FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
SKY earlier were highlighting that people are putting on hold buying curtains and cushions.
The End of Days are here, as set out in Revelations "and the Lord will smite the buyers of scatter cushions..."
If they choose him again, what are the MPs going to do? Kiss and make up? Ignore him? Elect their own PLP leader?
Labour's Constitution is crystal clear: the leader of the party is the ex officio leader of the PLP
The Labour constitution is not the British constitution.
But if Corbyn wins again, Labour will undoubtedly split.
If the PLP chose a "spokesman" in Parliament, I don't think that the Speaker could treat him/her as the Leader of the Opposition when the constitution says that the "leader of the party is ex officio the leader of the parliamentary labour party"
Where does the constitution say that?
By convention, the LotO is the leader of the largest parliamentary delegation in the Commons (though that was altered during WWII when virtually every party was in government). The constitution is a flexible beast but also one that pre-dates organised political parties. Who leads a party outside Westminster ought to be of no concern to the Speaker. The LotO is the reserve PM and as such, is the one best placed to command a majority if the government were to fall. That has to depend on numbers of MPs.
This is not just a convention. It is laid down in the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937. The Leader of the Opposition is "member of the House of Commons who is for the time being the leader in that House of the party in opposition to His Majesty's Government having the greatest numerical strength in that House". The Speaker only gets to decide if there is any doubt as to which was the party with the greatest strength or who is the leader of that party.
As things stand Labour is clearly the largest party in opposition. Under their rule book Corbyn is clearly leader. I don't think Bercow has any choice as to who he calls.
While the rebel Labour MPs retain the whip, probably not.
An interesting piece by David and, as always, I don't agree with most of it but thank you for putting it forward.
Labour is a victim of its own democracy just as, arguably, the Conservatives are or will be. The days of the MPs getting together and quickly choosing a new leader (as happened with the departures of Macmillan, Wilson and Thatcher) are over and it's astonishing neither party has allowed for it in its constitution as an "emergency measure".
This mirrors 1979-81 in the sense that the PLP has become detached from the Labour Party on the ground. The membership clearly wanted Corbyn last year though opening the floodgates to Conservative spoilers (and indeed other spoilers) was an act of unmitigated stupidity. Back in the late 70s, Militant (the Momentum of its day) was talking over CLPs and Union branches - is that happening now ? I don't sense it.
Clearly, a "sensible" Labour party is the Conservative nightmare just as the SDP was in 1981-82. We forget, because it was made up primarily of Labour MPs, how much Conservative support it attracted. I canvassed in Bromley in south east London in the bleak midwinter of February 1982 and the Conservative vote was disintegrating, The 1982 GLC elections would have been a bloodbath for the Conservatives.
The Falklands saved both the Conservative and Labour parties in different ways.
The SDP had until then coasted along on a tide of public goodwill and support - it had leaders in Jenkins, Owen and Williams who were liked and respected more outside Labour than within Foot's party. As a Liberal in the south, we welcomed them and Cyril Smith's comment wasn't widely shared apart from in the north where the SDP seemed likely to replace Labour as the dominant political force.
Yet none of this happened overnight - from the Dimbleby Lecture, it was a full 18 months until Limehouse. Owen came quite late to the idea of a new party as I recall. Things move faster now - if the Conservatives choose an outright LEAVE supporter, whither the Conservative REMAIN supporters ?
The parallel for me is the idea of the "king across the water" - as it was with Jenkins, so might it be for David Miliband. Were he to return and publicly endorse the new centre-left force, I think it would be significant.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Excellent to see you back Jack, and in fine fettle. I have to say that I really do not like the f word. I like arse (not obviously literally, my wife would be worried), and I swear like the proverbial trooper, or a Glaswegian, perhaps worse. But the f word.....it's probably the most unpleasant word we have in the dictionary, I cannot bring myself to write it.
FTSE 100 and 250 up quite nicely this morning I notice...
Only because Article 50 is now pushed into the future, indeed quite possibly indefinitely.
Not really, it's a correction to the overselling on Friday and Monday. The UK economy is still in relatively decent shape (though not great in absolute terms). The vote didn't change that and if Sterling is going to trade at $1.33-1.37 for the next few months that is probably a net gain for companies.
one thing we unequivocally know is that they are pro EU, rabidly so. It is a core, arguably the core, of their identity.
I have to say that I completely disagree with that. I would call them pragmatic above all else. They will not campaign on a return to the EU. They will campaign against Boris's betrayal of Leave voters and to get the Tories out. It would be more effective if Labour were united and doing it. But Labour isn't.
I have been mildly astonished at the genuine and deep anger of Remainers in Scotland since the result. As a Leave supporter I have been hectored and abused by people desperate to vent their frustration and disappointment. Sturgeon is looking to harness that energy and there is little doubt that a section of the Unionist vote is very angry with the English decision and more open to her siren songs than ever before.
Whether that will last who knows but certainly on the Scottish experience you should not underestimate how these people feel about the result of the referendum.
I think that remainer anger generally will become intense If things aren't handled properly. If we had voted to remain, leave voters will have voted for something they want and not been given it - so a profound disappointment not to get what you want. By voting to leave, remainer voters wanted to keep something they had, and have had it taken from them - there's a more intense visceral anger to that I think. Especially as we weren't expecting to lose it.
In Scotland, There will be even more anger among unionists at the thought that English voters were warned about the risks to the union and voted to leave anyway. I expect a creeping anti-English backlash to play a bigger part of the next indyref campaign - it will be a lot less positive than the previous Yes case.
My two Scottish contacts (both anti-Indy1) do not seem particularly angry. But they are sad and disappointed, both with the vote outcome and with the British parties. Both admiring of how Sturgeon has handled things and much more receptive to independence than before, provided it secures Scotland within the EU. This is the capital that Sturgeon is accumulating right now - apart possibly from Tim Farron she is the only politician emerging from this fiasco fortnight with any credit.
If Scotland leaves and goes to the EU, it will become the Greece of the North.
The fundamentals cannot be wished away, no matter how opportunistic Sturgeon is being.
Where both sides may be at cross purposes is in the belief that voters are largely motivated by money. It seems quite likely to me that Leave voters accept there is likely to be a short term reduction in growth, but that will be outweighed by long term benefits in terms of self-government and controlling immigration.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
A realignment is coming- not just in Labour. The notional majority of the government is gone because there are a number in Tory ranks who will move to the Remain party as soon as the split happens in Labour, which the liberals will join. That is why an election is certain. Socially liberal,middle of the Road and pragmatic, pro EU. One of the reasons Ukip now in a no lose situation. Tory grandees will be at the vanguard- Cameron Osborne Major.
And no more referendums. Ever.
No, you can already see the Tories begin to unite behind the leave vote. If May becomes the leader it will be complete, I took a straw pollof members I know over WhatsApp last night, in a May vs Boris contest May wins a fairly decent majority of votes. That's also among a group of voters in favour of leave overall. The leave members split 50/50 and the remain members were almost united in their support of Mrs May.
