politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead
Comments
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''Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better. ''
It is good news as long as the drop is reasonably modest. We want the bubble to deflate, not burst.0 -
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
Well done Brexit.
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I'd have thought her brother in law could've found the cash somewhere. Banks surely knows this; wonder why he's offering.anotherDave said:
Leadership candidates have a £135,000 spending limit. It would be nice not to have to try to find the money.TheScreamingEagles said:This might not help Andrea Leadsom
It's like Michael giving Fredo the kiss of death in The Godfather Part II.
Source closes to UKIP donor Arron Banks says he is keen to help out Andrea Leadsom’s leadership campaign in any way possible, including financially.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/arron-banks-offering-bankroll-leadsom-campaign/
I think it could be the other way round. A leaver could say "short term pain, long term gain, Battle of Britain, don't worry, you made the right decision etc.". A remainer can't - telling your voters they were wrong doesn't look good, and it all sounds a bit Project Fear - in which case you're opening yourself up to an attack from UKIP for waivering.SeanT said:
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy. Far better to have a Tory REMAINIAC in office who can say, Yes, well, I did say this might happen....SandyRentool said:Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
A LEAVER PM would be totally exposed, and could easily take the party to defeat in 2020,0 -
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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If the contest stays civil then Leadsom et al will be in cabinet if May wins, she is trying to appear practical and hard nosed so ejecting rivals would be lunacy.0
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Gove wants to be the British Trump but can't do it.Paristonda said:That is some pretty boilerplate campaign jargon from Gove. Has twitter not done one of those Obama Hope poster parodies yet?!
Michael Gove MP ✔ @Gove2016
The country voted for no more politics as usual. No more business as usual. I am the candidate for change. #Gove2016
"When we do trigger A50, it will be EEA". Then it's EEA whatever. She might as well say "when", just to keep the raving Leavers happy.SeanT said:We just have to hope that PM May comes in and says "it's EEA" very soon, to calm the markets. There are still REMAINIACS out there hoping we won't trigger A50 but the markets - including property - make that untenable. The longer the uncertainty, the more the chaos, and the greater the chance we will enter something quite apocalyptic.
We don't have ANY choice. It has to be EEA. Even John McDonnell gets that.SeanT said:We might even have to bite the bullet and say it will be EEA with Free Movement, for now.
Poles and Romanians could come here and get lower wages than their compatriots get now, and still make a lot more than they do in back home.SeanT said:May's excuse could be: net migration will slump anyway, as the economy slows.
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They are all crap and insulting to one set of potential voters, or another, or to the intelligence of all of them.NickPalmer said:Calling Roger and others - what do you make of these ideas?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/01/rejected-remain-campaign-posters-revealed-by-ad-agencies
Not totally convinced. The Farage pocket one sounds better.
At least the campaign or the agency had the sense to decide against using them.0 -
Owen Paterson is backing Leadsom. She is picking up people who have their own network of supporters.0
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House price falls - I'll believe it when I see it!0
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The Times are rather less exciteableSeanT said:
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.PlatoSaid said:
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.Pulpstar said:
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.tlg86 said:
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?Paristonda said:If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/juncker-vows-to-use-new-powers-to-block-the-far-right-nq5r5tnqq0 -
"“We’ve [Leave.eu] conducted extensive polling of our one million supporters and discovered that 43% typically vote Conservative, including as many as 30,000 paid-up party members.
“The data indicates that Andrea Leadsom is the clear frontrunner among those supporters,” he said."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/01/brexit-group-leave-eu-backs-andrea-leadsom-pm/
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No it won't.tyson said:
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
Well done Brexit.
I am really looking forward to pointing out exactly how stupid you have been in a years time. Assuming of course you have the courage to actually hang around when you are shown to have been crying wolf.0 -
David "Tyson" Blanchflowertyson said:
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
Well done Brexit.0 -
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.eek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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O/T:
Learned something new today: there is such a thing as a crab-eating fox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crab-eating_fox0 -
Good to hear Leadsome seems to be picking up backers, seeing as I've just shorted Gove.0
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Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)0 -
RE: House prices in London. With the fall in £ against the $ they are cheaper before any fall in the £ price tag and will now suck in even more foreign money.
