politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail
Comments
-
Which area?ToryJim said:
In favour.TheWhiteRabbit said:
13:2 in favour of leave? or against?ToryJim said:
Not this weekend, was at one on Thursday sampled 15 people. 11 definitely May, 3 undecided but leaning May, 1 undecided not leaning either way. For clarity referendum wise they broke 13:2 Leave.MikeL said:Anyone on here attending a Conservative members events this weekend - surely lots of stuff should be happening at this time of year. Would be very helpful to see the results of any straw polls on the leadership contest.
0 -
lets hold a referendum on it !!John_N4 said:No points to anyone who uses the word "renew" when discussing the nuclear weapons vote.
The British government paid more than £30 billion for the wars it lost in Iraq and Afghanistan, helping to kill hundreds of thousands of people and making 5 million people into refugees. Very profitable for some.
Now there will be a vote in the House of "Commons" on whether the same regime should spend at least £200 billion on contracts to spruce up its nuclear weapons systems, including paying for new submarines from which it can fire US-made and US-serviced intercontinental missiles carrying nuclear warheads designed to destroy foreign cities.
Meanwhile foodbanks proliferate in the home country.
How about saying NO?0 -
Mr. Calum, I'm reminded of what Lycurgus, the Spartan law-giver, said when people said they believed in democracy: Start in your own family.
Mr. Urquhart, I'm surprised Nuttall isn't standing.0 -
She's accused of amateurism, but the timing of the gate opening as she walked back was worthy of Number 10.anotherDave said:
There's a video of Ms Leadsom's statement on the ITV website.JackW said:Whilst the Leadsom transcripts are bad enough I've just heard the audio and it's worse.
Mrs JackW picked it up first and then I listened more carefully. It's the clear emphasis that Leadsom uses when she says :
"... But I have children .."
Earlier today I thought Leadsom was simply foolish and insensitive in the interview but regretfully it appears she was also distinctly mendacious.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-07-09/andrea-leadsom-disgusted-by-times-article/0 -
Thanks - please everyone keep these anecdotes coming.ToryJim said:
Not this weekend, was at one on Thursday sampled 15 people. 11 definitely May, 3 undecided but leaning May, 1 undecided not leaning either way. For clarity referendum wise they broke 13:2 Leave.MikeL said:Anyone on here attending a Conservative members events this weekend - surely lots of stuff should be happening at this time of year. Would be very helpful to see the results of any straw polls on the leadership contest.
I think they are more valuable than in other elections we discuss on here because Con members are likely to be a much more similar demographic to each other than the population as a whole - ie I would be surprised if there were massive variations with say one Local party 80% May and another Local party 80% Leadsom (obviously other than their own Local parties or other exceptional cases).0 -
Williams win the first set against Kerber 7:50
-
http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/14020/brexit-what-now-for-whitehall/?=fromReactiondotlife
Thought people might like this.0 -
If ever the prefix 'omni' was appropriate..FrancisUrquhart said:What a shambles....
0 -
Have things moved on or remained the same? Did Cameron spend years pulling the party away from the 1950's or notPauly said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9982157/Margaret-Thatcher-Yes-I-wish-I-saw-more-of-my-children.-But-I-cant-regret.html
Thatcher - “Any woman who understands the problems of running a home will be nearer to understanding the problems of running a country.”
Did this article generate outrage at the time?
If the answer to the questions is no you may have a point0 -
We're not going to get a split are we? That really would be fun...FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what is going on there.SouthamObserver said:0 -
It's almost certainly nothing - but Carswell tweeted about setting up a new party with Gisela, Hoey and someone else as a great idea.TheWhiteRabbit said:
We're not going to get a split are we? That really would be fun...FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what is going on there.SouthamObserver said:0 -
The SNP must think it's Christmas!Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Iain Martin has a word or two of advice for Leadsom
http://reaction.life/one-word-defence-andrea-leadsom/0 -
The rule is believe it when you see it !PlatoSaid said:
It's almost certainly nothing - but Carswell tweeted about setting up a new party with Gisela, Hoey and someone else as a great idea.TheWhiteRabbit said:
We're not going to get a split are we? That really would be fun...FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what is going on there.SouthamObserver said:0 -
First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
Are members of Conservative drinking clubs Party Members?0
-
Thanks a lot.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
Are these the same people you straw polled last week?
