Simon Jenkins — "Ignore the prophets of doom. Brexit will be good for Britain A stale leadership class is on the way out and the property bubble will burst. I can’t see the bad news"
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
Just before the referendum the £ was trading at 6.0 to the Malaysian Ringett, today it is 5.22. That means I get 15% less money every time I use an ATM to withdraw cash. Whilst for those living in the UK the £ in your pocket may appear to be the same, for those of us who live abroad for all or (in my case) part of the year are already suffering.
I live abroad but happily all my money is in Philippine Pesos, which unusually is worth about 15% more pounds than it was a couple of weeks ago, it's not every day I can say that! Supporting my family in the UK just got rather easier
Anyway, back to the whole What's the best champagne to pour over your girlfriend's nipples question....
Avoid verve cliquot (known as the widow). And probably Mumms as well!
The was a very funny story (not at the time) that happened to a friend of mine.
He was head over in heels with a lovely girl who finally threw him over for another man Naturally he was heartbroken and didn't attend the wedding but shortly afterwards saw sense so ordered a crate of champagne for her - and knowing she wanted children really badly requesrlted Mumms with a nice note saying "I hope you soon become one"
Unfortunately the shop ran out of Mumms so decided to substitute...
My sister works for LVMH and we get a very steady supply of Dom, I find other champagne undrinkable.
Dom's not my thing
I do love Giesler but since they stopped shipping it I can't really be bothered to organise a van to epernee. Ruinart is good, as is Salon, but I usually stick to Verve or Tat for everyday drinking.
To be honest, though, I'd rather have a nice white
Agreed; I've never really understood the appeal of champagne.
Which right minded individual would choose a glass of champagne over a nice glass of Puligny Montrachet?
It's a good breakfast drink. I'd rather a nice bottle of Ruinart than most other options. It would be the wrong time of day for a burgundy.
Good afternoon all. To show how much I think of Ms May I've put £100 on Andrea, the peoples hope.
God bless people like you. They make informed punters' lives a joy.
And it's people like you that get it wrong on the big important things in life, and seeing the world through Westminster colours specs. Oh and by the way, if you remember I won £600 on Palin being chosen VP. I've got those same vibes for Leadsome.
You just killed her chances. Lol.
Lol - it also may mean the Conservatives end up with 100 MPs like UKIP last time
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of the issue, regardless of political party.
Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
I'm not sure that the centre has shifted so very far - too early to tell. The referendum certainly gave the voters a chance to kick the establishment very hard. I find it hard to understand because living in Spain my perspective is very skewed. Viewed from afar Britain since 2008 has done extraordinarily well - I accept there are areas of deprivation where some have done less well, but the British standard of living is so much better than most people enjoy here - it is difficult not to say the British should be counting their blessings.
I think we and the Spanish are coming from very different places. As Robert pointed out earlier today, they emerged from a fascist dictatorship in recent times. We've never experienced such a thing. They see the EU as the guarantor of their liberties; we see the EU as removing them.
Seems quite bizarre that after a referendum where Leave were demanding greater control in the hands of the UK Parliament that the first action of the post Brexit vote PM would be to deny that sovereign Parliament any say in the critical decision and issue the article 50 letter as an order in council. is there anything in the Leave campaign that has not been proven totally false in the last few days? It seems to me that Bremorse is now so total that any referendum rerun would see Remain win by a landslide. So it would be a very foolhardy PM who takes the disastrous referendum result as the last word on the subject...
You live in Islington don't you.
No, he lives in Tallinn, I believe. Wonderful city, my wife's hometown, but I wouldn't place too high a value on its residents' view of British politics.
FWIW, I have been to Tallinn. I don't think I met your wife.
The problem of the political centre are hinted at by its name. The definition of the centre depends on what other are doing
Whilst the Labour party heads off in a Corbynite direction of it's own, perpendicular to the direction of travel of UKIP and the Tories, who are occupied by Europe, it is impossible to define a coherent and meaningful position between the two.
In short, there is no centre.
Nick Clegg I think is quite close to the liberal political centre. But I'm under no illusions it pretty much is a wilderness here !
Just caught up with the international news to find America heading towards civil war.
yes, thats what I thought... Trump now can't win surely?
Why not? If the situation is so bad after 8 years of Obama, why would people vote for continuity?
I've always seen the black demographic black vote for Hillary as one of her main weak spots. When she's forced to justify why she deserves those votes, what can she say?
Yeah but Brexit won counterintuitivley because we had stability and low and falling unemployment and a recovering economy. People thought OK we have stability now is the time for change. If it looks like there will be instability in America people will latch on to the no change option for fear of something worse. There might be some white americans who have mortgages and who were toying with voting Trump and see that the pound plunged after Brexit and look at the instability at home and in the world and think "Nope", now is not the time to vote for a revolution.
Looks like a recipe for political-legal limbo to me
Can the EU box be shut now it has been opened ?
