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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    GIN1138 said:

    The main reason why I'd not rule out an election is to allow the Tories to increase their majority.

    Remember Camerons majority is only 12 and we can assume BREXIT will need several votes in the Commons (we can also assume the HoL will attempt to block Brexit at every turn) A bigger majority than 12 would certainly help the government in what is likely to be a highly challenging and difficult Parliament.

    If it looks like there's a realistic chance for the new PM to get a 40-50 seat majority while Labour is in such disarray, I think they should go for it.
    Right now there is a realistic chance for over 100!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    How can he be impeached when he holds no office?

    Arguably, he *should* have been impeached in 2004, when it was clear that he'd misled parliament into backing war in Iraq, but that boat has long since sailed.
    I didn't think it made sense, I was just curious whether the proposed mechanism of impeachment was the same or different to the use of attainder.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited July 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Bar gay marriage and a surprising rise in his majority - what's Cameron's legacy post Brexit? He helped improve the number of kids getting adopted? I liked him for ages, but when I strip away his frontman abilities, where's the meat? Blair did huge damage in the long term - and I regret ever voting for him.
    And equal marriage really belongs to Featherstone and the LibDems. Within the Tories May deserves as much credit as Cameron, as it was an HO bill.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Cameron has a tragic legacy, lots of promise and yet somehow he let it all slip through his fingers.
    I don't want to be unfair to Cameron - but when I think back to what he's done, it's very much Continuity New Labour. Academies being another one - I happen to approve of that in principle, but Osborne trying to make in compulsory was so wrong on every level.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Callaghan received a poisoned chalice from Wilson. I'm not sure anybody else was going to do much better.
    Callaghan suffered from the union problem which he helped to fester by undermining Castle's union reforms. As you sow, so shall you reap.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    ydoethur said:

    I've never read it but I guess the gist is, 'R. A. Butler; making jellyfish look like brontosauruses since 1902'?

    Pretty much, but more Powellesque:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1l6CDAAAQBAJ&pg=PA236&lpg=PA236&dq=powell+butler+guns+bang&source=bl&ots=psJUNfsR7t&sig=o-xLWjEUuNoV_Ieuyy8G1yrU8cw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiDxJ7Or9TNAhXlBsAKHSNmA8oQ6AEIHzAB#v=onepage&q=powell butler guns bang&f=false
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Charles said:

    If you ever go to Churchill College it's worth digging out his correspondence with Robert Runcie. I think they exchanged 16 letters on whether it is the "property" or the "nature" of God to have mercy....
    Was he also an admirer of Edward Gibbon by any chance?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678

    This afternoon, our newbie MP, Heidi Allen, is holding a constituency meeting on Brexit. All welcome; Cambourne 16.00hrs.

    How many other MPs are having open meetings, to tell us what she knows, and maybe even to listen to different views?

    It's quite common, I thought? I did it from time to time, especially when there was a controversy (e.g. when I was proposing ID cards I invited opponents to a public meeting to debate it), and Anna Soubry held one to defend her support for gay marriage. Firstly it's fun to stand up and debate something you believe in, and second you get some credit for having the guts to do it.
  • IanB2 said:

    And equal marriage really belongs to Featherstone and the LibDems. Within the Tories May deserves as much credit as Cameron, as it was an HO bill.
    The manner in which Cameron introduced gay marriage through the Govt cost him >50,000 members and a lot of festering resentment. Tactically inept as he culd have got the same outcome through a back bencher bill. I supported gay marriage but not the manner of doing it when it was not in the manifesto. A certain Andrew Cooper told Cameron it was a good PR idea, it and the omnishambles budget all led to the need to make the referendum promise.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    If May wins she is a win-win situation.

    If the negotiations go well and the economy improves she will take a bow and accept the plaudits

    If the negotiations go badly, the experts are proved to be correct and the economy tanks she will then remind people that she was opposed to this madness from the outset and is only following behind with a shovel trying to clear up the mess.

    Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    edited July 2016
    I've been looking again at the YouGov poll of 1000 Tory members (fieldwork 27-29 June)

    http://bit.ly/299QWCb

    63% had voted Leave, 36% Remain.
    May needs a quarter of the Leavers at least to get over 50%, crudely speaking.

