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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of bre

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  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Was at an meeting of assorted luminaries and senior wise-guys earlier. The general view seemed to be that Article 50 will never be invoked. A bizarre consensus but there we are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    alex. said:

    BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???

    MI5, I guess....
    Nope... I'm hearing Charlie Falconer is in the frame for doing the dirty.
    Well he must be busy doing SOMETHING....
    There's a strong rumour he might be writing his resignation letter...
    if only there were some templates to use...
    Arf!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    alex. said:

    BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???

    MI5, I guess....
    Nope... I'm hearing Charlie Falconer is in the frame for doing the dirty.
    Well he must be busy doing SOMETHING....
    There's a strong rumour he might be writing his resignation letter...
    if only there were some templates to use...
    Ha ha ha :)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Jobabob said:

    Was at an meeting of assorted luminaries and senior wise-guys earlier. The general view seemed to be that Article 50 will never be invoked. A bizarre consensus but there we are.

    In denial I fear.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Jeeeeez. News at Ten. The top of the Labour Party look more gruesome than the bloody Munsters.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.
    I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to win

    Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.

    Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster

    4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.

    The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote

    Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.

    What does your CLP think.

    Mine is seething
    My CLP is always seething. That's what CLPs do. :-)

    (won't bother to bore PB with restating the argument, I fear we are unlikely to agree)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    So we have been dragged out of the EU by an army of the corpulent? Couldn't we just have air dropped free Mars Bars on them instead?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.
    I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to win

    Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.

    Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster

    4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.

    The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote

    Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.

    What does your CLP think.

    Mine is seething
    If we are going to have a contest, I am thoroughly perplexed why it has to be someone with the charisma of wet lettuce !

    Yvette, please come forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    PBers 4 May rejoice!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    He has a point. Why should he listen to those elected by 9,347,324?
    Most of them just showed how in touch they were with those 9m voters by enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign.
    Most Labour voters backed Remain. There's a lot of focus on the sizeable minority that didn't but most did.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    And Marquee Mark I think too

    I'm not sure if I'm a member or not... they send me ballots but I don't remember paying my dues for ages :)

    (Equally, I've donated several lifetimes worth of annual dues in the past)
    What kind of a membership list is that ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    TOPPING said:

    Here's an expert on the matter:

    So much time studying the agreement..so little understanding.

    Actually you do of course understand it as you gave me the example of Norway using the veto. It's just that you are in denial about it. You should try to lose the blog/chatroom mentality where you insult people and refuse to accept a point. It does you no favours.

    I honestly don't now know what you are going on about. You are quoting bits of what I have said back at me as if it proves some point but what that point is I have no idea. Your posts on this over the last few hours have become rather incoherent.

    EFTA members (4 of them not 3) can block our joining EFTA. If we do not join EFTA we do not remain in the EEA. Bad news.

    However it appears that they are very keen for us to join EFTA so not bad news.

    Once we are in EFTA we retain our place in the EEA. Good news.

    Once in the EEA as an EFTA member rather than an EU member we are only subject to around 9% of the total EU legislative burden. Good news.

    We cannot impose any new regulation on fellow EFTA members and they cannot impose it on us. Good news.

    This does not mean we cannot adopt legislation unilaterally if we choose to do so although I don't really see any reason why we would do that. Good news.

    If there is any move to increase the scope of the EEA agreement to cover new areas we can veto it - Very good news.

    If there is any new legislation covered by the EEA agreement that we feel is fundamentally against our interests then we can also veto that - good news.

    Not really seeing a downside here Topping.
    My point was not about joining EFTA. Once we are in EFTA, and a piece of EU legislation crops up that one of the four doesn't like, it looks like they could veto its incorporation into the EEA Agreement. If it is not in the EEA Agreement (which as you know so well, specifically deals with those EEA/EFTA states), then it is not included in the single market (as determined by...the EEA Agreement).

    Max said, and Charles said you said (AIUI) that if an EEA/EFTA member decides it doesn't want to incorporate a piece of EU legislation into the EEA Agreement, then another EEA/EFTA member can unilaterally decide to adopt that piece of EU legislation.

    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Told you buggers to keep on laying Boris
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Spoken to several Labour MPs. Told very strong feeling in PLP that no one should declare tomorrow. Confirmed Owen Smith taking soundings.

    I know these people are totally fking useless but some of us have MONEY ON THIS FFS!

