politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail

System · July 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail

To be honest, I suspect this is going to be a doomed challenge, and the more likely outcome is a formal split between the Corbyn led Labour party and the Parliamentary Labour party, though the way the politics has been in recent weeks and months who knows how things will pan out, a Leadsom led Tory Party and Corbyn winning another leadership contest seems fertile ground for a major realignment …

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RobD · July 2016

First!

Paul_Bedfordshire · July 2016

Second like leadsome

rottenborough · July 2016

and owen smith?

kle4 · July 2016

About time!

On both.

Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

MarqueeMark · July 2016

Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...

Pauly · July 2016

Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

rottenborough · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.

this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!

Speedy · July 2016

Will Eagle get more votes than Liz Kendal?

MonikerDiCanio · July 2016

Nobody could accuse Angela Eagle of being window dressing.

rottenborough · July 2016

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

except she might be facing leadsom.

SimonStClare · July 2016

In the unlikely event of this actually taking place, I fear it will be yet more humiliation heaped on failure for the party.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/

Jobabob · July 2016

kle4 said:
About time!

On both.

Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.

Eagle is a stalking horse

Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson

HYUFD · July 2016

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

Eagle was closest to Corbyn in a recent yougov poll of Labour party members, closer than Watson and Jarvis. Although Corbyn may narrowly beat her she could fatally wound him. May of course will inevitably have her own problems holding off UKIP when she agrees an EEA deal

SouthamObserver · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

Angela stands - is deselected by her CLP and then what?

Owen Smith is a Corbyn-lite character with much better media skills and a bigger brain.

rottenborough · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/

I wonder what he meant by that?

SouthamObserver · July 2016

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.

Jobabob · July 2016

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!

There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.

Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:
About time!

On both.

Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.
Eagle is a stalking horse

Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson

A hippogriff, in fact.

hamiltonace · July 2016

As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

Jobabob · July 2016

Jobabob said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!
There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.

Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....

On a are

on Marr

kle4 · July 2016

I'd have thought the big question with Angela is are we certain she is the best person even in her own family to launch the challenge. We've had trouble before with lesser siblings (in theory, I don't see that David M was all that great).

Jobabob · July 2016

MarqueeMark said:
Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...

She's a stalking horse......

rottenborough · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.

Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.

MarkHopkins · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Jobabob said:

kle4 said:
About time!

On both.

Eagle is probably doomed, but at least someone is making the attempt - after the no confidence vote, to not even attempt to remove Corbyn if he won't go voluntarily would be gutless. Understandable, given it is expected he would win a contest if he doesn't stand aside of his own accord, but still gutless.
Eagle is a stalking horse

Great reverse psychology by @david_herdson
A hippogriff, in fact.

edited

SouthamObserver · July 2016

Jobabob said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
this will end up in the courts. more popcorn!!!
There is no way Corbyn will get the nominations.

Lord Kinnock gave a clue to the Right's thinking the other day when he hinted on a are that a leader remaining without PLP support was unconstitutional... Popcorn time indeed. Interesting times in the bunker.....

As Kinnock notes, the last time a sitting Labour leader was challenged he was required to get nominations to stand. There is precedent. And look at Corbyn's roe back then.

What's more read between the lines of that Watson statement. I may be reading a bit too much. But there were three rounds of talks. Corbyn was not there, so what was being discussed?

kle4 · July 2016

Time for Chuka?

edmundintokyo · July 2016

Here are some more eagle-related sayings for future threads.
https://whatismyspiritanimal.com/animal-quotes/eagle-quotes-sayings/

Jobabob · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.

Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....

Paul_Bedfordshire · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/

Thats a shame. Thought he was their best bet

HYUFD · July 2016

Yougov details were that 44% of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down now, 10% before the next election, with just 41% wanting him to lead Labour into the next election. Of those Labour members who wanted Corbyn to step down 13% wanted Jarvis to replace him, 12% Eagle, 11% Burnham. Head to head the figures were 12% Corbyn 50% Eagle 40%, Corbyn 50% Watson 39% and Corbyn 52% Jarvis 35%. Eagle and Watson also beat McDonnell, though Jarvis did not.
Given Corbyn won 60% in the 2015 leadership ballot, 50% would show he had lost 10% of his support and is at least beatable
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf

MonikerDiCanio · July 2016

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:
Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...
She's a stalking horse......

