The other advantage of the EEA is that we can sign free trade agreements with everyone under the Sun, making us less dependent on the EU as they shrink to 5% of the world economy. We can then negotiate an exit of the EEA, if we want, without any two year ejector seat.
Plus we have safeguard measures limiting migration.
This genuinely excites me. If only we had the Royal Yacht, send the Princes on trade negotiations. Visit every country in the UN, with a team of negotiators, do the charming and let the world know we want to buy their stuff, and we want to do it without tariffs. I understand the royals were very good at fronting trade contracts in the middle east, though of course our membership of the EU hindered us from entering into agreements.
My. Tyndall, indeed. It's concerning. Had a delivery from a Polish-sounding chap the other day, very civil, couldn't help but wonder if he'd had any abuse to deal with from other customers.
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".
They were. The only problem is, they still are.
With Osborne still in place threatening cuts and more taxes to depress the economy. Surely Boris/Theresa etc will recognise that he has to go and go quickly? Maybe Gove etc calls a cabinet meeting and demands silence on future actions, excluding nominated candidates?
That was probably a sop to the ratings agencies to take us off negative watch.
My. Tyndall, indeed. It's concerning. Had a delivery from a Polish-sounding chap the other day, very civil, couldn't help but wonder if he'd had any abuse to deal with from other customers.
It is outrageous and these racists should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. It also needs to be made abundantly clear that anybody who is here now is completely welcome, and that we intend to welcome many more immigrants in the future.
A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.
Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.
The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.
But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.
Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
Saying it happens every week is not really an answer. It is clear from the police reports that these types of attacks have increased substantially since last Thursday and it really doesn't help anyone to try and deny that. Better to confront it and make sure it is both condemned and dealt with.
I would suggest lets wait and see. There was an example this morning of a report of a xenophobic attack, which turned out to be two Poles fighting each other.
This period follows the same after a terrorist attack. There is always media reports of a massive increase in reports of anti-Muslim / racist behaviour, and the media report every single incident, but when investigation are held, criminals punished etc, you normally find it doesn't match the media focus on it and a month down the line a knuckle dragger will again throw rocks at a Mosque but the media will be obsessed with something else.
So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?
I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.
We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).
Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.
And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
I don't understand the scottish obsession with EU membership.
If you want to be a self-governing nation, go for it. Don't just go from being a subset of the UK to a subset of the EU.
Ultimately, it's up to the Scots. I don't understand it, and I worked there as late as 2012. However, if that's what the majority want, then fair enough.
Its less an obsession for EU membership, more a disgust at the way England is dragging the rest of the UK into a recession and making us a world wide laughing stock.
"Dutch PM Rutte gives delay on Art 50 triggering, because: "England has collapsed politically, monetarily, constitutionally and economically""
We should really not spend so much time worrying about what tiny little countries say about us. The Netherlands has its own problems. They're also meant to be a friend, a partner and an ally.
Rutte is just fending off his own Nige. He needs us to do badly from Brexit so that people will be scared into voting for him andnnot Wilders. If we come out in a few months with a new leader and the basis of a deal with keeps us in the single market then Wilders will clean up there.
Almost anyone would be better than Corbyn. But neither Watson nor Eagle impress me much. A bit dispiriting if it's not someone a bit better than them.
Cooper did well in the latter stages of the last leadership election and at least has some ministerial experience. Either Umunna or Starmer would bring a bit of star quality.
At the end of the day as long as Corbyn is ousted it's progress. But I fear he's going to hang on until he's wrenched from power.
Agree with this post, but step one has to be the removal of Corbyn. Eagle may be looking at a caretaker role.
I refer honourable PBers to my previous post. Not because it was any good, but because the link is important
Wolfgang Munchau (very astute on EU matters, and fairly EU-agnostic, by FT standards) nails the future. It will be Norway, and he explains why. I relink, here
That's very much a City view, though. When he says "A time-limited but speedily agreed Norway option would respect the will of the voters, the political reality in the UK and in the EU, prove economically least costly and it is flexible", he's right on the last two points, arguably right on the second, but completely wrong on the first.
Will it end up with anti-free-movement Leave voters being betrayed? Given the speed of buyers' remorse, which has frankly caught me by surprise, it's not unimaginable, as I thought it would be before the referendum. But there would certainly be one hell of a political cost to it.
Also, I don't think you are right that most Tory Leavers are Hannan-style libertarians. In my experience migration is one their strongest reasons for wanting to leave the EU, essentially because they think the population increase which they attribute to EU membership is unsustainable.
Boris is pro-migration so is Hannan, I don't think Cash especially cares. Etc. For them it's all about sovereignty.
