politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months
Comments
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As they say on Thunderbirds, "anything could happen in the next half hour"tyson said:
Hunt is by far the smoothest operator in the Tory ranks, and carries Cameron's sense of reassurance and charm. If I was a Tory, I'd be stuck between him and May who could well be our Angela Merkel with heels (and I mean that in a good way).rottenborough said:Will Hunt stand? If he wins I am in for a massive payday!
I'd know intuitively Boris would be a failure, and Crabb- is he jockeying for position, or does he really think he'll win? I thought Ed Miliband entered the 2010 contest to get a prominent post in his brother's cabinet- that is until McCluskey intervened.0 -
The markets are permanent leader.surbiton said:
If that is true, Watson is Leader straightaway.DanSmith said:
Will be over very soon then.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
I wish I was the son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver, coupled with my working class Northerner roots I could have been Dave's replacementScrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Mr. M, I've been doing a modicum of work!
Also, one might cite Scipio Aemillianus, who was made twice consul under-age (age limit was pretty high, to be fair) because they desperately needed him to sort out Spain. The likes of Marius was an upstart sponsored by the Metelli, a clan largely forgotten (they had huge success but did so between the Third Punic and Jugurthine Wars which isn't a period that closely followed), but whom he soon eclipsed.0 -
Javid is the son of a bus driver.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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"We have to make it work" says a guy that doesn't even live here.Indigo said:
Newsflash: "Remain" and "Leave" don't exist anymore, the public voted, now we have to make what they voted for work. Or I guess you can sit there crying and throwing your toys around.logical_song said:
Just factually incorrect.Indigo said:
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.logical_song said:
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.dugarbandier said:
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.Indigo said:
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.dugarbandier said:
that's not what it said on the ballotblackburn63 said:last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
You are clutching at straws, Britain is worse off.
I see that you concede that Leave 'lied massively'.0 -
Yes, if Boris were to unequivocally come out in favour of the EEA and free movement with some EU fig leaf then he may come out on top, if he goes for fully out I don't see how he will get support among the membership, only around half of the leave Tories I know voted leave because of immigration (probably the half that are supporting Boris at the moment).TheScreamingEagles said:
I've spoke to two last night, my old constituency chairman, hardcore Leaver said he'd back anyone but Boris, even Ken Clarke.MaxPB said:
Have you done any straw polls of members yet? I've done a quick one, Boris has half of the leave people on his side and none of the remain people, I don't see how he can win on those numbers. This is in London, so it may not be representative.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm still a Tory.Slackbladder said:
i'm confused are you still tory, or quit yet?TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/748092140618657792
If Boris becomes leader, I shall intend to be a bastard, inside the tent, pissing in
A remainer said being a Brexiteer come mid August might be an awful position to hold if the economic news is poor because of Brexit, so he might go for May, but he thinks only a Brexiteer PM is the only one who can sell an EEA deal to the Leavers in the country.0 -
Stick to your guns Jezza!rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
There is. Only 30-35 years ago.David_Evershed said:
There is no precedent for Labour MPs being so out of touch with the membership of their party.Jobabob said:
Indeed. It really is quite something how the far left Corbynites are tried to brush off a rebellion of this scale as s wrinkle of history. There is no precedent for a leader staying in such circumstancesdavid_herdson said:
So then they will have to walk and either defect or set up their own party. What marks this rebellion out so far is the unity of purpose: the resignations and then the VoNC. Would that carry forward to the ultimate rebellion were Corbyn re-elected? It would have its own momentum. Providing that a critical mass went, then those who stayed would be ever more vulnerable to the increasing relative power of the left, so increasing the incentive to jump.bigjohnowls said:A solution to Labours problems could be.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they0 -
Apologies earlier for my assessment of Corbyn if this is genuinely true and he is being egged on by his militant clique. It would fit much more with Nick Palmer's assessment of Jeremy who of course knows him very well.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
Tories are fretting already.GIN1138 said:
Stick to your guns Jezza!rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
Doubtful that Hodges has the inside track on this.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The markets are permanent leader.surbiton said:
If that is true, Watson is Leader straightaway.DanSmith said:
Will be over very soon then.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
Labour don't need to choose a candidate who they feel would be a good leader for the country, or for their electability, or for anything. They just need someone who will be best able to get rid of Corbyn. Then they can pick a sensible leader at their leisure.0
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Bingo!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Javid is the son of a bus driver.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Jeremy man. The movement is bigger than you. I support the new direction away from continuity Blairism you've valiantly and incompetently tried to take us is. But the show is over.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.