Also what is the age range - is it typical of all members?0 -
OT - Friday night's R4 Dead Ringers is a hoot - Gove as Vicky Pollard....0
-
pro-fox-hunting is the only common denominator I can spot there, though I'm not sure about Carswell.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The rule is believe it when you see it !PlatoSaid said:
It's almost certainly nothing - but Carswell tweeted about setting up a new party with Gisela, Hoey and someone else as a great idea.TheWhiteRabbit said:
We're not going to get a split are we? That really would be fun...FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what is going on there.SouthamObserver said:0 -
This Buzzfeed piece is just brilliant
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/a-marrow-victory?utm_term=.tmY0q6aj230 -
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
0 -
When I call her that feel free to call me on it. I can't see anybody else on here using, if I do Ill call them in there stupidity as wellPrinceofTaranto said:
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
0 -
Fuck off.calum said:
lets hold a referendum on it !!John_N4 said:No points to anyone who uses the word "renew" when discussing the nuclear weapons vote.
The British government paid more than £30 billion for the wars it lost in Iraq and Afghanistan, helping to kill hundreds of thousands of people and making 5 million people into refugees. Very profitable for some.
Now there will be a vote in the House of "Commons" on whether the same regime should spend at least £200 billion on contracts to spruce up its nuclear weapons systems, including paying for new submarines from which it can fire US-made and US-serviced intercontinental missiles carrying nuclear warheads designed to destroy foreign cities.
Meanwhile foodbanks proliferate in the home country.
How about saying NO?0 -
*twitch* I thought it was Gove or Johnson on the final ballot. Or even both of them. I trust nothing and no one any longer (apparently, after listening to Reaction.Life's podcast, much like May).SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
I would no longer be surprised if May announced a sudden conversion to Islam or a unilateral withdrawal from NATO, or it transpired that she'd secretly been spying for Russia since 1997.
I won't rest easy until September 9th.0 -
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
TSE for onesaddened said:
When I call her that feel free to call me on it. I can't see anybody else on here using, if I do Ill call them in there stupidity as wellPrinceofTaranto said:
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
Martin's penultimate sentence sums it up:ToryJim said:Iain Martin has a word or two of advice for Leadsom
http://reaction.life/one-word-defence-andrea-leadsom/
'Leadsom’s failure in that interview was a failure of manners and basic common sense, illustrating again that she is a novice being used by the Tory Right for its own purposes.'
There's no doubt that Trump and Brexit have emboldened the British hard-right, who, after years of thinking they were being marginalized despite being correct about everything, now feel that their time has come. Leadsom gives the impression of being their hapless stooge. I hope she follows Martin's advice, quits with what's left of her dignity intact, and puts the nasties back on the shelf.0 -
Well, if he has, it's stupid and he should stop. But it doesn't give you a pass to be stupid.PrinceofTaranto said:
TSE for onesaddened said:
When I call her that feel free to call me on it. I can't see anybody else on here using, if I do Ill call them in there stupidity as wellPrinceofTaranto said:
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
It's optimistic to expect to be able to rest easy in only two months' time. That's when the rollercoaster really gets launched.John_M said:
I won't rest easy until September 9th.0 -
Which area are your members in?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
I don't know if it's typical, but the range is 30-60, people who went out campaigning.MikeL said:
Thanks a lot.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
Are these the same people you straw polled last week?