    When asked whether they had a positive or negative opinion of various people (not including Leadsom unfortunately) the results for those who had voted Leave were:

    May 66% +ve, 18% -ve
    Gove 84% +ve, 5% -ve
    Boris 83% +ve, 6% -ve.

    This was before Gove stabbed Boris so the positive opinion of him will have gone down no doubt.

    Nevertheless it might explain why May supporters are worried about Gove being in second place to May.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JackW said:

    I support May because of this field she is, by a distance, the standout candidate to become the best PM. It's a no brainer. Crabb and Leadsom are placing markers for the future. Brutus is a busted flush and Fox's candidature is a triumph of lunacy over reality.
    Seconded.

    LOTO, four years out from a likely GE might be a different question, but its for PM.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Anyway, the sun is shining, it's Saturday and I'm off out to enjoy myself. Have a good day everyone.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    The manner in which Cameron introduced gay marriage through the Govt cost him >50,000 members and a lot of festering resentment. Tactically inept as he culd have got the same outcome through a back bencher bill. I supported gay marriage but not the manner of doing it when it was not in the manifesto. A certain Andrew Cooper told Cameron it was a good PR idea, it and the omnishambles budget all led to the need to make the referendum promise.
    Mr Cooper's polling and political nous seem a trifle wanting. I went from being sceptical about gay marriage to in favour of it after reading posts on PB. Arguments made on here can have a microscopic impact on public opinion :wink:
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OllyT said:

    If May wins she is a win-win situation.

    If the negotiations go well and the economy improves she will take a bow and accept the plaudits

    If the negotiations go badly, the experts are proved to be correct and the economy tanks she will then remind people that she was opposed to this madness from the outset and is only following behind with a shovel trying to clear up the mess.

    Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong

    Short of having her wisdom teeth removed, it is hard to see how Theresa May could have played it better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking again at the YouGov poll of 1000 Tory members (fieldwork 27-29 June)

    http://bit.ly/299QWCb

    63% had voted Leave, 36% Remain.
    May needs a quarter of the Leavers at least to get over 50%, crudely speaking.

    When asked whether they had a positive or negative opinion of various people (not including Leadsom unfortunately) the results for those who had voted Leave were:

    May 66% +ve, 18% -ve
    Gove 84% +ve, 5% -ve
    Boris 83% +ve, 6% -ve.

    This was before Gove stabbed Boris so the positive opinion of him will have gone down no doubt.

    Nevertheless it might explain why May supporters are worried about Gove being in second place to May.

    May beat Boris comfortably overall and with Gove just 1% ahead of Boris there, pre assassination, I don't think she should be too concerned
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    No, she didn't take on the miners in 1981; she backed down. You're just ignoring the evidence that doesn't fit with your caricature of SuperMaggie.
    As I mentioned below, surely in 1981 (actually thought it was '82) she and her government knew the country was not prepared to withstand a strike. What won the miners' strike for the government was the work they did between 1981 and 1984.

    A good general tries to pick both the field and the time of the battle.

    I'm not sure that giving the miners their pay rise in 1981 can be seen as a sign of gross weakness given what happened later. It would have been if they had given in and not prepared for the next invitable fight.

    Then again, it was more or less before my time (in that I was alive, but only a child).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Leadership elections don't really work like that though. Hitherto none of them have been publicly declaring for the top job, which is political suicide. Now the race has begun we get to see a different dimension to them. Winners often come from behind: Cameron being a prime example. He was 4th at one point and, indeed, little known even in the shadow education brief.

    Let's wait and see how this pans out. As the cliche goes, a week is a long time in politics.

    The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    Updated Australia figures 0.9% counted

    L/NP 39 Lab 23 Other 2
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Charlie Falconer is on Question Time next week.

    Awkward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OllyT said:

    If May wins she is a win-win situation.

    If the negotiations go well and the economy improves she will take a bow and accept the plaudits

    If the negotiations go badly, the experts are proved to be correct and the economy tanks she will then remind people that she was opposed to this madness from the outset and is only following behind with a shovel trying to clear up the mess.

    Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong

    And with Leadsom it's the opposite.

    If it goes pear shaped ITS ALL HER FAULT. She suggested it, she campaigned for it, she won it. Now, she can't deliver it.

    Another reason for the Tories to pick May - it helps put a firewall between them and BREXIT problems.....