Hopefully other members can do the same and report on here, but if it is a final two of seriousness and gravitas vs piffle and classics, the first option will win. I think most members recognise we need a Thatcher, not a Hague.
Agree that the risk of Tory splits, aside from a few very pro-EU people, has largely gone away. The Tories' long-term problem now is not themselves, but the voters, if even 50% of the project fear stuff turns out to be well founded. Big mistakes tend to take a very long time to be forgotten. Still, labour is doing its best to make things easier for them, in the short term at least.
My best guess for where we might be in two years' time is a Tory government with a large majority becoming one of the most unpopular ever.
The Tory split has already happened. It's called UKIP.
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.
Disagreeing with you is not sneering at the choice of anyone. Leave made big promisrs to working men and women, they will be expected to deliver on them. Your cynical "all politicians lie" line will not wash, I'm afraid.
You're a decent bloke and I'm puzzled why you keep repeating this. "Leave" such as it was, persuaded people we should leave the EU, it is now the responsibility of the govt to carry out its wishes, nobody else.
So you feel no responsibility for the mess we appear to be sliding into? You have no regrets for the lies your leaders told to ge the result they wanted?
Just for the record, I thought some of the Remain propaganda was dishonest, too.
We are not sliding into a mess, you are another of the emotional headless chickens refeerred to earlier. The electorate spoke, it is called democracy, I'll live with the outcome.
An interesting piece by David and, as always, I don't agree with most of it but thank you for putting it forward.
Labour is a victim of its own democracy just as, arguably, the Conservatives are or will be. The days of the MPs getting together and quickly choosing a new leader (as happened with the departures of Macmillan, Wilson and Thatcher) are over and it's astonishing neither party has allowed for it in its constitution as an "emergency measure".
This mirrors 1979-81 in the sense that the PLP has become detached from the Labour Party on the ground. The membership clearly wanted Corbyn last year though opening the floodgates to Conservative spoilers (and indeed other spoilers) was an act of unmitigated stupidity. Back in the late 70s, Militant (the Momentum of its day) was talking over CLPs and Union branches - is that happening now ? I don't sense it.
Clearly, a "sensible" Labour party is the Conservative nightmare just as the SDP was in 1981-82. We forget, because it was made up primarily of Labour MPs, how much Conservative support it attracted. I canvassed in Bromley in south east London in the bleak midwinter of February 1982 and the Conservative vote was disintegrating, The 1982 GLC elections would have been a bloodbath for the Conservatives.
The Falklands saved both the Conservative and Labour parties in different ways.
The SDP had until then coasted along on a tide of public goodwill and support - it had leaders in Jenkins, Owen and Williams who were liked and respected more outside Labour than within Foot's party. As a Liberal in the south, we welcomed them and Cyril Smith's comment wasn't widely shared apart from in the north where the SDP seemed likely to replace Labour as the dominant political force.
Yet none of this happened overnight - from the Dimbleby Lecture, it was a full 18 months until Limehouse. Owen came quite late to the idea of a new party as I recall. Things move faster now - if the Conservatives choose an outright LEAVE supporter, whither the Conservative REMAIN supporters ?
The parallel for me is the idea of the "king across the water" - as it was with Jenkins, so might it be for David Miliband. Were he to return and publicly endorse the new centre-left force, I think it would be significant.
Great post.
stodge is a sublime poster....and this one reveals the depth and knowledge of his politics. I'll never forgive him (or her...I don't know) for going Brexit. When he or she revealed that it was an Et tu Brute moment for me....
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Ha ha ha! Bravo sir, bravo!*
*I just bought a copy of The Ice Twins - anyone want to swap??
We'll get what we want, trade deal and movement curbs.
Cameron is only saying what half the EU thinks anyway (esp eastern Europe).
In 10 years time they'll be pleading with us to rejoin.
I don't think we'll get financial market passporting and no free movement.
We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0925 hours - Sotheby's report massive interest from worldwide buyers upon news that they are to auction a figurative representation of the England football tactical plan against Iceland and signed by Charlie Falconer.
This modern masterpiece shows Roy Hogdson ahead a long snaking line of potential England goalscorers entitled "Breaking Point" and is seen by critics as the greatest artwork to come to the market since World War III was cancelled last Friday.
Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.
It's a strange world we've entered. Mass migration and the EU have made strange bedfellows.
Given that no one supposedly cared about the EU [hundreds of MORI thread headers] - it has caused a huge fuss
I feel liberated. I see the EU flag on things and can't wait for it to be wiped away.
Remember that time the nation had a collective nervous breakdown when we left a protectionist trading cartel ?
No wonder the footballers are too weak to win.
Speaking of football - what happens to Bosman now?
I'm very unclear what happens once we invoke Article 50. I know what it means on paper - but what will it mean in reality?
The leader of the Labour Party is irrelevant until it changes its message, last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration, any party that wants to win the next GE will have to pledge to control immigration.
That may be unpalatable to some but its true.
There's an interesting choice to be made here and changes aren't impossible. The position is that: 1. Traditionally the party has supported immigration, partly from Europhilia, partly to satisfy ethnic minority voters who wanteds to bring family over, and partly in reaction to racists. Far from all immigrants vote Labour (many Eastern Europeans are natural Conservatives, for instance), 2. It's perfectly obvious that one reason that many WWC voters are disillusioned with the party is this issue because they feel economically (or otherwise) threatened by mass immigration. It's less obvious that a moderate shift on this would bring them back. 3. Non-EU migration is no longer easy, nor is it automatically supported by ethnic minorities. Virtually nobody is in favour of unlimited immigrstion. 4. Many in the party like the cultural side of immigration - diversity etc. This is Jeremy's position (and mine), but he also hasn't endorsed unlimited immigration, merely observed correctly that it is/was a condition of EU membership. If we're no longer members, change is an option.
I'd expect the party to favour something on points-based lines at the next election, while flatly rejecting Trump-like hostility to Muslims or any other particular groups. I think that's also where the public mostly is. But those voters who feel it's the dominant issue will probably go UKIP anyway.
Well I never, Ukip propose a points based system and you call us racist, now you expect Labour to do the same.
A politician encapsulated in one line, you'll say anything that suits you, you have absolutely ZERO deep seated principles beyond gaining power.
FTSE 100 and 250 up quite nicely this morning I notice...
Only because Article 50 is now pushed into the future, indeed quite possibly indefinitely.
Yes, the markets foolishly thought a vote to leave the EU was a vote to Leave the EU. Now that it seems to just be a cite to chant conservative lease and no other changes it will all calm down.
The Labour Party has split twice and both times it’s been electorally disastrous for both sides. The “working man (and woman) in the North" surely want a) decent working conditions and b) decency and stability in public life. It’s the Methodism side of the founding fathers. It’s not unreasonable to look at the country around them and be upset by many of the changes they see. What WWC voters have to be careful of is being hoodwinked by a “defensive” ideology, overrideing their need for opportunity, as the working class Protestants in N. Ireland were by the Ulster Unionists.
Boris will help here. His betrayal of Leave voters is going to be epic and that will make many of them very keen to get rid of them by any means necessary.