I don't understand this excitement about having Parliament triggering Article 50. The PM decides when to trigger. Parliament votes on it with the democratic justification, arguably the democratic imperative, of the referendum. Then the countdown begins and we Brexit.
Am I missing something?
Err...Yes. The gorilla in the corner is that Parliament might not approve it. Now that WOULD be a constitutional crisis. A PM can trigger by sending a letter to Brussels on Royal Prerogative - with the referendum as mandate. That's what the Brexiters want (Gove etc) because they fear the 'empire strikes back' from the establishment. The Remainiacs all want a vote - because they're hoping Parliament will put the plebs back in their box. So...it's just a tad touchy whether we do or don't seek a vote on it.
Yes I can see parliament hypothetically could vote against Brexit despite being requested to do so in general by the referendum and on the particular by the government. That unlikely event would undoubtedly trigger a cstands.
Even in an election won by a party with a manifesto for remain, it would be problematic to remain unless that party won in excess of 50% of the popular vote, given the referendum result.
Perfect, in that case we'd have to have another referendum to decide to switch to PR so that if we were to get a Remainer parliament it would be because 50% of the people voted for it.
But then what about those MPs who don't agree with their party line on the issue, as there will be some. Argh, it's a nightmare.
In all seriousness, I don't think, were we to have a quick GE before we declared article 50 which is looking increasingly unlikely, that Labour would stand on a platform of remaining, meaning only the LDs might - but if they were in any sort of position to win a majority, then it would be because public opinion was so strongly for Remain that Labour probably would stand on a remaining platform, so overall remain would have 50%.
Obviously not going to happen, no one thinks it likely.
Quite honestly,though unlikely I can envisage a situation where people might think it justified to ask the public again - but it is that much harder on top of that to envisage a path to actually doing so succeeding to the point of the public being asked, and even that reasking working.
Good afternoon all. To show how much I think of Ms May I've put £100 on Andrea, the peoples hope.
God bless people like you. They make informed punters' lives a joy.
And it's people like you that get it wrong on the big important things in life, and seeing the world through Westminster colours specs. Oh and by the way, if you remember I won £600 on Palin being chosen VP. I've got those same vibes for Leadsome.
I consistently said that the odds for Remain / Leave were nuts. Likewise, I tipped Trump and Cruz way before the majority of the commentariat took either seriously. I won't list all the predictions I've got right but I don't think I've done badly over the years. Certainly in betting terms I'm well up.
But it comes down to reasoning. You say you've bet on Leadsom (no final 'E', by the way), "to show how much I think of Ms May". That's fan-punting, not informed analysis.
I'm not ruling out a Leadsom win but I think it's unlikely and the current odds favour May. They should be somewhere around 9/1.
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of the issue, regardless of political party.
Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
I'm not sure that the centre has shifted so very far - too early to tell. The referendum certainly gave the voters a chance to kick the establishment very hard. I find it hard to understand because living in Spain my perspective is very skewed. Viewed from afar Britain since 2008 has done extraordinarily well - I accept there are areas of deprivation where some have done less well, but the British standard of living is so much better than most people enjoy here - it is difficult not to say the British should be counting their blessings.
If the centre did not exist, Leave would not have promised to give the NHS £350 million a week.
The problem of the political centre are hinted at by its name. The definition of the centre depends on what other are doing
Whilst the Labour party heads off in a Corbynite direction of it's own, perpendicular to the direction of travel of UKIP and the Tories, who are occupied by Europe, it is impossible to define a coherent and meaningful position between the two.
In short, there is no centre.
Nick Clegg I think is quite close to the liberal political centre. But I'm under no illusions it pretty much is a wilderness here !
The centre is presently undefined. Take Europe. There once was an axis between Eurosceptics and those supporting Euro entry. The centre was somewhere in the middle.
That centre is gone. It's over. There will be a new spectrum of engagement with Europe. It is currently undefined. I suspect it will stretch from full isolationism/jingoistic nationalism to EU re-entry.
The economic axis is equally messy. Social Liberalism pretty much won outright.
Looks like a recipe for political-legal limbo to me
Can the EU box be shut now it has been opened ?
I don't understand this excitement about having Parliament triggering Article 50. The PM decides when to trigger. Parliament votes on it with the democratic justification, arguably the democratic imperative, of the referendum. Then the countdown begins and we Brexit.
Am I missing something?
Err...Yes. The gorilla in the corner is that Parliament might not approve it. Now that WOULD be a constitutional crisis. A PM can trigger by sending a letter to Brussels on Royal Prerogative - with the referendum as mandate. That's what the Brexiters want (Gove etc) because they fear the 'empire strikes back' from the establishment. The Remainiacs all want a vote - because they're hoping Parliament will put the plebs back in their box. So...it's just a tad touchy whether we do or don't seek a vote on it.
Yes I can see parliament hypothetically could vote against Brexit despite being requested to do so in general by the referendum and on the particular by the government. That unlikely event would undoubtedly trigger a constitutional crisis, but I not I think a legal one.
