politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more fr

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: MP on Leadsom: "she's Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt". Gasps when she replied "with trade envoys" to "how will she negotiate new deal with EU" Q.

She should have said that we've already had offers from NZ for the use of their trade negotiators, and would be seeking similar arrangements with our other allies.

chestnut said:

Have I misunderstood this?

UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?

Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?

And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?

They might do. Businesses are people too, if that makes sense. If they were purely rational actors, everyone would be based in Singapore (#1 in the World Bank's ease of doing business index).

If you look at the UK compared to likely EU destinations using the same index:

UK: 6th
Eire: 17th
France: 27th
Netherlands: 28th
Belgium: 43rd
Germany: 15th
Italy (ha ha ha) 44th

We're pretty business friendly. But some companies will want to be based in an EU country proper.

Andrea Leadsom is either remarkably maladroit or she has made an unfortunate opponent in the Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1400650/wikipedia-questions-arise-for-leadsom-as-she-faces-increasing-pressure-from-theresa-may-to-release-her-tax-return/

Either way it does not bode well for her.

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Jobabob said:

RobD said:

Jobabob said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SeanT said:

Razedabode said:

John_M said:

Razedabode said:

AndyJS said:

Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.

The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.

They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.

It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.

I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.

That's how idiotic British politics has become

He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.

No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable

Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.

Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?

Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.

And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.

Unlikely to gain marginals in the south IMO. The areas that voted remain outside of London are rich Tory shires. They will vote Tory unto the end of days.

Well, yes, but the End of Days could actually be next Thursday. About tea time.

This is different. I think a lot of REMAINIANS, in their panic, might lend Labour their vote just once. To reverse the referendum

That would be the idea. Just a shot in the dark, but with the Corbynites in charge of the party, Labour have nothing left to lose.

HurstLlama said:

No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.

Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.

Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!

MaxPB said:

John_N4 said:

MaxPB said:

Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.

Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.

That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.

And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.

Oh dear me Britain First back Leadweight

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_577d0176e4b0c9460801ceb2?edition=uk&rksjcnabjzwvims4i

@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9

Brilliant first set tie-breaker between Murray and Tsonga. 12-10 to Murray

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

John_N4 said:

MaxPB said:

Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.

Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.

That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.

And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.

Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.

20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.

It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?

If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.

SeanT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.

Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.

And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.

1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.

This is a breeze by comparison.

And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.

This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.

A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.

So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.

Cry me a river.

Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.

Brexit gets better and better.

That's if your kids haven't been forced to emigrate, because the economy is a wasteland.

If things carry on the way they are my kids WILL be forced to emigrate because they will face the choice of being their employers b**** due to a £500,000 debt for a two bedroom terrace or handing so much of their salary over to rentiers that they would be no worse off it was an economic wasteland.

MarkSenior said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.

Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.

And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.

1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.

This is a breeze by comparison.

And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.

This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.

A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.

So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.

Cry me a river.

Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.

Brexit gets better and better.

In a few years time your kids will be thinking of emigrating as there will be no jobs left in this country . They will also be blaming those who voted for Brexit including their father .

If things carry on the way they are (ie pre referendum) my kids WILL be forced to emigrate because they will face the choice of being their employers b**** due to a £500,000 debt for a two bedroom terrace or handing so much of their salary over to rentiers that they would be no worse off it was an economic wasteland.

SeanT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

John_N4 said:

If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?

If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?

It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.

We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.

After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....

In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.

Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.

Yes. In fact we might not even have to make the threat. The EU is also in a perilous economic situation. A badly handled Brexit, that fucks the British economy, will seriously endanger them as well - especially Italy, Greece etc. Confidence could desert all of Europe, not just London

So all sides will, however reluctantly, be forced to work towards a compromise where the City and the UK do alright.

That's my optimistic alter ego talking there.

I think the message to the EU is, when in a greenhouse, it is inadvisable to throw stones.

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

John_N4 said:

MaxPB said:

Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.

Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.

That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.

And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.

Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.

20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.

It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?

If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.

