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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest
We have just been through a highly divisive referendum campaign and apart from the country itself, nothing was more divided than the Conservative Party. However, divisions can be, and are being, overplayed. Some in the media would have you believe that the Tories are split into two immutably hostile blocks. They’re not.
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Our latest Conservative leadership election MP tally. May 97, Crabb 21, Gove 20, Leadsom 20, Fox 7
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/whos-backing-who-our-running-list-of-mps-supporting-each-leadership-candidate.html
That will give Leadsom way more votes than Crabb pre any tactical voting.
I think the gap will be too great for May supporters to try to get Crabb in the Final - it will be better for May to win the MPs vote by a massive margin which will then give her huge momentum going into the members.
Members won't want to go against the MPs if May has well over 50% of MPs - and looks like she has every chance of that.
That helps May enormously because it will significantly reduce the scope for Leadsom to build any momentum - because members simply won't see enough of her.
Contrast with the Cameron / Davis members ballot which took place principally in November with the result declared in early December.
Add in the fact that many members will return their ballot papers soon after they receive them and many will also be on holiday for much of the period.
It all points to May just getting as many MP votes as possible (ie no messing around with tactical voting) - preferably over 50% - and then the whole thing just becoming a fait accompli.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3670758/Remind-Theresa-compared-Iron-Lady-reveal-leadership-hopeful-s-Tory-values-words.html
Leadsom for CoE:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3670776/Grammar-school-girl-star-banker-mum-three-Christian-brilliant-Brexiteer-ANDREW-PIERCE-woman-eyes-Chancellor.html
Also between migrants from the old EU-15, essentially Western Europe, and A10 (Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus). Brits can work in the former, without much of a drop in income (or in some cases increasing it) while the latter have much less to offer in exchange for freedom of movement. We might give Malta and Cyprus special deals because of their small size and ties to the UK. So one size won't fit all for immigration policy post-Brexit.
Great last sentence to the article, that the jumped up Hattie Hatemens of this world will go nuts about a second Tory woman PM just makes it better!
IMHO you have to have an extreme policy on drugs rather than a mushy middle way. Either go with the Portugal/Colorado approach or the Thailand/Singapore/Dubai approach.
Brexit has had pan-european, possibly world wide effects. There is a lot of pressure from outside the UK to have a clear timetable and process for the UK to Leave the EU ASAP.
Within the UK, I doubt the parliamentary conservative party really want to risk not following thru with Leave. That would create internal problems for the Conservative Party, and external problems with their voter coalition. Its a lot easier to just follow thru with Leave, and use the successful UK-EU negotiation, and some shiny non-EU trade deals to win the next election.
1. She's the Leave candidate
2. She's the private sector experience candidate
3. She's the JFK vs Nixon candidate (Ms Leadsom is tanned and good in debate, Ms Fox is colourless and reputedly not so good at debates.)
That said, I'm currently anyone-but-gove, so I could live with either.
Crabb went out quickly and has hardly moved since really, he seems to have a small but solid support base and will hope to cash it in later on.
Cheers Mr Herdson, a very good article, superb cartoon - and a witty dig in the conclusion.
What's not to like.
As deals are done behind the scenes - votes can chop and change in unexpected ways, and of course what MPs say in public may not be what actually happens in the ballot as they try to catch rival candidates out.
I'm waiting for Tuesday. I do like the Tory's way of doing this - all the nail-biting fun of proper knock-out rounds - and a final popular vote.
It's at this point I have to ask; do such people ever leave their own left wing bubble? Much like the media at Westminster that get accused of never leaving their own comfortable bubble, Corbynites only seem to run along with other Corbynites (which sounds like Corbomite from the classic Star Trek ep, insomnia ok) which leaves them with a warped sense of reality. They keep chuntering on about representing their members, but never about representing their voters, which are a much larger and much more diverse group of people who actually put the party where it is.
At this rate we could have a political party in the UK with highest % of members to voters in our history, whilst the one in power will have a a tiny % and in many ways isn't that preferable? We want parties to shoot for mass appeal, not be a well funded pressure group especially under FPTP where they can be ignored.
"Rumours are doing the rounds that several as yet undeclared Theresa May supporters are considering endorsing Andrea Leadsom in order to keep Michael Gove off the ballot."
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/may-supporters-plot-keep-gove-off-ballot/
This referendum has exposed some crackpots.
Theresa May is the favourite and that's her biggest problem.
