If Boris had lost the referendum 48-52, he'd be favourite for the leadership. The victory has ruined him. Do any of our resident classicists know of a suitable term? @Morris_Dancer
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
'Speaking personally I find May deeply uninspiring.'
My reason for choosing Boris is he comes with Gove. The latter is the only person I really trust to deliver a lasting settlement.
Gove did the thinking for the referendum, and he should do the thinking now. He's been very quiet since the vote - I don;t know why.
It's simple. Gove thinks logcally. He has to square the circle - impossible spending promises made by leave, impossible immigration made by Leave and impossible NHS spending promise - must all be rejected without upsetting those who voted Leave.
Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?
He's stirring.
Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed
No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed
That statement from Osborne should rule him out of the next Govt. He no longer sets the policy and should not be trying to. The new Chancellor needs to be more positive and avoid a panic budget with further cuts (except in the EU and overseas aid)
Why does anyone need to be positive - surely the very fact of Brexit should have sent the £ and the stock markets soaring. You're the one who is off message.
I never said or expected stock markets or the £ to soar and note that FTSE100 is up on Febuary.
The FTSE 100 is only up on February because the £ has fallen so far and the 75% of revenue FTSE 100 companies get from outside the UK is suddenly worth more. This is basic economics - come on.
That is sort of the point. The UK has a balance of payments deficit, so you WANT the pound to fall to make inflows more valuable and exports more competitive. The fall in the pound is great news for the UK economy and demonstrates why (as if it needed repeating) that being in the Euro would be such a disaster. The risk of depreciation is importing inflation which is a low concern right now. The main task should be to make sure the pound stays low where it needs to be to address the balance of payments problem.
Whilst I'm totally not advocating devaluation as an economic tool, has this also not reduced our national debt, because that's denominated in sterling? I don't know this to be a fact, happy to be corrected.
Some of that is true but it also reduces the willingness of the RoW to finance any of that debt so we are still ever so much f*****. Of course the solution is to raise taxes and cut spending - given the high leave vote among the pensioners I can see some options.
Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?
He's stirring.
Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed
No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed
That statement from Osborne should rule him out of the next Govt. He no longer sets the policy and should not be trying to. The new Chancellor needs to be more positive and avoid a panic budget with further cuts (except in the EU and overseas aid)
Why does anyone need to be positive - surely the very fact of Brexit should have sent the £ and the stock markets soaring. You're the one who is off message.
I never said or expected stock markets or the £ to soar and note that FTSE100 is up on Febuary.
The FTSE 100 is only up on February because the £ has fallen so far and the 75% of revenue FTSE 100 companies get from outside the UK is suddenly worth more. This is basic economics - come on.
That is sort of the point. The UK has a balance of payments deficit, so you WANT the pound to fall to make inflows more valuable and exports more competitive. The fall in the pound is great news for the UK economy and demonstrates why (as if it needed repeating) that being in the Euro would be such a disaster. The risk of depreciation is importing inflation which is a low concern right now. The main task should be to make sure the pound stays low where it needs to be to address the balance of payments problem.
Whilst I'm totally not advocating devaluation as an economic tool, has this also not reduced our national debt, because that's denominated in sterling? I don't know this to be a fact, happy to be corrected.
Some government debt is in dollars so the fall in sterling automatically increases the national debt.
Really? What percentage? Why should the UK have been issuing Dollar denominated debt?
There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be. That is extremely naive. It takes two (or in this case, 28) to tango. I doubt very much if EEA membership is even on the table as a starting point, but, even if it were, it's quite certain that there's no 'only the nice bits of the EEA' option.
Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?
He's stirring.
Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed
No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed
That statement from Osborne should rule him out of the next Govt. He no longer sets the policy and should not be trying to. The new Chancellor needs to be more positive and avoid a panic budget with further cuts (except in the EU and overseas aid)
Why does anyone need to be positive - surely the very fact of Brexit should have sent the £ and the stock markets soaring. You're the one who is off message.
I never said or expected stock markets or the £ to soar and note that FTSE100 is up on Febuary.