    These guys really cannot inspire confidence surely have the nerve to have no confidence in the leader at a time like this and have no clue what to do next.

    Completely incompetent.

    Its not as though Lab has changed the system and somehow wrong footed them.

    Incompetent fools cant think beyond ABC but then realise nobodys called that

    We will end up with Liz Kendall as the challenger at this rate.
    Who would still be far, far, far better than Corbyn. With the possible exception of John McDonnell, Corbyn is the LEAST electable Labour MP in the Commons.

    WAKE UP

    P.S. Has Nick declared whether he thinks Corbyn should stay or go yet? We've been waiting longer for him than Charlie bloody Falconer
    If you want Liz you really should vote Tory.

    Same Policies without the fickkness and both endorsed by The Sun
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jeeeeez. News at Ten. The top of the Labour Party look more gruesome than the bloody Munsters.

    Transylvania is not so bad. One of my Romanian colleagues sent me this:

    http://www.transylvaniabeyond.com/

    Cluj does look rather better than Boston or Bridgend on a wet day!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    That astonishing Johnson letter, and the frothing Corbynite fury beneath this tweet, is Labour's death warrant

    https://twitter.com/AidanKerrPol/status/748249004383801344

    It certainly is a bit of a gift... actually it's not that far behind the Liam Byrne note about there being no money left...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    Really no excuse either - if the typically non-voting working class got out to vote in high numbers, then no reason the youth vote shouldn't have been higher. As a millennial remainer I feel more let down by my own peer group than by pensioners!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Are we back the believing the polls already? It's like Stockholm syndrome.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    RobD said:
    Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the party
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    kle4 said:

    It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.
    Nooooooooo :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Are we back the believing the polls already? It's like Stockholm syndrome.

    When they give you the result you want, yes :D:p
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,856
    edited June 2016
    I can't warm to Crabb. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    SeanT said:

    I refer honourable pb-ers to my prediction, 3 days ago, that May was bound to win

    Because we all want a mummy right now

    And because Boris will own the Brexit recession

    His disappearing act ain't exactly doing him any favours either.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    RobD said:
    Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the party
    For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    May sure has a large lead way out in advance of the vote. Reminds of a recent referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    stjohn said:

    I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.

    But he's one of us.

    He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    Nick Palmer and BigJohnOwls are clearly pulling for the Tories at the moment. You should give them a vote.
    I think Angela Eagle would be hopeless. The Tories must be praying for her to win

    Perhaps you could list her qualities apart from being able to turn on the waterworks at will.

    Why do you think she is the anything other than a disaster

    4TH OUT OF 5 for Deputy last time suddenly your favoured candidate.

    The PLP sparked a crisis then wanted to impose Jarvis without a vote

    Insulting to any Democratic Socialist IMO.

    What does your CLP think.

    Mine is seething
    My CLP is always seething. That's what CLPs do. :-)

    (won't bother to bore PB with restating the argument, I fear we are unlikely to agree)
    Any Eagle qualities that were missed in September?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    And Marquee Mark I think too

    I'm not sure if I'm a member or not... they send me ballots but I don't remember paying my dues for ages :)

    (Equally, I've donated several lifetimes worth of annual dues in the past)
    What kind of a membership list is that ?
    A hereditary one?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    I said
    55 Leave,
    65 Remain,
    75 Too close to all
    85 Remain

    so I feel pretty good about my prediction.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2016
    Tooting CLP GM: 82 voted in favour of no confidence in Corbyn motion with 58 against.

    Putney CLP and Perth & Kinross CLP passed a similar motion. Holborn & St Pancrass rejected a confidence in JC motion.

    Sevenoaks, Calder Valley, Sheffield Hallam (but it was close), Totnes, Kensington CLPs GC passed a motion of confidence in Corbyn.

    Orpington CLP GC: 27 to 27...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump at Bangor, Maine (about an hour ago, starts at 22m)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rzMnxQagY0
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    RobD said:

    Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)

    Is she good at speeches? I was impressed by her facing down the police federataion while back, but that might not be the right tone.

    Though if SeanT is right and we want 'mummy' right now, maybe May should put out posters copying Merkel making her comforting hand gesture thing, the Merkel diamond - 'Britain is safe in May's hands'
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    Yes

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Was at an meeting of assorted luminaries and senior wise-guys earlier. The general view seemed to be that Article 50 will never be invoked. A bizarre consensus but there we are.

