politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of bre
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Was at an meeting of assorted luminaries and senior wise-guys earlier. The general view seemed to be that Article 50 will never be invoked. A bizarre consensus but there we are.0
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Arf!Scrapheap_as_was said:
if only there were some templates to use...numbertwelve said:
There's a strong rumour he might be writing his resignation letter...MarqueeMark said:
Well he must be busy doing SOMETHING....Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nope... I'm hearing Charlie Falconer is in the frame for doing the dirty.MarqueeMark said:
MI5, I guess....alex. said:BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???
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Ha ha haScrapheap_as_was said:
if only there were some templates to use...numbertwelve said:
There's a strong rumour he might be writing his resignation letter...MarqueeMark said:
Well he must be busy doing SOMETHING....Scrapheap_as_was said:
Nope... I'm hearing Charlie Falconer is in the frame for doing the dirty.MarqueeMark said:
MI5, I guess....alex. said:BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???
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It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
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Jeeeeez. News at Ten. The top of the Labour Party look more gruesome than the bloody Munsters.
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My CLP is always seething. That's what CLPs do. :-)bigjohnowls said:
I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to winJonathan said:
Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.JohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.
Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster
4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.
The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote
Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.
What does your CLP think.
Mine is seething
(won't bother to bore PB with restating the argument, I fear we are unlikely to agree)0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
Fatties for FREEDOM:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/748255889916854272
So we have been dragged out of the EU by an army of the corpulent? Couldn't we just have air dropped free Mars Bars on them instead?0 -
If we are going to have a contest, I am thoroughly perplexed why it has to be someone with the charisma of wet lettuce !bigjohnowls said:
I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to winJonathan said:
Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.JohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.
Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster
4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.
The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote
Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.
What does your CLP think.
Mine is seething
Yvette, please come forward.0 -
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If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!John_M said:
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.0 -
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PBers 4 May rejoice!0
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Most Labour voters backed Remain. There's a lot of focus on the sizeable minority that didn't but most did.Danny565 said:
Most of them just showed how in touch they were with those 9m voters by enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign.MarqueeMark said:0 -
What kind of a membership list is that ?Charles said:
I'm not sure if I'm a member or not... they send me ballots but I don't remember paying my dues for agesJohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
And Marquee Mark I think too
(Equally, I've donated several lifetimes worth of annual dues in the past)0 -
My point was not about joining EFTA. Once we are in EFTA, and a piece of EU legislation crops up that one of the four doesn't like, it looks like they could veto its incorporation into the EEA Agreement. If it is not in the EEA Agreement (which as you know so well, specifically deals with those EEA/EFTA states), then it is not included in the single market (as determined by...the EEA Agreement).Richard_Tyndall said:
I honestly don't now know what you are going on about. You are quoting bits of what I have said back at me as if it proves some point but what that point is I have no idea. Your posts on this over the last few hours have become rather incoherent.TOPPING said:Here's an expert on the matter:
So much time studying the agreement..so little understanding.
Actually you do of course understand it as you gave me the example of Norway using the veto. It's just that you are in denial about it. You should try to lose the blog/chatroom mentality where you insult people and refuse to accept a point. It does you no favours.
EFTA members (4 of them not 3) can block our joining EFTA. If we do not join EFTA we do not remain in the EEA. Bad news.
However it appears that they are very keen for us to join EFTA so not bad news.
Once we are in EFTA we retain our place in the EEA. Good news.
Once in the EEA as an EFTA member rather than an EU member we are only subject to around 9% of the total EU legislative burden. Good news.
We cannot impose any new regulation on fellow EFTA members and they cannot impose it on us. Good news.
This does not mean we cannot adopt legislation unilaterally if we choose to do so although I don't really see any reason why we would do that. Good news.
If there is any move to increase the scope of the EEA agreement to cover new areas we can veto it - Very good news.
If there is any new legislation covered by the EEA agreement that we feel is fundamentally against our interests then we can also veto that - good news.
