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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn say Jez will carry on if the confidence motion

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  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway.
    I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).
    Quite. I find the notion that the UK needs to copy exactly what Norway does frankly bizarre.

    We're the 5th largest economy on the planet. Norway is 16th.
    After the events of the past few days that first figure really no longer applies.
  • The other advantage of the EEA is that we can sign free trade agreements with everyone under the Sun, making us less dependent on the EU as they shrink to 5% of the world economy. We can then negotiate an exit of the EEA, if we want, without any two year ejector seat.

    Plus we have safeguard measures limiting migration.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Has the Eagle landed???
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Stay in the EU (with a few restrictions on freedom of movement)?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Lennon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    If Yvette is interested, I'll back her (again). Last time, I put her #1, unenthusiastically. Because both she and Burnham were being so careful as to what to say that they were coming up with "if on the one hand, ......."

    I think she will have learnt from that. Plus Brexit has already happened. Representing a Yorkshire seat, she will have far more understanding of the Labour WWC proble.

    She is definitely a ready-made package. But she won't get it.

    Am I the only one who thinks Yvette is quite... errrr... cute?
    You do realise that you are aligning yourself with Ed Balls with those comments...
    EEEuuuWWW - threesomes on PB - No Just no!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    If Corbyn loses and Eagle (for example) gets made leader of the PLP effectively [I did suggest this months ago, incidentally], could Corbyn use the apparatus of the wider Labour Party to deselect/Stalinist purge his opponents in the PLP?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway, though hardly perfect.
    The contribution would be far smaller than we pay now - both Robert Smithson and I using EFTA's own calculations came up with a total UK contribution of around £2 billion gross compared to £15 billion gross at the moment.

    The amount of EU legislation that applies to the single market is less than 10% of what we are subjected to now.
    The danger is that wider legislation gets labelled single market.

    I think that's how the EU got round our social policy opt out.

    Not possible as the EFTA countries have a veto on that. Nothing can be added to the EEA agreement without explicit agreement from the EFTA countries. This is not a case of an internal body reinterpreting rules but of an external treaty that has to be agreed by both sides.
    Good to hear.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ed West
    OMP is Polish think-tank so a v bizarre ethnic slur if one. Be like someone writing 'F**k you Policy Exchange' on a British cultural centre

  • PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I refer honourable PBers to my previous post. Not because it was any good, but because the link is important

    Wolfgang Munchau (very astute on EU matters, and fairly EU-agnostic, by FT standards) nails the future. It will be Norway, and he explains why. I relink, here

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb8dbe8c-3d0c-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz4CsSQ3HZ4

    That's very much a City view, though. When he says "A time-limited but speedily agreed Norway option would respect the will of the voters, the political reality in the UK and in the EU, prove economically least costly and it is flexible", he's right on the last two points, arguably right on the second, but completely wrong on the first.

    Will it end up with anti-free-movement Leave voters being betrayed? Given the speed of buyers' remorse, which has frankly caught me by surprise, it's not unimaginable, as I thought it would be before the referendum. But there would certainly be one hell of a political cost to it.

    Also, I don't think you are right that most Tory Leavers are Hannan-style libertarians. In my experience migration is one their strongest reasons for wanting to leave the EU, essentially because they think the population increase which they attribute to EU membership is unsustainable.
    Boris is pro-migration so is Hannan, I don't think Cash especially cares. Etc. For them it's all about sovereignty.

    Besides the point is they will HAVE to do this, or face economic meltdown, the destruction of the City, desertion of party donors. Choices are narrowing, by the day.