The FTSE 100 is only up on February because the £ has fallen so far and the 75% of revenue FTSE 100 companies get from outside the UK is suddenly worth more. This is basic economics - come on.
'Speaking personally I find May deeply uninspiring.'
My reason for choosing Boris is he comes with Gove. The latter is the only person I really trust to deliver a lasting settlement.
Gove did the thinking for the referendum, and he should do the thinking now. He's been very quiet since the vote - I don;t know why.
It's looking more and more like Boris comes with Osborne.
Which sounds incredible but it would be a good thing for the Tory party. GO has a lot of support in the party, especially in the ministerial ranks and bridges are going to need to be built.
If Boris, Gove and Osborne can all work together it will provide sharp contrast to the Blairites, Brownites and Corbynites shredding one another across the House.
@SamCoatesTimes: Boris Telegraph y'day column was "written too quickly" and he's tired. Friends agree sloppy & sent mixed messages & will be vetted in future
If Boris had lost the referendum 48-52, he'd be favourite for the leadership. The victory has ruined him. Do any of our resident classicists know of a suitable term? @Morris_Dancer
Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?
He's stirring.
Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed
No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed
That statement from Osborne should rule him out of the next Govt. He no longer sets the policy and should not be trying to. The new Chancellor needs to be more positive and avoid a panic budget with further cuts (except in the EU and overseas aid)
Why does anyone need to be positive - surely the very fact of Brexit should have sent the £ and the stock markets soaring. You're the one who is off message.
I never said or expected stock markets or the £ to soar and note that FTSE100 is up on Febuary.
The FTSE 100 is only up on February because the £ has fallen so far and the 75% of revenue FTSE 100 companies get from outside the UK is suddenly worth more. This is basic economics - come on.
250 is currently up close to 3%
Don't confuse the poor boy with facts.
FTSE 250 revenue is just over 50% from outside UK, so again, drop in value of the £ is beneficial in the short term.
Pound up today against the dollar.
Markets have taken a hit, but it's hardly the collapse of western civilisation.
It was never going to be the end of western civilization but as predicted before, we are going to experience a recession or near static growth for a couple of years and will be poorer over the short, medium and long term than we would have been.
I think long term we;ll have the world beating down our door to do business here and of course you're assuming everything will be hunky dory in the EU...
The worst you can say about May is that she's cold. Maybe her soft Remain is worse than a soft Leave, but there's not too much in that.
Whilst I didn't expect to do so a few months ago, if it is her v Boris (or Fox) I will happily vote for her.
The PB 4 May faction is gathering strength!
IMHO May has more chance of reaching over (or around) to the leavers than Boris has to the remainers.
But. There are IMHO more hardened LEAVErs than hardened REMAINers amongst tory MPs (Step 1) There are 2 LEAVErs for every 1 REMAINer amongst the Tory party members (Step 2).
She needs to convince twice as many as Boris does then - I think she can do that.
Whether it's her fault or not - she's presided over an immigration mess for 6yrs.
Speaking personally I find May deeply uninspiring. Her low profile during the referendum campaign was pretty typical of her time in the Home Office. She is a bureaucrat with only a patina of personality. Her Desert Island Discs program was stunningly dull and I was left checking that she was not even older than I thought.
I think you would have to be very anti-Boris to choose her as leader. No doubt many people are but well meaning, earnest, moderately bright and ultra cautious is not enough for PM. The comparison with what has been lost in Cameron is just painful. This single factor came closer to changing my vote to remain than anything said in the whole campaign.
If Cameron had backed Leave, he'd have carried all before him - his Party members, his MPs and most of his voters/plus all those other Leavers.
Talk about backing the wrong side. The subject of many future books.
Ah - the last thing we need is a politician with principles - much better go for Boris -' you don't like my principles - wait I have some others'
If Boris had lost the referendum 48-52, he'd be favourite for the leadership. The victory has ruined him. Do any of our resident classicists know of a suitable term? @Morris_Dancer
Hannibal. He might win a memorable battle but ultimately loses the war.
