Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
If he does impose a deselection process he is going to have a turnover of MP's that would make Putin blush, where is he going to find these sacrificial lambs? And if he gets his followers to do it, how long before one of them says something massively stupid, or just plain acts like Ken?
Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
What's this thing with people putting (((brackets))) around their name?
Amazingly to confuse racists.
Some nutters developed an algorithm that identifies people and puts brackets so other nutters could find them, so people put brackets to confuse the algorithm AFAIK
Agreed. LDs need to plan for 2020 and not try and fight GE2015.
Given what seemed likely this time last week, it'd be a brave man who can predict what will happen next week let alone over the next four years.
I'm cautiously optimistic a new month starts tomorrow and the Eclipse at Sandown will be won by a horse with a jockey on it. Beyond that, I'm guessing.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
None of that disproves what I said. Not even slightly in fact, so repeating it four times doesn't make it any more relevant, and that applies to Lamb as well. Labour lost the last election, are they not respecting the democratic process by pledging to win the next one. Farron is saying we will leave, that won't be stopped, but he will seek to reverse it democratically. .................................Now, I don't think the LDs would win on a pledge to rejoin the EU. But desiring to 'rejoin' rather than pledging to ignore the request to leave, is not undemocratic. Unless Lamb is an idiot, I would hope he is referring to people seeking to prevent Leave happening, which could be labelled as so.
I think some people are a bit annoyed that Farron is bypassing the party processes for writing the General Election manifesto. Frankly, unless he is setting his ambitions very low, it seems a crazy policy to adopt. I doubt trying to re-enter the EU, with most if not all of the opt-outs gone, would attract more than a very small element of support from the electorate. Maybe in ten years once the long term effects can start to be accurately assessed, and even then it would probably take many further years to get in. And it would be doubtful that the EU would even consider it, unless they had fundamentally changed in the mean time.
I agree (no surprise). What they are trying to do is hoover up the 48%. The problem is that only a minority of the 48% are solid europhiles (probably 10/48) and of those they have Lab and Con loyalties. The LDs current circa 8% also probably only has 5/8 for REMAIN and 3/8 for LEAVE. So it may be counter productive to gain a few % of the 10/48 and end up not much more ahead. Also in the process of doing it they risk losing REMAIN democrats who get upset at trying to over turn the stated views of the voters - it is just not British! All numbers approximate but the scale is about right.
What a difference a week makes. This time last week, we were mostly expecting a clear Remain win.
Someone (I'm looking at YOU, @rcs1000) should put the last week's PB articles and comments on to a DVD and bury it is some time capsule for future historians to find, research, and wonder at.
Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
Great to hear from the sage of onion.
First MP to unresign ?
Burnham. He may over look the fact that he did not resign in the first place.
What a difference a week makes. This time last week, we were mostly expecting a clear Remain win.
Someone (I'm looking at YOU, @rcs1000) should put the last week's PB articles and comments on to a DVD and bury it is some time capsule for future historians to find, research, and wonder at.
Some of us, and humility prevents naming, were limbering up to get 15-1 on Leave....
... As if this was not bad enough I have had in the last few days the election of a new Dean of Faculty and now have the election for Vice Dean (Gordon Jackson QC and former MSP having won the former from the latter position)...
Presumably, these elections are even more ruthless than Tory leadership elections?
Of course Leadsom won't win. The Leavers are just scrabbling around for any candidate now, because one of their heroes has just been humiliated, and the other shown as having low morals. May, the Remainer, will walk it. So much for conventional wisdom.
I'd be happy for either May or Leadsom to get the job, though my preference is for May. She gave an excellent speech and was very clear that Brexit is Brexit. This was pleasing to hear. Joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth etc. We are all Brexiteers now.
What a difference a week makes. This time last week, we were mostly expecting a clear Remain win.
Someone (I'm looking at YOU, @rcs1000) should put the last week's PB articles and comments on to a DVD and bury it is some time capsule for future historians to find, research, and wonder at.
Some of us, and humility prevents naming, were limbering up to get 15-1 on Leave....
Some of us were about to take a bath... I'm back to betting against 'my team' - never back spurs or remain. Hence I've put a bit on Leadsom now.
Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
For me it has to be May; Gove is destroyed, Crabb and Leadsom are unknown and too big a risk and Fox is known all too well. Still, at least there's some talent there, Labour are just a gibbering wreck at the moment.
What's this thing with people putting (((brackets))) around their name?
I googled it, neo-nazis started referring to Jewish people with brackets around their names then using a special website to search Twitter for them. Making it easier to dog-whistle about someone.
It's become an I Am Spartacus thing now to stop the method being effective
Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
Éoin @LabourEoin Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
What's this thing with people putting (((brackets))) around their name?
Amazingly to confuse racists.