Besides the point is they will HAVE to do this, or face economic meltdown, the destruction of the City, desertion of party donors. Choices are narrowing, by the day.
This is just about the only solution which looks remotely democratic (i.e. we really are LEAVING) while saving the economy
For the people who just voted leave, the primary expression of lack of sovereignty is immigration. They are seriously playing with fire if this is on the table.
We're already playing with fire. The economy might burn down. Our choices are dwindling, as I say
Oh FFS. Are you like this at home too? Let's have Chinese. I've ordered it. Oh, I think Indian would be nicer. But I've ordered Chinese. Actually, I fancy a pizza. But the delivery guy will be here in 10 mins. Should I call to cancel my order? Will they hate me now? Now ordered Indian. But what if the delivery guy didn't get the cancellation? How can I not tip him? That pizza did sound tasty...
@BethRigby: So, gossip in HoC -- @BorisJohnson got about 100 backers & Theresa May on abt 80. Crabb/Javid 20+. @LiamFoxMP, Hunt, Morgan thinking abt it
Mr. D, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland chaining England to the EU would be fine?
It was a democratic vote.
No chaining going on, just don't be surprised when the UK breaks apart as a result.
And given how many English folk voted Leave because they wanted to make 'Britain Great again' that would be a shame.
We'll have to see what happens if the position does become EEA. I don't see why Scotland or NI would leave the Union if we stayed in the single market and kept mostly free movement.
Mr. D, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland chaining England to the EU would be fine?
It was a democratic vote.
No chaining going on, just don't be surprised when the UK breaks apart as a result.
And given how many English folk voted Leave because they wanted to make 'Britain Great again' that would be a shame.
We'll have to see what happens if the position does become EEA. I don't see why Scotland or NI would leave the Union if we stayed in the single market and kept mostly free movement.
R4 Wato stating Dan Jarvis has ruled himself out which leaves Eagle and Watson to fight it out for contender against Corbyn.Eagle is still the value bet but the price keeps contracting.25s will do me.
Yes, well she's the obvious choice, an oven-ready, Corbyn-untainted PM-in-waiting who could match Theresa May for seriousness and make Boris look like a smirking schoolboy.
Labour would be out of their minds not to choose her as Corbyn's replacement. So it won't be her, I guess.
Sadly, a fine analysis as usual from Richard.
If the choice is Watson, Eagle or Corbyn, I expect Corbyn to win. With Cooper it would be less clear.
Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.
If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher
Imagine a world were Dave had actually stuck to his guns.
Dave could have come back from his essentially failed renegotiation and said "Due to EU intransigence I have to recommend we leave the EU, and subsequently join EFTA so that we are in the EEA". If that was the government recommendation and the explicit outcome of the referendum result, Dave would have won it with ease, all the market panic would have been avoided, and mostly everyone apart from die-hard Lib Dem and Labour europhiles would have been happy.
If the loss of the EU as a single market was mitigated by deals with US, Canada, Australia, Korea, Japan - would Scotland vote to stick with Latvia, Croatia and tariffs with England?
This isn't just about the EU deal; it's about the global ones that Europe has failed to deliver.
Almost anyone would be better than Corbyn. But neither Watson nor Eagle impress me much. A bit dispiriting if it's not someone a bit better than them.
Cooper did well in the latter stages of the last leadership election and at least has some ministerial experience. Either Umunna or Starmer would bring a bit of star quality.
At the end of the day as long as Corbyn is ousted it's progress. But I fear he's going to hang on until he's wrenched from power.
Agree with this post, but step one has to be the removal of Corbyn. Eagle may be looking at a caretaker role.
Please let "im northern and i eat chips and gravy" Burnham stand....
Mr. D, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland chaining England to the EU would be fine?
It was a democratic vote.
No chaining going on, just don't be surprised when the UK breaks apart as a result.
And given how many English folk voted Leave because they wanted to make 'Britain Great again' that would be a shame.
We'll have to see what happens if the position does become EEA. I don't see why Scotland or NI would leave the Union if we stayed in the single market and kept mostly free movement.
Yes, I think that would probably work out OK. Give the Scots control of fisheries and a few people will even be happy. The danger would be if we have a prolonged downturn as a result of the current instability as this would cause most Scots to think they were better off on their own no matter what the final situation.
Its still a shame however as the SNP were just starting to be on the back foot regarding their policies and Unionism finally had a chance to recapture the advantage but that has been delayed indefinitely for now.
Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.
If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher
Imagine a world were Dave had actually stuck to his guns.
Dave could have come back from his essentially failed renegotiation and said "Due to EU intransigence I have to recommend we leave the EU, and subsequently join EFTA so that we are in the EEA". If that was the government recommendation and the explicit outcome of the referendum result, Dave would have won it with ease, all the market panic would have been avoided, and mostly everyone apart from die-hard Lib Dem and Labour europhiles would have been happy.