That's what pulling me to Team Boris - not something I expected to ever say.
If I was a tory MP that would be my price for support. What are you doing with Michael Gove? I'd like to see him as chancellor, with Leadsom first sec to treasury. Very strong team.
If Boris has sensible and stable people around him, his faults can be forgiven. And faults he certainly has.
If Boris had lost the referendum 48-52, he'd be favourite for the leadership. The victory has ruined him. Do any of our resident classicists know of a suitable term? @Morris_Dancer
Hannibal. He might win a memorable battle but ultimately loses the war.
I was asking for a classicist, but you'll have to do.
There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be. That is extremely naive. It takes two (or in this case, 28) to tango. I doubt very much if EEA membership is even on the table as a starting point, but, even if it were, it's quite certain that there's no 'only the nice bits of the EEA' option.
Thank You Richard. Some people seem to think they are in Tescos and they can pick exactly what they want from the shelf after a mixture of dithering and argument.
There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be. That is extremely naive. It takes two (or in this case, 28) to tango. I doubt very much if EEA membership is even on the table as a starting point, but, even if it were, it's quite certain that there's no 'only the nice bits of the EEA' option.
Well given how much we buy from them (compared to how much they buy buy from us) I can't see why EEA wouldn't be on the table.
But I agree that we won't be able to "cherry pick" and we'll have to accept free movement.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
Miss Plato, there's another lesson to take. If Cameron had campaigned to convince and persuade rather than cajole, frighten and belittle, he wouldn't won.
It turns out 'Little England' isn't a clever catchphrase when the majority of the electorate are English.
I hope to never hear that horrible belittling phrase ever again.
I'm also told there is "growing pressure" on Tom Watson from all wings of the party to stand against Corbyn.
I've just checked the Rule Book. In the event of Corbyn resigning Tom Watson becomes Party Leader Pro Tem. The rule book is clear that an election for a replacement should ordinarily take place at Conference. However, with some doubt as to whether there will be party conferences this year I imagine the NEC will push for an immediate (and accelerated) timetable for a new election.
I think that EEA countries can withdrawal ALL benefits from EU citizens.
Yup, this is the obvious way to square the circle with Leave's immigration promises. In reality it wouldn't make a lot of difference, but immigration (especially net immigration) will most likely be falling anyhow as Britain becomes poorer and more racist.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
They are. I used to work in vehicle washes and the hand cleaners are kicking the crap out of the sector. They cant sell new units and eventually the spares business dries up too. Fortunately most washes are imported from Germany.
It's Pyrrhic, naturally, which is a shame as Pyrrhus was a rather capable chap.
There's also an element of the Battle of Najera (which is modern, of course), which the Black Prince won, but the booty from which was exceeded by the cost of mercenary wages.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
I'm sure they do a very good job but it seems we have gone back thirty years in productivity terms.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
They are. I used to work in vehicle washes and the hand cleaners are kicking the crap out of the sector. They cant sell new units and eventually the spares business dries up too. Fortunately most washes are imported from Germany.
''There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be.''
No illusions from me. You are entirely correct. If we ditch free movement we can kiss the single market goodbye.
Luckily, it seems countries are forming a line to clinch free trade deals with us. ANZAC, West Africa and most importantly the US.
@David_K_Clark: I'm beginning to think Boris won't become PM because too many Tories want to dodge responsibility and get a Remainer to clear up their mess.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
They are. I used to work in vehicle washes and the hand cleaners are kicking the crap out of the sector. They cant sell new units and eventually the spares business dries up too. Fortunately most washes are imported from Germany.
There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be. That is extremely naive. It takes two (or in this case, 28) to tango. I doubt very much if EEA membership is even on the table as a starting point, but, even if it were, it's quite certain that there's no 'only the nice bits of the EEA' option.
You missed the memo 'Take back control' - indeed it hasn't yet reached Frau Merkel et al!
