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  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    @MrTCHarris: BREAKING: Corbyn takes part in PLP's vote of confidence but refuses to say how he voted.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ChrisMasonBBC: The announcement of the next leader of the Conservative Party is being put back to September 9th, reports @carolewalkercw
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Stephen Crabb, the work and pensions secretary, has confirmed that he is standing for the Conservative leadership in an email to Tory MPs, Politico reports.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,505
    RodCrosby said:
    Would Boris even be able to command a majority if he won? Soubry would surely resign the Tory whip and there may be others. He may become leader but never become PM.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814
    MaxPB said:

    We'd be a contracting party to the EEA agreement, so it would be binding in a sense, but really who is going to tell HMG to pay up for a contract dispute judged by a court we no longer recognise if we left. In the same way Parliament is sovereign within the EU because we could leave at any time, it would also be sovereign within the EEA.
    That's exactly what we are going to think and it is exactly the reason why the EEA won't work for us. I am getting mixed signals from other EU countries whether will support an EEA solution for us. I don't think they trust us.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,399
    Scott_P said:

    @Coral: The FA have listed their reasons as to why Roy Hodgson has been a success as #ENG manager:

    1. Won a couple friendlies.
    2.

    2. 10 wins in a row in a weedy qualifying group.
  • Look, I know I'm an illiterate LEAVER, but why on earth would it take 4 years to negotiate a trade deal? What do they chat about? The weather?

    Sunil Prasannan, BSc. (Hons.), ARCS, PhD, DIC*

    (*that's Diploma of Imperial College, NOT Drunk in Charge:lol: )

    Non-tariff barriers. Things like agreeing that South Korea's automotive regulatory authority can type-approve car parts instead of having to submit to the EU (and vice versa). Pharma is another similar area with high barriers to trade, food safety another.

    Also the weather. Everyone talks about the weather.
  • Of course not. No-one even remotely sensible ever thought he would.

    If we go for the EEA option, as buyers'-remorse Leavers are now suggesting, we'll indeed be out of the CAP and CFP, but we won't get much of a reduction in contributions, we won't get any change to freedom of movement, and we won't get an emergency brake in any meaningful sense. On the downside we'll have given up our veto on Treaty changes (such as accession of Turkey), we'll have no say in the rules which affect us, and we'll have lost the institutional protection for the City against Eurozone hegemony.

    Personally I think that's worse than what we had. It's certainly at best only a small incremental improvement if you give a lot of weight to certain items (but not immigration, the main Leave argument) - for which we'll have paid a huge price in economic disruption.
    Not true. Freedom of movement does not exist for non-workers in the EEA, they have an emergency brake under the safeguard measures and we have say in EU laws at the consultation stage and at EEA joint committee. Plus we can sign our own trade deals, scrap 3/4 of EU law and remove the 2-year ejector seat.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Someone get Mathew Elliot a safe Tory seat!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    OllyT said:

    Accusing people of talking down the economy is simply a clumsy attempt to shut down debate and criticism of the downsides of Brexit.

    I know a number of people who voted Leave in the hope it would cause chaos all over the EU - I don't believe for a second that you care how the EU resolves the issue other than hoping it causes upset for others.
    I would go some way further than that. I really think that most people would live with exit provided that there was a next steps plan with a clear destination. That would allow effective corporate and personal planning. It would allow legal and economic risk to be quantified and priced.

    What we've had instead is the two year old smashing the toy and expecting somebody else to sort it out. The risk can't be priced so people retreat to safety. The consequences for the employed, the bill payers, are real. Perhaps it will work out acceptably but we appear to be some way off that point.

    In the meantime the Labour party engages in doctrinaire warfare.

    It will be interesting to see if this is 1848 or 1917. The risk is that even those currently revelling in the chaos lose out. It would be just retribution, I suppose.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,788
    edited June 2016

    Would Boris even be able to command a majority if he won? Soubry would surely resign the Tory whip and there may be others. He may become leader but never become PM.
    Depends what kind of majority he recieved.

    "Crisis" elections can go two ways... Indecisive (Feb 1974 one example) or landslide (1931 good example)

    If he had a 100 seat majority Ms. Soubry and others could do what wanted and it wouldn't make any difference...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,384
    Mr. Bob, short-sighted and foolish from Khan.

    If London gets devolution, Yorkshire and Cornwall will want it. Within a decade England will be riddled with political division that will be entrenched by the political system itself. Demagogues will, sooner or later, rise to power (complaining about London taxes being exported, or spending per head in Yorkshire being too low). Entirely possible England will cease to be a single political entity.

    Hasn't Scottish devolution taught them anything?

    And why should Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland been kept whole with single devolved bodies, whereas England has been neglected in this regard?

