Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Thought May was the unity candidate?
Unity between leave and remain, not the frothers and headbangers supporting Leadsom.
I don't see Villiers as a headbanger. If May can't even give her a job then she's not the unity candidate she claims to be.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
I see Len McCluskey is on the warpath and demanding Watson's head on a spike. Going to be an acrimonious race for sure.
McCluskey sounds panicky. Maybe not so sure which way the NEC will swing.
I do wonder what his actual members think? Do they really want Corbyn to continue running the Labour Party into oblivion and thereby guaranteeing a free run for ever for Tories on workers rights etc etc?
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Thought May was the unity candidate?
Unity between leave and remain, not the frothers and headbangers supporting Leadsom.
I don't see Villiers as a headbanger. If May can't even give her a job then she's not the unity candidate she claims to be.
So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.
Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.
The Official Opposition is the largest party not in government. It doesn't matter if that party was formed 5 minutes ago and was created by defectors - as long as it is a properly constituted and registered political party.
Wouldn't be up to Bercow - it is a matter of the constitution and maths.
But Realist Labour would have to be confident of taking 140 to the new group to be certain.
Does it have to be a single party? Can it be a coalition? Suppose they fall short. Couldn't Realist Labour form a coalition with LibDems to form an Official Opposition?
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
What have you seen of Boris makes you think he will knuckle down. Lol.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
Working for and with large companies has taught me that whatever you're selling can always be used to beat other people over the head.
Big IT deals used to settle the customer's internal rivalries and so on. I was sometimes surprised to win a deal purely on the basis of internal politics rather than the merits of my case.
I think its now clear, the national leaders appear to want to clip the commission's wings.
I see Len McCluskey is on the warpath and demanding Watson's head on a spike. Going to be an acrimonious race for sure.
McCluskey sounds panicky. Maybe not so sure which way the NEC will swing.
I do wonder what his actual members think? Do they really want Corbyn to continue running the Labour Party into oblivion and thereby guaranteeing a free run for ever for Tories on workers rights etc etc?
Len only cares about the small percentage of Unite members that vote in the union's leadership election. He needs to keep them onside to keep his £150,000 a year and all expenses paid trips to Las Vegas.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Thought May was the unity candidate?
Unity between leave and remain, not the frothers and headbangers supporting Leadsom.
I don't see Villiers as a headbanger. If May can't even give her a job then she's not the unity candidate she claims to be.
She'll get a job, not a promotion.
Northern Ireland is pretty much as low as you can go in the Cabinet.
So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.
Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.
The Official Opposition is the largest party not in government. It doesn't matter if that party was formed 5 minutes ago and was created by defectors - as long as it is a properly constituted and registered political party.
Wouldn't be up to Bercow - it is a matter of the constitution and maths.
But Realist Labour would have to be confident of taking 140 to the new group to be certain.
Does it have to be a single party? Can it be a coalition? Suppose they fall short. Couldn't Realist Labour form a coalition with LibDems to form an Official Opposition?
I can't imagine how that would work unless there was a formal alliance. And I can't see the LDs going for one of those again - certainly not this Parliament
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
The British are very good at fudges. All sounds doable to me.
That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.
The party will have to split
Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.
The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.
That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.
I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?
Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.
The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.
Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?
That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.
Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.
An informal one. Not standing candidates in each other's strong areas would be a good idea. If the Tories lose their overall majority a change to PR could be put to a referendum. Only the Tories would oppose. That would change everything. But it's going to take time.
Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.
Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.
I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.
Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.
Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.
Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.
What have you seen of Boris makes you think he will knuckle down. Lol.
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.
I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.
No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.
Thought May was the unity candidate?
Unity between leave and remain, not the frothers and headbangers supporting Leadsom.
I don't see Villiers as a headbanger. If May can't even give her a job then she's not the unity candidate she claims to be.
She'll get a job, not a promotion.
Northern Ireland is pretty much as low as you can go in the Cabinet.
I see Len McCluskey is on the warpath and demanding Watson's head on a spike. Going to be an acrimonious race for sure.
McCluskey sounds panicky. Maybe not so sure which way the NEC will swing.
I do wonder what his actual members think? Do they really want Corbyn to continue running the Labour Party into oblivion and thereby guaranteeing a free run for ever for Tories on workers rights etc etc?