Leaving the Single Market really WOULD be an act of national self harm. Hugely destabilising. And for what? To prevent Europeans coming here, who won't be coming anyway, thanks to the inevitable recession?

I will eat my hat if we leave the single market

Eyes are going fuzzy so I'm off for the evening. May listen to Murray and see how Wales get on.

Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

AndyJS said:

Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.

After today, they have zero chance.

There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?

I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.

Only caught a short clip but managed to follow the text on Sparrow’s G’live – I thought it a measured response all things considered, especially due to the hyped claims of his desire to bandy ‘war criminal’ around.

As I said the other day, Corbyn doesn't do personal stuff. Not for IDS. Not for Blair. The leftie view is that you always go for the system that produces disasters (in this case the love of invading people to change their regimes), and don't let yourself be distracted by arguing about individuals.

The problem with that is that the media really only like personal stuff. If Corbyn had shouted "Blair is a war crimnal" he'd have been on every front page. As it is, he'll be on page 7. But he doesn't care.

It's like being against tax avoidance and spending your energies trying to harass Amazon - even if you win the argument and Amazon is ashamed and changes its policies, you've actually made no progress on the underlying problem.

@chestnut

'Have I misunderstood this?

UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?

Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?

And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'


France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.

John_M said:

Razedabode said:

John_M said:

Razedabode said:

AndyJS said:

Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.

The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.

They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.

It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.

Honestly, I don't care who they pick. I'd like a Labour party with some actual practical policies and a coherent approach. At the moment, it's like looking at a series of T-shirt slogans, all just hanging on a rack any old how.

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9

Disgraceful - this must be it for him. time for Charlie Falconer to stand down.

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.

Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.

Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!

Sorry I thought you were talking about overall migration when you said 200,000. That from the EU is already less than that isn't it.

Yes, I was. Obviously May is going to have to fix non-EU migration at the same time. I would look at banning family reunions as a starter.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

John_N4 said:

MaxPB said:

Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.

Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.

That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.

And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.

Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.

20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.

It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?

If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.

Leaving the Single Market really WOULD be an act of national self harm. Hugely destabilising. And for what? To prevent Europeans coming here, who won't be coming anyway, thanks to the inevitable recession?

I will eat my hat if we leave the single market

I will eat my hat if we keep FoM and the number of people coming here from countries where the minimum wage is less than a pound an hour whilst ours rises to £9 per hour plus benefits actually falls.

I do struggle to understand the number of people, especially the older ones, who will not look wider than their own interest, or that of their "set", in the short term.

The Brit up against Tsonga is doing jolly well.

NickPalmer said:

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

SimonStClare said:

surbiton said:

AndyJS said:

Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.

After today, they have zero chance.

There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?

I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.

Only caught a short clip but managed to follow the text on Sparrow’s G’live – I thought it a measured response all things considered, especially due to the hyped claims of his desire to bandy ‘war criminal’ around.

As I said the other day, Corbyn doesn't do personal stuff. Not for IDS. Not for Blair. The leftie view is that you always go for the system that produces disasters (in this case the love of invading people to change their regimes), and don't let yourself be distracted by arguing about individuals.

The problem with that is that the media really only like personal stuff. If Corbyn had shouted "Blair is a war crimnal" he'd have been on every front page. As it is, he'll be on page 7. But he doesn't care.

It's like being against tax avoidance and spending your energies trying to harass Amazon - even if you win the argument and Amazon is ashamed and changes its policies, you've actually made no progress on the underlying problem.

Yes I would agree with that.

What are your thoughts about his apologising for the entire PLP when outside the chamber?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9

Disgraceful - this must be it for him. time for Charlie Falconer to stand down.

Never gonna happen.



Falconer is going nowhere.

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.

It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.

Tut tut.

You've read too many SeanT posts

No. I've just had enough of Gove being a student-politico-twat.... More than enough.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.

It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.

If Leadsom felt she was in with little chance in a membership ballot now, then a better option would be to withdraw should she get to the final ballot, with one proviso. Namely, that if Article 50 had not been invoked within 6 months she would launch a renewed leadership challenge to May. The Conservative membership might be taken in by May now, but would be better able to judge six months hence whether she has lived up to her promises. It would put a lot of pressure on May to deliver in the meantime.