What is going on are some folk using the referendum as a means to pay a bit less a reverse form of gazumping. A temporary situation.0 -
Keep articles like this coming, I want her to head inanotherDave said:"“We’ve [Leave.eu] conducted extensive polling of our one million supporters and discovered that 43% typically vote Conservative, including as many as 30,000 paid-up party members.
“The data indicates that Andrea Leadsom is the clear frontrunner among those supporters,” he said."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/01/brexit-group-leave-eu-backs-andrea-leadsom-pm/
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Not a surprise that Paterson for example is backing a Leaver, but bad news for Gove that he's picked Leadsom.Pulpstar said:Good to hear Leadsome seems to be picking up backers, seeing as I've just shorted Gove.
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Did you hear his Today interview this morning? It was classic Ken Clarke "Yes, I know all about Conservative leadership contests, it used to be a hobby of mine. I've given up the bad habit now, though".TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.eek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
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Maybe the EU should put us in special measures and send in their own team to run the country?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.eek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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This must be some new meaning of the word "liberal" of which I wasn't previously aware.PlatoSaid said:
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.Pulpstar said:
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.tlg86 said:
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?Paristonda said:If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"0 -
I think you've got ConHome and LibDemvoice mixed up.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.eek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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Tipped here at 20/1 and then 16/1 (not by me!)Scott_P said:0 -
I only saw excerpts of it on twitter, seemed to be in good formRichard_Nabavi said:
Did you hear his Today interview this morning? It was classic Ken Clarke "Yes, I know all about Conservative leadership contests, it used to be a hobby of mine. I've given up the bad habit now, though".TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm off to conhome for a while and peddle my Ken Clarke to head a unity government to keep us in the EU meme and see how they react.eek said:
Didn't rcs100\0 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist0 -
Newsnight had an interesting interview with the Trade Commissioner re negotiations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07j8mqp/newsnight-30062016
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
This was written up in a BBC web story earlier. But the commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.
A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
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No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
"...he also said, when asked by journalists, that he did not envisage that a Prime Minister Gove would invoke Article 50 this year"
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/01/gove-attacks-globalisation-says-no-article-50-before-2017/
Is that a problem?0 -
The EU have previous form on this.SeanT said:
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.PlatoSaid said:
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.Pulpstar said:
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.tlg86 said:
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?Paristonda said:If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government. (Haider's lot)0 -
Many people ask this question!Peter_the_Punter said:
Very kind, St John. Glad to see you posting too.stjohn said:
PtP! Welcome back! You've been missed.Peter_the_Punter said:
I have been lurking, but from the safety of a different planet. What planet are you on these days?0 -
Oh, by Britain's wealth you meant bricks and mortar.tyson said:Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
London will be the most effected and the market is well up in recent years. It can afford a small decrease.0 -
In the height of the financial crash and Lehman Bros going bankrupt GDP dropped by 7.5%. Do you think it will be better or worse than that?tyson said:
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
Well done Brexit.0 -
In hindsight they clearly needed to really convince people that no matter how poor they are now, it can always get worse. Whereas project fear focused too much on ABC1 economic issues (falling house prices, how will the City cope etc). So less of the "why take the risk" approach, which as discussed on here, doesn't apply to those who perceive they have nothing to lose.NickPalmer said:Calling Roger and others - what do you make of these ideas?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/01/rejected-remain-campaign-posters-revealed-by-ad-agencies
Not totally convinced. The Farage pocket one sounds better.
Maybe something like an image of Farage or Boris jumping out of a frying pan into an offscreen fire0 -
General Election this year:logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
███████████████▌
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Well I doubt Ozzie peddling his long term economic plan would go down well Nick.NickPalmer said:Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
I tell you one thing, Brexit, and all those associated with it will be punished for their economic illiteracy. And, the Remain Tories will be punished for being so stupid and hubristic to allow a vote.
Where they go....that is upto Labour to provide a relatively non threatening home.
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My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.MyBurningEars said:Newsnight had an interesting interview with the Trade Commissioner re negotiations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07j8mqp/newsnight-30062016
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
This was written up in a BBC web story earlier. But the commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.
A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?0 -
HTML BANMarkHopkins said:
General Election this year:logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
███████████████▌0 -
I don't think the EU Commissioners are going to have much say in the UK-EU deal. Nation states are going to be looking to their own interests.MyBurningEars said:Newsnight had an interesting interview with the Trade Commissioner re negotiations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07j8mqp/newsnight-30062016
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief.