Len only cares about the small percentage of Unite members that vote in the union's leadership election. He needs to keep them onside to keep his £150,000 a year and all expenses paid trips to Las Vegas.
Not a very fraternal post. The repeated attacks on Corbyn seem to be making him ever stronger and nobler. He's fast developing an eerie patriarchal authority.
Corbyn is actually worse than IDS. At least IDS had the decency to resign. Corbyn is determined to lead the Labour party to oblivion.
IDS didn't resign he was fired. Losing a vote of confidence in the Tories = You're Fired!
Plus it means you're barred from standing in the new election too. So he had literally no choice in the matter whatsoever, he clung on until he was forced out.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
... but no extra £350m per week for the NHS.
..."the price we have to pay to quell the 48%". It's fudgetastic.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
As a grand strategy for a great nation, it's all a bit crap though, isn't it?
Yes. But remember: the EU is crap as well. Indeed crappier.
Jonathan Sumption was on r4 this morning having just finished his history of the 100 years war, saying losing it was the best thing we ever did because if we'd won, we'd have won France which was so much bigger it would have done a gradual reverse takeover of us and we'd all now be speaking French.
Not sure, having typed that, what it tells us about anything.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yes, that's pretty much what we're looking at, and in the process we'll be out of ECJ jurisdiction and have control over our own laws again. It's a good halfway house that will capture 40% of the remain side and 25% of the leave side. Only the 25% of immigration frothers and 10% federalists will be unhappy which gives UKIP a ceiling of 25% in the short term and the Lib Dems a ceiling of 10% as the party in favour of re-entry including the Euro, Schengen and ever closer union.
@rottenborough I always think of what Ralph Miliband is (alleged) to have said on the Labour party: that they will always let down the working class. His predictions have proven to be incredibly true.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
dont disagree with that, there wont be a full on out.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
FWIW my voting patterns at the various Conservative party leadership elections.
In 2001 I voted for IDS as he wasn't Ken Clarke.
In 2005 I voted for Cameron which was a power over principles vote I.e I much preferred Davis and originally intended to vote for him but Cameron as the campaign went on increasingly appeared more electable and if you are not in power principles are worth nothing.
In 2016 if there was a general election coming up then I would have adopted the same approach as 2005 I.e. May feels inherently more electable than Leadsom by some distance.
However we don't need a general election until 2020 and the key thing the next PM needs to do is get us out of the EU I.e some restrictions to freedom of movement and disentangling us from the whole EU political apparatus.
My worry is that May was front and centre part of the great establishment cover up over the real level of immigration and she, despite I suspect some pretty euro sceptic views, decided to support remain. So she will tack towards the establishment status quo in any negotiation. Leadsom voted for leave and I trust her to deliver a bigger percentage (albeit not all) of the wishes of the 17m who voted for leave. So I will be voting for Leadsom.
Note I do recognise that in two years time we may need another PM to win the next general election but by them the EU departure will be sorted.
I don't know how many other members feel the same way as me (I suspect there is a very wide spectrum) but I wouldn't underestimate the worry about May in many quarters (in particular the further you get from London and the older you get) and also the "free hit" of going down the Leadsom route given the conservatives are already in power which is attractive to the right wing of the party.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
Yes, can't wait to read the Daily Mail harrumph in a few years about those rotten EU members making a decision that will affect us but without bothering to consult us.
Mr. P, C4 news can be bloody weird. Still remember Jon Snow whining about Soviet-style censorship because of the D-notice about not reporting where Prince Harry was on the front lines.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
I think most people would be very happy with that outcome. It would certainly work for me, though I am sceptical about the trade deals.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
Richer and happier? You been on the juice? The shit is just about being ejected from the rectum and still a fair bit from the fan.
We've made a crass decision - we need to move on with the realisation that we as a people will be poorer, less tolerant, less influential and less relevant than before. I hope Leadsom wins and owns the calamity that is Brexit.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
Indeed, we would not be affected by directives and regulations outside the single market though we would largely retain free movement. For me I would have few complaints, although I voted Remain I may even have preferred such a deal to staying in the EU, the working class and lower middle class voters who voted Leave may not be so happy though and it probably would ensure UKIP get 20-25% of the vote for at least the next two general elections
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
The influence thing is interesting. I think we'd be well placed to start working at the WTO level rather than just banging our heads against a brick wall in Europe. There are some interesting foreign policy options.