Not really seeing a downside here Topping.
Max said, and Charles said you said (AIUI) that if an EEA/EFTA member decides it doesn't want to incorporate a piece of EU legislation into the EEA Agreement, then another EEA/EFTA member can unilaterally decide to adopt that piece of EU legislation.
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?0 -
Told you buggers to keep on laying Boris0
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If you want Liz you really should vote Tory.Jobabob said:
Who would still be far, far, far better than Corbyn. With the possible exception of John McDonnell, Corbyn is the LEAST electable Labour MP in the Commons.bigjohnowls said:
These guys really cannot inspire confidence surely have the nerve to have no confidence in the leader at a time like this and have no clue what to do next.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Spoken to several Labour MPs. Told very strong feeling in PLP that no one should declare tomorrow. Confirmed Owen Smith taking soundings.
I know these people are totally fking useless but some of us have MONEY ON THIS FFS!
Completely incompetent.
Its not as though Lab has changed the system and somehow wrong footed them.
Incompetent fools cant think beyond ABC but then realise nobodys called that
We will end up with Liz Kendall as the challenger at this rate.
WAKE UP
P.S. Has Nick declared whether he thinks Corbyn should stay or go yet? We've been waiting longer for him than Charlie bloody Falconer
Same Policies without the fickkness and both endorsed by The Sun0 -
Transylvania is not so bad. One of my Romanian colleagues sent me this:MarqueeMark said:Jeeeeez. News at Ten. The top of the Labour Party look more gruesome than the bloody Munsters.
http://www.transylvaniabeyond.com/
Cluj does look rather better than Boston or Bridgend on a wet day!0 -
It certainly is a bit of a gift... actually it's not that far behind the Liam Byrne note about there being no money left...SeanT said:That astonishing Johnson letter, and the frothing Corbynite fury beneath this tweet, is Labour's death warrant
https://twitter.com/AidanKerrPol/status/7482490043838013440 -
It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Really no excuse either - if the typically non-voting working class got out to vote in high numbers, then no reason the youth vote shouldn't have been higher. As a millennial remainer I feel more let down by my own peer group than by pensioners!John_M said:
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
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Are we back the believing the polls already? It's like Stockholm syndrome.0
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Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the partyRobD said:0 -
Noooooooookle4 said:
It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.TheScreamingEagles said:
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When they give you the result you want, yesFrancisUrquhart said:Are we back the believing the polls already? It's like Stockholm syndrome.
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I can't warm to Crabb. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.0
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Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)0
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His disappearing act ain't exactly doing him any favours either.SeanT said:I refer honourable pb-ers to my prediction, 3 days ago, that May was bound to win
Because we all want a mummy right now
And because Boris will own the Brexit recession0 -
For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the partyRobD said:0 -
May sure has a large lead way out in advance of the vote. Reminds of a recent referendum.0
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But he's one of us.stjohn said:I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.
He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.0 -
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Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?0
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Any Eagle qualities that were missed in September?Jonathan said:
My CLP is always seething. That's what CLPs do. :-)bigjohnowls said:
I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to winJonathan said:
Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.JohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.
Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster
4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.
The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote
Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.
What does your CLP think.
Mine is seething
(won't bother to bore PB with restating the argument, I fear we are unlikely to agree)0 -
A hereditary one?surbiton said:
What kind of a membership list is that ?Charles said:
I'm not sure if I'm a member or not... they send me ballots but I don't remember paying my dues for agesJohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
And Marquee Mark I think too
(Equally, I've donated several lifetimes worth of annual dues in the past)0 -
@tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG0
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I saidParistonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
55 Leave,
65 Remain,
75 Too close to all
85 Remain
so I feel pretty good about my prediction.0 -
You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Tooting CLP GM: 82 voted in favour of no confidence in Corbyn motion with 58 against.
Putney CLP and Perth & Kinross CLP passed a similar motion. Holborn & St Pancrass rejected a confidence in JC motion.