Its still Boris vs not Boris. I hope that the Tory party finds the choice as impossible and damaging as our Jezza vs not Jezza
Regarding Jexit. It seems that the whips will all resign when the no confidence motion is carried. Perhaps Corbyn needs to draft in Momentum activists to be whips as there won't be anyone left to be a whip nor will the whips be able to successfully whip the PLP
The choice for Labour members is now clear: vote for Corbyn and kill the Labour party; or vote for someone else and have a chance of keeping it alive. This is not about Blairites versus the membership. It is about relevance v irrelevance.
I wonder if it is worth it. Whether a centre/centre-left party, shorn of the baggage of both Labour and the LibDems, is now what is needed. Free of socialism, free of the Trade Union paymasters, free of Blair and tuition fees. Socially liberal, but without overbearing adherence to everything PC.
Fiscally sensible but looking out for the poorest in our society. A true safety net for those in need, without pandering to those who see a life on state hand-outs as a career choice.
Meeting our obligation to international aid - but not embarrassed to say that we have enough on our plate looking after the poorest of our country's 60 million without feeling an obligation to provide for all of the planet's 6 billion.
(These last two paras might sound very Tory, but they are things that REALLY get many Labour voters pissed off.)
Where politicians with experience of life outside the Westminster bubble is hugely valued over careerist SPADS or family name.
These basic tenets should be enough to open a can of whoop-ass over the Tories.
If Boris had lost the referendum 48-52, he'd be favourite for the leadership. The victory has ruined him. Do any of our resident classicists know of a suitable term? @Morris_Dancer
Hannibal. He might win a memorable battle but ultimately loses the war.
I was asking for a classicist, but you'll have to do.
I considered reading Literae Humaniores at Oxford, but then realised I wanted a proper job at the end of it, not non jobs like Editor of the Spectator or Mayor of London
I'm also told there is "growing pressure" on Tom Watson from all wings of the party to stand against Corbyn.
I've just checked the Rule Book. In the event of Corbyn resigning Tom Watson becomes Party Leader Pro Tem. The rule book is clear that an election for a replacement should ordinarily take place at Conference. However, with some doubt as to whether there will be party conferences this year I imagine the NEC will push for an immediate (and accelerated) timetable for a new election.
Corbyn is not going to resign. He does not have either the intelligence or the love of the Labour party to do it.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
Most petrol stations are run as franchises rather than being owned by the oil companies. Some poor bugger's laid out six figures for a mechanical car wash no-one is using any more.
I've always supported a directly elected president of the eu as a step in the right direction, and replacing the endless unelected ones, to addressing the undeniable democratic deficit in the EU. Of course it's unlikely to come to pass anytime soon because member state heads of governments wouldn't like the idea. Thoughts on here from leavers regarding that?
(Please, no one respond with "so you want President Blair"!)
I would strongly have supported that, and as a LEAVER, I would have voted REMAIN in this instance and been very much in favour of staying in the EU.
I'm also told there is "growing pressure" on Tom Watson from all wings of the party to stand against Corbyn.
I've just checked the Rule Book. In the event of Corbyn resigning Tom Watson becomes Party Leader Pro Tem. The rule book is clear that an election for a replacement should ordinarily take place at Conference. However, with some doubt as to whether there will be party conferences this year I imagine the NEC will push for an immediate (and accelerated) timetable for a new election.
Corbyn is not going to resign. He does not have either the intelligence or the love of the Labour party to do it.
Then we will have Prexit - the exit of the Progress faction from the Party.
10.40 Graham Allen, Labour’s MP from Nottingham North is reportedly boycotting today’s no confidence vote... says he will abstain from the vote to avoid legitimising any particular faction. He also voices discontent over a vote that has no procedural standing in the party.
10.31 Labour MPs expect a two-thirds vote of no confidence in Corbyn when the result is announced around 4:30pm. They then expect a mass resignation of whips (a leader's last line of defence) to follow.
I'm also told there is "growing pressure" on Tom Watson from all wings of the party to stand against Corbyn.
Watson is a Grade A bruiser, but leader? Oh no. He's no finesse, no charm and dresses like a cheap Mafia don.
