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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months

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  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MaxPB said:

    Wanderer said:

    Indigo said:

    The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone

    Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.
    Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).
    No, the mistake was in even thinking about the idea of such a budget. The chancellor has increased his borrowing by £180bn in the last six years over his original target, the idea that he would choose the hard option this one time when asked to do so is rubbish.
    Well, you certainly haven't heard the last of the phrase.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Andrew Neil going softly softly with Emily Thornberry, the new shadow Foreign Sec.

    He judges the mood correctly. We all have sympathy for the honourable Corbynites.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121

    Harman's called for Corbyn to go. Bloody hell.

    Bloody Tory
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142

    Harman's called for Corbyn to go. Bloody hell.

    What do you mean

    Hardly a surprise is it?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,108
    Surely the first Tory to actually act like a Tory and say they'll invoke art 50 wins ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,492
    Apparently Chilcott is being put charge of negotiating Brexit, and it is hoped the process will be completed in time for the 3020 General Election.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @TheScreamingEagles LOL!

    @bigjohnowls Were you expecting Harman to intervene? I wasn't.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    From the Spectator:

    "Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."

    There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.

    What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.
    Miss P., It was quite a common nickname in the Northumberland Fusiliers (later 3rd Battalion RRF) for chaps whose first name was Tony or Anthony. I think a bit like someone whose surname was Miller was almost invariably called Dusty.

    As an aside are nicknames used as much as they were? When I was young everyone had a nickname and was seldom referred to as anything else. For example, I served for two years with a bloke known as "Frub", it was only at his leaving do when I was chatting with his wife that I found out his real name was Stephen.
    My nickname is Flip/Flippy - everyone who knows me well uses one of them. I didn't notice how odd it sounds until my husband called to me down an aisle in Tescos. Even my mum called me Flippy.

    It came from my bigger brothers inability to pronounce my Christian name. I'd a good friend who's nickname was Furry - I've no idea what his real name is. It never occurred to me to ask.

    Those I knew professionally found it most amusing when they met my friends. I'd never allowed them to shorten my name, yet here was everyone using a fun one.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    After all this will Corbyn count as an ex Leader or will be be unnumbered like the War Doctor ?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    MaxPB said:

    Wanderer said:

    Indigo said:

    The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone

    Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.
    Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).
    No, the mistake was in even thinking about the idea of such a budget. The chancellor has increased his borrowing by £180bn in the last six years over his original target, the idea that he would choose the hard option this one time when asked to do so is rubbish.
    Well quite. Osborne's not done a bad job treading the line between spending cuts and growth levels, but his borrowing targets have all disappointed on the high side. To say that the genuine austerity (actual reductions in spending as opposed to reductions in spending growth) will only start now looks petty and vindictive.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142
    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Labour rebels don't have a credible candidate.

    Madness to rebel without having decided on a leader.

    Lack of planning/competence by the rebels.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Neil schooling Thornberry on the difference between "money supply" and fiscal economics.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,094
    McCluskey is back from Vegas. Says all the plotting is pointless.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    I'm honestly confused by Labour at the moment. Who is going to stand opposite Dave at 12pm?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    Lady Nugee trying her best to talk down the economy on BBC2
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Or maybe Labour could pretend the Corbyn Leadership was like the Doctor Who TV movie ? Spend a few years arguing about Paul McGann's canonicity as a proxy for his awfulness ?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142

    Labour rebels don't have a credible candidate.

    Madness to rebel without having decided on a leader.

    Lack of planning/competence by the rebels.

    Oh dear perhaps SO/JAB can come up with one.

    "anone but Corbyn" doesnt count as an answer
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    So, do we know whom the Speaker will call as the LotO at PMQs?

    Maybe JC will announce his departure.
    Corbyn answers to the Labour party members not the House of Commons.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    @jimwaterson: Roman emperors used to entertain the public with grizzly execution by lions. In 2016 we send Jeremy Corbyn to PMQs with 600 MPs against him.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,019
    At this rate, Sheridan Bucket will be in the shadow cabinet.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,019
    edited June 2016

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams? I am glad I never had her defending my human rights, I would have probably ended up in Guantanamo Bay.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142

    @TheScreamingEagles LOL!

    @bigjohnowls Were you expecting Harman to intervene? I wasn't.