Also what is the age range - is it typical of all members?0 -
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.0 -
Yes one of the tragedies of Brexit is that the frothing reactionaries feel they have been legitimisedStark_Dawning said:
Martin's penultimate sentence sums it up:ToryJim said:Iain Martin has a word or two of advice for Leadsom
http://reaction.life/one-word-defence-andrea-leadsom/
'Leadsom’s failure in that interview was a failure of manners and basic common sense, illustrating again that she is a novice being used by the Tory Right for its own purposes.'
There's no doubt that Trump and Brexit have emboldened the British hard-right, who, after years of thinking they were being marginalized despite being correct about everything, now feel that their time has come. Leadsom gives the impression of being their hapless stooge. I hope she follows Martin's advice, quits with what's left of her dignity intact, and puts the nasties back on the shelf.0 -
HertfordshirePlatoSaid said:
Which area are your members in?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
Twenty two !!!!!!!!!!!!!0
-
@SouthamObserver
Could David Cameron have done one last favour to the centrists with the timing of the Trident vote.
Unions are strongly pro Trident0 -
Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
This or a variation has become a common name for her on alot of the comments boards for what it's worth as it does provide a link back to her comments on Sharia law of which you are no doubt aware?saddened said:
Well, if he has, it's stupid and he should stop. But it doesn't give you a pass to be stupid.PrinceofTaranto said:
TSE for onesaddened said:
When I call her that feel free to call me on it. I can't see anybody else on here using, if I do Ill call them in there stupidity as wellPrinceofTaranto said:
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.0 -
“Sort of” back on topic, going off recent history July 18th might not go off as Dave expects it to.
Can’t quite see how at the moment, but ......0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, *raises an eyebrow*
Notches in the bedpost?0 -
Border chaos - meh
Putting the emphasis on *mother* in a sentence - MELTDOWN0 -
May has said nothing about reversing the IHT cut Osborne proposedIshmael_X said:
It isn't about twitter going mad, it is about evidence piling up of thickness and incompetence. As to the other line you seem to be plugging about May being unnoticeable for 6 years at the H.O., I doubt Leadsom could run the H.O. for 6 weeks without coming to public notice, and not in a good way.Luckyguy1983 said:If Leadsom wins, a slim possibility, but still possible, again the twitterati will be shocked, apalled, astonished - but HOW could this happen when twitter went mad over that awful interview? HOW could the Tories have elected this bigoted, Bible-bashing, incompetent, tea-lady dressed as director? They're bubbling themselves up with visceral hatred for someone totally inoffensive, and once again demonising their opponents rather than attempting to understand or even convince them. And if she wins, once again they won't accept the result, and once again they will actively hope, and do whatever they can (thankfully in most cases little) to ensure, that her time in office is a failure.
Storm in a tea cup though. The net effect of all this on the relevant electorate will be: Leadsom safe pair of hands on inheritance tax, May leaving it all to the dogs home anyway.0 -
Amendment?OldKingCole said:“Sort of” back on topic, going off recent history July 18th might not go off as Dave expects it to.
Can’t quite see how at the moment, but ......0 -
Activists tend to more buy into the concept of winning in my opinion. From everything I'm hearing TM ought to win handily but I do have a small scintilla of doubt.SeanT said:
I would have thought activists, if anything, would be further right than average members - more likely to be LEAVE. Therefore, more open to Leadsom, in theory?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
But then I'm not a Tory, never have been, so am possibly talking total bollocks. It's not unknown.0 -
F1: unusually low number of potential bets came to mind. I'll wait (the looong wait) for the markets to get going and give them a look.
Rather odd to make a quick qualifying tip and have so little idea of potential value for the race. Perhaps I should ingest more coffee.0 -
Do recent events suggest a case for both Con and Lab changing their leadership rules?
As Kinnock said to the PLP the other day, everything has to be done through Parliament. So how can someone lead their party without the support of MPs?
If it is felt members must have a say then what about an Electoral College of 50% MPs, 50% members?
Then members would have an equal say to MPs, but not the whole say like now.