Ukip will get that vote. Come the election they will attack both parties as not going far enough and keep the wwc vote, especially those who didn't vote before
Of course the fun then continues. GE2020 the Tories lose 20 seats to the Kippers and Labour lose 30 seats and there is no overall majority, who is going to blink first and do a deal with the kippers
I'd be surprised to see UKIP take any seats off the Tories - they singularly failed last time and if anything the Brexit vote has weakened them on the right.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
The Lib Dems could certainly regain ground in Surrey, Berkshire, Oxfordshire on the back of Brexit, in a way that Labour never could.
Mr. F, it'd be interesting to know to what extent English nationalism played a role.
Devolution's happened to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (the latter's a bit different for historical reasons) but England has not had corresponding devolution (indeed, the media and political class seem to rarely even acknowledge anyone might want an English Parliament).
In the last couple of years more promises about further power for Holyrood have been made, and the SNP poster helped win the Conservatives and deny Labour the keys to Number 10.
There was also a poll highlighted here that the more English someone saw themselves as (with varying degrees, including not at all and wholly British, as well as equally English and British) the likelier they were to have voted Leave.
Where both sides may be at cross purposes is in the belief that voters are largely motivated by money. It seems quite likely to me that Leave voters accept there is likely to be a short term reduction in growth, but that will be outweighed by long term benefits in terms of self-government and controlling immigration.
And what happens Sean when this short term economic hit doesn't control immigration? We are just a poorer country with crappier services, marginalised, a bit despised and mocked and dealing with immigrants. Great we can bring back metric measures in our shops.....
Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.
The electoral system is the problem. It also works against UKIP, the Greens and the LDs. It will work against Corbyn Labour too if there is a split.
Had a chat with a couple of colleagues today. Hard politics comes into play - have reached the conclusion that we can survive a 30MP / 200k members Momentum split better than a 100 MP / 100k Progress split.
Hearing rumours of active divorce discussions around the creation of a non-aggression pact - neither party to campaign or run against each other.
Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.
It's a strange world we've entered. Mass migration and the EU have made strange bedfellows.
Given that no one supposedly cared about the EU [hundreds of MORI thread headers] - it has caused a huge fuss
I feel liberated. I see the EU flag on things and can't wait for it to be wiped away.
Discovering how many people secretly cared deeply about being in the EU is perhaps the biggest surprise for me. Many, perhaps even most people I know ended up reluctantly voting on balance to Remain with (I assumed) no great enthusiasm, a position I could entirely understand even though my weighing of pros and cons came down on the other side.
But the widespread and intense outpouring of grief on our leaving the EU is baffling. Where were all these rabid Europhiles for the past several decades? I have rarely if ever met anyone who was so apparently enamoured of the EU as the chattering classes now seem to be. Very weird.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Ha ha ha! Bravo sir, bravo!*
*I just bought a copy of The Ice Twins - anyone want to swap??
I hope it didn't cost you more than the 99p I paid for a copy in Oxfam on Saturday!
A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum
More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour
FPT I posted this Re Corbyn.
The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.
They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.
"New Improved Labour"
The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.
I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.
Very unappealing
Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.
Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.
Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.
Dearie me.
Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.
You look silly and childish.
Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this: https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128
Indeed the political journey of Plato from Blair babe to ?Britain First? and beyond has been a site to behold and very amusing.
Excellent to see you back Jack, and in fine fettle. I have to say that I really do not like the f word. I like arse (not obviously literally, my wife would be worried), and I swear like the proverbial trooper, or a Glaswegian, perhaps worse. But the f word.....it's probably the most unpleasant word we have in the dictionary, I cannot bring myself to write it.
''Some EU members are waiting to see what deal the UK gets, before considering their own referendums.''
Britain is saying what people in the EU are thinking. We are about to turn this thing inside out. Already the eurocrats are talking about two speed solutions.
This is what leading in the EU REALLY means. The opposite of what we have been told for decades. It means realpolitik. It means us realising the very powerful position we are in, and using it to do the right thing.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
My impression ...... like Stodge I was a Liberal activist in the 80’s ...... was that the SDP were a top-down organisation. The consituency I knew best ..... Castle Point ....... only rarely elected Liberal councillors and so was given to the SDP. Yes people did come out of the woodwork to join but much of the on the ground stuff was done by Liberals.
I’m sure I’m not relying on False Memory Syndrome when I say that had it not been for the Falklands the Tories would have experienced disaster in 1983. Stodge’s experience reported in his earlier post was not unusual.
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I'd be sad to see Scotland leave, but I don't see it as a reason for the rest of us not to take a decision that I consider to be in the long term interest of the other 90% of the UK. If Scotland leaves, it will be because our political differences have become irreconcilable.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
The Lib Dems could certainly regain ground in Surrey, Berkshire, Oxfordshire on the back of Brexit, in a way that Labour never could.
Especially if Leadsome or Fox becomes Conservative leader. Boris - less so. Crabb, Morgan! or May (less so) presents great opportunity for UKIP.
Where both sides may be at cross purposes is in the belief that voters are largely motivated by money. It seems quite likely to me that Leave voters accept there is likely to be a short term reduction in growth, but that will be outweighed by long term benefits in terms of self-government and controlling immigration.
And what happens Sean when this short term economic hit doesn't control immigration? We are just a poorer country with crappier services, marginalised, a bit despised and mocked and dealing with immigrants. Great we can bring back metric measures in our shops.....
Excellent to see you back Jack, and in fine fettle. I have to say that I really do not like the f word. I like arse (not obviously literally, my wife would be worried), and I swear like the proverbial trooper, or a Glaswegian, perhaps worse. But the f word.....it's probably the most unpleasant word we have in the dictionary, I cannot bring myself to write it.
''We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.''
No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.
Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?
When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?
The fascinating thing is that I think Boris will finish as the 'proto-remain' candidate in the leadership election, with a much more pro-integration platform than May. Today's article from Truss is an early indicator.
Boris is the one who wanted to stay in the EU, but joined Leave for tactical reasons. May is the one who wanted to leave the EU, but stayed with remain for a combination of loyalty and tactics.
The weird thing at the moment, watching the debate in the Tory party, is that many of the fervent leavers think Boris is their candidate, with May the remain candidate. As the campaign progresses many of them are going to realise they are in the wrong side!
Boris's problem is that he never imagined becoming quite so tied to the leave platform, and promises, as he now is. He is famed for his 'flexibility" but even he is going to find it very difficult to get his position back to his original pro-EU (reformed) instincts....
I won't be voting for Boris.
The fact that Boris has Soames in his side now makes me think he is the Riebna candidate. Remain in everything but name.
Where both sides may be at cross purposes is in the belief that voters are largely motivated by money. It seems quite likely to me that Leave voters accept there is likely to be a short term reduction in growth, but that will be outweighed by long term benefits in terms of self-government and controlling immigration.
And what happens Sean when this short term economic hit doesn't control immigration? We are just a poorer country with crappier services, marginalised, a bit despised and mocked and dealing with immigrants. Great we can bring back metric measures in our shops.....
I'm more optimistic about the future than that.
To be fair, if we become a less prosperous country with crappier servicers immigrants won’t WANT to come!
