Undefined discussion subject.

Look at that May surge!

Crossover!!!

Third. Like .. er .. Labour or the Lib Dems at the next Election.

JohnO said:

FPT but more relevant to this

Just completed a YouGov poll with most of the questions on the Tories and the leadership. Just loving ticking the box expressing max dissatisfaction for Johnson and Gove. And for TSE, I 'voted' for May as next leader....a day is a long time in politics down 'Ersham way.

I've just completed that YouGov too.

We are of like minds.

Boris is on my short list of people who have always given me mental dyspepsia. Saville was another one, for very different reasons of course.

OllyT said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

numbertwelve said:

JamesM said:

Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.

In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.

Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?

Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.

The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.

So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.

I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.

Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.

What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.

EEA/EFTA is the least worst alternative - but it leaves the situation on the ground largely unchanged albeit with the U.K having far less influence than it did when in the EU. So what was the point of all this? Just to rattle the hearts of a few xenophobic Red BNP types who won't get what they want anyway.

If we get EEA/EFTA wouldnt the ultimate irony be that we get free movement of Turks because we lost our ability to veto it by coming out of the EU!

Deep irony indeed

"It is the system that saw IDS win in 2001 and, of course, Mr. Cameron in December 2005. It would not have allowed a hapless no-hoper like Labour’s Corbyn who only got into the members’ ballot because because some non-supporters decided to nominate him."

I find these statements contradictory.

MaxPB said:

"It is the system that saw IDS win in 2001 and, of course, Mr. Cameron in December 2005. It would not have allowed a hapless no-hoper like Labour’s Corbyn who only got into the members’ ballot because because some non-supporters decided to nominate him."

I find these statements contradictory.

IDS is a political titan compared to Corbyn

The direction of travel may not necessarily be to Johnson’s advantage.

PlatoSaid said:

JohnO said:

FPT but more relevant to this

Just completed a YouGov poll with most of the questions on the Tories and the leadership. Just loving ticking the box expressing max dissatisfaction for Johnson and Gove. And for TSE, I 'voted' for May as next leader....a day is a long time in politics down 'Ersham way.

I did one all about Labour. It asked if I thought Corbyn was doing a great job as Labour leader - I *strongly agreed*

Did they ask if you were a member of any party?
I'm sure that with their partisan hats on, 99% of Tory members think Corbyn is doing a fantastic job at failing to provide any opposition whatsoever to the government!

PlatoSaid said:

Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts

Because it's true

AlastairMeeks said:

Those shaking the darling buds of May should remember that summer's lease hath all too short a date.

Only has to last long enough to crush Boris

AlastairMeeks said:

Those shaking the darling buds of May should remember that summer's lease hath all too short a date.

The Labour leadership has gone much better for me, must say.

Scott_P said:

PlatoSaid said:

Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts

Because it's true

Well, it may help him meet his fiscal mandate

GIN1138 said:

This is going to take weeks to get to thw final two isn't it?

I don't have a vote as I'm not a Con member, but we need to see. in detail, exactly what Boris and Theresa's versions of BREXIT look's like. And it would be helpful if we can hear from soon.

Probably not. After the first ballot it will become abundantly clear who is in with a chance and the no hopers will drop out.

@RodCrosby

Any markets open the Labour Party splitting?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did read Boris wants Ozzy to continue as Chancellor, because being Chancellor won't be fun and a career ender for Gove.

Apparently the cuts in our credit ratings means selling Government debt will be harder as some organisations only buy debt from top rated countries.

Most of those requirements were relaxed after the US lost its triple A rating. In any case it seems likely that the BoE will announce £50-75bn in QE to calm markets and to ensure there are no failures in debt auctions.

PlatoSaid said:

Sandpit said:

PlatoSaid said:

JohnO said:

FPT but more relevant to this

Just completed a YouGov poll with most of the questions on the Tories and the leadership. Just loving ticking the box expressing max dissatisfaction for Johnson and Gove. And for TSE, I 'voted' for May as next leader....a day is a long time in politics down 'Ersham way.

I did one all about Labour. It asked if I thought Corbyn was doing a great job as Labour leader - I *strongly agreed*

Did they ask if you were a member of any party?
I'm sure that with their partisan hats on, 99% of Tory members think Corbyn is doing a fantastic job at failing to provide any opposition whatsoever to the government!