And it would mean that if MPs are very heavily in favour of one candidate, it would be incredibly unlikely that members would overturn that. But if it's close amongst MPs, then the members say would be more likely to be decisive.
Surely this would give the best chance of the most common sense result - and leaders for both parties that would able to do an effective job.0 -
Only Margaret Court left to catch now for Serena.0
-
I am very well aware of the FULL, comments and the attempts of some to deliberately twist themPrinceofTaranto said:
This or a variation has become a common name for her on alot of the comments boards for what it's worth as it does provide a link back to her comments on Sharia law of which you are no doubt aware?saddened said:
Well, if he has, it's stupid and he should stop. But it doesn't give you a pass to be stupid.PrinceofTaranto said:
TSE for onesaddened said:
When I call her that feel free to call me on it. I can't see anybody else on here using, if I do Ill call them in there stupidity as wellPrinceofTaranto said:
Unlike loathesome Leadsom I supposesaddened said:
You do realise that comments like this make you look silly don't you? Sharia's? Really?PrinceofTaranto said:
I think we need to see the manifestos of the two candidates before any sort of judgement is meaningful.If the Leadsom manifesto is anything like the suggested scoop two nights ago I can see that going down extremely well with Tory grassroots.Not sure what Sharia's manifesto will be like but every reason to suppose it will be dull and lacking in inspiration like her 6 years of inactive incompetence at the Home Office.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
You can prove me wrong by posting the whole thing yourself and pointing out which bits you take issue with.0 -
Activists tend to be a bit more centrist in my experience since they are younger. However, the older generation value experience and many I have met rate May very highly.SeanT said:
I would have thought activists, if anything, would be further right than average members - more likely to be LEAVE. Therefore, more open to Leadsom, in theory?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
But then I'm not a Tory, never have been, so am possibly talking total bollocks. It's not unknown.0 -
Imagine the size of the SNP's majority if Holyrood had been elected this week.0
-
He launched his leadership campaign and withdrew allegedly because of 'pressures on his family' or his then girlfriend's mother being doorsteeped or more likely he really declined to run because Labour had no chance of winning the 2020 election and the membership was looking for a leftwing leader. Come another Labour defeat and the chance of a Labour win in 2025 he may well decide to put his name forward againDavid_Evershed said:
Chuka withdrew from the previous leadership contest for reasons which presumably still apply.HYUFD said:
Chuka, a rare anti Iraq War Blairite, can but only after Labour loses the 2020 election, he knows that too which is why he will not challenge Corbyn himselfTheScreamingEagles said:
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'kle4 said:Time for Chuka?
And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'0 -
Just given away £40 by accident on Betfair, dammit...0
-
For the last few weeks, even before June 23rd, your musings have been veritable pearls of wisdom. You're wasted on the trivia of novels and travel. Sometimes.SeanT said:
I would have thought activists, if anything, would be further right than average members - more likely to be LEAVE. Therefore, more open to Leadsom, in theory?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
But then I'm not a Tory, never have been, so am possibly talking total bollocks. It's not unknown.
It's a great question and the various polls of members are the best indicators: anecdotally when meeting members during canvassing etc, I would hazard that you're right and they are marginally less 'ideological' than us activists. For a start I hadn't realized until two days ago that my next door neighbours were party members - both are firm May supporters.
It's the Esher and Walton Association's Summer Party later in the month, usually around 50 plus attending: I shall do a full survey and report back...0 -
This is exactly the point I was trying to make about the manifestos.Leadsom will be clearly for a points based system for EU nationals;will May even come out for the EEA or try and fudge it?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
I am certain Leadsom will win. The Times headline was definitely not fair. It was typical dirty journalism. Using words out of context. I have read the transcript.JohnLoony said:
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Conservative Party membership - especially out in the countryside, where reactionary bumpkinism still has strong routes. Your straw poll is all in London, where normal people live. Out in the shires, many Conservative Party members may actually agree with what Leadsom said, see it as an advantage, regret that she has tried to deny it, and are looking gleefully ahead to a new era of neo-bigotism.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
I hope you are right, and I hope that Leadsom will continue to make lots of other gaffes and blunders, but I fear that Leadsom may still win.0 -
Odds and stake mixed up ?TheWhiteRabbit said:Just given away £40 by accident on Betfair, dammit...