Like that.

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.

Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.

Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!

Sorry I thought you were talking about overall migration when you said 200,000. That from the EU is already less than that isn't it.

Yes, I was. Obviously May is going to have to fix non-EU migration at the same time. I would look at banning family reunions as a starter.

Me too, Mr. Max. Those families in Africa clubbing together to pay the people traffickers to get their boy into the UK may not be doing it for wholly altruistic reasons.

Of course we also need to reform our benefits system to one based on a contributory principle. However, that was tried in the early 1980s and the courts threw it out.

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.

It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.

Tut tut.

You've read too many SeanT posts

No. I've just had enough of Gove being a student-politico-twat.... More than enough.

There's just 24hrs to go. Then the membership decides. Act in haste, repent at leisure.

The membership will overwhelmingly back May. It really isn't a contest.

SeanT said:

Check the thread beneath this tweet

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/status/750736303008976896


Blair is in deep shit. His performance today was meaningless.

Truly shocking.

Now, will he face justice?

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

John_N4 said:

MaxPB said:

Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.

Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.

That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.

And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.

Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.

The Swiss financial services industry exists almost solely to offer private wealth management services to high net worths globally.

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/750737423349448704

Scrapheap_as_was said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/750737423349448704

SeanT said:

A vivid expression of Bremorse

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/i-voted-for-brexit-but-now-i-am-regret-the-terrifying-chaos-i-ha/

While I personally think it a bit soon for much Bremorse, I actually respect someone standing up now and detailing their position in that way, since they're likely to face anger from both sides.

HurstLlama said:

Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.

Yeah, I've never quite understood why the UK counts students as immigrants. Here in the US, aliens admitted as residents (as a opposed to visitors) are firmly divided into two categories, 'immigrant' and 'non-immigrant'. 'Immigrants' are people with permanent residence (Green Cards). 'Non-immigrants' are everyone else: those on any sort of visa that doesn't grant permanent residence.

Whilst 'non-immigrants' might or might not be able to change between different temporary statuses such as student, press, guest-worker, treaty trader etc they do not get permanent residency unless they qualify for it, and that's not easy to get. Typically you need to marry a local or be sponsored by an employer as an extremely high-skilled / "essential" worker, and even then many permanent residents have to serve a two-year "conditional" period before being granted true permanent residence.

Only people classed as 'immigrants' are counted as immigrants, as only they can stay permanently in the US. Everyone else has to go home sooner or later.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/750737423349448704

You've got to admit, that's an absolutely awesome line in every way and on every level!

RobD said:

John_M said:

The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.

Just goes to show you don't need mandatory all-women shortlists.

You do in the Labour Party!!

john_zims said:

@chestnut

'Have I misunderstood this?

UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?

Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?

And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'


France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.

France income tax is very similar to the UK (they got rid of the supertax):

5.2. French Income Tax Rates
Income Share	Tax Rate
Between €9,701 - €26,791	14%
Between €26,792 - €71,826	30%
Between €71,827 - €152,108	41%
Above €151,108	45%

Also, your allowances stack according to how many people are in your family. If you have a wife and two kids, you need to earn more than EUR600,000 before you get to 45%, against just GBP100,000 in the UK.

It's an incredibly family friendly tax system.

PlatoSaid said:

John_M said:

The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.

TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.

Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.

Not as much as the vapid bilge posted on here.

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/750737423349448704

You've got to admit, that's an absolutely awesome line in every way and on every level!

It is a good line - and to be quite frank, even in saying it it didn't sound all that much like Clarke thought it a criticism, at least not a big one, and it sets up that response well.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

Oh

@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."

What does she not want party members in the shires to see?

More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification.
She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.