Dave is a fool.
As long as EEA wasn't the final destination, I could live with it. Make it so, Mr Prime Minister, whoever the hell you are going to be.
One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).
The UK is in a strong position.
Who wouldn't jump at doing a deal with a new player with the 5th largest economy? The EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall has fallen.
Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.
If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher
I'd say 75/25, higher if the EU allowed them to join the CTA instead of Schengen.
Yes, possibly.
Either way there really seems little option. We have to be in the single market, to save the economy, to save the union. And if we have to be in the single market, we may as well be in the EEA. We're just gonna have to suck it up, re Free Movement, and try and do something on benefits as a pull-factor. And the EEA model is there, it can be taken down from the shelf and used almost at once. And we NEED to act fast as trust and confidence are ebbing away.
People on here might not believe it but I have friends who already losing lots of money, businesses wobbling etc
That's it. That's the choice, if we are going to LEAVE it's EEA. Once you grasp this it gets a lot easier.
The only alternatives are rerunning the referendum, or ignoring the result.
Well it's pretty glum in the office since a lot of us get paid our bonuses in options, the company share price isn't looking too hot at the moment. I don't think it's anything more than a temporary blip if we stay in the single market, without it we are looking at the break up of the Union and between 3 and 7 years of hard work to get us back on an even keel.
If the loss of the EU as a single market was mitigated by deals with US, Canada, Australia, Korea, Japan - would Scotland vote to stick with Latvia, Croatia and tariffs with England?
This isn't just about the EU deal; it's about the global ones that Europe has failed to deliver.
It's about identity. Is Scotland a modern, mainstream European country, or is it an appendage of a British state that wants to go in a different direction?
R4 Wato stating Dan Jarvis has ruled himself out which leaves Eagle and Watson to fight it out for contender against Corbyn.Eagle is still the value bet but the price keeps contracting.25s will do me.
Yes, well she's the obvious choice, an oven-ready, Corbyn-untainted PM-in-waiting who could match Theresa May for seriousness and make Boris look like a smirking schoolboy.
Labour would be out of their minds not to choose her as Corbyn's replacement. So it won't be her, I guess.
Sadly, a fine analysis as usual from Richard.
If the choice is Watson, Eagle or Corbyn, I expect Corbyn to win. With Cooper it would be less clear.
@BethRigby: So, gossip in HoC -- @BorisJohnson got about 100 backers & Theresa May on abt 80. Crabb/Javid 20+. @LiamFoxMP, Hunt, Morgan thinking abt it
@BethRigby: So, gossip in HoC -- @BorisJohnson got about 100 backers & Theresa May on abt 80. Crabb/Javid 20+. @LiamFoxMP, Hunt, Morgan thinking abt it
~135 undeclared.....
110 required to make the membership ballot for sure.
If we stay in the EEA we can limit migration via safeguard measures under Article 112. This can be done for years.
There was a good article somewhere which, in short, IIRC, said that the emergency brake (is that Article 112?) is an initial three months and the EU is looking to lift it as soon as possible almost as soon as it's triggered. Also that it would be difficult, with around 40m visitors per year, to argue that the UK was undergoing social, economic, upheaval, or whatever the words were..
The Agreement stipulates "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist". It stipulates that the contracting party must give the other parties one month's notice, except "When exceptional circumstances requiring immediate action exclude prior examination".
All that's said about lifting the restrictions is that "The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application". If the other contracting parties believe the safeguards create "an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement," they can "take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of the EEA."
There is a big question of longterm goodwill I think, even though London voted to stay IN the EU, it is ultimately a part of England. Belfast has particular issues that are peculiar to itself historically.
Meanwhile the whole of Scotland voted to remain, and every single major political party in Scotland was pretty much fullsomely remain and it voted to stay in in every area both middle and working class.
Unless London suddenly declares independence, which despite @Bobajob and @AlastairMeeks best wishes I predict won't happen then I'd have to say Scotland looks alot better for a business if you want the full blooded EU experience as a company planning future investments and so forth. If Labour gets trounced in the north of England then UKIP might emerge as a strong force here - again I'm not sure that is the sort of country companies might want to be investing for the long term in.
Throughout the last few years the SNP have campaigned relentlessly positively unlike the Conservatives largely negative campaigns (The two big beast parties in England and Scotland respectively). It may well now pay off handsomely for the Scots as they leave and take the key EU-US bridge role with them.
Mr. Glenn, will the SNP campaign for Scotland to join the euro?
The question is rather, will the SNP have a viable plan for the currency post-independence? The EU will ensure they have the answer they didn't have last time.