I think there may be some misunderstanding there, in that we have to trigger article 50 before beginning to negotiate.
In any event, as she says article 50 has never been used before, so they'll be making it up as they go.0 -
I'm guessing the Tories would prefer to wait for the new boundaries to come into effect before having a GE. Could wipe out 20% of Labour's seats in Wales.MarkHopkins said:
General Election this year:logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
███████████████▌0 -
Precisely. The Commissioner is talking bollocks.TheWhiteRabbit said:My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.
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Is the Austrian election re-run going to be like the Winchester 97 by election?0
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Same is going to be true more or less however the house prices come down. Which is why lots of government have chickened out from doing it, doesn't mean it doesn't need to happen.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
Nope... The 2014 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
Michael Farron has backed Theresa May.0
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populist... you mean giving voters what they want, its an interesting idea I suppose, not sure it is going to catch on though.tyson said:Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist0 -
Only 3 female Tory MPs are backing Gove at present. Nicky Morgan, Andrea Jenkyns and Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?usp=sharing&pref=2&pli=1&sle=true0 -
Project Fear has so far turned out to be a pretty accurate forecast ( Yes I know it is early days )HappyMcFluffy said:
I'd have thought her brother in law could've found the cash somewhere. Banks surely knows this; wonder why he's offering.anotherDave said:
Leadership candidates have a £135,000 spending limit. It would be nice not to have to try to find the money.TheScreamingEagles said:This might not help Andrea Leadsom
It's like Michael giving Fredo the kiss of death in The Godfather Part II.
Source closes to UKIP donor Arron Banks says he is keen to help out Andrea Leadsom’s leadership campaign in any way possible, including financially.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/01/arron-banks-offering-bankroll-leadsom-campaign/
I think it could be the other way round. A leaver could say "short term pain, long term gain, Battle of Britain, don't worry, you made the right decision etc.". A remainer can't - telling your voters they were wrong doesn't look good, and it all sounds a bit Project Fear - in which case you're opening yourself up to an attack from UKIP for waivering.SeanT said:
Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy. Far better to have a Tory REMAINIAC in office who can say, Yes, well, I did say this might happen....SandyRentool said:Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.
A LEAVER PM would be totally exposed, and could easily take the party to defeat in 2020,
A £ sterling that has devalued 15% against the worlds basket case currencies such as the Vietnamese Dong , Bangladeshi Taka and Guatamalan Quetzel . Im sure it will help our exports to these important trading nations .
Meanwhile UKIP seem to be giving up fighting elections . 25 council by elections in July have just 8 UKIP candidates . 5 more by elections have nominations closing at 4 pm today .UKIP are unlikely to fight more than 2 of these .
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She probably hasn't read Article 50 very well.Richard_Nabavi said:
Precisely. The Commissioner is talking bollocks.TheWhiteRabbit said:My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.
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It won't be as bad in terms of the overall drop from start to finish- but during a recession you have to take into account the growth that doesn't happen too.MaxPB said:
In the height of the financial crash and Lehman Bros going bankrupt GDP dropped by 7.5%. Do you think it will be better or worse than that?tyson said:
Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Brilliant news. I only hope it spreads across the country. I am afraid it will only be short lived but the longer it goes on and the greater the drops the better.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
Well done Brexit.
I'll give it a 5-6% recession (top to bottom) and a 4-5% add on for the growth we could have had without Brexit.
A 10% tsunami on our nations wealth will cripple our public finances mind. Little wonder Ozzie is giving up on the 2020 predictions. Our debt is likely to go to around 130% plus of GDP- years and years and years of austerity are coming.
Brexit Britain. Get used to it. We are going to be a much poorer country. Still we can bring back metric measures.
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And 30 somethings routinely having to live with their mums and dads is a terrible thing for everybody. Can I suggest that you are overreacting a tad to a *reported* reduction in *asking prices* at the top (so far) of the insanest property bubble in history (so far)?tyson said:Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist0 -
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:SeanT said:You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit.
2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike.
3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.0 -
The banks have all passed the stress test.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
Quisling Yellow ToryMaxPB said:Michael Farron has backed Theresa May.