They asked who I voted for last time and if there was an election tomorrow - I said Tory. I ticked both Labour and Tory boxes on the 'have you ever been a member of a Party' question.

It was all a bit strange.

Ha ha, will be funny to see when it's published - and how much things have moved on in the meantime.

By the end of today we are most likely looking at both major parties running simultaneous leadership elections - when was the last time that happened??

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did read Boris wants Ozzy to continue as Chancellor, because being Chancellor won't be fun and a career ender for Gove.

Apparently the cuts in our credit ratings means selling Government debt will be harder as some organisations only buy debt from top rated countries.

Most of those requirements were relaxed after the US lost its triple A rating. In any case it seems likely that the BoE will announce £50-75bn in QE to calm markets and to ensure there are no failures in debt auctions.

I think it is the two notch drop that is causing issues.

City bloke on sky said the credit rating "didn't really matter", and mattered more for corporations. Not sure if he was an "expert" though.........

FPT (I'm a bit late...)

Given the talk of a new election in the Autumn post Conservative leadership, but the issues around the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Tories not wanting to lose advantage - how about this for an idea... PM Crabb, May, (or whoever) gets elected and states:

It is very clear that the UK has voted for Brexit and that must be honoured. What is less clear is what sort of exit we want - what should be primary in the negotiations - and we need to respect the views of the whole country - those who voted Remain as well as those who voted Leave.

Meanwhile - whilst Brexit is clearly the most important issue - the role of government continues, our security, economy etc. - none of this stops. As PM I lead a Conservative majority in the House of Commons and I wish to continue that - it is not the time for the additional uncertainty of a General Election.

Instead I am calling an election to appoint a Brexit negotiating group. This election will be run on the simple premise - 'what sort of Brexit do you want, what do you think is important in negotiations'. In order to ensure that we accommodate the widest possible range of views across the country this election will simply be run on the same basis, as the European Parliament Elections. Those current members of the European Parliament that want to take a serious role in negotiations can stand and I anticipate this group of 73 people to take the lead in establishing what sort of Brexit the country wants - what works best for all people and all nations of this great United Kingdom.

Once this election has taken place, and we have a group that can discuss negotiations, then I will invoke Article 50.

That way you have an election to confirm the type of Brexit, but not a General Election and it can be focused on specific things. You then also have a large enough group to accommodate multiple views and all nations, but small enough to be able to actually discuss things, and on a basis that is clear and already in place.

There is a huge difference between electing a new leader now, who will immediately be PM, and electing a new leader in the aftermath of an election defeat, who would have in principle 5 years.

In the current circs, it has to be May for me. Can't take BoJo seriously,

Stephen Crabb may be one for the future, but not now.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did read Boris wants Ozzy to continue as Chancellor, because being Chancellor won't be fun and a career ender for Gove.

Apparently the cuts in our credit ratings means selling Government debt will be harder as some organisations only buy debt from top rated countries.

Most of those requirements were relaxed after the US lost its triple A rating. In any case it seems likely that the BoE will announce £50-75bn in QE to calm markets and to ensure there are no failures in debt auctions.

I think it is the two notch drop that is causing issues.

Those requirements will probably be relaxed because Gilts are a very liquid market and as of now UK debt carries a AAA premium, regardless of the ratings agencies. How it shakes out in the long term is unknown, but Gilt yields are at record lows, partly because some expext the economy to underperform and partly because Gilts are a safe haven investment. Additionally, many expext the BoE to announce QE which will raise Gilt prices allowing for a very quick and easy ROI.

The starting point for me is to see where Con MPs sit. According to BBC we had 185 for REMAIN, 138 for LEAVE and 7 undeclared, however the bulk of the REMAIN were MPs in Govt jobs so I would set the real picture as under 80 europhile REMAIN, 112 careerist/undec (inc undec) and 138 eurosceptic LEAVE. Therefore the pull on their votes are going to be a combination of their leaning and a judgement on who could win them the election. Therefore:-
LEAVErs Boris+Andrea+Liam have a pool of about 250
REMAINers May+Hunt+Crabb+Morgan a pool of about 192

Lennon said:

That way you have an election to confirm the type of Brexit

There's a problem with that.

So we have this election and we select Brexit option B, which we then take to the EU, who tell us to take a hike.

We wanted it, we voted for it, we can't have it...

For me the options are someone who will say "despite the vote we are not leaving", (democratic if they put that to a GE)

or Boris who has to try and salvage something, anything from his own wreckage (democratic and foolish)

PlatoSaid said:

Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?

