politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months
Comments
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If Yvette stands, she wins, I think. Watson as caretaker in the PLP than rally around Yvette.surbiton said:
If only one candidate, then it has to be Watson, who after all, was also elected overwhelmingly last year.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The more MPs look at the logic of the coup the more Tom Watson is seen by some as the only choice. (And he beat Eagle to 4th in dep elxn)
If only one woman candidate, I would still prefer Yvette.
A Eagle has the charisma of wet lettuce !0 -
Quite. And well said.William_H said:
Why? Because "We're the establishment, do what we tell you, accept who we choose for you" is a successful message at the moment?DanSmith said:
No has to be one candidate. Has to be a clear choice between Corbyn or no Corbyn.tlg86 said:
Why don't they both run? Surely AV solves all their problems?AlastairMeeks said:Oh for pity's sake:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/748083515720404993
I feel sorry for the ordinary Labour voters who deserve better.
I mean, if they're planning on losing then a single candidate might limit the margin of victory a bit and give them a better start to their new party, but if they're looking to win then drawing more people into the voting pool and offering a choice on non-corbyn options seems like the better idea.0 -
Whatever Corbyn's shortcomings, he is not corrupt.PlatoSaid said:
I worked with a guy who'd spent several years at HMP [Ch Acct caught defrauding VAT].Wanderer said:
Trouble is, it will look like they are not doing their jobs. Also, Corbyn is clearly impervious to humiliation.TheWhiteRabbit said:Members of PLP should just refuse to attend PMQs. The site of Corbyn - and a few acolytes- isolated on the opposition benches should do the trick (other parties can cluster as usual).
He was totally shameless - made it very difficult to 'manage' him in a conventional sense. He simply didn't play by conventional rules. Corbyn reminds me a lot of this.0 -
Plllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaseeeeeeeeeee run Angela.0
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I'm not that old!Pulpstar said:0 -
Is that good for JC or bad for him ?Morris_Dancer said:Pissing it down in Yorkshire.
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As Mr Dancer has shamefully neglected the opportunity to do so, there are some parallels with the Roman Republic.Jobabob said:
Indeed. It really is quite something how the far left Corbynites are tried to brush off a rebellion of this scale as s wrinkle of history. There is no precedent for a leader staying in such circumstancesdavid_herdson said:
So then they will have to walk and either defect or set up their own party. What marks this rebellion out so far is the unity of purpose: the resignations and then the VoNC. Would that carry forward to the ultimate rebellion were Corbyn re-elected? It would have its own momentum. Providing that a critical mass went, then those who stayed would be ever more vulnerable to the increasing relative power of the left, so increasing the incentive to jump.bigjohnowls said:A solution to Labours problems could be.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
Ambitious men would follow the cursus honorem, which was a sequence of offices of ascending power. Once they'd had their single term as consul, they would have a term of governorship (which allowed them to feather their nest, if they hadn't already), and then retire (there were still prestigious offices, but *handwave*).
It all started to break down when said ambitious men decided to re-run for consul and refuse to obey the cursus honorem. There were insufficient checks and balances to prevent that kind of behaviour as it had previously been believed it was unthinkable that anyone would behave that way.
Jeremy Corbyn ignoring a loss of no confidence vote - the PLP don't know what to do.0 -
Watson has the better chance against Corbyn, Eagle has the better chance in a GE.Slackbladder said:
Can anyone see Angela Eagle of LOO, let alone PM? She's on the verge of tears 80% of the time.DanSmith said:
No has to be one candidate. Has to be a clear choice between Corbyn or no Corbyn.tlg86 said:
Why don't they both run? Surely AV solves all their problems?AlastairMeeks said:Oh for pity's sake:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/748083515720404993
I feel sorry for the ordinary Labour voters who deserve better.0 -
I want to see Eagle humiliated.0
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1997 a disaster for LDs?! They almost doubled their MPs.david_herdson said:
1997 was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems (or more accurately, the decisions that led to it were). Abandoning equidistance and engaging in strategic coordiation with Labour ensured that when Labour eventually became less popular than the Tories, they would be dragged down too. Worse, natural dynamics meant that if the GE produced NOM - quite likely given the numbers - the Lib Dems would be faced with the choice of backing a tired an discredited regime or abandoning all their tactical voters to go with the Tories.stodge said:
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.david_herdson said:
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
An SDP2 cannot tear any more chunks out of the Tories than blair did, for the same reason: 25-30% of the electorate is moderate centre-right and will not vote for a left-of-centre party. I'd be more worried about UKIP there, except that (1) their ground game and leadership are poor and (2) it makes more sense for them to go left and exploit the socially conservative voters neither Corbyn nor Eagle would appeal to.