Go. Please.0 -
You and May have similar shoe taste too I gatherTheScreamingEagles said:
I wish I was the son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver, coupled with my working class Northerner roots I could have been Dave's replacementScrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Bollocks.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Absolutely!TheScreamingEagles said:... but he thinks only a Brexiteer PM is the only one who can sell an EEA deal to the Leavers in the country.
A Brexiteer like Boris/Gove can negotiate EEA-membership and then put that forward as the exit they have negotiated after campaigning to exit.
A Remainer pushing EEA would be treated with scorn of trying to ignore the voters of the Referendum.
It's an "only Nixon could go to China" moment.0 -
Crabb vs May in the final two? I think Boris is going to do a Portillo here.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So they think they have got the Catholic, Welsh, Pakistani, Friends of Israel and Bus drivers on their side. Seems also rugby players.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Javid is the son of a bus driver.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Labour can't afford the cash for an election so would not vote for a general election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
The SNP would not increase their numbers with an election so would abstain.
So the five year term is solid for now.
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I've just helped to destroy the Tories best electoral asset since The Blessed Margaret. What makes you think I'm a Tory?surbiton said:
Tories are fretting already.GIN1138 said:
Stick to your guns Jezza!rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
If Javid wasn't a bunch of tick-boxes, no one would be considering him. He's awful on the telly.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
I detest identity politics of every kind.0 -
Boris has 100 backers according to Guido. But I wouldn't rule it out, he is more of a marmite candidate than may be apparent.DanSmith said:
Crabb vs May in the final two? I think Boris is going to do a Portillo here.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So far this year I got right a 2016 referendum led by Boris with a no vote. I tipped Boris for the top then Crabb as a 2016 John Major.
If I had a wife who wouldn't castrate me if I started betting, I'd be in the £££ by now0 -
The Progressive Democrats will get huge donations. I even know some of them. But looks like it will be the Labour Party.David_Evershed said:
Labour can't afford the cash for an election so would not vote for a general election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
The SNP would not increase their numbers with an election so would abstain.
So the five year term is solid for now.0 -
I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:taffys said:''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''
No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.
Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?
When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?
If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.
The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".
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Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...0
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They also, according to a panel discussion I heard on Monday, forecast UK GDP falling from this year's 2.3% to 0.3%. I'm not sure of the assumptions used to reach the latter. In any event, rising interest rates in those circumstances would be unhelpful.rottenborough said:Bank of America sees UK inflation at 4% in a year or so. Will BoE raise rates to counter?
Brexit will look even more daft when millions of homeowners who've never known a different mortgage rate get hit.
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There's been a surprising amount of money backing Stephen Crabb. He was last matched at 10.5, which is around where he's been for most of the last day.
He doesn't exactly have much of a profile yet - I doubt whether most members of the public could pick him out of an identity parade.0 -
Leopard skin ?Scrapheap_as_was said:
You and May have similar shoe taste too I gatherTheScreamingEagles said:
I wish I was the son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver, coupled with my working class Northerner roots I could have been Dave's replacementScrapheap_as_was said:
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Looking forward to £350million extra per week to the NHS, reduced immigration and British economy soaring then.Indigo said:
Newsflash: "Remain" and "Leave" don't exist anymore, the public voted, now we have to make what they voted for work. Or I guess you can sit there crying and throwing your toys around.logical_song said:
Just factually incorrect.Indigo said:
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.logical_song said:
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.dugarbandier said:
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.Indigo said:
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.dugarbandier said:
that's not what it said on the ballotblackburn63 said:last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
You are clutching at straws, Britain is worse off.
I see that you concede that Leave 'lied massively'.0 -
Crabb looking far too pleased with himself in press conference.0
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Hunt has a peculiar manner - it's very stiff. Not as odd as Morgan - her doll eyes give me the creeps. She looks like she's had her whole face botoxed. I watched her on Sky this morning and nothing moved bar her mouth.rottenborough said:
As they say on Thunderbirds, "anything could happen in the next half hour"tyson said:
Hunt is by far the smoothest operator in the Tory ranks, and carries Cameron's sense of reassurance and charm. If I was a Tory, I'd be stuck between him and May who could well be our Angela Merkel with heels (and I mean that in a good way).rottenborough said:Will Hunt stand? If he wins I am in for a massive payday!