Personally I think Leave was a dumb decision, but I believe strongly in a democracy that allows us to make dumb decisions. Barring a formal change of mind, which probably means at least an election on a manifesto where that change of mind was included, the referendum decision stands.
Even in an election won by a party with a manifesto for remain, it would be problematic to remain unless that party won in excess of 50% of the popular vote, given the referendum result.
No. It would not. In our "constitution", a General Election result [ in seats ] is binding whereas a referendum result is only a moral instruction. In any case, since the GE is afterwards, it effectively overrides the referendum.
Just caught up with the international news to find America heading towards civil war.
yes, thats what I thought... Trump now can't win surely?
Why not? If the situation is so bad after 8 years of Obama, why would people vote for continuity?
I've always seen the black demographic black vote for Hillary as one of her main weak spots. When she's forced to justify why she deserves those votes, what can she say?
Yeah but Brexit won counterintuitivley because we had stability and low and falling unemployment and a recovering economy. People thought OK we have stability now is the time for change. If it looks like there will be instability in America people will latch on to the no change option for fear of something worse. There might be some white americans who have mortgages and who were toying with voting Trump and see that the pound plunged after Brexit and look at the instability at home and in the world and think "Nope", now is not the time to vote for a revolution.
That's a good point but it think it's a mistake to conflate the forces driving the Brexit victory too closely with the Trump phenomenon.
Seems quite bizarre that after a referendum where Leave were demanding greater control in the hands of the UK Parliament that the first action of the post Brexit vote PM would be to deny that sovereign Parliament any say in the critical decision and issue the article 50 letter as an order in council. is there anything in the Leave campaign that has not been proven totally false in the last few days? It seems to me that Bremorse is now so total that any referendum rerun would see Remain win by a landslide. So it would be a very foolhardy PM who takes the disastrous referendum result as the last word on the subject...
You live in Islington don't you.
No, he lives in Tallinn, I believe. Wonderful city, my wife's hometown, but I wouldn't place too high a value on its residents' view of British politics.
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of the issue, regardless of political party.
Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
Didn't it expose the electorate as 26% socialist Eurosceptic, 48% liberal centrist Eurotolerant, and 26% libertarian Eurosceptic?
I'm in the 26%
So am I.
Oh, sorry - you meant THAT 26%! :-)
P.S. We're not bad at cycling in this free country of ours.
We're seeing it in a lot of places. Even PB has become markedly less pleasant. People just aren't as prepared to see both sides of an argument any longer.
We're seeing it in a lot of places. Even PB has become markedly less pleasant. People just aren't as prepared to see both sides of an argument any longer.
It's much more pleasant on here now the vote has come and gone
Anyway, back to the whole What's the best champagne to pour over your girlfriend's nipples question....
Avoid verve cliquot (known as the widow). And probably Mumms as well!
The was a very funny story (not at the time) that happened to a friend of mine.
He was head over in heels with a lovely girl who finally threw him over for another man Naturally he was heartbroken and didn't attend the wedding but shortly afterwards saw sense so ordered a crate of champagne for her - and knowing she wanted children really badly requesrlted Mumms with a nice note saying "I hope you soon become one"
Unfortunately the shop ran out of Mumms so decided to substitute...
My sister works for LVMH and we get a very steady supply of Dom, I find other champagne undrinkable.
Dom's not my thing
I do love Giesler but since they stopped shipping it I can't really be bothered to organise a van to epernee. Ruinart is good, as is Salon, but I usually stick to Verve or Tat for everyday drinking.
To be honest, though, I'd rather have a nice white
Prosecco is every bit as good as most champagnes , much better value but does not have the snob rating some people seem to have with champagne ( not meaning yourself Charles ). Boasting about champagne is usually for men with little tadgers and inferiority complexes trying to boost their ego's.
Looks like a recipe for political-legal limbo to me
Can the EU box be shut now it has been opened ?
I don't understand this excitement about having Parliament triggering Article 50. The PM decides when to trigger. Parliament votes on it with the democratic justification, arguably the democratic imperative, of the referendum. Then the countdown begins and we Brexit.
Am I missing something?
Err...Yes. The gorilla in the corner is that Parliament might not approve it. Now that WOULD be a constitutional crisis. A PM can trigger by sending a letter to Brussels on Royal Prerogative - with the referendum as mandate. That's what the Brexiters want (Gove etc) because they fear the 'empire strikes back' from the establishment. The Remainiacs all want a vote - because they're hoping Parliament will put the plebs back in their box. So...it's just a tad touchy whether we do or don't seek a vote on it.
Yes I can see parliament hypothetically could vote against Brexit despite being requested to do so in general by the referendum and on the particular by the government. That unlikely event would undoubtedly trigger a constitutional crisis, but I not I think a legal one.
Personally I think Leave was a dumb decision, but I believe strongly in a democracy that allows us to make dumb decisions. Barring a formal change of mind, which probably means at least an election on a manifesto where that change of mind was included, the referendum decision stands.