He's stirring.

Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed

No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: It's becoming increasingly clear that Britain is not going to leave the EU. The issue now is how is to explain that to the British people.

Hasn't Hodges been wrong with most of his predictions lately?

chestnut said:

PlatoSaid said:

YellowSubmarine said:

PlatoSaid said:

Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?

He's stirring.

Because it's true and he said as much before the referendum. He's lost but he's going to be proved right in the longer term. He's playing the long game.

Mervyn King said yesterday it was the exact opposite of what you'd do and he was 'baffled' by it.

Indeed.

The problem Osborne has is that he has failed to fix the roof while the sun is shining.

To be fair, there has not been much sunshine... and a bloody big hole in the roof

Paristonda said:

anecdote: my father is a strong Tory Thatcherite leave voter, not at all regretful, based in outer London so voted for Boris twice, doesn't dislike him at all, fine job as mayor, but is not a stable prime minister. He wants Theresa May, because she is the serious candidate.

My mum is a strong Tory remainer, used to like Boris as mayor voted for him twice, thinks he's a bit of a buffoon, would prefer Theresa.

On this sample of two, Boris loses the remain and leave Tory votes. I think most members will come to the same conclusion (admittedly my parents are lifelong Tory voters but never been members so there is a difference there)

I think Boris winning would personally be better for Remain as he can get away with more 'betrayal' of the leave cause than Theresa can as a remainer.

Yes agree. Theresa May is, or wants to portray herself as a WYSIWYG candidate - the polar opposite of Boris. I think the tens of thousands pledge will be laid at Dave's door (think Vardy/Hodgson).

Whatever the mandate - in, out, EEA, Albania, she will I'm sure pursue it with grim determination.

RodCrosby said:

Le Pen follows...

One bigot following another...

TGOHF said:

Regarding the timetable - we know that nominations have to be in by Noon on Thursday - any idea when the results of the MP vote will be announced ?

They vote every Tuesday and Thursday until they get it down to the final who then go out to the party membership.

I'm hoping that everyone will come to their senses and we'll have a much narrower field to start off with on Thursday.

Didn't know that Marine LePen was an MEP.

She's being rather triumphant and praising the British for taking the leap.

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: It's becoming increasingly clear that Britain is not going to leave the EU. The issue now is how is to explain that to the British people.

Another naked bet coming?

RochdalePioneers said:

Its still Boris vs not Boris. I hope that the Tory party finds the choice as impossible and damaging as our Jezza vs not Jezza

May and Boris are not so far apart, really. Not anything like Corbyn - perhaps the parallel is Liam Fox is somehow he became wildly popular.

TGOHF said:

LOLZA at Farage "none of you have done a proper job in your lives..or created a job.."

I think the majority of the EU regards ‘professional politician’ as a proper job.

RobD said:

paulyork64 said:

If there are to be spending cuts I hope HS2 is at the top of the list.

Infrastructure spending seems to be the last thing you'd want to cut. What about foreign aid?

We could spend the hs2 money on housing & extra capacity in the rail network in general. I think the most valid criticism of HS2 is that it is a he'll of a lot of money to knock a few minutes off a trip to Birmingham. Yes it increases capacity, but only on one line.

paulyork64 said:

If there are to be spending cuts I hope HS2 is at the top of the list.

Hinkley Point C would be my pick for cuts.

MaxPB said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Its still Boris vs not Boris. I hope that the Tory party finds the choice as impossible and damaging as our Jezza vs not Jezza

May and Boris are not so far apart, really. Not anything like Corbyn - perhaps the parallel is Liam Fox is somehow he became wildly popular.

Well the worry is that it will be a choice of free movement vs restrictions. I'm not sure that EFTA would win that vote among the membership. It should, and we won't have the problem lf entryists from UKIP to swing the vote in favour of restrictions.

If it's May v Boris it's pretty much EFTA v EFTA I would have thought.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

paulyork64 said:

If there are to be spending cuts I hope HS2 is at the top of the list.

Infrastructure spending seems to be the last thing you'd want to cut. What about foreign aid?

We could spend the hs2 money on housing & extra capacity in the rail network in general.

Ah yep, fair enough.

@DailyMailUK: Boris makes formal complaint about Theresa May's campaign as Tory leadership fight ramps up https://t.co/PEedTG0bHy https://t.co/0xIPRpBaGw