I'd know intuitively Boris would be a failure, and Crabb- is he jockeying for position, or does he really think he'll win? I thought Ed Miliband entered the 2010 contest to get a prominent post in his brother's cabinet- that is until McCluskey intervened.0 -
ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF USTheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
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Sadly, yes ! But I do not want Blairism back. If he goes, then Labour should ask for a General Election.RochdalePioneers said:
Jeremy man. The movement is bigger than you. I support the new direction away from continuity Blairism you've valiantly and incompetently tried to take us is. But the show is over.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.
Go. Please.0 -
Could it be Crabb in the same way as it was IDS? IDS got to the final 2 simply because he was 'Anyone but Portillo' - and then the members chose 'Anyone but Ken Clarke'.DanSmith said:
Crabb vs May in the final two? I think Boris is going to do a Portillo here.TheScreamingEagles said:
Similarly, the MP's could go 'Anyone but Boris' - which means May + 1 other (either Leadsom or Crabb realistically). The Membership might well then go 'Anyone but May'0 -
Perhaps this and my previous observation have a connection then.TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
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All very interesting but surely the more pressing matter is what he intends to do about Brexit?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
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Wasn't listening to Crabb. Did be really says this? I mean... that's never.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/7480976141434470400 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
Ooooh Madame. I thought you could have turned that into a Boris quip.
I'm following Crabb's press conference on the Guardian. He sounds very impressive.0 -
Do the deal in London, book the deal in Luxembourg. Simples.rcs1000 said:
I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:taffys said:''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''
No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.
Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?
When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?
If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.
The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".0 -
Yes, this is why he won't win. He seems to be a candidate who won't take Britain out of the EU.Wanderer said:Wasn't listening to Crabb. Did be really says this? I mean... that's never.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/7480976141434470400 -
What is he suspected of doing ?AlastairMeeks said:There's been a surprising amount of money backing Stephen Crabb. He was last matched at 10.5, which is around where he's been for most of the last day.
He doesn't exactly have much of a profile yet - I doubt whether most members of the public could pick him out of an identity parade.0 -
It was very interesting, he didn't say he knew how to place a bet, but he knew how to lay a bet.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF USTheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
I'll get Robert to do an IP Lookup again and find out who Stephen Crabb posts as on PB0 -
Voting against (or abstaining) an election would be a vote in favour of keeping the new Tory government in favour. PMQs would be impossible for every opposition party, all the new PM would need to reply is "lets take this to the country and let the public decide, why are you so afraid of letting the public vote" to any and every question. The opposition can't even claim to be "getting on with the job" and so would be a collective laughing stock.David_Evershed said:
Labour can't afford the cash for an election so would not vote for a general election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
The SNP would not increase their numbers with an election so would abstain.
So the five year term is solid for now.0 -
But what has Crabb actually achieved in office? Might he not be a Corbyn of the right; a well-meaning beardie ideologist who proves unable to lead?0
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Pat Glass gone:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago
Members of the shadow cabinet appointed to replace those who resigned are now resigning. Seriously. How much longer.0 -
In other words Boris was faking it - in that at least he is consistent. You can always tell when he's lying - when he opens his mouth.PlatoSaid said:
I disagree - he was doing his best to not be triumphant, and appear humble in victory.logical_song said:
Boris the ‘Brexiter’ looked genuinely frightened, not triumphant, on the Friday morning of the referendum result.Scott_P said:This is the problem for Boris
@RobDotHutton: Call it Clegg's Law Of Politics: even if you didn't actually promise it, if voters think you did, you're stuffed. https://t.co/PkgHxh7G20
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/professor-damien-ridge/we-can-resist-the-brexit-_b_10699998.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&ir=UK+Politics0 -
Mr. Lennon, that seems plausible.
Saw a few minutes of Crabb's declaration. Sajid Javid does seem to be an empty suit to me, a backstory and nothing else. If I were a Conservative, I'd be reluctant to back Crabb knowing we'd have a man who seems unimpressive in the Treasury.0 -
Come on Milne, go back to the Guardian now, it's over.0
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Remaining with intent.surbiton said:
What is he suspected of doing ?AlastairMeeks said:There's been a surprising amount of money backing Stephen Crabb. He was last matched at 10.5, which is around where he's been for most of the last day.