Some nutters developed an algorithm that identifies people and puts brackets so other nutters could find them, so people put brackets to confuse the algorithm AFAIK
Hard to say which is the more ridiculous out of Conservative and Labour right now, quite enjoyable to watch though. What awful people they all are.
I find it hard to believe I'd ever vote Conservative again, if Leadsom was leader I'd at least consider it.
Not much to admire in any of the political shenanigans, but one thing I do like: that it's possible the Conservatives may be putting 2 women forward for the members' vote and nobody is talking about anything other than their suitability for the job.
No big deal, and that's really important - a big step forward.
The Tory process is bloody and ruthless, but attracts strong personalities and as such a persons sex has little to do with it.
Hard to say which is the more ridiculous out of Conservative and Labour right now, quite enjoyable to watch though. What awful people they all are.
I find it hard to believe I'd ever vote Conservative again, if Leadsom was leader I'd at least consider it.
Not much to admire in any of the political shenanigans, but one thing I do like: that it's possible the Conservatives may be putting 2 women forward for the members' vote and nobody is talking about anything other than their suitability for the job.
No big deal, and that's really important - a big step forward.
With a bit of luck the USA might get a formidable lady from Massachusetts as a running mate for Hillary Clinton---Elizabeth Warren :
I agree (no surprise). What they are trying to do is hoover up the 48%. The problem is that only a minority of the 48% are solid europhiles (probably 10/48) and of those they have Lab and Con loyalties. The LDs current circa 8% also probably only has 5/8 for REMAIN and 3/8 for LEAVE. So it may be counter productive to gain a few % of the 10/48 and end up not much more ahead. Also in the process of doing it they risk losing REMAIN democrats who get upset at trying to over turn the stated views of the voters - it is just not British! All numbers approximate but the scale is about right.
I agree (more surprisingly). It's a valid argument to say we should consider the question once again after 5 or 10 years - the fact is we would have to rejoin on very different terms to those on which we left though if LEAVE is the disaster some claim, those terms might look very reasonable.
I consider myself an internationalist and there is a constituency that considers leaving the EU the most internationalist thing we could have done and I get that. The possibility of re-engaging with the Far East, Australasia and Latin America is compelling. As a liberal, I like being out there in the world, trading collaborating and co-operating on regional and global problems.
It's enticing and exciting to be away from the European backwater but it poses some challenges relating to our educational, economic and political mindsets.
Apologies, I meant in terms of Westminster. If she had been a minister for a few years she would have a much better chance I think. I cannot see May running the party forever to be honest, never struck me as anything more than a placeholder leader until a new generation can jockey into position. I mean suddenly with Cameron and Johnson gone and Osborne toxic, the field is wide open again for the first time since 2005.
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
If he does impose a deselection process he is going to have a turnover of MP's that would make Putin blush, where is he going to find these sacrificial lambs? And if he gets his followers to do it, how long before one of them says something massively stupid, or just plain acts like Ken?
That would be awesome.
All parties have a rump of MP's that don't completely reflect the party itself but are useful in the party being effective at parliament, so for every Bill Cash the Tories have a Nicky Morgan. Now imagine you have a large membership, who hate anything to the right of Ernest Bevan and will deselect on a whim; a party of Burgon's who will be a car crash on tv every day.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 25 We must respect the democratic process
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 But we are democrats and we do have to respect the outcome of this referendum
Norman Lamb @normanlamb Jun 26 We must respect the outcome of the vote.
Norman Lamb @normanlamb 6 hours ago I must always respect the democratic process Norman Lamb Retweeted Ralph Buckle And democracy supporting Lib Dems should consider if membership of that party is consistent with what they stand 4
Now, I don't think the LDs would win on a pledge to rejoin the EU. But desiring to 'rejoin' rather than pledging to ignore the request to leave, is not undemocratic. Unless Lamb is an idiot, I would hope he is referring to people seeking to prevent Leave happening, which could be labelled as so.
Frankly, unless he is setting his ambitions very low, it seems a crazy policy to adopt. I doubt trying to re-enter the EU, with most if not all of the opt-outs gone, would attract more than a very small element of support from the electorate. Maybe in ten years once the long term effects can start to be accurately assessed, and even then it would probably take many further years to get in. And it would be doubtful that the EU would even consider it, unless they had fundamentally changed in the mean time.
I paddled off to LibDemVoice to have a butchers. Based on their analysis, the Lib Dem homelands (even those lost to them in 2015) split roughly evenly between Remain/Leave.
It's a huge strategic mistake to use the EU as a raison d'etre. They'd be far better off going full Internationalist. There was a good deal of pushback in the comments regarding Farron's announcement.
If Brexit does go tits up, then one or both of the major parties would adopt a BrBackIn strategy...where does that leave them? Having said all that, I've never understood the LibDems, though I could grok the old Liberal party.
