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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of bre

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

One of the most haunting Arthurian legends concerns Sir Balin.  Merlin had long prophesied that he would “strike a stroke most dolorous that ever man struck”.  Shrugging off this particular instance of Project Fear from an expert, Sir Balin entered into a feud with the family of King Pellam.  Being pursued by the king through his castle, Sir Balin seized “a marvellous spear strangely wrought” and dealt a fierce blow to the king.  The spear turned out to be the spear of destiny that struck Jesus and the blow caused immeasurably wider devastation than Sir Balin could have conceived.  Sir Thomas Malory recorded that:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited June 2016
    Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.

    The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.

    The PM being rejected directly on this topic, had to go.

    The Labour party has used this as cover to move against their failed leader but it was only a question of when not if.

    The world hasn't ended, accommodations will be reached, the world still turns. It's not like 1642
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I don't see why there would be a general election this year.

    The referendum gave the government a policy goal. Mr Cameron had to be replaced, but once the new PM is in place the government has a task to accomplish. A general election would just be an unnecessary distraction.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT -- America holds its conventions in a couple of weeks, so keep an eye on the VP nominees markets.
    Republicans 18 to 21 July
    Democrats 25 to 28 July
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly - two new threads.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''A general election would just be an unnecessary distraction. ''

    And unpopular with the electorate, in my view. There's been enough upheaval. Form a government, implement a brexit, and let the voters deliver their view in four years.
  • Options
    Robert_EveRobert_Eve Posts: 31
    Labour down the tubes for good - Bring it on!!
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Livingstone has announced he's resigning from Labour NEC. As he's suspended, he can't take part to NEC meetings. The replacement according to the 2014 results is Darren Williams from the Left slate

    New election for CLP reps on the NEC are due this summer. Last Friday was the deadline for CLPs to submit nominations...but HQ didn't manage to release the final tally yet. We have the last Wednesday figures though
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Watching Watson's words about not standing for Leader and whether he challenged Corbyn to resign, two things jumped out at me.

    1 - He talked about McDonnell quite a bit. '[McDonnell and Corbyn] are a team' [McDonnell] speaks for Jeremy'. Part of me wondered if that was clever politics, trying to suggest to the Corbynites that changing to McDonnell as leader would not be a big difference and so acceptable to them, and so hopefully convince them to get Corbyn to stand down.

    2 - He said the felt one of the prerequisites of being deputy is never wanting to be Leader. Huh? The whole point would be if the Leader is gone, or has to go, you can step up.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,788
    maaarsh said:

    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.

    I think its very likely that sterling is a massive buy too (I don't have a position because if I'm wrong its a double whammy). The UK has insulated itself against the Euro-begging bowl. Of course full insulation is a way off, but when Greece come to the table, and they will soon, we'll give them precisely what we're obliged to, but not a drachma more.

    Mind you keep this a bit hush-hush as a substantial rise in sterling will be rather crap for us.

    The smart players mainly look for the next stress point rather than worrying about the last.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/748213548719964160
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Matt nails it:

    https://twitter.com/harryph/status/748210650493648896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    I think it has been the general consensus on here up until now that a Con PM could in practice call a snap GE as Labour could hardly duck the opportunity of a return to power - so Lab MPs would allow the PM to get round the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

    However, with Lab in all this turmoil, surely Lab "backbench" MPs (ie the vast majority of Lab MPs) would say "No, you can't call a GE right now, until we've sorted ourselves out". They wouldn't have to specify how long that would be but the effect would be to prevent the snap GE.

    Going down the other route of actually repealing the FTPA is a non-starter as it couldn't be done rapidly due to the Lords.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    fpt. I mean is this it?? This is what we went through, are going through all this for?
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SeanT said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
    But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
    If that is the case, then why Leave ?
    We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.
    One was no free movement of people.
    Not for Richard. He is one of the Enlightened Ones that will happily accept the betrayal of the desires of the majority of the Leave voters (foreigners out) because he sees a more elegant solution in some supposed EEA arrangement.

    Although why being vetoed by Norway is a superior state of affairs to being vetoed by France, or outvoted by France and Poland, is anyone's guess.
    Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.

    Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
    My understanding, and it has lapsed of late, is that EU laws must be accepted or rejected by the EEA before being written into the EEA agreement (or not).