He doesn't exactly have much of a profile yet - I doubt whether most members of the public could pick him out of an identity parade.0 -
Both are rubbish. Half the year is already gone. World commodity prices, if anything will go dow but there will be dollar-induced increase. I cannot believe it will be 4%.matt said:
They also, according to a panel discussion I heard on Monday, forecast UK GDP falling from this year's 2.3% to 0.3%. I'm not sure of the assumptions used to reach the latter. In any event, rising interest rates in those circumstances would be unhelpful.rottenborough said:Bank of America sees UK inflation at 4% in a year or so. Will BoE raise rates to counter?
Brexit will look even more daft when millions of homeowners who've never known a different mortgage rate get hit.0 -
I'm confused - is Stephen Crabb running for leadership of the Lib Dems or the Conservatives ?0
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Endgame???DanSmith said:
Will be over very soon then.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
Yeah an opposition has no choice but to support a new election.Philip_Thompson said:
Voting against (or abstaining) an election would be a vote in favour of keeping the new Tory government in favour. PMQs would be impossible for every opposition party, all the new PM would need to reply is "lets take this to the country and let the public decide, why are you so afraid of letting the public vote" to any and every question. The opposition can't even claim to be "getting on with the job" and so would be a collective laughing stock.David_Evershed said:
Labour can't afford the cash for an election so would not vote for a general election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
The SNP would not increase their numbers with an election so would abstain.
So the five year term is solid for now.0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
Jeremy man. The movement is bigger than you. I support the new direction away from continuity Blairism you've valiantly and incompetently tried to take us is. But the show is over.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.
Go. Please.
The show must go on. For the sake of the membership.
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Sajid is another careerist switcher.rottenborough said:Faisal Islam @faisalislam 4m4 minutes ago
Crabb: Sajid will be an outstanding Chancellor of the Exchequer
Hmm. Not sure about that bit myself, but loving the rugby digs.
As Guido observed "we're not posh" isn't a particular selling point in The Shires.0 -
Miss P., It was quite a common nickname in the Northumberland Fusiliers (later 3rd Battalion RRF) for chaps whose first name was Tony or Anthony. I think a bit like someone whose surname was Miller was almost invariably called Dusty.PlatoSaid said:
What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.John_M said:From the Spectator:
"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."
There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.
As an aside are nicknames used as much as they were? When I was young everyone had a nickname and was seldom referred to as anything else. For example, I served for two years with a bloke known as "Frub", it was only at his leaving do when I was chatting with his wife that I found out his real name was Stephen.0 -
r
valleyboy..TheScreamingEagles said:
It was very interesting, he didn't say he knew how to place a bet, but he knew how to lay a bet.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF USTheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
I'll get Robert to do an IP Lookup again and find out who Stephen Crabb posts as on PB
definitely not me, no sir-ee0 -
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Yup - me too.TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Crabbe, much to my dismay is my MP. Very low profile down this way, unless you are a churchgoer. After leaving school went off the live and work in London (we but was and still is, portrayed as a local boy.
Being as objective as i can, you Tories have far better candidates than Crabbe.0 -
Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.TheScreamingEagles said:The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone
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Glass was in shadow education role for 48 hours during which time the only thing she did was draft a letter to her constituency to say she wouldn't be standing at next GE.
Tom Wolfe once said something along the lines of there's no need to make up fiction, just go out into America and look at what happens.0 -
Does Javid actually bring any votes with him ? He comes across as useless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Lennon, that seems plausible.
Saw a few minutes of Crabb's declaration. Sajid Javid does seem to be an empty suit to me, a backstory and nothing else. If I were a Conservative, I'd be reluctant to back Crabb knowing we'd have a man who seems unimpressive in the Treasury.0 -
He's a fine looking man.AlastairMeeks said:There's been a surprising amount of money backing Stephen Crabb. He was last matched at 10.5, which is around where he's been for most of the last day.
He doesn't exactly have much of a profile yet - I doubt whether most members of the public could pick him out of an identity parade.0 -
Corbyn's going. New Shad Cab quitting.