One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).
The UK is in a strong position.
Who wouldn't jump at doing a deal with a new player with the 5th largest economy? The EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall has fallen.
Look, all od that stuff is great rhetoric but in the real world we can't just send Wills and Kate to India for a weekend and come back with a free trade deal, it will be a minimum of 4 years before we sign our first one independently of the EU. There are going to be some pretty hard days ahead if we leave the single market without getting all of that done first. I have our projections on fully out, they aren't pretty.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
I think some people on here have got themselves into a pseudo-denial PB Intelligentsia comfort zone with the EEA and what we can and can't do in it.
It was mentioned to me some time ago (ie about three weeks) that the EU simply did not believe that it was appropriate for an economy the size of the UK to be in the EEA, which, broadly, takes its instructions or many of them, from the EU. To say nothing of whether it would be acceptable for the current EEA countries (ie Norway).
And then to say we can apply the emergency brake (found the interesting article here) again, is more wishful thinking than cold hard analysis.
That said, of course, we are in a hugely different position now that we have voted to leave, rather than being about to vote to leave, so perhaps EU positions have changed. But I would beware the butterfly and the hurricane; a small change in initial conditions can lead to hugely different outcomes and at the moment some have convinced themselves that EEA, emergency brake is all done bar the shouting (of which of course there will be lots).
As long as EEA wasn't the final destination, I could live with it. Make it so, Mr Prime Minister, whoever the hell you are going to be.
I think EFTA will have a lot more clout if we join it, particularly if others follow.
I expect that in the long run we actually will end up with what we ought to have persuaded the EU to adopt; an explicitly two-speed Europe, with an almost exclusively trade focused tier and an inner core with fiscal and political union.
One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).
The UK is in a strong position.
Who wouldn't jump at doing a deal with a new player with the 5th largest economy? The EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall has fallen.
Look, all od that stuff is great rhetoric but in the real world we can't just send Wills and Kate to India for a weekend and come back with a free trade deal, it will be a minimum of 4 years before we sign our first one independently of the EU. There are going to be some pretty hard days ahead if we leave the single market without getting all of that done first. I have our projections on fully out, they aren't pretty.
A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.
Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.
The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.
But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.
Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
Doesn't usually happen in Manchester city centre, which is why I work here and spend most of the week here.
Mr. Glenn, the euro existed last time. The SNP pretended they would have the pound. It'll be intriguing to see whether they go for that or the euro.
Mr. glw, well, quite. Cameron will have many a year to rue his mistakes, many of which were resoundingly obvious [almost everyone here immediately damned the 'Little England' line].
Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.
If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher
I'd say 75/25, higher if the EU allowed them to join the CTA instead of Schengen.
People on here might not believe it but I have friends
I must say I for one do find that very hard to believe.
lol. Actually I won't have that many friends if I keep spending every hour or every day on here.
This fucking referendum is STILL screwing up my life.
HOW mealy mouthed is that about Indy? It is our 'intention' and 'access to the single market' - hardly a call to arms to race back into the arms of Brussels! Nicola - smart cookie. She'll make the most of the chaos, then claim credit for the eventual benefits of BREXIT.
Amused to see the same people who claim Cameron got a 'rubbish' deal now embracing the worse deal of EEA.
In a while, Cameron's deal will be seen for what it was - the best possible option for the UK. Too late now, of course - the mindless slagging-off won the day for chaos.
@BethRigby: So, something else I've picked up on #ToryLeadership; May is gaining momentum as #ABB candidate. Told female MPs moving to May over Johnson
One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).
The UK is in a strong position.
Who wouldn't jump at doing a deal with a new player with the 5th largest economy? The EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall has fallen.
Look, all od that stuff is great rhetoric but in the real world we can't just send Wills and Kate to India for a weekend and come back with a free trade deal, it will be a minimum of 4 years before we sign our first one independently of the EU. There are going to be some pretty hard days ahead if we leave the single market without getting all of that done first. I have our projections on fully out, they aren't pretty.
Let's see, and did I mention the Royals - no.
Thanks for patronising me.
No, but you seem to be under the impression that this all happens overnight. Tomorrow we leave the EU and by next Monday we've signed free trade deals with India, Australia, Canada, South Korea and Japan. It's going to be at least 4 years until one of those is done, and ita most likely to be Canada or South Korea, nations with which we can just use the existing EU deal and modify it to suit each country a bit better.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
The amount of administrative costs that will go up if we leave the single market is difficult to even imagine.
Today, for us, a truck leaves our German warehouse and next morning [ sometime a day alter ] comes and delivers. Apart from signing that we have received the goods, nothing else is needed.