    This is just about the only solution which looks remotely democratic (i.e. we really are LEAVING) while saving the economy
    For the people who just voted leave, the primary expression of lack of sovereignty is immigration. They are seriously playing with fire if this is on the table.
    We're already playing with fire. The economy might burn down. Our choices are dwindling, as I say
    Oh FFS. Are you like this at home too? Let's have Chinese. I've ordered it.
    Oh, I think Indian would be nicer. But I've ordered Chinese.
    Actually, I fancy a pizza. But the delivery guy will be here in 10 mins. Should I call to cancel my order? Will they hate me now? Now ordered Indian. But what if the delivery guy didn't get the cancellation? How can I not tip him? That pizza did sound tasty...
    Is this how SeanT chooses his relationships?
    :innocent:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    felix said:

    Lennon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    If Yvette is interested, I'll back her (again). Last time, I put her #1, unenthusiastically. Because both she and Burnham were being so careful as to what to say that they were coming up with "if on the one hand, ......."

    I think she will have learnt from that. Plus Brexit has already happened. Representing a Yorkshire seat, she will have far more understanding of the Labour WWC proble.

    She is definitely a ready-made package. But she won't get it.

    Am I the only one who thinks Yvette is quite... errrr... cute?
    You do realise that you are aligning yourself with Ed Balls with those comments...
    EEEuuuWWW - threesomes on PB - No Just no!
    stop right there otherwise you'll summon TSE with his usual colourful comment on this matter...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    If we stay in the EEA we can limit migration via safeguard measures under Article 112. This can be done for years.

    No we can't.
    We could do it unilaterally on a temporary basis, to make that permanent we'd need agreement from the EU and other EEA nations. Switzerland are probably going to get something similar in a few months time.
    Switzerland are having all their cooperative programs with the EU cut in the next couple of months. I was at a meeting last week where the Swiss representative was saying how difficult Swiss - EU joint research already is. I don't think Switzerland is an example we want to go anywhere near.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    There remains a chance that the Labour coup could turn out to be exceedingly well orchestrated, given how little wriggle room the party rules allow.

    @PeterfromPutney may yet be vindicated in his forecast earlier.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

    Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

    And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Lowlander said:

    This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

    Hmmm - that is the sound of the MPs - SLab included opting for independence. I'm not sure that is wise, but it could actually be good news for the SCons.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Disraeli said:

    shiney2 said:

    murali_s said:

    Labour MPs seem to forget that in a lot of their strongholds outside London (and even a couple within London, like Barking), people voted in droves to LEAVE, and so were more in tune with LABOUR LEAVE than LABOUR REMAIN.

    F*cking immigrants - that's what it was all about - scary times ahead.
    LABOUR REMAIN believes in 300,000+ immigrants every year for ever.

    It is doomed.

    Gosh! Almost as many people as the entire population of Iceland!
    We are almost certainly going to accept a deal that leaves immigration pretty much where it is now. Anyone now wanting to actually put into effect what many leavers believed they voted for last week have been politically marginalised. Farage & UKIP will resume howling in the wilderness with justified cries of betrayal.

    What Labour Remain believe is irrelevant it will be Tory Leavers having to explain to the electorate in a couple of years time why immigration is still running at 300,000+ a year.

    Ironically the most realistic hope of immigration really declining is if the economy tanks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    Lowlander said:

    This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

    Wait wasn't she the PM in waiting ?

    Ruth's in an utterly impossible situation and I don't think she even has the full backing of her party.

    Willie Rennie just got up to speak. If he manages to score against her, then her future is looking quite bleak and the idea of the Tories as a "strong opposition" is holed below the water line.
    Won't the Scottish Tories have a lot of overlap with the 55% and the 38% in Scotland. Those two groups must have a well aligned Venn diagram. I don't think it is terminal, you can't have a country where 38% of people have no representation.
    The rural Leave may well help the Tories but the urban, WWC Leave will never help them. Ruth was a punching bag in Holyrood today, she's just there to take shots from everyone else and isn't coming out of it looking very good at all.
    It could just be political rope-a-dope. If we are heading for the EEA, then she may be in a position of strength to argue for the Union as it keeps Scotland in the EEA and single market and they get much more influence over UK trade policy than they would in the EU as an independent nation. I think if we left entirely the union may be done for, not 100%, but given the economic shock we'd face for 3-7 years while we did the hard labour of fixing the economy, it may make sense for Scotland to do its own 3-7 years of hard labour and seek EU membership, even if it means having the Euro.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Sack off the whole thing and just stay in the EU?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Pong said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    The leave manifesto was economically impossible.