Even in an election won by a party with a manifesto for remain, it would be problematic to remain unless that party won in excess of 50% of the popular vote, given the referendum result.
No. It would not. In our "constitution", a General Election result [ in seats ] is binding whereas a referendum result is only a moral instruction. In any case, since the GE is afterwards, it effectively overrides the referendum.
I think that is very complacent and legalistic thinking. But, by all means, if you wish to let discontent fester and explode, proceed that route.
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
I'm not sure that the centre has shifted so very far - too early to tell. The referendum certainly gave the voters a chance to kick the establishment very hard. I find it hard to understand because living in Spain my perspective is very skewed. Viewed from afar Britain since 2008 has done extraordinarily well - I accept there are areas of deprivation where some have done less well, but the British standard of living is so much better than most people enjoy here - it is difficult not to say the British should be counting their blessings.
Arrogance - there are times where an inflated view of your importance can be useful. This was not that time. Those people saying 'we can do this now, we can do that now', it's naive in the extreme. If we have a pragmatic new PM then we might escape with something short of awful, but the idea of an unknown, 'everything will be okay' person at the helm is frightening. Those people who voted is into this mess and who are now doubling down by supporting Leadsom have lost all touch with reality.
We're seeing it in a lot of places. Even PB has become markedly less pleasant. People just aren't as prepared to see both sides of an argument any longer.
Funny you should say that, but I left PB a couple of years ago because I thought it was becoming insufferably unpleasant. Now I'm back, and it seems much more agreeable than I remember.
This place was always a running gun battle, glossed with a thin patina of panpartisan civility at least until after the lagershed.
Just caught up with the international news to find America heading towards civil war.
yes, thats what I thought... Trump now can't win surely?
Why not? If the situation is so bad after 8 years of Obama, why would people vote for continuity?
I've always seen the black demographic black vote for Hillary as one of her main weak spots. When she's forced to justify why she deserves those votes, what can she say?
She won't be. If anyone was going to challenge her for those votes it would have been Sanders; it certainly won't be Trump.
It's something of a mystery frankly why Sanders *didn't* compete more strongly for the votes of African Americans which the system clearly works against. On education, crime (except gun control) and in general support for the underdog, he had a strong message yet never really got it through.
Hillary may have a problem getting the black vote out (vis a vis Obama anyway), but those that do will be more overwhelmingly for her than for anyone in recent years.
Talk of a direct business tax and FTT to fund the budget.
It's one of the reasons why Osborne got such a good reception for his "London = No. 1" press event/letter. The rumour of a FTT came to us early on Tuesday and was basically confirmed yesterday.
That's an argument why it is considered a good idea for another vote of some kind - personally I don't think that makes it likely there will be one in any form, even if it is a good idea, because of the politics. May, if she wins, could say a GE or referendum should confirm the decision or the particular deal she makes for Brexit because an asteroid will hit the earth if we don't, and she still couldn't get it through parliament.
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of the issue, regardless of political party.
Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
Didn't it expose the electorate as 26% socialist Eurosceptic, 48% liberal centrist Eurotolerant, and 26% libertarian Eurosceptic?
I'm in the 26%
So am I.
Oh, sorry - you meant THAT 26%! :-)
P.S. We're not bad at cycling in this free country of ours.
Even in an age of ridiculousness there is something preposterous about the sight of so many prominent Leavers clutching their pearls in horror as they contemplate the possibility – the real possibility – that Andrea Leadsom could become the next leader of the Conservative party and, by golly, Prime Minister too.
I mean, where do they think she came from? Who created her? Mrs Leadsom’s credentials to occupy the highest political office in the land come down to one single fact: she is the most virulently eurosceptic candidate available. That’s a powerful thing, however, and those Leavers who think their creation can be safely kept in the laboratory may yet have cause to regret their complacency. Because it’s not as easy as that. Sometimes things escape.http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/brexit-encouraged-eruption-nasty-tawdry-nativism-anyone-surprised/
Even in the age of ridiculousness, this is a truly ridiculous article.
This whole campaign and post referendum is extraordinary in how it has peeled back the patina of rationality to expose raw emotions on both sides of the issue, regardless of political party.
Makes me wonder whether we were overdue such a political bloodletting.
It's by Alex Massie. His referendum coverage has hardly covered him in glory. His article post-Jo Cox was disgusting. I read him because we all need to avoid living in a bubble where we only read things we agree with. I do find him very hard to take.
As Raphael Behr said, the vote punctured the prevailing belief among both Conservative and Labour politicians that there is a natural centrist, liberal, majority among the electorate. Alex Massie still hasn't come to terms with that.
Didn't it expose the electorate as 26% socialist Eurosceptic, 48% liberal centrist Eurotolerant, and 26% libertarian Eurosceptic?