The logic, surely, is that no other party (in England) can claim to speak for the pro-EY 48%, and hence there is a gap in the market. Further, the most exercised on the issue are the young, especially students, which used to be a LibDem key constituency.
Even if there's no GE, the EU extraction is clearly going to drag on for ages and be still ongoing when we next vote. Hence it will figure as a big issue in the campaign. UKIP will speak for those that want nothing to do with the EU, the Tories will be heading for some sort of EEA approach, the LibDems speak for those that want to rejoin, leaving Labour the party with the identity problem, trapped between the pro-EU views of its Waitrose shopping London supporters and the anti-EU wwc.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I'd forgotten about Chilcot, even more reputations ruined, bring it on.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well.
Gove chaining himself to Osborne looks like a terrible decision. Osborne is toxic.
There were two huge missteps by the Remain campaign (insofar as my family were concerned). One: Little Englander. Two: Punishment budget. Completely alienated my generally wet Tory relatives. Don't think Osborne is a plus for Gove by any stretch of the imagination.
"Punishment budget" is a stupid phrase presumably invented by Leavers. Osborne was just saying that if the economy deteriorates some financial adjustments would have to be made. Common sense really but like so much from the cynics and overpaid TV presenters (WW3) a proper debate was not to be had and no plan was put forward.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
Its hard to follow but here are various tweets yesterday from 3 MEPs
Afzal Khan MEP @akhanmep Jun 29 @BBCNormanS majority Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reason I did not.
Claude Moraes MEP @ClaudeMoraesMEP Jun 29 @BBCNormanS A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reasons I did not.
Jude Kirton-DarlingVerified account @Jude_KD Jude Kirton-Darling Retweeted norman smith A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter.I didn't for personal reasons.Just thought should set record straight
Leadsom is in favour of Heathrow and Gatwick expansion. (LBC interview today)
Given the way the whole country is going to become a desolate, post apocalyptic back-water, we'll probably have to mothball Heathrow and Gatwick nevermind expand them...
Gin1138.. you ought to change your handle to "weathervane"
The odious George Osborne will have the humiliation of being demoted by somebody who is currently his junior, few will lose any sleep over that. All wannabe politicians should study his behaviour in the last couple of years in a lesson about humility and modesty.
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
If he does impose a deselection process he is going to have a turnover of MP's that would make Putin blush, where is he going to find these sacrificial lambs? And if he gets his followers to do it, how long before one of them says something massively stupid, or just plain acts like Ken?
That would be awesome.
All parties have a rump of MP's that don't completely reflect the party itself but are useful in the party being effective at parliament, so for every Bill Cash the Tories have a Nicky Morgan. Now imagine you have a large membership, who hate anything to the right of Ernest Bevan and will deselect on a whim; a party of Burgon's who will be a car crash on tv every day.
"a party of Burgon's" We would need a new clean air act to cope with the farting commie.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well.
Gove chaining himself to Osborne looks like a terrible decision. Osborne is toxic.
There were two huge missteps by the Remain campaign (insofar as my family were concerned). One: Little Englander. Two: Punishment budget. Completely alienated my generally wet Tory relatives. Don't think Osborne is a plus for Gove by any stretch of the imagination.
"Punishment budget" is a stupid phrase presumably invented by Leavers. Osborne was just saying that if the economy deteriorates some financial adjustments would have to be made. Common sense really but like so much from the cynics and overpaid TV presenters (WW3) a proper debate was not to be had and no plan was put forward.
Not at all. The term was entirely apposite. The basic concept was flawed: when an economy experiences a negative shock like Brexit, the last thing you need is tax rises. May's view is correct, Osborne made a misjudgement. That he omitted the IA budget from cuts but tried to frighten pensioners just compounded that misjudgement. Further, he's repeatedly kicked the deficit reduction can down the road when it suited him. On Brexit, all of a sudden that became impossible.
When Osborne is good, he's very, very good. When he's bad, he's just Gordon Brown in a slightly better suit.
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
Didn't everyone go barmy on here about Labour's 'racist mug'
Didn't it just say "Controls on Immigration', isn't that exactly what all Brexiters are now claiming isn't racist at all?
I think a lot of people who called it a "racist mug" did not honestly think that Labour were racist for making such a mug. They were delighting in the fact that Labour-supporting metropolitan media luvvies would look at such a mug and (at least if it was in Tory blue with "I'm voting for Michael Howard" on it) have a deep and sudden urge to denounce it as racist.
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
And it isn't even deliberate, which is the most interesting part so it cannot be seen as a sop to the electorate.
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
Anne mentioned earlier that she was please to see candidates being weighed on their merits rather than on their gender. I'd be equally pleased if we could ignore educational background as well. We could have an Old Etonian Thousand Year Reich for all I care, if the candidates were superb. Ditto if it were Sink Estate Comp.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well.