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I'd be sad to see Scotland leave, but I don't see it as a reason for the rest of us not to take a decision that I consider to be in the long term interest of the other 90% of the UK. If Scotland leaves, it will be because our political differences have become irreconcilable.
I'd have thought greater devolution of powers to Holyrood and the chance to benefit from trade deals in a more global Britain, including potentially freer movement with places like Australia and New Zealand, represent a fantastic opportunity for Scotland within the UK, compared to a very minor voice inside a federalised EU that may necessitate adopting the euro.
May has spent 6 years at the Home Office failing to control immigration. What makes anyone think that if she becomes PM she will do anything whatsoever to control immigration?
UKIP will have a field day with May as PM.
Meanwhile everyone left of centre can just keep saying "Nasty Party" whatever policies she tries to implement.
Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.
I don't think there is any choice.
I also think people are underestimating the chances of such a party. The SDP was a breakaway of 4, this would be a breakaway of what? 150+? It would take the soft left with it, which is critical. Plus the political landscape is in flux now, everything is up for grabs. Better still, the Tory Party is weak and stumbling. This isn't the 80s.
I think that to succeed it does need to be a centre-left party though. And I say that as a centrist. You can still win centrist votes from a centre-left position.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
SKY earlier were highlighting that people are putting on hold buying curtains and cushions.
The End of Days are here, as set out in Revelations "and the Lord will smite the buyers of scatter cushions..."
They actually said that a third of people are putting off buying lots of things, including soft furnishings. But hey, it's only jobs in interiors that will be affected right?
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I don't think I've ever opined on Scottish independence (happen to prefer the Union to stay together, but understand if the Scots want to break away/back to the EU); and definitely agree a house price correction is due and positive.
However, it is analagous to the Cons' predicament. They came in with an asset price bubble and household debt at dangerously high levels. They have worked cautiously to address each issue - mortgage approvals have declined, although there is still work to be done on household balance sheets.
All of which however, has nothing to do with the EU and our decision to leave it, and your comments on the EFTA (there was a great post by @viewcode yesterday on likely options) simply reinforces my point that you, and other thoughtful PB Leavers are at odds with the vast majority of UK Leavers.
They neither know what EFTA is, nor care. They want a fall in immigration.
Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.
The electoral system is the problem. It also works against UKIP, the Greens and the LDs. It will work against Corbyn Labour too if there is a split.
Maybe not if they don't stand against each other. However that would assume that the two separate parties maintained the same poll ratings as the Labour party as a whole. Of course it's possible that CorbynLabour candidates may fall to LibDems or UKIP whereas ContinuityLabour might prosper. What they both need to do is also have non-aggression pacts with LibDems and Greens and to campaign for PR. It's then possible for a rainbow coalition to pass PR for the HoC. Then even the Toris could join in Eurosceptics/Major's Bastards splitting from Moderates.
Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.
It's a strange world we've entered. Mass migration and the EU have made strange bedfellows.
Given that no one supposedly cared about the EU [hundreds of MORI thread headers] - it has caused a huge fuss
I feel liberated. I see the EU flag on things and can't wait for it to be wiped away.
Discovering how many people secretly cared deeply about being in the EU is perhaps the biggest surprise for me. Many, perhaps even most people I know ended up reluctantly voting on balance to Remain with (I assumed) no great enthusiasm, a position I could entirely understand even though my weighing of pros and cons came down on the other side.
But the widespread and intense outpouring of grief on our leaving the EU is baffling. Where were all these rabid Europhiles for the past several decades? I have rarely if ever met anyone who was so apparently enamoured of the EU as the chattering classes now seem to be. Very weird.
The EU modus operandi has always been mission creep by stealth, perhaps keeping quiet and repeatedly claiming there was no interest in the EU was deliberate - here endith the conspiracy theory
I think Labour need to first get a serious candidate who could be a PM (Hilary Benn?), see off Corbyn in a one-on-one election (won't be easy, but is doable), and then form a shadow-cabinet team of serious players who are mixture of people who have experience of the corridors of power (the Miibands, Cooper, get Ed Balls back, Byrne, Watson, Harman, Cruddas, Beckett) and young guns (Alexander, Woodcock etc). I know some of the 'grandees' will seem like yesterday's people but familiarity will be reassuring.
Labour then need a really positive policy agenda that incorporates elements of 'socialism' (spending and caring more on the elderly and needy - there is a desire for it out there in the country, and building lots of affordable council houses.... tax rises??) with a clear-headed approach to living within our means economically (luckily for Labour, the Tories would've brought the deficit into line by the time they next get a serious chance at power).
I think the land lies pretty well for Labour if they get their act together. Although Scotland remains a big elephant in the room. Winning back seats in north of the border will take some finesse and clever political operating.
Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.
I don't think there is any choice.
I also think people are underestimating the chances of such a party. The SDP was a breakaway of 4, this would be a breakaway of what? 150+? It would take the soft left with it, which is critical. Plus the political landscape is in flux now, everything is up for grabs. Better still, the Tory Party is weak and stumbling. This isn't the 80s.
I think that to succeed it does need to be a centre-left party though. And I say that as a centrist. You can still win centrist votes from a centre-left position.
The SDP had 4 leaders, but they were supported by 30 or so (IIRC) Labour MP’s.
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I don't think I've ever opined on Scottish independence (happen to prefer the Union to stay together, but understand if the Scots want to break away/back to the EU); and definitely agree a house price correction is due and positive.
However, it is analagous to the Cons' predicament. They came in with an asset price bubble and household debt at dangerously high levels. They have worked cautiously to address each issue - mortgage approvals have declined, although there is still work to be done on household balance sheets.
All of which however, has nothing to do with the EU and our decision to leave it, and your comments on the EFTA (there was a great post by @viewcode yesterday on likely options) simply reinforces my point that you, and other thoughtful PB Leavers are at odds with the vast majority of UK Leavers.
They neither know what EFTA is, nor care. They want a fall in immigration.
Sorry Topping. That wasn't meant to be a dig at you. I gad assumed you regarded Scottish Independence as a bad thing. My bad to assume.
If Labour were to campaign for staying in the EU at next election (assuming before article 50), could they get the support of the city/big business, and hence big doners, over tories who would be proposing at best an EEA agreement without the financial passport? (there is no way the EU will allow the financial passport if we go down the EEA route - the news channels in France are practically salivating over Brexit and the opportunities for Paris as a finance centre now)
This would require the rest of the labour platform to not be completely socialist however, so maybe it would be SDP2 that big business back
Edit: actually I've just read something saying we would automatically have financial passporting in the EEA/EFTA, Switzerland doesn't right? - I didn't think that was the case but please correct me if mistaken!
I do not see a bright future for any new leader, especially if it is Boris without a GE. The current majority is too small - and there is just as much opportunity for people in the party on the left to rebel as for those on the right - or have we forgotten the benefits nonsense? a new mandate and a comfortable majority is essential.
The Corbyn cult is quite interesting. I can't help but think that for years this man has been ignored, an old school firebrand, isolated, making his own meetings with his comradely chums equally despised, laughed and sneered at by his Parliamentary colleagues, voted Parliamentary beard of the year as a piss take. Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.