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Also, it's trivially obvious what the solution is. They just need to call the talks 'negotiations about exit arrangements' rather than a 'trade deal', and that fixes the problem.Richard_Nabavi said:
Precisely. The Commissioner is talking bollocks.TheWhiteRabbit said:My instinct is if Britain doesn't want it, Germany doesn't want it, the EU doesn't want it, it won't happen.
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I think you'll find the property bubble is SE centric....most of Britain has hardly recovered after 2008. And the SE is the economic dynamo for our economy.Ishmael_X said:
And 30 somethings routinely having to live with their mums and dads is a terrible thing for everybody. Can I suggest that you are overreacting a tad to a *reported* reduction in *asking prices* at the top (so far) of the insanest property bubble in history (so far)?tyson said:Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.
Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist
A property crash which is coming- at least 20% maybe more will cripple our economy.
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What Britain needs is more homes.
Homebuilders hard hit by Brexit - might damage their confidence going forward.
One of @currystar posts on this pre-vote that started to change my mind on the whole caboodle.
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The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.SeanT said:
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.Indigo said:
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?SeanT said:I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.0 -
I'm allowing the strike tags, but no colour and no big texteek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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I think we're looking at 30-40% inner London (unfortunately for you and I) and maybe 20-30% in outer London, 20% in the rest of the country.SeanT said:
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.Indigo said:
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?SeanT said:I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.0 -
UKIP may be doing that for Labour either way!AndyJS said:
I'm guessing the Tories would prefer to wait for the new boundaries to come into effect before having a GE. Could wipe out 20% of Labour's seats in Wales.MarkHopkins said:
General Election this year:logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
███████████████▌0 -
In opposition several years ahead of the next GE would be a reasonable chance for Leadsome - a day away from being Prime Minister, not.MaxPB said:
That assumes Andrea Leadsom wins vs Theresa. I don't think she would. If the race was being conducted in opposition then I think Leadsom would have a good shot, but whoever wins this becomes PM and has a tricky few years ahead of them. I think the members will pick who they know and someone they can trust to be a safe pair of hands. This leadership election has come two years too early for LeadsomSandyRentool said:Am I the only one thinking that Gove has taken one for the team? Clear Boris out of the way, draw all of the flak, and give Leadsom a clear run against May.
If Leadsom wins, Gove gets to be Chancellor, we get the Brexit deal he favours, Farage gets put back in his box and all of the Tory Leavers are generally happy.0 -
Housebuilding is one of those policy areas which needs better central planning. Leaving it up the market hasn't worked as companies like to have their cake and eat it by restricting supply.Pulpstar said:What Britain needs is more homes.
Homebuilders hard hit by Brexit - might damage their confidence going forward.
One of @currystar posts on this pre-vote that started to change my mind on the whole caboodle.0 -
If I may very politely say so, Sean, there speaks a homeowner.SeanT said:
You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?Cookie said:
Of all the problems currently facing the UK, house prices not being sufficiently high doesn't really strike me as top of the list.Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
It's a massive, massive problem for this country how many people are unable to afford a house and have no prospect of ever realistically doing so. It's masked, of course, in the pleasant circles that you and I move in, because we're of a generation where most people have houses, and because people have alternative sources of money - inheritances, etc.
I'd say we need much more than a 10% correction; a 25% correction wouldn't be the end of the world: it would maybe, in Manchester, take us all the way back to 2012.
And I take your points about confidence, etc, but this part of our economy is built on sand.
I'm nt cheerfully advocating a house price crash; I know there will be losers; this isn't a problem with an easy solution. But I hope ne day that my daughters might own their own houses, when they grow up, and at the moment this looks a pipe dream. Along with any prospect f me ever retiring.
This isn't a pro- or anti-Brexit post, by the way; just a lament about house prices.0 -
They didn't in the Subprime Crisis. I think you might need a lie down in a darkened room.SeanT said:
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?eek said:
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
Here it is:currystar said:
O/T An update on the Construction Industry in Southern Hampshire:
It is unreal, far too much work around for the labour available, prices and wages are pushing up all the time. We are turning down work all the time. Our turnover has gone from £4million to £10 million in 4 years and our staff levels have doubled.