    Of course.

    Next Wednesday is nearly here the Blairites cannot afford Corbyn to be in charge then.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,094
    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly confused by Labour at the moment. Who is going to stand opposite Dave at 12pm?

    Burnham. Unless he changes his mind. Or Robertson if the speaker reads Erskine May the SNP way.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    @jimwaterson: Roman emperors used to entertain the public with grizzly execution by lions. In 2016 we send Jeremy Corbyn to PMQs with 600 MPs against him.

    I don't know about that, the government benches will be crossing their fingers hoping he manages to weather the storm.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    To vote for May?
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Fantastic quote from David Davis on Daily Politics :

    "We're currently producing more history than we can consume"
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    Family connections. Look at who her dad was.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently Chilcott is being put charge of negotiating Brexit, and it is hoped the process will be completed in time for the 3020 General Election.

    Lord Saville shurely?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    From the Spectator:

    "Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."

    There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.

    What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.
    Miss P., It was quite a common nickname in the Northumberland Fusiliers (later 3rd Battalion RRF) for chaps whose first name was Tony or Anthony. I think a bit like someone whose surname was Miller was almost invariably called Dusty.

    As an aside are nicknames used as much as they were? When I was young everyone had a nickname and was seldom referred to as anything else. For example, I served for two years with a bloke known as "Frub", it was only at his leaving do when I was chatting with his wife that I found out his real name was Stephen.
    My nickname is Flip/Flippy - everyone who knows me well uses one of them. I didn't notice how odd it sounds until my husband called to me down an aisle in Tescos. Even my mum called me Flippy.

    It came from my bigger brothers inability to pronounce my Christian name. I'd a good friend who's nickname was Furry - I've no idea what his real name is. It never occurred to me to ask.

    Those I knew professionally found it most amusing when they met my friends. I'd never allowed them to shorten my name, yet here was everyone using a fun one.
    Flip/Flippy ? But it preceded you changing from a Blairite to a Cameroon to a Brexiteer......
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams? I am glad I never had her defending my human rights, I would have probably ended up in Guantanamo Bay.
    Is she a ' real ' QC or is she using the honourific all MP lawyers get ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,094
    So Speaker tells them to stop chatting during questions. And then they immediately start chatting again.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,786
    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
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    DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 69
    Can anyone tell me how someone with a CV as thin as Stephen Crabb's could possibly be qualified to be prime minister??
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,492

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    MaxPB said:

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    To vote for May?
    ABB
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    McCluskey is back from Vegas. Says all the plotting is pointless.

    Not the most ringing of endorsements.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    MaxPB said:

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    To vote for May?
    ABB
    Boris v Fox?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Still he is correct. 60% of labour voters voted Remain.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,094
    MaxPB said:

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    To vote for May?
    Davis back in Cabinet?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,936
    If I were a Labour MP, I'd be doing a hell of a lot of round robin with my colleagues before nominating a candidate - someone willing to be leftish enough but who you could see as PM and with enough support to get on the candidacy. The Eagle bandwagon is not one I would be getting on straight away.

    Supporting Syria may not be a problem now, you can simply note the position taken in this article (which itself pre-empts parts of Benn's speech):
    http://labourlist.org/2015/10/we-must-remember-that-syria-is-not-iraq-and-build-a-plan-for-action/

    Supporting Iraq, especially from within the Shadow Cabinet, will be a cause of far more difficulty and expect much wailing that 'Blair hid the facts from us' from previous loyalists as those people try to hold their own.

    Technically, I agree with the Corbynites that the correct way of doing this was by a leadership election, but politically the shenanigans of the last few days have drawn the stain of disloyalty from anyone wanting to now stand, which I think was exactly the point. Hilary Benn effectively has taken the role of the Bounty Kitchen Roll in this coup.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    rcs1000 said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

    The Times expected yesterday's rally to be a dead cat bounce.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121

    MaxPB said:

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    To vote for May?
    ABB
    Boris v Fox?
    I'm s(p)oiling my ballot paper in those circumstances
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Labour rebels don't have a credible candidate.

    Madness to rebel without having decided on a leader.

    Lack of planning/competence by the rebels.