I still think Angela Eagles is the best on offer, there's something so genuine about her - and she's very good in Parly. She's not my cup of tea - but I can see her actually caring, rather than grandstanding/attention seeking.
I think that EEA countries can withdrawal ALL benefits from EU citizens.
Yup, this is the obvious way to square the circle with Leave's immigration promises. In reality it wouldn't make a lot of difference, but immigration (especially net immigration) will most likely be falling anyhow as Britain becomes poorer and more racist.
Indeed - most immigrants come here looking for a job and will worry about health care etc when they have to. But as we become a less attractive country to live in - economically and socially - less will come.
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Why is Osborne on R4 saying we'll have tax rises and spending cuts when he's not going to be CoE in the new HMG set up?
He's stirring.
Some more taxes on the super rich and the likes of Starbucks and Google would not go amiss. The 1% owning more than the other 99% annoys not only left wingers. It's all got very skewed
No idea how to do this in practice, but a new Chancellor could contradict the old one and buy back some Tory support from the middle ground, which will be needed
That statement from Osborne should rule him out of the next Govt. He no longer sets the policy and should not be trying to. The new Chancellor needs to be more positive and avoid a panic budget with further cuts (except in the EU and overseas aid)
Why does anyone need to be positive - surely the very fact of Brexit should have sent the £ and the stock markets soaring. You're the one who is off message.
I never said or expected stock markets or the £ to soar and note that FTSE100 is up on Febuary.
The FTSE 100 is only up on February because the £ has fallen so far and the 75% of revenue FTSE 100 companies get from outside the UK is suddenly worth more. This is basic economics - come on.
250 is currently up close to 3%
Don't confuse the poor boy with facts.
FTSE 250 revenue is just over 50% from outside UK, so again, drop in value of the £ is beneficial in the short term.
Pound up today against the dollar.
Markets have taken a hit, but it's hardly the collapse of western civilisation.
It was never going to be the end of western civilization but as predicted before, we are going to experience a recession or near static growth for a couple of years and will be poorer over the short, medium and long term than we would have been.
I think long term we;ll have the world beating down our door to do business here and of course you're assuming everything will be hunky dory in the EU...
A large part of the 'world beating down our door to do business here' was based on our access to the European market of 500million people. If the EU suddenly goes bad then its going to have a huge impact on us. Better to have stayed in and worked to reform it and grown our marketplace.
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
Most petrol stations are run as franchises rather than being owned by the oil companies. Some poor bugger's laid out six figures for a mechanical car wash no-one is using any more.
Yes, the market can be unpredictable at times. What about those rose-sellers on the central reservation of dual carriageways...
@SamCoatesTimes: I'm told Boris Johnson has made clear to Tory right he WILL end EU free movement after Telegraph column y'day angered ppl.
He's going to get slaughtered by an Economic Reality candidate
Ha, ha - he is a complete joke. And he is going to be our next Prime Minister. God bless the Conservative party membership. Almost as loopy as the Labour one.
I think that EEA countries can withdrawal ALL benefits from EU citizens.
Yup, this is the obvious way to square the circle with Leave's immigration promises. In reality it wouldn't make a lot of difference, but immigration (especially net immigration) will most likely be falling anyhow as Britain becomes poorer and more racist.
Indeed - most immigrants come here looking for a job and will worry about health care etc when they have to. But as we become a less attractive country to live in - economically and socially - less will come.
Osborne cunningly working to torpedo Boris by pretending to support him... you read it here first.
Isnt this meant to be big happy Tory family time ?
That was if Remain won. Since it didn't, there's a bit of sibling squabbling going on, but they'll settle down once the likes of JohnO call them to order.
The worst you can say about May is that she's cold. Maybe her soft Remain is worse than a soft Leave, but there's not too much in that.
Whilst I didn't expect to do so a few months ago, if it is her v Boris (or Fox) I will happily vote for her.
The PB 4 May faction is gathering strength!
IMHO May has more chance of reaching over (or around) to the leavers than Boris has to the remainers.