    What happens if Norway and the UK differ on one particular EU law or another being written into the EEA agreement?
    If anyone does not accept it then it is vetoed.

    Norway has recently done this with proposals to include oil and gas regulation in the EEA Agreement.
    So the EEA route Norway has sovereignty over us?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    It is of course far too early to conclude that Brexit is a disaster. Even the chirpiest Brexiteer, however, would have to concede that the barometer is currently firmly pointing to storm

    Yes that's fair.

    It will be difficult to craft a decent Leave position, but the Tories seem like they are remaining united, more so than I would have thought, so it can be done.

    I think this piece is quite right the key is what is Labour's position to be. It cannot be to not declare article 50 (if that is ever to become someone's position it will not be right now, when it is too early to change track, even if it is ever possible), so what? LDs have the rejoin option, and that's not without problems for Labour to copy. The Tories are coming together to form one. But what options are Labour even considering?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    I'd die of laughter if Andy Burnham ran for the leadership again.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Matt nails it:

    https://twitter.com/harryph/status/748210650493648896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Boris was born overseas...
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    This was the thread that appeared this morning and then unthreaded. I was about to call a point of order as MrJohnstone had been defrauded of the first position.

    I am glad to see we have rerun and he has at last had his say
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310
    MikeL said:

    I think it has been the general consensus on here up until now that a Con PM could in practice call a snap GE as Labour could hardly duck the opportunity of a return to power - so Lab MPs would allow the PM to get round the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

    However, with Lab in all this turmoil, surely Lab "backbench" MPs (ie the vast majority of Lab MPs) would say "No, you can't call a GE right now, until we've sorted ourselves out". They wouldn't have to specify how long that would be but the effect would be to prevent the snap GE.

    Going down the other route of actually repealing the FTPA is a non-starter as it couldn't be done rapidly due to the Lords.

    Yes, one of the parties won't want a GE and will easily find an excuse to prevent one.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Boris endorsements are inching up very slowly - but still nowhere near the 100 he was reported to have - at least not publicly anyway.

    Per Guido spreadsheet (including the candidate) it's now:

    Boris - 38
    Crabb - 20
    May - 18
    Fox - 7

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Matt nails it:

    //twitter.com/harryph/status/748210650493648896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    Awesome.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    asjohnstone said:

    Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.

    The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.

    Your last line is ambiguous to me - are you in the camp the deal needs voting on, or the people will accept or reject it through a GE vote after the fact?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,466
    A very fluent summary. Not one I agree with. I feel this would have been more cogent a couple of days ago. People are gradually moving on and looking to the future.
  • Options
    ManWithThePlanManWithThePlan Posts: 103
    TOPPING said:

    fpt. I mean is this it?? This is what we went through, are going through all this for?

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SeanT said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
    But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
    If that is the case, then why Leave ?
    We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.
    One was no free movement of people.
    Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.

    Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
    My understanding, and it has lapsed of late, is that EU laws must be accepted or rejected by the EEA before being written into the EEA agreement (or not).

    What happens if Norway and the UK differ on one particular EU law or another being written into the EEA agreement?
    If anyone does not accept it then it is vetoed.

    Norway has recently done this with proposals to include oil and gas regulation in the EEA Agreement.
    So the EEA route Norway has sovereignty over us?
    No. We would still be free to bring in our regulation for just the UK.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,826
    Interesting though isn't it...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The comments on the Guardian threads are a poor indication I'm sure, but I reckon those who voted for Corbyn last time are gearing up to vote for him again.

    All of which leaves 170-odd labour MPs with a bit of a problem....
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Matt nails it:

    https://twitter.com/harryph/status/748210650493648896/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    Many are under the impression that's been the case for 42 years.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/748213548719964160

    It won't be over until Falconer goes.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    MikeL said:

    Boris endorsements are inching up very slowly - but still nowhere near the 100 he was reported to have - at least not publicly anyway.

    Per Guido spreadsheet (including the candidate) it's now:

    Boris - 38
    Crabb - 20
    May - 18
    Fox - 7

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0

    Very sophisticated electorate - they'll be nominating opponents to try and knock others out.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd die of laughter if Andy Burnham ran for the leadership again.