Why do we want to risk this booming economy?0 -
What about marquee?rcs1000 said:
I'm allowing the strike tags, but no colour and no big texteek said:
Didn't rcs1000 state that any use of HTML tags after noon today was a 24 hour ban....TheScreamingEagles said:Were Gove to become Prime Minister/Leader, he'd be the first ex Chief Whip to become leader of the major parties since Francis Urquhart Ted Heath right?
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Labour List
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.0 -
I am not sure about this question, but I would create a three minute video of everything that has unfolded this past week and show it to our party leaders in Xmas 2014 before the run up to the 2015 election.NickPalmer said:Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.
I suspect at the very least Ed Miliband would not have resigned on defeat saving us from the whole Corbyn thing
Cameron would have approached the referendum very differently, if not shelving the whole thing.
Clegg would have resigned on the spot, to be replaced by Cable or a popular LD.
Sturgeon would have died from laughter.
Ironically, Farage would have rejected the whole thing as a fiction.0 -
A good question! I wouldn't change my 2015 GE Vote ....but (and this is a very big but), the result of the EU referendum means that my vote in the next GE is up for grabs. A moderate, reforming party is attractive, but only if they have fully accepted Brexit.NickPalmer said:Idle curiosity: if the 2015 GE was re-run, with the same leaders and platforms that we had then, would anyone here, bearing in mind subsequrent events, vote differently?
Someone commented downthread on how little party preference seemed to be moving. I think it's because most people have a default preference and it takes an earthquake to make them shift as they're otherwise not really paying attention. Brexit does qualify as an earthquake, but not one with clear party lines.0 -
They would be back at 2013 levels in London.SeanT said:
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?eek said:
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
They'd still be okay. RBS would have to raise capital, but beyond that I think there wouldn't be a lot going on. The banking sector is extremely well funded this time around. Leverage is about 8x across the sector vs around 40x in 2008. The capital buffers will hold.SeanT said:
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?eek said:
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
I was living in Balham when the 1988 bubble burst - prices fell 40% and took a decade to recover !!Indigo said:
The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.SeanT said:
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.Indigo said:
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?SeanT said:I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.0 -
@tyson
'Considering our economic growth is driven by consumer debt, taking into account probably the partial paralysis of business investment the uncertainty in the City, the Brexit tsunami is coming- the recession will kick in the last quarter and destroy our country's wealth by about 10%.'
How's the Italian bank bailout going,have they found the € 40 billion yet ?
I see their pals in Germany have blocked them from breaking Eurozone regulations.
It seems Portugal needs a similar deal and no doubt Greece will soon be joining the queue.
'Is Europe In Trouble Again: Hints Of Portuguese, Italian Bank Bailouts Suggest Not All Is Well
Zero Hedge - 23 hours ago
Italian banks dive as Merkel dismisses bailout hopes
Financial Times - 1 day ago0 -
Not sure why leavers would be worried about may as a remainers. There are all leavers now. The only things that would stop leaving would be so major even a leaver would stop it and that isn't happening.
The only argument might be a remainers might not implement everything promised but leavers acknowledge that won't be the case with them either - a series of possibilities and all that.0 -
0
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"Post-Brexit gloom about UK residential property has taken hold, with investors pricing in a 5 per cent fall in home values over the coming year." - according the the FT anyway.calum said:
I was living in Balham when the 1988 bubble burst - prices fell 40% and took a decade to recover !!Indigo said:
The estimates in the papers over the weekend was 5% outside London, 10-20% in London.SeanT said:
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.Indigo said:
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?SeanT said:I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.0 -
My view is similar - we're essentially looking at a bounce back to about 2012. (When prices were still too high for y liking, but that's another issue). At which point the market will bottom out for a bit and then start to rise again.MaxPB said:
I think we're looking at 30-40% inner London (unfortunately for you and I) and maybe 20-30% in outer London, 20% in the rest of the country.SeanT said:
No, I'm resigned to losing 20% of the value of my flat. It was always nominal anyway, I've no desire to move. And 20% is about two years' worth of inflating values.Indigo said:
Are you talking your property portfolio book by any chance ?SeanT said:I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
And London always bounces back.
BUT I don't want to see 20, 30, 50% drops across the country, that would be catastrophic.