    At the very best we're a few years away from the golden sunlit uplands promised by LEAVE.....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Short of having her wisdom teeth removed, it is hard to see how Theresa May could have played it better.
    Yes. Brilliant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Carwyn Jones must go.

    He's spoiling the all woman line up

    Head of state - Woman
    PM - woman
    FM Scotland - woman
    FM N I - woman
    FM Wales - man

    he could at least declare himself transgender and not spoil the party.

    A fleet headed by dragons is already on its way to remedy that.....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    It had better get to the members stage; if it doesn't there will be cries of an elite stitch up, which will do nobody any good. I don't think you realise how febrile the situation in large parts of our population is.
    (edit)
    The British don't do "febrile" over such matters. We are made of sterner stuff .... well most of us are "Corporal Jones".
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong''

    Theresa's gut instinct is to distance herself from anything that goes remotely wrong. Nothing is ever her fault. She does not take ownership of anything, ever.

    That is why she'll make a rotten leader, who will be hammered by a decent labour choice.

    If the tories elect her, they will bitterly regret it - and soon.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    I'm not sure this story about Gove could be any more perfect.

    https://twitter.com/SoniaPoulton/status/748790981466558464
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Morning all,

    Not looking to good for Gove this morning. He was on 5 at BF only 48 or so hours ago. Now 22.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Also worth remembering that whilst the Tory MPs were fairly evenly split between Remain and Leave that was under HUGE pressure from the No.10 and 11 fascists.

    Now it's a free for all true colours will emerge. If there's a whiff that Theresa May is in trouble, watch them break for Leadsom.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited July 2016
    ''The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.''

    May is being likened to John Major.

    How did that 1997 election turn out again?

    When the tories choose a manager they get destroyed. When they choose someone with guts and vision, they win.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    GIN1138 said:


    With the likes of Lord Mandelson and Lord Helseltine sitting in the Lords, I have absolutely no confidence they won't try and block Brexit whenever they can.
    They can't. Article 50 can be triggered by the government alone. Once that's done, the clock is ticking.

    There is an argument that parliament must be consulted as triggering Article 50 is essentially contrary to the 1972 European Communities Act but I don't buy that. Even if it is against the spirit of that Act (which is itself arguable), the Act has been amended due to the need to incorporate later treaties. Similarly, all the later treaties have been ratified into law. Consequently, A50 is implicitly already an accepted part of the wider British constitution. It would certainly be wise to consult both houses of parliament but it's not necessary and short of removing the government, can't be blocked.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.
    I agree. I can't understand why the Betfair odds on May (1.55) indicate she has only a 65% chance of winning. That is absurd. It must be nearer 90%. I have lumped all my considerable winnings from betting on Leave in the early hours of the 24th onto May in the expectation of making a tax free 50% return by September.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    taffys said:

    ''The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.''

    May is being likened to John Major.

    How did that 1997 election turn out again?

    When the tories choose a manager they get destroyed. When they choose someone with guts and vision, they win.

    People are always saying Cameron has not guts or vision and is a manager, and he won.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    We're all struggling to get past the simple statement "Of course May's going to win". The only counter-argument I can muster is that the media dislike one-horse races, so at some point (probably after a debate) they're going to declare that she made a horrible gaffe and thast her opponent masterfully seized advantage. That gives some trading bet advantage - when May gets to 1.1, lay her and wait for the moment. But in the end I think she'll win anyway.

    In reply to Moses, I don't expect Corbyn to demand Blair's arrest, because of the way the left thinks (including me). We generally don't go in for targeting individuals because we think it distracts attention from criticising the system. If Iraq was because of a systemic tendency of Western powers to throw their weight about in third world countries, often to disastrous effect, that has important lessons for us in e.g. Syria. If it was merely that Blair misled people (perhaps including himself), that doesn't teach us anything. (The problem about the systemic approach is that it will be perceived as complicated and unsexy, and the media will say Corbyn's missed his chance, but he doesn't worry about that sort of thing.)

    It's like tax avoidance. I don't waste my time slagging of Amazon, because I'm sure that loads of competitors do just the same. The problem isn't Amazon, it's the system that rewards tax avoidance.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    And with Leadsom it's the opposite.

    If it goes pear shaped ITS ALL HER FAULT. She suggested it, she campaigned for it, she won it. Now, she can't deliver it.

    Another reason for the Tories to pick May - it helps put a firewall between them and BREXIT problems.....