    In denial I fear.
    Definitely in denial. It will be invoked before the end of 2016.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?

    @jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    A good question. Anyone?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Hopefully May delivers a corker of a speech (I assume she will be speaking tomorrow)

    Is she good at speeches? I was impressed by her facing down the police federataion while back, but that might not be the right tone.

    Though if SeanT is right and we want 'mummy' right now, maybe May should put out posters copying Merkel making her comforting hand gesture thing, the Merkel diamond - 'Britain is safe in May's hands'
    The Merkel-Raute (Merkel Rhombus, lol)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:
    She's really got to fuck it up to lose now. And she's not terribly accident prone
    But it's Yougov - the polling company whose population sample does not bear any resemblance, save by chance, to the real world.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    Some good turnouts in Berkshire.

    Wokingham 80%, W.Berkshire 80%, Bracknell 76%, Reading 72%

    http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-reading-wokingham-11518563

    -----------

    Mr Elliot of the Vote Leave team said they had 30,000 activists, and they wanted to be involved. Not what I saw in my patch, but who knows.

    https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???

    MI5, I guess....
    I assumed it was Team Gove adding some pressure
    She sent it to a third party by mistake
    She is very competent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Scott_P said:

    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?

    @jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75
    PBers 4 May rejoice even more :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    John_M said:

    RobD said:
    Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the party
    For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.
    Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mine
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    And Marquee Mark I think too

    I decided to vote for whoever JRM nominated - so I'm for Boris.

    But to be honest, provided its not Crabb I'll be happy.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wanderer said:

    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    He has a point. Why should he listen to those elected by 9,347,324?
    Most of them just showed how in touch they were with those 9m voters by enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign.
    Most Labour voters backed Remain. There's a lot of focus on the sizeable minority that didn't but most did.
    But they thought that the "Remain" campaign was guaranteed to succeed. That is how bad their political judgement is. I remember reading the articles about a year ago - people like Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna thought that staying in the EU was one of the main principles of the "centre ground", and that Labour enthusiastically backing the Remain campaign would be a good move for Labour and show how in touch they were with mainstream voters.

    Clearly, it turned out supporting the EU was nowhere near as "centre ground" or "mainstream" as they thought. So why should I trust that they know how to win an election and how to appeal to the General Electorate, when they read the General Electorate so catastrophically badly on the EU???
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    We know it's going to be between Boris and Theresa... All these other non entities like Crabb and Fox are doing is holding up the UK getting a new Prime Minister at a time of crisis. They should all stand aside tomorrow, let Boris and Theresa go through and then we could have a new PM/Chancellor by the end of July.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited June 2016

    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?
    They just ring up all the Ant fans (of ant & Dec fame), but they stay well clear of those who say Dec is their favourite as they are all communists...that is according to the yougov panel.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STJamesl: Tooting clp (scene of Labour's latest victory) passed no confidence motion in Corbyn tonight I'm told
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
    We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump at Bangor, Maine (about an hour ago, starts at 22m)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rzMnxQagY0

    Just when you think your (political) day can't get any worse someone posts a picture of that arsehole.

    Definitely time to turn off politics for a couple of months/years/decades. Tories should back May if they are sane, Boris if they want some more fun.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:
    Well, at least it's not another 'I like and respect you but you are not the man for the party to help people' letter.

    I wonder how many of these Corbyn's actually read? After the 10th 'You're a bit crap' letter, I'd probably stop.

    Opening with how David Cameron spoke for most Labour Mps and voters may have been an odd choice. Reed also not about to let McDonnel fill the void either it seems.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    Tooting CLP GM: 82 voted in favour of no confidence in Corbyn motion with 58 against.

    Putney CLP and Perth & Kinross CLP passed a similar motion. Holborn & St Pancrass rejected a confidence in JC motion.

    Sevenoaks, Calder Valley, Sheffield Hallam (but it was close), Totnes, Kensington CLPs GC passed a motion of confidence in Corbyn.

    Orpington CLP GC: 27 to 27...

    Interesting thanks for that
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,856

    stjohn said:

    I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.

    But he's one of us.