    ....and then won
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,264
    Is there not one Labour MP prepared to do the deed?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/748213548719964160

    Burnham and Winteron about to resign then?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    ManWithThePlan said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt. I mean is this it?? This is what we went through, are going through all this for?

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TOPPING said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    SeanT said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SeanT said:

    That Credit Suisse prediction is just horrible.

    We have to accept this is a major fucking EEA, STAY

    The house is catching on fire and we're squabbling in the kitchen about whose turn it is to put out the bins

    It may well be simple. May and Johnson will say EEA. The new Labour leader, if there is one, might be Stay. There may be an election, but, either way, most of the access to the single market will be retained.
    But we can't even accept EEA on the terms threatened by France - loss of passporting.

    There is no question of accepting EEA membership on any particular terms.

    If we take the EEA route it will be on the current terms including freedom of movement, passporting etc. Those terms are defined by treaty and cannot be changed for any member without being changed for all.
    If that is the case, then why Leave ?
    We have listed the advantages of leaving so many times before that I am not going to bother repeating them for you yet again.
    One was no free movement of people.
    Because we cannot be outvoted by anyone if we are in EFTA. There is no QMV and all votes have to be unanimous.

    Baring betrayal by the politicians we are now on our way out of the EU. This means that the decision on where to proceed must be made on behalf of all the electorate, not just the 23% who have said they would not want the EFTA route.
    My understanding, and it has lapsed of late, is that EU laws must be accepted or rejected by the EEA before being written into the EEA agreement (or not).

    What happens if Norway and the UK differ on one particular EU law or another being written into the EEA agreement?
    If anyone does not accept it then it is vetoed.

    Norway has recently done this with proposals to include oil and gas regulation in the EEA Agreement.
    So the EEA route Norway has sovereignty over us?
    No. We would still be free to bring in our regulation for just the UK.
    EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.

    EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,992
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/748213548719964160

    Will he resign if Corbyn says no or stay on....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    Where Eagle dares?

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/748215325963988992
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The majority party can trigger a GE by voting against itelf (or indeed simply abstaining) in a vote of confidence. Hell, Labour are doing it, so why shouldn't the Conservatives?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Boris endorsements are inching up very slowly - but still nowhere near the 100 he was reported to have - at least not publicly anyway.

    Per Guido spreadsheet (including the candidate) it's now:

    Boris - 38
    Crabb - 20
    May - 18
    Fox - 7

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0

    Very sophisticated electorate - they'll be nominating opponents to try and knock others out.
    Possibly - but he needs 110 to guarantee making the Final.

    If he has actually got 110 (and spare on top to do as you say) then he's in the Final which in turn surely means he should be odds on - or at the very worst even money as he must have at the very least a 50:50 shot with the members.

    But in fact he's still significantly odds against - implying he doesn't actually have the 110 - and indeed that he must be well short.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,264
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where Eagle dares?

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/748215325963988992

    Oh FFS. Get on with it.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Before 9am "Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions"

    After 5pm. UK stock markets up, some above pre Brexit level

    Crisis. what fecking crisis?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,264
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Before 9am "Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions"

    After 5pm. UK stock markets up, some above pre Brexit level

    Crisis. what fecking crisis?

    Don't worry, it's coming.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    MikeL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Boris endorsements are inching up very slowly - but still nowhere near the 100 he was reported to have - at least not publicly anyway.

    Per Guido spreadsheet (including the candidate) it's now:

    Boris - 38
    Crabb - 20
    May - 18
    Fox - 7

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0

    Very sophisticated electorate - they'll be nominating opponents to try and knock others out.
    Possibly - but he needs 110 to guarantee making the Final.

    If he has actually got 110 (and spare on top to do as you say) then he's in the Final which in turn surely means he should be odds on - or at the very worst even money as he must have at the very least a 50:50 shot with the members.

    But in fact he's still significantly odds against - implying he doesn't actually have the 110 - and indeed that he must be well short.
    Didn't Portillo effectively guarantee his place in the final two on the back of "endorsements"?