A running dog.

rottenborough · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

kle4 said:
Time for Chuka?

I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'

And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'

SouthamObserver · July 2016

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....

It's not a loophole. Legally it's potentially much better than that - it's a precedent.

kle4 · July 2016

edmundintokyo said:
Here are some more eagle-related sayings for future threads.
https://whatismyspiritanimal.com/animal-quotes/eagle-quotes-sayings/

You cannot fly like an eagle with the wings of a wren

Seems relevant perhaps.

edmundintokyo · July 2016

Also here's a song about an eagle that bites its prey, which then bites back, and keeps hanging on, forever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYjrA9ZtPhI

PlatoSaid · July 2016

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1

kle4 · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Time for Chuka?
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'

And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'

Life is full of disappointments, but at least you got in a subtle music reference on this one.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.

Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.

Exactly. And Eagle is looking at deselection in her own constituency. She is the obvious stalking horse candidate.

Jobabob · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Time for Chuka?
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'

And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'

Keep that quite until sensible PBers have got on at current odds...

rottenborough · July 2016

As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?

PlatoSaid · July 2016

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/
Thats a shame. Thought he was their best bet

Preferred Woolfe myself - he's got the tough Moss Side background, yet smoothness on the TV. Nuttall was a bit too much trade union bruiser.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

I previously advised PBers to get on at evens that Cameron would go before Corbyn.

Although I think the current price of 1.5 is fair, I suspect Eagle's announcement may throw things around a bit. It may again be possible to back Cameron at evens.

kle4 · July 2016

rottenborough said:
As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?

I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.

Alistair · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1

I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.

rottenborough · July 2016

Doesn't an eagle save Gandalf from evil Saruman?

PlatoSaid · July 2016

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:
As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.

He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.

murali_s · July 2016

At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?

rottenborough · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:
As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.
He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.

That'll be the same Edward who introduce the stunning £3 a go supporters scheme?

How's the three quiddey thingy going Ed?

Pulpstar · July 2016

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?

Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?

Jobabob · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:
FPT ...

Two very interesting snippets from that Watson statement:

“The Labour party was founded with the explicit aim of pursuing the parliamentary path to socialism. Every Labour leader needs to command the support of their MPs in the parliamentary Labour party, as well as party members, in order to achieve that. It is clear to all that Jeremy has lost the support of the PLP with little prospect of regaining it.”
“I felt we made significant progress during those talks, which were designed to find a solution to the impasse the party finds itself in. It is my strong belief that those discussions could have formed a basis for further talks with union representatives.
“However, since the talks began, Jeremy has publicly declared his intention to continue as leader come what may. This means there is no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise that satisfies the majority of colleagues in the PLP.”

The party leader needs to enjoy the support of MPs as well as the members; the unions were looking for a resolution, Corbyn was not.

I wonder if this means that Watson has the support of at least some unions for the position that Corby needs to get MP nominations before he can stand for re-election. If he has, that's significant as it may well deliver a majority on the NEC for such a position. And barring legal action, that means Corbyn would need 50 MPs and MEPs in order to stand again. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know.
Pay close attention to the words of Lord Kinnock would be my advice. Remember this is the guy who defeated Militant... I think he has found a loophole.....

It's not a loophole. Legally it's potentially much better than that - it's a precedent.

Very good point.

ToryJim · July 2016

Given the reported rise in membership of the Labour Party, is it possible if Corbyn is on the ballot for him to gain more votes than last time yet still lose?

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

Alistair said:

PlatoSaid said:

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.

My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:

Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287

I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

DanSmith · July 2016

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?