And do the Lib Dems have that much of a councillor base? Isn't it now highly concentrated in a small number of authorities? The price of all that targetting in the 1990s/2000s was writing off enormous parts of the country.
Did you mean 2010?0 -
@NickPalmer Simple question: should Corbyn resign? Note that there is no constitution precedent for a Loto or PM to remain when he has lost the backing of his own MPs on anything like this scale.
I await your answer.0 -
Problem labour have is that this isn't a challenge to get rid of corbyn, it's also a leadership election, so whoever wins has to then take labour to the next election at least.
Angela Eagle would be rubbish. Tom Watson isn't very likeable, but competent.0 -
From years of reading the back pages, I believe the time-honoured puns are "Eagle's wings clipped", "Eagle shot down" or "Eagle stuffed".Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
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when you're banking on Angela Eagle in a GE, then labour really is f**ked.DanSmith said:
Watson has the better chance against Corbyn, Eagle has the better chance in a GE.Slackbladder said:
Can anyone see Angela Eagle of LOO, let alone PM? She's on the verge of tears 80% of the time.DanSmith said:
No has to be one candidate. Has to be a clear choice between Corbyn or no Corbyn.tlg86 said:
Why don't they both run? Surely AV solves all their problems?AlastairMeeks said:Oh for pity's sake:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/748083515720404993
I feel sorry for the ordinary Labour voters who deserve better.0 -
This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
PleaaaaaaaaaaaseeeeTheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
Danny Blanchflower.. If he is still alive??? perhaps he could become England Football ManagerWulfrun_Phil said:Of McDonnell's economic advisory team, so far I'm aware that Richard Murphy, Thomas Piketty and Danny Blanchflower have quit so far. Are there any others that people know of?
All will henceforth be labelled "Blairites" by the Corbynites.0 -
Yes, many of those who voted for Corbyn will also have voted for Watson as he nearly 40% of 1st preference votes for Deputy Leader.surbiton said:
If only one candidate, then it has to be Watson, who after all, was also elected overwhelmingly last year.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The more MPs look at the logic of the coup the more Tom Watson is seen by some as the only choice. (And he beat Eagle to 4th in dep elxn)
If only one woman candidate, I would still prefer Yvette.
A Eagle has the charisma of wet lettuce !0 -
McDonnell vs Eagle would be great.0
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Labour have a once in a lifetime chance here. Don't flunk it now. Progressive Party, here we come.HHemmelig said:Have to agree with Stodge on the ludicrous complacency of the Conservatives at the moment. About 40% of their voters voted Remain last week and, especially among the young professional demographic in the south east, many of them are furious with what has happened. Assuming that they wouldn't be open to supporting a pro-European pro-business centre party is the height of complacency. Having voted Conservative in every GE since 1997 I certainly will not be doing so again for a long time even though the current alternatives are awful.
Party colour: Luciana pink (modern rose) or Chuka turquoise (Ibiza aqua)
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FTPA works during hung Parliaments were if a coalition PM tries to dissolve Parliament, another alternative PM can take over instead. It doesn't work in times of majority government.surbiton said:
I am not too sure about that. After all, Parliament passed the FTPA.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cameron calls it, invites Labour to be seen as opposing democracy.surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
If Corbyn opposes, even better. It will probably still pass. Keep tabling it every week if necessary.