    You knew it and voted for it anyway.

    You voted for a very large, permanent paycut in exchange for pulling up the drawbridge.
    It is really, really funny except we're all having to pay the same price!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    Is there any speculation on how the EU plans to tackle its circa E12bn budget hole after we leave?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:


    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    It's a question of timing and who blinks first.

    A50, strop, WTO is closest to the expressed wishes of the public today.

    Wait a few weeks

    @D_Shariatmadari: So sad: further Siemens investment in Hull stalls with Brexit "The people of Hull voted overwhelmingly for Leave" https://t.co/kG44JASd1v

    The wishes of the public will be more aligned to "fix this shit" !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Anushka Asthana [edit - guardian Journo]

    MPs are suggesting Angela Eagle is piling up nominations for the Labour leadership contest we’re expecting. Sources also say that there has been a high turnout for the no confidence ballot and that they expect an overwhelming result.

    Is she going to be like Merkel ? Admittedly, I have not paid much attention to her.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lowlander said:

    Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

    "She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

    Brutal.

    That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

    The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway.
    I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).
    Quite. I find the notion that the UK needs to copy exactly what Norway does frankly bizarre.

    We're the 5th largest economy on the planet. Norway is 16th.
    After the events of the past few days that first figure really no longer applies.
    I think we are back in 5th because EUR got weaker. It's a statistical tie really.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    *snip for word count*

    *snip for word count*

    Public grandstanding like Watson pretending to be party leader at PMQs is another matter and would IMO be seen as the plotters trying to preempt the members' decision.
    It's very rich to talk about grandstanding Nick when Corbyn is trying to hold on despite losing a NCV by a landslide.

    If that isn't grandstanding, I don't know what is.
    Indeed. He may have been voted for by the members, but he is still leader of the opposition and leader of the PLP. If he can't actually do that job (and I genuinely can't see how anyone can claim that he can) then he has to go.

    It's pride, it's delusional, and it's all down to what his inner circle (aka the only people he talks to) whisper in his ear.

    Watson is not going to emerge well from this - he knows the damage that is happening, and he's pretending to remain loyal purely to further his own ambitions.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway.
    I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).
    The problem, as SeanT has pointed out, is that a custom deal takes years, during which there will be enormous uncertainty. As the two year mark ticks closer, those firms - particularly in financial services - who depend on Financial Passporting will have to move operations abroad "just in case".
    Which is why I'm spending most of the summer in Paris thanks to you Brexiteers
    1st world problems right here folks ;).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This time last year I had a look at UKIP's targets at a general election:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/2020-ukips-choices.html

    My thinking has, however, moved on a bit. If I get the time, I will do a post for Mike on where I now think UKIP should focus their efforts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I've got the Eagle back onside. I think she'll challenge and fail though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Sack off the whole thing and just stay in the EU?
    And be at the whim of political integration and the ECJ. No thanks. I'll take EEA membership and see what happens after that.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Anushka Asthana [edit - guardian Journo]

    MPs are suggesting Angela Eagle is piling up nominations for the Labour leadership contest we’re expecting. Sources also say that there has been a high turnout for the no confidence ballot and that they expect an overwhelming result.

    I do hope so. My betting slips and genuine concern for Labour's future depend on it.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    surbiton said:

    Anushka Asthana [edit - guardian Journo]

    MPs are suggesting Angela Eagle is piling up nominations for the Labour leadership contest we’re expecting. Sources also say that there has been a high turnout for the no confidence ballot and that they expect an overwhelming result.

    Is she going to be like Merkel ? Admittedly, I have not paid much attention to her.
    Put on 100lb and adopt a German accent? – Don’t think so…! :lol:
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Alistair said:

    Lowlander said:

    Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

    "She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

    Brutal.