Gove chaining himself to Osborne looks like a terrible decision. Osborne is toxic.
There were two huge missteps by the Remain campaign (insofar as my family were concerned). One: Little Englander. Two: Punishment budget. Completely alienated my generally wet Tory relatives. Don't think Osborne is a plus for Gove by any stretch of the imagination.
"Punishment budget" is a stupid phrase presumably invented by Leavers. Osborne was just saying that if the economy deteriorates some financial adjustments would have to be made. Common sense really but like so much from the cynics and overpaid TV presenters (WW3) a proper debate was not to be had and no plan was put forward.
Not at all. The term was entirely apposite. The basic concept was flawed: when an economy experiences a negative shock like Brexit, the last thing you need is tax rises. May's view is correct, Osborne made a misjudgement. That he omitted the IA budget from cuts but tried to frighten pensioners just compounded that misjudgement. Further, he's repeatedly kicked the deficit reduction can down the road when it suited him. On Brexit, all of a sudden that became impossible.
When Osborne is good, he's very, very good. When he's bad, he's just Gordon Brown in a slightly better suit.
I have to disagree with that. Osborne's suits are much better that were Brown's. He can also tie a tie properly.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well.
Gove chaining himself to Osborne looks like a terrible decision. Osborne is toxic.
There were two huge missteps by the Remain campaign (insofar as my family were concerned). One: Little Englander. Two: Punishment budget. Completely alienated my generally wet Tory relatives. Don't think Osborne is a plus for Gove by any stretch of the imagination.
"Punishment budget" is a stupid phrase presumably invented by Leavers. Osborne was just saying that if the economy deteriorates some financial adjustments would have to be made. Common sense really but like so much from the cynics and overpaid TV presenters (WW3) a proper debate was not to be had and no plan was put forward.
Not at all. The term was entirely apposite. The basic concept was flawed: when an economy experiences a negative shock like Brexit, the last thing you need is tax rises. May's view is correct, Osborne made a misjudgement. That he omitted the IA budget from cuts but tried to frighten pensioners just compounded that misjudgement. Further, he's repeatedly kicked the deficit reduction can down the road when it suited him. On Brexit, all of a sudden that became impossible.
When Osborne is good, he's very, very good. When he's bad, he's just Gordon Brown in a slightly better suit.
I have to disagree with that. Osborne's suits are much better that were Brown's. He can also tie a tie properly.
I agree, but it sounded better when I wrote it that way .
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
It's one reason Eagle should get her challenge in. A good performance re Chilcott by Corbyn could easily see him through the summer as waverers will peel away from the rebellion.
Seem to remember someone posting a tweet about how the Tories weren't reflecting House of Cards, they were the basis for house of cards. We are watching old school politics at the moment, and I'm quite enjoying it.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well.
Gove chaining himself to Osborne looks like a terrible decision. Osborne is toxic.
There were two huge missteps by the Remain campaign (insofar as my family were concerned). One: Little Englander. Two: Punishment budget. Completely alienated my generally wet Tory relatives. Don't think Osborne is a plus for Gove by any stretch of the imagination.
"Punishment budget" is a stupid phrase presumably invented by Leavers. Osborne was just saying that if the economy deteriorates some financial adjustments would have to be made. Common sense really but like so much from the cynics and overpaid TV presenters (WW3) a proper debate was not to be had and no plan was put forward.
Not at all. The term was entirely apposite. The basic concept was flawed: when an economy experiences a negative shock like Brexit, the last thing you need is tax rises. May's view is correct, Osborne made a misjudgement. That he omitted the IA budget from cuts but tried to frighten pensioners just compounded that misjudgement. Further, he's repeatedly kicked the deficit reduction can down the road when it suited him. On Brexit, all of a sudden that became impossible.
When Osborne is good, he's very, very good. When he's bad, he's just Gordon Brown in a slightly better suit.
I have to disagree with that. Osborne's suits are much better that were Brown's. He can also tie a tie properly.
As a non-Conservative and someone never likely to vote Conservative, I don't suppose my view on the leadership election matters so much but as people seem eager to comment on the LDs and Labour, I suppose that makes all parties fair game.
So we have May, Gove, Crabb, Leadsom and Fox in this handicap for three year olds of all ages. Johnson's failure to get to the start isn't the end for him - he would be the logical candidate IF the Conservatives lose the next election unless he's made Party Chairman as someone's idea of a joke.
As for the others, May has the form in the book but some questions to answer on some key issues. She's the great hope of the REMAIN camp in that with her it'll be EU-lite via the EEA with a sop or two on the ECHR I expect. To be fair, she's the obvious candidate for a Party desperate to regain some unity after a wretched spell.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well. That said, his leadership would lead to a re-alignment in the REMAIN camp toward a post-Corbyn Labour party or Tim Farron's LDs.