    At the very best we're a few years away from the golden sunlit uplands promised by LEAVE.....
    Thus spake Carlotta 'I'm a diehard Cameron-supporting-Remainer Vance'

    Wasn't it you who said Cameron would not just survive but go from strength to strength? ;)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    People are always saying Cameron has not guts or vision and is a manager, and he won.

    I would disagree with that, actually, but there it is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    taffys said:

    ''Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong''

    Theresa's gut instinct is to distance herself from anything that goes remotely wrong. Nothing is ever her fault. She does not take ownership of anything, ever.

    That is why she'll make a rotten leader, who will be hammered by a decent labour choice.

    If the tories elect her, they will bitterly regret it - and soon.

    Exactly , another empty suit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    edited July 2016
    taffys said:

    ''The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.''

    May is being likened to John Major.

    How did that 1997 election turn out again?

    When the tories choose a manager they get destroyed. When they choose someone with guts and vision, they win.

    1997 was Major's second election, 1992 was his first when he won with more votes than any PM in history! IDS and Corbyn arguably have guts and vision
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    As I mentioned below, surely in 1981 (actually thought it was '82) she and her government knew the country was not prepared to withstand a strike. What won the miners' strike for the government was the work they did between 1981 and 1984.

    A good general tries to pick both the field and the time of the battle.

    I'm not sure that giving the miners their pay rise in 1981 can be seen as a sign of gross weakness given what happened later. It would have been if they had given in and not prepared for the next invitable fight.

    Then again, it was more or less before my time (in that I was alive, but only a child).
    Maggie took on the miners, played a long war and won.

    End of.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    taffys said:

    ''The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.''

    May is being likened to John Major.

    How did that 1997 election turn out again?

    When the tories choose a manager they get destroyed. When they choose someone with guts and vision, they win.

    How did 1992 go? That is the relevant election right now. 1997 has as much to do with ERM, Maastricht, bastards etc as it does Major.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    OllyT said:

    If May wins she is a win-win situation.

    If the negotiations go well and the economy improves she will take a bow and accept the plaudits

    If the negotiations go badly, the experts are proved to be correct and the economy tanks she will then remind people that she was opposed to this madness from the outset and is only following behind with a shovel trying to clear up the mess.

    Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong

    The problem with her Remain views comes when she has to go and play poker in Brussels over Brexit. Merkel and Hollande have seen her cards. They know she won't take Britain to the edge for something she doesn't believe in. It's like Cameron's "renegotiation" all over again....

    I think the only way she gets over this is to appoint her negotiating team - and then let Europe's leaders know that she will stand behind whatever deal they negotiate. And make sure there a few Brexiteers heading it.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    HYUFD said:

    May beat Boris comfortably overall and with Gove just 1% ahead of Boris there, pre assassination, I don't think she should be too concerned

    I'm increasingly feeling this was just a ploy by Gove to set up Leadsom for the top job. Boris couldn't give Gove assurances about his role in Gov't. That was what seems to have unsettled him and Sarah Vine.

    So you can imagine the scenario: Gove knifes Boris in order then to pull out and play queenmaker to Andrea Leadsom.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    Australia coverage if not already posted:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    JackW said:

    The British don't do "febrile" over such matters. We are made of sterner stuff .... well most of us are "Corporal Jones".
    I don't think "the population" could care less whether the next Tory leader is chosen by the MPs or the Tory membership.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jobabob said:

    Charlie Falconer is on Question Time next week.

    Awkward.

    I expect a doppelganger ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    2.9% counted Australia

    LNP 54 ALP 33 Others 3
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    In a May vs Leadsom battle don't underestimate the importance of Leadsom being the woman who raised a family while holding down a top job. May, comes across colder and with no children will be harder to relate to. I would expect Leadsom will paint herself as the family woman often in the campaign to her advantage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    taffys said:

    People are always saying Cameron has not guts or vision and is a manager, and he won.

    I would disagree with that, actually, but there it is.

    Which bit would you disagree with, that he won, or that he has not guts or vision? I'm quite well disposed to Cameron, but as Mr Herdson's piece says, many in the party itself never reallyliked him, and definitely criticised him as having no real vision.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    The problem with her Remain views comes when she has to go and play poker in Brussels over Brexit. Merkel and Hollande have seen her cards. They know she won't take Britain to the edge for something she doesn't believe in. It's like Cameron's "renegotiation" all over again....
    Yep, hand on heart she will be a disaster.