I did read one interesting view that the Brexit would solve the Turkish problem. That's not a rerun of '78 Muslimics are coming to eat our babies', rather that Turkey is schizophrenic as to whether it wants to join or not, and several EU countries are adamantly opposed. The Turks might see that its not worth the candle.
Having the EU27 book-ended by two strong NATO countries also appeals to my sense of symmetry
PS on trade deals. CETA was agreed in September 2014. It still isn't ratified. The EU are slooooow at these things.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
What about Brits who want to work in, or move to, EU countries?
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
Yes, can't wait to read the Daily Mail harrumph in a few years about those rotten EU members making a decision that will affect us but without bothering to consult us.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
Richer and happier? You been on the juice? The shit is just about being ejected from the rectum and still a fair bit from the fan.
We've made a crass decision - we need to move on with the realisation that we as a people will be poorer, less tolerant, less influential and less relevant than before. I hope Leadsom wins and owns the calamity that is Brexit.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
What about Brits who want to work in, or move to, EU countries?
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yep, it'll be something like that. It would also mean accepting the jurisdiction of the ECJ in all trade-related areas and maybe being called an associate member of the EU. We'd lose all influence over decision making.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
But we'd remove the ECJ from many other areas of our life, and we'd be free to do trade deals around the world.
In the end I think we'd end up richer and happier than if we'd stayed in the EU, despite the initial shock and pain. Though we would lose some "influence". Hey ho.
Richer and happier? You been on the juice? The shit is just about being ejected from the rectum and still a fair bit from the fan.
We've made a crass decision - we need to move on with the realisation that we as a people will be poorer, less tolerant, less influential and less relevant than before. I hope Leadsom wins and owns the calamity that is Brexit.
It is a best-case scenario to think the UK can go into negotiations and get everything it wants, both single market access and no freedom of movement, and to force the other EU countries to cave on their main negotiating position.
It's realpolitik. The EU Commission can say what it likes, but in the end if Paris, Rome and Berlin want to talk to London - and clearly they do - then that is what will happen.
And with Barrosso taking a job at Goldman Sachs in London, no doubt the Commission will get the inside track on how the City is viewing things.
I'm going to make a bold and absurd prediction.
May will win. She will swiftly move to a kind of EEA+ situation. The UK will retain full access to the Single Market. We will agree to pay a very hefty contribution - probably more than Norway per capita - but a few million less than we do now; in return we will get qualified free movement: only people with job offers can move to the UK, and we have an emergency brake.
Everyone will be half satisfied, but no more than that. We will be still be closely linked to the EU, pacifying the REMAINIANS. We will be out of CAP, CFP, much of the acquis, pacifying the sovereigntists. Immigration will come down and we will have much more migration control (but not total), pacifying the migration-worriers. The City will survive.
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
Yes, that's pretty much what we're looking at, and in the process we'll be out of ECJ jurisdiction and have control over our own laws again. It's a good halfway house that will capture 40% of the remain side and 25% of the leave side. Only the 25% of immigration frothers and 10% federalists will be unhappy which gives UKIP a ceiling of 25% in the short term and the Lib Dems a ceiling of 10% as the party in favour of re-entry including the Euro, Schengen and ever closer union.
The picture you both paint is quite a happy one. Of course at the moment it's still a fantasy, and one that couldn't be achieved till 2020 at the soonest, I'd imagine. At what cost in the meantime? is the problem.
And if the Tories elect Leadsom, I think all bets are off. She'll want to act more quickly but Brexit will actually be slower under her leadership because of the extra opposition that she'll engender. Indeed, there has to be a possibility of a successful vote for an early general election if she's PM. Then who knows what Brexit will look like after that...
I did read one interesting view that the Brexit would solve the Turkish problem. That's not a rerun of '78 Muslimics are coming to eat our babies', rather that Turkey is schizophrenic as to whether it wants to join or not, and several EU countries are adamantly opposed. The Turks might see that its not worth the candle.
