Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets this is a much tighter rac
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets this is a much tighter race than at the start of previous CON membership ballots
Until the 2001 CON leadership race the final decision was taken by MPs and there was no role for the members. So if the current battle had been held under pre-2001 rules Theresa May would now be moving into Downing Street.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
In 2005, we arrived at this point having already had potential Leaders make their pitch to the membership at Party conference, and with campaigns running from the moment Howard announced he would be standing down. i.e. this point in the 2005 race was already 3 months in, not two weeks in.
Wannabe Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom thinks all websites should be rated – just like movies
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/07/08/leadsom_thinks_websites_should_be_rated/
Well you could blindfold her first, then compare Champagne with Tesco Sparkling Water, and see which she prefers.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/mi6-must-learn-how-to-tell-a-spy-from-a-fantasist-5b9hsznnh
https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/751313098531827712
Just perhaps something to be thankful for?
RobD in the mornings is hard to beat at the First Game!
The was a very funny story (not at the time) that happened to a friend of mine.
He was head over in heels with a lovely girl who finally threw him over for another man Naturally he was heartbroken and didn't attend the wedding but shortly afterwards saw sense so ordered a crate of champagne for her - and knowing she wanted children really badly requesrlted Mumms with a nice note saying "I hope you soon become one"
Unfortunately the shop ran out of Mumms so decided to substitute...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/28/choosing-camerons-successor-the-process-and-the-possibles/
I'm comfortable describing both Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom as epigoni.
Needless to say he didn't change my mind. It did make me wonder how much campaigning there is going to be by non-Tory members who voted and campaigned to leave. I don't think his phone calls are going very well, he seemed exasperated. If his experiences are anything to go by then the Vote Leave Tories seem to be falling behind Theresa. I expect that the Leave.EU ones may fall in line for Leadsom, but I'm told that the 30,000 figure Banks has gone on about is some distance over the mark.
Bolly for me, then Mumm.
Have to say, looking at the actual article:
"So if one is drawing up an identikit of the next Conservative leader, anyone who is perceived to be trustworthy, Eurosceptic, old school Conservative, a unifier and consultative is going to be off to a flying start."
does seem to hit the mark pretty well.
She's turning into a latter day Gordon Brown with a dash of Sion Simon.
Bloomberg: So the pound is now the world's worst-performing major currency https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/pound-overtakes-argentine-peso-to-become-2016-s-worst-performer
On the flip side, feel the sovereignty.
I do have to keep telling myself to cheer up that Mrs May is so much better than Cameron & Osborne.
Does anyone if Leadsom has published her tax returns yet as promised ?
If not, what's she got to hide?
As ever the lord giveth with the one hand and taketh with the other.
In fact, he wasn't particularly suited to long-term politics at all. More of an empire-accumulator rather than -builder.
I've not thought of a hustings question to ask. I want to make it an awkward financial question which will expose her lack of City credentials. Not that her insistence that Sterling hasn't been hit isn't enough, mind.
Thanks.
(Sobs)
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/751386785670987776
My mood swings, but today I think, sadly, it'll work and the most unqualified and frankly idiotic PM in living memory will be in by September.
Mr Leadsom is a house-husband with lots of directorships.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/08/may-v-leadsom-husbands-measure/
Can the EU box be shut now it has been opened ?
The polling was pretty clear, not only that may had a substantial lead - and an enormous one among Tories that voted Remain - but that (in slight contradiction to that last point), stance on the EURef was not rated all that highly, below ability to unite the party and perceived effectiveness in office - both of which May scores well on.
The MPs vote will also matter. Labour is providing an object lesson in the perils of dividing the leadership from the parliamentary party. Leadsom only won the support of 1 in 5 Tory MPs in the first round and 1 in 4 yesterday. While members won't like being told what to do (and so May's campaign is unlikely to say so, so explicitly), it will swing the minds of some wavering voters.
There is a long way to go before polls close - or even before they open - but either May will to mess up badly or Leadsom will have to overcome an unsteady start and display levels of leadership that have so far eluded her, if the outcome is to be anything other than a formality.
In fact I think the whole focus on her CV is overdone. She had a respectable, middle-ranking career in finance. She doesn't seem to have been a high-flyer, but so what? It's still useful background experience. The only real problem is the bigging-up of it and trying to pretend it qualifies her for a top role despite her lack of top-level political experience.
It does, however, address the heart of the issue with financial services. How she responds (synthetic Deutsche Bank shares...Eurodollar analogy...our own regs....) will tell much about whether she understands what's at stake in her specialist subject.
However with my conversion to the leave cause the daily mail and I are absolutely on the same page with their fulsome backing of Theresa May and I am now back to handing my wife her puzzle pages and reading it from front to back once again.
Funny business this politics
Q: "What about the economy?"
Leadsom: "I just think people want an economy that works."
Q: "Yes, but what does that mean? What's your policy?"
L: "I just think people want someone who will be able to run the economy."
Q: "well of course they do, but what about inflation, what about sterling, what our your plans?"
L: "I just think there's too much focus on negative stuff like that; ordinary, decent people just want an economy that works."
[continue for an hour and then the weather]
As you say, no shame in a middle-ranking career in finance. The main critique of La Leadsom is that she is simply not up to the job.
Unlike us Soft Southerners you hardy northern types are used to dealing with inclement weather!
By itself, it disqualifies her, to my mind
That means that there is in your mind only ever a one way ratchet. You can never escape a stifling political arrangement because it will cause economic adjustment. Which is worse - Sterling finding a new normal (and long overdue) or your kids never having a meaningful vote in their lives? I voted Leave with eyes wide open (and am £55k richer now in Sterling terms). Many many voters had 40 years of frustration to vent. Of course it was going to be decision for the ages and the history books. It wasn't about the money!
It will effect some purists/City types who will have a view, but the rest really don't care that much.
Let's hope that doesn't happen.
"Mrs Leadsom, given that your policy of having unilateral restrictions on free movement will force Britain out of the single market, how do you propose to ensure that the City of London and it's great institutions are able to continue functioning as normal outside of the regulatory framework in which the UK had a prominent role writing?"
Or is that too long?
Am I missing something?
http://www.thompsonaero.com/vantage
To forestall the representatives of the Remainian Inquisition on here, yes, some days I regret my vote, others I am utterly carefree. Colour me human.
I was certainly wobbling yesterday. I was expecting May vs Johnson. I could have lived with May vs Gove. We're now essentially flipping a coin to see if we're going to let an inexperienced techno-twit lead the country through one of its most challenging periods.
I don't see that I could have reasonably been expected to consider that as even a remote possibility
PS I agree with Patrick's point. There is never a good time to do radical things. That's why radical things, by and large, don't happen.
My point was the Leadsom specifically denied the £ would get hit, which is either a lie, or an idiocy, or an idiotic lie.
Fair dinkum. Agreed.
It is the same problem Labour faces. Yes, neither Corbyn nor Leadsom is up to the job but the alternatives are hardly more attractive.
Mayor of Dallas has also done a sterling job, what a horrible situation. Final shooter blew himself up with a bomb.
Mostly I try not to think about it.
The tackiest thing is eating at The Ivy - if you order Krug, they give you different glasses to show off with.
Just thinking out loud:
Mrs Leadsom, to date, the UK has had a prominent role in shaping Europe-wide financial services regulation. How will you ensure the City of London continues to makes its voice heard now that these regulations, which our City institutions must follow, will be set in Brussels without our input?