But how much of this is down to Brexit? Surely a correction of this magnitude or similar would have happened anyway after the turbo-charged boom of the last four years?0 -
Does anyone know when the EPLP NEC member departs? Is it entwined with Article 50 or do the Labour Party have to manually remove the post from their constitution...
I only ask because I doubt the current EPLP NEC member supports Corbyn and he is no doubt a Eurosceptic... will this strengthen the control of the hard left?0 -
chestnut said:
They would be back at 2013 levels in London.SeanT said:
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?eek said:
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/748854912012918784
!!!!
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Welcome back PtP ..... where've you been these past umpteen months???0
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David Miliband 6.2/1 on betfair....David_Evershed said:Labour List
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.0 -
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
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I think we're looking at a price drop whatever happens, obviously it won't be as big if we stay in the single market, but I'd guess 20% for those of us in inner London is fair.SeanT said:
Well that's cheering.rcs1000 said:
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:SeanT said:You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit.
2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike.
3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
And that's just the effect of house prices.
Add in the fall in inward investment, the decline of the City, the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours, etc etc etc, and we could be looking at a 10-20% drop in GDP. Which is like the economic damage done by a mild civil war.
Fab!
But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.0 -
If I were Angela Eagle, trailing Corbyn by only 10% I would be confident of beating him. After all every major figure in the PLP past and present could come out in support.eek said:
David Miliband 6.2/1 on betfair....David_Evershed said:Labour List
"While anti-Corbyn MPs believe they need to rally around a single challenger, there is no consensus among members as who the obvious choice would be. In a head-to-head with Corbyn, Angela Eagle would lose by 40 per cent to Corbyn’s 50 per cent, Tom Watson by 39 per cent to 50 per cent, and Dan Jarvis by 35 per cent to 52 per cent."
Basic tactical error of the Labour rebels is that they needed to have a credible alternative to Corbyn who would win in the membership election.
By not having a candidate to beat Corbyn, the rebels have demonstrated how weak they are and passed the initiative to Corbyn and Co.0 -
I am interested in how you feel joining the EEA will stop the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours. Or why you feel there will be a drop in inward investment in the medium term given the number of commonwealth and other countries lining up over the last couple of days to make trade agreements with us. But mostly I am interested in why you think this will cause a larger drop in GDP than the entire Subprime Crisis and Lehman's crash ?SeanT said:But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.
0 -
Who said the City was declining?SeanT said:
Well that's cheering.rcs1000 said:
The UK economy has been 'boosted' by high house prices in three ways:SeanT said:You don't seem to grasp how the UK economy is founded on house prices, and the confidence they bring. Yes a modest correction would be good. 10%? But this is like lighting a wildfire to clear a small portion of a very dry forest: the chances it could get out of hand are big, and the whole forest could burn. Who's to say property prices won't halve?
What would that do?
And then there's the confidence thing. Rising house prices make homeowners feel happy and prosperous (even if it's bogus), falling house prices bring negative equity and retail slumps and the entire economy seizes up. We could be facing the worst case Brexit scenarios of a 5-10% drop in GDP.
10% is almost twice the drop we experienced after 2008.
I hope I'm wrong and it's just a modest correction, mainly in London and the SE, which would very arguably be a good thing. But no one knows.
1. They've brought in a lot of money from foreign investors, allowing us to run a sizeable current account deficit.
2. They have meant that a lot of people feel financially secure during the downtown ("well, I've got £100,000 in my house"), which meant that the UK savings rate didn't spike.
3. They've stimulated construction activity.
The problem with the first two of these things is that they've fundamentally unbalanced the UK economy. The UK has the worst current account deficit in the developed world, one of the worst budget deficits, the lowest savings rate, and huge amounts of consumer debt.
In fact, if you look at the UK economy in 2016, it looks awfully like the Spanish one in 2006, with similar levels (and types) of imbalances. We have the advantage of a flexible currency to take some of the strain, but realistically we are going to have to see our savings rate go from 4% to 11%, and that's going to be horrendous. The last time something like that happened was 1990-92, and saw house prices fall 40% in real terms, and unemployment double.
And that's just the effect of house prices.
Add in the fall in inward investment, the decline of the City, the slowing economies of our post-Brexit neighbours, etc etc etc, and we could be looking at a 10-20% drop in GDP. Which is like the economic damage done by a mild civil war.