The centre ground is the new wilderness I think ! Can feel it in my bones
The post-War liberal ascendancy is crumbling. UKIP, Trump and this referendum to get rid of the EU are all testament to that. It makes me sad as someone who thinks liberalism is better than all other political ideas. We haven't done a good job of selling the benefits of liberalism and we have made a bad job of protecting people from the downsides of globalisation.
and far too many illiberal but expedient measures have been sold as the liberal solution to a disbelieving public, giving liberalism a bad name.
Not helped by having a major political party that should more correctly be called the Illiberal Statists
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
Talk of a direct business tax and FTT to fund the budget.
It's one of the reasons why Osborne got such a good reception for his "London = No. 1" press event/letter. The rumour of a FTT came to us early on Tuesday and was basically confirmed yesterday.
Thanks Max. I knew there was no budget carryover, but I hadn't appreciated that they were looking at a €50 billion shortfall by 2020. They've elided the entire 2016 Youth unemployment scheme. That's a very strange decision.
There's plenty of good reasons they would not want to be punitive toward us, but equally reasons they do not want to in actuality or perception be too generous on us
Savvy negotiations will be needed from us to secure a good deal.
I don't think the rEU will aim to punish us. They think we are doing that to ourselves already. We will find negotiating from the outside will be a much tougher gig than what we are used to as members of the organisation. Members are essentially in the same boat. Everyone wants to something from the negotiations so the deal is crafted to ensure everyone gets one thing they want.
Now everyone will want something from Britain: Germany, the ability to sell cars; Spain, maybe the fish; Malta, perhaps preferential treatment for higher education; Poland, access for workers; France our finance industry and so on. Each of those countries has a say on on Britain getting a deal. You want us to vote on an extension to Article 50? Not a problem, here's our price. You want us to agree to EEA? Fine. Could we have these things, please.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay. The stupidity of a this or something else choice got us into this mess and having no vote at all would give us decades of the issue never having been settled and its accompanying political turmoil.
There's plenty of good reasons they would not want to be punitive toward us, but equally reasons they do not want to in actuality or perception be too generous on us
Savvy negotiations will be needed from us to secure a good deal.
I don't think the rEU will aim to punish us. They think we are doing that to ourselves already. We will find negotiating from the outside will be a much tougher gig than what we are used to as members of the organisation. Members are essentially in the same boat. Everyone wants to something from the negotiations so the deal is crafted to ensure everyone gets one thing they want.
Now everyone will want something from Britain: Germany, the ability to sell cars; Spain, maybe the fish; Malta, perhaps preferential treatment for higher education; Poland, access for workers; France our finance industry and so on. Each of those countries has a say on on Britain getting a deal. You want us to vote on an extension to Article 50? Not a problem, here's our price. You want us to agree to EEA? Fine. Could we have these things, please.
Spot on. Despite what Leavers think, we have not got too many cards to play with.
Have one side become so used to getting their way, that this is their first big loss?
It's quite a big loss. Unlike General Elections it's pretty much unreverseable and brings with it financial loss in the short to medium term at least.
Chuck into that the casual xenophobia of the leave campaign and the political mess of the aftermath and you can see why many are upset.
Indeed this loss is a threat to the identity of many people; for those who identify with what they consider the values of being part of Europe, losing this times means their values and their outlook on the world have been forcibly stripped away.
In politics as usual your side losing doesn't threaten your identity - you hold on to your identity and try and win next time. That need to hold on to your identity can sometimes lead to electing strange leaders....
And that's an argument why Leadsom won't win. In power, Tories don't feel the need to bolster their identity by electing a parody of a Tory.
The slow peeling away of our national decision making and law making and sending it to Brussels over the past 40 years has been a gradual grating loss of identity for many Leavers. Those that feel affinity for the EU, and the loss of it last week are just experiencing what many others have felt over the last four decades, compressed into a very short time frame.
We're seeing it in a lot of places. Even PB has become markedly less pleasant. People just aren't as prepared to see both sides of an argument any longer.
Funny you should say that, but I left PB a couple of years ago because I thought it was becoming insufferably unpleasant. Now I'm back, and it seems much more agreeable than I remember.
This place was always a running gun battle, glossed with a thin patina of panpartisan civility at least until after the lagershed.
Agreed. There's no doubt that it's a far, far nicer place than when I left a year or two ago. In those days, there were one or two frequent posters whose behaviour was borderline criminal (death wishes, threats of violence, racism).
Thankfully those people have gone (I assume banned forever). I think the people on here are on the whole pretty sterling folk. I disagree with many vehemently but the debate, while robust, is usually maintained in the right spirit.
It's a pretty intelligent forum, and still has great moments of humour and wit. Long may it continue!
My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.
As might have been mentioned a few times at the time, none of the people that made those offers were or are in government. Mrs May is going to be PM, and she was for Remain. Do you usually believe pledges made by campaign groups ?
Have one side become so used to getting their way, that this is their first big loss?
It's quite a big loss. Unlike General Elections it's pretty much unreverseable and brings with it financial loss in the short to medium term at least.
