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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months
To have publicly lost the confidence of three-quarters of your MPs would normally be regarded as a resigning matter. In 1995, John Major set himself the private target in his party’s leadership election of 65% of his MPs, aware that without a substantial lead his authority would be terminally damaged.
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OT (already) the American conventions start next month so keep an eye on the VP nominees markets.
Republicans 18 to 21 July
Democrats 25 to 28 July
* Corbyn quits and endorses McDonnell (*)
* McDonnell runs and wins
* McDonnell proposes a fairly centrist manifesto for the next election, since they won't have any money anyhow and everyone will be busy arguing about Brexit
* Right gradually crumbles away instead of defecting, left consolidates grip on NEC and constituency parties
* McDonnell does left-wing things
(*) Or some other left-winger, somebody young and feisty would be better but I can't think of anyone specific.
The alternative is that the election is not called early and the PLP effectively creates a new party that has the time to build support, develop an organisation and get some money. I suspect it will attract a fair amount of that, especially as it would become the official opposition. However, when the election does come, both official Labour and whatever the new party is called (the Co-operative party?) will be wiped out and millions of voters will have no representation at all.
Of course, if Corbyn were to stand down, all this could be prevented. A new candidate on the left could stand against candidates from the centre and the right, and Labour members would get to choose who they wanted to be in charge. The very high probability is that everyone would accept the result and rally around the new leader.
Obviously, that is not going to happen.
Labour is finished.
Or Owls, because owls come in Parliaments, and Labour has a tradition of Owls.
That's an extraordinary tally - does anyone remember how many new £3 members signed up this time last year?
IIRC the deadline was during early August 2015, so they're still eligible to vote for him again if they choose to. Jezza has also announced that the scheme will be open again. Does he have this power/can engineer it via the NEC?
I never thought it was possible to top him winning last year - but if he does it again - as a squatter, just wowzer.
0635 hours - Seen entering North Korean Consulate in Broxtowe ....
Everyone isn't accepting the result and rallying around the new leader
The petition is hosted by 38degrees.org - left-liberal troll central and essential a Child of Greenpeace - and they have a mailing list of about 3 million whom they mail-shot to sign petitions.
What amazes me is how together the Tory party seems. Labour will find healing hard without splitting.
Labour as it stands must face going bust I guess too.
To be honest I actually don't know if the name (as that is really what is being fought over) is worth the pain. After last Thursday I don't think the word labour has the 10-20,000 benefit it had before.
Governments (of any colour) should be challenged on their decisions and held to account for their actions. An Opposition that is constantly fighting among themselves is not worthy of that name. Hopefully the SDP2 can quickly form and take up the official Opposition role with the support of most constituencies and their resources.
The worst case scenario of course, is that half way through the chaos the govt calls a general election to get a more workable majority.
During the leadership race the challengers should explain their visions on two things:-
1) How they will heal the divide exposed by the referendum. The white vs.non white divide, the extremism divide (Islamic and far right), the generation divide; future cuts should happen slower than planned now and more evenly, the class divide- how to make sure social mobility returns to Britain and people from working class backgrounds have similar opportunities as their wealthier counterparts, this is not a redistribution of income rather a redistribution of chances. The divide between the nations need to be healed to save the union by devolving power that is returning to Westminster to the the nations and London, get on with devolution to the big city REGIONS of England, the divide between the capital and the English provinces needs to be healed by rebalancing the economy from financial services to manufacturing -easier said than done but must happen.
2) We need to make sure Britain has the most competitive economy in Europe:
Lower corporation tax by closing tax loopholes, maybe lower corporation taxes for manufacturing firms, an immigration system that makes fucking sense but doesn't drive down wages, less regulation (might not be possible depending on what trade deal we have with Europe), trade deals with our interests at heart.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/677406/EU-referendum-debate-Hilary-Benn-Remain-Leave-campaign-Brexit-European-Union
If they choose him again, what are the MPs going to do? Kiss and make up? Ignore him? Elect their own PLP leader?
Corbyn is pretty useless, but frankly are the alternatives that much better? They've no policy platform at all - no work's been done to set an agenda. They've spent 9 months bickering and bad-mouthing rather than coming up with a credible alternative.
I can't understand their timing at all.
Both sides have lazy, unthinking zealots, who can't be bothered to contemplate why 50% (+/- 2%) of the population disagreed with their infallible conclusion.