I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
1997 was a strategic disaster for the Lib Dems (or more accurately, the decisions that led to it were). Abandoning equidistance and engaging in strategic coordiation with Labour ensured that when Labour eventually became less popular than the Tories, they would be dragged down too. Worse, natural dynamics meant that if the GE produced NOM - quite likely given the numbers - the Lib Dems would be faced with the choice of backing a tired an discredited regime or abandoning all their tactical voters to go with the Tories.
An SDP2 cannot tear any more chunks out of the Tories than blair did, for the same reason: 25-30% of the electorate is moderate centre-right and will not vote for a left-of-centre party. I'd be more worried about UKIP there, except that (1) their ground game and leadership are poor and (2) it makes more sense for them to go left and exploit the socially conservative voters neither Corbyn nor Eagle would appeal to.
And do the Lib Dems have that much of a councillor base? Isn't it now highly concentrated in a small number of authorities? The price of all that targetting in the 1990s/2000s was writing off enormous parts of the country.
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I don't think I've ever opined on Scottish independence (happen to prefer the Union to stay together, but understand if the Scots want to break away/back to the EU); and definitely agree a house price correction is due and positive.
However, it is analagous to the Cons' predicament. They came in with an asset price bubble and household debt at dangerously high levels. They have worked cautiously to address each issue - mortgage approvals have declined, although there is still work to be done on household balance sheets.
All of which however, has nothing to do with the EU and our decision to leave it, and your comments on the EFTA (there was a great post by @viewcode yesterday on likely options) simply reinforces my point that you, and other thoughtful PB Leavers are at odds with the vast majority of UK Leavers.
They neither know what EFTA is, nor care. They want a fall in immigration.
Sorry Topping. That wasn't meant to be a dig at you. I gad assumed you regarded Scottish Independence as a bad thing. My bad to assume.
I would prefer the Scots to remain within the Union but as ever with these things, it is their call. I remember having sympathy with the "Cry Freedom" argument, less so with the "this will be economically fine" one.
I think economically Scottish Independence would indeed be bad, and as with Brexit, I find it interesting that people would vote against their self-interest to such a large degree, but as we are finding out with votes to break away...so what?
Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.
I don't think there is any choice.
I also think people are underestimating the chances of such a party. The SDP was a breakaway of 4, this would be a breakaway of what? 150+? It would take the soft left with it, which is critical. Plus the political landscape is in flux now, everything is up for grabs. Better still, the Tory Party is weak and stumbling. This isn't the 80s.
I think that to succeed it does need to be a centre-left party though. And I say that as a centrist. You can still win centrist votes from a centre-left position.
The SDP had 4 leaders, but they were supported by 30 or so (IIRC) Labour MP’s.
If 150 Labour MPs split, how many of them would tale their constituency parties with them? Then who would benefit from the official vs real Labour candidates at the election?
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
I'd be sad to see Scotland leave, but I don't see it as a reason for the rest of us not to take a decision that I consider to be in the long term interest of the other 90% of the UK. If Scotland leaves, it will be because our political differences have become irreconcilable.
Ditto. I'd rather good natured neighbours than unhappy flatmates.
The membership clearly wanted Corbyn last year though opening the floodgates to Conservative spoilers (and indeed other spoilers) was an act of unmitigated stupidity.
Taking this part out of context, although the £3 scheme might not have turned out for the best, it is not on paper an obviously worse idea than American parties allowing non-aligned voters to pick their presidential candidates, or the Conservative Party's open primaries.
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0948 - Following a vote of the PLP it is reported that with complete clarity that 170 Labour MP's have no confidence that Lord Falconer will have the confidence to make some decision in total and complete confidence that his decision will be confidential.
But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.
The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.
Come on, David, you can do better than this nonsense.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
The Lib Dems could certainly regain ground in Surrey, Berkshire, Oxfordshire on the back of Brexit, in a way that Labour never could.
Especially if Leadsome or Fox becomes Conservative leader. Boris - less so. Crabb, Morgan! or May (less so) presents great opportunity for UKIP.
I gather Crabb is pitching for the blue collar Tories.
I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.
@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.
Worth noting that some of the things you and Jonathan consider to be negative outcomes I consider to be positives. Both Scottish Independence and a strong negative move on house prices are things I would be very pleased to see.
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,
that's not what it said on the ballot
Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.
not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.
... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%. Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008, the French have said there borders are not moving so no refugee camps in Kent, the former governor of the Bank Of England told us yesterday the the economic case was bullshit, etc etc. Both sides lied massively, neither has any case to try and take the moral high ground over the other, get over it.
Had a chat with a couple of colleagues today. Hard politics comes into play - have reached the conclusion that we can survive a 30MP / 200k members Momentum split better than a 100 MP / 100k Progress split.
Hearing rumours of active divorce discussions around the creation of a non-aggression pact - neither party to campaign or run against each other.
I predict Labour gets more seats than Progress in that scenario.
I cant see a non agression pact either myself. I wouldnt vote Progress in Chesterfield for example.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
This would be the sensible....to allow a straight forward contest between a Corbynite (I would say Lewis rather than McDonnell), and a moderate.
But, I posted earlier....I think Corbyn may well be an ill man, deluded, angry, guided by his own personal messianic, self righteous thoughts, and with sociopathic tendancies, in which case, he may not be able to be talked out of running again, even by his closest advisers.
My impression ...... like Stodge I was a Liberal activist in the 80’s ...... was that the SDP were a top-down organisation. The consituency I knew best ..... Castle Point ....... only rarely elected Liberal councillors and so was given to the SDP. Yes people did come out of the woodwork to join but much of the on the ground stuff was done by Liberals.
I’m sure I’m not relying on False Memory Syndrome when I say that had it not been for the Falklands the Tories would have experienced disaster in 1983. Stodge’s experience reported in his earlier post was not unusual.
Oh Lord, I might have seen you at an Assembly at Harrogate or Llandudno or Eastbourne or somewhere in a bar....
Yes, SDP was very top down - it needed to be as it had no ground infrastructure. The first SDP people I met were not atypical - a ex-Labour activist, an ex-Tory member and someone who had never been in a political party. The ex-Labour man was initially suspicious of the Liberals while the other two were much friendlier.
We put out a newsletter called Alliance Briefing (no Focus there). The ex-Labour man was a professional typesetter and the non party man knew a printer. By today's standards it was awful - in 1981 it was state of the art.
As I was in the weakest of the then four Bromley constituencies from a Liberal point of view, I was part of the liaison between the SDP and the Liberals across Bromley. The SDP stayed out of Orpington which still had a strong Liberal branch even though the late Lord Avebury had lost the seat back in 1970. Instead, the SDP focussed on Chislehurst which had always had a Labour presence in the Crays and Ravensbourne.
I have to say even though we were two separate parties, we worked together almost from minute one as the Alliance.
Quiz competition of the day. In The Italian Job film were the final words as the bus teetered on the cliff- A.Hang on a minute lads. Ive got a great idea or B.Seumas I'm not sure this is a great idea either? Answers on a postcard to Momentum.