Chuck into that the casual xenophobia of the leave campaign and the political mess of the aftermath and you can see why many are upset.
Indeed this loss is a threat to the identity of many people; for those who identify with what they consider the values of being part of Europe, losing this times means their values and their outlook on the world have been forcibly stripped away.
In politics as usual your side losing doesn't threaten your identity - you hold on to your identity and try and win next time. That need to hold on to your identity can sometimes lead to electing strange leaders....
And that's an argument why Leadsom won't win. In power, Tories don't feel the need to bolster their identity by electing a parody of a Tory.
The slow peeling away of our national decision making and law making and sending it to Brussels over the past 40 years has been a gradual grating loss of identity for many Leavers. Those that feel affinity for the EU, and the loss of it last week are just experiencing what many others have felt over the last four decades, compressed into a very short time frame.
Funnily enough - for about 20ys I've increasingly felt stripped of my British identity. As a result of devolution/EU I've substituted being a Brit for Englishness. I even bought a 40ft flagpole and flew St George flag since then too. Post 23rd June - I want to embrace the Union Jack again.
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay.
It can't be that.
We can't stay if we have triggered Article 50, and we can't negotiate until we do.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay. The stupidity of a this or something else choice got us into this mess and having no vote at all would give us decades of the issue never having been settled and its accompanying political turmoil.
Once article 50 is triggered we're on a one way street out. The EU have already stated that no substantive negotiations until Art 50 triggered.
If we trigger art 50 we're out so a referendum won't be about staying but rejoining - without the rebate and a commitment to join the Euro Schengen etc.
'My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.'
Just like Sadiq Khan then ,maybe we should have a re-run of the London mayoral as he clearly lied about his fares freeze.
Less than two months for the lies to surface,must be a record.
Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze ... - The Guardian www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan 8 Jun 2016 - London mayor, who had pledged residents 'won't pay a penny more' for travel, says fares freeze applies only to single journeys.
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
That's £1bn less to slash from your beloved NHS. Tuition fees are easily justifiable since it is basically a middle-class subsidy.
The EU have already stated that no substantive negotiations until Art 50 triggered..
Yeah, but that's tosh. What are they going to do if Mrs May says 'We need to sit down and talk because the UK will not be in a position to pull the Article 50 trigger until we've got heads of agreement'?
Anyway the negotiations aren't with the EU, much though Mr Juncker would like them to be.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay.
It can't be that.
We can't stay if we have triggered Article 50, and we can't negotiate until we do.
Then we're stuffed. These people really didn't think the nature of e vote through at all. Maybe a vote on whether to trigger article 50 then, with two actual proposals, stay or what we think we can get, rather then what we have versus pie in the sky. It's a total disaster the way the question was asked.
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
"So, it's the fault of the young voters then" Frankly, Yes...what was the turnout of young voters in the referendum 35% or something like that ...Jeez it was the most important vote in a generation that was always going to affect them more than any other social group and 65% of them didn't vote !
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
"So, it's the fault of the young voters then" Frankly, Yes...what was the turnout of young voters in the referendum 35% or something like that ...Jeez it was the most important vote in a generation that was always going to affect them more than any other social group and 65% of them didn't vote !
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay.
No, the choice would have to be this or nothing (WTO rules).
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
That's £1bn less to slash from your beloved NHS. Tuition fees are easily justifiable since it is basically a middle-class subsidy.
I know the feeling. That comes with switching from Labour to LD in 1997. The LDs never win anything. I gave up on them last time and abstained by voting Ukip. We held the labour majority to 20,000 but everyone around here voted Leave in the referendum.
At last. Become a Leaver, it does create a warm feeling and you can smile at the more extreme Remain reactions. Ah, diddums.
I don’t think I know anyone under 40 who voted Leave, and I know many of them are are distraught at the prospect of bringing back borders.
It's clear that many people in their thirties did vote Leave (though still outnumbered by those who voted Remain). 41/42 seems to be the tipping point at which a majority of people switched to Leave.
The only really big outliers seem to have been 18-24 year olds, and those aged 65+.
Those few 18-24 year olds who got off their arses and voted, that is. Unlike the arthritic army, waiting on new hips and knees, who crawled to the polling station anyway.
(OK, so they may have had postal votes. But my point stands....they could be arsed to wield the pencil.)
Certainly the young bear a heavy responsibility for the final result. their unwillingness to engage in the political process is so very depressing.
I agree - I look back to 2010 with the Lib Dems around 25% to 30% in the polls and young voters in particular looking forward to a world without tuition fees. The only problem was that, come the day, they didn't get out there and bloody vote.
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
"Why did Nick Clegg cross the street ? " - Ans: "Because he promised, he wouldn't."
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
Whether you're for or against, tuition fees are absolubte chicken feed compared to the costs of Brexit/Iraq.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay.
It can't be that.
We can't stay if we have triggered Article 50, and we can't negotiate until we do.