If the new Tory PM calls an early election and three line whips his party into voting for it, it would take the SNP, Labour and everyone else three line whipping against an early vote for it to not pass. Doesn't exactly go with what Corbyn and Sturgeon claim they want to suggest three more years of a Tory government is what they would three line whip in favour.0 -
I haven't posted too often recently because the news cycle has become overwhelming and I have been watching events with astonishment, but optimistic that the future is bright (notwithstanding being a remainer). The next cabinet, indeed the whole conservative party, must unite and follow the need of the economy for a single market with some form of immigration control. I think that Nicole Sturgeon's meeting Schubble and Junckers is 'comedy gold' as all three are in denial at the changes that are coming.
I believe that the negotiations will result in the best of both worlds for everyone, including Scotland, and the deciding factor will be that neither side can afford to prejudice the trade of each other, and a deal will be done
The conservative party will negate UKIP and will pursue a much more socially aware agenda and they should be in power for years. There is no need for a general election as labour disintegrate and head for oblivion.
I cannot recall any time when so much has been in chaos but leaving will motivate the nation and most probably see massive change in the EU. The arrogance of the six foreign minister's discussing Brexit and ignoring the other 21 Countries is causing anger and no wonder. They are 'doomed' to be honest and leave is the right thing to do0 -
I've got the thread writtenAlastairMeeks said:
From years of reading the back pages, I believe the time-honoured puns are "Eagle's wings clipped", "Eagle shot down" or "Eagle stuffed".Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
'Where Eagle dares' and 'The Eagle has landed'0 -
Bank of America sees UK inflation at 4% in a year or so. Will BoE raise rates to counter?
Brexit will look even more daft when millions of homeowners who've never known a different mortgage rate get hit.0 -
They'll certainly need to take control of the coverage of the Chilcot report; both voted for the Iraq war, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2862397.stmPulpstar said:Watson and Eagle should stand up behind a #TakeControl podium.
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From the Spectator:
"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."
There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.0 -
How bad have things become for Labour if McIRA is seen as a "unity" candidate. Labour are no longer fit for purpose.TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
i'm confused are you still tory, or quit yet?TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
LOL! Eagle and Watson are launching a coup... Against each other!!!!!!!
#Couldntmakeitup0 -
In the words of Churchill: "OH YES".TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
SNP enjoying themselves any way. Erskine May will be consulted according to Sky.0
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Watson seems the clear choice to me. I think a problem for the non-Corbyn candidates last year was that they were all so wet and ineffectual, at least until Yvette got vaguely fired up near the end. Watson isn't the most likeable politician in the country but he's anything but a drip. With Watson the anti-Corbynites can say they have a candidate who will take the fight to the Tories with a vengeance.surbiton said:
If only one candidate, then it has to be Watson, who after all, was also elected overwhelmingly last year.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The more MPs look at the logic of the coup the more Tom Watson is seen by some as the only choice. (And he beat Eagle to 4th in dep elxn)
If only one woman candidate, I would still prefer Yvette.
A Eagle has the charisma of wet lettuce !0 -
John McDonell is still available at 25s on Betfair and a similar price at SkyBet0
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Better not use SDPMk2. Progressive Democrats might be a better name. 450 ex-Labour, 200 Lib Dem. Some Orange bookers might join the Tories.0
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Knocked off her perch?AlastairMeeks said:
From years of reading the back pages, I believe the time-honoured puns are "Eagle's wings clipped", "Eagle shot down" or "Eagle stuffed".Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
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(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 29s29 seconds ago
In the deputy leadership contest Tom Watson got 160,000 votes, Angela Eagle got 60,000. What am I missing here.
It's time the party was led by a woman?0 -
I'm still a Tory.Slackbladder said:
i'm confused are you still tory, or quit yet?TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/748092140618657792
If Boris becomes leader, I shall intend to be a bastard, inside the tent, pissing in0 -
I think that Watson would have the better chance in both.DanSmith said:
Watson has the better chance against Corbyn, Eagle has the better chance in a GE.Slackbladder said:
Can anyone see Angela Eagle of LOO, let alone PM? She's on the verge of tears 80% of the time.DanSmith said:
No has to be one candidate. Has to be a clear choice between Corbyn or no Corbyn.tlg86 said:
Why don't they both run? Surely AV solves all their problems?AlastairMeeks said:Oh for pity's sake:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/748083515720404993
I feel sorry for the ordinary Labour voters who deserve better.
