
So surely that means it would have to be Grayling or Gove? Villiers, Patel and Whittingdale not senior enough. Only other possibilities would be Davis and Fox.
If our system favoured/tolerated a spectrum then Corbyn could usefully represent the extreme left, with little power.
P/S my spell checker recommends that "Corbyn" should be replaced by "Corncob". At least it got the capital "C" right.
P/S Froome now leads the Tour de France.
The splitters will likely go through the courts to fight for the name and assets, if it comes to this.
I forget who came up with it, alas, but whichever PBer coined "Bad case of the trots" after Corbyn won the leadership has proven wise as well as witty.
Wouldn't be up to Bercow - it is a matter of the constitution and maths.
But Realist Labour would have to be confident of taking 140 to the new group to be certain.
POTUS contest .. Conservative party contest .. Labour party contest .. UKIP party contest .. Green party contest .. Hersham sex party contest ....
:-)