Her second biggest problem is that she doesn't really support Brexit, or at least she was flakey. The membership may love her but they also wanted to Leave the EU. Once Leadsom attacks May over this and all the other Leavers, including Gove and Boris, join in then Theresa May could have problems.
Whatever David has written here, the next four years will be the Brexit Government. That is what will define it for all time.
Andrea Leadsom, tipped here a while back, is beginning to look like a very very good bet.
"Rumours are doing the rounds that several as yet undeclared Theresa May supporters are considering endorsing Andrea Leadsom in order to keep Michael Gove off the ballot."
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/may-supporters-plot-keep-gove-off-ballot/
Yes, Theresa won't have complete control of this sort of thing. Even if she would like her supporters to play it with a straight bat, they may have other ideas.
Is Gove's heart really in it?
Post-Brexit, hardcore Nigel fans have no need for Carswell - not something I can pretend to understand, but then again who does know WTF is going on right now?
If he gets dumped by UKIP, I expect him to stay as in Indy for a while.
Labour would never dream of switching to their enemy's voting system, of course, but if they'd used it at their last leadership election they might have avoided some of their current problems.
The stand-off between May vs Leadsom would be a cracking fight.
The MPs ballots will be interesting, first will give a big hint of where things are heading. Suspect it will be Fox last, Leadsom ahead of him and Gove and Crabb broadly the same needing binoculars to see May who will be way out in front. Fox will be eliminated and Leadsom may have to drop out if the addition of Fox votes don't give her a realistic chance of overhauling person 3. Otherwise second ballot is where she ends. Outside chance that if May gets over 200 on first ballot contest ends there and then. Historical irony would be 204.
Suspect MPs section will be over on Thursday. Then I suspect the members ballot will be May/Gove or May/Crabb.
May will win in either scenario but the margins will be very different. It will probably be in the region of 75/25 against Gove but nearer 60/40 against Crabb.
It is very very difficult to imagine a plausible scenario where May doesn't dominate this contest now from start to finish.
I do not see that there will be a problem with two lukewarm remainers in the final round, as long as they are clear they are going to follow through on out.
The big unknown is whether there will be another migration crisis this summer dominating the airwaves when members are voting. If there is - and I'd say it's evens there will be - that could really hurt May. It will shine an unforgiving spotlight on her record and remind remainers that they lost because of migration and leavers that she failed to control it.
Therefore there is still value in Crabb. Yes, he's a remainer. Yes, he's young and he's only been in Cabinet two years. Yes, he's not well known. But he is also the candidate most likely to get to the final two after May, and least likely to run into 'events'. As David notes, very often these elections are decided negatively. He's the one with the fewest potential negatives.
Also ask yourself this - when was the last time the second favourite won a Tory leadership contest? With the arguable exception of Major, it would be 1957. Boris' elimination might just leave May as the Hailsham candidate.
It seems to me that Gove was the brains behind the partnership, not an original thought but it seems closest to the truth. Gove did the leg work making the team work, and Boris did his homework for once and carried the argument through....but for his own reasons that would have riled Gove. The only common ground they had was to win.
After the dust had settled Gove was sat there with Boris, they began to plan ahead for the leadership and all he could see is him doing all the leg work once again whilst Boris took the credit. Left alone Boris has no idea how to create a cabal of support, once Gove stabbed his knife into the blonde ones back (I don't think he stabbed Cameron myself, he has been clear for years about his EU beliefs) Boris had no way forward.
Then Gove has taken a step I didn't expect; he went for the limelight himself and to take some of the Brexiteer support.
I'm very wary of *I took soundings* posts either way on here. The fellow Tory members they seem to know agree with their own personal view. Shock.
One reason why they may not be so quick to boot him out. It also would make them look stupid at their finest hour.
May 95 .. Crabb 22 .. Leadsom 20 .. Brutus 18 .. Fox 7
Politics is full of nodding dog sycophants.
p.11
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_28_06_2016_v2.pdf
More even than I expected. I would assume party members would be more pro-Leave, but that could be wishful thinking.
Unknown IDS beat well known Ken Clarke with the membership in 2001 though. That had to be about the EU.
If May does not top every ballot of MPs I will be amazed. I would be surprised to see Leadsom make the final two with her. Not jaw on the floor surprised, but definitely raised eyebrows.
I also don't see that Ms Leadsom would necessarily adopt the policies Mr Gove floated. She'll have her own preferences, and there be factions within the parliamentary party and country to court.