More pertinently, we are less likely to have a GE in which Labour would lose half its remaining seats if either beats Corbyn.0 -
Nick- I am not calling him a mass murderer, or evil, I am just trying to rationalise why he is staying against this kind of opposition. Most politicians suffer from some kind of narcissism...it is what draws them into politics, a bit like asbergers draws people to computers or Dr Who.NickPalmer said:
That's over-analysis (to put it mildly - there is actually nobody in politics who I'd compare with an alleged murderer, not even a BNP leader). He doesn't loathe anyone (less than most people here, I'd think) - it's one of his attractive qualities, and widely reciprocated, as acknowledged in many of the resignation letters. Rebelling colleagues generally think he's ineffective and inflexible, not evil or mad. He merely sees himself as the representative of a strand of political thinking, obliged to do his best by it.tyson said:The Corbyn cult is quite interesting. I can't help but think that for years this man has been ignored, an old school firebrand, isolated, making his own meetings with his comradely chums equally despised, laughed and sneered at by his Parliamentary colleagues, voted Parliamentary beard of the year as a piss take.
Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.
I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.
Brown was a classic narcissist, but even Brown would have been long gone facing this kind of opposition.
One hopes that Corbyn is simply playing out a (McDonnell) strategy to get an anointed successor onto a ballot paper, and they are playing for time. Then I'll be wrong.
If not Nick, and Corbyn intends to run again, and destroy the Labour Party while he's at it, it is because he believes that he is the only one fighting a righteous cause against all the non believers. The proof will be in what he does next.
Incidentally, David Blanket yesterday was saying as much as I'm saying here. Maybe the comparison to Hamilton was a slightly OTT.0 -
Any particular reason?Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
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Scrapheap_as_was said:
I'm not that old!Pulpstar said:
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I reckon that's what it's coming down to. Eagle's saying "look, the Tories could be about to go for a woman, we'd look really bad if we don't too."rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 29s29 seconds ago
In the deputy leadership contest Tom Watson got 160,000 votes, Angela Eagle got 60,000. What am I missing here.
It's time the party was led by a woman?0 -
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryJohn_M said:
@NadineDorriesMP I suggest you delete this which is defamatory.0 -
Watson will also please "old Labour" without himself being one. He is what you might call "machine politician". Normally, he would not be my #10 choice but he will do in the current situation.Wanderer said:
Watson seems the clear choice to me. I think a problem for the non-Corbyn candidates last year was that they were all so wet and ineffectual, at least until Yvette got vaguely fired up near the end. Watson isn't the most likeable politician in the country but he's anything but a drip. With Watson the anti-Corbynites can say they have a candidate who will take the fight to the Tories with a vengeance.surbiton said:
If only one candidate, then it has to be Watson, who after all, was also elected overwhelmingly last year.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: The more MPs look at the logic of the coup the more Tom Watson is seen by some as the only choice. (And he beat Eagle to 4th in dep elxn)
If only one woman candidate, I would still prefer Yvette.
A Eagle has the charisma of wet lettuce !0 -
It needs to be a binary election. Anything else results in everyone focussing on the wrong things and Corbyn slipping through the middletlg86 said:
Why don't they both run? Surely AV solves all their problems?AlastairMeeks said:Oh for pity's sake:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/748083515720404993
I feel sorry for the ordinary Labour voters who deserve better.0 -
Will be good for savers though (anybody remember those?)rottenborough said:Bank of America sees UK inflation at 4% in a year or so. Will BoE raise rates to counter?
Brexit will look even more daft when millions of homeowners who've never known a different mortgage rate get hit.0 -
Which NEC order book rule is that one coming from?AlastairMeeks said:
In the words of Churchill: "OH YES".TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
Watson is more Marmite than Farage.Slackbladder said:Problem labour have is that this isn't a challenge to get rid of corbyn, it's also a leadership election, so whoever wins has to then take labour to the next election at least.