Leadsom is interesting though economically she makes the Sahara look like a verdant oasis - I don't where she is on a range of other issues and how does she distinguish herself from Gove in the days to come ?
Crabb is Continuity Cameron so doomed.
Looking at Cameron and Corbyn yesterday, it struck me as Lame duck meets Dead duck.
Fox, well, there's always room for the novelty candidate in the tradition of Hugh Fraser in 1975 or perhaps Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 though the latter and the cardinal error of winning. Were Fox to prevail, it would be the ultimate revenge against Cameron.
To me, it looks like May vs either Gove or Leadsom in the last two. May would beat Gove among the leadership but may struggle against Leadsom.
For Conservatives, it's important to start from the basis Labour will come to its senses at some point - who do you want facing that nice Dan Jarvis across the Dispatch Box ?
David Miliband is ahead of Dan Jarvis in the betting odds and he's not even an MP.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
It's one reason Eagle should get her challenge in. A good performance re Chilcott by Corbyn could easily see him through the summer as waverers will peel away from the rebellion.
It's funny seeing Corbyn's supporters convinced that this is all bout Chilcot whne 90% of the public could not care less. I mean I'm a sad and lonely politics person (I post here for example) and I keep forgetting about it.
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
Anne mentioned earlier that she was please to see candidates being weighed on their merits rather than on their gender. I'd be equally pleased if we could ignore educational background as well. We could have an Old Etonian Thousand Year Reich for all I care, if the candidates were superb. Ditto if it were Sink Estate Comp.
Totally agree with this, but we're a long, long way from that place atm.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
It's one reason Eagle should get her challenge in. A good performance re Chilcott by Corbyn could easily see him through the summer as waverers will peel away from the rebellion.
It's funny seeing Corbyn's supporters convinced that this is all bout Chilcot whne 90% of the public could not care less. I mean I'm a sad and lonely politics person (I post here for example) and I keep forgetting about it.
Agreed. If it had been a Remain win and everything gone back to normal by now then it would be a big event, but given all the turmoil I doubt it'll get much attention.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit. Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
One of the things I was looking forward to was Chilcott's report ending the on screen career of Blair and Campbell. The bloodshed that resulted from these people is a stain on this country. Sometimes spin kills people. Part of me wants Corbyn in place to clean them out of the Labour party.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
It's one reason Eagle should get her challenge in. A good performance re Chilcott by Corbyn could easily see him through the summer as waverers will peel away from the rebellion.
It's funny seeing Corbyn's supporters convinced that this is all bout Chilcot whne 90% of the public could not care less. I mean I'm a sad and lonely politics person (I post here for example) and I keep forgetting about it.
Agreed. If it had been a Remain win and everything gone back to normal by now then it would be a big event, but given all the turmoil I doubt it'll get much attention.
Until Corbyn, (hanging onto the LOTO position until it's published) then stands at the despatch box and labels Blair a war criminal and calls for his arrest.
As a non-Conservative and someone never likely to vote Conservative, I don't suppose my view on the leadership election matters so much but as people seem eager to comment on the LDs and Labour, I suppose that makes all parties fair game.
So we have May, Gove, Crabb, Leadsom and Fox in this handicap for three year olds of all ages. Johnson's failure to get to the start isn't the end for him - he would be the logical candidate IF the Conservatives lose the next election unless he's made Party Chairman as someone's idea of a joke.
As for the others, May has the form in the book but some questions to answer on some key issues. She's the great hope of the REMAIN camp in that with her it'll be EU-lite via the EEA with a sop or two on the ECHR I expect. To be fair, she's the obvious candidate for a Party desperate to regain some unity after a wretched spell.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well. That said, his leadership would lead to a re-alignment in the REMAIN camp toward a post-Corbyn Labour party or Tim Farron's LDs.
Leadsom is interesting though economically she makes the Sahara look like a verdant oasis - I don't where she is on a range of other issues and how does she distinguish herself from Gove in the days to come ?
Crabb is Continuity Cameron so doomed.
Looking at Cameron and Corbyn yesterday, it struck me as Lame duck meets Dead duck.
Fox, well, there's always room for the novelty candidate in the tradition of Hugh Fraser in 1975 or perhaps Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 though the latter and the cardinal error of winning. Were Fox to prevail, it would be the ultimate revenge against Cameron.
To me, it looks like May vs either Gove or Leadsom in the last two. May would beat Gove among the leadership but may struggle against Leadsom.
For Conservatives, it's important to start from the basis Labour will come to its senses at some point - who do you want facing that nice Dan Jarvis across the Dispatch Box ?
David Miliband is ahead of Dan Jarvis in the betting odds and he's not even an MP.
