politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/

Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/

So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom

Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?

It will probably be next year

MaxPB said:

ToryJim said:

nunu said:

Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.

Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.


And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.

I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.

Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.

Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.

There are some big questions facing the incoming prime minister, that much is clear.

If Leadsom wins, I'll vote for Corbyn as the lesser of two evils. He'll be too incompetent to do much wrong. Leadsom will never win a GE as she harks back 30 years in social matters.

Eagle has a much chance winning the Labour Leadership as I have..

I thought Watson's statement was a bit too good to be true. Clearly, the unions have decided to kill Labour off. The self-defeating stupidity is quite mind-boggling.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Theuniondivvie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a shambles....

If ever the prefix 'omni' was appropriate..

The SNP must think it's Christmas!

TWS, all their Christmas's at once, Westminster lining up to kick Scotland at every turn , you could not make it up.

Any Labour experts here?

http://labourlist.org/2016/05/construction-workers-union-ucatt-to-join-unite-after-conference-vote/

When the UCATT-Unite merger completes, what happens to Jamie Bramwell's (UCATT) NEC seat? Does it go to another union ? (Assuming Unite's membership level stays level with the annexation only offsetting continued decline)

surbiton said:

JohnLoony said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

First results of my straw poll are in:

19 responses.

May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3

Leave 10
Remain 9

Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.

Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.

I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.

I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.

The Times headline is a fair representation of what Leadsom said. It was Leadsom who initiated the comparison with May, it was Leadsom who put an emphasis on the word "children". It was Leadsom who complained after the Times accurately reported what she said, and published the audio recording to prove it. It is Leadsom who is not qualified, not experienced, and not suitable to be PM.

Jobabob said:

@SouthamObserver

Could David Cameron have done one last favour to the centrists with the timing of the Trident vote.

Unions are strongly pro Trident

Looking at that Len McCluskey statement it's clear the game is up for Labour. The party will split and FPTP will then wreak havoc on both sides for an election or two. It had to happen though. It's impossible for the hard left to compromise, so it can't be part of a broad church party.

nunu said:

ToryJim said:

nunu said:

Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.

Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.


And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.

I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.

I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.

No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.

ToryJim said:

MaxPB said:

ToryJim said:

nunu said:

Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.

Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.


And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.

I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.

Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.

Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.

Possibly, but it was buried under the bigger storm. Maybe Justine or Amber then.

Possibly Greening. Her penance at DfID has lasted too long. I don't really rate Rudd. Her unwarranted attack on Boris and her terrible record at energy have not helped her.

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

But who will get the assets, the name, etc? There is no guarantee it has to be Corbyn's lot.

Maybe split now, and regroup for 2020. Probably best for them now.

Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps

I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.

Lots of change coming.

Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I don't think Eagle will win but she could make it close enough Corbyn falls on his sword or is fatally wounded. A majority of Labour members either want him to leave now or just before the next election, I cannot see him leading Labour then, Eagle or McDonnell are more likely

If three score of resignations from the Shad Cab and an overwhelming no confidence vote don't fatally wound him it's hard to see what will.

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

But who will get the assets, the name, etc? There is no guarantee it has to be Corbyn's lot.

Maybe split now, and regroup for 2020. Probably best for them now.

It will all end in tears and in the courts.

Realist Labour should try to move en masse to the Co-operative Party - that would give them some assets to start with

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn

Maybe


@PolhomeEditor: Trident vote week after next. GMB and Unite both back renewal, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't. Interesting times.

@Sean_Kemp: Leadsom needs a way to calm the contest down a bit and stop the personal focus on her. Good job she doesn't have to publish her tax ret...ah

ToryJim said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.

Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.

I'm not sure Boris will defect for that job, it will have to be one where he can do no damage but look Churchillian, the foreign office is where he can do that.

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Corbyn has the happy knack of winning, hasn't he. Labour's got a good'n.

MaxPB said:

ToryJim said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.

Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.

I'm not sure Boris will defect for that job, it will have to be one where he can do no damage but look Churchillian, the foreign office is where he can do that.

With his gaffe prone nature not sure FCO is a good shout.

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

No way, the Lib Dem branding is toxic, they will need to rebrand themselves as Democratic Labour or something like that and get big donors like John Mills and Adil Nasir involved to bankroll them for elections so they can begin to get the message out there that they are real Labour.

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Only likely under PR and could equally see May Tories deal with Lib Labour. Leadsom Tories would probably defect to UKIP leaving them and Old Labour with a significant presence on the hard left and hard right. I still think Eagle could seriously wound Corbyn even if she does not win.

ToryJim said:

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I don't think Eagle will win but she could make it close enough Corbyn falls on his sword or is fatally wounded. A majority of Labour members either want him to leave now or just before the next election, I cannot see him leading Labour then, Eagle or McDonnell are more likely

If three score of resignations from the Shad Cab and an overwhelming no confidence vote don't fatally wound him it's hard to see what will.