Angela Eagle would be rubbish. Tom Watson isn't very likeable, but competent.0 -
Soubry might join the Progressive Democrats. Sorry, Nick !PlatoSaid said:
I saw her impromptu speech this morning on Sky - she appeared over tired and emotional.dr_spyn said:On a scale from George Brown to Winston Churchill, how over tired was this MP?
ttps://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/7480428435754885120 -
If Eagle is thrashed (Particularly by McDonnell) then its a good betting outcome, SDP mark 2 forms which leaves the Labour party rudderless and directionless and creates even more betting opportunities.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Any particular reason?Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
I think Watson has a better chance and so less turmoil in the Labour party which decreases the betting opportunities.0 -
I'm sure you're thinking of the best interests of Labour and not your 50/1 tip aren't you?AlastairMeeks said:
In the words of Churchill: "OH YES".TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
Problem is is that if corbyn resigns then that opens up the election for all and sundry. as long as Corbyn is there, it's a 1 v 1.rottenborough said:
Which NEC order book rule is that one coming from?AlastairMeeks said:
In the words of Churchill: "OH YES".TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/7480921406186577920 -
Who will be Broadsword and will they call Danny Boy?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've got the thread writtenAlastairMeeks said:
From years of reading the back pages, I believe the time-honoured puns are "Eagle's wings clipped", "Eagle shot down" or "Eagle stuffed".Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
'Where Eagle dares' and 'The Eagle has landed'0 -
I'm pretty much an orange-booker and these days I would be far more likely to support a moderate, pro-EU, centre-left party than the Tories. You have to compromise on something in politics.surbiton said:Better not use SDPMk2. Progressive Democrats might be a better name. 450 ex-Labour, 200 Lib Dem. Some Orange bookers might join the Tories.
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If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb0
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I think blind ideology is on a spectrum of mental illness. Ideology brings this view of the word that is completely divorced from reality, and attracts messianic devotees. Corbyn's glorious revolution is as nihilistic and irrelevant to the world as the Brexitmaniacs. Both don't care what they trash to achieve their aims.PeterC said:
There is no evidence that he is mentally ill. It is necessary to understand where the hard left is coming from. To them "the party" means the grassroots. Parliamentary representatives are no more than a couple of hundred party members who merit no special consideration. In this sense his actions are logical: he will not resign because he has not lost the confidence of the party as he sees it.tyson said:
This would be the sensible....to allow a straight forward contest between a Corbynite (I would say Lewis rather than McDonnell), and a moderate.bigjohnowls said:A solution to Labours problems could be.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
But, I posted earlier....I think Corbyn may well be an ill man, deluded, angry, guided by his own personal messianic, self righteous thoughts, and with sociopathic tendancies, in which case, he may not be able to be talked out of running again, even by his closest advisers.
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@AdamBienkov: Stephen Crabb digs at Boris: "Nothing gets handed to you on a plate... Ball doesn't pop out from the back of the scrum... have to grab it"0
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Crabb announces formally he is standing.0
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I really cannot understand why both or even Yvette cannot be candidates. The winner is not elected by FPTP. If Corbyn receives more than 50%, then it does not matter how many stood against him.GIN1138 said:LOL! Eagle and Watson are launching a coup... Against each other!!!!!!!
#Couldntmakeitup
McDonnell will not receive the same number of votes as Corbyn. McDonnell to many is another politician. To Corbyn's supporters, he is a Saint [ atheistic ]-1 -
Has been ages since I've watched either film, need a rewatchHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Who will be Broadsword and will they call Danny Boy?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've got the thread writtenAlastairMeeks said:
From years of reading the back pages, I believe the time-honoured puns are "Eagle's wings clipped", "Eagle shot down" or "Eagle stuffed".Pulpstar said:I want to see Eagle humiliated.
'Where Eagle dares' and 'The Eagle has landed'0 -
Thinking about it last night, on a 1-1 it has to be Tom Watson rather than Eagle. Her 4th place last year offers absolutely no indication that she can win.Slackbladder said:
Problem is is that if corbyn resigns then that opens up the election for all and sundry. as long as Corbyn is there, it's a 1 v 1.rottenborough said:
Which NEC order book rule is that one coming from?AlastairMeeks said:
In the words of Churchill: "OH YES".TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/748092140618657792
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What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.John_M said:From the Spectator:
"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."