    Mr. Lowlander, what currency a country uses is quite important...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lowlander said:


    In 2014, Sterling would be the currency, the only actual unresolved issue is whether Scotland would be involved in BoE policy,
    .
    That's not unresolved - you would not be part of the BoE policy or have any input to the pound.

    You would be "dollarised" - similar to Panama and hence the cost of borrowing would be higher for Scotland - and of course to maintain the high cost "progressive" lifestyle which is currently funded by rUK you would have to borrow a lot.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    If Boris doesn't want a snap election and May does- interesting differential.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Shock: Sky sources say Corbyn has lost...
  • FF43 said:

    That's exactly what we are going to think and it is exactly the reason why the EEA won't work for us. I am getting mixed signals from other EU countries whether will support an EEA solution for us. I don't think they trust us.
    We are already a signatory to the EEA agreement. The EU can not block it. There are a couple of anomalies that we would face but nothing major.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,079
    edited June 2016
    Will be very popular with Londoners. Go Sadiq, go!!!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    nunu said:

    Someone get Mathew Elliot a safe Tory seat!

    This Matthew Elliott?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_as84t4Ji_w
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    Shouldn't "Vote leave/Boris" have perhaps prepared a teeny tiny bit for a WIN ?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Shock: Sky sources say Corbyn has lost...

    Question is whether his support was in double figures, or not. :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,505
    GIN1138 said:

    Depends what kind of majority he recieved.

    "Crisis" elections can go two ways... Indecisive (Feb 1974 one example) or landslide (1931 good example)

    If he had a 100 seat majority Ms. Soubry and others could do what wanted and it wouldn't make any difference...
    I meant after the Tory leadership election. We're assuming that person immediately becomes PM, but there's no guarantee at the moment.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    He was tired and emotional in the last one. From Sam Coates' Twitter feed

    I'm told Boris Johnson has made clear to Tory right he WILL end EU free movement after Telegraph column y'day angered ppl.

    Boris Telegraph y'day column was "written too quickly" and he's tired. Friends agree sloppy & sent mixed messages & will be vetted in future

    So today Boris is in favour of ending the single market, that should steady the financial markets. Heaven help us if he gets anywhere near the negotiations.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: Labour vote. 172 no confidence in @jeremycorbyn 40 have confidence. 216 voted
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    GIN1138 said:
    All those promises to deliver on. Maybe he is drafting the legislation: The Golden Unicorn Act 2016

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: Watson and Eagle going into a meeting...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,314
    MikeK said:

    I have never seen such panic as these latest posts on PB. It's frantic; it's manic, and SeanT, who should know better, is leader of the pack.
    While Mr T is capable of speaking for himself, of course, I am running hours behind, but I thought he was all about emotional reactions to things.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Mr. Bob, short-sighted and foolish from Khan.

    If London gets devolution, Yorkshire and Cornwall will want it. Within a decade England will be riddled with political division that will be entrenched by the political system itself. Demagogues will, sooner or later, rise to power (complaining about London taxes being exported, or spending per head in Yorkshire being too low). Entirely possible England will cease to be a single political entity.

    Hasn't Scottish devolution taught them anything?

    And why should Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland been kept whole with single devolved bodies, whereas England has been neglected in this regard?

    Mr. Lowlander, what currency a country uses is quite important...

    A more federal England would be a wonderful thing. It's too large to be treated as a single unit.
  • The EU Canada deal is still not ratified. Meanwhile the EFTA/Canada deal has been operating since 2009.
    The EU-Canada one does seem to be significantly more wide ranging, covering things of more importance to our economy such as professional qualifications, copyright (so says Wikipedia at least).

    Outside the EU of course we may not need something so complicated, and I'm sure some areas of it we could live without. But we would probably benefit more from one like the EU one than from one like the EFTA one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Labour vote. 172 no confidence in @jeremycorbyn 40 have confidence. 216 voted

    40 !

    Isn't that enough ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,399

    Question is whether his support was in double figures, or not. :lol:
    http://news.sky.com/story/1718507/corbyn-has-lost-no-confidence-vote-sources
  • eekeek Posts: 29,544

    Joris Luyendijk @JLbankingblog
    Hearing stories of graduates being told by City banks: your job offer had Brexit clause. All bets are off .

    Been there done that. A job offer with Deutsche Bank disappeared on September 13th....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,814

    We are already a signatory to the EEA agreement. The EU can not block it. There are a couple of anomalies that we would face but nothing major.
    That's what I originally thought, but without going into the longwinded explanation, the EU will need to sign a new version of the Treaty and it is inconceivable in practice that the UK could join the EEA as an EFTA member against the wishes of the EU.

    The question is whether they do wish. They might do because it's easier for them.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    40 !