Any odds on Ruth Davidson as next Labour leader?
I think last week saw "peak Ruth".
We can argue about the effects of Brexit on the economy all the live-long day, but there's absolutely no doubt that the result has left Ruth up shit creek without the proverbial paddle.
Its hard to follow but here are various tweets yesterday from 3 MEPs
Afzal Khan MEP @akhanmep Jun 29 @BBCNormanS majority Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reason I did not.
Claude Moraes MEP @ClaudeMoraesMEP Jun 29 @BBCNormanS A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reasons I did not.
Jude Kirton-DarlingVerified account @Jude_KD Jude Kirton-Darling Retweeted norman smith A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter.I didn't for personal reasons.Just thought should set record straight
Didnt see BBC report the incorrect report
The BBC are still reporting all MEPs
Now at least 4 have said they voted for Corbyn Julie Ward MEP is 4th
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
So what happens if Brexit marches into the depths of nihilism and poverty. When would you stop and say we need to back track, or would you just go on and on and on.
I tell you Brexit is as nihilistic and crazy as the Corbynistas who want to bring in Venezuela governance. You are welcome to each other.
On the LD stance discussed FPT, my understanding is Farron supports a return to the EU via a second referendum. The problem I have with that is only that all the opt-outs, rebates and so on we had will have long gone and we'll join on different terms.
We would likely have to accept the Euro and be a much bigger contributor and I simply don't see a constituency for this (as distinct from returning to the EU under our previous terms which would be much more popular).
Clegg's absurd intervention calling for a GE yesterday did him no favours - we didn't have one when Wilson, Thatcher and Blair all left office during a parliament and nor did we have one when 1940 when Chamberlain was ousted (though there was a lot going on at the time).
May has said there doesn't need to be an election until 2020 - unless the Conservatives schism, that's probably accurate.
Do try to pay attention.
We haven't left yet - remember Article 50? - so no need to rejoin. No change to conditions. No Euro.
As a non-Conservative and someone never likely to vote Conservative, I don't suppose my view on the leadership election matters so much but as people seem eager to comment on the LDs and Labour, I suppose that makes all parties fair game.
So we have May, Gove, Crabb, Leadsom and Fox in this handicap for three year olds of all ages. Johnson's failure to get to the start isn't the end for him - he would be the logical candidate IF the Conservatives lose the next election unless he's made Party Chairman as someone's idea of a joke.
As for the others, May has the form in the book but some questions to answer on some key issues. She's the great hope of the REMAIN camp in that with her it'll be EU-lite via the EEA with a sop or two on the ECHR I expect. To be fair, she's the obvious candidate for a Party desperate to regain some unity after a wretched spell.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well. That said, his leadership would lead to a re-alignment in the REMAIN camp toward a post-Corbyn Labour party or Tim Farron's LDs.
Leadsom is interesting though economically she makes the Sahara look like a verdant oasis - I don't where she is on a range of other issues and how does she distinguish herself from Gove in the days to come ?
Crabb is Continuity Cameron so doomed.
Looking at Cameron and Corbyn yesterday, it struck me as Lame duck meets Dead duck.
Fox, well, there's always room for the novelty candidate in the tradition of Hugh Fraser in 1975 or perhaps Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 though the latter and the cardinal error of winning. Were Fox to prevail, it would be the ultimate revenge against Cameron.
To me, it looks like May vs either Gove or Leadsom in the last two. May would beat Gove among the leadership but may struggle against Leadsom.
For Conservatives, it's important to start from the basis Labour will come to its senses at some point - who do you want facing that nice Dan Jarvis across the Dispatch Box ?
David Miliband is ahead of Dan Jarvis in the betting odds and he's not even an MP.
Any odds on Ruth Davidson as next Labour leader?
I think last week saw "peak Ruth".
We can argue about the effects of Brexit on the economy all the live-long day, but there's absolutely no doubt that the result has left Ruth up shit creek without the proverbial paddle.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
@LiamMcIlvanney: As expected, the message to Scotland from EU is: We're sympathetic, but can only have meaningful talks when you are independent. #indyref2
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
@LiamMcIlvanney: As expected, the message to Scotland from EU is: We're sympathetic, but can only have meaningful talks when you are independent. #indyref2
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
So what happens if Brexit marches into the depths of nihilism and poverty. When would you stop and say we need to back track, or would you just go on and on and on.
I tell you Brexit is as nihilistic and crazy as the Corbynistas who want to bring in Venezuela governance. You are welcome to each other.
May will probably be PM, there will be BREXIT but an EEA/EFTA deal with the single market and free movement of some form
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
Not Michael Gove.
Just noticed somebody's edited his Wikipedia entry to say "Michael backstabber Gove..."
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
Not Michael Gove.
