Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
Sturgeon seems to be several strides ahead of any other leader. The defining politician of her generation.
Yes.
I think she'll win Indy2 as well. People raising this and that difficulty are missing the fact that there will be a far weaker No campaign than last time.
Indeed, a good chance. I suspect Labour in Scotland and quite possibly the Liberals will be persuadable to vote Yes for Independence with the Euro as currency. The pound is unlikely to be as attractive by then. The other thing is it's Sturgeon, not Salmond. Sturgeon has twice the charisma and double the nous.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
Sturgeon seems to be several strides ahead of any other leader. The defining politician of her generation.
Yes.
I think she'll win Indy2 as well. People raising this and that difficulty are missing the fact that there will be a far weaker No campaign than last time.
Events in Scotland as ever are going to be fascinating. I think Sturgeon will need to move very quickly towards a 2nd referendum. If she doesn't then the very real risk of a domino effect of countries departing the EU will render the reason for a 2nd referendum null and void. But there are very real risks from an immediate referendum as soon as can be arranged (October?):
1) What happens to the border between England and Scotland? 2) Will Spain choose to veto any attempt by Scotland to 'rejoin' the EU?
The key to it will be voters in Edinburgh and East Renfrewshire - areas that voted over 60% against in the 1st SINDY yet voted 74% to remain last week. For the 45'ers the appeal of independence was an emotional heart strings appeal, not an economic one. For those remain voters converted to the cause, I think economic matters are more pressing. If they see renewed economic troubles in the Eurozone like I think will happen (August is shaping up to be a turbulent month in the financial markets) then will all those potential new independence recruits stay on board.
And then there is a subset of the Scottish electorate that is sick and tired of elections - a general election, a Scottish election, the 1st independence referendum and last week - have they got the stomach for a 5th major election in the space of little more than 2 years?
I wouldn't believe any UK poll right now. They have been hilariously wrong on two massive occasions in the last year now. I would love May to be our next PM though - she's by far the best option out of an underwhelming bunch. Boris and Osborne shouldn't be anywhere near the Conservative leadership.
.
I admit Ma
Backed remain, but kept her head down (some might say tactically) and is widely considered eurosceptic. A fair compromise for the membership, I'd have thought.
I definitely think May's absence for much of the campaign was tactical. I think the trouble for Leavers, is that none of their leading lights look like good leadership prospects for the country. Boris would be a total disaster as PM, for example. And I hardly think the country is crying out for Grayling, IDS, or Gove either.
I admit May seems like the best choice given where the country is at the moment. No matter what you think of her otherwise, she does give off an air of unflappability and seriousness which is exactly what we need at the moment. A steady hand on the tiller.
Backed remain, but kept her head down (some might say tactically) and is widely considered eurosceptic. A fair compromise for the membership, I'd have thought.
I definitely think May's absence for much of the campaign was tactical. I think the trouble for Leavers, is that none of their leading lights look like good leadership prospects for the country. Boris would be a total disaster as PM, for example. And I hardly think the country is crying out for Grayling, IDS, or Gove either.
Of the realistic choices available I would personally go for Andrea Leadsom. Boris' buffoonery is all well and good in calm normal times, but right now I think he isn't the right man for the times ahead. Theresa May's illiberal measures trampling on civil liberties rule her out as far as I'm concerned. But whoever takes charge, I think its a poisoned chalice.
Thank you Michael for this fascinating article. I think most of us PBers made a fair bit of money on referendum night. This kind of information and analysis is exactly what we need to learn how to do it again.
One feature of the first period, ending at say 2am, is certainly the slow reaction of many punters once results started indicating a probable Leave win.
What I find especially interesting is the hour that followed, when Remain made a comeback in the betting market. This is an extremely important period, because the price of Leave dropped and this is when it was possible to make most money. (Myself, I had my finger on the button but I was already heavily invested in Leave, at a combined price of somewhere between 2.5 and 3, so I simply sat events out.)
I don't wholly agree with your suggested explanation that this comeback was due to a high sensitivity to individual results, animal spirits and confusion. What individual results? One or two cities maybe? I would offer the alternative explanation that this was mug money getting staked by people who had either already invested in the favourite, Remain, thinking it was an easy way to make money, or who hadn't previously got involved at all, but who thought the rise in the price of Leave was owing to other people's ignorance - the ignorance of those of us who by that time were quite sure that were Leave would win. They thought we were over-reactive and perhaps fickle! So they thought they would pile into Remain at a good price. They were the slow reactors who thought we (other punters) had been over-sensitive. That's my guess anyway.
(Personally I was always fairly sure that Leave would win - the Sun hasn't backed the losing side in any British GE or referendum since 1974, and when they involved the queen on the Wednesday,... - but I digress.)
It is really remarkable that such a large amount of money was staked on Remain at that time, between 2 and 3am. Note that the fall in the price of Leave came after a very rapid rise. Also consider Chris Hanretty's reported probabilities of a Remain win:
1.46 am (15/382 areas having reported), 0.32; 2.08 am (33 areas), 0.03; 3.00 am (81 areas), 0.