Once a month, we submit an Intrastat document [ basically exports and imports to/from EU ]. The total figure simply goes in the VAT Return. That's it.
Outside, the single market, each shipment will have duties / taxes to pay. Therefore, our bank will want far more deposits for deferment payments. Of course, each shipment will require customs papers to be filled. Our shipper will probably do it - at a cost.
I cannot begin to imagine what it will be like. This is just about truck shipments in.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Equally, there are lots of countries in the world which aren't part of the United States. That doesn't mean that Arizona could secede from the US without an economic hit.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
And people who love making a drama about everything will get their rocks off.
Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.
If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher
I'd say 75/25, higher if the EU allowed them to join the CTA instead of Schengen.
People on here might not believe it but I have friends
I must say I for one do find that very hard to believe.
lol. Actually I won't have that many friends if I keep spending every hour or every day on here.
This fucking referendum is STILL screwing up my life.
we have a long way to go before we know whether it has worked or not. But taking your example, and also @MaxPB's of the mood in his office.
I will only say I hope that this was all in your "Brexit model" and that your subsequent forecast upswing is significant enough, and comes soon enough, to affect things positively.
So if Jezza wins and defeats this challenge, does that mean that he counts as "Next Labour Leader" and all bets on other candidates are lost, or do they stick until the *next* challenge?
To say nothing of whether it would be acceptable for the current EEA countries (ie Norway).
8:55 p.m. [Monday, 27 Jun 2016]
Members of a European trade alliance that Britain helped set up over a half-century ago say they're open to letting the UK back in now it has voted to leave the European Union.
Ministers from the European Free Trade Association met Monday in Bern for a previously planned gathering, but Britain's decision last week to leave the EU loomed large.
At a time when France actively blocked Britain from joining the EU's predecessor, Britain helped create EFTA as an alternative. It left EFTA in 1972 to join the EU, but English remains the official working language of its four current members: Switzerland, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.
EFTA leaders noted that Britain has many issues to work through, but Swiss President Johann Schneider-Ammann told reporters that its return would strengthen the association. [source]
Mr. Glenn, will the SNP campaign for Scotland to join the euro?
The question is rather, will the SNP have a viable plan for the currency post-independence? The EU will ensure they have the answer they didn't have last time.
Have the SNP discussed the possibility of their entry with Spain and have they received assurances that there will be no veto to their entry.
Back to the granstanding Nicola - it's all she's good for.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
That is absolutely the problem. The government did no contingency planning. They have done no secret negotiations with the US or Australia just in case we voted to leave so on Monday they could announce that on leaving the EU we would immediately sign free trading agreements with such and such nations, we're still open for business and now we're globally competitive. It is truly lamentable how poor the planning has been for non-EU trade given that Brexit has been a 50/50 shot for over a year.
A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.
Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.
The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.
But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.
Came home to me today too. Was in a restaurant we go to regularly run by a French couple and the lady was telling us with tears welling up in her eyes about getting 3 phone calls on Friday telling her and her husband to "f*ck off back to France" and worse. She was really shaken.
Now I know that in the whole scheme of things these things are isolated incidents but this is not turning out to this country's finest hour and I can't honestly say I see it improving any time soon.
I suspect the British version will get one more series to try and get it right.
Its a bloody awful show. The presenters aren't funny or engaging and all their do is rerun stunts from the Clarkson version of Top Gear....oh and the US version ain't very good either.
Amused to see the same people who claim Cameron got a 'rubbish' deal now embracing the worse deal of EEA.
In a while, Cameron's deal will be seen for what it was - the best possible option for the UK. Too late now, of course - the mindless slagging-off won the day for chaos.
A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.
Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.
The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.
But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.
Came home to me today too. Was in a restaurant we go to regularly run by a French couple and the lady was telling us with tears welling up in her eyes about getting 3 phone calls on Friday telling her and her husband to "f*ck off back to France" and worse. She was really shaken.
Now I know that in the whole scheme of things these things are isolated incidents but this is not turning out to this country's finest hour and I can't honestly say I see it improving any time soon.
I hope they find whoever did that and prosecute them. It's not right.
Mr. Urquhart, they do need to axe Shouty McShoutface. Haven't watched Top Gear since I tried making it through the intro of this series' first episode [I switched off].
To say nothing of whether it would be acceptable for the current EEA countries (ie Norway).
8:55 p.m. [Monday, 27 Jun 2016]
Members of a European trade alliance that Britain helped set up over a half-century ago say they're open to letting the UK back in now it has voted to leave the European Union.
Ministers from the European Free Trade Association met Monday in Bern for a previously planned gathering, but Britain's decision last week to leave the EU loomed large.