The Corbyn cult is quite interesting. I can't help but think that for years this man has been ignored, an old school firebrand, isolated, making his own meetings with his comradely chums equally despised, laughed and sneered at by his Parliamentary colleagues, voted Parliamentary beard of the year as a piss take. Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.
I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.
May has spent 6 years at the Home Office failing to control immigration. What makes anyone think that if she becomes PM she will do anything whatsoever to control immigration?
UKIP will have a field day with May as PM.
Meanwhile everyone left of centre can just keep saying "Nasty Party" whatever policies she tries to implement.
She's also quite authoritarian. Her biggest blackmark for me is swapping sides to hedge her bets, then hid during the whole campaign. That's not leadership using any yardstick.
Looking at what she does rather than says speaks volumes.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
SKY earlier were highlighting that people are putting on hold buying curtains and cushions.
The End of Days are here, as set out in Revelations "and the Lord will smite the buyers of scatter cushions..."
They actually said that a third of people are putting off buying lots of things, including soft furnishings. But hey, it's only jobs in interiors that will be affected right?
But since they took those soundings, the buyers have come back for sterling and shares. It can't be too long before people come to their senses, shrug their shoulders, go "meh" and continue to implement their previous cushion-buying intentions.
If Labour were to campaign for staying in the EU at next election (assuming before article 50), could they get the support of the city/big business, and hence big doners, over tories who would be proposing at best an EEA agreement without the financial passport? (there is no way the EU will allow the financial passport if we go down the EEA route - the news channels in France are practically salivating over Brexit and the opportunities for Paris as a finance centre now)
This would require the rest of the labour platform to not be completely socialist however, so maybe it would be SDP2 that big business back
Edit: actually I've just read something saying we would automatically have financial passporting in the EEA/EFTA, Switzerland doesn't right? - I didn't think that was the case but please correct me if mistaken!
Switzerland isn't in the EEA, they have a separate agreement for the financial passport. EEA nations have it automatically. We would not accept a deal that had free movement and no financial passport. If we want to restrict free movement, then I believe the cost will be the passport.
The French can salivate all they like about opportunities for Paris, but as many have said here before, it will be Dublin that benefits the most.
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008
My impression ...... like Stodge I was a Liberal activist in the 80’s ...... was that the SDP were a top-down organisation. The consituency I knew best ..... Castle Point ....... only rarely elected Liberal councillors and so was given to the SDP. Yes people did come out of the woodwork to join but much of the on the ground stuff was done by Liberals.
I’m sure I’m not relying on False Memory Syndrome when I say that had it not been for the Falklands the Tories would have experienced disaster in 1983. Stodge’s experience reported in his earlier post was not unusual.
Oh Lord, I might have seen you at an Assembly at Harrogate or Llandudno or Eastbourne or somewhere in a bar....
Yes, SDP was very top down - it needed to be as it had no ground infrastructure. The first SDP people I met were not atypical - a ex-Labour activist, an ex-Tory member and someone who had never been in a political party. The ex-Labour man was initially suspicious of the Liberals while the other two were much friendlier.
We put out a newsletter called Alliance Briefing (no Focus there). The ex-Labour man was a professional typesetter and the non party man knew a printer. By today's standards it was awful - in 1981 it was state of the art.
As I was in the weakest of the then four Bromley constituencies from a Liberal point of view, I was part of the liaison between the SDP and the Liberals across Bromley. The SDP stayed out of Orpington which still had a strong Liberal branch even though the late Lord Avebury had lost the seat back in 1970. Instead, the SDP focussed on Chislehurst which had always had a Labour presence in the Crays and Ravensbourne.
I have to say even though we were two separate parties, we worked together almost from minute one as the Alliance.
Don’t recall those three Conferences; do recall Scarborough, but Conferences of all sorts tend to get fuzzy in the mind. For some reason!
One SDP senior activist I met was Sue Slipman, who was the candidate for Basildon. IIRC she’d been a Communist in her NUS days.
And yes, co-operation was excellent. We really felt we were getting somewhere for a while.
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
This would be the sensible....to allow a straight forward contest between a Corbynite (I would say Lewis rather than McDonnell), and a moderate.
But, I posted earlier....I think Corbyn may well be an ill man, deluded, angry, guided by his own personal messianic, self righteous thoughts, and with sociopathic tendancies, in which case, he may not be able to be talked out of running again, even by his closest advisers.
There is no evidence that he is mentally ill. It is necessary to understand where the hard left is coming from. To them "the party" means the grassroots. Parliamentary representatives are no more than a couple of hundred party members who merit no special consideration. In this sense his actions are logical: he will not resign because he has not lost the confidence of the party as he sees it.
The membership clearly wanted Corbyn last year though opening the floodgates to Conservative spoilers (and indeed other spoilers) was an act of unmitigated stupidity.
Taking this part out of context, although the £3 scheme might not have turned out for the best, it is not on paper an obviously worse idea than American parties allowing non-aligned voters to pick their presidential candidates, or the Conservative Party's open primaries.
The £3 scheme wasn't a daft idea in and of itself - the lunacy was the MP's not doing the job that was now required of them (ie only putting forward candidates that they could genuinely support). I would also posit that the 15% threshold is a little low, and actually you would be better having a much higher threshold, but with MP's being able to 'endorse' multiple candidates, but that leads to other issues (tactical non-support to help your preferred candidate for example)
Donnez moi un break. If we are talking about enormous lies we better not consider World War 3, the economic apocalypse appears to be fizzling after getting just below where we were in February and about triple where we were in 2008
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
This would be the sensible....to allow a straight forward contest between a Corbynite (I would say Lewis rather than McDonnell), and a moderate.
But, I posted earlier....I think Corbyn may well be an ill man, deluded, angry, guided by his own personal messianic, self righteous thoughts, and with sociopathic tendancies, in which case, he may not be able to be talked out of running again, even by his closest advisers.
I think he would definitely stand aside for the Peoples Chancellor and maybe for Lewis
@RobDotHutton: Call it Clegg's Law Of Politics: even if you didn't actually promise it, if voters think you did, you're stuffed. https://t.co/PkgHxh7G20
May has spent 6 years at the Home Office failing to control immigration. What makes anyone think that if she becomes PM she will do anything whatsoever to control immigration?
UKIP will have a field day with May as PM.
Meanwhile everyone left of centre can just keep saying "Nasty Party" whatever policies she tries to implement.
She's also quite authoritarian. Her biggest blackmark for me is swapping sides to hedge her bets, then hid during the whole campaign. That's not leadership using any yardstick.
Looking at what she does rather than says speaks volumes.
I simply can't fathom why the membership (or MPs) would go for someone who did nothing during the most important political event of our lives bar give one speech so disingenuous in nature that even Boris Johnson would go, "Now hold on a minute" due it's attempts at political chameleoneryness.
Had a chat with a couple of colleagues today. Hard politics comes into play - have reached the conclusion that we can survive a 30MP / 200k members Momentum split better than a 100 MP / 100k Progress split.