    What's the point of a campaign if you have to try and stack up the votes in advance?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Where Eagle dares?

    https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/748215325963988992

    Oh FFS. Get on with it.
    Exactly - the time for being coy is over, somebody take the plunge already and step up. One reason I was predisposed to like Liz Kendall when she first announced last time was she didn't pussyfoot around when first asked, about considering options or some such nonsense, she said she was.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    OT -- America holds its conventions in a couple of weeks, so keep an eye on the VP nominees markets.
    Republicans 18 to 21 July
    Democrats 25 to 28 July

    That's a good point. The Veep nominations are going to matter way more than usual, given the massive negative ratings of the candidates. The question is, does anyone half decent want to serve in that office in the first place?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    edited June 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.

    Yep we would need to organise rallies on alternate weeks at Trafalgar Square and Victoria Park and he would be happy as a pig in...
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good for the New Zealanders, that's a lovely gesture:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Has Burnham delivered jezzas coffee yet?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.

    How about making him President, or "honorary leader" or something?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Before 9am "Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions"

    After 5pm. UK stock markets up, some above pre Brexit level

    Crisis. what fecking crisis?

    The media vs the Brexit campaigners.
    http://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/david-keighleys-bbc-watch-the-beeb-is-on-a-mission-to-destroy-the-brexit-vote/
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/we-leavers-are-not-racists-bigots-or-hooligans--no-matter-what-t/
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,788
    kle4 said:

    It is of course far too early to conclude that Brexit is a disaster. Even the chirpiest Brexiteer, however, would have to concede that the barometer is currently firmly pointing to storm

    Yes that's fair.

    It will be difficult to craft a decent Leave position, but the Tories seem like they are remaining united, more so than I would have thought, so it can be done.

    I think this piece is quite right the key is what is Labour's position to be. It cannot be to not declare article 50 (if that is ever to become someone's position it will not be right now, when it is too early to change track, even if it is ever possible), so what? LDs have the rejoin option, and that's not without problems for Labour to copy. The Tories are coming together to form one. But what options are Labour even considering?

    "Even the chirpiest Brexiteer, however, would have to concede that the barometer is currently firmly pointing to storm"

    So I just about voted to leave - I really wrestled with the decision. I would not agree at all with your assertion though. The barometer is all over the place. It is definitely not pointing anywhere. My guess is towards mild drizzle at worst.

    The big risk to the UK is mainly the EU as it stands now.

    We have walked away from a bomb that's ticking. In part we may have contributed to starting the timer (which is a bad thing, so sorry). We're not walking away fast enough, and will get some quite nasty wounds in the blast.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    MikeL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Boris endorsements are inching up very slowly - but still nowhere near the 100 he was reported to have - at least not publicly anyway.

    Per Guido spreadsheet (including the candidate) it's now:

    Boris - 38
    Crabb - 20
    May - 18
    Fox - 7

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0

    Very sophisticated electorate - they'll be nominating opponents to try and knock others out.
    Possibly - but he needs 110 to guarantee making the Final.

    If he has actually got 110 (and spare on top to do as you say) then he's in the Final which in turn surely means he should be odds on - or at the very worst even money as he must have at the very least a 50:50 shot with the members.

    But in fact he's still significantly odds against - implying he doesn't actually have the 110 - and indeed that he must be well short.
    Betfair is NOT a proper guide to probability on politics. If it was then all of us would just be at -5%.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    The existential crises being suffered by the EU and Labour Party are definitely features not bugs of this result.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    Would he be the ghost of Xmas past, present or yet to come?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    http://www.ibtimes.com.au/ausexit-campaign-australia-cut-ties-commonwealth-gains-momentum-after-historic-brexit-vote-1520338

    AusExit campaign for Australia to cut ties with Commonwealth gains momentum after historic Brexit vote
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    TOPPING said:


    EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.

    EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?

    No agreement.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    williamglenn said:

    http://www.ibtimes.com.au/ausexit-campaign-australia-cut-ties-commonwealth-gains-momentum-after-historic-brexit-vote-1520338

    AusExit campaign for Australia to cut ties with Commonwealth gains momentum after historic Brexit vote

    Just because they got whitewashed in the rugby they are taking their bat and ball home.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Before 9am "Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions"

    After 5pm. UK stock markets up, some above pre Brexit level

    Crisis. what fecking crisis?

    the only big hit so far is the currency. Arguably that was as at the wrong level given the BOP. it is however slowly picking itself off the floor so will be worth looking at in a months time.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    williamglenn said:

    http://www.ibtimes.com.au/ausexit-campaign-australia-cut-ties-commonwealth-gains-momentum-after-historic-brexit-vote-1520338

    AusExit campaign for Australia to cut ties with Commonwealth gains momentum after historic Brexit vote

    What a shocker! A leading Australian republican calls for the abolition of the monarchy.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    Would he be the ghost of Xmas past, present or yet to come?
    Not sure JC does Christmas. It would probably the ghost of Jezmus past.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    alex. said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.