Different legal people say different things. Will all come down to what the NEC say.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

rottenborough said:

PlatoSaid said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:
As this is the year of weird political happenings, how about Lord Kinnock renouncing peerage, standing in Batley and running to unite and save the party?
I feel kind of sorry for him - his speech to the party the other day the audio of which is online was a little sad, in that he sounds as angry about Benn and his clique now as he was then, and was furiously talking of how there will be no split, no one is forcing him out, and yet his party may well find itself to be diametrically opposed in many ways to what he thinks it should be.
He was so delighted to "get my Party back" when EdM was elected too.
That'll be the same Edward who introduce the stunning £3 a go supporters scheme?

How's the three quiddey thingy going Ed?

I genuinely can't understand what EdM and his clique were thinking of. It was so horribly obvious what would happen. Imagine if the Tories did the same thing?

nunu · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/

Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

PlatoSaid said:

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:

Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287

I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.

Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/
Thats a shame. Thought he was their best bet
Preferred Woolfe myself - he's got the tough Moss Side background, yet smoothness on the TV. Nuttall was a bit too much trade union bruiser.

Woolfe is widely available at 3.75. In the absence of an obvious challenger, a good bet as things stand.

MarkHopkins · July 2016

Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.

Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.

Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.

Hmm.

I think the first point overrules the rest though.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?

This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

PlatoSaid said:

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:

Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287

I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.
Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...

That's why I've built up the position I've built up. The Alliance topped 50% in the polls in 1981...

MonikerDiCanio · July 2016

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?

You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.

Jobabob · July 2016

DanSmith said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Different legal people say different things. Will all come down to what the NEC say.

If Watson has got the unions on board... he could leverage the Trident vote too...? Fascinating stuff this

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?

This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

It's mostly a contractual issue, you can sue for your rights. (It's possible some tortious or equitable duties are owed in unincorporated associations, but I suspect contract will prevail.)

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Pulpstar said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious, Corbyn isn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
Will the law really want to get involved with Labour party internal matters ?

This is a very big issue here. The Labour party is not a public institution. As long as its rules are not discriminatory then could the courts get involved?

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

The courts will interpret the wording of private documents, whether trusts or club constitutions.

MarkHopkins · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

Given the leader of the "private club" can become PM, I think they could be involved.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

PlatoSaid said:

hamiltonace said:
As a bet 50-1 on Lib Dems having most seats at next general election could be an interesting shot. A split in Labour followed by Tories electing AL who trashes the economy with a botched negotiation and the Lib Dems come through with a clear vote to go back into EC.

I'd be wanting a lot more than 50-1
I'd be wanting the 500-1 I have on UKIP most seats.
My current most seats book on Betfair is as follows:

Con +11
Lab +9
Lib Dems +1250
UKIP +1250
Any other +2287

I'm not doing anything much with this for the while.
Any other is the most interesting there. Splitters could have a bounce...
That's why I've built up the position I've built up. The Alliance topped 50% in the polls in 1981...

Any other already only at 34!

Jobabob · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

Excuse my ignorance here Southam.

In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?

Jobabob · July 2016

MarkHopkins said:

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

Given the leader of the "private club" can become PM, I think they could be involved.

Interesting point

AramintaMoonbeamQC · July 2016

If Labour manage to keep Corbyn off the ballot, the crying of the Twibbon bearing Twitter Corbynistas may cause flooding in major population centres. We can also look forward to them ramping up the misogyny and threats against women who disagree with them, whilst claiming that they can't be misogynists, as they're socialists. Might stock up on the gin.

DanSmith · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

My word you might have spotted something there.

anotherDave · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

Pauly said:
Strategically I think Angela Eagle winning would be the best result for the Tories. May would wipe the floor with her and there would be no split - combined with mass disaffection with momentum entry-ists.

Eagle won't win. She may not even end up standing in the final contest.

Yes, it is possible to see a scenario where Corbyn is not allowed onto the ballot unless he gets 50 signatures, in which case other contenders will come forward.