Not with Farage as leader they wont, or not in large numbers. Farage is bonkers and dangerous.
Not doing the SDP thing is ingrained in the Labour right and centre DNA. So if Corbyn does win, I doubt it will split. Whereas Corbyn and co, who do not carry SDP baggage, could easily walk. Complex.
Strikes me as a very good reason as why there won't be an early election. Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake, etc. etc.
I think an election before we've left the EU is a terrible idea, but then I was Leave voter.
Re Corbyn.
The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.
They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.
"New Improved Labour"
- Hodge had the Plot 1 coup planned with her vote of no confidence letter, and she knew about the other mass resignations. Plot 2 leaked out.
- That forced Benn to tell Jezza he'd no confidence in him/got sacked - Plot Two was kick started.
Plots 1 & 2 have messed each other up, rather than increased the pressure. Hence why we are where we are.
I am not sure, even if they succeeded, that Corbyn would step down
But if Corbyn wins again, Labour will undoubtedly split.
The only sensible option for them is to resign the whip en masse and take the libdem whip, making Farron leader of the opposition.
With most of them there is barely a cigarette paper between them and the libdems anyway and if the libdems had 150+ members they might also attract defections from tory remainer wets which would destablise the government and force an early election in which there was a genuine conservative / liberal choice for the electorate and a plausible scenario of libdems being the biggest party (bit not obviously a majority) as the rest of the electorate splits between tory, rump labour, ukip and snp.
One of the great problems caused by the rise of the labour party in the early 1900s was that we had a country steeped in liberalism but no hope of power for liberals in the liberal party. As a result many many joined the tories and labour resulting by the 21st century in all three being in reality different shades of liberal.
This consensus has now been blown apart, labour was a party of mass unskilled labour, brought into existence by industrial technology and now being snuffed out by technology no longer needing mass labour, and it is high time that liberals in all three parties recognise what they are and go home.
Very unappealing
The “working man (and woman) in the North" surely want a) decent working conditions and b) decency and stability in public life. It’s the Methodism side of the founding fathers. It’s not unreasonable to look at the country around them and be upset by many of the changes they see.
What WWC voters have to be careful of is being hoodwinked by a “defensive” ideology, overrideing their need for opportunity, as the working class Protestants in N. Ireland were by the Ulster Unionists.
But if you take a very strong Labour area like Doncaster with Ed Miliband as the MP you find a 69% leave vote. Traditional Labour voters rebelled against an open door immigration plan which directly and consistently reduced their wages, threatened their employment, resulted in them obtaining poorer working conditions and benefited the class that those Labour MPs either come from or aspire to instead of them.
This is not just a problem with a leadership challenge to Corbyn. What are the chances of the New Improved Labour party winning Doncaster on an unequivocally pro-EU ticket, possibly committed to never triggering the Article 50 procedure? I think, like their initials, they are NIL.
Firstly Sturgeon should not be treating with foreign powers
Secondly a leader of a (nominally) friendly nation* shouldn't be fomenting secession of part of the UK
(* I know he isn't, but he's at that level)
The Labour Party Constitution (clause 7) is absolutely clear. I haven't checked the SNP constitution, but presumably they have no issue with their leader not being an MP and doesn't require that the leader of the party is automatically the leader of the parliamentary party.
Is it similar for expulsion?
One question: since Dave's renegotiated deal is now dead, doesn't that mean that for the time being the UK continues to have a veto on further integrationist measures by the Eurozone? I seem to recall that giving up that veto was part of the deal.
If so - and on the assumption that the Eurozone will want to get on with integration (Italian banks have been in trouble for some time as is Germany's main bank) - does that not give the UK some leverage?
And now to breakfast and deciding what to do this glorious day.
(a) There shall be a leader and deputy leader of the party who shall, ex-officio, be leader and deputy leader of the PLP.
I agree that if they formally split you would have a new leader and a new LOTO.
Similarly if enough of them resigned the whip without forming a new party then you'd have an argument that the SNP should become the official opposition.
But while they are just a rebel faction within the PLP that ignores the authority of their leader then I don't see how the Speaker intervenes.
I don't think this revolt is predominantly about Europe. It was going to have to happen this summer to prevent changes to the LP constitution at conference. It was simply nessecary to get the referendum out of the way first.
Eagle has had some good commons performances. Watson should stick as Deputy, or there is a risk of Corbynistas taking that post too.