politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU referendum: An attempt to analyse the in-play bettin

TheKrakenAwakes said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

So we risk getting a completely unknown, untested and unelected novice in place to make decisions that will have existential consequences for our nation.

It's no way to run a country.

No, but the other way hasn't exactly worked either.

And Boris' problem is that we all know what he's capable of - showmanship and vacuity. He's Gordon with a sense of humour and a silly haircut. Better anyone than him.

Alistair Campbell had it right yesterday when he said that when you see Cameron on the world stage you feel a bit of pride that he's the PM ...could you say the same about Boris?

Gut-wrenching fear and embarrassment would be more like it! Much the same as I used to have about the egregious Alistair, indeed.

Would be a great party chairman, but he's not a PM.

We really are desperately poor.

anotherDave said:

JohnO said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.

In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

How many of the outright Leave candidates might be vulnerable to a Bregetter swing in their own constituencies? None of them are not tainted by the lies of the campaign.

Key point to remember is that Boris is a weak candidate. He's divisive, incompetent (eight years of running London rather ineptly) dishonest and also has been pretty unpleasant all the way through the campaign. Looking at the way the votes fell there is clearly an argument to be made that Leave won despite him not because of him.

A low-key remainer loudly accepting the result might find it easier to reunite the party and the country and is less likely to make a dog's dinner of exit negotiations or anything else. Moreover with Labour in such desperate straits there is no political need for a showman or a safe candidate. A punt may be taken

My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

Straw in the wind but most of the prominent Tory Leave MPs were greeted with silent, cold and sullen hostility by their colleagues when putting questions to Cameron in the Commons this afternoon.

I think you mean reverential awe. They sound alike.

In your dreams, my friend....normally when a Tory backbencher rises, they are greeted with vocal Hear, Hears. Not today for the bastards.

Rooney is shit.

Bye bye Roy. Don't let the door hit you on the arse on your way out.

I would have thought Rashford was worth a place as a sub in the last 20 mins of any of the E England games.

England played some good football against Germany, but have looked poor since.

dr_spyn said:

I would have thought Rashford was worth a place as a sub in the last 20 mins of any of the E England games.

England played some good football against Germany, but have looked poor since.

Rashford was very good when.he came on...direct and dangerous.

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.

In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.

I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.

Seems a fair bet for the final two if she stands. She is certainly a plausible candidate and if the Leavers coalesce around one candidate she might be a way of saving their blushes.

I just can't see her beating Theresa May or any other ranking Cabinet minister.

I think the winner has to a Leave MP. If the membership couldn't stomach Ken Clarke over IDS, they've surely got to back the Leave candidate.

But they didn't like Clarke. He had spent years telling them they were stupid.

Yes May has a reputation for telling home truths, but not every minute of every hour of every day.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SeanT said:

Lowlander said:

tlg86 said:

Lowlander said:

tlg86 said:

Lowlander said:

A genuine question.

Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.

I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.

And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.

Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.

I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

It is a statistical anomaly.

Part of the problem with UK football is that the premier league is stuffed with foreign players because EU rules mean free movement for them so its easier for the clubs to import players than bring on good youths which in turn means the national side suffers.

Cricket faced a similar problem and solved it by banning first class teams from having more than one overseas player per team which worked because few overseas cricket players had EU passports.

So leaving the EU may do wonders for the national side in a few years.

That argument would hold more water if it wasn't for the fact that all the other (EU) national teams seem to do better than us.

It's 3am Friday morning and everything suggests the wrong result is inevitable...

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.

In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.

I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.

Seems a fair bet for the final two if she stands. She is certainly a plausible candidate and if the Leavers coalesce around one candidate she might be a way of saving their blushes.

I just can't see her beating Theresa May or any other ranking Cabinet minister.

I think the winner has to a Leave MP. If the membership couldn't stomach Ken Clarke over IDS, they've surely got to back the Leave candidate.

But they didn't like Clarke. He had spent years telling them they were stupid.

Yes May has a reputation for telling home truths, but not every minute of every hour of every day.

As I recall Mr Clarke was considered a popular MP at the time.

We'll find out soon enough, but I'm assuming that being a Remain supporter will be considered a black mark.

EDIT
Ms May is popular in the ConHome poll.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/06/theresa-may-storms-to-a-12-point-lead-over-boris-in-our-future-leader-poll.html

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

I am not one of those Scots who are anti English. But this is really quite funny.

Is it cos of the commantary? Cos thats where the beauty lies on nights like this.

What's wrong with the commentary? Like they're watching a different match presumably?

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

anotherDave said:

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.

In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.

I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.

Seems a fair bet for the final two if she stands. She is certainly a plausible candidate and if the Leavers coalesce around one candidate she might be a way of saving their blushes.

I just can't see her beating Theresa May or any other ranking Cabinet minister.

I think the winner has to a Leave MP. If the membership couldn't stomach Ken Clarke over IDS, they've surely got to back the Leave candidate.

But they didn't like Clarke. He had spent years telling them they were stupid.

Yes May has a reputation for telling home truths, but not every minute of every hour of every day.

As I recall Mr Clarke was considered a popular MP at the time.

We'll find out soon enough, but I'm assuming that being a Remain supporter will be considered a black mark.

Yes he was, with the public. Not the membership. Kind of a reverse Jez effect.

Looks like Roy Hodgson is triggering football's equivalent of article 50 tonight.

Freggles said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=15joCwPYYk8

I bet he doesn't hate them today

sealo0 said:

Engxit?

Roxit

Boris coming on for Iceland to give us another kicking.

Stark_Dawning said:

Lowlander said:

DavidL said:

I am not one of those Scots who are anti English. But this is really quite funny.

Is it cos of the commantary? Cos thats where the beauty lies on nights like this.