    How about making him President, or "honorary leader" or something?
    If he survives this then he would have performed a miracle. A couple more and he could be declared a saint.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    John_M said:

    Good for the New Zealanders, that's a lovely gesture:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/

    Well done them, and proof that the rest of the world will be very open to getting deals done - and done quickly - to everyone's benefit. :)
    http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-gearing-up-to-strike-trade-deals-with-britain/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    edited June 2016
    Moses_ said:

    alex. said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.

    How about making him President, or "honorary leader" or something?
    If he survives this then he would have performed a miracle. A couple more and he could be declared a saint.
    I'm sure a lot of Labour MPs would love to see him "canonized"
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    Jonathan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    Would he be the ghost of Xmas past, present or yet to come?
    Not sure JC does Christmas. It would probably the ghost of Jezmus past.
    He's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Very important to note that in past Conservative leader elections, there have been some curious anomalies between the public declarations of support and the actual votes cast in the (secret) ballot. Furthermore, MPs change their minds between rounds.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    The Vine email explained

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    OK, I'll get my wife to leak an email saying you are not up to it. Then neither of us has to take it.

    Splendid!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    Tony would definitely not be telling Corbyn to resign.

    More likely to be telling his son to STFU
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Any Tory members on here please write to your MP to not nominate Crabbe as he is obviously Osborne's way of getting the leadership without running.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    maaarsh said:

    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.

    But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,296
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Very important to note that in past Conservative leader elections, there have been some curious anomalies between the public declarations of support and the actual votes cast in the (secret) ballot. Furthermore, MPs change their minds between rounds.

    Wasn't it Hacker who supported Eric and Duncan? Then forced them both to withdraw of course...
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:


    EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.

    EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?

    No agreement.
    Fecking peasants

    Coffee should never have 100degree boiling water it kills it. On the other hand tea.....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    bigjohnowls said:

    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    Tony would definitely not be telling Corbyn to resign.

    More likely to be telling his son to STFU
    Of course he would tell JC to resign. This ego trip of JC would have broken Tony Benn's heart.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Mortimer said:

    maaarsh said:

    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.

    But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
    So does Mr Meeks at the top of this thread. "We're all doomed".
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Moses_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd die of laughter if Andy Burnham ran for the leadership again.

    ....and then won
    ABB - anyone but Burnham!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Alanbrooke said:


    the only big hit so far is the currency.

    Ahem. Easyjet, Lloyds, RBS, Berkeley, Persimmon...

    There's a major hit on UK-focused sectors. Companies whose revenues are largely in US dollars have benefited. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in the effect of Brexit on the UK economy.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    I can see why the teachers hated Gove now. What a plonker.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/748090095861899264
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see why the teachers hated Gove now. What a plonker.

    Do you say that because of any particular plonking?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,788
    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.

    I would hope that Tony Benn would be rather proud of his son's actions in this. He's been very dignified, and straightforward. I can't really imagine what he'd be advocating if he was alive - Corbyn clearly has a mandate and that would have been a key thing, but nonetheless this is a stupid fight. My hunch therefore is that Tony Benn would have been proud of his son (principles etc), been a defender of Corbyn's mandate to stay, but would have been strongly advocating that he should choose (very important) to depart.

    (I'm a big Tony Benn fan despite being a Tory voter)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Overheard yesterday in Dublin: ‘So the English are knocked out of Europe twice in one week. Once by Iceland, once by people who shop there.’
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited June 2016
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I can see why the teachers hated Gove now. What a plonker.

    Do you say that because of any particular plonking?
    Had enough of experts, e-mail shenanigans to try and get himself out the soup.

    & Not having any sort of post brexit plan. I assumed whilst Boris was the piss and wind of the campaign Gove might be formulating some post-Brexit outline.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/748164226716418048
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Mortimer said:

    maaarsh said:

    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.