Exactly. And Eagle is looking at deselection in her own constituency. She is the obvious stalking horse candidate.

That would be hilarious. Fingers crossed.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

MarkHopkins said:

Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.

Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.

Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.

Hmm.

I think the first point overrules the rest though.

I'm a #2 and #3

rottenborough · July 2016

DanSmith said:

SouthamObserver said:

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

My word you might have spotted something there.

Well, he's (Watson) had the training for it.

Jobabob · July 2016

MarkHopkins said:

Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.

Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.

Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.

Hmm.

I think the first point overrules the rest though.

Fair enough - good post

murali_s · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

MarkHopkins said:

Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.

Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.

Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.

Hmm.

I think the first point overrules the rest though.

I'm a #2 and #3

What a surprise...

Richard_Nabavi · July 2016

The Eagle hasn't landed, but she is unfolding her wings with a view to taking off.

Whilst it's been very enjoyable mocking the slowest coup in political history, I can see some sense in the approach which has been taken; the plotters (if it makes sense to call the majority of the PLP 'plotters') need to cover their backs, as far as is humanly possible, against the charge that they didn't give Corbyn a chance. They'll of course be accused of betrayal whatever happens - no-one outside Albania does multi-generational grudges like the Labour Party - but at least they'll be able to say they tried really, really hard to find a fraternal solution.

Very hard to say how it will end, except that, whatever the outcome, the civil war is not going to end anytime soon.

Jobabob · July 2016

nunu said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/
Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.

Very good news for Labour

CarlottaVance · July 2016

As if one shambolic leadership election wasn't enough to be going on with....

Meanwhile, in a parallel universe Louise Mensch is tweeting from New York....evidently without being in full command of the facts.....

malcolmg · July 2016

FPT
Paul_Bedfordshire said:

» show previous quotes
I still thought it was funny

glad you saw it the way it was meant to be Paul

SouthamObserver · July 2016

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

Excuse my ignorance here Southam.

In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?

It depends on what grounds. This is nowhere near my area of expertise, but as far as I understand it, a private club is allowed to set and interpret its own rules as long as these are not criminal or discriminatory. The grounds for going to court would be that the club was not following its own rules. That may be where the Kinnock/Benn precedent comes into play.

Of course, all of this is moot. If the NEC decides that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper then that's it. I suspect he probably has the votes to ensure that, but only if the unions stick with him.

Jobabob · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

MarkHopkins said:

Part of me wants to see Corbyn gone; he is a stain on this country.

Part of me wants to see the Labour party hoist by it's own petard of stupid rules, just as they like to impose on the rest of us.

Part of me wants to believe that the rules should be followed, because if you start exploiting 'loopholes', it sets a dangerous precedent.

Hmm.

I think the first point overrules the rest though.

I'm a #2 and #3

There's a surprise.

DanSmith · July 2016

rottenborough said:

DanSmith said:

SouthamObserver said:

Has Watson just spent the last week with the unions stitching Corbyn up? I doubt it, but it would be absolutely and gloriously magnificent if it were so.

My word you might have spotted something there.
Well, he's (Watson) had the training for it.

A rule of the Labour party, Watson always gets what he wants.

HYUFD · July 2016

Jobabob said:

nunu said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
What is it they say about politicians that quit their jobs/end their leadership campaigns on a Saturday afternoon?

http://order-order.com/2016/07/09/nuttall-pulls-ukip-leadership/
Sounds like Nigel is not willing to relinquish control. A shame really, LABOUR will be happy, their northern seats are safe now.
Very good news for Labour

Indeed and maybe worse news for the Tories if UKIP pick a middle class woman like Suzanne Evans or Diane James to take on May, especially in Tory seats in the Thames Estuary, East Anglia and the East Midlands

rottenborough · July 2016

MonikerDiCanio said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.

Charlie Falconer must resign before though.

Jobabob · July 2016

Richard_Nabavi said:
The Eagle hasn't landed, but she is unfolding her wings with a view to taking off.