    That's my view. They've had 9 months to gestate one - and still it's a mad scramble to find one/anyone but Corbyn.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Still he is correct. 60% of labour voters voted Remain.
    40% of them didn't.

    Or to put it another way:

    Conservative party = split > Conservative voters = split
    Labour party = almost united > Labour voters = split.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    @BBCNormanS: Team @aburnhammp deny claims he's set to quit shadow cabinet
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142
    Lab benches full.

    Splitters have turned up
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    At least Corbyn won't ask about the posted workers directive this week (as it is now a moot point)
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,106
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    The Corbyn cult is quite interesting. I can't help but think that for years this man has been ignored, an old school firebrand, isolated, making his own meetings with his comradely chums equally despised, laughed and sneered at by his Parliamentary colleagues, voted Parliamentary beard of the year as a piss take.
    Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.

    I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.

    That's over-analysis (to put it mildly - there is actually nobody in politics who I'd compare with an alleged murderer, not even a BNP leader). He doesn't loathe anyone (less than most people here, I'd think) - it's one of his attractive qualities, and widely reciprocated, as acknowledged in many of the resignation letters. Rebelling colleagues generally think he's ineffective and inflexible, not evil or mad. He merely sees himself as the representative of a strand of political thinking, obliged to do his best by it.
    Nick- I am not calling him a mass murderer, or evil, I am just trying to rationalise why he is staying against this kind of opposition. Most politicians suffer from some kind of narcissism...it is what draws them into politics, a bit like asbergers draws people to computers or Dr Who.

    Brown was a classic narcissist, but even Brown would have been long gone facing this kind of opposition.

    One hopes that Corbyn is simply playing out a (McDonnell) strategy to get an anointed successor onto a ballot paper, and they are playing for time. Then I'll be wrong.

    If not Nick, and Corbyn intends to run again, and destroy the Labour Party while he's at it, it is because he believes that he is the only one fighting a righteous cause against all the non believers. The proof will be in what he does next.

    Incidentally, David Blanket yesterday was saying as much as I'm saying here. Maybe the comparison to Hamilton was a slightly OTT.
    He may just see it as a matter of principle. He got a huge mandate from the party. The opinion polls aren't great but he's in the game so to speak. He's been there less than a year. He may well be doomed but I can easily believe that he feels he hasn't been given a fair chance.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    Deafbloke said:

    Can anyone tell me how someone with a CV as thin as Stephen Crabb's could possibly be qualified to be prime minister??

    Nope!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,984
    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''

    No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.

    Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?

    When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?

    I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:

    If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.

    The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".
    The financial passport is probably gone, or at least the ability to do financial transactions in London on the same basis as elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. If we do nothing financial institutions will assume they are better off moving. Given the inevitable, is it worth trying to get some limits on immigration while salvaging what we can of the test of the single market? To an approximation we will take what we are offered by the EU. It's unlikely to be so bad we prefer nothing at all, and we don't have a lot of choices now we have rejected full membership.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,108

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2016
    @bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Still he is correct. 60% of labour voters voted Remain.
    That is true. But Brown's point that any one group 'delivered' Brexit is characteristic nonsense. Personally I think of how different it might be if only there were more UKIP Remainers.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142
    Watson by Jezzas side.

    Does he have a knife?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    edited June 2016
    Kind words to the PM from Alistair Carmichael.

    Cameron seems very relaxed, the burdens of office coming to an end.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Leadsom still in the running:
    "Andrea Leadsom has the tentative support of up to 60 Leave MPs if she runs. A group of them met in her office yesterday. At 6 pm Boris turned up and the MPs left, Johnson and Leadsom then had a ten minute one-on-one summit to try to agree terms of her joining the ticket. No deal was reached, Andrea is playing hardball and has also had talks with Theresa May’s team…"

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/gove-chief-negotiator-boris-leadsom-summit-priti-rumours/
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Watson by Jezzas side.

    Does he have a knife?

    You have to hang up your swords on entry to the House I believe.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    @BBCNormanS: Team @aburnhammp deny claims he's set to quit shadow cabinet

    LOL - hands up who's got a constituency that loves Corbyn!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    Family connections. Look at who her dad was.
    Her parents divorced when she was 7. She was brought up on a council estate. I don't think that helped. Her husband is a High Court judge.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Corbyn going to Somme memorial on Friday...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142

    @bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.