    But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
    It's too early to say one way or another. My antidote to the dire reporting in the UK is to read the foreign press. They're far less partisan.

    Interestingly, some are already moving on to worry about NLexit, which would be far more of a test for the EZ. Can't see that happening myself.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,257
    nunu said:

    Any Tory members on here please write to your MP to not nominate Crabbe as he is obviously Osborne's way of getting the leadership without running.

    Crabb can beat May to the final two. Then it's him vs Boris, remain vs leave....

    Still time for Falconer to declare
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RobD said:

    Moses_ said:

    alex. said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if there is a way to make JC think he is still leader. It might not be that hard, he does not get out much.

    It would take about 30 people to follow the messiah around Islington saying JezWeCan and some kind of Internet proxy that redirects his traffic to a cached copy of the Morning Star.

    He need never know.

    How about making him President, or "honorary leader" or something?
    If he survives this then he would have performed a miracle. A couple more and he could be declared a saint.
    I'm sure a lot of Labour MPs would love to see him "canonized"
    I believe the traditional and well loved expulsion method with great force on PB is is only in the giving and blessing of Mr Morris. ( initially having been subjected to the enormohaddock of course)
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    We are suspended in Neverland until article 50 is invoked or removed from the table
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see why the teachers hated Gove now. What a plonker.

    Tories were level pegging with Labour amongst teachers at the GE 2015 election. The blob don't like him, but many teachers see the need for reform, which has been successful on the whole.We should see results falling now which was the aim, before rising again.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    RochdalePioneers said:

    nunu said:

    Any Tory members on here please write to your MP to not nominate Crabbe as he is obviously Osborne's way of getting the leadership without running.

    Crabb can beat May to the final two. Then it's him vs Boris, remain vs leave....

    Still time for Falconer to declare
    Heaven forbid!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sandpit said:

    John_M said:

    Good for the New Zealanders, that's a lovely gesture:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/

    Well done them, and proof that the rest of the world will be very open to getting deals done - and done quickly - to everyone's benefit. :)
    http://heatst.com/uk/11-countries-gearing-up-to-strike-trade-deals-with-britain/
    Yay for the new Enlightened Economic Commonwealth.

    The EEC.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    rottenborough said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Before 9am "Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions"

    After 5pm. UK stock markets up, some above pre Brexit level

    Crisis. what fecking crisis?

    Don't worry, it's coming.
    Is that the Winter or the plague of locusts or WW3 coming?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,788
    RochdalePioneers said:

    nunu said:

    Any Tory members on here please write to your MP to not nominate Crabbe as he is obviously Osborne's way of getting the leadership without running.

    Crabb can beat May to the final two. Then it's him vs Boris, remain vs leave....

    Still time for Falconer to declare
    Falconer will never resign though
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @MaxPB FPT

    As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    edited June 2016
    Jon Snow on Channel 4 News says rumour that Eagle will make a statement tomorrow at 3 pm that she will challenge Corbyn for the leadership.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    RochdalePioneers said:

    nunu said:

    Any Tory members on here please write to your MP to not nominate Crabbe as he is obviously Osborne's way of getting the leadership without running.

    Crabb can beat May to the final two. Then it's him vs Boris, remain vs leave....

    Still time for Falconer to declare
    Has Falconer resigned yet
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    the only big hit so far is the currency.

    Ahem. Easyjet, Lloyds, RBS, Berkeley, Persimmon...

    There's a major hit on UK-focused sectors. Companies whose revenues are largely in US dollars have benefited. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in the effect of Brexit on the UK economy.
    individual shares and sectors always bounce around. The total index is up and the FTSE 250 is back where it was mid June.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Yep Eagle conference 3pm tomorrow
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,972
    stjohn said:

    Channel 4 says rumour Eagle will challenge tomorrow

    What's the official procedure to force a leadership election (is there one?)
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Mortimer said:

    maaarsh said:

    On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.

    But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
    I have to say that it has been very quiet on here on that front today....

    Friday I had visions of A&E being filled with PB'ers stretched in having thrown themselves out of Windows 10.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    alex. said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/748213548719964160

    It won't be over until Falconer goes.
    :smiley:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCVickiYoung: Angela Eagle to launch leadership challenge tomorrow @JPonpolitics #labour
This discussion has been closed.