politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail
To be honest, I suspect this is going to be a doomed challenge, and the more likely outcome is a formal split between the Corbyn led Labour party and the Parliamentary Labour party, though the way the politics has been in recent weeks and months who knows how things will pan out, a Leadsom led Tory Party and Corbyn winning another leadership contest seems fertile ground for a major realignment …
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First!0
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Second like leadsome0
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and owen smith?0
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About time!
On both.
Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.0 -
FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.0 -
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.0
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Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...0
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Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.0
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this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.0 -
Will Eagle get more votes than Liz Kendal?0
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Nobody could accuse Angela Eagle of being window dressing.0
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except she might be facing leadsom.Pauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
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In the unlikely event of this actually taking place, I fear it will be yet more humiliation heaped on failure for the party.0
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What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Eagle is a stalking horsekle4 said:About time!
On both.
Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.
Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson
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Eagle was closest to Corbyn in a recent yougov poll of Labour party members, closer than Watson and Jarvis. Although Corbyn may narrowly beat her she could fatally wound him. May of course will inevitably have her own problems holding off UKIP when she agrees an EEA dealPauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
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What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.
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Angela stands - is deselected by her CLP and then what?
Owen Smith is a Corbyn-lite character with much better media skills and a bigger brain.0 -
I wonder what he meant by that?TheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.Pauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
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There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.rottenborough said:
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....0 -
A hippogriff, in fact.Jobabob said:
Eagle is a stalking horsekle4 said:About time!
On both.
Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.
Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson0 -
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
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On a areJobabob said:
There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.rottenborough said:
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....
on Marr0 -
I'd have thought the big question with Angela is are we certain she is the best person even in her own family to launch the challenge. We've had trouble before with lesser siblings (in theory, I don't see that David M was all that great).0
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She's a stalking horse......MarqueeMark said:Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...
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Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.SouthamObserver said:
Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.Pauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
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AlastairMeeks said:
A hippogriff, in fact.Jobabob said:
Eagle is a stalking horsekle4 said:About time!
On both.
Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.
Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson
edited
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As Kinnock notes, the last time a sitting Labour leader was challenged he was required to get nominations to stand. There is precedent. And look at Corbyn's roe back then.Jobabob said:
There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.rottenborough said:
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....
What's more read between the lines of that Watson statement. I may be reading a bit too much. But there were three rounds of talks. Corbyn was not there, so what was being discussed?
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Time for Chuka?0
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Here are some more eagle-related sayings for future threads.
https://whatismyspiritanimal.com/animal-quotes/eagle-quotes-sayings/0 -
Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.0 -
Thats a shame. Thought he was their best betTheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Yougov details were that 44% of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down now, 10% before the next election, with just 41% wanting him to lead Labour into the next election. Of those Labour members who wanted Corbyn to step down 13% wanted Jarvis to replace him, 12% Eagle, 11% Burnham. Head to head the figures were 12% Corbyn 50% Eagle 40%, Corbyn 50% Watson 39% and Corbyn 52% Jarvis 35%. Eagle and Watson also beat McDonnell, though Jarvis did not.
Given Corbyn won 60% in the 2015 leadership ballot, 50% would show he had lost 10% of his support and is at least beatable
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf0 -
A running dog.Jobabob said:
She's a stalking horse......MarqueeMark said:Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...
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So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.0 -
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'kle4 said:Time for Chuka?
And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'0 -
It's not a loophole. Legally it's potentially much better than that - it's a precedent.Jobabob said:
Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
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You cannot fly like an eagle with the wings of a wrenedmundintokyo said:Here are some more eagle-related sayings for future threads.
https://whatismyspiritanimal.com/animal-quotes/eagle-quotes-sayings/
Seems relevant perhaps.0 -
Also here's a song about an eagle that bites its prey, which then bites back, and keeps hanging on, forever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYjrA9ZtPhI0 -
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
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Life is full of disappointments, but at least you got in a subtle music reference on this one.TheScreamingEagles said:
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'kle4 said:Time for Chuka?
And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'0 -
Exactly. And Eagle is looking at deselection in her own constituency. She is the obvious stalking horse candidate.rottenborough said:
Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.SouthamObserver said:
Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.Pauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
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Keep that quite until sensible PBers have got on at current odds...TheScreamingEagles said:
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'kle4 said:Time for Chuka?
And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'0 -
As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?0
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Preferred Woolfe myself - he's got the tough Moss Side background, yet smoothness on the TV. Nuttall was a bit too much trade union bruiser.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Thats a shame. Thought he was their best betTheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
I previously advised PBers to get on at evens that Cameron would go before Corbyn.