0 -
Current activists would presumably be Cameron supporters. Con party members who dislike Cameroons would be less motivated to be activists.SeanT said:
I would have thought activists, if anything, would be further right than average members - more likely to be LEAVE. Therefore, more open to Leadsom, in theory?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
But then I'm not a Tory, never have been, so am possibly talking total bollocks. It's not unknown.
0 -
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
0 -
I've been chatting to a fellow Tory member who had made an observation that to my shame I had forgotten.
Mrs May is a former Tory chairman. She would have done the rubber chicken circuit and built up quite some friendships and contacts.
Granted this was over a decade ago, but it does give her an advantage that Andrea Leadsom doesn't possess.
Both of them also would be the first Tory leader to be a former councillor since John Major0 -
'In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity'TwistedFireStopper said:
The SNP must think it's Christmas!Theuniondivvie said:
It would be rude to look too closely at the gnashers of this particular horsey.0 -
May will do an EEA fudge before the election, if she wins the leadership that then gives her room to sign up to itPrinceofTaranto said:
This is exactly the point I was trying to make about the manifestos.Leadsom will be clearly for a points based system for EU nationals;will May even come out for the EEA or try and fudge it?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
0
-
Just back from a lovely walk in the park.
You know what? Angela Eagle is always challenging for the leadership and the challenge is always Manyana, Domani, Tomorrow, and never today. One really has to laugh at the sheer idiocy of these Labour manouvers.0 -
There is a good argument for holding off on Article 50 until the new French President is elected on May 7 next year. Simply, otherwise you'll have six months of negotiations with (the doomed) Francois Hollande, before transferring to Alain Juppe (or perhaps Marine Le Pen).anotherDave said:
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
Mr. HYUFD, an EEA approach would likely command most support in the country and make it more difficult for Sturgeon to paint Referendum 2: Refer Harder as being in Scotland's interest rather than just the SNP's.
However, it could make things tricky within the Conservative Party.
Be interesting to see whether Eagle actually goes ahead with it on Monday.
Next election could see anything from the Conservatives being shattered (internal war coupled with cocking up the EU exit and an economic downturn) to utterly dominant (facing a splintered opposition with UKIP preying on Labour targets in the north).0 -
That's correct. Not sure our European friends will be happy with that, but we'll see.anotherDave said:
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
I'd better pre-book the entire fleet of the Surrey Ambulance Service.JackW said:
It that one on SeanT's tame champagne tingling parties or something more exotic ? ..JohnO said:It's the Esher and Walton Association's Summer Party later in the month, usually around 50 plus attending: I shall do a full survey and report back...
0 -
@wstonecardiff: Currently dividing the store into Mothers and Non-Mothers, so readers can tell which books were written by those who care about the future.0
-
EekScott_P said:@wstonecardiff: Currently dividing the store into Mothers and Non-Mothers, so readers can tell which books were written by those who care about the future.
0 -
Jill Stein of the US Green Party has offered Bernie Sanders her place as the Green nominee for the US presidency.
If he accepts, Trump's price is likely to rise fast.
It's too late for someone to enter the race as a new-party or independent candidate. They couldn't get a majority in the electoral college. They could hang it from third place, or perhaps even from higher, but then the president would be chosen by the House of Representatives, with one vote per state, so I don't think that aim would sell very well. If a third big name enters the race, it will be through an existing third party.