Sevenoaks, Calder Valley, Sheffield Hallam (but it was close), Totnes, Kensington CLPs GC passed a motion of confidence in Corbyn.
Orpington CLP GC: 27 to 27...0 -
Trump at Bangor, Maine (about an hour ago, starts at 22m)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rzMnxQagY00 -
Is she good at speeches? I was impressed by her facing down the police federataion while back, but that might not be the right tone.RobD said:Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)
Though if SeanT is right and we want 'mummy' right now, maybe May should put out posters copying Merkel making her comforting hand gesture thing, the Merkel diamond - 'Britain is safe in May's hands'0 -
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.TOPPING said:
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?0 -
Yesmurali_s said:Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
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@jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75MarqueeMark said:You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
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The Merkel-Raute (Merkel Rhombus, lol)kle4 said:
Is she good at speeches? I was impressed by her facing down the police federataion while back, but that might not be the right tone.RobD said:Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)
Though if SeanT is right and we want 'mummy' right now, maybe May should put out posters copying Merkel making her comforting hand gesture thing, the Merkel diamond - 'Britain is safe in May's hands'0 -
Some good turnouts in Berkshire.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
Wokingham 80%, W.Berkshire 80%, Bracknell 76%, Reading 72%
http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-reading-wokingham-11518563
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Mr Elliot of the Vote Leave team said they had 30,000 activists, and they wanted to be involved. Not what I saw in my patch, but who knows.
https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu0 -
She is very competent.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She sent it to a third party by mistakePlatoSaid said:
I assumed it was Team Gove adding some pressureMarqueeMark said:
MI5, I guess....alex. said:BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???
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PBers 4 May rejoice even moreScott_P said:
@jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75MarqueeMark said:You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
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Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mineJohn_M said:
For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the partyRobD said:0 -
I decided to vote for whoever JRM nominated - so I'm for Boris.JohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
And Marquee Mark I think too
But to be honest, provided its not Crabb I'll be happy.0 -
But they thought that the "Remain" campaign was guaranteed to succeed. That is how bad their political judgement is. I remember reading the articles about a year ago - people like Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna thought that staying in the EU was one of the main principles of the "centre ground", and that Labour enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign would be a good move for Labour and show how in touch they were with mainstream voters.Wanderer said:
Most Labour voters backed Remain. There's a lot of focus on the sizeable minority that didn't but most did.Danny565 said:
Most of them just showed how in touch they were with those 9m voters by enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign.MarqueeMark said:
Clearly, it turned out supporting the EU was nowhere near as "centre ground" or "mainstream" as they thought. So why should I trust that they know how to win an election and how to appeal to the General Electorate, when they read the General Electorate so catastrophically badly on the EU???0 -
We know it's going to be between Boris and Theresa... All these other non entities like Crabb and Fox are doing is holding up the UK getting a new Prime Minister at a time of crisis. They should all stand aside tomorrow, let Boris and Theresa go through and then we could have a new PM/Chancellor by the end of July.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They just ring up all the Ant fans (of ant & Dec fame), but they stay well clear of those who say Dec is their favourite as they are all communists...that is according to the yougov panel.MarqueeMark said:
You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).kle4 said:
If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!John_M said:
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.0 -
Just when you think your (political) day can't get any worse someone posts a picture of that arsehole.RodCrosby said:Trump at Bangor, Maine (about an hour ago, starts at 22m)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rzMnxQagY0
Definitely time to turn off politics for a couple of months/years/decades. Tories should back May if they are sane, Boris if they want some more fun.
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Well, at least it's not another 'I like and respect you but you are not the man for the party to help people' letter.Scott_P said:@jreedmp: My letter to @jeremycorbyn tonight. https://t.co/QHYkhs7sx0
I wonder how many of these Corbyn's actually read? After the 10th 'You're a bit crap' letter, I'd probably stop.