Although I think the current price of 1.5 is fair, I suspect Eagle's announcement may throw things around a bit. It may again be possible to back Cameron at evens.0 -
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.rottenborough said:As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
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I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.PlatoSaid said:
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
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Doesn't an eagle save Gandalf from evil Saruman?0
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He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.kle4 said:
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.rottenborough said:As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
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At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?0 -
That'll be the same Edward who introduce the stunning £3 a go supporters scheme?PlatoSaid said:
He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.kle4 said:
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.rottenborough said:As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
How's the three quiddey thingy going Ed?0 -
Very good point.SouthamObserver said:
It's not a loophole. Legally it's potentially much better than that - it's a precedent.Jobabob said:
Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....SouthamObserver said:FPT ...
Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:
“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”
The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.
I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.0 -
Given the reported rise in membership of the Labour Party, is it possible if Corbyn is on the ballot for him to gain more votes than last time yet still lose?0
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My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:Alistair said:
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.PlatoSaid said:
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287
I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.0 -
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.
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Different legal people say different things. Will all come down to what the NEC say.murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?0 -
I genuinely can't understand what EdM and his clique were thinking of. It was so horribly obvious what would happen. Imagine if the Tories did the same thing?rottenborough said:
That'll be the same Edward who introduce the stunning £3 a go supporters scheme?PlatoSaid said:
He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.kle4 said:
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.rottenborough said:As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
How's the three quiddey thingy going Ed?
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Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...AlastairMeeks said:
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:Alistair said:
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.PlatoSaid said:
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287
I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.0 -
Woolfe is widely available at 3.75. In the absence of an obvious challenger, a good bet as things stand.PlatoSaid said:
Preferred Woolfe myself - he's got the tough Moss Side background, yet smoothness on the TV. Nuttall was a bit too much trade union bruiser.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Thats a shame. Thought he was their best betTheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.
Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.
Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.
Hmm.
I think the first point overrules the rest though.
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This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?Pulpstar said:
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.
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That's why I've built up the position I've built up. The Alliance topped 50% in the polls in 1981...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...AlastairMeeks said:
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:Alistair said:
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.PlatoSaid said:
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287
I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.0 -
You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?0 -
If Watson has got the unions on board... he could leverage the Trident vote too...? Fascinating stuff thisDanSmith said:
Different legal people say different things. Will all come down to what the NEC say.murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?0 -
It's mostly a contractual issue, you can sue for your rights. (It's possible some tortious or equitable duties are owed in unincorporated associations, but I suspect contract will prevail.)SouthamObserver said:
This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?Pulpstar said:
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.0 -
The courts will interpret the wording of private documents, whether trusts or club constitutions.SouthamObserver said:
This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?Pulpstar said:
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.0 -
Given the leader of the "private club" can become PM, I think they could be involved.SouthamObserver said:
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.0 -
Any other already only at 34!AlastairMeeks said:
That's why I've built up the position I've built up. The Alliance topped 50% in the polls in 1981...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...AlastairMeeks said:
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:Alistair said:
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.PlatoSaid said:
I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1hamiltonace said:As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.
Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287
I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.0 -
Excuse my ignorance here Southam.SouthamObserver said:
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.
In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?0 -
Interesting pointMarkHopkins said:
Given the leader of the "private club" can become PM, I think they could be involved.SouthamObserver said:
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.0 -
If Labour manage to keep Corbyn off the ballot, the crying of the Twibbon bearing Twitter Corbynistas may cause flooding in major population centres. We can also look forward to them ramping up the misogyny and threats against women who disagree with them, whilst claiming that they can't be misogynists, as they're socialists. Might stock up on the gin.0
-
My word you might have spotted something there.SouthamObserver said:
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.0 -
That would be hilarious. Fingers crossed.SouthamObserver said:
Exactly. And Eagle is looking at deselection in her own constituency. She is the obvious stalking horse candidate.rottenborough said:
Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.SouthamObserver said:
Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.Pauly said:Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.
0 -
I'm a #2 and #3MarkHopkins said:
Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.
Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.
Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.
Hmm.
I think the first point overrules the rest though.0 -
Well, he's (Watson) had the training for it.DanSmith said:
My word you might have spotted something there.SouthamObserver said:
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.0 -
Fair enough - good postMarkHopkins said:
Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.
Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.
Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.
Hmm.
I think the first point overrules the rest though.0 -
What a surprise...PlatoSaid said:
I'm a #2 and #3MarkHopkins said:
Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.
Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.
Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.
Hmm.
I think the first point overrules the rest though.0 -
The Eagle hasn't landed, but she is unfolding her wings with a view to taking off.
Whilst it's been very enjoyable mocking the slowest coup in political history, I can see some sense in the approach which has been taken; the plotters (if it makes sense to call the majority of the PLP 'plotters') need to cover their backs, as far as is humanly possible, against the charge that they didn't give Corbyn a chance. They'll of course be accused of betrayal whatever happens - no-one outside Albania does multi-generational grudges like the Labour Party - but at least they'll be able to say they tried really, really hard to find a fraternal solution.