Just noticed somebody's edited his Wikipedia entry to say "Michael backstabber Gove..."
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
I've got a general position that if y'all haven't read the IFS & IMF reports, there's no basis for a conversation. The worst I've seen in the models is a reduction in long term trend growth compared to Bremain. But...models. Predictions are hard, especially about the future etc.
I have said plenty of times that there's ample scope for us to fuck up Brexit execution. It's out of voters' hands now.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
I agree (no surprise). What they are trying to do is hoover up the 48%. The problem is that only a minority of the 48% are solid europhiles (probably 10/48) and of those they have Lab and Con loyalties. The LDs current circa 8% also probably only has 5/8 for REMAIN and 3/8 for LEAVE. So it may be counter productive to gain a few % of the 10/48 and end up not much more ahead. Also in the process of doing it they risk losing REMAIN democrats who get upset at trying to over turn the stated views of the voters - it is just not British! All numbers approximate but the scale is about right.
I agree (more surprisingly). It's a valid argument to say we should consider the question once again after 5 or 10 years - the fact is we would have to rejoin on very different terms to those on which we left though if LEAVE is the disaster some claim, those terms might look very reasonable.
I consider myself an internationalist and there is a constituency that considers leaving the EU the most internationalist thing we could have done and I get that. The possibility of re-engaging with the Far East, Australasia and Latin America is compelling. As a liberal, I like being out there in the world, trading collaborating and co-operating on regional and global problems.
It's enticing and exciting to be away from the European backwater but it poses some challenges relating to our educational, economic and political mindsets.
Agree entirely about Brexit being the internationalist view. As I said during the campaign EU membership ties us to a declining backwater representing 7% of the world's population. The future lies with the other 93%.
I do think that the Europhiles are clinging to the idea that somehow membership of the EU will protect us from the way the world is changing. It won't' It will just mean we are dragged along rather than embracing the change. Leaving makes it possible for us to take part fully in those changes, accepting we are very unlikely ever to lead them again in any of our lifetimes but at least playing our part and reaping some of the benefits.
Not paying much attention, but what little I've read the debate in Scotland seems to be entirely about whether Sturgeon can find a way to justify calling another referendum. The possibility that she might not win that referendum doesn't seem to be a consideration.
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
No, Gove was a student at Robert Gordon as a scholarship boy.
@JohnO the Dark Knight Rises features a character called Bane, who shouts 'Take control' just before committing some mad act of terrorism or extortion. I was suggesting that Leadsom's use of the cry may have been inspired by it, although I was probably harsh!
Ruth just improved her party's fortunes for the first time in 30 years on the back of a single platform - stand up for the Union. It has been totally undermined and her position is holed below the waterline.
If the EU tells Scotland it needs to be Independent to negotiate, then that is only good for Nicola. It means Independence is no longer a choice but a requirement. A requirement. It is also one likely to be supported with a heavy Yes vote.
There is no scenario where Brexit is good for Ruth. And in all scenarios Brexit is good for Nicola.
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
If he does impose a deselection process he is going to have a turnover of MP's that would make Putin blush, where is he going to find these sacrificial lambs? And if he gets his followers to do it, how long before one of them says something massively stupid, or just plain acts like Ken?
Well quite, and that's even if their CLPs would deselect rebels, which is far from certain. In many cases local MPs, while to the right of their CLPs, are hardworking and appreciated.
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
@tombradby: I wonder if Boris will, one way or another, end up on Top Gear...
Boris is only 52. If May becomes PM he could still achieve the top job with several years of solid Cabinet experience behind him.
No, it's over for Boris. And it's all over for the Etononians leading the Tory Party as well, I think. After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO. In the end these posh boys are just too nasty...
All 5 Leadership contenders came from the state sector for their secondary education AFAIK.
No, Gove was a student at Robert Gordon as a scholarship boy.
@JohnO the Dark Knight Rises features a character called Bane, who shouts 'Take control' just before committing some mad act of terrorism or extortion. I was suggesting that Leadsom's use of the cry may have been inspired by it, although I was probably harsh!
Bane also said:
"Peace has cost you your strength. Victory has defeated you!"
Hard to say which is the more ridiculous out of Conservative and Labour right now, quite enjoyable to watch though. What awful people they all are.
I find it hard to believe I'd ever vote Conservative again, if Leadsom was leader I'd at least consider it.
Not much to admire in any of the political shenanigans, but one thing I do like: that it's possible the Conservatives may be putting 2 women forward for the members' vote and nobody is talking about anything other than their suitability for the job.
No big deal, and that's really important - a big step forward.