Having the EU27 book-ended by two strong NATO countries also appeals to my sense of symmetry
I'm not sure I agree on the Turkish question. At present it's pretty clear that true membership isn't going to happen but if the UK were outside the EU with a deal approximating membership it might make demands from Turkey for something similar more acute.
As for NATO, its days are surely numbered (even more so if Trump wins).
It will be a fudge. But one that most of the country will tolerate, perhaps relieved that Doomsday has been averted.
As a grand strategy for a great nation, it's all a bit crap though, isn't it?
Yes. But remember: the EU is crap as well. Indeed crappier.
Jonathan Sumption was on r4 this morning having just finished his history of the 100 years war, saying losing it was the best thing we ever did because if we'd won, we'd have won France which was so much bigger it would have done a gradual reverse takeover of us and we'd all now be speaking French.
Not sure, having typed that, what it tells us about anything.
Yep, listened to that, 'twas interesting. He ended up saying that that alternate England would have eventually ended up fighting a war of independence to escape absorption into the larger entity.
It is a best-case scenario to think the UK can go into negotiations and get everything it wants, both single market access and no freedom of movement, and to force the other EU countries to cave on their main negotiating position.
Yes but May is at least prepared to try and having said today she will accept 'controlled freedom of movement' will likely get a deal, Leadsom will not as she has said she will end freedom of movement
@alexmassie: So - have I got this right? - the Leadsom Truthers are circulating a faked tweet purportedly from The Times apologising for today's story?
@alexmassie: They have! Here it is. Not faked at all. Of course if The Times fails to "deny" this tweet that means it's true too. https://t.co/GXZe4Htbnh
Then they did a vox pop with a group of mothers in Chingford. All of them would vote May (although not clear if any of them have a vote)
In my straw poll of one (my mother) the result was 100% May. My mother can't stand Leadsom (and has voted Tory in the past - she voted for John Major in 1992).
If the main party leaders are going to be Corbyn and Leadsom, you'd have about 420 MPs from Con and Lab who don't support their leader.
Which is why the leadership rules in both parties are untenable, daft and have to be changed.
Con and Lab must both move to an Electoral College - 50% MPs, 50% members.
This is perfect as it means members still have a say - and a significant say - but if MPs overwhelmingly want / don't want someone then it is incredibly unlikely that members could over-ride their wishes.
I did read one interesting view that the Brexit would solve the Turkish problem. That's not a rerun of '78 Muslimics are coming to eat our babies', rather that Turkey is schizophrenic as to whether it wants to join or not, and several EU countries are adamantly opposed. The Turks might see that its not worth the candle.
Having the EU27 book-ended by two strong NATO countries also appeals to my sense of symmetry
I'm not sure I agree on the Turkish question. At present it's pretty clear that true membership isn't going to happen but if the UK were outside the EU with a deal approximating membership it might make demands from Turkey for something similar more acute.
As for NATO, its days are surely numbered (even more so if Trump wins).
I think Sean's scenario is a little optimistic. However, I like Sunny Sean a lot better than Quakin' in ma boots Sean, so I'm keeping Mum .
It is a best-case scenario to think the UK can go into negotiations and get everything it wants, both single market access and no freedom of movement, and to force the other EU countries to cave on their main negotiating position.
Yes but May is at least prepared to try and having said today she will accept 'controlled freedom of movement' will likely get a deal, Leadsom will not as she has said she will end freedom of movement
Leadsom's also said that the single market is in all our interests. The main difference I see between them is the starting bid in negotiations on freedom of movement: May will start from the status quo and look for what can be 'controlled' (or simply made subject to Home Office bureaucracy) whereas Leadsom will start from the position that the rEU is put on the same basis as the US, Australia, etc.
If the answer to any question is Angela Eagle, then you are asking the wrong questions.
Who would be less crap than Jeremy Corbyn?
The Eagles represent all that is woeful about affirmative action and tick-box diversity targets. Neither of them have any discernible talent in the field of politics. They are not articulate, they do not inspire, they have no clear positions.
I actually think Eagle would be a worse leader than Corbyn. She is not even a political lightweight. Over-promoted because of what she is not what she has achieved or can do.