Is that "not very good" why she was better than all the 6 REMAINers that were put up at the 3v3 debates?
But WTF do I know eh? 130/1 on Andrea in March... before she stepped forward and took a bigger role in the LEAVE campaign.
I actually favour Mrs May as PM, just to see if (for once) the establishment have got it right. But all this endless bitching and whining about Andrea from people who cannot accept they were forecasting the wrong referendum result. Some went on and on about how 60%+ REMAIN was nailed on.
On 24 April 2016 4:08PM Mr Meeks you recommended "Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago..."

John_N4 said:

Is anybody here thinking about the US presidential election market yet?

I'm a mere neophyte, but my thoughts so far are as follows.

* It's unlikely to be like EUref night. Probably the only way it could be is if all the serious polls in the last week give the same side a decent majority in the electoral college, but the exit polls in the swing states where voting closes earliest show it as 50-50. Having better models than the pollsters would then be at a premium, but difficult.

* The big betting question is whether there's likely to be a sizeable swing in the polls before the vote.

* The sizes of the smallest 10 Dem majorities (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota) correlate most with

- the relative size of the black population (negatively)
- not finishing high school (negatively)
- low income (positively - especially the first quintile)

Obviously the Dem majority is not the same as the Dem vote share, but still, this is interesting. Few black people will vote for Trump, but he would benefit from stoking a white-black polarisation.

Many people on low incomes did finish high school. (Or they are black or Hispanic.) How well placed is this billionaire to get votes from people who are on low incomes? Across the board, he isn't. Where he is excellently placed is to pick up the uneducated white vote, among both those on low incomes and those who aren't. And that demographic overlaps a lot with the white racist vote and with those white people who are amenable to being induced into racism. Who are f***king stupid, basically.

* Trump has so far spent very little, far less than Clinton.

* Trump has used Twitter extremely competently as a major medium for his campaigning, mostly to insult rivals very crudely.

* His lack of open and warm support from many big Rep donors and political figures doesn't serve him too badly. If he wins the Rep nomination, as it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he will, I can't honestly see the National Rifle Association and the usual suspects not backing him.

* There have been a few stories, but Trump hasn't upset the Jewish lobby yet. If he does, we'll know it - the Anti-Defamation League will have his guts for garters. When he and Clinton go to Israel, it's going to be interesting to watch how their meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu get presented and with what soundbites.

* Assuming the Zionists don't squash him, I reckon Trump's chances depend on how well he performs in the TV debates. Television is uneducated people's favourite medium. I can imagine that his score in opinion polls will increase during that time. At his current price of 4.3 he may be a buy.

Thoughts? As I said, I'm a neophyte...

Is it a tradition for presidential candidates to go to israel? And if so, why?

Wales shows Regrexit - new poll

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

Oh

@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."

What does she not want party members in the shires to see?

More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification.
She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.

Is that "not very good" why she was better than all the 6 REMAINers that were put up at the ITV 3v3 debates?
But WTF do I know eh? 130/1 on Andrea in March... before she stepped forward into the front of the LEAVE campaign.
I actually favour Mrs May as PM, just to see if (for once) the establishment have got it right.

She wasn't better than all the Remainers.

RobD said:

Jobabob said:

Wales shows Regrexit - new poll

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/

Didn't polls also show remain would win?
*innocent face*

Yup. But this sample is based on actual votes in the referendum. In fact the sample is marginally more pro-leave than the actual result!

Interesting.

Jobabob said:

Wales shows Regrexit - new poll

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/

Margin of error stuff, and it's been two weeks.

I'm honestly of the view that, so long as it is democratically, done, there is nothing inherently wrong with the country changing its mind. But what is genuine proof of that, as it certainly isn't opinion polls alone, and if we Remained and then a new EU proposal came out, what do you know, Brexit is more popular again.

Jeremy_Brown said:

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Check the thread beneath this tweet

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/status/750736303008976896


Blair is in deep shit. His performance today was meaningless.

Wowsers. He didn't share? Words fail.

Mind-boggling. He really did take us to war on a lie. He lied to his own Cabinet, in effect. As well as everyone else in the country.

It's a bit like going to Brexit on a lie - woefully unprepared for the aftermath

The country was warned much more extensively about the options for Brexit than for the War.