    He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.
    I might give him a second look!
  • JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    And Marquee Mark I think too

    Im not but my parents are

    Currently both would support May but only as a Stop Boris candidate

    I think the problem for Boris is he is a Marmite candidate and unless it is Liam Fox I am struggling to see who he will beat in a head to head amongst the Party supporters
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161
    What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STJamesl: Holborn and st Pancras no confidence Jeremy Corbyn (withJame schneider in attendance)
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    kle4 said:

    It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.
    It's the long-term favourite that loses. If you become favourite during the race that's survivable. Eg, Cameron.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    Yes

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
    Oct 1 to dec 31st looks value at 3/1. I have put a few quid on.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    edited June 2016


    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?

    For Scotland, they just look in here.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    JohnO said:

    Just of interest how many posters here will actually be part of the Tory 'selectorate'?

    Apart from me, there is Richard N, TSE, Max, Casino, Plato, Concanvasser...must be more surely? So far I count 5 for May, 2 for Johnson.

    And Marquee Mark I think too

    Im not but my parents are

    Currently both would support May but only as a Stop Boris candidate

    I think the problem for Boris is he is a Marmite candidate and unless it is Liam Fox I am struggling to see who he will beat in a head to head amongst the Party supporters
    Is there a chance Boris doesn't make the ballot? He seems to be well down on the nominations he needs to ensure it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    alex. said:

    BTW, who leaked this Vine-Gove email???

    Why do you think it was a leak [ or, even a mistake ] ? I am not so sure now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    I have to say that Alan Johnson'sw performance in the Brexit campaign was utterly appalling. I didn't even know he was in charge of Labour remain.

    Shameful to go after Corbyn on this given the glass house he is in .
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    RobD said:
    Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the party
    For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.
    Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mine
    That's great to hear. I do fear things are going to get worse before they get better, but as Mr Schauble puts it, we're a leading country. We'll get to a good place.

    I'm a long-standing May fan, Boris's high falutin' fancy big-city talk don't cut no ice down here in the boonies.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well, at least it's not another 'I like and respect you but you are not the man for the party to help people' letter.

    I wonder how many of these Corbyn's actually read? After the 10th 'You're a bit crap' letter, I'd probably stop.

    Opening with how David Cameron spoke for most Labour Mps and voters may have been an odd choice. Reed also not about to let McDonnel fill the void either it seems.
    I'm assuming some whizz kid has created a Labour resignation letter generator by now
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    A good question. Anyone?
    Betfair have two one for this year the other this year, first 6 months next year, afterwards...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    edited June 2016
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
    Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?

    :wink:

    Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2016
    Alan Johnson has always been an useless campaigner.

    He even managed to lose that deputy leadership contest to Harman.
    Pulpstar said:

    I have to say that Alan Johnson'sw performance in the Brexit campaign was utterly appalling. I didn't even know he was in charge of Labour remain.

    Shameful to go after Corbyn on this given the glass house he is in .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Wanderer said:

    kle4 said:

    It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.
    It's the long-term favourite that loses. If you become favourite during the race that's survivable. Eg, Cameron.
    I was only kidding - I hope May wins. Maybe she would be a bad leader, I don't know, but if she's managed to hide that she would be a bad leader after this long as a Cabinet Minister, she'll probably be ok for a time. Boris meanwhile would have to have been hiding that he would be a good leader all this time.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    Yes

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
    Oct 1 to dec 31st looks value at 3/1. I have put a few quid on.
    More likely than the July - Sept favourite imo.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.

    Because, as ever with these Labour coups, the all-too-easy feeling of "[current incumbent] is doing crap" gets overridden when people start asking "but who exactly would do better?"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    RobD said:
    Maybe why markets are rising. A stability candidate and capable of uniting the party
    For the moment, the markets have moved on. They've done a bit of bargain hunting and are waiting on the Fed & China for the next piece of good/bad news.
    Good news for leavers. I converted to leave on the result and now my wife and daughter have joined me, though my youngest son was a Brexiteer before the vote. We are all confident that there is a wonderful future in front of us and hope that Teresa wins the vote. She has mine
    That's great to hear. I do fear things are going to get worse before they get better, but as Mr Schauble puts it, we're a leading country. We'll get to a good place.

    I'm a long-standing May fan, Boris's high falutin' fancy big-city talk don't cut no ice down here in the boonies.
    Does anyone have the numbers from The Times poll? Is Ms Leadsom in there?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161
    SeanT said:

    Yes, obviously.

    If REMAIN had narrowly won. Boris would be heading for Number 10, as a healer, in a year or two. That was his calculation.