Hearing rumours of active divorce discussions around the creation of a non-aggression pact - neither party to campaign or run against each other.
I predict Labour gets more seats than Progress in that scenario.
I cant see a non agression pact either myself. I wouldnt vote Progress in Chesterfield for example.
Torys are the real winners though.
The only way a non-aggression pact could work is if both sides have equal numbers of MPs otherwise the minority faction is limiting its potential to gain any seats at the election.
If Labour were to campaign for staying in the EU at next election (assuming before article 50), could they get the support of the city/big business, and hence big doners, over tories who would be proposing at best an EEA agreement without the financial passport? (there is no way the EU will allow the financial passport if we go down the EEA route - the news channels in France are practically salivating over Brexit and the opportunities for Paris as a finance centre now)
This would require the rest of the labour platform to not be completely socialist however, so maybe it would be SDP2 that big business back
Edit: actually I've just read something saying we would automatically have financial passporting in the EEA/EFTA, Switzerland doesn't right? - I didn't think that was the case but please correct me if mistaken!
Switzerland isn't in the EEA, they have a separate agreement for the financial passport. EEA nations have it automatically. We would not accept a deal that had free movement and no financial passport. If we want to restrict free movement, then I believe the cost will be the passport.
The French can salivate all they like about opportunities for Paris, but as many have said here before, it will be Dublin that benefits the most.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".
Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?
SKY earlier were highlighting that people are putting on hold buying curtains and cushions.
The End of Days are here, as set out in Revelations "and the Lord will smite the buyers of scatter cushions..."
I wish my wife would put on hold buying of cushions.
FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News
1004 hours - The BBC confirm that David Dimbleby will head up the Shadow Cabinet - Falconer REMAIN/LEAVE results show. AndyJS of PB indicates he will provide a spreadsheet.
My impression ...... like Stodge I was a Liberal activist in the 80’s ...... was that the SDP were a top-down organisation. The consituency I knew best ..... Castle Point ....... only rarely elected Liberal councillors and so was given to the SDP. Yes people did come out of the woodwork to join but much of the on the ground stuff was done by Liberals.
I’m sure I’m not relying on False Memory Syndrome when I say that had it not been for the Falklands the Tories would have experienced disaster in 1983. Stodge’s experience reported in his earlier post was not unusual.
Oh Lord, I might have seen you at an Assembly at Harrogate or Llandudno or Eastbourne or somewhere in a bar....
Yes, SDP was very top down - it needed to be as it had no ground infrastructure. The first SDP people I met were not atypical - a ex-Labour activist, an ex-Tory member and someone who had never been in a political party. The ex-Labour man was initially suspicious of the Liberals while the other two were much friendlier.
We put out a newsletter called Alliance Briefing (no Focus there). The ex-Labour man was a professional typesetter and the non party man knew a printer. By today's standards it was awful - in 1981 it was state of the art.
As I was in the weakest of the then four Bromley constituencies from a Liberal point of view, I was part of the liaison between the SDP and the Liberals across Bromley. The SDP stayed out of Orpington which still had a strong Liberal branch even though the late Lord Avebury had lost the seat back in 1970. Instead, the SDP focussed on Chislehurst which had always had a Labour presence in the Crays and Ravensbourne.
I have to say even though we were two separate parties, we worked together almost from minute one as the Alliance.
And failed miserably to prevent 15 years of Tory Government?
Comments
The End of Days are here, as set out in Revelations "and the Lord will smite the buyers of scatter cushions..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/brexit-contagion-uk-vote-raises-fears-of-a-tsunami-of-eu-members/
If Scotland leaves and goes to the EU, it will become the Greece of the North.
The fundamentals cannot be wished away, no matter how opportunistic Sturgeon is being.
The Liberals had just 12 MPs after 1979 - the SDP defectors were in the 40s numerically. It didn't matter. What the LDs have now that they didn't have then was a Councillor base and much more local activity than was the case.
Yes, there will be areas where any new party will have no Liberal presence and others where there are thriving branches. That was the case then.
It's the ultimate nightmare for Conservatives like you as it was then - the new party and the Liberals tearing chunks out of both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote and advancing on Westminster.
It benefits the Conservatives to keep the opposition divided as it did in the 1980s and early 90s. 1997 was a reminder of how it can be if the opposition gets its together - fancy that again ?
I do also believe there was an overreaction in the markets on Friday which is now slowly going to correct itself and that if our final destination is going to be EFTA (by no means certain of course) then the fear mongering from some elements of Remain will have been proved to be as ridiculous as many of us regard them
*I just bought a copy of The Ice Twins - anyone want to swap??
He said their immigration policy caused Brexit, and Britain will not accept a trade deal without an immigration deal.
We have to choose which we want: London as the EU's financial and tech capital and continued free movement (albeit with much more freedom re benefits), or to lose a chunk of those industries but to fundamentally change our immigration policy.
0925 hours - Sotheby's report massive interest from worldwide buyers upon news that they are to auction a figurative representation of the England football tactical plan against Iceland and signed by Charlie Falconer.
This modern masterpiece shows Roy Hogdson ahead a long snaking line of potential England goalscorers entitled "Breaking Point" and is seen by critics as the greatest artwork to come to the market since World War III was cancelled last Friday.
I'm very unclear what happens once we invoke Article 50. I know what it means on paper - but what will it mean in reality?
A politician encapsulated in one line, you'll say anything that suits you, you have absolutely ZERO deep seated principles beyond gaining power.
Devolution's happened to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (the latter's a bit different for historical reasons) but England has not had corresponding devolution (indeed, the media and political class seem to rarely even acknowledge anyone might want an English Parliament).
In the last couple of years more promises about further power for Holyrood have been made, and the SNP poster helped win the Conservatives and deny Labour the keys to Number 10.
There was also a poll highlighted here that the more English someone saw themselves as (with varying degrees, including not at all and wholly British, as well as equally English and British) the likelier they were to have voted Leave.
Great we can bring back metric measures in our shops.....
Hearing rumours of active divorce discussions around the creation of a non-aggression pact - neither party to campaign or run against each other.
who is the tiny man standing in front of boris and holding up this sign?
But the widespread and intense outpouring of grief on our leaving the EU is baffling. Where were all these rabid Europhiles for the past several decades? I have rarely if ever met anyone who was so apparently enamoured of the EU as the chattering classes now seem to be. Very weird.
I can see why there's surprise that didn't get some airtime.
Falconer ....
Britain is saying what people in the EU are thinking. We are about to turn this thing inside out. Already the eurocrats are talking about two speed solutions.
This is what leading in the EU REALLY means. The opposite of what we have been told for decades. It means realpolitik. It means us realising the very powerful position we are in, and using it to do the right thing.
I wouldn't rule out us staying in now.
I’m sure I’m not relying on False Memory Syndrome when I say that had it not been for the Falklands the Tories would have experienced disaster in 1983. Stodge’s experience reported in his earlier post was not unusual.
No I think you;re wrong. I think we will get both.
Who is Merkel to tell us we can't? who is Juncker?
When half of Europe completely agrees with us and wants us to stay? When every leader in the region is facing calls for referendums exactly along Britain's lines?