How can Leadsom complain about The Times' reporting when what she has said is on tape for everyone to hear?
It looks completely absurd.
Nevertheless, many will be convinced. Remainstream media, the establishment, etc. Personally I think her assertions don't stand up, even if we're charitable and accept she had no intention to be mean.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid. Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.
An informal one. Not standing candidates in each other's strong areas would be a good idea. If the Tories lose their overall majority a change to PR could be put to a referendum. Only the Tories would oppose. That would change everything. But it's going to take time.
No more referendums, Mr Observer. They should all put STV in the manifesto, and implement it immediately, as an election commitment. Job done.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid. Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.
An informal one. Not standing candidates in each other's strong areas would be a good idea. If the Tories lose their overall majority a change to PR could be put to a referendum. Only the Tories would oppose. That would change everything. But it's going to take time.
No more referendums, Mr Observer. They should all put STV in the manifesto, and implement it immediately, as an election commitment. Job done.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.
Is there any real talent left in the Labour movement? Any at all?
Looking at their past, I may have disagreed with pretty much everything they ever stood for, but I could respect them as political operators or impressive speakers. There is none of that on the Labour benches now. Just poseurs, placeholders and petty protesters.
But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid. Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.
Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.
The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.
An informal one. Not standing candidates in each other's strong areas would be a good idea. If the Tories lose their overall majority a change to PR could be put to a referendum. Only the Tories would oppose. That would change everything. But it's going to take time.
No more referendums, Mr Observer. They should all put STV in the manifesto, and implement it immediately, as an election commitment. Job done.
Having rejected one electoral reform package, it would be unthinkable to attempt another change without mass support through a referendum.
Is there any real talent left in the Labour movement? Any at all?
Looking at their past, I may have disagreed with pretty much everything they ever stood for, but I could respect them as political operators or impressive speakers. There is none of that on the Labour benches now. Just poseurs, placeholders and petty protesters.
It's a compromise, but it will be in the interests of all to compromise. Both sides will be able to say they got a good deal. May could say "look we're liberated from the EU without doing too much damage", the EU could say "look the idiot Brits have no more influence on decision making but they're still having to pay"
Wouldn't it smack of the same type of con as Cameron's 'the proles will believe anything' renegotiation?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.
It is a best-case scenario to think the UK can go into negotiations and get everything it wants, both single market access and no freedom of movement, and to force the other EU countries to cave on their main negotiating position.
Yes but May is at least prepared to try and having said today she will accept 'controlled freedom of movement' will likely get a deal, Leadsom will not as she has said she will end freedom of movement
Both sides will be able to say they got a good deal.
That is the key to getting as much as we possibly can of what we want (personally I don't care about FOM, but most people do) - it's all very well saying that we'll be able to get everything we want from them, or that it is in their best interests, as even if it is, they need to be able to sell it to their own people too, and that means we need to be perceived as bending just as they will need to on our end.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.
Comments
Big IT deals used to settle the customer's internal rivalries and so on. I was sometimes surprised to win a deal purely on the basis of internal politics rather than the merits of my case.
I think its now clear, the national leaders appear to want to clip the commission's wings.
"Earlier, shadow home secretary Andy Burnham said the party's priority now "should not be to descend into civil war"."
So, he'll be calling for Civil War by about 7 o'clock tonight then.
... but no extra £350m per week for the NHS.
The British are very good at fudges. All sounds doable to me.
The repeated attacks on Corbyn seem to be making him ever stronger and nobler. He's fast developing an eerie patriarchal authority.
Plus it means you're barred from standing in the new election too. So he had literally no choice in the matter whatsoever, he clung on until he was forced out.
Edited extra bit: just checked my potential bets. I like none of them. ....
Not sure, having typed that, what it tells us about anything.
@rottenborough I always think of what Ralph Miliband is (alleged) to have said on the Labour party: that they will always let down the working class. His predictions have proven to be incredibly true.
Work visas granted in the UK or do you have to return home to get one?
Well worth the division and economic problems Brexit is delivering :-)
In 2001 I voted for IDS as he wasn't Ken Clarke.