    That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

    The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.
    I'm still kind of shocked.

    Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway.
    I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).
    The problem, as SeanT has pointed out, is that a custom deal takes years, during which there will be enormous uncertainty. As the two year mark ticks closer, those firms - particularly in financial services - who depend on Financial Passporting will have to move operations abroad "just in case".
    Which is why I'm spending most of the summer in Paris thanks to you Brexiteers
    Given the time it takes to relocate, you're not the only one doing this. I know others. The main point being that in the case of the ones that I'm aware of, they're likely to go anyway even if a deal is found as trust has evaporated. Their tax revenues will follow them (and yes, they and their employees pay large amounts of tax).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    This time last year I had a look at UKIP's targets at a general election:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/2020-ukips-choices.html

    My thinking has, however, moved on a bit. If I get the time, I will do a post for Mike on where I now think UKIP should focus their efforts.

    If the Conservatives don't try to ignore the Brexit result, UKIP are going to lose a big chunk of support.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    Fishing said:

    shiney2 said:

    Norway means Open Borders. Munchau rarely (ever?) considers/sees a problem there. Some party will have to sell it to the People at an election/ref. Good luck with that.

    It also means having to obey every EU single market directive, no matter how idiotic, and having no say in how they are made, doesn't it? Also making massive annual contributions. I can't see it working in the medium term, though it would undoubtedly calm industry and finance in the short term.

    I think Switzerland is better than Norway.
    I think it's going to be a test of the EU. If they can't manage a custom deal for the UK, they're doomed (note for pedants: we might be doomed too of course).
    The problem, as SeanT has pointed out, is that a custom deal takes years, during which there will be enormous uncertainty. As the two year mark ticks closer, those firms - particularly in financial services - who depend on Financial Passporting will have to move operations abroad "just in case".
    Which is why I'm spending most of the summer in Paris thanks to you Brexiteers
    Start house hunting. I doubt it will be just this summer..
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Jobabob said:

    Has the Eagle landed???

    The Eagle will lay an egg before she ever becomes an effective leader
    Negatives:

    1. Tinny weak voice.
    2. Small even slight stature.
    3. Faffs around in debate.

    Positives:
    1. She ain't Corbyn.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890
    Almost anyone would be better than Corbyn. But neither Watson nor Eagle impress me much. A bit dispiriting if it's not someone a bit better than them.

    Cooper did well in the latter stages of the last leadership election and at least has some ministerial experience. Either Umunna or Starmer would bring a bit of star quality.

    At the end of the day as long as Corbyn is ousted it's progress. But I fear he's going to hang on until he's wrenched from power.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ftwestminster: Sunderland fears for Nissan after Brexit https://t.co/S3WtILM6tz
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    Given our net contribution is over £10bn - if we split that over the others that are +ve - that's about £3bn extra for Germany.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Lowlander said:

    Alistair said:

    Lowlander said:

    Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

    "She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

    Brutal.

    That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

    The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.
    I'm still kind of shocked.

    Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.
    Anyone got a link?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,421
    edited June 2016
    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    Lowlander said:

    This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

    Wait wasn't she the PM in waiting ?

    Ruth's in an utterly impossible situation and I don't think she even has the full backing of her party.

    Willie Rennie just got up to speak. If he manages to score against her, then her future is looking quite bleak and the idea of the Tories as a "strong opposition" is holed below the water line.
    Won't the Scottish Tories have a lot of overlap with the 55% and the 38% in Scotland. Those two groups must have a well aligned Venn diagram. I don't think it is terminal, you can't have a country where 38% of people have no representation.
    According to the Survation Tory 2016 Voters were
    29.6% Of all No voters
    23.8% of all Leave Voters

    Or to pivot on that data
    Of All Leave Voters
    32.4% were 2016 Conservatives
    21.7% of all No Voters

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Post-Brexit-Scottish-Attitudes-Poll.pdf
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Sack off the whole thing and just stay in the EU?
    And be at the whim of political integration and the ECJ. No thanks. I'll take EEA membership and see what happens after that.
    I really cant see much of a downside to the EEA.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I suspect (strongly) that any trade renegotiation will see a small tariff that approximates the lost income from the UK leaving.