Falconer will be next.0 -
Really? I suppose you have detailed knowledge of how my finances work, what UK holdings I have, how much I remit to the UK every year and so forth. Or possibly you are flapping your lips.Wanderer said:
"We have to make it work" says a guy that doesn't even live here.Indigo said:
Newsflash: "Remain" and "Leave" don't exist anymore, the public voted, now we have to make what they voted for work. Or I guess you can sit there crying and throwing your toys around.logical_song said:
Just factually incorrect.Indigo said:
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.logical_song said:
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.dugarbandier said:
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.Indigo said:
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.dugarbandier said:
that's not what it said on the ballotblackburn63 said:last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
You are clutching at straws, Britain is worse off.
I see that you concede that Leave 'lied massively'.0 -
Possibly if he has Osborne's backing. He may get the Osborne toady vote.surbiton said:
Does Javid actually bring any votes with him ? He comes across as useless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Lennon, that seems plausible.
Saw a few minutes of Crabb's declaration. Sajid Javid does seem to be an empty suit to me, a backstory and nothing else. If I were a Conservative, I'd be reluctant to back Crabb knowing we'd have a man who seems unimpressive in the Treasury.0 -
Cameroon Tory / Orange Book LibDem / Progress Labour - whats the substantial difference?Pulpstar said:I'm confused - is Stephen Crabb running for leadership of the Lib Dems or the Conservatives ?
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He's not going to win, so we won't find out.SandraM said:But what has Crabb actually achieved in office? Might he not be a Corbyn of the right; a well-meaning beardie ideologist who proves unable to lead?
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Yes but the majority is too small. Needs only a few MPs to scupper any bill. We need a GE pronto.David_Evershed said:
Labour can't afford the cash for an election so would not vote for a general election.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
The SNP would not increase their numbers with an election so would abstain.
So the five year term is solid for now.0 -
Mr. Surbiton, quite agree on Javid.
Mr. Valleyboy, who would you like to become leader?0 -
Not a single Tory front runner has pledged to invoke Article 50.
I assume Fox will.......0 -
I bet he won't. He's resolute.Jobabob said:Corbyn's going. New Shad Cab quitting.
Falconer will be next.0 -
Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).Indigo said:
Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.TheScreamingEagles said:The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone
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What's his majority?valleyboy said:Crabbe, much to my dismay is my MP. Very low profile down this way, unless you are a churchgoer. After leaving school went off the live and work in London (we but was and still is, portrayed as a local boy.
Being as objective as i can, you Tories have far better candidates than Crabbe.0 -
That's what many of those who nominated Corbyn thought.anotherDave said:
He's not going to win, so we won't find out.SandraM said:But what has Crabb actually achieved in office? Might he not be a Corbyn of the right; a well-meaning beardie ideologist who proves unable to lead?
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@RodCrosby pickJobabob said:Not a single Tory front runner has pledged to invoke Article 50.
I assume Fox will.......0 -
I think placating Ms Sturgeon pushes us to the smallest step away from the EU. It's not just economics, its politics too.David_Evershed said:
Do the deal in London, book the deal in Luxembourg. Simples.rcs1000 said:
I tend to agree that we could negotiate a better deal. But here's the thing:taffys said:''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''
No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.
Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?
When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?
If we invoke Article 50, without having EFTA/EEA as a proposed destination, we will start losing financial services companies immediately. Why? Because if you're running Morgan Stanley in London, and you know that in two years - if a deal isn't completed - you are without passporting, and there is business you simply can't do in London anymore. So, you'll invoke the precautionary principle: moving functions that require financial passporting to Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Warsaw. Not doing so is too great a risk.
The immediate impact of this will be a very serious impact on the Prime London property market. While this is not something that will be of enormous interest to you, it will undoubtedly lead to stresses at UK banks, if tens of billions of mortgages have moved from 65% loan-to-value to 120%. At the very least, this will affect the ability of banks to support the economy. It will also feed through in the "wealth effect".0 -
So, do we know whom the Speaker will call as the LotO at PMQs?0
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Harman getting involved now. This is incredible.0
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Fox has already said he wouldn't until the outline of a deal has been agreed with the EU. I think that is the stance of all the runners, though Crabb seems to also have attached saving the Union in there as well, which is a tough sell IMO.Jobabob said:Not a single Tory front runner has pledged to invoke Article 50.