In 2005 I voted for Cameron which was a power over principles vote I.e I much preferred Davis and originally intended to vote for him but Cameron as the campaign went on increasingly appeared more electable and if you are not in power principles are worth nothing.
In 2016 if there was a general election coming up then I would have adopted the same approach as 2005 I.e. May feels inherently more electable than Leadsom by some distance.
However we don't need a general election until 2020 and the key thing the next PM needs to do is get us out of the EU I.e some restrictions to freedom of movement and disentangling us from the whole EU political apparatus.
My worry is that May was front and centre part of the great establishment cover up over the real level of immigration and she, despite I suspect some pretty euro sceptic views, decided to support remain. So she will tack towards the establishment status quo in any negotiation. Leadsom voted for leave and I trust her to deliver a bigger percentage (albeit not all) of the wishes of the 17m who voted for leave. So I will be voting for Leadsom.
Note I do recognise that in two years time we may need another PM to win the next general election but by them the EU departure will be sorted.
I don't know how many other members feel the same way as me (I suspect there is a very wide spectrum) but I wouldn't underestimate the worry about May in many quarters (in particular the further you get from London and the older you get) and also the "free hit" of going down the Leadsom route given the conservatives are already in power which is attractive to the right wing of the party.
Betting PostF1: behold! The pre-race piece literally some of you may have been vaguely aware was due to be posted is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/united-kingdom-pre-race-2016.html
No wonder people say he knows nothing.
We've made a crass decision - we need to move on with the realisation that we as a people will be poorer, less tolerant, less influential and less relevant than before. I hope Leadsom wins and owns the calamity that is Brexit.
I did read one interesting view that the Brexit would solve the Turkish problem. That's not a rerun of '78 Muslimics are coming to eat our babies', rather that Turkey is schizophrenic as to whether it wants to join or not, and several EU countries are adamantly opposed. The Turks might see that its not worth the candle.
Having the EU27 book-ended by two strong NATO countries also appeals to my sense of symmetry
PS on trade deals. CETA was agreed in September 2014. It still isn't ratified. The EU are slooooow at these things.
Under QMV that pretty much happens right now.
Then they did a vox pop with a group of mothers in Chingford. All of them would vote May (although not clear if any of them have a vote)
@PolhomeEditor: Tim Roache of the GMB effusive in praising Jeremy Corbyn at Durham Miners Gala. "That's not what he's saying in private," says one MP.
And if the Tories elect Leadsom, I think all bets are off. She'll want to act more quickly but Brexit will actually be slower under her leadership because of the extra opposition that she'll engender. Indeed, there has to be a possibility of a successful vote for an early general election if she's PM. Then who knows what Brexit will look like after that...
As for NATO, its days are surely numbered (even more so if Trump wins).
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/751775478059458560
He ended up saying that that alternate England would have eventually ended up fighting a war of independence to escape absorption into the larger entity.
It's only taken 600 years..
That is not leadership.
If the answer to any question is Angela Eagle, then you are asking the wrong questions.
@alexmassie: They have! Here it is. Not faked at all. Of course if The Times fails to "deny" this tweet that means it's true too. https://t.co/GXZe4Htbnh
Con and Lab must both move to an Electoral College - 50% MPs, 50% members.
This is perfect as it means members still have a say - and a significant say - but if MPs overwhelmingly want / don't want someone then it is incredibly unlikely that members could over-ride their wishes.
It looks completely absurd.
I actually think Eagle would be a worse leader than Corbyn. She is not even a political lightweight. Over-promoted because of what she is not what she has achieved or can do.
https://party.coop/lists/members-of-parliament/
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
So now Leadsom supporters are circulating a fake tweet pretending The Times has apologised for its article.
"I got 172 problems but a leadership election ain't one".
Is there any real talent left in the Labour movement? Any at all?
Looking at their past, I may have disagreed with pretty much everything they ever stood for, but I could respect them as political operators or impressive speakers. There is none of that on the Labour benches now. Just poseurs, placeholders and petty protesters.
@DocBastard: *drops microphone* #antivax #vaccineswork #VaccinateYourKids http://t.co/1Nysbfkh7N
and the uncharitable thought occurs, I wonder if Mrs Leadsom, the Christian, the mother, is an MMR truther?
[ducks]