politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months

MaxPB said:

Wanderer said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone

Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.

Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).

No, the mistake was in even thinking about the idea of such a budget. The chancellor has increased his borrowing by £180bn in the last six years over his original target, the idea that he would choose the hard option this one time when asked to do so is rubbish.

Well, you certainly haven't heard the last of the phrase.

The_Apocalypse said:

Harman's called for Corbyn to go. Bloody hell.

Bloody Tory

Surely the first Tory to actually act like a Tory and say they'll invoke art 50 wins ?

@TheScreamingEagles LOL!

@bigjohnowls Were you expecting Harman to intervene? I wasn't.

After all this will Corbyn count as an ex Leader or will be be unnumbered like the War Doctor ?

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Neil schooling Thornberry on the difference between "money supply" and fiscal economics.

I'm honestly confused by Labour at the moment. Who is going to stand opposite Dave at 12pm?

Or maybe Labour could pretend the Corbyn Leadership was like the Doctor Who TV movie ? Spend a few years arguing about Paul McGann's canonicity as a proxy for his awfulness ?

surbiton said:

Sandpit said:

So, do we know whom the Speaker will call as the LotO at PMQs?

Maybe JC will announce his departure.

Corbyn answers to the Labour party members not the House of Commons.

@jimwaterson: Roman emperors used to entertain the public with grizzly execution by lions. In 2016 we send Jeremy Corbyn to PMQs with 600 MPs against him.

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams? I am glad I never had her defending my human rights, I would have probably ended up in Guantanamo Bay.

The_Apocalypse said:

@TheScreamingEagles LOL!

@bigjohnowls Were you expecting Harman to intervene? I wasn't.

Of course.

Next Wednesday is nearly here the Blairites cannot afford Corbyn to be in charge then.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@jimwaterson: Roman emperors used to entertain the public with grizzly execution by lions. In 2016 we send Jeremy Corbyn to PMQs with 600 MPs against him.

I don't know about that, the government benches will be crossing their fingers hoping he manages to weather the storm.

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/748099664247922688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams?

Family connections. Look at who her dad was.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams? I am glad I never had her defending my human rights, I would have probably ended up in Guantanamo Bay.

Is she a ' real ' QC or is she using the honourific all MP lawyers get ?

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/748099664247922688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams?

LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

rottenborough said:

McCluskey is back from Vegas. Says all the plotting is pointless.

Not the most ringing of endorsements.

If I were a Labour MP, I'd be doing a hell of a lot of round robin with my colleagues before nominating a candidate - someone willing to be leftish enough but who you could see as PM and with enough support to get on the candidacy. The Eagle bandwagon is not one I would be getting on straight away.

Supporting Syria may not be a problem now, you can simply note the position taken in this article (which itself pre-empts parts of Benn's speech):
http://labourlist.org/2015/10/we-must-remember-that-syria-is-not-iraq-and-build-a-plan-for-action/

Supporting Iraq, especially from within the Shadow Cabinet, will be a cause of far more difficulty and expect much wailing that 'Blair hid the facts from us' from previous loyalists as those people try to hold their own.

Technically, I agree with the Corbynites that the correct way of doing this was by a leadership election, but politically the shenanigans of the last few days have drawn the stain of disloyalty from anyone wanting to now stand, which I think was exactly the point. Hilary Benn effectively has taken the role of the Bounty Kitchen Roll in this coup.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis backs Boris for leader.

Well that's convinced me

To vote for May?

ABB

Boris v Fox?

I'm s(p)oiling my ballot paper in those circumstances

surbiton said:

RochdalePioneers said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/748099664247922688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?

Still he is correct. 60% of labour voters voted Remain.

40% of them didn't.

Or to put it another way:

Conservative party = split > Conservative voters = split
Labour party = almost united > Labour voters = split.

Lab benches full.

Splitters have turned up

tyson said:

NickPalmer said:

tyson said:

The Corbyn cult is quite interesting. I can't help but think that for years this man has been ignored, an old school firebrand, isolated, making his own meetings with his comradely chums equally despised, laughed and sneered at by his Parliamentary colleagues, voted Parliamentary beard of the year as a piss take.
Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.

I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.

That's over-analysis (to put it mildly - there is actually nobody in politics who I'd compare with an alleged murderer, not even a BNP leader). He doesn't loathe anyone (less than most people here, I'd think) - it's one of his attractive qualities, and widely reciprocated, as acknowledged in many of the resignation letters. Rebelling colleagues generally think he's ineffective and inflexible, not evil or mad. He merely sees himself as the representative of a strand of political thinking, obliged to do his best by it.

Nick- I am not calling him a mass murderer, or evil, I am just trying to rationalise why he is staying against this kind of opposition. Most politicians suffer from some kind of narcissism...it is what draws them into politics, a bit like asbergers draws people to computers or Dr Who.

Brown was a classic narcissist, but even Brown would have been long gone facing this kind of opposition.

One hopes that Corbyn is simply playing out a (McDonnell) strategy to get an anointed successor onto a ballot paper, and they are playing for time. Then I'll be wrong.

If not Nick, and Corbyn intends to run again, and destroy the Labour Party while he's at it, it is because he believes that he is the only one fighting a righteous cause against all the non believers. The proof will be in what he does next.

Incidentally, David Blanket yesterday was saying as much as I'm saying here. Maybe the comparison to Hamilton was a slightly OTT.