Fab!
But, as I keep saying, this is not inevitable. The fecking Tories have to admit all this, and go for EEA immediately, and stop the madness. Confidence will return, and quickly, if investors, homebuyers, bankers, know that not much will change, at least at first, as we keep all our economic ties with the EU.
http://www.cityam.com/244483/london-retain-financial-centre
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Crabb and Fox are losing MP endorsements.
Latest per Con Home:
May - 84
Crabb - 19
Leadsom - 16
Gove - 14
Fox - 6
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/whos-backing-who-our-running-list-of-mps-supporting-each-leadership-candidate.html
Changes compared to Con Home close of play last night:
May - up 5
Crabb - down 3
Leadsom - up 2
Gove - up 1
Fox - down 30 -
Voters at the general election selected more Conservative MPs than from other parties. We have a parliamentary government where the MPs chose the government and the governing party choose their Prime Minister.MarkHopkins said:
General Election this year:logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects 2h2 hours ago
On a General Election this year:
Support: 52%
Oppose: 32%
(via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
Support: 52%
█████████████████████████
Oppose: 32%
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The Conservative manifesto spelt out that there would be a referendum on the EU membership.
So the government is following the constitution and the path set out. There should not be a general election until 2020.0 -
So we're not back to where we were before the crash in 2008? I am surprised at that.John_M said:
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
EDIT: I suppose this is the UK figure. It would be interesting to see a Greater South East chart. I reckon house prices have been pretty static in many places outside the South East since 2008.0 -
(EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government)Disraeli said:
The EU have previous form on this.SeanT said:
If that is true (it does come from Breitbart, who can be quite excitable) then this alone means we were right to leave the EU. It is fundamentally undemocratic. Non-democracy is in its DNA and it will never, ever change.PlatoSaid said:
It's a massive dare to the EU to freeze Austria's voting rights et al. I hope Hofer wins. It's a ceremonial role, but it directly challenges the whole undemocratic attitude of the EU.Pulpstar said:
Massive symbolism if Hofer wins.tlg86 said:
Isn't the President of Austria not that important? I get it would be significant, but what practical implications would it have?Paristonda said:If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/24/eu-vows-use-new-powers-block-elected-far-right-populists-power/
"Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, promised to exclude Norbert Hofer, the leader of Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), from all EU decision-making if elected ahead of yesterday’s presidential vote.
“There will be no debate or dialogue with the far-right,” the liberal bureaucrat told AFP"
In 2000, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctions on Austria after the Far-right FPO was allowed into the ruling coalition government. (Haider's lot)
...it is all about sharing sovereignty and it makes life fairer etc the europhiles will say.
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Does the rise in house prices get reflected in GDP in any way?John_M said:
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.0 -
In dollar terms, over a decade IMO that's certainly possible, if not likely.SeanT said:
And what if houses drop by 50% in value?eek said:
Nope... The 2016 BoE stress tests for banking were based on a 30% drop in house prices. The banks passed them.FeersumEnjineeya said:
No sane person could deny that house prices need to come down, but doesn't this cause big problems for the banks providing mortgages on these houses if/when the borrowers default?eek said:
At long last. Anyone who thinks that expensive housing is a good thing for the country needs their head examined...Scott_P said:
Nothing to worry aboutSeanT said:Leadsom has the same problem as the other LEAVE candidates; when and if the economy tanks after Brexit, and it surely will - to a greater or lesser extent - the voters will not be happy.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/7488549120129187840 -
Yep, increased rent goes to the banks and doesn't get spent on other things (i.e. its a drag on growth)...Lowlander said:
Does the rise in house prices get reflected in GDP in any way?John_M said:
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.0 -
Depends where you are.tlg86 said:
So we're not back to where we were before the crash in 2008? I am surprised at that.John_M said:
That's the inflation-adjusted house price graph since '75. Says it all really.
If nothing else Brexit should concentrate minds. The BoP figures came out yesterday. They weren't as bad as Q4 last year, but they were pretty terrible.
EDIT: I suppose this is the UK figure. It would be interesting to see a Greater South East chart. I reckon house prices have been pretty static in many places outside the South East since 2008.
Edit: Oh I see you edited to say that! House prices still down in NI and large parts of the North of England.
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