At a time when France actively blocked Britain from joining the EU's predecessor, Britain helped create EFTA as an alternative. It left EFTA in 1972 to join the EU, but English remains the official working language of its four current members: Switzerland, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.
EFTA leaders noted that Britain has many issues to work through, but Swiss President Johann Schneider-Ammann told reporters that its return would strengthen the association. [source]
Interesting. As I said, events have changed...
But is this the same Swiss president who (City AM article) said the Swiss model would not be right for the UK?
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
It is not necessary to have free trade deals in order to trade. South Korea does not have a FTA with the EU or the UK but sells its products here very successfully. The same can be said for China, the USA, Australia, New Zealand and a whole host of other countries.
Going the other way we are not in a single market with any of them but my brother in law works for a company that exports very well, as does JCB, Aston Martin, and so on and so forth.
I think there is whole lot of nonsense being peddled on here. Exports require that we produce products that people want to buy at a price they are prepared to pay. FTAs and single markets are secondary, and will do nothing if we aren't providing what the customers want.
In a while, Cameron's deal will be seen for what it was - the best possible option for the UK.
I'd be amazed if even Dave still thinks that.
I'm absolutely certain he thinks that. It's the crying shame of this whole shenanigans that, having finally got pretty close to an acceptable scenario, voters were conned into voting for a chimera which means that we're now getting all the short-term economic hit but are having to row back desperately.
Amused to see the same people who claim Cameron got a 'rubbish' deal now embracing the worse deal of EEA.
In a while, Cameron's deal will be seen for what it was - the best possible option for the UK. Too late now, of course - the mindless slagging off won the day for chaos.
The French were prepared to negotiate for 6 months Richard, Dave did his negotiating in 3 days. I genuinely thought he might have a go at trying to find allies for certain positions, common friends with common interests but he rushed it. Totally rushed it - it smelt like a stinker of a deal because he didn't try hard enough. Perhaps it was because he thought he could sell anything to the British public, but he fast forwarded the whole process and ended up with a shocker (Or else the expectations management on the deal was worse than UKIP in a by-election, one of the two). Because everything he asked for was all about us all about what was best for England, not what might be best for several different countries in the EU (Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden all have higher gdp/capita than us so he might have been able to find common ground on stuff. But he didn't. I was astonished when my betslip on the timing of the EU referendum lost because it was too soon (I had 2nd half 2016) (I figured he'd still be knee deep trying to get concessions as of now - some setbacks, some wins but not a whirlwind around the EU in a fortnight tour).
He utterly rushed it on a purely political timetable and figured the country would vote "remain" no matter what he came back with - the deal itself barely being mentioned in the campaign was very telling.
Is there any speculation on how the EU plans to tackle its circa E12bn budget hole after we leave?
Are you genuinely bothered or do you just a kick out of the thought of causing economic problems to other countries?
I wanted to dip into the knowledge base of folk on PB. The purpose being to better understand the pressures that exist within the EU on its funding, which will affect their negotiating strategies. Sorry OllyT that you view this as some attack or stirring but do please understand that I am not in the mode of REMAINers who want to talk down economies and forecast the End of Days.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
And people who love making a drama about everything will get their rocks off.
OMG!!! OMG!!! OMG!!!
Seriously, this is beyond tiresome.
Can we assume that there's no risk to your employment?
I think some people on here have got themselves into a pseudo-denial PB Intelligentsia comfort zone with the EEA and what we can and can't do in it.
It was mentioned to me some time ago (ie about three weeks) that the EU simply did not believe that it was appropriate for an economy the size of the UK to be in the EEA, which, broadly, takes its instructions or many of them, from the EU. To say nothing of whether it would be acceptable for the current EEA countries (ie Norway).
And then to say we can apply the emergency brake (found the interesting article here) again, is more wishful thinking than cold hard analysis.
That said, of course, we are in a hugely different position now that we have voted to leave, rather than being about to vote to leave, so perhaps EU positions have changed. But I would beware the butterfly and the hurricane; a small change in initial conditions can lead to hugely different outcomes and at the moment some have convinced themselves that EEA, emergency brake is all done bar the shouting (of which of course there will be lots).
An important point to remember is that whatever deal is done eventually will be as binding as the current one. It will not be something that a future government can just walk away from.
Mr. Glenn, will the SNP campaign for Scotland to join the euro?
The question is rather, will the SNP have a viable plan for the currency post-independence? The EU will ensure they have the answer they didn't have last time.
I think the currency question screwed them last time. They should have gone for a McPound based on a basket of currencies.
But isn't joining EU now conditional on accepting the Euro ?
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
Quite so. And in an ideal world we'd have the five or ten or fifteen years that are required to secure all these trade deals at our leisure, and really nail the details.