A Repug taking over as the Constitution or Libertarian candidate - or as both - is unlikely. Sanders running as Green is the possibility to watch.0 -
According to Times article, there will be no single market under Leadsom. She wants to allow EU access to UK market as now, and is confident EU will not impose tariffs on UK. Definitely no free movement.HYUFD said:
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
In the yougov members poll Eagle was second favoured after Jarvis to replace Corbyn and did better than Watson and Jarvis head to head against Corbyn.surbiton said:I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
In 1987 Kinnock increased the Labour voteshare by 3.2% after the 1983 loss and in 1992 by 3.6%, Ed Miliband only increased the Labour voteshare by 1.3% in 2015 so your point there is wrong. In terms of seats Michael Howard gained 33 seats in 2005 too, Miliband lost 26. In fact in terms of seat losses Miliband did even worse than Hague who gained 1 seat in 2001 and Gaitskill who in 1959 lost 19 seats. In terms of seat losses he was the worst postwar opposition leader after Foot who lost 52 seats0 -
Oh for goodness sake! When Labour is facing an existential crisis if Corbyn gets back in, it's hardly the time to be splitting hairs about the qualities or otherwise of his challenger.surbiton said:I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
Good for Eagle. At least she's had the guts to trigger a contest.
0 -
Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.0 -
He's due to endorse Hillary this week so we'll know soon enough.John_N4 said:Sanders running as Green is the possibility to watch.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/07/bernie-sanders-confirms-clinton-endorsement-talks/86798398/0 -
Good system. Would make a lot more sense than the current shamblesMikeL said:Do recent events suggest a case for both Con and Lab changing their leadership rules?
As Kinnock said to the PLP the other day, everything has to be done through Parliament. So how can someone lead their party without the support of MPs?
If it is felt members must have a say then what about an Electoral College of 50% MPs, 50% members?
Then members would have an equal say to MPs, but not the whole say like now.
And it would mean that if MPs are very heavily in favour of one candidate, it would be incredibly unlikely that members would overturn that. But if it's close amongst MPs, then the members say would be more likely to be decisive.
Surely this would give the best chance of the most common sense result - and leaders for both parties that would able to do an effective job.0 -
Mr. Phil, if she triggers one. Eagle has to stand, and the PLP has to support her.0
-
Nonsense.rcs1000 said:There is a good argument for holding off on Article 50 until the new French President is elected on May 7 next year. Simply, otherwise you'll have six months of negotiations with (the doomed) Francois Hollande, before transferring to Alain Juppe (or perhaps Marine Le Pen).
Yet more uncertainty, dither and drift. No thank you.
PM May - Action this day. "We leave the EU on 31st December 2018."
There's leadership for you ....
0 -
According to the betting, it is most likely that it won't be triggered until at least July 2017.John_M said:
That's correct. Not sure our European friends will be happy with that, but we'll see.anotherDave said:
Hasn't Ms May also said that she won't trigger article 50 this year?HYUFD said:Interesting interview with Theresa May in today's Telegraph. She says she is "very clear that Brexit means Brexit" but also adds "If I am prime minister we will come out of the European Union and part of that will be control of free movement." That suggests she is open to keeping some element of free movement as part of an EEA deal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/08/theresa-may-britain-faces-tough-times-but-can-enjoy-a-better-bri/
Andrea Leadsom by contrast has said "We want to be able to control the numbers that are coming here. I don't think there should be another general election. Freedom of movement will end, and the British Parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year to live, work and contribute to our national life."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125398889
0 -
She hasn't triggered it yet.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Oh for goodness sake! When Labour is facing an existential crisis if Corbyn gets back in, it's hardly the time to be splitting hairs about the qualities or otherwise of his challenger.surbiton said:I am a non-Corbynista voting for Corbyn if the person with the charisma of a wet lettuce is the only challenger.
Why not Yvette, Tom Watson, even Harriet ? I am not sure why Harriet has not put herself forward before. She is the most deserving leader we could have.
I would certainly vote for Ed Miliband. The leader who achieved the largest increase in vote share for any party in the election after they lost since 1950. All parties actually lost vote share except the Tories in 2001 got a miniscule 0.3% increase on 1997. Ed achieved 1.3% despite Scotland. So it was even more in England.