With a bit of luck the USA might get a formidable lady from Massachusetts as a running mate for Hillary Clinton---Elizabeth Warren :
Comments
Some nutters developed an algorithm that identifies people and puts brackets so other nutters could find them, so people put brackets to confuse the algorithm AFAIK
http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/05/people-are-putting-echoes-around-their-names-on-twitter-heres-why-5925002/
I'm cautiously optimistic a new month starts tomorrow and the Eclipse at Sandown will be won by a horse with a jockey on it. Beyond that, I'm guessing.
Someone (I'm looking at YOU, @rcs1000) should put the last week's PB articles and comments on to a DVD and bury it is some time capsule for future historians to find, research, and wonder at.
It's become an I Am Spartacus thing now to stop the method being effective
Thanks.
This is starting to unravel at least 2 now say they did not.
Some claim it was a small majority but they all went along!!
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/285260-clintons-9-most-likely-vp-picks
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
I consider myself an internationalist and there is a constituency that considers leaving the EU the most internationalist thing we could have done and I get that. The possibility of re-engaging with the Far East, Australasia and Latin America is compelling. As a liberal, I like being out there in the world, trading collaborating and co-operating on regional and global problems.
It's enticing and exciting to be away from the European backwater but it poses some challenges relating to our educational, economic and political mindsets.
Clinton 44 Trump 40
Clinton 37 Trump 36 Johnson 9 Stein 5
http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-holds-ground-against-clinton-ties-her-in-a-four-way-matchup/
PPP
Clinton 48 Trump 44
Clinton 45 Trump 41 Johnson 5 Stein 2
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_63016.pdf
Now imagine you have a large membership, who hate anything to the right of Ernest Bevan and will deselect on a whim; a party of Burgon's who will be a car crash on tv every day.
Hadn't the heart to pick mine up when Labour candidates canvassed in May 2015 and 2016.
Even if there's no GE, the EU extraction is clearly going to drag on for ages and be still ongoing when we next vote. Hence it will figure as a big issue in the campaign. UKIP will speak for those that want nothing to do with the EU, the Tories will be heading for some sort of EEA approach, the LibDems speak for those that want to rejoin, leaving Labour the party with the identity problem, trapped between the pro-EU views of its Waitrose shopping London supporters and the anti-EU wwc.
I wonder if Corbyn just wants to hang on till 6 July, and use the Chilcott report for this benefit while still leader.
Afzal Khan MEP @akhanmep Jun 29
@BBCNormanS majority Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reason I did not.
Claude Moraes MEP @ClaudeMoraesMEP Jun 29
@BBCNormanS A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter. For personal reasons I did not.
Jude Kirton-DarlingVerified account
@Jude_KD Jude Kirton-Darling Retweeted norman smith
A majority of Labour MEPs agreed to the letter.I didn't for personal reasons.Just thought should set record straight
Didnt see BBC report the incorrect report
After May/Leadsom they'll skip a generation and look for someone from more "modest" roots, IMO.
.
We would need a new clean air act to cope with the farting commie.
When Osborne is good, he's very, very good. When he's bad, he's just Gordon Brown in a slightly better suit.
I really hope he convention bounce happens for him so I an cash out.
Kevin Maguire reckons most of the entryists are joining to stop Corbyn being re-elected.
Seriously.
We are watching old school politics at the moment, and I'm quite enjoying it.
Strange when did she resign?
Might get some attention then?
Now at least 4 have said they voted for Corbyn Julie Ward MEP is 4th
I tell you Brexit is as nihilistic and crazy as the Corbynistas who want to bring in Venezuela governance. You are welcome to each other.
We haven't left yet - remember Article 50? - so no need to rejoin. No change to conditions. No Euro.
@LiamMcIlvanney: As expected, the message to Scotland from EU is: We're sympathetic, but can only have meaningful talks when you are independent. #indyref2
I have said plenty of times that there's ample scope for us to fuck up Brexit execution. It's out of voters' hands now.
I see you are still in the denial stage.
I do think that the Europhiles are clinging to the idea that somehow membership of the EU will protect us from the way the world is changing. It won't' It will just mean we are dragged along rather than embracing the change. Leaving makes it possible for us to take part fully in those changes, accepting we are very unlikely ever to lead them again in any of our lifetimes but at least playing our part and reaping some of the benefits.
@JohnO the Dark Knight Rises features a character called Bane, who shouts 'Take control' just before committing some mad act of terrorism or extortion. I was suggesting that Leadsom's use of the cry may have been inspired by it, although I was probably harsh!
If the EU tells Scotland it needs to be Independent to negotiate, then that is only good for Nicola. It means Independence is no longer a choice but a requirement. A requirement. It is also one likely to be supported with a heavy Yes vote.
There is no scenario where Brexit is good for Ruth. And in all scenarios Brexit is good for Nicola.
Surely he knows the game is up?
"Peace has cost you your strength. Victory has defeated you!"
Still not entirely convinced Nicola can sell that