Then we're stuffed. These people really didn't think the nature of e vote through at all. Maybe a vote on whether to trigger article 50 then, with two actual proposals, stay or what we think we can get, rather then what we have versus pie in the sky. It's a total disaster the way the question was asked.
Actually the question was quite clear, whether or not we should leave the EU. The result was we should, so we should.
'My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.'
Just like Sadiq Khan then ,maybe we should have a re-run of the London mayoral as he clearly lied about his fares freeze.
Less than two months for the lies to surface,must be a record.
Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze ... - The Guardian www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan 8 Jun 2016 - London mayor, who had pledged residents 'won't pay a penny more' for travel, says fares freeze applies only to single journeys.
Absolutely. If you make pledges and then break them you can expect to be held to account. Nobody is going to forget that extra £350 million a week extra for the NHS.
It may be one reason why the Tories might want to think long and hard about making Andrea Leadsom the PM.
The EU have already stated that no substantive negotiations until Art 50 triggered..
Yeah, but that's tosh. What are they going to do if Mrs May says 'We need to sit down and talk because we are not going to be in a position to pull the Article 50 trigger until we've got heads of agreement'?
Anyway the negotiations aren't with the EU, much though Mr Juncker would like them to be.
With the anger in Germany I'd be surprised if Mr Junker was still commission president in September when we have a new PM. The commission's insistence in enforcing the letter of the law on Maastricht deficit rules and the new BRRD is losing support among previous key backers. The Spanish, Portuguese, Italians and Germans are now opposed to him continuing in the position.
Someone wrote about it here before, if Mrs Merkel had listened to Dave the Brexit would never have been on the table. It's to their pity that they didn't take him seriously.
ABC are now predicting 76 seats for the Coalition, 69 for Labour, 5 for Others as the final result in Australia. Flynn, Herbert, and Capricornia look like they'll fall the way of the Coalition, on the back of late votes.
'My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.'
Just like Sadiq Khan then ,maybe we should have a re-run of the London mayoral as he clearly lied about his fares freeze.
Less than two months for the lies to surface,must be a record.
Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze ... - The Guardian www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan 8 Jun 2016 - London mayor, who had pledged residents 'won't pay a penny more' for travel, says fares freeze applies only to single journeys.
Absolutely. If you make pledges and then break them you can expect to be held to account. Nobody is going to forget that extra £350 million a week extra for the NHS.
It may be one reason why the Tories might want to think long and hard about making Andrea Leadsom the PM.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay.
No, the choice would have to be this or nothing (WTO rules).
You really want a general election on one question? Okay, if it has to be, then it has to be. We have to avoid a situation where people don't get a say on the actual proposals.
The EU have already stated that no substantive negotiations until Art 50 triggered..
Yeah, but that's tosh. What are they going to do if Mrs May says 'We need to sit down and talk because the UK will not be in a position to pull the Article 50 trigger until we've got heads of agreement'?
Anyway the negotiations aren't with the EU, much though Mr Juncker would like them to be.
Article 50 negotiations are with the European Council, which is the collective of the heads of state government, run by Donald Tusk. While Tusk could probably set out a broad framework for discussions before Article 50 it is triggered it can't actually decide on anything until the heads of state get together in one room to hammer out what they are going to do.
My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.
As might have been mentioned a few times at the time, none of the people that made those offers were or are in government. Mrs May is going to be PM, and she was for Remain. Do you usually believe pledges made by campaign groups ?
I wish the Tories the very best of luck with that argument - especially the Leave cabinet ministers.
This week's New Scientist is pretty upbeat about the effect of Brexit on the environment. It seems that the UK has been responsible for blocking or watering down many EU environmental regulations in recent years. Because of this, future EU environment laws are likely to be stronger without the input of the UK, but the UK will still have to abide by them in the event of a Norway-type arrangement.
The new vote would have to be on the leave proposal after negotiations, an election isn't enough as It confuses that decision with too many other factors. A simple question with a binary choice this time, this or stay. The stupidity of a this or something else choice got us into this mess and having no vote at all would give us decades of the issue never having been settled and its accompanying political turmoil.
Once article 50 is triggered we're on a one way street out. The EU have already stated that no substantive negotiations until Art 50 triggered.
If we trigger art 50 we're out so a referendum won't be about staying but rejoining - without the rebate and a commitment to join the Euro Schengen etc.
In effect the choice would be to accept the agreement or leave with no agreement i.e. WTO. We could not rejoin until we had first left.
Comments
A stale leadership class is on the way out and the property bubble will burst. I can’t see the bad news"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble
Loaded question which, curiously enough ,was used as a term in the European Social Study regarding refugees.
The centre has been shown to be as potentially pernicious and destructive as right or left.
Look at Tony Blair
He epitomises 'the centre'
But then what about those MPs who don't agree with their party line on the issue, as there will be some. Argh, it's a nightmare.