But. There are IMHO more hardened LEAVErs than hardened REMAINers amongst tory MPs (Step 1) There are 2 LEAVErs for every 1 REMAINer amongst the Tory party members (Step 2).
She needs to convince twice as many as Boris does then - I think she can do that.
Whether it's her fault or not - she's presided over an immigration mess for 6yrs.
Flip flop Boris? Is he modelling himself on Burnham?
@shashj: He had FOUR MONTHS to develop coherent ideas. Instead, he wrote a sleep-deprived “plan” torn up in twenty-four hours https://t.co/4BPanbMH2C
tbf, the government was not a lot better, especially if it is true that proper planning was hampered by fear of FOI requests. Both sides deserved to lose.
Mr. D, the EU may forced to reform now [although I remain sceptical], but if we'd voted to Remain it would have trundled merrily down the road of 'more Europe' and ever closer integration.
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Thanks !
I have Nick Boles at something like 50s. Good operator. Him and Stephen Kinnock I could live with.
I am sure Boris has that earmarked from his £350m. No, sorry, that's for the NHS...
I had an Alumni mailing yesterday. Reading between the lines #1 Noone knows what Brexit means which is a crap way to run a country. #2 There having to re reassure international staff and students who are bewildered by the Xenophobia. #3 There honouring the existing Fee structure till 2018 to reassure folk but after that.....
''There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be.''
No illusions from me. You are entirely correct. If we ditch free movement we can kiss the single market goodbye.
Luckily, it seems countries are forming a line to clinch free trade deals with us. ANZAC, West Africa and most importantly the US.
I am sure the line will get longer.
We could manage free movement.... We can't manage the changes to benefits that are required for us to manage free movement...
I've always supported a directly elected president of the eu as a step in the right direction, and replacing the endless unelected ones, to addressing the undeniable democratic deficit in the EU. Of course it's unlikely to come to pass anytime soon because member state heads of governments wouldn't like the idea. Thoughts on here from leavers regarding that?
(Please, no one respond with "so you want President Blair"!)
I would strongly have supported that, and as a LEAVER, I would have voted REMAIN in this instance and been very much in favour of staying in the EU.
Suppose we did have a President of Europe elected by all the peoples of Europe and that post had real powers. What would be the situation if the president made a decision that the people of, say, Germany could not accept or went against Germany's constitution?
It is a nice idea, but unless there is one demos and essentially the dismantling of the nation states, I think it quite unworkable in practice.
If Cameron had backed Leave, he'd have carried all before him - his Party members, his MPs and most of his voters/plus all those other Leavers. Talk about backing the wrong side. The subject of many future books.
Not all those who voted Leave would have backed Cameron, Ms Plato. I was in two minds, until the very end.
If Cameron and Osborne had been on the Leave side, with their dirty tricks, threats and bullying, I would have found it very easy to go for Remain, who would presumably have had a much more respectful campaign.
I think Cameron wouldn't have resorted to threats and bullying if he'd been truer to his previous campaigning style of offering hope and future pride in Britain. That got him into Number 10 twice.
It was because he'd accepted such a poor deal that he resorted to Project Fear. TBH, I think that's why so many of his previous supporters [like me] were so appalled by it.
''There seems to still be a very strange attitude amongst posters posters here, and also to an extent amongst UK politicians and commentators, that the UK can decide what our relationship with the EU is going to be.''
No illusions from me. You are entirely correct. If we ditch free movement we can kiss the single market goodbye.
Luckily, it seems countries are forming a line to clinch free trade deals with us. ANZAC, West Africa and most importantly the US.
I am sure the line will get longer.
We could manage free movement.... We can't manage the changes to benefits that are required for us to manage free movement...
Textbook example of using the EU to obfuscate the real issue in the UK. Benefits are in dire need of reform.
But we had to leave the EU to crystalise it. Perhaps that's a good thing, I don't think so.
I think that EEA countries can withdrawal ALL benefits from EU citizens.
Yup, this is the obvious way to square the circle with Leave's immigration promises. In reality it wouldn't make a lot of difference, but immigration (especially net immigration) will most likely be falling anyhow as Britain becomes poorer and more racist.
Indeed - most immigrants come here looking for a job and will worry about health care etc when they have to. But as we become a less attractive country to live in - economically and socially - less will come.
SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your first mis-step of the campaign.
"...FEWER will come."
Sheesh.
Sorry - I promise to make less mistakes in future. :-)
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Thanks !
My thread headers on the subject will be impeccably neutral.
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Thanks !
I'm going to a do on Friday which should be a good opportunity to gauge the mood. I think we're probably fairly typical of a classic Shire seat in the SE. I'll report back.
I'm also told there is "growing pressure" on Tom Watson from all wings of the party to stand against Corbyn.
I've just checked the Rule Book. In the event of Corbyn resigning Tom Watson becomes Party Leader Pro Tem. The rule book is clear that an election for a replacement should ordinarily take place at Conference. However, with some doubt as to whether there will be party conferences this year I imagine the NEC will push for an immediate (and accelerated) timetable for a new election.
Corbyn is not going to resign. He does not have either the intelligence or the love of the Labour party to do it.
Then we will have Prexit - the exit of the Progress faction from the Party.
Yep, I imagine that will be the case. And a new official opposition, of course. Then, thanks to FPTP, both parties will be wiped out at the general election.
If Cameron had backed Leave, he'd have carried all before him - his Party members, his MPs and most of his voters/plus all those other Leavers. Talk about backing the wrong side. The subject of many future books.
Not all those who voted Leave would have backed Cameron, Ms Plato. I was in two minds, until the very end.
If Cameron and Osborne had been on the Leave side, with their dirty tricks, threats and bullying, I would have found it very easy to go for Remain, who would presumably have had a much more respectful campaign.
I think Cameron wouldn't have resorted to threats and bullying if he'd been truer to his previous campaigning style of offering hope and future pride in Britain. That got him into Number 10 twice.
It was because he'd accepted such a poor deal that he resorted to Project Fear. TBH, I think that's why so many of his previous supporters [like me] were so appalled by it.
My high point in my respect for Cameron was his last conference speech. I thought he laid out a proper heart-felt One Nation programme to help those in our society most needing help.
Cameron announced the referendum, went to negotiate a deal, and got one (a good one). Perhaps the EU is unreformable but his deal cemented our special status within, or perhaps call it alongside it. Even if you think the deal is useless, do I think that Dave should have done anything differently? Not really. Why should he have played the cute games that the EU might have been playing? He went to negotiate a deal, negotiated a deal and we voted on it. If people say "well you should have played hardball, delayed, threatened, etc" well that is no way to conduct diplomacy. As we now see, compared with what we are about to get, it was not only good, it was great.
If Cameron`s deal was as good as you claim, Mr Topping, why didn`t Cameron and Osborne campaign positively on his supposed triumph?
Could it have been that even they did not thnk it was a world-beater?
If you want a simple example that perfectly encapsulates the reason for Brexit take a look in any town in country and you will see it - The Hand Car Wash. Half a dozen overseas workers earning a pittance, probably on a zero hours contract, working long hours with their in income being topped up with tax credits.
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
I don't remember such carwashes operating before the eastern Europeans came along. Or are you worried they will put Option 4 "Superwash" at Shell out of business?
Most petrol stations are run as franchises rather than being owned by the oil companies. Some poor bugger's laid out six figures for a mechanical car wash no-one is using any more.
Yes, the market can be unpredictable at times. What about those rose-sellers on the central reservation of dual carriageways...
I always thought that Tories favoured consumer interests over those of producers.
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Thanks !
I think you should upgrade your plea to a grovel. Tories like to see grovelling.
I think that EEA countries can withdrawal ALL benefits from EU citizens.
Yup, this is the obvious way to square the circle with Leave's immigration promises. In reality it wouldn't make a lot of difference, but immigration (especially net immigration) will most likely be falling anyhow as Britain becomes poorer and more racist.