    Isn't that enough ?
    I wonder how many will claim to have been one of the 40 in front of their local party selection meetings?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,788
    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Labour vote. 172 no confidence in @jeremycorbyn 40 have confidence. 216 voted

    Stick to your guns Jezza! Don't be intimidated.
  • FF43 said:

    That's what I originally thought, but without going into the longwinded explanation, the EU will need to sign a new version of the Treaty and it is inconceivable in practice that the UK could join the EEA as an EFTA member against the wishes of the EU.

    The question is whether they do wish. They might do because it's easier for them.
    Can you please go into the long winded explanation?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    While Mr T is capable of speaking for himself, of course, I am running hours behind, but I thought he was all about emotional reactions to things.
    Sean's just the poster child for a bunch of people here who, like pinballs, carom off the day's political and economic events. It's hard to tell where the ball is going, what kind of score it'll rack up, and whether it'll end up in the gutter.

    *Gets towed away by the bad analogy police*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,430
    Pulpstar said:

    40 !

    Isn't that enough ?
    To get him on the ballot paper ? Yes
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,384
    Mr. Fire, disagree entirely. Regional assemblies and such nonsense will permanently entrench division. An English Parliament is necessary, but we may end up with the political class carving England up into petty fiefdoms.

    In other news: Corbyn is neither in office nor in power.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095

    I wonder how many will claim to have been one of the 40 in front of their local party selection meetings?
    And then not in front of their voters ?

    Schrodinger's Labour party :)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,896
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Watson and Eagle going into a meeting...

    Having got his Eagle, Tom Watson's now in a bunker.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Not true. Freedom of movement does not exist for non-workers in the EEA, they have an emergency brake under the safeguard measures and we have say in EU laws at the consultation stage and at EEA joint committee. Plus we can sign our own trade deals, scrap 3/4 of EU law and remove the 2-year ejector seat.

    For about the zillionth time, the Freedom of Movement Directive applies in EXACTLY the same way for EEA and EU countries. It's the same effing directive. Not a jot of difference.

    You are right that EEA members, like I believe other organisation, are consulted before regulations are drawn up. Big deal. They still have zero votes on the matter and are not in on the decision-taking meetings.

    Yes, they can sign their own trade deals. Just as well, because they don't benefit from the ones the EU signs. Of course they have less clout when they do negotiate them. I consider that neutral overall.

    Yes, some EU laws don't apply.
  • Amongst all the panic and recriminations here, can someone explain the difference between EEA and EFTA particularily in terms of:

    * Ability to agree bilateral trade deals with non EU states

    * Freedom of movement of people.

    * Annual membership fee.

    * Obligation for domestic sales to have CE marking/follow single market related EU directives.

    * CAP / CF policy.

    Thanks
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,095
    edited June 2016
    Maybe those 172 should leave the Labour party. Surely if they were so confident and able in their own abilities as an MP they could win their seat without needing the Labour rosette ?
    Particularly the ones in places like Sunderland and Stoke......
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    written statement from Corbyn imminent...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,788

    To get him on the ballot paper ? Yes
    OH, LOL! Jezza will just be reselected by Lab members! :smiley:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lolza

    Kay Burley@KayBurley 9m9 minutes ago

    BREAK: President of European council, Tusk, tells Sturgeon he's not interested in meeting her tomorrow
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Labour vote. 172 no confidence in @jeremycorbyn 40 have confidence. 216 voted

    According to my maths, assuming 36 shadow cabinet members, that still allows 91,390 possible permutations. Jezza can keep shuffling his loyalists around a while yet :).
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    Dereliction of duty by Osborne, Hammond and Javid for the lack of planning for non-EU trade given that Brexit has been a 50/50 shot. All 3 should be fired. Javid needs to be skewered in this upcoming election.

    I think we are moving past the point where it really matters which bit of the Tory party is most responsible for the clusterf*ck that this is turning out to be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    RodCrosby said:

    written statement from Corbyn imminent...

    There are no tanks in Baghdad...
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    OllyT said:


    So today Boris is in favour of ending the single market, that should steady the financial markets. Heaven help us if he gets anywhere near the negotiations.
    It's chaos, and that's not an emotional response I'm afraid.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Good plan by Boris to reject early election idea.

    No early threat to jobs will get a good 25-35 wavering Tory MPs in marginals to his side.


  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TGOHF said:

    Lolza

    Kay Burley@KayBurley 9m9 minutes ago

    BREAK: President of European council, Tusk, tells Sturgeon he's not interested in meeting her tomorrow

    Burn.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,788
    Pulpstar said:

    Maybe those 172 should leave the Labour party. Surely if they were so confident and able in their own abilities as an MP they could win their seat without needing the Labour rosette ?
    Particularly the ones in places like Sunderland and Stoke......

    A gang of 172 imminent? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    NEW THREAD
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,663
    RodCrosby said:

    written statement from Corbyn imminent...

    "Fuck you all. I'm staying"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,622
    Pulpstar said:

    40 !

    Isn't that enough ?
    40 front benchers?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: Labour vote. 172 no confidence in @jeremycorbyn 40 have confidence. 216 voted

    Oops, not quite enough, I think, in this Alice-in-Wonderland world. Badly wounded but not dead.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    I wonder how many will claim to have been one of the 40 in front of their local party selection meetings?
    Probably about 150 since the membership support Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,430

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    81% of the Labour MPs who voted have no confidence in Jermey Corbyn.

    Or to put it another way, enough MPs to form new party..!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    The thing that genuinely riles me up is this constant building of strawman arguments. This country has some racists. It also has some people I'll describe as giant cocks. They'll take advantage of a situation in order to be fucking horrible.

    The overwhelming majority of the people in this country will not tolerate this behaviour. If the evidence is there, they should be punished. If it's not a criminal offence, it should still be challenged.

    We can all go out of our way to reassure our local immigrants that we are fundamentally decent people.
    I do enjoy being called a racist bigot by small minded Remainders. It says much more about them than me.

    I'm a female bisexual brought up above a shop in the NE by WWC parents and my Sierra Leone uncle. In the 70s. Oh, and had a few cross-dressing boyfriends.

    On the Check Your Privilege scale - I think I score quite highly. And I voted Leave. OMG!!!

    I detest identity politics - but if they want to play that game - bring it on :lol:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    John_M said:

    Burn.
    Poor Nicola. No-one likes to see anyone being stood up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,059

    Amongst all the panic and recriminations here, can someone explain the difference between EEA and EFTA particularily in terms of:

    * Ability to agree bilateral trade deals with non EU states

    * Freedom of movement of people.

    * Annual membership fee.

    * Obligation for domestic sales to have CE marking/follow single market related EU directives.

    * CAP / CF policy.

    Thanks

    You can be a member of EFTA and not the EEA (like Switzerland), but most people use EFTA/EEA to mean membership of the EEA through EFTA.

    * Ability to agree bilateral trade deals with non EU states
    - yes

    * Freedom of movement of people.
    - yes, albeit with more freedom for a state to impose emergency restrictions, and some more flexibiity re benefits and the like.

    * Annual membership fee.
    EFTA/EEA *probably* costs slightly more than straight EFTA. (Hard to know exactly because the Swiss hide part of their fee by allowing the EU to collect customs duties on their behalf.)

    The exact bill is up for negotiation, but would be in the range of £2bn at the low-end to £5bn at the high end. (The high estimate includes a bunch of projects that are not compulsory.)

    * Obligation for domestic sales to have CE marking/follow single market related EU directives.
    Neither has that.

    * CAP / CF policy.
    CAP is easy-peasy, we'd be out.
    CFP is a bit more complicated because the most sensible long-term solution is to recreate the 'box' with Ireland. We'd definitely leave it, but there's probably a long-term negotiation there needed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    OllyT said:


    So today Boris is in favour of ending the single market, that should steady the financial markets. Heaven help us if he gets anywhere near the negotiations.
    Is there ANYONE on this board who thinks Boris would make a good PM?

    Don't all rush at once.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Most politicains would be happy to serve in Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet despite having no confidence in the leader.

    The confidence vote has no consequences.

    Shows a lack of tactical nous by the Blairites.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    Is there ANYONE on this board who thinks Boris would make a good PM?

    Don't all rush at once.
    Plato....she thinks the suns shines out of his arse

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Joris Luyendijk @JLbankingblog
    Hearing stories of graduates being told by City banks: your job offer had Brexit clause. All bets are off .

    Me: Hearing stories of Indians and Australians being offered jobs since Brexit was announced - rejoice!!
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Watson and Eagle going into a meeting...


    Arm wrestling to be the challenger. Eagle to win. :)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Is there ANYONE on this board who thinks Boris would make a good PM?

    Don't all rush at once.
    Boris Johnson has leadership qualities.

    Bold, confident, clever, charismatic, a winner, a team leader and demonstartaed these qualities as London Mayor and leader of the LEAVE campaign.

    Note how he consulted with Leadsom and Stuart as they were participating in the live debate. The opponents didn't show any team working.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    81% of the Labour MPs who voted have no confidence in Jermey Corbyn.

    Or to put it another way, enough MPs to form new party..!


    But not enough members.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    Is there ANYONE on this board who thinks Boris would make a good PM?

    Don't all rush at once.
    That depends on your definition of good. It also depends on his ability to delegate and get people pulling in the same direction. I suspect he might surprise a few should he get the gig.

    I still expect to vote for May in the leadership contest but if it's Boris v Fox then I'd go with Boris.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Police have cleared and closed part of the Commons Library and Terrace after finding a suspicious package on Westminster Bridge.

    Did it look like a football manager?

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046


    But not enough members.
    Even better many of them would say !!
This discussion has been closed.