    The only people on here who think otherwise are the Remainers. Voila.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Barnesian said:

    I agree. I can't understand why the Betfair odds on May (1.55) indicate she has only a 65% chance of winning. That is absurd. It must be nearer 90%. I have lumped all my considerable winnings from betting on Leave in the early hours of the 24th onto May in the expectation of making a tax free 50% return by September.
    I agree 65% seem low, but maybe not too much. Who amongst us really knows how the membership are going to vote in these strange times? I fear Leadsom has some way to go yet and as Nick P says a scare or two for May. I'm totally green, so watching with interest, but no sweaty palms.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Maggie took on the miners, played a long war and won.

    End of.
    Maggie Thatcher = Cersei Lannister

    Arthur Scargill = The High Sparrow
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    We're all struggling to get past the simple statement "Of course May's going to win". .

    She isn't certain by any means. Not by any means.

    But, hey, why should I know more than an ex Labour MP about, er, the Tory party ... ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    And with Leadsom it's the opposite.

    If it goes pear shaped ITS ALL HER FAULT. She suggested it, she campaigned for it, she won it. Now, she can't deliver it.

    Another reason for the Tories to pick May - it helps put a firewall between them and BREXIT problems.....

    At the very best we're a few years away from the golden sunlit uplands promised by LEAVE.....
    There is no firewall. The public won't care about such technicalities. Either we make it work or we don't and are punished. That is how the public votes.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    And with Leadsom it's the opposite.

    If it goes pear shaped ITS ALL HER FAULT. She suggested it, she campaigned for it, she won it. Now, she can't deliver it.

    Another reason for the Tories to pick May - it helps put a firewall between them and BREXIT problems.....

    At the very best we're a few years away from the golden sunlit uplands promised by LEAVE.....
    Only a few years, god your'e an optimist!
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    Maggie Thatcher = Cersei Lannister

    Arthur Scargill = The High Sparrow
    Hahahaha :D Well, precisely!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Yep, hand on heart she will be a disaster.

    The only people on here who think otherwise are the Remainers. Voila.
    If you ignore all the leavers also saying it, sure.

    But then there was always a certain element of the Leave coalition that others were not 'true' leavers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    JackW said:

    I expect a doppelganger ....
    He can resign on live TV.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    She isn't certain by any means. Not by any means.

    But, hey, why should I know more than an ex Labour MP about, er, the Tory party ... ;)
    Because he's been in parliament and knows many of the selectorate?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    kle4 said:

    Which bit would you disagree with, that he won, or that he has not guts or vision? I'm quite well disposed to Cameron, but as Mr Herdson's piece says, many in the party itself never reallyliked him, and definitely criticised him as having no real vision.
    Ironically, he got round to his vision in his 2015 Conference speech. And an excellent vision it was. Shame he now can't deliver it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Brom said:

    In a May vs Leadsom battle don't underestimate the importance of Leadsom being the woman who raised a family while holding down a top job. May, comes across colder and with no children will be harder to relate to.

    Oh I hope they don't push that too hard. I adored Davidson in the Wembly debate for picking up on the robotic 'I'm a mother/grandmother' schtick the other side were doing and joking about it.

    That was because it seemed to be coming up every other line though, so i'm sure it couldn't be hammered so hard as to annoy during a campaign.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    taffys said:

    ''The big difference here is that May is the only big beast standing to become PM in a time of huge political turmoil. In such circumstances the MP's and members will choose stability, certainty and steadfastness over all other factors.''

    May is being likened to John Major.

    How did that 1997 election turn out again?

    When the tories choose a manager they get destroyed. When they choose someone with guts and vision, they win.

    You forget Major won his first election as PM and further down the line any comparison with Corbyn and Blair as potential landslide Labour PM's is worthy of several chapters in Michael Gove's ongoing speech entitled :

    "Why counter factual history is total sh*t. Ask Boris !! "

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    May will have 150 seething leaver MPs and a 65% leaver membership against her as she rolls out a dogsh8t deal from Brussels.

    She has none of Cameron's vote winning power or charisma or intelligence to carry the party. She will not be able to control them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    There is no firewall. The public won't care about such technicalities. Either we make it work or we don't and are punished. That is how the public votes.
    By choosing Leadsom the Tories say 'we are the party of BREXIT'.