There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.0 -
The doubled their MPs only by becoming the country wing of the Labour Party: co-operating in tactical campaigning to such an extent that they sold off their independence of action. The 'disaster' was the future-dated price they paid for the gains in 1997: payment that became due in 2010 and overdue in 2015.not_on_fire said:
1997 a disaster for LDs?! They almost doubled their MPs.david_herdson said:
1997 was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems (or more accurately, the decisions that led to it were). Abandoning equidistance and engaging in strategic coordiation with Labour ensured that when Labour eventually became less popular than the Tories, they would be dragged down too. Worse, natural dynamics meant that if the GE produced NOM - quite likely given the numbers - the Lib Dems would be faced with the choice of backing a tired an discredited regime or abandoning all their tactical voters to go with the Tories.stodge said:
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
An SDP2 cannot tear any more chunks out of the Tories than blair did, for the same reason: 25-30% of the electorate is moderate centre-right and will not vote for a left-of-centre party. I'd be more worried about UKIP there, except that (1) their ground game and leadership are poor and (2) it makes more sense for them to go left and exploit the socially conservative voters neither Corbyn nor Eagle would appeal to.
And do the Lib Dems have that much of a councillor base? Isn't it now highly concentrated in a small number of authorities? The price of all that targetting in the 1990s/2000s was writing off enormous parts of the country.
Did you mean 2010?0 -
Have you done any straw polls of members yet? I've done a quick one, Boris has half of the leave people on his side and none of the remain people, I don't see how he can win on those numbers. This is in London, so it may not be representative.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm still a Tory.Slackbladder said:
i'm confused are you still tory, or quit yet?TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/748092140618657792
If Boris becomes leader, I shall intend to be a bastard, inside the tent, pissing in0 -
Come on, you know you want to put up "Winning here" diamondsWanderer said:
I'm pretty much an orange-booker and these days I would be far more likely to support a moderate, pro-EU, centre-left party than the Tories. You have to compromise on something in politics.surbiton said:Better not use SDPMk2. Progressive Democrats might be a better name. 450 ex-Labour, 200 Lib Dem. Some Orange bookers might join the Tories.
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Will Hunt stand? If he wins I am in for a massive payday!0
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Shocked by this, shocked.
Boris Johnson for PM group asks if Tories want a Muslim chancellor OR a ‘British patriot’. Bigotry, much?
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/boris-johnson-for-pm-group-asks-if-tories-want-a-muslim-chancellor-or-a-british-patriot/0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
Oooh I say madame....The legend, that is Kenneth Williams.
Great picture
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Interesting point. Chilcot is next Wednesday...rural_voter said:
They'll certainly need to take control of the coverage of the Chilcot report; both voted for the Iraq war, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2862397.stmPulpstar said:Watson and Eagle should stand up behind a #TakeControl podium.
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Faisal Islam @faisalislam 4m4 minutes ago
Crabb: Sajid will be an outstanding Chancellor of the Exchequer
Hmm. Not sure about that bit myself, but loving the rugby digs.0 -
Equality and Feminism is not advancing a poor candidate just because they have a vagina.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 29s29 seconds ago
In the deputy leadership contest Tom Watson got 160,000 votes, Angela Eagle got 60,000. What am I missing here.
It's time the party was led by a woman?
It has to be Watson for two reasons:
1. He had the mass appeal that an ABC candidate will need
2. Eagle's CLP have instructed her to support Corbyn. If she goes against them she'll be deselected0 -
Did he? That's very disappointing.TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Will she try that line with The Mail? Their lawyers must have been aware of that tweet before the story went up, otherwise funds might be on their way to Ms S's charity of choice or bank account.rottenborough said:
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryJohn_M said:
@NadineDorriesMP I suggest you delete this which is defamatory.0 -
Does it really matter? It was years ago and it's not like it's going to be repealedTheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
The main reason I'd say no to Crabb is because he has very little experience. If this a contest for LOTO then fair enough, he could grow into the role. But as well as Conservative leader we're also looking for a Prime Minister which means it's got to be someone with clout!0 -
We've found a way to create inflation.... I will believe it when I see it...GIN1138 said:
Will be good for savers though (anybody remember those?)rottenborough said:Bank of America sees UK inflation at 4% in a year or so. Will BoE raise rates to counter?