We don't. We have months. As confidence flows down the drain, and companies disinvest, the months will shorten.
And people who love making a drama about everything will get their rocks off.
OMG!!! OMG!!! OMG!!!
Seriously, this is beyond tiresome.
Can we assume that there's no risk to your employment?
Mr. Glenn, will the SNP campaign for Scotland to join the euro?
The question is rather, will the SNP have a viable plan for the currency post-independence? The EU will ensure they have the answer they didn't have last time.
I think the currency question screwed them last time. They should have gone for a McPound based on a basket of currencies.
But isn't joining EU now conditional on accepting the Euro ?
Yes, they'd need to have the Euro and initially their own currency which they would peg to EUR in ERM II.
If the loss of the EU as a single market was mitigated by deals with US, Canada, Australia, Korea, Japan - would Scotland vote to stick with Latvia, Croatia and tariffs with England?
This isn't just about the EU deal; it's about the global ones that Europe has failed to deliver.
To be fair, it's delivered quite a few (50ish countries?) - including Korea and Canada. I've no idea if the deals are any good or not, mind. It's not just about saying "hey, no tariffs" and shaking hands, it's also about making sure that our fine Scotch Whiskey doesn't fall foul of some rule about using caramel in it (for example).
I am unable to click any links which have a link text, i.e. which have been actually formatted as such rather than just copy/pasted URLs. Is this just IE playing up?
I suggest those disagreeing with me today actually read Article 112 and Article 113 of the EEA agreement. You must have regular consultations with the EEA about emeregency safeguards but they are decided unilaterally.
Durham (City of) probably voted the lowest leave % in the north east. North West Durham is probably 65% leave
From the northeast? - Check Voted Leave? - Check Voted for Jezza last year? - Check All woman shortlist? - Oh, well, my potential parliamentary career snuffed out after 3 seconds.
Comments
We need to see this as an amazing opportunity.
My. Tyndall, indeed. It's concerning. Had a delivery from a Polish-sounding chap the other day, very civil, couldn't help but wonder if he'd had any abuse to deal with from other customers.
And given how many English folk voted Leave because they wanted to make 'Britain Great again' that would be a shame.
Which we will.
This period follows the same after a terrorist attack. There is always media reports of a massive increase in reports of anti-Muslim / racist behaviour, and the media report every single incident, but when investigation are held, criminals punished etc, you normally find it doesn't match the media focus on it and a month down the line a knuckle dragger will again throw rocks at a Mosque but the media will be obsessed with something else.
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/secondary/448598.jpg
It didn't say:
"Should SCOTLAND remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Correct?
The 2nd prefs will go to the other.
Dave could have come back from his essentially failed renegotiation and said "Due to EU intransigence I have to recommend we leave the EU, and subsequently join EFTA so that we are in the EEA". If that was the government recommendation and the explicit outcome of the referendum result, Dave would have won it with ease, all the market panic would have been avoided, and mostly everyone apart from die-hard Lib Dem and Labour europhiles would have been happy.
Dave is a fool.
This isn't just about the EU deal; it's about the global ones that Europe has failed to deliver.
Instead he got a rubbish deal, then campaigned horrendously, and endured maximum failure as the wages of his incompetence.
Its still a shame however as the SNP were just starting to be on the back foot regarding their policies and Unionism finally had a chance to recapture the advantage but that has been delayed indefinitely for now.
All that's said about lifting the restrictions is that "The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the EEA Joint Committee every three months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application". If the other contracting parties believe the safeguards create "an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Agreement," they can "take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of the EEA."
Meanwhile the whole of Scotland voted to remain, and every single major political party in Scotland was pretty much fullsomely remain and it voted to stay in in every area both middle and working class.
Unless London suddenly declares independence, which despite @Bobajob and @AlastairMeeks best wishes I predict won't happen then I'd have to say Scotland looks alot better for a business if you want the full blooded EU experience as a company planning future investments and so forth. If Labour gets trounced in the north of England then UKIP might emerge as a strong force here - again I'm not sure that is the sort of country companies might want to be investing for the long term in.
Throughout the last few years the SNP have campaigned relentlessly positively unlike the Conservatives largely negative campaigns (The two big beast parties in England and Scotland respectively). It may well now pay off handsomely for the Scots as they leave and take the key EU-US bridge role with them.
"... We have to be in the single market, to save the economy"
Remarkably there are lots of successful economies around the world that are not in the single market and yet seem to have no problem selling into it. Look around your own home.
The idea that one has to be a part of this Single-Market, with all its fees and downsides) to prosper is, frankly, preposterous.
And what a way to prise open the EU. I'm sure many countries view this rigid socialist customs union with as much distaste as some on here.