    By choosing May the Tories say 'we are the party of the United Kingdom - it was a close call, but decisive, and will now get on with it'.

    May has no responsibility for LEAVE claims - Leadsom 100%.

    PM Leadsom - 'when are you going to build a hospital a week? - from here to 2020......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    edited July 2016
    LNP ahead 52% to ALP's 48% so far
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @JennyFreeman

    Actually on here many people are enthusiastic students of politics and take an active interest in their opponents as well as they own party. It's a betting site after all!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    kle4 said:

    Oh I hope they don't push that too hard. I adored Davidson in the Wembly debate for picking up on the robotic 'I'm a mother/grandmother' schtick the other side were doing and joking about it.

    That was because it seemed to be coming up every other line though, so i'm sure it couldn't be hammered so hard as to annoy during a campaign.
    Didn't the Ice Pixie push that line hard in the Labour leadership debate? "As a mother..."
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Betfair has already decided its a May v Leadsom final. Their prices add up to over 92%.

    Having drifted overnight Owen Smith's price is back to 6.8-7.2 so hopefully he will make his bid for the Labour party leadership next week.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OllyT said:

    Only a few years, god your'e an optimist!

    I did write At the very best!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    LNP ahead 52% to ALP's 48% so far

    Link please?
  • The problem with her Remain views comes when she has to go and play poker in Brussels over Brexit. Merkel and Hollande have seen her cards. They know she won't take Britain to the edge for something she doesn't believe in. It's like Cameron's "renegotiation" all over again....
    I think the only way she gets over this is to appoint her negotiating team - and then let Europe's leaders know that she will stand behind whatever deal they negotiate. And make sure there a few Brexiteers heading it.
    Good points. When europhile fanatics such as Soubry back her it makes me think twice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    taffys said:

    May will have 150 seething leaver MPs and a 65% leaver membership against her as she rolls out a dogsh8t deal from Brussels.

    She has none of Cameron's vote winning power or charisma or intelligence to carry the party. She will not be able to control them.

    Then they need to persuade the membership to vote in Leadsom. It's not impossible. But if they don't, well, we will all have to hope May does get the best possible deal. It may well not not be the best deal that many Leavers wanted, but she can still achieve one which other Leavers did want, and which settles the nerves of Remainers.

    RIght now, that's a sensible choice (depending on what deal she does go for. If we go for EEA and FOM or whatever, the bits of the Leave campaign which don't want that can keep up the fight, so what's the problem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    HYUFD said:

    2.9% counted Australia

    LNP 54 ALP 33 Others 3

    What was the result last time.

    Looks like Lab +1; Lib -1 to me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    kle4 said:

    Oh I hope they don't push that too hard. I adored Davidson in the Wembly debate for picking up on the robotic 'I'm a mother/grandmother' schtick the other side were doing and joking about it.

    That was because it seemed to be coming up every other line though, so i'm sure it couldn't be hammered so hard as to annoy during a campaign.
    Yea gods! When would a male politician come up with the 'I'm a working father' line?

    It says a lot more about voters swayed by such arguments than it does about either May or Leadsom......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    stjohn said:

    Betfair has already decided its a May v Leadsom final. Their prices add up to over 92%.

    Having drifted overnight Owen Smith's price is back to 6.8-7.2 so hopefully he will make his bid for the Labour party leadership next week.

    Sadly, my Lab bets are a mess, mostly placed months ago when I thought the party would shift away from left types and head back to the centre. I have no idea who is going to actually stand in the end. If it's a truly open competition then some of mine may come into play (Yvette, Jarvis etc), otherwise I'm a bit stuffed.

    However, if Balls appears at Batley and runs and wins leadership, then its mega pay day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    Australia 7% in

    LNP 50 ALP 45 Others 5

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Didn't the Ice Pixie push that line hard in the Labour leadership debate? "As a mother..."
    I'd not wager against that having been the case. There is a line between highlighting an aspect of one's self and being a robot of course, always a danger with repeated lines that you do it too much as well. Remember the 'I met a man' stuff from 2010 leader's debates?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Yea gods! When would a male politician come up with the 'I'm a working father' line?