His whole argument is he still has an overwhelming mandate from members. If that mandate falls to nearer 50% than the 60% he won by that argument begins to collapse

EPG said:

Correct me where I go wrong:
Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.

The leadership election will have Corbyn on the ballot and the members will vote him back in.

oxfordsimon said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.

surbiton said:

JohnLoony said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

First results of my straw poll are in:

19 responses.

May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3

Leave 10
Remain 9

Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.

Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.

I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.

I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.

I think you could be right.

EPG said:

Correct me where I go wrong:
Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.

And how do you think this will come about? It needs a complete re-writing of the Labour rule book. And that ain't going to happen under Corbyn's regime. Momentum won't let him

SouthamObserver said:

oxfordsimon said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.

Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/

Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/

So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom

Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?

It will probably be next year

If May wins, I don't think she'll ever pull the trigger.

oxfordsimon said:

EPG said:

Correct me where I go wrong:
Labour will elect a head of the parliamentary labour party and prime-minister-candidate. That person will, unlike Mr Corbyn, command the support of a substantial number of MPs and be entitled to be leader of the opposition and to be considered by HM The Queen as prime minister in the event of a 380-seat Labour victory (erm). A formal split is not required.

And how do you think this will come about? It needs a complete re-writing of the Labour rule book. And that ain't going to happen under Corbyn's regime. Momentum won't let him

Thanks, I was looking exactly for the detail of how it couldn't happen. So there is some provision in the rule book of the Labour party saying that MPs can be expelled for not supporting the Leader as prime minister candidate?

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps

I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.

Lots of change coming.

Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be

Hammond CofE, Davis Home Secretary, Fox or Osborne Foreign Secretary is how I see it

Davis is not coming back. Spent too long carping from the sidelines.

nunu said:

MaxPB said:

nunu said:

ToryJim said:

nunu said:

Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.

Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.


And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.

I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.

I think Villiers hasn't come out too badly in all this she should be foreign and leave Gove at justice, he is doing important work.

No way, Villiers is Leadsom's camp, May will have to reward her supporters first. Villiers will be lucky to hold on to her current NI brief IMO.

Thought May was the unity candidate?

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012

Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.

Poor old Hilary. it would have been kinder for the FBI to put her out of her misery, but now your girl is going to have to undergo trial by Donald. It'll be ugly.

But she'll win.

P/S Froome now leads the Tour de France.

ToryJim said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps

I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.

Lots of change coming.

Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be

Hammond CofE, Davis Home Secretary, Fox or Osborne Foreign Secretary is how I see it

Davis is not coming back. Spent too long carping from the sidelines.

Sidelines is charitable. He's been nowhere.

ToryJim said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

Having spotted David Davis hugging May at Thursday's event, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return to the front line - Party Chair perhaps

I expect Patel to be rewarded with something juicy for her support.

Lots of change coming.

Assuming Loathsom is roundly defeated as she deserves to be

Hammond CofE, Davis Home Secretary, Fox or Osborne Foreign Secretary is how I see it

Davis is not coming back. Spent too long carping from the sidelines.

Yeah and Osborne is finished now, two of the top four to be women and a third women in cabinet.

Mr. HYUFD, shade volatile, though, to throw a needless hissyfit and lose himself a frontbench role.

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/

Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/

So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom

Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?

It will probably be next year

If May wins, I don't think she'll ever pull the trigger.

She will otherwise she will be toppled but she will also do an EEA deal

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Interesting, so Trump wins Ohio and Nevada but loses NC. That would mean Hillary wins 323 to 215 which would be closer than the 332 to 206 by which Obama beat Romney. At the moment Hillary is ahead but even now this election is likely to be closer than 2008 and 2012

Small samples and early days yet. Something there for Trump too but the essentials remain the same. Trump need to near run the table and is nowhere near that prospect presently.

No but we still have the VP picks, the conventions and the debates to come

Mr. T, over time, political rejiggification would sort it out. But in the short term, if the runes fall nicely for the Conservatives [and there's significant doubt over that] they could plausibly win a larger majority next time.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yep, looks that way. The unions have not only killed Labour, but also themselves. The sheer, pig headed stupidity really is quite something.

Its astonishing. If they stick with the Corbyn rump, they will never be influential again. It is either a brinksmanship strategy, or they are really quite thick.

The latter. And extremely selfish. It's worth remembering that the union leaders are also subject to election and usually face their biggest rivals from the left - McCluskey especially. But there's very little interest among Corbyn supporters for Labour to be a potential party of government. The hard left do not believe in Parliamentary democracy, union leaders are watching their backs and Corbyn's coterie of comfortably off supporters among the general membership have little to lose from Tory rule so can afford to favour purity over the compromises needed to achieve power. All these groups are best left to drift off into irrelevance and obscurity. Something will emerge to take Labour's place. Unfortunately, though, it will take time and at least two more Tory GE wins.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

SouthamObserver said:

oxfordsimon said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.

Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?

That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.

But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.

Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.

How many ex Labour MPs in the heartlands can you see defending their seats under a Lib Dem banner? It would be more likely to gift UKIP a viable contingent of Westminster MPs.

BigIan said:

So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.

Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.

SouthamObserver said:

oxfordsimon said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.

Indeed - it’s a very bad idea, nor could I see Farron being able to command respect from the new intake.

rottenborough said:

BigIan said:

So... If the PLP rebels break away and form a completely new party, would they become the official opposition? Assuming the numbers support it, of course.

Does anyone know the answer to this? Even constitutional experts? I'm guessing the power rests with the Speaker, who would then need to be protected every time he left the building from Momentum nutters.

The Official Opposition is the largest party not in government. It doesn't matter if that party was formed 5 minutes ago and was created by defectors - as long as it is a properly constituted and registered political party.

Wouldn't be up to Bercow - it is a matter of the constitution and maths.

But Realist Labour would have to be confident of taking 140 to the new group to be certain.

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

nunu said:

ToryJim said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.

Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.

Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.

Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.

If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.

Supporting Leadsom only makes sense for Boris because he thinks she'll be out in two years and that the ball will fall out of the scrum again.

But it is highly unlikely Leadsom wins, if he's on the losing side he won't do well out of it. Defect and deliver the victory to May and he gets second pick after Hammond, IMO.

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

nunu said:

ToryJim said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, not sure I can see Boris as Foreign Secretary. Maybe Culture.

Mr. HYUFD, would've thought the odds are Corbyn wins and 170 odd Labour MPs either go into an election being asked why the public should back a man for PM when 80%+ of Labour MPs don't want him, or they split.

I think May will try and buy Boris off with a big job, like him or not Boris still commands a lot of respect among the rank and file, if he were to switch allegiance and say he doesn't have confidence in Leadsom to deliver as PM then May will wrap it up. He then gets to repair his reputation at the foreign office and line up a bid for party leader when May stands down.

Bojo for Co-Chairman with a decent administrator to do the heavy lifting. He could then spend 4 years rallying the troops.

Boris wanted to be leader and that's it. He won't settle for co-chairman. Lol.

Who knows. Could go either way. If he's in the 'never give up' mode of thinking he could buckle down and work his ticket for five or so years and see where things are. Or he could flounce out at Xmas to be editor of the Daily Telegraph.

If ge still wants it then he will have to defect to May.

Supporting Leadsom only makes sense for Boris because he thinks she'll be out in two years and that the ball will fall out of the scrum again.

But it is highly unlikely Leadsom wins, if he's on the losing side he won't do well out of it. Defect and deliver the victory to May and he gets second pick after Hammond, IMO.

A lot of people believe Boris is an opportunistic shit. I suppose he can't lose any more respect, and May isn't a typical Cameroon. He might get away with it.

John_M said:

I see Len McCluskey is on the warpath and demanding Watson's head on a spike. Going to be an acrimonious race for sure.

McCluskey sounds panicky. Maybe not so sure which way the NEC will swing.

Surely if Boris now defected to May everyone would just fall over laughing and he would never be taken seriously again (if he ever was in the first place).

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

SouthamObserver said:

oxfordsimon said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

That's it, isn't? Labour is finished now. The unions are backing Corbyn so he'll be on the ballot, and he will win.

The party will have to split

Yes, Labour will have to split. I don't know where they go from here without splitting. I do wonder what union types will do, will they stick with Labour official of break off and try to woo the more sane unions.

The obvious move, I guess, is for the bulk of the PLP to unite with the Lib Dems. There really isn't room for more than one centre left party in the UK.

That would at least give us symmetry and logic. Old Labour on the hard left, Liberal Labour centre left, Tories (if May wins), centre right, and UKIP hard right.

I can imagine Old Labour and Lib Labour governing as a Coalition in 2025?

Farron is not the sort of person who would tempt people to defect to serve under him.

The PLP would be bigger than the LDs. It would be a takeover. The LDs would not allow that, surely.

Mass defections to the Co-operative Party?

That seems the obvious move to me. It's already there, with an organisation and a level of name recognition.

But if the PLP don't unite with the Lib Dems (and I do see the difficulties), that means there would be four parties on the centre left and left (Greens, Old Labour, Co-op Labour, LDs) - more if you count the Nats and Plaid.

Fragmentation like that, combined with FPTP, would be a recipe for permanent government by the Right.

Yep, it would take a long time to get the Tories out but we are where we are. The next few years are going to be tough. The LDs must fancy some kind of comeback in their old heartlands. The two Labour parties will slug it out in the Labour areas in England and Wales and one side will end up winning. Then there'll be the chance to take on the Tories. But we're talking at least 10-15 years.

The argument for a pact between LDs and, erm, New Labour is strong.