All sensible PBers knew by shortly after 2am that it was all over for Remain, I reckon. Ditto other intelligent observers. The money that caused the crossbackover was mug money, and quite a lot of it was being put on at that time.
Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
Sturgeon seems to be several strides ahead of any other leader. The defining politician of her generation.
Yes.
I think she'll win Indy2 as well. People raising this and that difficulty are missing the fact that there will be a far weaker No campaign than last time.
Indeed, a good chance. I suspect Labour in Scotland and quite possibly the Liberals will be persuadable to vote Yes for Independence with the Euro as currency. The pound is unlikely to be as attractive by then. The other thing is it's Sturgeon, not Salmond. Sturgeon has twice the charisma and double the nous.
I don't think she has any charisma whatsoever, but if nous is what Macchiavelli had, then maybe. She gets right up many people's tits. I think she's horrible and I would prefer a Lab-LibDem-Con coalition to the SNP governing without or without Green support.
Perhaps she will convince some people by saying the euro is nice and attractive and the pound isn't so lovely. Most of the population probably think Scotland's already got its own money. But will she get round the fact that Scotland does 10% of its trade with elsewhere in the EU and 65% with the rest of Britain? A single currency with rUK makes far more sense, and we get the same arguments as before, i.e. they'd be using the country next door's currency without any say.
Cameron should have changed the name of the Bank of England to the Bank of Britain immediately following the indyref, but his government didn't have a fucking clue how to build friendship between England and Scotland, rather than simply a feeling of "better and safer together". That would have been too long-termist for them. It didn't even try.
Comments
1) What happens to the border between England and Scotland?
2) Will Spain choose to veto any attempt by Scotland to 'rejoin' the EU?
The key to it will be voters in Edinburgh and East Renfrewshire - areas that voted over 60% against in the 1st SINDY yet voted 74% to remain last week. For the 45'ers the appeal of independence was an emotional heart strings appeal, not an economic one. For those remain voters converted to the cause, I think economic matters are more pressing. If they see renewed economic troubles in the Eurozone like I think will happen (August is shaping up to be a turbulent month in the financial markets) then will all those potential new independence recruits stay on board.
And then there is a subset of the Scottish electorate that is sick and tired of elections - a general election, a Scottish election, the 1st independence referendum and last week - have they got the stomach for a 5th major election in the space of little more than 2 years?
One feature of the first period, ending at say 2am, is certainly the slow reaction of many punters once results started indicating a probable Leave win.
What I find especially interesting is the hour that followed, when Remain made a comeback in the betting market. This is an extremely important period, because the price of Leave dropped and this is when it was possible to make most money. (Myself, I had my finger on the button but I was already heavily invested in Leave, at a combined price of somewhere between 2.5 and 3, so I simply sat events out.)
I don't wholly agree with your suggested explanation that this comeback was due to a high sensitivity to individual results, animal spirits and confusion. What individual results? One or two cities maybe? I would offer the alternative explanation that this was mug money getting staked by people who had either already invested in the favourite, Remain, thinking it was an easy way to make money, or who hadn't previously got involved at all, but who thought the rise in the price of Leave was owing to other people's ignorance - the ignorance of those of us who by that time were quite sure that were Leave would win. They thought we were over-reactive and perhaps fickle! So they thought they would pile into Remain at a good price. They were the slow reactors who thought we (other punters) had been over-sensitive. That's my guess anyway.
(Personally I was always fairly sure that Leave would win - the Sun hasn't backed the losing side in any British GE or referendum since 1974, and when they involved the queen on the Wednesday,... - but I digress.)
Thanks again for your analysis.
It is really remarkable that such a large amount of money was staked on Remain at that time, between 2 and 3am. Note that the fall in the price of Leave came after a very rapid rise. Also consider Chris Hanretty's reported probabilities of a Remain win:
1.46 am (15/382 areas having reported), 0.32;
2.08 am (33 areas), 0.03;
3.00 am (81 areas), 0.
All sensible PBers knew by shortly after 2am that it was all over for Remain, I reckon. Ditto other intelligent observers. The money that caused the crossbackover was mug money, and quite a lot of it was being put on at that time.
Perhaps she will convince some people by saying the euro is nice and attractive and the pound isn't so lovely. Most of the population probably think Scotland's already got its own money. But will she get round the fact that Scotland does 10% of its trade with elsewhere in the EU and 65% with the rest of Britain? A single currency with rUK makes far more sense, and we get the same arguments as before, i.e. they'd be using the country next door's currency without any say.
Cameron should have changed the name of the Bank of England to the Bank of Britain immediately following the indyref, but his government didn't have a fucking clue how to build friendship between England and Scotland, rather than simply a feeling of "better and safer together". That would have been too long-termist for them. It didn't even try.