    It says a lot more about voters swayed by such arguments than it does about either May or Leadsom......
    Men usually try other lines. Did you know that Andy Burnham is a scouser? He may have mentioned it once or twice during his leadership campaign.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited July 2016
    Australia looks like it is swinging to Labor.

    Won't Labor do better than the coalition on the second prefs?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    Pulpstar said:

    What was the result last time.

    Looks like Lab +1; Lib -1 to me.
    In the 2013 election it was L/NP 90 ALP 55 Others 5
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Because he's been in parliament and knows many of the selectorate?
    You're kidding?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Lowlander said:

    Australia looks like it is swinging to Labor.

    Won't Labor do better than the coalition on the second prefs?

    Australia's politics is so swift and brutal it genuinely looks like the country cannot ever make up its mind.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Confession time for me. For years I have been mixing up my Hoggs and my Moggs. I thought the Rees-Moggs and the Hoggs were the same clan when of course they are not. Google has sorted me out.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    taffys said:

    ''Smart lady. She has been very quiet about her Remain views but expect that to change big time if it all goes wrong''

    Theresa's gut instinct is to distance herself from anything that goes remotely wrong. Nothing is ever her fault. She does not take ownership of anything, ever.

    That is why she'll make a rotten leader, who will be hammered by a decent labour choice.

    If the tories elect her, they will bitterly regret it - and soon.


    It is undeniably smart politics, whether she does anything with the prize once she has got it is an altogether different matter. I have nothing against her but she does seem to me to be the sort of politician that will be overly concerned with how things reflect on her. Not someone to take the difficult unpopular decisions methinks.

    I'm in the Stodge & SO camp, I was opposed to Brexit but now we have it should be what people voted for, fully out and no FoM. Having gone through the pain I can't see the half way house satisfying anyone but the City types. If FoM continues, the Mail, Sun etc will continue to blame everything on "immigrants", the poisonous atmosphere will continue and we will be right back where we started asking ourselves was it worth it.

    If we end up with a solution that is perceived to be tailored to suit those already doing very well, in London in particular, then I think we are heading for problems. But as Scott constantly reminded us, the "elite" will always come out on top, they will make sure Brexit is fixed to suit their needs. Thepoor saps on the sink estates who voted to give them Brexit will go away empty handed, it was ever thus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    @MaxPB

    Are you on? I was working on a Brexit piece at work, and was trying to calculate exports to the EU as a percent of GDP. We'd all been working a 9% number or somesuch, but when I did the sums it came out as a little over 12%.

    43.6% of UK exports go to the EU
    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends

    Exports are 28.4% of GDP
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS

    Which equals 12.4% of GDP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Lib-coalition 87 looks to me, they go slightly backwards but hold power still.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Ironically, he got round to his vision in his 2015 Conference speech. And an excellent vision it was. Shame he now can't deliver it.
    And then he undid it all by having eff all in the Queen's Speech - I cite as Exhibit A *space ports*
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    Then they need to persuade the membership to vote in Leadsom. It's not impossible. But if they don't, well, we will all have to hope May does get the best possible deal. It may well not not be the best deal that many Leavers wanted, but she can still achieve one which other Leavers did want, and which settles the nerves of Remainers.

    RIght now, that's a sensible choice (depending on what deal she does go for. If we go for EEA and FOM or whatever, the bits of the Leave campaign which don't want that can keep up the fight, so what's the problem.
    +1

    And "Cameron's winning charisma and intelligence" isn't something I have read so much about, recently.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    We're all struggling to get past the simple statement "Of course May's going to win". The only counter-argument I can muster is that the media dislike one-horse races, so at some point (probably after a debate) they're going to declare that she made a horrible gaffe and thast her opponent masterfully seized advantage. That gives some trading bet advantage - when May gets to 1.1, lay her and wait for the moment. But in the end I think she'll win anyway.

    In reply to Moses, I don't expect Corbyn to demand Blair's arrest, because of the way the left thinks (including me). We generally don't go in for targeting individuals because we think it distracts attention from criticising the system. If Iraq was because of a systemic tendency of Western powers to throw their weight about in third world countries, often to disastrous effect, that has important lessons for us in e.g. Syria. If it was merely that Blair misled people (perhaps including himself), that doesn't teach us anything. (The problem about the systemic approach is that it will be perceived as complicated and unsexy, and the media will say Corbyn's missed his chance, but he doesn't worry about that sort of thing.)

