politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn say Jez will carry on if the confidence motion

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

What?

TGOHF said:

So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

Richard_Tyndall said:

anotherDave said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Fishing said:

shiney2 said:

Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

I think Switzerland is better than Norway, though hardly perfect.

The contribution would be far smaller than we pay now - both Robert Smithson and I using EFTA's own calculations came up with a total UK contribution of around £2 billion gross compared to £15 billion gross at the moment.

The amount of EU legislation that applies to the single market is less than 10% of what we are subjected to now.

The danger is that wider legislation gets labelled single market.

I think that's how the EU got round our social policy opt out.

Not possible as the EFTA countries have a veto on that. Nothing can be added to the EEA agreement without explicit agreement from the EFTA countries. This is not a case of an internal body reinterpreting rules but of an external treaty that has to be agreed by both sides.

PlatoSaid said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SeanT said:

I refer honourable PBers to my previous post. Not because it was any good, but because the link is important

Wolfgang Munchau (very astute on EU matters, and fairly EU-agnostic, by FT standards) nails the future. It will be Norway, and he explains why. I relink, here

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb8dbe8c-3d0c-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz4CsSQ3HZ4

That's very much a City view, though. When he says "A time-limited but speedily agreed Norway option would respect the will of the voters, the political reality in the UK and in the EU, prove economically least costly and it is flexible", he's right on the last two points, arguably right on the second, but completely wrong on the first.

Will it end up with anti-free-movement Leave voters being betrayed? Given the speed of buyers' remorse, which has frankly caught me by surprise, it's not unimaginable, as I thought it would be before the referendum. But there would certainly be one hell of a political cost to it.

Also, I don't think you are right that most Tory Leavers are Hannan-style libertarians. In my experience migration is one their strongest reasons for wanting to leave the EU, essentially because they think the population increase which they attribute to EU membership is unsustainable.

Boris is pro-migration so is Hannan, I don't think Cash especially cares. Etc. For them it's all about sovereignty.

Besides the point is they will HAVE to do this, or face economic meltdown, the destruction of the City, desertion of party donors. Choices are narrowing, by the day.

This is just about the only solution which looks remotely democratic (i.e. we really are LEAVING) while saving the economy

For the people who just voted leave, the primary expression of lack of sovereignty is immigration. They are seriously playing with fire if this is on the table.

We're already playing with fire. The economy might burn down. Our choices are dwindling, as I say

Oh FFS. Are you like this at home too? Let's have Chinese. I've ordered it.
Oh, I think Indian would be nicer. But I've ordered Chinese.
Actually, I fancy a pizza. But the delivery guy will be here in 10 mins. Should I call to cancel my order? Will they hate me now? Now ordered Indian. But what if the delivery guy didn't get the cancellation? How can I not tip him? That pizza did sound tasty...

MaxPB said:

JonathanD said:

ManWithThePlan said:

If we stay in the EEA we can limit migration via safeguard measures under Article 112. This can be done for years.

No we can't.

We could do it unilaterally on a temporary basis, to make that permanent we'd need agreement from the EU and other EEA nations. Switzerland are probably going to get something similar in a few months time.

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.

Disraeli said:

shiney2 said:

murali_s said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

F*cking immigrants - that's what it was all about - scary times ahead.

LABOUR REMAIN believes in 300,000+ immigrants every year for ever.

It is doomed.

Gosh! Almost as many people as the entire population of Iceland!

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

What?

felix said:

PlatoSaid said:

John_M said:

Fishing said:

shiney2 said:

Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

I think Switzerland is better than Norway.

I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).

Quite. I find the notion that the UK needs to copy exactly what Norway does frankly bizarre.

We're the 5th largest economy on the planet. Norway is 16th.

After the events of the past few days that first figure really no longer applies.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

Fishing said:

shiney2 said:

Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

I think Switzerland is better than Norway.

I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).

The problem, as SeanT has pointed out, is that a custom deal takes years, during which there will be enormous uncertainty. As the two year mark ticks closer, those firms - particularly in financial services - who depend on Financial Passporting will have to move operations abroad "just in case".

Which is why I'm spending most of the summer in Paris thanks to you Brexiteers

Alistair said:

Lowlander said:

Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

"She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

Brutal.

That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.

AlastairMeeks said:

This time last year I had a look at UKIP's targets at a general election:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/2020-ukips-choices.html

My thinking has, however, moved on a bit. If I get the time, I will do a post for Mike on where I now think UKIP should focus their efforts.

Lowlander said:

Alistair said:

Lowlander said:

Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

"She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

Brutal.

That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.

I'm still kind of shocked.

Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.

MaxPB said:

Lowlander said:

TGOHF said:

Lowlander said:

This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

Wait wasn't she the PM in waiting ?

Ruth's in an utterly impossible situation and I don't think she even has the full backing of her party.

Willie Rennie just got up to speak. If he manages to score against her, then her future is looking quite bleak and the idea of the Tories as a "strong opposition" is holed below the water line.

Won't the Scottish Tories have a lot of overlap with the 55% and the 38% in Scotland. Those two groups must have a well aligned Venn diagram. I don't think it is terminal, you can't have a country where 38% of people have no representation.

TGOHF said:

So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

Lowlander said:

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.

The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.

Jobabob said:

Lowlander said:

Alistair said:

Lowlander said:

Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

"She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

Brutal.

That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.

I'm still kind of shocked.

Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.

Anyone got a link?

ManWithThePlan said:

If we stay in the EEA we can limit migration via safeguard measures under Article 112. This can be done for years.

felix said:

Lowlander said:

This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

Hmmm - that is the sound of the MPs - SLab included opting for independence. I'm not sure that is wise, but it could actually be good news for the SCons.

notme said:

MaxPB said:

Jobabob said:

SeanT said:

MarkHopkins said:

I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

What?

Sack off the whole thing and just stay in the EU?

And be at the whim of political integration and the ECJ. No thanks. I'll take EEA membership and see what happens after that.

I really cant see much of a downside to the EEA.

Pulpstar said:

Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

TGOHF said:

So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

surbiton said:

taffys said:

What?

One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).

The UK is in a strong position.

Dream on...

Alistair said:

felix said:

Lowlander said:

This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

Hmmm - that is the sound of the MPs - SLab included opting for independence. I'm not sure that is wise, but it could actually be good news for the SCons.

No, both the Lib Dems and Slab were very clear they were not opting for Independence. They were wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending garments at the damage the Conservatives had doen to the Union as they loved the UK so much.

SCons Unionist credentials took an absolute beating.

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/747779678182711296

Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.

If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

Ally_B said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

chestnut said:

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

They were. The only problem is, they still are.

It doesn't look that way; they are now just following party orders.

Alistair said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

I thought he was going to resign?

Pulpstar said:

Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

Luckyguy1983 said:

chestnut said:

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

They were. The only problem is, they still are.

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747797344104648704

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747797344104648704