What's wrong with the commentary? Like they're watching a different match presumably?

For example, he just said "Im sure the rest of Europe wont be remembering this game, its not exactly been full of quality".

I think the rest of Europe will be watching this game and laughing and remember it for a long time.

You can see why Liverpool fans rate Roy Hodgson as the worst manager in the club's history.

When we lost on penalties at home to Northampton Town he called it a great performance

I can see Roy at the lectern tomorrow morning.

It's funny. Every England game ends up the same. Just pushing the ball around aimlessly. Ho hum. I'm returning to my newspaper blackout/pb exile (temporary)/social media quarantine.

Time to rewatch the Game of Thrones finale .

Okay, that was out of order from Tyldesley. Iceland are more than decent.

Looks like four fwustwating games in a row for Roy.

There won't be a fifth.

FrancisUrquhart said:

What headline the sun going for? We had turnip head and the wally with the brolly...

Iceland 2 - Poundland 1

Ha, had time to edit it.

Lowlander said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What headline the sun going for? We had turnip head and the wally with the brolly...

Iceland 2 - Shoprite 1

Poundland, surely! Or possibly Sports Direct.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What headline the sun going for? We had turnip head and the wally with the brolly...

Wankers

Rankers Woy rould say.

Lowlander said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What headline the sun going for? We had turnip head and the wally with the brolly...

Iceland 2 - poundland 1

From the great times letter recently

Can we reboot 2016?

This will be on the front page of every European newspaper tomorrow, and a few in the US too. It's just so perfect this week above all others.

OldKingCole said:

Lowlander said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What headline the sun going for? We had turnip head and the wally with the brolly...

Iceland 2 - Shoprite 1

Poundland, surely! Or possibly Sports Direct.

YEah Poundland, much better. Love that one. I couldnt think of anywhere worse than Shoprite.

Why the future f##k hasn't he sent rashford on yet?

Jonathan said:

Can we reboot 2016?

Just awful. I keep thinking it will all be a bad dream.

TheKrakenAwakes said:

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

So we risk getting a completely unknown, untested and unelected novice in place to make decisions that will have existential consequences for our nation.

It's no way to run a country.

No, but the other way hasn't exactly worked either.

And Boris' problem is that we all know what he's capable of - showmanship and vacuity. He's Gordon with a sense of humour and a silly haircut. Better anyone than him.

Alistair Campbell had it right yesterday when he said that when you see Cameron on the world stage you feel a bit of pride that he's the PM ...could you say the same about Boris?

There's no doubt he's been to the Prime ministerial finishing school.

ydoethur said:

And Boris' problem is that we all know what he's capable of - showmanship and vacuity. He's Gordon with a sense of humour and a silly haircut. Better anyone than him.

I'm trying to see things from the PoV of a Remainer MP. (Bear in mind that some of these folk were not strong Remainers but were "persuaded" by government, by whatever means, to back the cause. But we can at least assume they range from moderately eurosceptic to eurolukewarm to the odd europhile.)

Is there any reason at all for them to opt for Boris when he has done so much damage to their party and, as they would see it, to the country/economy, and carries the obvious risks? I can think of three.

Firstly Boris is not a headbanging eurosceptic, if he can be described as a eurosceptic at all. His rough vision of Britain's future place in Europe is not far removed from what many Remain MPs would like to aim for given the current situation.

Secondly, there are bad optics if the leader comes from a pro-Remain background and carries out a "backdoor remain". Essentially, a leaver has a "right to compromise on behalf of the 48%" that a remainer does not. (Electorally the Tories can afford to lose many of the 48% without great bloodbath - many of them are generally non-voters, and those in Labour heartlands are essentially irrelevant to Tory strategy. Moreover many of those 48% were people who weighed up the decision and only opted for it narrowly, so a compromise would only cost a certain portion of them. But it is still healthier for that fraction to minimised.)

Thirdly, they may support Boris - not least for self-preservation instincts - if they see he has electoral appeal. For instance, he won twice in the difficult territory of London. He was deemed to have performed well in the Leave campaign and although he can't personally claim 17 million people voted for him, it seems likely that fewer nationwide would have have backed Brexit without him.

Weighed against the first of these reasons is that Boris is not a "details guy" so his capacity to extract a European position of his desire is in question. (In contrast to Brown though, he is good at delegating.) Weighed against the second, is that for a Leaver to backtrack may be seen as a betrayal. Weighed against the third, Boris would likely cause deep divisions in the Tory party (damaging electoral appeal and making retaining your seat harder). It seems likely his appointment would add momentum to the Scottish independence drive. He also carries a very serious risk of implosion, from all manner of sources: personal life, a bumbling approach to clarity (or indeed, truth), not someone who gives an impression of a "safe pair of hands " when crisis management skills are paramount...

Overall I can see he will have some grounds for support among MPs. But I'm not convinced he should be such a heavy betting favourite.

Rooney was at least trying.

I bottled it at £22.57 for my £3.08 bet.

They took Rooney off.

DavidL said:

Rooney was at least trying.

He was very trying on the eye.

Well that free kick just summed it up!

Spurs fan, does Harry Kane take your free kicks ?

MyBurningEars - quite right about how a Brexiter is essential as next Leader. But how another Brexiter than Boris is better value.

Christ.

Come on Wales.

Diminished. We are diminished.

And that was the last sliver of a chance.

Having cashed out it would be nice to see England go through so I can bet against them vs France.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spurs fan, does Harry Kane take your free kicks ?

Of course not.

Can't wait to hear the Icelandic commentator.

SeanT said:

Have we even had a shot on goal in the second half?

Did you have one in the first half, I don't think so.

Although in the second half there were a couple of soft headers into the goalies arms that probably counted as shots at goal.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spurs fan, does Harry Kane take your free kicks ?

Of course not.

Thought not