    It's like tax avoidance. I don't waste my time slagging of Amazon, because I'm sure that loads of competitors do just the same. The problem isn't Amazon, it's the system that rewards tax avoidance.

    "We generally don't go in for targeting individuals..."

    Tell that to members of Major's government. Or members of your own government targeted by Brown's thugs in his attempts to wrest power from Blair. Or the smears against Cameron that came direct from No.10 via McBride. Or picketing outside people's houses during Grangemouth, etc, etc.

    Yes Nick, I'm sure that the left don't target individuals, generally or otherwise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    edited July 2016
    Lowlander said:

    Australia looks like it is swinging to Labor.

    Won't Labor do better than the coalition on the second prefs?

    There is a clear swing to Labor so far across Australia as a whole, including picking up 3 seats in Tasmania, though Queensland is not good for them
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    Maggie took on the miners, played a long war and won.

    End of.
    No.

    Scargill took on the government and lost.

    Thatcher was left with no choice in 1984 after Scargill called a strike without a ballot.

    Even after the strike Thatcher's government continued to subsidise coal production and pay good wages and very generous redundancy packages to miners.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    Australia's politics is so swift and brutal it genuinely looks like the country cannot ever make up its mind.
    That's the problem when u have an election every 3 years.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    OllyT said:


    It is undeniably smart politics, whether she does anything with the prize once she has got it is an altogether different matter. I have nothing against her but she does seem to me to be the sort of politician that will be overly concerned with how things reflect on her. Not someone to take the difficult unpopular decisions methinks.

    I'm in the Stodge & SO camp, I was opposed to Brexit but now we have it should be what people voted for, fully out and no FoM. Having gone through the pain I can't see the half way house satisfying anyone but the City types. If FoM continues, the Mail, Sun etc will continue to blame everything on "immigrants", the poisonous atmosphere will continue and we will be right back where we started asking ourselves was it worth it.

    If we end up with a solution that is perceived to be tailored to suit those already doing very well, in London in particular, then I think we are heading for problems. But as Scott constantly reminded us, the "elite" will always come out on top, they will make sure Brexit is fixed to suit their needs. Thepoor saps on the sink estates who voted to give them Brexit will go away empty handed, it was ever thus.
    Mr T your analysis is absolutely correct in my view. And the electorate will not forgive the tories for making such a dreadful choice.

    May is the candidate Nigel Farage would choose. His perfect candidate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    nunu said:

    That's the problem when u have an election every 3 years.
    Three years does seem a bit short to me. You really can't do anything that takes more than about 18 months to play out.

    That being said, it does mean there are a lot of betting opportunities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib-coalition 87 looks to me, they go slightly backwards but hold power still.

    Still far too early to call, most marginal seats still not in, the L/NP will probably come out ahead question is how far and if they can hold their majority
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    I've been rather busy this week and haven't been able to keep in touch with the news.

    So would PBers be kind enough to give me a brief update on:

    1) What tax rises and spending cuts were in Osborne's promised Emergency Budget.

    2) How far the stock market has crashed. I assume from the BBC reports that the FTSE100 is now below 5,000 maybe even below 4,000.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    stjohn said:

    Confession time for me. For years I have been mixing up my Hoggs and my Moggs. I thought the Rees-Moggs and the Hoggs were the same clan when of course they are not. Google has sorted me out.

    Remember your Churchill: cats looks down at you whereas pigs treat you as an equal.

    They could never have been from the same clan.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Mr Cooper's polling and political nous seem a trifle wanting. I went from being sceptical about gay marriage to in favour of it after reading posts on PB. Arguments made on here can have a microscopic impact on public opinion :wink:
    Yes. I stood apart from most of my local Conservative Assn members who were dead against it. But there was nothing to be gained by arguing about it and their legitimate point was "its not in the manifesto, so here's my resignation".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,118
    kle4 said:

    Australia's politics is so swift and brutal it genuinely looks like the country cannot ever make up its mind.
    I suggest the PLP go on a factfinding mission to the Australian Parliament to find out how to topple a leader!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    stjohn said:

    Confession time for me. For years I have been mixing up my Hoggs and my Moggs. I thought the Rees-Moggs and the Hoggs were the same clan when of course they are not. Google has sorted me out.

    As far as I'm aware the Rees-Moggs didn't feature in Dukes of Hazard.
This discussion has been closed.