    Any maybe a bit more pour encourager les autres (spelling?).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    chestnut said:

    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

    They were. The only problem is, they still are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    UKIPs Top 100 seats to target by Percentage Points behind first place consists of

    40 Labour seats plus 52 Conservative seats.
    As a Top 50 is 22 Labour and 23 Conservative

    Top 100 by absolute votes behind consists of :
    42 Labour and 49 Con
    As a Top 50 it's 26 Labour and 17 Con

    Could you narrow that down to say 10 or 15% behind first place. I suspect the list would be rather short.
    UKIP were second in my constituency, but they were 41% behind.
    The list of seats where UKIP was 15% or less behind the winner.

    Boston & Skegness
    and
    that's it.

    So 100% of the seats on the list are Conservative!
    List of seats where the SNP were within 15% of Labour pre-GE 2015:

    Ochil & Perthshire South
    I was about to do that exact comparison - I was going to check the largest lead overturned by the SNP.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    On BBC2 coverage of the Holyrood debate, the final words of David Torrance are that a second referendum is inevitable. Who next, Alan Cochrane?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I'm just going to sit tight and see what happens. Leaving the EU is far too complicated to be summarised in a pithy post on here.

    It'll be Christmas before we can really form a view as to what's going on. We really need to read the smoke signals from the Germans over a reasonable period of time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    chestnut said:

    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

    I thought her whole performance was OTT TBH. I assume her style is the norm in Holyrood - I came away disliking her bombastic manner.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

    Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

    And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
    I don't understand the scottish obsession with EU membership.

    If you want to be a self-governing nation, go for it. Don't just go from being a subset of the UK to a subset of the EU.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Lowlander said:

    Alistair said:

    Lowlander said:

    Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

    "She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

    Brutal.

    That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

    The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.
    I'm still kind of shocked.

    Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.
    Anyone got a link?
    Set your iplayer region to Scotland its still in the 2 hour buffer.

    Or go to http://www.scottishparliament.tv/ but I don't know how long it takes for each session to go up. Edit - it has a two hour buffer too, so scroll back on the player.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Stjohn, I agree. Eagle is unimpressive, and Watson is slime.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What?

    One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).

    The UK is in a strong position.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    If we stay in the EEA we can limit migration via safeguard measures under Article 112. This can be done for years.

    There was a good article somewhere which, in short, IIRC, said that the emergency brake (is that Article 112?) is an initial three months and the EU is looking to lift it as soon as possible almost as soon as it's triggered. Also that it would be difficult, with around 40m visitors per year, to argue that the UK was undergoing social, economic, upheaval, or whatever the words were..
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

    Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

    And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
    I don't understand the scottish obsession with EU membership.

    If you want to be a self-governing nation, go for it. Don't just go from being a subset of the UK to a subset of the EU.
    Ultimately, it's up to the Scots. I don't understand it, and I worked there as late as 2012. However, if that's what the majority want, then fair enough.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    felix said:

    Lowlander said:

    This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

    Hmmm - that is the sound of the MPs - SLab included opting for independence. I'm not sure that is wise, but it could actually be good news for the SCons.
    No, both the Lib Dems and Slab were very clear they were not opting for Independence. They were wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending garments at the damage the Conservatives had doen to the Union as they loved the UK so much.

    SCons Unionist credentials took an absolute beating.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    taffys said:

    What?

    One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).

    The UK is in a strong position.