I cannot speak for Lisa Nandy. But I feel Seema Malhotra should throw her hat in the ring.
Good for Eagle. At least she's had the guts to trigger a contest.
We have been at this point before - and she bottled it then.
All that is happening at the moment is she is giving Momentum time to recruit even more fellow travellers - and increasing the size of her defeat. Either way she is going to end up being deselected.
Doomed.0 -
And that's just for you and a few selected "friends" ....JohnO said:
I'd better pre-book the entire fleet of the Surrey Ambulance Service.JackW said:
It that one on SeanT's tame champagne tingling parties or something more exotic ? ..JohnO said:It's the Esher and Walton Association's Summer Party later in the month, usually around 50 plus attending: I shall do a full survey and report back...
0 -
I think it will be tough to get a heads of agreement with Hollande and then have Juppe or Sarkozy sign it into law with few to no changes.JackW said:
Nonsense.rcs1000 said:There is a good argument for holding off on Article 50 until the new French President is elected on May 7 next year. Simply, otherwise you'll have six months of negotiations with (the doomed) Francois Hollande, before transferring to Alain Juppe (or perhaps Marine Le Pen).
Yet more uncertainty, dither and drift. No thank you.
PM May - Action this day. "We leave the EU on 31st December 2018."
There's leadership for you ....0 -
Yes...!Pulpstar said:
Odds and stake mixed up ?TheWhiteRabbit said:Just given away £40 by accident on Betfair, dammit...
0 -
If Eagle finished top of the list for Shadow cabinet nominations(as I understand she did), it clearly shows the absolute dearth of political talent within Labour. No one doubts her intelligence , but the way she comes across is painfully awful.0
-
Yes, it is a clear choice. The Leadsom line, no free movement and no single market, is the UKIP line so if she wins then UKIP probably dies a death and infiltrates the Tory Party instead. If May wins UKIP will be the main voice of opposition to any EEA dealAndypet said:
According to Times article, there will be no single market under Leadsom. She wants to allow EU access to UK market as now, and is confident EU will not impose tariffs on UK. Definitely no free movement.HYUFD said:
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom0 -
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.nunu said:Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
0 -
It is possible to unilaterally waive tariffs. The IFS report did review some of the modelling on that scenario (my overall impression is the authors were looking down their nostrils in haughty disdain while they were writing that section). All of the models (and I mean all) used are incomplete, WTO, EEA, FTA, whatever.Andypet said:
According to Times article, there will be no single market under Leadsom. She wants to allow EU access to UK market as now, and is confident EU will not impose tariffs on UK. Definitely no free movement.HYUFD said:
So there will be a choice for party members, free movement and the single market with May or an end to free movement and a potential exit from the single market with Leadsom
The IFS itself tends to favour the NIESR models. Compared with a baseline of staying in the EU (i.e. the OBR long range forecast), the three pertinent scenarios are:
EEA : -1.5 to -2.1%
FTA: -1.9 to -2.3% (this is a bespoke EU/UK deal)
WTO: -2.7 to -3.7%
The above three model budget effects, trade and FDI. They don't take into account any additional FTAs or any changes to WTO rules.
In this sense, Leadom's ideas aren't completely bonkers.
0 -
Heh I did that the other day on Lisa NandyTheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes...!Pulpstar said:
Odds and stake mixed up ?TheWhiteRabbit said:Just given away £40 by accident on Betfair, dammit...
0 -
Just like Strictly.MikeL said:Do recent events suggest a case for both Con and Lab changing their leadership rules?
As Kinnock said to the PLP the other day, everything has to be done through Parliament. So how can someone lead their party without the support of MPs?
If it is felt members must have a say then what about an Electoral College of 50% MPs, 50% members?
Then members would have an equal say to MPs, but not the whole say like now.