I assume Fox will.......0 -
PlatoSaid said:
Interesting point. Chilcot is next Wednesday...rural_voter said:
They'll certainly need to take control of the coverage of the Chilcot report; both voted for the Iraq war, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2862397.stmPulpstar said:Watson and Eagle should stand up behind a #TakeControl podium.
Chilcot report is bad timing for supporters of Blair and Straw - basically bad for Labour opponents of the anti war Corbynites.
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He's Indigo.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was very interesting, he didn't say he knew how to place a bet, but he knew how to lay a bet.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF US ONE OF USTheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
I'll get Robert to do an IP Lookup again and find out who Stephen Crabb posts as on PB0 -
Corbyn.Sandpit said:So, do we know whom the Speaker will call as the LotO at PMQs?
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Reading the quotes from Crabb about " taking back control " of immigration it seems all about saving the modernisation project. They are attempting to sound the most Brexit of the Campaigns to sanitise there Remainian roots. But why ? May with her " Nasty Party " comment was the Mother of Modernisation. That was the psychological metanoia point. It'll be safe in her hands.0
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No, the mistake was in even thinking about the idea of such a budget. The chancellor has increased his borrowing by £180bn in the last six years over his original target, the idea that he would choose the hard option this one time when asked to do so is rubbish.Wanderer said:
Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).Indigo said:
Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.TheScreamingEagles said:The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone
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Or as most common comment to a Lab canvasser went before JezzaRochdalePioneers said:
Cameroon Tory / Orange Book LibDem / Progress Labour - whats the substantial difference?Pulpstar said:I'm confused - is Stephen Crabb running for leadership of the Lib Dems or the Conservatives ?
Theyre all the same0 -
Here's how your finances will be affected: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36641090Indigo said:
Really? I suppose you have detailed knowledge of how my finances work, what UK holdings I have, how much I remit to the UK every year and so forth. Or possibly you are flapping your lips.Wanderer said:
"We have to make it work" says a guy that doesn't even live here.Indigo said:
Newsflash: "Remain" and "Leave" don't exist anymore, the public voted, now we have to make what they voted for work. Or I guess you can sit there crying and throwing your toys around.logical_song said:
Just factually incorrect.Indigo said:
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.logical_song said:
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.dugarbandier said:
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.Indigo said:
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.dugarbandier said:
that's not what it said on the ballotblackburn63 said:last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
You are clutching at straws, Britain is worse off.
I see that you concede that Leave 'lied massively'.
... and do try to be less offensive.0 -
trottenborough said:
What's his majority?valleyboy said:Crabbe, much to my dismay is my MP. Very low profile down this way, unless you are a churchgoer. After leaving school went off the live and work in London (we but was and still is, portrayed as a local boy.
Being as objective as i can, you Tories have far better candidates than Crabbe.
Started at 300 in 2005, now over 4000. He has been very clever in gathering support via the churches and other local organisations. Of course the influx of 'immigrants' from England, who tend to vote Tory has helped as well!
What is the church influence on the Tory party itself? Could Crabbe benefit from that?
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And all the money that was going on him yesterday, is completely unrelated to that comment.TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh Stephen Crabb says he knows how to lay a bet...
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Yikes!SandraM said:
That's what many of those who nominated Corbyn thought.anotherDave said:
He's not going to win, so we won't find out.SandraM said:But what has Crabb actually achieved in office? Might he not be a Corbyn of the right; a well-meaning beardie ideologist who proves unable to lead?
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Osborne has borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.MaxPB said:
No, the mistake was in even thinking about the idea of such a budget. The chancellor has increased his borrowing by £180bn in the last six years over his original target, the idea that he would choose the hard option this one time when asked to do so is rubbish.Wanderer said:
Conservatives who used the phrase "punishment budget" were certainly very unwise. It will be used to describe every Conservative budget between now and 2050 (assuming there are any).Indigo said:
Osborne undid it last week. The punishment budget will be used against the Tories for years, especially if there financial fall out from BrExit is relatively mild. It will be a case of at the first sound of gunfire the nature instinct of a Tory Chancellor was to put up taxes on hardworking voters and make deep cuts to the NHS and Schools having promised to ringfence them.TheScreamingEagles said:The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone
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Harman's called for Corbyn to go. Bloody hell.0