    Dream on...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    notme said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Sack off the whole thing and just stay in the EU?
    And be at the whim of political integration and the ECJ. No thanks. I'll take EEA membership and see what happens after that.
    I really cant see much of a downside to the EEA.
    The downside is that we lose our veto in accession and we lose our final voting rights. The EEA is certainly not without its challenges, but it can be made to work in our favour. It is almost purely an economic and trading partnership. It is what we want from the EU without meddlinf ECJ judges and Brussels Eurocrats.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185

    chestnut said:

    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

    They were. The only problem is, they still are.
    It doesn't look that way; they are now just following party orders.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AmberSkyNews: Watch the "This seems a bad idea" Corbyn shadow cabinet video in full here: https://t.co/oX7u1hTXII
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    40% of EU budget = CAP.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

    stjohn's post moving the market.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lowlander said:

    Jobabob said:

    Lowlander said:

    Alistair said:

    Lowlander said:

    Wow Kezia Dugdale actually giving a decent speach, feels raw, real and utterly heartfelt. Of course its cos she's attacking the Tories. Maybe she will learn.

    "She said, only the Tories can be trusted to protect Britain. Well, Ruth, how's that going now?"

    Brutal.

    That was superb. The whole speech was good - Scottish Labour have an actual identifiable position - support for Sturgeon was intelligently and coherently qualified and what a finale. Practically a career ended for Ruth.

    The shocked ooh around the chamber was priceless.
    I'm still kind of shocked.

    Never in my life did I expect someone of Kezia's caliber could give a genuinely rousing, effective and meaningful speech.
    Anyone got a link?
    Set your iplayer region to Scotland its still in the 2 hour buffer.

    Or go to http://www.scottishparliament.tv/ but I don't know how long it takes for each session to go up. Edit - it has a two hour buffer too, so scroll back on the player.
    About 14:34 to get Dugdale's speech.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    A question I would like some insight on as well. If our net contribution is EU12bn on top of that there is informed speculation that the EU have gaps in their forecast funding for 2017 etc. Therefore are we looking at a need for circa EU20bn in 2018 etc which because some committed projects extend over several years, would reduce the range of options where cuts could be made.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

    Someoe has bet on International Rescue heading in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,421

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
    Doesn't usually happen in Manchester city centre, which is why I work here and spend most of the week here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    40% of EU budget = CAP.
    Yes, it's still the single largest expenditure of the EU. Mad. At least we'll be out of that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

    I thought he was going to resign?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    John_M said:

    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

    Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

    And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
    I don't understand the scottish obsession with EU membership.

    If you want to be a self-governing nation, go for it. Don't just go from being a subset of the UK to a subset of the EU.
    Ultimately, it's up to the Scots. I don't understand it, and I worked there as late as 2012. However, if that's what the majority want, then fair enough.
    Its less an obsession for EU membership, more a disgust at the way England is dragging the rest of the UK into a recession and making us a world wide laughing stock.

    "Dutch PM Rutte gives delay on Art 50 triggering, because: "England has collapsed politically, monetarily, constitutionally and economically""

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    What?

    One thing to remember is the reaction of other countries in the anglosphere. Australia and NZ want a trade deal now. The US too (and Canada?). The US is putting pressure on the EU not to be too tough with Britain (partly because the US is probably exasperated by EU protectionism and socialism).

    The UK is in a strong position.

    Dream on...
    India are already indicating they are keen on opening trade negotiations with us. They are very frustrated that having had to deal with the demands of 28 separate countries in their decade long trade talks with the EU they are still no nearer a deal. There is a lot of interest in a specific UK/India FTA
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Nissan might see an advantage in being based here, if Volkswagen loses their market. But it all shows the weakness of not having businesses with a true stake in the country - and that is all down to governments who care about their salaries and nothing else.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    Lowlander said:

    This Scottish Parliamentary debate is fantastic. Ruth is getting utterly eviscerated from all sides. The Tories seem cowed, they're unable to raise even a weak murmur of protest every time a new speaker rips into their leader and their party.