In all seriousness, I don't think, were we to have a quick GE before we declared article 50 which is looking increasingly unlikely, that Labour would stand on a platform of remaining, meaning only the LDs might - but if they were in any sort of position to win a majority, then it would be because public opinion was so strongly for Remain that Labour probably would stand on a remaining platform, so overall remain would have 50%.
Obviously not going to happen, no one thinks it likely.
Quite honestly,though unlikely I can envisage a situation where people might think it justified to ask the public again - but it is that much harder on top of that to envisage a path to actually doing so succeeding to the point of the public being asked, and even that reasking working.
But it comes down to reasoning. You say you've bet on Leadsom (no final 'E', by the way), "to show how much I think of Ms May". That's fan-punting, not informed analysis.
I'm not ruling out a Leadsom win but I think it's unlikely and the current odds favour May. They should be somewhere around 9/1.
That centre is gone. It's over. There will be a new spectrum of engagement with Europe. It is currently undefined. I suspect it will stretch from full isolationism/jingoistic nationalism to EU re-entry.
The economic axis is equally messy. Social Liberalism pretty much won outright.
There currently is no centre.
Jon?
Federer into five sets again.
https://medium.com/@ruthie_dee/no-longer-welcome-in-my-own-home-4672dc7a08a5#.vtu8sm8qw
http://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/meps-demand-increases-to-the-eu-budget-renew-calls-for-own-resources/?nl_ref=16337325
Talk of a direct business tax and FTT to fund the budget.
Oh, sorry - you meant THAT 26%! :-)
P.S. We're not bad at cycling in this free country of ours.
John Traynor
13 hrs ago
A very insincere blog that follows one of several standard methodologies of criticising support for a genuine alternative to capitalist exploitation
https://twitter.com/spencelivermore/status/751417785960525825
This place was always a running gun battle, glossed with a thin patina of panpartisan civility at least until after the lagershed.
It's something of a mystery frankly why Sanders *didn't* compete more strongly for the votes of African Americans which the system clearly works against. On education, crime (except gun control) and in general support for the underdog, he had a strong message yet never really got it through.
Hillary may have a problem getting the black vote out (vis a vis Obama anyway), but those that do will be more overwhelmingly for her than for anyone in recent years.
Not helped by having a major political party that should more correctly be called the Illiberal Statists
Had they done it and delivered the Lib Dems with possibly 100 seats, maybe just maybe they wouldn't have had to ditch the tuition fee pledge and the students would have benefited.
If only half of the students who claimed that they had been betrayed by the Lib Dems after voting for them in 2010 had actually VOTED then we wouldn't had embarked on our journey down the pan.
It's no coincidence that the Tories dish out cash to the old and stuff the young - old voters vote - young ones don't !
He's still using that dodgy way of talking about the economy though. Not a good look.
Now everyone will want something from Britain: Germany, the ability to sell cars; Spain, maybe the fish; Malta, perhaps preferential treatment for higher education; Poland, access for workers; France our finance industry and so on. Each of those countries has a say on on Britain getting a deal. You want us to vote on an extension to Article 50? Not a problem, here's our price. You want us to agree to EEA? Fine. Could we have these things, please.
Thankfully those people have gone (I assume banned forever). I think the people on here are on the whole pretty sterling folk. I disagree with many vehemently but the debate, while robust, is usually maintained in the right spirit.
It's a pretty intelligent forum, and still has great moments of humour and wit. Long may it continue!
It's a peculiar thing I didn't expect to feel.
File under crap..
So, it's the fault of the young voters then.
The Tuition Fee betrayal saved £1bn.
You may have noticed that after 6 years, this week the Tories have dumped their policy of a balanced budget.
They are still borrowing £60bn a year. It would have been £61bn otherwise.
We can't stay if we have triggered Article 50, and we can't negotiate until we do.
If we trigger art 50 we're out so a referendum won't be about staying but rejoining - without the rebate and a commitment to join the Euro Schengen etc.
'My guess is that these pledges - solemnly made - will soon be seen as lies.'
Just like Sadiq Khan then ,maybe we should have a re-run of the London mayoral as he clearly lied about his fares freeze.
Less than two months for the lies to surface,must be a record.
Sadiq Khan accused of breaking London fare freeze ... - The Guardian
www.theguardian.com › Politics › Sadiq Khan
8 Jun 2016 - London mayor, who had pledged residents 'won't pay a penny more' for travel, says fares freeze applies only to single journeys.
Anyway the negotiations aren't with the EU, much though Mr Juncker would like them to be.
It may be one reason why the Tories might want to think long and hard about making Andrea Leadsom the PM.
Someone wrote about it here before, if Mrs Merkel had listened to Dave the Brexit would never have been on the table. It's to their pity that they didn't take him seriously.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-pledges-troops-frigate-jets-as-nato-faces-off-against-russia/article30816617/
stategovernment, run by Donald Tusk. While Tusk could probably set out a broad framework for discussions before Article 50 it is triggered it can't actually decide on anything until the heads of state get together in one room to hammer out what they are going to do.https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27846957&exp=e