Just without us.
UKIP will have a field day with May as PM.
Meanwhile everyone left of centre can just keep saying "Nasty Party" whatever policies she tries to implement.
I also think people are underestimating the chances of such a party. The SDP was a breakaway of 4, this would be a breakaway of what? 150+? It would take the soft left with it, which is critical. Plus the political landscape is in flux now, everything is up for grabs. Better still, the Tory Party is weak and stumbling. This isn't the 80s.
I think that to succeed it does need to be a centre-left party though. And I say that as a centrist. You can still win centrist votes from a centre-left position.
However, it is analagous to the Cons' predicament. They came in with an asset price bubble and household debt at dangerously high levels. They have worked cautiously to address each issue - mortgage approvals have declined, although there is still work to be done on household balance sheets.
All of which however, has nothing to do with the EU and our decision to leave it, and your comments on the EFTA (there was a great post by @viewcode yesterday on likely options) simply reinforces my point that you, and other thoughtful PB Leavers are at odds with the vast majority of UK Leavers.
They neither know what EFTA is, nor care. They want a fall in immigration.
Of course it's possible that CorbynLabour candidates may fall to LibDems or UKIP whereas ContinuityLabour might prosper.
What they both need to do is also have non-aggression pacts with LibDems and Greens and to campaign for PR. It's then possible for a rainbow coalition to pass PR for the HoC. Then even the Toris could join in Eurosceptics/Major's Bastards splitting from Moderates.
Great post.
I think Labour need to first get a serious candidate who could be a PM (Hilary Benn?), see off Corbyn in a one-on-one election (won't be easy, but is doable), and then form a shadow-cabinet team of serious players who are mixture of people who have experience of the corridors of power (the Miibands, Cooper, get Ed Balls back, Byrne, Watson, Harman, Cruddas, Beckett) and young guns (Alexander, Woodcock etc). I know some of the 'grandees' will seem like yesterday's people but familiarity will be reassuring.
Labour then need a really positive policy agenda that incorporates elements of 'socialism' (spending and caring more on the elderly and needy - there is a desire for it out there in the country, and building lots of affordable council houses.... tax rises??) with a clear-headed approach to living within our means economically (luckily for Labour, the Tories would've brought the deficit into line by the time they next get a serious chance at power).
I think the land lies pretty well for Labour if they get their act together. Although Scotland remains a big elephant in the room. Winning back seats in north of the border will take some finesse and clever political operating.
#GetsPopcorn
Jezza tells McDonnell or Lewis that if they got on the ballot he will stand down.
Will Labour MPs be prepared to nominate either?
If not Jezza wins the party vote and deselections results in SDP2
Tory reign for 15 years,
The current idea by the splitters is doomed
Eagle is Kendall level of support
Watson is Cooper level of support
Jezza is over 50% on first ballot
The splitters really hadn't thought this through had they
This would require the rest of the labour platform to not be completely socialist however, so maybe it would be SDP2 that big business back
Edit: actually I've just read something saying we would automatically have financial passporting in the EEA/EFTA, Switzerland doesn't right? - I didn't think that was the case but please correct me if mistaken!
Drip, drip, drip. It just accumulates, and the hatred builds up. He is the Thomas Hamilton equivalent. Last year the membership bought him an AK47 through the vote, this year he has trained how to use it and bought a shed load of ammo, and in the next weeks he is going to go out and slaughter his loathed Parliamentary colleagues.
I do honestly think that Corbyn has some kind of mental health condition. He is a sociopath who believes his own righteousness, and is surrounded by an inner clique that feeds this madness for their own ends. He has the same affliction that warped Mair the other week.
An SDP2 cannot tear any more chunks out of the Tories than blair did, for the same reason: 25-30% of the electorate is moderate centre-right and will not vote for a left-of-centre party. I'd be more worried about UKIP there, except that (1) their ground game and leadership are poor and (2) it makes more sense for them to go left and exploit the socially conservative voters neither Corbyn nor Eagle would appeal to.
And do the Lib Dems have that much of a councillor base? Isn't it now highly concentrated in a small number of authorities? The price of all that targetting in the 1990s/2000s was writing off enormous parts of the country.
I think economically Scottish Independence would indeed be bad, and as with Brexit, I find it interesting that people would vote against their self-interest to such a large degree, but as we are finding out with votes to break away...so what?
0948 - Following a vote of the PLP it is reported that with complete clarity that 170 Labour MP's have no confidence that Lord Falconer will have the confidence to make some decision in total and complete confidence that his decision will be confidential.
I cant see a non agression pact either myself. I wouldnt vote Progress in Chesterfield for example.
Torys are the real winners though.
But, I posted earlier....I think Corbyn may well be an ill man, deluded, angry, guided by his own personal messianic, self righteous thoughts, and with sociopathic tendancies, in which case, he may not be able to be talked out of running again, even by his closest advisers.
Yes, SDP was very top down - it needed to be as it had no ground infrastructure. The first SDP people I met were not atypical - a ex-Labour activist, an ex-Tory member and someone who had never been in a political party. The ex-Labour man was initially suspicious of the Liberals while the other two were much friendlier.
We put out a newsletter called Alliance Briefing (no Focus there). The ex-Labour man was a professional typesetter and the non party man knew a printer. By today's standards it was awful - in 1981 it was state of the art.
As I was in the weakest of the then four Bromley constituencies from a Liberal point of view, I was part of the liaison between the SDP and the Liberals across Bromley. The SDP stayed out of Orpington which still had a strong Liberal branch even though the late Lord Avebury had lost the seat back in 1970. Instead, the SDP focussed on Chislehurst which had always had a Labour presence in the Crays and Ravensbourne.
I have to say even though we were two separate parties, we worked together almost from minute one as the Alliance.
In The Italian Job film were the final words as the bus teetered on the cliff-
A.Hang on a minute lads. Ive got a great idea or
B.Seumas I'm not sure this is a great idea either?
Answers on a postcard to Momentum.
Looking at what she does rather than says speaks volumes.
L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N.
The French can salivate all they like about opportunities for Paris, but as many have said here before, it will be Dublin that benefits the most.
0955 hours - Buckingham Palace refuse to comment on reports that the Queen asked for three good reasons for the existence of Lord Falconer.
And as for the economy
https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/748011677317275648
Nothing to see here...
One SDP senior activist I met was Sue Slipman, who was the candidate for Basildon. IIRC she’d been a Communist in her NUS days.
And yes, co-operation was excellent. We really felt we were getting somewhere for a while.
Anyone investing on a 5 day timescale is well ill advised.
@faisalislam: Ex Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's view: obvious, he says, that biggest economic losers from Brexit, is Britain itself: https://t.co/6YAgwHPUg4
@RobDotHutton: Call it Clegg's Law Of Politics: even if you didn't actually promise it, if voters think you did, you're stuffed. https://t.co/PkgHxh7G20
1004 hours - The BBC confirm that David Dimbleby will head up the Shadow Cabinet - Falconer REMAIN/LEAVE results show. AndyJS of PB indicates he will provide a spreadsheet.