Indeed - most immigrants come here looking for a job and will worry about health care etc when they have to. But as we become a less attractive country to live in - economically and socially - less will come.
Right, so if you're running for Tory leader you promise continued market access and unspecified action on immigration. Then you join the EEA and accept free movement but stage and "win" a fight over benefits or something other immigration-related side issue. The economy improves from worse to bad, immigration is still low, job done.
Comments
Immigration, zero hours contracts, rising welfare budgets - all in a mop and a bucket.
If Boris, Gove and Osborne can all work together it will provide sharp contrast to the Blairites, Brownites and Corbynites shredding one another across the House.
@SamCoatesTimes: Boris Telegraph y'day column was "written too quickly" and he's tired. Friends agree sloppy & sent mixed messages & will be vetted in future
He's going to get slaughtered by an Economic Reality candidate
If I was a tory MP that would be my price for support. What are you doing with Michael Gove? I'd like to see him as chancellor, with Leadsom first sec to treasury. Very strong team.
If Boris has sensible and stable people around him, his faults can be forgiven. And faults he certainly has.
But I agree that we won't be able to "cherry pick" and we'll have to accept free movement.
He is an inconsistent flake
We don't need experts. £350m a week.
I have returned! Huzzah!
It's Pyrrhic, naturally, which is a shame as Pyrrhus was a rather capable chap.
There's also an element of the Battle of Najera (which is modern, of course), which the Black Prince won, but the booty from which was exceeded by the cost of mercenary wages.
No illusions from me. You are entirely correct. If we ditch free movement we can kiss the single market goodbye.
Luckily, it seems countries are forming a line to clinch free trade deals with us. ANZAC, West Africa and most importantly the US.
I am sure the line will get longer.
@David_K_Clark: I'm beginning to think Boris won't become PM because too many Tories want to dodge responsibility and get a Remainer to clear up their mess.
That has been the mood since Friday.
"Why won't the Remainers sort my shit?"
I am sure Boris has that earmarked from his £350m. No, sorry, that's for the NHS...
I still think Angela Eagles is the best on offer, there's something so genuine about her - and she's very good in Parly. She's not my cup of tea - but I can see her actually caring, rather than grandstanding/attention seeking.
Jarvis has nothing but a spec of backstory.
Can all the Conservative members here please try their best to stay objective when it comes to betting related posts on the Tory leadership battle, and avoid just ramping their preferred candidate
Thanks !
A large part of the 'world beating down our door to do business here' was based on our access to the European market of 500million people. If the EU suddenly goes bad then its going to have a huge impact on us. Better to have stayed in and worked to reform it and grown our marketplace.
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/747743041839050752
Your first mis-step of the campaign.
"...FEWER will come."
Sheesh.
Yes, David, I know...
We know May isn't in favour of LEAVE but is Boris actually in favour of LEAVE?
Which potential Conservative leader has been consistently in favour of LEAVE - Liam Fox?
May "campaigns" (i.e. lets it be known she is in the same column) with Remain. Makes no show for Remain in the campaign though.
The voters, deeply unhappy with immigration, vote to remedy this by voting Leave to eject us from the EU.
The Prime Minister resigns - and May is rewarded by getting the top job herself.
Anybody else think these is something not quite right about this?
Friday: bloody hell they've voted out
Monday: bloody hell there's no plan
Tuesday: The new normal
If Konta could win it, that would prove most helpful for a SPOTY bet.
It is a nice idea, but unless there is one demos and essentially the dismantling of the nation states, I think it quite unworkable in practice.
It was because he'd accepted such a poor deal that he resorted to Project Fear. TBH, I think that's why so many of his previous supporters [like me] were so appalled by it.
But we had to leave the EU to crystalise it. Perhaps that's a good thing, I don't think so.
Below the line, I want Boris to win.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36647948
Conservative leader: they could do with a man like Aurelian, albeit someone who hasn't been dead for the best part of two thousand years.
And now he can't implement that programme. Folly.
Could it have been that even they did not thnk it was a world-beater?
She's dreadful.