    Hmmm - that is the sound of the MPs - SLab included opting for independence. I'm not sure that is wise, but it could actually be good news for the SCons.
    No, both the Lib Dems and Slab were very clear they were not opting for Independence. They were wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending garments at the damage the Conservatives had doen to the Union as they loved the UK so much.

    SCons Unionist credentials took an absolute beating.
    And even more importantly, in the election they just did "well" in, Unionism was their sole policy platform.

    They have pivoted to be solely about blocking Independence, they have little policy on the economy or social services or the NHS, I can't think of a single policy of theirs that's not about the Union.
  • Mr. Stjohn, I agree. Eagle is unimpressive, and Watson is slime.

    A wonderful choice. On top of that will be the start of deselections in up to 2/3 of Labour held seats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,924
    Fudge idea:

    - Scottish independence gets fast tracked and becomes a full member of the EU. The UK has now ceased to exist and so has 'left the EU'.
    - Irish unification happens.

    Second referendum in England and Wales only:

    Should England and Wales remain a member of the European Union?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited June 2016

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
    Doesn't usually happen in Manchester city centre, which is why I work here and spend most of the week here.
    Really...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3480054/Moment-Manchester-tram-passengers-unite-confront-abusive-man.html

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3408961/I-don-t-want-teaching-kids-horrendous-moment-woman-racially-abuses-Asian-university-lecturer-friend-Manchester-tram.html

    I could go on...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342
    SeanT said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/747779678182711296

    Yet another reason to go for Norway/EEA/single market. A much better chance of securing the union.

    If we go Norway, I am sure Scotland would stay in the UK. If we quit the single market, then chances of Scotland leaving must be 50/50 or higher

    I'd say 75/25, higher if the EU allowed them to join the CTA instead of Schengen.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:


    I don't know why we bothered to vote Leave. If it is economically impossible to leave the EU, then we have already lost our sovereignty.

    Of course it's not entirely possible to remove ourselves "economically" from the EU. It;s massive, and it's next door. It will always loom very large in our thinking. The Canadians have to accommodate the USA, and Ireland accommodates the UK, for the same reason

    What we CAN do is extrricate ourselves as painlessly as possible from the EU politically, and then, over time, reorientate our trade to the wider world as much as possible, as long as the EU seems set on stagnation. So. EEA Norway option first. Wait for ten years. Then rethink.

    This isn't a counsel of despair, nor of panic. It's just the best choice out of several unideal choices.

    I'd be interested to know what other options LEAVERS (or indeed REMAINERS) might suggest, that simultaneously respects the vote and keeps Britain prosperous?

    Trigger A50, then throw a huge strop at Europe so they refuse to budge so we revert to WTO and no single market access? That impoverishes us, for sure.

    Or just do nothing, don't trigger A50, and watch foreigners edge away and investment dry up, as everyone shuns uncertainty? And - by the by - enrage voters who demanded we LEAVE, thus destroying any faith in our democracy?

    What?
    Stay in the EU (with a few restrictions on freedom of movement)?
    Restrictions on freedom of movement are it seems non negotiable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

    There's going to be no easy way to tell you this, but Lord Falconer has resigned.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. D, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland chaining England to the EU would be fine?

    It was a democratic vote.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Morris_Dancer

    'Mr. Stjohn, I agree. Eagle is unimpressive, and Watson is slime.'


    Both charisma free zones but up against Corbyn anyone would look like an improvement.

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,890

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

    stjohn's post moving the market.
    I don't think so!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    Ally_B said:

    chestnut said:

    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

    They were. The only problem is, they still are.
    It doesn't look that way; they are now just following party orders.
    Its a bad line for Ms Davidson though.

    'Trust me, everything I said during the referendum campaign was a lie.'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Based on this morning, no doubt some commentators on here are grinning about that story
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Alistair said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

    I thought he was going to resign?
    You'd be wise not pay so much heed to Westminster tittle tattle, Alistair.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
    Saying it happens every week is not really an answer. It is clear from the police reports that these types of attacks have increased substantially since last Thursday and it really doesn't help anyone to try and deny that. Better to confront it and make sure it is both condemned and dealt with.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747797344104648704
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mr. D, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland chaining England to the EU would be fine?