Opening with how David Cameron spoke for most Labour Mps and voters may have been an odd choice. Reed also not about to let McDonnel fill the void either it seems.0 -
Interesting thanks for thatAndreaParma_82 said:Tooting CLP GM: 82 voted in favour of no confidence in Corbyn motion with 58 against.
Putney CLP and Perth & Kinross CLP passed a similar motion. Holborn & St Pancrass rejected a confidence in JC motion.
Sevenoaks, Calder Valley, Sheffield Hallam (but it was close), Totnes, Kensington CLPs GC passed a motion of confidence in Corbyn.
Orpington CLP GC: 27 to 27...0 -
I might give him a second look!TheScreamingEagles said:
But he's one of us.stjohn said:I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.
He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.0 -
Im not but my parents areJohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
And Marquee Mark I think too
Currently both would support May but only as a Stop Boris candidate
I think the problem for Boris is he is a Marmite candidate and unless it is Liam Fox I am struggling to see who he will beat in a head to head amongst the Party supporters
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What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.0
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It's the long-term favourite that loses. If you become favourite during the race that's survivable. Eg, Cameron.kle4 said:
It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Oct 1 to dec 31st looks value at 3/1. I have put a few quid on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yesmurali_s said:Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
For Scotland, they just look in here.0 -
Is there a chance Boris doesn't make the ballot? He seems to be well down on the nominations he needs to ensure it.RepublicanTory said:
Im not but my parents areJohnO said:Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?
Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.
And Marquee Mark I think too
Currently both would support May but only as a Stop Boris candidate
I think the problem for Boris is he is a Marmite candidate and unless it is Liam Fox I am struggling to see who he will beat in a head to head amongst the Party supporters0 -
I have to say that Alan Johnson'sw performance in the Brexit campaign was utterly appalling. I didn't even know he was in charge of Labour remain.
Shameful to go after Corbyn on this given the glass house he is in .0 -
That's great to hear. I do fear things are going to get worse before they get better, but as Mr Schauble puts it, we're a leading country. We'll get to a good place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mineJohn_M said:
For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the partyRobD said:
I'm a long-standing May fan, Boris's high falutin' fancy big-city talk don't cut no ice down here in the boonies.0 -
I'm assuming some whizz kid has created a Labour resignation letter generator by nowkle4 said:
Well, at least it's not another 'I like and respect you but you are not the man for the party to help people' letter.Scott_P said:@jreedmp: My letter to @jeremycorbyn tonight. https://t.co/QHYkhs7sx0
I wonder how many of these Corbyn's actually read? After the 10th 'You're a bit crap' letter, I'd probably stop.
Opening with how David Cameron spoke for most Labour Mps and voters may have been an odd choice. Reed also not about to let McDonnel fill the void either it seems.0 -
Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?Charles said:
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.TOPPING said:
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.0 -
Alan Johnson has always been an useless campaigner.
He even managed to lose that deputy leadership contest to Harman.Pulpstar said:I have to say that Alan Johnson'sw performance in the Brexit campaign was utterly appalling. I didn't even know he was in charge of Labour remain.
Shameful to go after Corbyn on this given the glass house he is in .0 -
I was only kidding - I hope May wins. Maybe she would be a bad leader, I don't know, but if she's managed to hide that she would be a bad leader after this long as a Cabinet Minister, she'll probably be ok for a time. Boris meanwhile would have to have been hiding that he would be a good leader all this time.Wanderer said:
It's the long-term favourite that loses. If you become favourite during the race that's survivable. Eg, Cameron.kle4 said:
It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
More likely than the July - Sept favourite imo.foxinsoxuk said:
Oct 1 to dec 31st looks value at 3/1. I have put a few quid on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yesmurali_s said:Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Because, as ever with these Labour coups, the all-too-easy feeling of "[current incumbent] is doing crap" gets overridden when people start asking "but who exactly would do better?"rottenborough said:What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.