Brexit will look even more daft when millions of homeowners who've never known a different mortgage rate get hit.0 -
Only to extend the election by another day.rottenborough said:Crabb announces formally he is standing.
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Which is why referenda are not the democratic panacea BB63 would have us believe.OldKingCole said:
So you feel no responsibility for the mess we appear to be sliding into? You have no regrets for the lies your leaders told to ge the result they wanted?blackburn63 said:
You're a decent bloke and I'm puzzled why you keep repeating this. "Leave" such as it was, persuaded people we should leave the EU, it is now the responsibility of the govt to carry out its wishes, nobody else.SouthamObserver said:
Disagreeing with you is not sneering at the choice of anyone. Leave made big promisrs to working men and women, they will be expected to deliver on them. Your cynical "all politicians lie" line will not wash, I'm afraid.Indigo said:
Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.logical_song said:
That's obvious.
Just for the record, I thought some of the Remain propaganda was dishonest, too.
I wouldn't mind if there was a mechanism to hold people accountable for what they promised in order to win. If a government breaks its promises it can be kicked out in 5 years and that operates as something of a brake on what they say during a campaign.
With a referendum you can promise anything you like in the full knowledge that you will never be held accountable. It matters little whether everything the Leave campaign said proves to be populist lies, the country is stuck with the consequence pretty much for ever.
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A vote of No Confidence would do it. A Tory PM could arrange that as they have a majority:surbiton said:We are all assuming an early election - including me. But how would they go round the 55% hurdle ?
Or, the FTP doesn't mean what it says.
Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".0 -
Or to make sure he is not overlooked when new Cabinet is formed. But as a kid from the estates of Wales, he might make a few interesting points about policy etc.surbiton said:
Only to extend the election by another day.rottenborough said:Crabb announces formally he is standing.
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I saw parallels with Ken and Junker.John_M said:0 -
In this time of national difficulty anyone moaning about equality or representation should be taken out back and shot (not really). It's vital we get the best person for the job regardless of whats between their legs.RochdalePioneers said:
Equality and Feminism is not advancing a poor candidate just because they have a vagina.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 29s29 seconds ago
In the deputy leadership contest Tom Watson got 160,000 votes, Angela Eagle got 60,000. What am I missing here.
It's time the party was led by a woman?
It has to be Watson for two reasons:
1. He had the mass appeal that an ABC candidate will need
2. Eagle's CLP have instructed her to support Corbyn. If she goes against them she'll be deselected0 -
I've spoke to two last night, my old constituency chairman, hardcore Leaver said he'd back anyone but Boris, even Ken Clarke.MaxPB said:
Have you done any straw polls of members yet? I've done a quick one, Boris has half of the leave people on his side and none of the remain people, I don't see how he can win on those numbers. This is in London, so it may not be representative.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm still a Tory.Slackbladder said:
i'm confused are you still tory, or quit yet?TheScreamingEagles said:This would not displease me at all from a betting nor political position
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/748092140618657792
If Boris becomes leader, I shall intend to be a bastard, inside the tent, pissing in
A remainer said being a Brexiteer come mid August might be an awful position to hold if the economic news is poor because of Brexit, so he might go for May, but he thinks only a Brexiteer PM is the only one who can sell an EEA deal to the Leavers in the country.0 -
I tell you, they could actually win ! This time it will not be 26 MPs who would be carrying the banner.Wanderer said:
I'm pretty much an orange-booker and these days I would be far more likely to support a moderate, pro-EU, centre-left party than the Tories. You have to compromise on something in politics.surbiton said:Better not use SDPMk2. Progressive Democrats might be a better name. 450 ex-Labour, 200 Lib Dem. Some Orange bookers might join the Tories.
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He talks 'tosh'?PlatoSaid said:
What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.John_M said:From the Spectator:
"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."
There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.0 -
He didMaxPB said:
Did he? That's very disappointing.TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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Newsflash: "Remain" and "Leave" don't exist anymore, the public voted, now we have to make what they voted for work. Or I guess you can sit there crying and throwing your toys around.logical_song said:
Just factually incorrect.Indigo said:
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.logical_song said:
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.dugarbandier said:
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.Indigo said:
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.dugarbandier said:
that's not what it said on the ballotblackburn63 said:last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
You are clutching at straws, Britain is worse off.