Very hard to say how it will end, except that, whatever the outcome, the civil war is not going to end anytime soon.0 -
Very good news for Labournunu said:
Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
As if one shambolic leadership election wasn't enough to be going on with....
Meanwhile, in a parallel universe Louise Mensch is tweeting from New York....evidently without being in full command of the facts.....0 -
FPT
Paul_Bedfordshire said:
» show previous quotes
I still thought it was funny
glad you saw it the way it was meant to be Paul0 -
It depends on what grounds. This is nowhere near my area of expertise, but as far as I understand it, a private club is allowed to set and interpret its own rules as long as these are not criminal or discriminatory. The grounds for going to court would be that the club was not following its own rules. That may be where the Kinnock/Benn precedent comes into play.Jobabob said:
Excuse my ignorance here Southam.SouthamObserver said:
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.
In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?
Of course, all of this is moot. If the NEC decides that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper then that's it. I suspect he probably has the votes to ensure that, but only if the unions stick with him.
0 -
There's a surprise.PlatoSaid said:
I'm a #2 and #3MarkHopkins said:
Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.
Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.
Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.
Hmm.
I think the first point overrules the rest though.0 -
A rule of the Labour party, Watson always gets what he wants.rottenborough said:
Well, he's (Watson) had the training for it.DanSmith said:
My word you might have spotted something there.SouthamObserver said:
Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.0 -
Indeed and maybe worse news for the Tories if UKIP pick a middle class woman like Suzanne Evans or Diane James to take on May, especially in Tory seats in the Thames Estuary, East Anglia and the East MidlandsJobabob said:
Very good news for Labournunu said:
Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.TheScreamingEagles said:What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?
http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/0 -
Charlie Falconer must resign before though.MonikerDiCanio said:
You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?0 -
Bang on Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:The Eagle hasn't landed, but she is unfolding her wings with a view to taking off.
Whilst it's been very enjoyable mocking the slowest coup in political history, I can see some sense in the approach which has been taken; the plotters (if it makes sense to call the majority of the PLP 'plotters') need to cover their backs, as far as is humanly possible, against the charge that they didn't give Corbyn a chance. They'll of course be accused of betrayal whatever happens - no-one outside Albania does multi-generational grudges like the Labour Party - but at least they'll be able to say they tried really, really hard to find a fraternal solution.
Very hard to say how it will end, except that, whatever the outcome, the civil war is not going to end anytime soon.
0 -
If Corbyn is kept off the ballot - and, as I have said, the chances are that he won't be - the Momentum morons and the £3ers will slope off to go and bother the Greens or do something else utterly irrelevant.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:If Labour manage to keep Corbyn off the ballot, the crying of the Twibbon bearing Twitter Corbynistas may cause flooding in major population centres. We can also look forward to them ramping up the misogyny and threats against women who disagree with them, whilst claiming that they can't be misogynists, as they're socialists. Might stock up on the gin.
0 -
The Falcon will fly the nest when the Eagle reveals her claws.rottenborough said:
Charlie Falconer must resign before though.MonikerDiCanio said:
You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.murali_s said:At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.
Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
0 -
Just another ordinary day in New York then.CarlottaVance said:As if one shambolic leadership election wasn't enough to be going on with....
Meanwhile, in a parallel universe Louise Mensch is tweeting from New York....evidently without being in full command of the facts.....0 -
Just stuck this tweet in to the thread header
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/7517512327677952000 -
Well Louise Mensch has a unique take on the audio and transcript.
https://twitter.com/louisemensch/status/7517476303514542080 -
Chuka, a rare anti Iraq War Blairite, can but only after Labour loses the 2020 election, he knows that too which is why he will not challenge Corbyn himselfTheScreamingEagles said:
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'kle4 said:Time for Chuka?
And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'0 -
If he can......TheScreamingEagles said:Just stuck this tweet in to the thread header
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/7517512327677952000 -
Donkey would be more aptJobabob said:
She's a stalking horse......MarqueeMark said:Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...
0 -
Yes, agree with that analysisSouthamObserver said:
It depends on what grounds. This is nowhere near my area of expertise, but as far as I understand it, a private club is allowed to set and interpret its own rules as long as these are not criminal or discriminatory. The grounds for going to court would be that the club was not following its own rules. That may be where the Kinnock/Benn precedent comes into play.Jobabob said:
Excuse my ignorance here Southam.SouthamObserver said:
Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.rottenborough said:
So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?SouthamObserver said:
What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.AlastairMeeks said:The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.
If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.
In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?
Of course, all of this is moot. If the NEC decides that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper then that's it. I suspect he probably has the votes to ensure that, but only if the unions stick with him.0