And it would mean that if MPs are very heavily in favour of one candidate, it would be incredibly unlikely that members would overturn that. But if it's close amongst MPs, then the members say would be more likely to be decisive.
Surely this would give the best chance of the most common sense result - and leaders for both parties that would able to do an effective job.0 -
At least it wasn't more.Pulpstar said:
Heh I did that the other day on Lisa NandyTheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes...!Pulpstar said:
Odds and stake mixed up ?TheWhiteRabbit said:Just given away £40 by accident on Betfair, dammit...
0 -
They are also grateful to those who make the effort to visit constituencies. May visited Torbay in the election campaign last year. As far as I know, Leadsom didn't (why should she - nobody would know who she was). That effort translates into MP endorsements, which members will be made aware of.MaxPB said:
Activists tend to be a bit more centrist in my experience since they are younger. However, the older generation value experience and many I have met rate May very highly.SeanT said:
I would have thought activists, if anything, would be further right than average members - more likely to be LEAVE. Therefore, more open to Leadsom, in theory?ToryJim said:
Only problem is that activists are only about a quarter of total membership and may have a different view. I'm concerned that could tilt the balance.SeanT said:
Judging by these and other responses, May is going to walk it.MaxPB said:First results of my straw poll are in:
19 responses.
May 15
Leadsom 1
Undecided 3
Leave 10
Remain 9
Still waiting for more people to come back to me. I've sent it out to a group of about 40 people who campaigned across north and west London for Zac.
But then I'm not a Tory, never have been, so am possibly talking total bollocks. It's not unknown.0 -
I agree, an EFTA deal would make it less likely Scotland votes for Brexit, being out of the single market is one thing, refusing to join an association with Norway and Switzerland and leaving the UK to join the EU is quite another.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, an EEA approach would likely command most support in the country and make it more difficult for Sturgeon to paint Referendum 2: Refer Harder as being in Scotland's interest rather than just the SNP's.
However, it could make things tricky within the Conservative Party.
Be interesting to see whether Eagle actually goes ahead with it on Monday.
Next election could see anything from the Conservatives being shattered (internal war coupled with cocking up the EU exit and an economic downturn) to utterly dominant (facing a splintered opposition with UKIP preying on Labour targets in the north).
I think Eagle will now go ahead and has nothing to lose. Personally I think May will win the leadership and the next election and Eagle or McDonnell will lead Labour. I expect a mirror image of 2005 at the moment with UKIP taking the place of the resurgent LDs and the Tories losing votes to the Kippers with Labour gaining a few seats with little increase in voteshare, much as Howard gained seats in 2005 as a result of Labour voters defecting to the LDs over Iraq despite only increasing the Tory vote by 0.7%0 -
Crabb will struggle after yesterday's sexting revelations.ToryJim said:
I'd put Crabb as Home myself, Hammond is a good shout for Chancellor but there could be other options like Javid. Think you'd want a Leaver as Foreign Sec and there aren't many who emerge with much credit other than Fox so he's possible.nunu said:Anyhoo battle for PM is foregone conclusion, let's talk about next cabinet members.
Justine greening for next home Secretary? From Rotherham and studied at Southampton two plusses.
And Hammond for next CoE from Epping, Essex. Working/middle-class tories.
Hammond as Chancellor, Boris as FS, Grayling as HS.0 -
Certainly Owen Smith with a blank slate behind him could find it easier to define himself in a way that would be appealing to the members than Eagle.0
-
Multi State Polling - GQR
Wisconsin .. Clinton 47 .. Trump 36
Pennsylvania .. Clinton 49 .. Trump 39
Ohio .. Clinton 47 .. Trump 48
Nevada .. Clinton 45 .. Trump 47
North Carolina .. Clinton 51 ..Trump 41
Michigan .. Clinton 50 ..Trump 39
Florida .. Clinton 52 .. Trump 39
Arizona .. Clinton 43 .. Trump 49
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Dcorps_WV_BG_063016.pdf0