Whilst it's been very enjoyable mocking the slowest coup in political history, I can see some sense in the approach which has been taken; the plotters (if it makes sense to call the majority of the PLP 'plotters') need to cover their backs, as far as is humanly possible, against the charge that they didn't give Corbyn a chance. They'll of course be accused of betrayal whatever happens - no-one outside Albania does multi-generational grudges like the Labour Party - but at least they'll be able to say they tried really, really hard to find a fraternal solution.

Very hard to say how it will end, except that, whatever the outcome, the civil war is not going to end anytime soon.

Bang on Richard.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
If Labour manage to keep Corbyn off the ballot, the crying of the Twibbon bearing Twitter Corbynistas may cause flooding in major population centres. We can also look forward to them ramping up the misogyny and threats against women who disagree with them, whilst claiming that they can't be misogynists, as they're socialists. Might stock up on the gin.

If Corbyn is kept off the ballot - and, as I have said, the chances are that he won't be - the Momentum morons and the £3ers will slope off to go and bother the Greens or do something else utterly irrelevant.

Jobabob · July 2016

rottenborough said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

murali_s said:
At long last! Really don't know why Eagle took so long - it was obvious that Corbyn wasn't going anywhere.

Legal experts - can Corbyn stand without the required number of nominations?
You've got to wait til Monday. I doubt Eagle will keep her word.
Charlie Falconer must resign before though.

The Falcon will fly the nest when the Eagle reveals her claws.

rottenborough · July 2016

CarlottaVance said:
As if one shambolic leadership election wasn't enough to be going on with....

Meanwhile, in a parallel universe Louise Mensch is tweeting from New York....evidently without being in full command of the facts.....

Just another ordinary day in New York then.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Just stuck this tweet in to the thread header

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/751751232767795200

ToryJim · July 2016

Well Louise Mensch has a unique take on the audio and transcript.

https://twitter.com/louisemensch/status/751747630351454208

HYUFD · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Time for Chuka?
I did contemplate writing a thread a few months ago headlined 'Chuka Can'

And I was also hopeful of a Chuka/Sadiq dream ticket, headline was 'Chuka Khan'

Chuka, a rare anti Iraq War Blairite, can but only after Labour loses the 2020 election, he knows that too which is why he will not challenge Corbyn himself

Jobabob · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Just stuck this tweet in to the thread header

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/751751232767795200

If he can......

malcolmg · July 2016

Jobabob said:

MarqueeMark said:
Someone had to stand against Corbyn after the plot. But Eagle? Could these plotters have found anyone more useless? Or maybe she just has an interesting CV...
She's a stalking horse......

Donkey would be more apt

Jobabob · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:

Jobabob said:

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:
The challenge is needed, if only to clarify that staying in the Labour party is a doomed cause for those who aspire to be in government.

What Eagle's announcement does is trigger the process. It may turn out that as part of that process the leader needs to get nominations too. If that is the case Corbyn is finished, as is the hard left in the Labour party.

If not, you are right. Labour will split into the national party and the PLP. That creates so many fascinating possibilities that it's had to know where to start.

So, the future of the Labour could be decided by the courts. Truly surreal. Somebody will have to rule on the automatic/not automatic status of Corbyn. Is it NEC? Or will it require a court?

Not sure, but I think it'll be the secretary general first off. His decision could be challenged to the NEC. Then it would go to the courts. However, there may be an issue about whether the courts are competent to judge in such a case as the Labour party could be seen as a private members club or association.

Excuse my ignorance here Southam.

In such a case (private members' club) lawyers cannot be called in?

It depends on what grounds. This is nowhere near my area of expertise, but as far as I understand it, a private club is allowed to set and interpret its own rules as long as these are not criminal or discriminatory. The grounds for going to court would be that the club was not following its own rules. That may be where the Kinnock/Benn precedent comes into play.

Of course, all of this is moot. If the NEC decides that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper then that's it. I suspect he probably has the votes to ensure that, but only if the unions stick with him.

Yes, agree with that analysis

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