I think some people on here have got themselves into a pseudo-denial PB Intelligentsia comfort zone with the EEA and what we can and can't do in it.
It was mentioned to me some time ago (ie about three weeks) that the EU simply did not believe that it was appropriate for an economy the size of the UK to be in the EEA, which, broadly, takes its instructions or many of them, from the EU. To say nothing of whether it would be acceptable for the current EEA countries (ie Norway).
And then to say we can apply the emergency brake (found the interesting article here) again, is more wishful thinking than cold hard analysis.
That said, of course, we are in a hugely different position now that we have voted to leave, rather than being about to vote to leave, so perhaps EU positions have changed. But I would beware the butterfly and the hurricane; a small change in initial conditions can lead to hugely different outcomes and at the moment some have convinced themselves that EEA, emergency brake is all done bar the shouting (of which of course there will be lots).
https://twitter.com/PatGlassMP/status/747798443175845888
I expect that in the long run we actually will end up with what we ought to have persuaded the EU to adopt; an explicitly two-speed Europe, with an almost exclusively trade focused tier and an inner core with fiscal and political union.
Thanks for patronising me.
As for these kind of heinous attacks, remember Maggie's words:
"Crime is crime is crime! It is NOT political!".
Mr. glw, well, quite. Cameron will have many a year to rue his mistakes, many of which were resoundingly obvious [almost everyone here immediately damned the 'Little England' line].
In a while, Cameron's deal will be seen for what it was - the best possible option for the UK. Too late now, of course - the mindless slagging-off won the day for chaos.
Today, for us, a truck leaves our German warehouse and next morning [ sometime a day alter ] comes and delivers. Apart from signing that we have received the goods, nothing else is needed.
Once a month, we submit an Intrastat document [ basically exports and imports to/from EU ]. The total figure simply goes in the VAT Return. That's it.
Outside, the single market, each shipment will have duties / taxes to pay. Therefore, our bank will want far more deposits for deferment payments. Of course, each shipment will require customs papers to be filled. Our shipper will probably do it - at a cost.
I cannot begin to imagine what it will be like. This is just about truck shipments in.
What kind of "freedom" is that ?
Just for grins, obviously. Never going to happen
OMG!!! OMG!!! OMG!!!
Seriously, this is beyond tiresome.
I will only say I hope that this was all in your "Brexit model" and that your subsequent forecast upswing is significant enough, and comes soon enough, to affect things positively.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36649402
In the US.
I suspect the British version will get one more series to try and get it right.
Members of a European trade alliance that Britain helped set up over a half-century ago say they're open to letting the UK back in now it has voted to leave the European Union.
Ministers from the European Free Trade Association met Monday in Bern for a previously planned gathering, but Britain's decision last week to leave the EU loomed large.
At a time when France actively blocked Britain from joining the EU's predecessor, Britain helped create EFTA as an alternative. It left EFTA in 1972 to join the EU, but English remains the official working language of its four current members: Switzerland, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.
EFTA leaders noted that Britain has many issues to work through, but Swiss President Johann Schneider-Ammann told reporters that its return would strengthen the association. [source]
Back to the granstanding Nicola - it's all she's good for.
Now I know that in the whole scheme of things these things are isolated incidents but this is not turning out to this country's finest hour and I can't honestly say I see it improving any time soon.
But is this the same Swiss president who (City AM article) said the Swiss model would not be right for the UK?
Going the other way we are not in a single market with any of them but my brother in law works for a company that exports very well, as does JCB, Aston Martin, and so on and so forth.
I think there is whole lot of nonsense being peddled on here. Exports require that we produce products that people want to buy at a price they are prepared to pay. FTAs and single markets are secondary, and will do nothing if we aren't providing what the customers want.
Perhaps it was because he thought he could sell anything to the British public, but he fast forwarded the whole process and ended up with a shocker (Or else the expectations management on the deal was worse than UKIP in a by-election, one of the two). Because everything he asked for was all about us all about what was best for England, not what might be best for several different countries in the EU (Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden all have higher gdp/capita than us so he might have been able to find common ground on stuff. But he didn't. I was astonished when my betslip on the timing of the EU referendum lost because it was too soon (I had 2nd half 2016) (I figured he'd still be knee deep trying to get concessions as of now - some setbacks, some wins but not a whirlwind around the EU in a fortnight tour).
He utterly rushed it on a purely political timetable and figured the country would vote "remain" no matter what he came back with - the deal itself barely being mentioned in the campaign was very telling.
But isn't joining EU now conditional on accepting the Euro ?
Voted Leave? - Check
Voted for Jezza last year? - Check
All woman shortlist? - Oh, well, my potential parliamentary career snuffed out after 3 seconds.