    No i dont but New Labour will also be criticised in Chilcot though I imagine.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News

    0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".

    Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
    Happy to report that my export book sales have increased significantly since the fall in the Dollar exchange rate.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Good on Corbyn for tribute to Mayhew. Cameron dropped a bollock there.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''

    No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.

    Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?

    When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?

    I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:

    If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.

    The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".
    The financial passport is probably gone, or at least the ability to do financial transactions in London on the same basis as elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. If we do nothing financial institutions will assume they are better off moving. Given the inevitable, is it worth trying to get some limits on immigration while salvaging what we can of the test of the single market? To an approximation we will take what we are offered by the EU. It's unlikely to be so bad we prefer nothing at all, and we don't have a lot of choices now we have rejected full membership.
    I don't think it's gone if we keep free movement, it will be the price to pay if we choose to have no free movement.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Looks like Boris the coward is missing PMQs.

    What's he afraid of?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142
    PMQs much better so far.

    Relative calm so far.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    RodCrosby said:

    Corbyn going to Somme memorial on Friday...

    I believe it's traditional in some parts of the world to launch a coup while the leader is physically not there to stop it.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.
    Labour got less than 60% in Sunderland in the GE2015. So virtually all the others could have voted Leave. A quarter of Labour voters need vote Leave to get the June 23 result.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News

    0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".

    Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
    Happy to report that my export book sales have increased significantly since the fall in the Dollar exchange rate.
    :smiley:

    Good stuff, Sir.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Fenster said:

    @BBCNormanS: Team @aburnhammp deny claims he's set to quit shadow cabinet

    LOL - hands up who's got a constituency that loves Corbyn!
    But what about Falconer?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    Family connections. Look at who her dad was.
    Her parents divorced when she was 7. She was brought up on a council estate. I don't think that helped. Her husband is a High Court judge.</blockquote

    Brought up in a council estate with that county accent , give me a break. Two weeks max.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    "Paid down the deficit" AARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

    Prime Minister, you know that's misleading.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Looks like Boris the coward is missing PMQs.

    What's he afraid of?

    He does not like to be booo'ed.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    rcs1000 said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

    The Times expected yesterday's rally to be a dead cat bounce.
    I did too, clearly it wasn't.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Who's the lady sat next to Jezza?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    LOL: to be fair, I was reading the Bloomberg morning briefing on the way to work this morning, and it said something along the lines of "Futures point to early declines in Sterling, FTSE". And then the market opened a percent higher, and has moved in an upward direction since.

    The Times expected yesterday's rally to be a dead cat bounce.
    I did too, clearly it wasn't.
    Not a traditional one, anyway.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    @bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.

    No i dont but New Labour will also be criticised in Chilcot though I imagine.
    I don't see how New Labour as a whole will be criticised. It was Bliar's project assisted by Straw and Hoon. Others just kept their heads down.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Who's the lady sat next to Jezza?

    Kate Osamor
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,169
    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently Chilcott is being put charge of negotiating Brexit, and it is hoped the process will be completed in time for the 3020 General Election.

    And per the twitters, "Crabb says division in UK and party must be healed before Article 50 triggered."

    They're just going to keep on making increasingly tough and strident demands but never actually leave.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,376

    David Davis backs Boris for leader.

    Well that's convinced me

    If David Davis is a Borista, hard to see Fox getting anywhere close to a challenge.

    Yay!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    Corbyn going to Somme memorial on Friday...

    Well he does know what a bloodbath looks like.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,493
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.
    As Chairman of the Wakefield and Hemsworth Conservative Association, I look forward to gains in both seats on that basis.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,388
    Sandpit said:

    "Paid down the deficit" AARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

    Prime Minister, you know that's misleading.

    Well, they have reduced it, just not eradicated it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,164
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:
    Hasn't he seen the map of who voted for what and where...?
    Big Tory majority in Sunderland I hear.
    In Northern working class seats, (or Luton for that matter) it was probably something like 50/50 Labour, 70/30 Conservative, 95/5 UKIP, that delivered big Leave majorities. In places like Islington, Labour were probably splitting 90/10 Remain.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016

    surbiton said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    Family connections. Look at who her dad was.
    Her parents divorced when she was 7. She was brought up on a council estate. I don't think that helped. Her husband is a High Court judge.
    It was Guildford mind. Andrew Neil's point about the pound was equally stupid. The pound is at €1.21, having fallen from €1.28. Just because it is "rising" today does not take into account how much it has fallen.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,786
    PMQs feels like a funeral. Cameron and Corbyn both going through the motions.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,376
    Corbyn going on insecurity of work... What a wag.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    From the Spectator:

    "Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."