He may just see it as a matter of principle. He got a huge mandate from the party. The opinion polls aren't great but he's in the game so to speak. He's been there less than a year. He may well be doomed but I can easily believe that he feels he hasn't been given a fair chance.

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''

No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.

Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?

When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?

I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:

If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.

The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".

The financial passport is probably gone, or at least the ability to do financial transactions in London on the same basis as elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. If we do nothing financial institutions will assume they are better off moving. Given the inevitable, is it worth trying to get some limits on immigration while salvaging what we can of the test of the single market? To an approximation we will take what we are offered by the EU. It's unlikely to be so bad we prefer nothing at all, and we don't have a lot of choices now we have rejected full membership.

@bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.

Watson by Jezzas side.

Does he have a knife?

Leadsom still in the running:
"Andrea Leadsom has the tentative support of up to 60 Leave MPs if she runs. A group of them met in her office yesterday. At 6 pm Boris turned up and the MPs left, Johnson and Leadsom then had a ten minute one-on-one summit to try to agree terms of her joining the ticket. No deal was reached, Andrea is playing hardball and has also had talks with Theresa May’s team…"

http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/gove-chief-negotiator-boris-leadsom-summit-priti-rumours/

bigjohnowls said:

Watson by Jezzas side.

Does he have a knife?

You have to hang up your swords on entry to the House I believe.

IanB2 said:

JackW said:

FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News

0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".

Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?

Happy to report that my export book sales have increased significantly since the fall in the Dollar exchange rate.

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

taffys said:

''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''

No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.

Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?

When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?

I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:

If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.

The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".

The financial passport is probably gone, or at least the ability to do financial transactions in London on the same basis as elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. If we do nothing financial institutions will assume they are better off moving. Given the inevitable, is it worth trying to get some limits on immigration while salvaging what we can of the test of the single market? To an approximation we will take what we are offered by the EU. It's unlikely to be so bad we prefer nothing at all, and we don't have a lot of choices now we have rejected full membership.

I don't think it's gone if we keep free movement, it will be the price to pay if we choose to have no free movement.

PMQs much better so far.

Relative calm so far.

Fenster said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @aburnhammp deny claims he's set to quit shadow cabinet

LOL - hands up who's got a constituency that loves Corbyn!

But what about Falconer?

"Paid down the deficit" AARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

Prime Minister, you know that's misleading.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams?

LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

The Times expected yesterday's rally to be a dead cat bounce.

I did too, clearly it wasn't.

MaxPB said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

Thornberry: Pound is falling
Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.

How did this women ever pass the law exams?

LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

The Times expected yesterday's rally to be a dead cat bounce.

I did too, clearly it wasn't.

Not a traditional one, anyway.

PlatoSaid said:

Who's the lady sat next to Jezza?

Kate Osamor

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Davis backs Boris for leader.

Well that's convinced me

If David Davis is a Borista, hard to see Fox getting anywhere close to a challenge.

Yay!

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/748099664247922688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?

Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.

As Chairman of the Wakefield and Hemsworth Conservative Association, I look forward to gains in both seats on that basis.

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

tlg86 said:

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/748099664247922688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?

Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.

In Northern working class seats, (or Luton for that matter) it was probably something like 50/50 Labour, 70/30 Conservative, 95/5 UKIP, that delivered big Leave majorities. In places like Islington, Labour were probably splitting 90/10 Remain.

PMQs feels like a funeral. Cameron and Corbyn both going through the motions.

PlatoSaid said:

HurstLlama said:

PlatoSaid said:

John_M said:

From the Spectator:

"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."

There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.

What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.

Miss P., It was quite a common nickname in the Northumberland Fusiliers (later 3rd Battalion RRF) for chaps whose first name was Tony or Anthony. I think a bit like someone whose surname was Miller was almost invariably called Dusty.

As an aside are nicknames used as much as they were? When I was young everyone had a nickname and was seldom referred to as anything else. For example, I served for two years with a bloke known as "Frub", it was only at his leaving do when I was chatting with his wife that I found out his real name was Stephen.

My nickname is Flip/Flippy - everyone who knows me well uses one of them. I didn't notice how odd it sounds until my husband called to me down an aisle in Tescos. Even my mum called me Flippy.

It came from my bigger brothers inability to pronounce my Christian name. I'd a good friend who's nickname was Furry - I've no idea what his real name is. It never occurred to me to ask.

Those I knew professionally found it most amusing when they met my friends. I'd never allowed them to shorten my name, yet here was everyone using a fun one.

I had several nicknames conferred on me during my working life; from "Reynard" as a young squaddie through to "TCH" (short for, That C*** Hardy) when I was at the Home Office. My wife, except for when she is cross with me (when she calls me by my Christian name) never refers to me by anything than my surname.

Is anyone in the UK genuinely in poverty, by any international measure?

Only having an iPhone 5 when your neighbour has an iPhone 6 isn't poverty.

surbiton said:

bigjohnowls said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.

No i dont but New Labour will also be criticised in Chilcot though I imagine.

I don't see how New Labour as a whole will be criticised. It was Bliar's project assisted by Straw and Hoon. Others just kept their heads down.

Most New Labour MPs voted for it didnt they?

Interesting timeline here:
https://twitter.com/b_judah/with_replies

Basically he's saying France and Germany (especially France) are plotting to box British politicians into giving up passporting in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration. If they make this offer publicly it will be hard for British politicians to resist because the voters will think they're just screwing the bankers.

The British financial industry then gets shared out among Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam.