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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn say Jez will carry on if the confidence motion goes against him but it will surely be the start of the end

Labour MPs at Westminster are currently voting on the no confidence motion that was tabled last night. Voting finishes at 4pm and it’s expected that the result will be announced by 5pm.

Read the full story here

eek

First as will may

Sunil_Prasannan

Boris has already won two Mayoral elections in heavily Labour-leaning London (2008, 2012), and has just won a national Referendum.

What's not to like?

rottenborough

He's finished.

eek

Back on topic - I think the issue is how many candidates stand for election. If the PLP are clever they will ensure that only 1 person appears on the list.

Yes its not that democratic but pick one of Watson, Eagle or Jarvis and get everyone to stand behind them....

not_on_fire

Hilarious "money makeover" article for Cameron http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/im-losing-my-140k-job-and-7k-a-month-in-rent---a-new-money-makeo/

"Mr Collins said that the lender, HSBC, might well have used Mr Cameron's salary as an MP, of around £75,000, rather than his salary as Prime Minister, worth almost double that, to calculate how much he could borrow.

It might have considered the security of his Prime Ministerial role in doubt, and he would have had to declare anything that might mean he loses his income - such as an impending constitutional crisis"

[Deleted User]

Corbyn and the membership own Labour. I think he'll stick it out as long as he can and will win a new leadership election. The hard left is not going to let go. This is their one and only chance to own Labour for good. But...what that means is that the MPs and remaning voters will walk. SDP2 within a month. Labour will become as relevant as the SWP. Yippee!

SandyRentool

I maintain what I said a few days ago - Jezza will get an assurance that someone in his mould will make it onto the ballot (Clive Lewis?), then he'll stand down.

Then it is up to us lot.

rottenborough

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago
Spoke to 7 Labour MPs this morning. Asked them who preferred leadership candidate was. All 7 - every single one of them - said Tom Watson.

anotherDave

Video of Mr Farage in the EU Parliament.

https://twitter.com/euronews/status/747723811420782592

Alistair

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

rottenborough

Watson likely to unity candidate to get them thru Oct election? Still available at 4 on BF

Tissue_Price

But what can the rebels give Corbyn to make him stand down? It's already way past appealing to a sense of honour.

Sunil_Prasannan

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

YellowSubmarine

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

not_on_fire

eek said:

Back on topic - I think the issue is how many candidates stand for election. If the PLP are clever they will ensure that only 1 person appears on the list.

Yes its not that democratic but pick one of Watson, Eagle or Jarvis and get everyone to stand behind them....

I'd agree if the vote was FPTP, but surely the AV system means it doesn't matter how many candidates there are?

Jonathan

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

Who CAN be leader of Labour after Corbyn?

RodCrosby

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

SandyRentool

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

YellowSubmarine

Jonathan said:

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

Who CAN be leader of Labour after Corbyn?

Yes. I suppose that's what I'm driving at. The fact that Watson is seen as progress shows the Radioactive slagheap Britain's Left has been reduced to. Watson is the Cockroach candidate after a Nuclear War.

[Deleted User]

Jonathan said:

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

Who CAN be leader of Labour after Corbyn?

Corbyn.

Watson would be a good candidate for leader of SDP2 however.

matt

not_on_fire said:

Hilarious "money makeover" article for Cameron http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/money-makeover/im-losing-my-140k-job-and-7k-a-month-in-rent---a-new-money-makeo/

"Mr Collins said that the lender, HSBC, might well have used Mr Cameron's salary as an MP, of around £75,000, rather than his salary as Prime Minister, worth almost double that, to calculate how much he could borrow.

It might have considered the security of his Prime Ministerial role in doubt, and he would have had to declare anything that might mean he loses his income - such as an impending constitutional crisis"

My that's hilarious. The DailyTeleMail is the home of great journalism.

Essexit

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

Sunil_Prasannan

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

Gisela?

Brexiteer - check!
Woman - check!
Immigrant - check!

eek

not_on_fire said:

eek said:

Back on topic - I think the issue is how many candidates stand for election. If the PLP are clever they will ensure that only 1 person appears on the list.

Yes its not that democratic but pick one of Watson, Eagle or Jarvis and get everyone to stand behind them....

I'd agree if the vote was FPTP, but surely the AV system means it doesn't matter how many candidates there are?

Why risk it. A single candidate means that its a binary choice for Corbyn (walk away or risk looking a fool and standing) and then if he does stand a binary choice for voters (Corbyn and 2 parties or a single party with Corbyn complaining from the back)..

The ideal solution for labour is a coronation with Corbyn walking away. That gives them 3 months lead to prepare for October and allow them to identify their lost WWC vote before UKIP takes them...

Sunil_Prasannan

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

Great minds think alike

TOPPING

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

FrancisUrquhart

World number one Jason Day has withdrawn from the Rio Olympics because of "concerns about the possible transmission of the Zika virus".

At this rate, Jezza shadow cabinet is going to be stacked with more talent than the golf at the Olympics.

Richard_Nabavi

I think the idea of Corbyn and McDonnell filling all the Shad Cab roles is brilliant. Indeed it would make a nice change to see Labour acting against over-manning and jobs for the girls, and instead embracing Thatcherite efficiency.

SouthamObserver

What we are witnessing is the death of the Labour party as a potential party of government. The Labour membership would prefer that to allowing a "Blairite" (ie, anyone who is not Jeremy Corbyn) to be leader. The comfort blanket is too warm, the membership - largely well-off and unaffected personally by Tory policy - too detached from real life. Labour will develop into a full-blown socialist party and will gradually wither away into complete irrelevance. A new centre-left party will take its place. All that, though, will take time.

Unfortunately, what it means is that a right wing Tory government that needs just 37% of the vote to stay in power will negotiate the terms of Brexit largely unscrutinised and unopposed. And that will result in a deal which will hurt ordinary voters and alienate them even further from the political process.

That's how decent Jeremy Corbyn is.

welshowl

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

We're through the looking glass aren't we......

Barnesian

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

That's elementary.

YellowSubmarine

Well if it is Watson I hope his vile role during Paedogeddon is dredged up. He deliberately went down the witch trial route and undermined the presumption of innocence and parliamentary privelige. Both ancient bulwarks against tyranny. Yuk.

FrancisUrquhart

Jezza's shadow cabinet...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVFcIJWe0zE

Richard_Nabavi

YellowSubmarine said:

Well if it is Watson I hope his vile role during Paedodogeddon is dredged up. He deliberately went down the witch trial route and undermined the presumption of innocence and parliamentary privelige. Both ancient bulwarks against tyranny. Yuk.

Yes, he is a disgrace.

John_M

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

They could have a sock puppet on each hand. That's four slots filled right there.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

PlatoSaid

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Boris has already won two Mayoral elections in heavily Labour-leaning London (2008, 2012), and has just won a national Referendum.

What's not to like?

This for me is a real pull factor. He's got that je ne sais quoi. I don't understand it - but it's appealing, he makes me feel better and optimistic.

That he won in London twice isn't something to sniff at.

tpfkar

not_on_fire said:

eek said:

Back on topic - I think the issue is how many candidates stand for election. If the PLP are clever they will ensure that only 1 person appears on the list.

Yes its not that democratic but pick one of Watson, Eagle or Jarvis and get everyone to stand behind them....

I'd agree if the vote was FPTP, but surely the AV system means it doesn't matter how many candidates there are?

It's essential that there is one anti-Corbyn candidate. Last year Burnham, Cooper and Kendall spent so much time aiming at each other they couldn't get any effective attacks on Corbyn in, who strolled past them all. We think about voting systems too much on here!
There can't be any division, for Corbyn or against. Although I have no insight, I'd have thought that Tom Watson would be the obvious candidate, with a pledge to support Angela Eagle for deputy.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

Angela pretty clear on privileges and responsibilities.

John_M

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

I have now officially lost hope that Labour will do anything even remotely sensible. Its jumped the shark. Nothing would surprise me about the identity of the next leader. Bobby Ewing, Sooty, Priscilla: Queen of the Desert, The Edstone itself, a small bag of gobstoppers. They're all in play.

TheKrakenAwakes

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

MaxPB

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Yes, that's probably the right strategy, but they'll be facing a Tory government that will be implementing Brexit (with some minor concessions on immigration) and a Labour party who want to take us back in. I'd suggest that the 40 Labour seats are much more vulnerable.

Essexit

John_M said:

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

I have now officially lost hope that Labour will do anything even remotely sensible. Its jumped the shark. Nothing would surprise me about the identity of the next leader. Bobby Ewing, Sooty, Priscilla: Queen of the Desert, The Edstone itself, a small bag of gobstoppers. They're all in play.

Don't forget El Gato!

FrancisUrquhart

John_M said:

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

I have now officially lost hope that Labour will do anything even remotely sensible. Its jumped the shark. Nothing would surprise me about the identity of the next leader. Bobby Ewing, Sooty, Priscilla: Queen of the Desert, The Edstone itself, a small bag of gobstoppers. They're all in play.

I hear Elvis is available at very reasonable rates...

John_M

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

While I don't disagree with your overall premise (£108 billion pension bill this year), don't forget that boomers' pensions aren't state pensions, by and large.

I'm a higher rate taxpayer based on my private pension and investment income. By all means despise the rentier class, but let's keep a sense of perspective.

Jobabob

John_M said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

They could have a sock puppet on each hand. That's four slots filled right there.

Am I reading this right? Are they seriously suggesting that they are going to have multiple shadow roles, beyond Loto and Scote? This is utterly farcical and they are humiliating themselves, their office and bringing shame on their party and country.

PlatoSaid

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

I've no genuinely no idea. He's a backroom bruiser. He looks like a thug. MPs are getting more than desperate if they're backing someone so unappealing.

I'm sticking with Eagles.

Jonathan

YellowSubmarine said:

Jonathan said:

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

Who CAN be leader of Labour after Corbyn?

Yes. I suppose that's what I'm driving at. The fact that Watson is seen as progress shows the Radioactive slagheap Britain's Left has been reduced to. Watson is the Cockroach candidate after a Nuclear War.

How dare you, he is not Tim Farron!

GIN1138

Jezza needs to stick to his guns!

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

Angela pretty clear on privileges and responsibilities.

Yes and when German union leaders, company directors, employees and managers all speak with one voice, to ensure the UK stays in the single market at any cost, who will she listen to? Them or Junker who has just overseen the first ever member to leave the EU? He is as responsible for the failure to keep us in by denying what was a very basic set of demands, he could and should have told the French to go and fuck themselves.

wasd

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

They could always split - one could then become the Popular Peoples Front and the other can become the Peoples Popular Front.

TCPoliticalBetting

Richard_Nabavi said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Well if it is Watson I hope his vile role during Paedodogeddon is dredged up. He deliberately went down the witch trial route and undermined the presumption of innocence and parliamentary privelige. Both ancient bulwarks against tyranny. Yuk.

Yes, he is a disgrace.

Yes the thug/slug in a suit vs wolfie smith in his dotage. With all those questions about Labour's policy on immigration to air for the voters. To the victor the spoils of a 20% party?

murali_s

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Yes, that's probably the right strategy, but they'll be facing a Tory government that will be implementing Brexit (with some minor concessions on immigration) and a Labour party who want to take us back in. I'd suggest that the 40 Labour seats are much more vulnerable.

Agreed and with the rise of xenophobia and bigotry (assisted by the Leave campaign) in this country, UKIP have a very bright future.

logical_song

He's a little bit stubborn, isn't he.

PlatoSaid

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

That's the whole Varoufakis game theory play - come up with an outrageous, but horribly believable plan and see who blinks first.

How entertaining!

RodCrosby

Majority of new Labour members back deselections...
http://labourlist.org/2016/06/new-members-back-deselection-for-mps-who-rebel-against-corbyn-new-study-shows/

Richard_Tyndall

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

Gisela?

Brexiteer - check!
Woman - check!
Immigrant - check!

I thought the whole point of this rebellion against Corbyn was because he didn't support Remain as much as they wanted him to. Why would they then choose an out and out Outer to replace him?

PlatoSaid

YellowSubmarine said:

Jonathan said:

YellowSubmarine said:

If the answer is Watson what is the question ?

Who CAN be leader of Labour after Corbyn?

Yes. I suppose that's what I'm driving at. The fact that Watson is seen as progress shows the Radioactive slagheap Britain's Left has been reduced to. Watson is the Cockroach candidate after a Nuclear War.

felix

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

Did you notice how big business in the UK just lost the referendum? Politics [of a kind] trumped the economy. In Europe it will be the same.

Pulpstar

I've got a betslip on Jezza to stay till 2017, although I think it is a loser now I must admit I've never seen any leader try so hard to win a "leader to stay" bet.

murali_s

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

F*cking immigrants - that's what it was all about - scary times ahead.

SimonStClare

Afternoon all.

Unless the result of the No Confidence vote has a material effects Labour’s rule book, then Corbyn will cling on till a new leadership election is called.

We’ll know this evening, one way or another.

MaxPB

murali_s said:

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Yes, that's probably the right strategy, but they'll be facing a Tory government that will be implementing Brexit (with some minor concessions on immigration) and a Labour party who want to take us back in. I'd suggest that the 40 Labour seats are much more vulnerable.

Agreed and with the rise of xenophobia and bigotry (assisted by the Leave campaign) in this country, UKIP have a very bright future.

I for one look forward to the decapitation of the Labour party. Unpopular leader in London because of Brexit and unpopular in their heartlands because the party was officially in favour or Remain. It's a real pincer movement, so far only @SouthamObserver and @Jonathan are seeing it among the Labour posters on here.

SouthamObserver

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

You are assuming that:
a) Leaving the EU will be as popular at the time of the GE as it was last Thursday.
b) All those who voted Leave will vote in a general election
c) All those who voted Leave in a binary referendum would be as binary in a general election
d) a competent Labour leader would not be able to frame the argument in Labour constituencies as a vote about the Tories
e) Labour leave voters would be happy to vote for an economically and fiscally right wing party

These may be all fair assumptions. But I am not sure that they are close to being certainties.

The only certainty is that with Corbyn as leader Labour will be destroyed.

GIN1138

I hear Jeremy Hunt is hinting that he might try and take on the electorate like he did the Junior Doctors... Presumably the results would be similar with Hunt humiliated in the end?

Brom

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

Gisela?

Brexiteer - check!
Woman - check!
Immigrant - check!

I thought the whole point of this rebellion against Corbyn was because he didn't support Remain as much as they wanted him to. Why would they then choose an out and out Outer to replace him?

Gisela would probably be the best for stopping the UKIP surge. I struggle to see who Labour can pick that would actually see them increase their seat count. Given the short space of time between choosing a leader and the supposed general election they might be better off picking someone with the right background and instant appeal (Dan Jarvis if he wants it), even if his lack of ability gets exposed further down the line.

felix

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

Indeed - on my Teacher pension alone I earn above the national UK average and way above that for where I live here in Spain. Pensioners have done really well in the UK for a long time.

PlatoSaid

John_M said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

They could have a sock puppet on each hand. That's four slots filled right there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxoYKt65vSQ

Richard_Nabavi

Look at the Twitter update in Mike's article. That's the nuclear option.

eek

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Yes, that's probably the right strategy, but they'll be facing a Tory government that will be implementing Brexit (with some minor concessions on immigration) and a Labour party who want to take us back in. I'd suggest that the 40 Labour seats are much more vulnerable.

It won't be 40 Labour seats more likely the top 120.... - basically pick any Labour seat where they won by a majority, leave were above 55%, and turnout at the last election was less than 60% and that seat is UKIP's.

As for the rest, if the Tories were in second place, UKIP will still take enough of the vote that the Tories to come through the middle...

MaxPB

felix said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

Did you notice how big business in the UK just lost the referendum? Politics [of a kind] trumped the economy. In Europe it will be the same.

Because that was up to the people, this is up to politicians, additionally the people who rely on our €360bn annual imports are going to be speaking with one voice.

not_on_fire

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

Indeed - high time the State Pension was frozen for a few years and the triple lock abandoned. After last week it's completely unsustainable.

DavidL

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

I am sure that Diane Abbot could fill 2 or even 3 seats at a push.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Yes, that's probably the right strategy, but they'll be facing a Tory government that will be implementing Brexit (with some minor concessions on immigration) and a Labour party who want to take us back in. I'd suggest that the 40 Labour seats are much more vulnerable.

Posh, upper middle-class Tories are not concerned about immigration much like metropolitan Labour. Lower middle class Tories in the likes of Essex, the Kent coast and Medway towns and Lincolnshire are as concerned about it as the Labour white working class. If May becomes PM and takes us into EFTA as she probably will she will win the next election but UKIP will pick up Tory seats as well as Labour

edmundintokyo

Jobabob said:

John_M said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

They could have a sock puppet on each hand. That's four slots filled right there.

Am I reading this right? Are they seriously suggesting that they are going to have multiple shadow roles, beyond Loto and Scote? This is utterly farcical and they are humiliating themselves, their office and bringing shame on their party and country.

On the other hand if they got supporters to send in their old Sooty's and Sweeps for ministerial questions that would be awesome.

SquareRoot

tom Watson .. leader... ffs

Jobabob

Not sure Watson plans to stay. The party has one goal at this time – removing Corbyn. They'll sort the rest out afterwards (if indeed they can remove him).

PlatoSaid

Essexit said:

John_M said:

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

I have now officially lost hope that Labour will do anything even remotely sensible. Its jumped the shark. Nothing would surprise me about the identity of the next leader. Bobby Ewing, Sooty, Priscilla: Queen of the Desert, The Edstone itself, a small bag of gobstoppers. They're all in play.

Don't forget El Gato!

He'd get my vote

SimonStClare

Richard_Nabavi said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Well if it is Watson I hope his vile role during Paedodogeddon is dredged up. He deliberately went down the witch trial route and undermined the presumption of innocence and parliamentary privelige. Both ancient bulwarks against tyranny. Yuk.

Yes, he is a disgrace.

shiney2

murali_s said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

F*cking immigrants - that's what it was all about - scary times ahead.

LABOUR REMAIN believes in 300,000+ immigrants every year for ever.

It is doomed.

Richard_Tyndall

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

Blame the way Labour set up the system.

People think that they are paying in to the system to support their own retirement. They are not. It was never designed that way. They are paying in to support those who are retired now in the hope that there wil still be someone to pay in when they are wanting to take out.

I agree with you entirely that it is unsustainable and someone needs to bite the bullet. Unfortunately I suspect it will be around my retirement age that it will all fall apart.

C'est la vie. Those are the breaks.

SquareRoot

GIN1138 said:

I hear Jeremy Hunt is hinting that he might try and take on the electorate like he did the Junior Doctors... Presumably the results would be similar with Hunt humiliated in the end?

only he wasn't and the Junior doctors dispute WAS about money after all, despite their denials.

SouthamObserver

not_on_fire said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

Indeed - high time the State Pension was frozen for a few years and the triple lock abandoned. After last week it's completely unsustainable.

The Tories need the support of 37% of the electorate to stay in power. They will not risk alienating their client vote, especially at a time of economic uncertainty.

chestnut

Boris enthuses but lacks gravitas. Not a PM.

GIN1138

Richard_Nabavi said:

Look at the Twitter update in Mike's article. That's the nuclear option.

Can they do that? What if Jezza takes his seat next to Watson and when Speaker B calls LOTO they both stand up and start speaking?

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

Essexit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Not that it will happen, but Labour making a Leaver leader would be an incredibly smart move for holding onto support in Northern heartlands and winning some back from Ukip. Gisela Stuart would be the standout choice were this to happen, which it won't.

You are assuming that:
a) Leaving the EU will be as popular at the time of the GE as it was last Thursday.
b) All those who voted Leave will vote in a general election
c) All those who voted Leave in a binary referendum would be as binary in a general election
d) a competent Labour leader would not be able to frame the argument in Labour constituencies as a vote about the Tories
e) Labour leave voters would be happy to vote for an economically and fiscally right wing party

These may be all fair assumptions. But I am not sure that they are close to being certainties.

The only certainty is that with Corbyn as leader Labour will be destroyed.

The danger is that UKIP become a socially conservative, left wing economic party in favour of higher taxes and higher spending. I don't know how Labour would react to that.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Look at the Twitter update in Mike's article. That's the nuclear option.

Could be a tricky one for the Speaker. Who does he call?

felix

Brom said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

Gisela?

Brexiteer - check!
Woman - check!
Immigrant - check!

I thought the whole point of this rebellion against Corbyn was because he didn't support Remain as much as they wanted him to. Why would they then choose an out and out Outer to replace him?

Gisela would probably be the best for stopping the UKIP surge. I struggle to see who Labour can pick that would actually see them increase their seat count. Given the short space of time between choosing a leader and the supposed general election they might be better off picking someone with the right background and instant appeal (Dan Jarvis if he wants it), even if his lack of ability gets exposed further down the line.

Labour members would never vote for her. That is a bigger disconnect that the one which also clearly exists between MPs and voters, 62% of whom voted remain. Indeed to listen to some on here last week's vote for Leave was rather grander than 52/48. Of course the result has to be accepted but let's not pretend the country is united.

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/747766661021900800

I am sure that Diane Abbot could fill 2 or even 3 seats at a push.

It's just struck me that the relationship between Jeremy and Diane may well not be entirely professional at this moment.

RodCrosby

Richard_Nabavi said:

Look at the Twitter update in Mike's article. That's the nuclear option.

Or ask Bercow to invoke the Lunacy Act...

anotherDave

not_on_fire said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

The latest pensioner incomes data from the ONS shows that average pensioner incomes have grown closer to those of workers.

In 1994/95 pensioner incomes were 38% lower than average workers' incomes, but by 2014/15 the gap had narrowed to just 7%.

There's a time bomb ticking in society - for how long can the working age people of today carry on bearing the burden of financing the elderly?

Indeed - high time the State Pension was frozen for a few years and the triple lock abandoned. After last week it's completely unsustainable.

The triple lock was always a terrible policy.

Sunil_Prasannan

murali_s said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

F*cking immigrants - that's what it was all about - scary times ahead.

No, it wasn't, at least for me!

logical_song

Alistair said:

UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
42 Labour and 49 Con
As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

Could you narrow that down to say 10 or 15% behind first place. I suspect the list would be rather short.
UKIP were second in my constituency, but they were 41% behind.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

What we are witnessing is the death of the Labour party as a potential party of government. The Labour membership would prefer that to allowing a "Blairite" (ie, anyone who is not Jeremy Corbyn) to be leader. The comfort blanket is too warm, the membership - largely well-off and unaffected personally by Tory policy - too detached from real life. Labour will develop into a full-blown socialist party and will gradually wither away into complete irrelevance. A new centre-left party will take its place. All that, though, will take time.

Unfortunately, what it means is that a right wing Tory government that needs just 37% of the vote to stay in power will negotiate the terms of Brexit largely unscrutinised and unopposed. And that will result in a deal which will hurt ordinary voters and alienate them even further from the political process.

That's how decent Jeremy Corbyn is.

This is the deal the Tories will negotiate, under May (or maybe even Boris).

The Norway option, with Free movement and a promise of another vote in ten years.

There aren't enough die-hard anti-migrationists in the Tory party to stop it. Most Tory LEAVERS are in the Hannan camp: Sovereigntists. They will be content with this, the City will be content with this. Labour and UKIP wwc voters will not be content, but the Tories won't care

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb8dbe8c-3d0c-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz4CsSQ3HZ4

Exactly. Keep pensioners and home owners on board, and Bob's your uncle.

volcanopete

R4 Wato stating Dan Jarvis has ruled himself out which leaves Eagle and Watson to fight it out for contender against Corbyn.Eagle is still the value bet but the price keeps contracting.25s will do me.

Sunil_Prasannan

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

Rentool/BJO dream ticket?

Gisela?

Brexiteer - check!
Woman - check!
Immigrant - check!

I thought the whole point of this rebellion against Corbyn was because he didn't support Remain as much as they wanted him to. Why would they then choose an out and out Outer to replace him?

Richard, that shows how much these Labour MPs are out of touch with their electorate.

Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE,

FrancisUrquhart

volcanopete said:

R4 Wato stating Dan Jarvis has ruled himself out which leaves Eagle and Watson to fight it out for contender against Corbyn.Eagle is still the value bet but the price keeps contracting.25s will do me.

I can hear the sigh of SouthamObserver from here.

felix

MaxPB said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Some German bloke on the radio (politician or somesuch democratic rubbish) saying that German car manufacturers won't be negotiating our exit for the EU.

Has Chris Grayling been told?

In the same way the City won't be negotiating ours? Come on, national industries are going o be key players. You think the German auto unions will let Merkel play silly buggers while their members are being put out of work if we move to WTO rules. It sounds like Weber, who is about as federalist as they come. He certainly won't be involved.

Did you notice how big business in the UK just lost the referendum? Politics [of a kind] trumped the economy. In Europe it will be the same.

Because that was up to the people, this is up to politicians, additionally the people who rely on our €360bn annual imports are going to be speaking with one voice.

And yet bizarrely that is not what is happening so far. You are underestimating the commitment of those politicians to the EU.

TheWhiteRabbit

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

What we are witnessing is the death of the Labour party as a potential party of government. The Labour membership would prefer that to allowing a "Blairite" (ie, anyone who is not Jeremy Corbyn) to be leader. The comfort blanket is too warm, the membership - largely well-off and unaffected personally by Tory policy - too detached from real life. Labour will develop into a full-blown socialist party and will gradually wither away into complete irrelevance. A new centre-left party will take its place. All that, though, will take time.

Unfortunately, what it means is that a right wing Tory government that needs just 37% of the vote to stay in power will negotiate the terms of Brexit largely unscrutinised and unopposed. And that will result in a deal which will hurt ordinary voters and alienate them even further from the political process.

That's how decent Jeremy Corbyn is.

This is the deal the Tories will negotiate, under May (or maybe even Boris).

The Norway option, with Free movement and a promise of another vote in ten years.

There aren't enough die-hard anti-migrationists in the Tory party to stop it. Most Tory LEAVERS are in the Hannan camp: Sovereigntists. They will be content with this, the City will be content with this. Labour and UKIP wwc voters will not be content, but the Tories won't care

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb8dbe8c-3d0c-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz4CsSQ3HZ4

Exactly. Keep pensioners and home owners on board, and Bob's your uncle.

Not sure about "Most Tory LEAVERS are in the Hannan camp" but enough leavers, yes.

shiney2

SimonStClare said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Well if it is Watson I hope his vile role during Paedodogeddon is dredged up. He deliberately went down the witch trial route and undermined the presumption of innocence and parliamentary privelige. Both ancient bulwarks against tyranny. Yuk.

Yes, he is a disgrace.

deleted