    There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.

    What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.
    Miss P., It was quite a common nickname in the Northumberland Fusiliers (later 3rd Battalion RRF) for chaps whose first name was Tony or Anthony. I think a bit like someone whose surname was Miller was almost invariably called Dusty.

    As an aside are nicknames used as much as they were? When I was young everyone had a nickname and was seldom referred to as anything else. For example, I served for two years with a bloke known as "Frub", it was only at his leaving do when I was chatting with his wife that I found out his real name was Stephen.
    My nickname is Flip/Flippy - everyone who knows me well uses one of them. I didn't notice how odd it sounds until my husband called to me down an aisle in Tescos. Even my mum called me Flippy.

    It came from my bigger brothers inability to pronounce my Christian name. I'd a good friend who's nickname was Furry - I've no idea what his real name is. It never occurred to me to ask.

    Those I knew professionally found it most amusing when they met my friends. I'd never allowed them to shorten my name, yet here was everyone using a fun one.
    I had several nicknames conferred on me during my working life; from "Reynard" as a young squaddie through to "TCH" (short for, That C*** Hardy) when I was at the Home Office. My wife, except for when she is cross with me (when she calls me by my Christian name) never refers to me by anything than my surname.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    ''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''

    No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.

    Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?

    When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?

    I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:

    If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.

    The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".
    The financial passport is probably gone, or at least the ability to do financial transactions in London on the same basis as elsewhere in Europe will be restricted. If we do nothing financial institutions will assume they are better off moving. Given the inevitable, is it worth trying to get some limits on immigration while salvaging what we can of the test of the single market? To an approximation we will take what we are offered by the EU. It's unlikely to be so bad we prefer nothing at all, and we don't have a lot of choices now we have rejected full membership.
    I don't think it's gone if we keep free movement, it will be the price to pay if we choose to have no free movement.
    David Davis suggested free movement is dead all over the EU. That sounds possible.

    In any event, free movement will have to be a red line for the UK. It's too big an issue for UK voters.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,387
    edited June 2016
    Is anyone in the UK genuinely in poverty, by any international measure?

    Only having an iPhone 5 when your neighbour has an iPhone 6 isn't poverty.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Bloody hell Dave
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,142
    surbiton said:

    @bigjohnowls Surely you don't believe at this stage only Blairites are against Corbyn? Blairites have been a fairly small group in Labour since 2005-06, yet huge swathes of the party want Corbyn to resign.

    No i dont but New Labour will also be criticised in Chilcot though I imagine.
    I don't see how New Labour as a whole will be criticised. It was Bliar's project assisted by Straw and Hoon. Others just kept their heads down.
    Most New Labour MPs voted for it didnt they?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Golly, Jeremy Quin is wearing an electric blue suit. Where did he buy that horror?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,169
    edited June 2016
    Interesting timeline here:
    https://twitter.com/b_judah/with_replies

    Basically he's saying France and Germany (especially France) are plotting to box British politicians into giving up passporting in exchange for the ability to restrict immigration. If they make this offer publicly it will be hard for British politicians to resist because the voters will think they're just screwing the bankers.

    The British financial industry then gets shared out among Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,388
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Emily Thornberry doing a great job on DP

    Thornberry: Pound is falling
    Neil: Actually pound is rising today.
    Thornberry: Yeah but shares are falling
    Neil: No shares are rising too, now above five year average.
    How did this women ever pass the law exams?
    Family connections. Look at who her dad was.
    Her parents divorced when she was 7. She was brought up on a council estate. I don't think that helped. Her husband is a High Court judge.
    It was Guildford mind. Andrew Neil's point about the pound was equally stupid. The pound is at €1.21, having fallen from €1.28. Just because it is "rising" today does not take into account how much it has fallen.
    Bellfields is as much a dump as any estate up north.
This discussion has been closed.