I see that you concede that Leave 'lied massively'.0 -
Hunt is by far the smoothest operator in the Tory ranks, and carries Cameron's sense of reassurance and charm. If I was a Tory, I'd be stuck between him and May who could well be our Angela Merkel with heels (and I mean that in a good way).rottenborough said:Will Hunt stand? If he wins I am in for a massive payday!
I'd know intuitively Boris would be a failure, and Crabb- is he jockeying for position, or does he really think he'll win? I thought Ed Miliband entered the 2010 contest to get a prominent post in his brother's cabinet- that is until McCluskey intervened.
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Yes, he's flip flopped around since. Also linked to groups advocating a "cure" for homosexuality.MaxPB said:
Did he? That's very disappointing.TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
0 -
((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.
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There is no precedent for Labour MPs being so out of touch with the membership of their party.Jobabob said:
Indeed. It really is quite something how the far left Corbynites are tried to brush off a rebellion of this scale as s wrinkle of history. There is no precedent for a leader staying in such circumstancesdavid_herdson said:
So then they will have to walk and either defect or set up their own party. What marks this rebellion out so far is the unity of purpose: the resignations and then the VoNC. Would that carry forward to the ultimate rebellion were Corbyn re-elected? It would have its own momentum. Providing that a critical mass went, then those who stayed would be ever more vulnerable to the increasing relative power of the left, so increasing the incentive to jump.bigjohnowls said:A solution to Labours problems could be.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they0 -
"Eagle's CLP have instructed her to support Corbyn. If she goes against them she'll be deselected"Slackbladder said:
In this time of national difficulty anyone moaning about equality or representation should be taken out back and shot (not really). It's vital we get the best person for the job regardless of whats between their legs.RochdalePioneers said:
Equality and Feminism is not advancing a poor candidate just because they have a vagina.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 29s29 seconds ago
In the deputy leadership contest Tom Watson got 160,000 votes, Angela Eagle got 60,000. What am I missing here.
It's time the party was led by a woman?
It has to be Watson for two reasons:
1. He had the mass appeal that an ABC candidate will need
2. Eagle's CLP have instructed her to support Corbyn. If she goes against them she'll be deselected
Sorry ! I am a member of the Labour Party , but you could not make this up !0 -
Javid didn't though did he? This is a great team in terms of 'back story'.... either of them related to a bus driver?TheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
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It does matter, is a sign of true liberalism for me.GIN1138 said:
Does it really matter? It was years ago and it's not like it's going to be repealedTheScreamingEagles said:If he hadn't opposed same sex marriage, I'd so be on team Crabb
The main reason I'd say no to Crabb is because he has very little experience. If this a contest for LOTO then fair enough, he could grow into the role. But as well as Conservative leader we're also looking for a Prime Minister which means it's got to be someone with clout!
Plus was one of the things that persuaded all those Lib Dems to switch to the Tories in those Lib Dem held seats in 2015.
The detox project is essential, I don't want it to be undone0 -
Will be over very soon then.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
It's doesn't necessarily stand for anything. Not sure about his case...rottenborough said:
He talks 'tosh'?PlatoSaid said:
What's Tosh short for? I haven't heard that nickname in years bar that chap in The Bill.John_M said:From the Spectator:
"Tosh McDonald, the president of Aslef, went further by claiming that he now found it difficult to decide who he hated the most out of Margaret Thatcher and the Parliamentary Labour Party."
There you have it. Blairites are viruses and vermin. At least the left are consistently nasty, even to their own.0 -
If that is true, Watson is Leader straightaway.DanSmith said:
Will be over very soon then.rottenborough said:((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 22s22 seconds ago
Understand Corbyn wants to call it a day. Milne and the other ultras telling him he has to cling on.0 -
An observation....if there was a three quid membership, I'd pay it and vote for whom I thought would be the best PM, probably May to be honest.
I hope once the Labour leadership starts, pbERS (Pulpstar- I mean you)- will pay the three quid and do the right thing. We need a healthy democracy.0