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Does anyone have the numbers from The Times poll? Is Ms Leadsom in there?John_M said:
That's great to hear. I do fear things are going to get worse before they get better, but as Mr Schauble puts it, we're a leading country. We'll get to a good place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mineJohn_M said:
For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the partyRobD said:
I'm a long-standing May fan, Boris's high falutin' fancy big-city talk don't cut no ice down here in the boonies.
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Blimey, Crabb does nearly as well against May in finals, as Boris.SeanT said:
Yes, obviously.TheScreamingEagles said:
If REMAIN had narrowly won. Boris would be heading for Number 10, as a healer, in a year or two. That was his calculation.
But LEAVE narrowly won, so it has to be a tepid REMAINIAC to keep the party together.0 -
Please stick around, we don't have many youngsters on the site. While I'm not precisely sure of the demographic split, it feels pretty middle aged/old.Paristonda said:
We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).kle4 said:
If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!John_M said:
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.0 -
Both the Boris and May camps have the same 2 aims right now;GIN1138 said:
We know it's going to be between Boris and Theresa... All these other non entities like Crabb and Fox are doing is holding up the UK getting a new Prime Minister at a time of crisis. They should all stand aside tomorrow, let Boris and Theresa go through and then we could have a new PM/Chancellor by the end of July.TheScreamingEagles said:
Firstly, to get onto the ballot of the party members. Secondly, to have Crabb as their opponent on the ballot of the party members.0 -
Is every one talking BOLLOCKS on PB?SeanT said:
Yes, obviously.TheScreamingEagles said:
If REMAIN had narrowly won. Boris would be heading for Number 10, as a healer, in a year or two. That was his calculation.
But LEAVE narrowly won, so it has to be a tepid REMAINIAC to keep the party together.0 -
I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.rottenborough said:What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.
Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?
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A woman who went missing during the referendum, V a man who went missing post referendum.0
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Fortunately neither does the Tory party membership.weejonnie said:
For once having a panel that is disproportionately politically engaged works in their favour.0 -
What happened to the much hyped return of banana man. I presume he was just back on business or visiting family (obviously not Ed).0
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Thanks. I'll still put a big hmmmmm.... against "representative sample".Scott_P said:
@jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75MarqueeMark said:You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
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SkyBet have the beloweek said:
Before June 30 2016 100/1
July 1 to September 30 2016 5/2
October 1 to December 31 2016 3/1
January 1 to March 31 2017 4/1
April 1 to June 30 2017 4/1
July 1 to September 30 2017 20/1
October 1 to December 31 2017 33/1
2018 or later, or not at all 3/1
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I did indeed need to Google him, although the name sounded vaguely familiar.tyson said:
I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.rottenborough said:What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.
Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?
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Have faith.FrancisUrquhart said:What happened to the much hyped return of banana man. I presume he was just back on business or visiting family (obviously not Ed).
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Yes. It's one of those things where I just don't know how to fix the problem, as I don't understand it. I get not caring about politics, or politicians, of widespread apathy, but even that as an excuse only extends so far. I know 60 year olds who've never voted, voted in the referendum, but insist they won't ever vote again as they won't vote for a politicians, why can't the young be like that at least? More of them at any rate - honestly, I'm not even 30 andParistonda said:
We can if we voted!kle4 said:
If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!John_M said:
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fixParistonda said:
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.John_M said:
18-24 was 36.4%.IanB2 said:
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.nunu said:
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.Paristonda said:slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
the young demographic are turning me into an old grouch.
Or that might be spending time on PB surrounded by octogenarians 0 -
I quite like him, and think he could be a potential good future leader, but I've not seen anywhere near enough to prove it yet. And I'm not going to take a punt on someone who might well be worse than Corbyn until they've proven themselves.tyson said:
I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.rottenborough said:What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.
Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?0 -
I quite liked him, until I realised he's a bible thumper. He may as well join ISIS, believing in that lot of old bollox.stjohn said:
I might give him a second look!TheScreamingEagles said:
But he's one of us.stjohn said:I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.
He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.
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