    But LEAVE narrowly won, so it has to be a tepid REMAINIAC to keep the party together.
    Blimey, Crabb does nearly as well against May in finals, as Boris.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
    We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).
    Please stick around, we don't have many youngsters on the site. While I'm not precisely sure of the demographic split, it feels pretty middle aged/old.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    We know it's going to be between Boris and Theresa... All these other non entities like Crabb and Fox are doing is holding up the UK getting a new Prime Minister at a time of crisis. They should all stand aside tomorrow, let Boris and Theresa go through and then we could have a new PM/Chancellor by the end of July.
    Both the Boris and May camps have the same 2 aims right now;

    Firstly, to get onto the ballot of the party members. Secondly, to have Crabb as their opponent on the ballot of the party members.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Yes, obviously.

    If REMAIN had narrowly won. Boris would be heading for Number 10, as a healer, in a year or two. That was his calculation.

    But LEAVE narrowly won, so it has to be a tepid REMAINIAC to keep the party together.
    Is every one talking BOLLOCKS on PB?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,111

    What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.

    I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.

    Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?

  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    edited June 2016
    A woman who went missing during the referendum, V a man who went missing post referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited June 2016
    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    A good question. Anyone?
    Betfair has some markets on it:

    Triggered date - 2016 (1.8), Jan-Jun 2017 (2.86), not by Jul 17 (2.18)
    In 2016 - Yes (1.98), No (1.9)

    £6000 matched so far, so early days
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    weejonnie said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:
    She's really got to fuck it up to lose now. And she's not terribly accident prone
    But it's Yougov - the polling company whose population sample does not bear any resemblance, save by chance, to the real world.
    Fortunately neither does the Tory party membership.

    For once having a panel that is disproportionately politically engaged works in their favour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    What happened to the much hyped return of banana man. I presume he was just back on business or visiting family (obviously not Ed).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Scott_P said:

    You have to question how they find the party members though. Their previous weightings of the public have been highly suspect. How do they go about finding members in Shropshire and Scotland?

    @jantalipinski: This survey is amongst a representative sample of Tory members (we predicted DC's victory with 1% error and IDS 0%) https://t.co/e6q55SQt75
    Thanks. I'll still put a big hmmmmm.... against "representative sample".
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    A good question. Anyone?
    Betfair have two one for this year the other this year, first 6 months next year, afterwards...
    SkyBet have the below

    Before June 30 2016 100/1
    July 1 to September 30 2016 5/2
    October 1 to December 31 2016 3/1
    January 1 to March 31 2017 4/1
    April 1 to June 30 2017 4/1
    July 1 to September 30 2017 20/1
    October 1 to December 31 2017 33/1
    2018 or later, or not at all 3/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161
    tyson said:

    What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.

    I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.

    Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?

    I did indeed need to Google him, although the name sounded vaguely familiar.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,161

    What happened to the much hyped return of banana man. I presume he was just back on business or visiting family (obviously not Ed).

    Have faith.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
    We can if we voted!
    Yes. It's one of those things where I just don't know how to fix the problem, as I don't understand it. I get not caring about politics, or politicians, of widespread apathy, but even that as an excuse only extends so far. I know 60 year olds who've never voted, voted in the referendum, but insist they won't ever vote again as they won't vote for a politicians, why can't the young be like that at least? More of them at any rate - honestly, I'm not even 30 and
    the young demographic are turning me into an old grouch.

    Or that might be spending time on PB surrounded by octogenarians :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    tyson said:

    What the * is going on. Hodges now reporting that there may not be a leadership bid tomorrow and Owen Smith taking soundings.

    I think the PLP realises it cannot take out Jeremy Corbyn, twat, with Dear Auntie Mabel, god bless her, she can make a nice scones, but killing Jezza is another matter.

    Owen Smith....who is he. If he took soundings, I would say...Who the fuck are you?

    I quite like him, and think he could be a potential good future leader, but I've not seen anywhere near enough to prove it yet. And I'm not going to take a punt on someone who might well be worse than Corbyn until they've proven themselves.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,111
    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    I can't warm to Crabbe. Just seen the clip of him making his rugby metaphor again - part of his declaration speech. A bit cringeworthy.

    But he's one of us.

    He told everyone he knows how to lay a bet.
    I might give him a second look!
    I quite liked him, until I realised he's a bible thumper. He may as well join ISIS, believing in that lot of old bollox.
This discussion has been closed.