    It was a democratic vote.

    Yes!

    Looks like the rule is heads I win, tails you lose.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    chestnut said:

    Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who argued for Remain in the BBC's Big Debate at Wembley, says her side was told they were "overplaying the impact of Brexit".

    They were. The only problem is, they still are.
    With Osborne still in place threatening cuts and more taxes to depress the economy. Surely Boris/Theresa etc will recognise that he has to go and go quickly? Maybe Gove etc calls a cabinet meeting and demands silence on future actions, excluding nominated candidates?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,421

    I use this tram on a regular basis. :sadface:

    A man has been the victim of a racist attack on a tram in Manchester with youth shouting ‘get back to Africa’, authorities have confirmed.

    Witnesses have described the abuse as ‘horrendous’ as at least three youths are seen shouting abuse at a man in a tram in Central Manchester on Tuesday morning.

    The man, who appeared to have an American accent and be of mixed race, is seen asking the teenagers to stop swearing in front of children.

    But the youth shouted back: “F--- get off the tram now. Don’t chat s---t or get deported”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/teens-hurl-abuse-at-man-on-manchester-tram/

    Unfortunately this happens every week. The Daily Mail (of all people) have at least one piece a week of somebody capturing on a mobile phone a clip of some sort of racial abuse being hurled on public transport.
    Doesn't usually happen in Manchester city centre, which is why I work here and spend most of the week here.
    Really...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3480054/Moment-Manchester-tram-passengers-unite-confront-abusive-man.html

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3408961/I-don-t-want-teaching-kids-horrendous-moment-woman-racially-abuses-Asian-university-lecturer-friend-Manchester-tram.html

    I could go on...
    That's Salford. Not proper Mancs.

    Oh God, I've officially become a Manc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,342

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747797344104648704
    So both are going to stand and split the vote.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Corbyn be on the ballot ?

    Can Eagle force a 1 horse race ?

    Perhaps Charlie Falconer could swoop in?

    Someoe has bet on International Rescue heading in.
    Thunderbirds Are Go
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @ftwestminster: Sunderland fears for Nissan after Brexit https://t.co/S3WtILM6tz

    It was so bleeding obvious. They even said so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Is NPXMPX2 on?

    If so, what is the thinking behind two muppets being put up to challenge Jezza? Is it so one on them wins and then organises a proper leadership election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Pulpstar said:

    Both Eagle and the Nonce finder drifting a bit.

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747797344104648704
    But what odds will the winner of the #1 contender bout be ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    JonathanD said:

    John_M said:

    Lowlander said:

    TGOHF said:

    So if the Uk is a net contributor - which countries will see their handouts cut the most- or will it be equally across the board ?

    I believe the CAP is where the bulk of the cash goes, so farming economies.

    We'll also be leaving CFP, so that will upset the spanish.
    The Spanish are the biggest CFP beneficiaries in the EU. And their fishing industry is particularly large in areas where Madrid needs to be seen to be beneficial (Galicia, Euskadi).

    Yet their easiest solution is to back Scottish Independence.

    And they don't have a government or the prospect of a government.
    I don't understand the scottish obsession with EU membership.

    If you want to be a self-governing nation, go for it. Don't just go from being a subset of the UK to a subset of the EU.
    Ultimately, it's up to the Scots. I don't understand it, and I worked there as late as 2012. However, if that's what the majority want, then fair enough.
    Its less an obsession for EU membership, more a disgust at the way England is dragging the rest of the UK into a recession and making us a world wide laughing stock.

    "Dutch PM Rutte gives delay on Art 50 triggering, because: "England has collapsed politically, monetarily, constitutionally and economically""

    We should really not spend so much time worrying about what tiny little countries say about us. The Netherlands has its own problems. They're also meant to be a friend, a partner and an ally.
This discussion has been closed.