The only focus of the rest of this government will be foreign policy/trade. The UK-EU deal, non-EU trade deals (india favourite I think), and possibly a loose ex-EU alliance CANZUK (Canada, Australia, NZ, UK).
http://reaction.life/so-what-next/
(Autocorrect Freudian slip of the century - it changed 'pure' to 'our'!)
LBC did an interview with her the other day, link below.
https://audioboom.com/boos/4767097-listen-andrea-leadsom-makes-her-case-to-be-pm
I also think you are overestimating the importance of past labels on current votes. Unity and stability rather than ideological purity are going to be key. It might be different if Leave had somebody unambiguously good to put forward but the fact Leadsom is being talked up is a sign that they don't.
But I would also think they see an opportunity to truly wipe the floor with the Labour Party this time, like 1983 but better. Some of them will be thinking who the best person for such a job might be.
If the choice is Do the sensible thing, or screw things up and look like idiots, have you ever known UKIP not to go for the latter option....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/david-cameron-announces-his-resignation---full-statement/
I however do. I'm also sure that at least one of the two final MPs will be a Leave candidate.
His background before politics isn't much of anything either - nice chap, quite religious, charitable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Crabb
Andrea gaining strength this morning:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/748983897405452289
In terms of the Brexit referendum, there were pointers each way on here. My own feeling was that there was too little to go on to call it and it could be anywhere up to 60/40 either way.
This is about choosing a PM and the exit negotiations will only be one of the very many things the PM will need to deal with. I simply don't think Leadsom has the experience or has demonstrated the steel or the judgment yet to show that she is up to this job. It is very much bigger than simply being part of a team and saying some good lines in a TV debate. She has potential. Let Leadsom contribute as part of the team. But the top job?
At a time like this we need a serious, proven, experienced politician who has the experience and proven ability to do the patient detailed hard negotiating work with a range of allies on a range of matters, as well as all the other events which assail Prime Ministers.
This is not about rewarding the most effective Leave campaigner.
It's about electing a PM and that PM has to govern in the interests of the whole country and start to do something about starting to heal the divisions in the country which the referendum result has so painfully exposed.
You don't want Leave:Remain support to be a factor, but there's no way it can't be. We've just had a national debate on Leave:Remain. Con party members will likely have campaigned in that referendum, and who is the best PM to implement the result of that referendum will be the theme of this leadership election.
Useful summary, Mr. Herdson.
Let's hope there is tactical voting. I backed Gove at 21 to finish last in the first round. He's since fallen to 5, Crabb's 4 and Fox 1.5. Tempted to put down a wodge [by my standards] on Fox, but can't decide whether that's wise or not. Crabb's odds have lengthened and Gove's shortened consistently over the last few days.
1) Labour, who have had to manufacture roles for women to try to pretend that they're not a bunch of misogynists;
2) The 'right on' left, who will have to deal with the fact that both Britain's first female Prime Ministers were right-wing Tories;
3) Conservative Home, who wanted a Brexiteer;
4) George Osborne, who sent May to the Home Office to make sure she would never be his rival for the leadership;
5) The BBC, who having spent years attacking her in interviews are now going to have to grovel to her for information on the government.
Somebody who has seriously pissed off so many deeply unpleasant people can't be all bad, and watching their anger would be absolutely hilarious!
Some of us did talk about the many thousands of leaflets being handed out down in the south and of trades people enthusiastically taking a LEAVE leaflet. It was the absence of REMAIN posters in LIB DEM main roads that convinced me that this referendum was leaning towards LEAVE.
What eventually happened is unclear to me. If Carswell is expelled - does he get any? I presume not as he's not representative of enough national voters.
It is not going to happen though, Labour would prefer to continue digging their own graves.
EDIT - but as ever, @Cyclefree said it much more elegantly and indeed eloquently than I could.
It will gain her precisely zero (and possibly negative) credit in
FWIW I chatted yesterday to someone who knew her quite well when she was in the City. Verdict was that she was perfect competent but didn't sparkle. He feels that she only stands out because of the limitations of the current crowd - he didn't think that, in the abstract, she would have the capabilities to be PM.
He also noted that her roles in the City were one's that didn't really require her to make difficult judgement calls: they were process orientated.
The negotiation will be a team effort. The Conservatives are not picking a warrior-king.
Osborne would be a good nomination to head up the Brexit department.
YES WE MAY