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SystemSystem Posts: 12,838
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EU referendum: An attempt to analyse the in-play betting

At 11:36pm on June 23rd, just before the first result was declared, the market was just short of 90% confident of a Remain vote. So much for markets knowing best – the market was wrong, and staggeringly confident in its wrongness.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,010
    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,636
    The most profitable betting evening of my life (so far). SpreadEx has sent me a cheque, and tomorrow I shall bank it :)
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    https://twitter.com/A_LordDarling/status/747516542376681472
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    This reminds me that someone on here, I'm pretty sure it was Tissue_Price, remarked early on (just after Sunderland, I think) that the greatest value might come when Leave was 2.5 in the betting but 1.3 in reality. So it proved and keeping that advice in mind made me an extra 3k on top of what I had, so many thanks. Really shrewd comment.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    As in, that's the Remain ticket?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,839
    MikeL said:

    Crabb now in to 3rd fav.

    Fox drifting - starting to look like 4 horse race:

    Boris and May; with Crabb and Leadsom as outsiders.

    Leadsom was distinctly unimpressive in the Wembly debate, workmanlike but robotic and outshone by Stuart and Johnson. Unless Crabb reveals some very interesting ideas and surprising charisma he's coming from nowhere to challenge the big hitters. I'm not sure May truly wants it enough to beat Boris.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    England ha ha haha haha haha haha

    Putting the shite, into football since 1966.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,217
    I was backing Leave heavily after Sunderland.

    So profitable.

    Thank you for this Michael
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,498
    FPT:
    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Crabb now in to 3rd fav.

    Fox drifting - starting to look like 4 horse race:

    Boris and May; with Crabb and Leadsom as outsiders.

    Leadsom was distinctly unimpressive in the Wembly debate, workmanlike but robotic and outshone by Stuart and Johnson. Unless Crabb reveals some very interesting ideas and surprising charisma he's coming from nowhere to challenge the big hitters. I'm not sure May truly wants it enough to beat Boris.
    Doesn't Crabb have the backing of Cameron? That's the feeling I get.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited June 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,839
    I hadn't realised so much was staked on that final day. £63m, wow!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    edited June 2016
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Looking forward to waking from this nightmare to see how the Brexit vote has gone. It is all a dream isn't it...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Anyone seriously think Corbyn can win against Crabb and Javid? The optics alone!!!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,010
    Freggles said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    As in, that's the Remain ticket?
    Well, its one of them. Would expect May to stand, but might not fancy it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    Because Tories always back the favourite? :trollface:

    But yeah it is hard to see, in a short campaign, on the back of Boris' EUref victory, how new faces get in the final 2.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited June 2016
    I presume Vardy is coming on cos my Cash Out just went down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Talking of upsets the world 777 has beaten 54 in first round of Wimbledon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,839
    CornishBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Crabb now in to 3rd fav.

    Fox drifting - starting to look like 4 horse race:

    Boris and May; with Crabb and Leadsom as outsiders.

    Leadsom was distinctly unimpressive in the Wembly debate, workmanlike but robotic and outshone by Stuart and Johnson. Unless Crabb reveals some very interesting ideas and surprising charisma he's coming from nowhere to challenge the big hitters. I'm not sure May truly wants it enough to beat Boris.
    Doesn't Crabb have the backing of Cameron? That's the feeling I get.
    He needs more than that to beat Boris, what else does he have going for him? We'll see I guess. May's still the best bet to avoid a Boris win I think.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,199
    At least Javid has a background in economics.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited June 2016
    Jack Wilshire on....Dier off.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Wilshere????????? Feck me
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Looking forward to waking from this nightmare to see how the Brexit vote has gone. It is all a dream isn't it...

    Can this week get any more embarrassing?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,217
    Someone sedate Scrapheap

    Wilshire on for Dier
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    This has not been a great few days.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Dire off, Wheelchair on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,839
    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    At least Spain's team used to do similarly poorly in international competition compared to their league and support. Now we don't even have that comfort.

    Is 1996 the best we've done in a long long time? Christ, I was still at primary school when that happened!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    SeanT said:


    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.

    Perhaps the way the English media deal with them might be counter-productive?

    It must be quite hard to really give it all in training with all the press saying you're about to walk your next game and win the tournament.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Lowlander said:

    I presume Vardy has come on cos my Cash Out just went down.

    Hodgson plays him out of position, and Rooney dislikes him as an upstart. When you are too chavvy for Rooney...

    What is the possible question that Wilshire is the answer to?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Why would the England commentary be embarrassing? Has anyone heard the Iceland commentary when they scored?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Why not lalana? Wilshire looks about as match fit as Eric pickles.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Is WIlshire replacing Dier at full back? BEcause they are playing a very fast counter-attacking team.

    That's not the best call.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,839
    Lowlander said:

    SeanT said:


    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.

    Perhaps the way the English media deal with them might be counter-productive?

    It must be quite hard to really give it all in training with all the press saying you're about to walk your next game and win the tournament.
    Do the press say that? I feel like this supposed arrogance of the English press and team totally slip by me every time.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    We lose this,we might has well give football up.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    By the looks of it, England will truly be out of Europe by tomorrow! :(
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    The most profitable betting evening of my life (so far). SpreadEx has sent me a cheque, and tomorrow I shall bank it :)

    Wanderer said:

    This reminds me that someone on here, I'm pretty sure it was Tissue_Price, remarked early on (just after Sunderland, I think) that the greatest value might come when Leave was 2.5 in the betting but 1.3 in reality. So it proved and keeping that advice in mind made me an extra 3k on top of what I had, so many thanks. Really shrewd comment.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I was backing Leave heavily after Sunderland.

    So profitable.

    Thank you for this Michael

    Dicks on tables...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited June 2016
    Tykejohnno said:

    We lose this,we might has well give football up.

    Well jermaine pennant thinks after brexit we can't play in the euros anyway.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    This is a embarrassment.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Tykejohnno said:

    We lose this,we might has well give football up.

    Boris will be saying we should try Aussie rules instead next
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    midwinter said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Looking forward to waking from this nightmare to see how the Brexit vote has gone. It is all a dream isn't it...

    Can this week get any more embarrassing?
    Yes... fecking wilshere is on....
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Tykejohnno said:

    We lose this,we might has well give football up.

    It would be comparable to when Greece lost to the Faroe Islands.

    What happened to Greece's economy after that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xIlOJBPa1Q
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    They're far too comfortable, earning massive sums for mediocre performances. They're very much like British tennis they don't have to do well to have a decent income, they are insulated by the money sloshing through the system.

    When they come across players who actually need to do well, they're embarrassed.
  • TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    Apparently 7,000 new Lib Dem members since Friday - running at one a minute. Including Clare Gerada former Chair of Royal College of GPs, who's left Labour
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Why does Hodgson have Kane taking free kicks from out wide? It makes absolutely no sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,395
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

    Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    SouthamObserver said:

    Why does Hodgson have Kane taking free kicks from out wide? It makes absolutely no sense.

    You have to deduce that all the other multimillionaire footballers are so crap at taking that Kane is our only option.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Tykejohnno said:

    This is a embarrassment.

    Not really. Unless you've been watching the build up to the game and listening to the commentary.

    Iceland have a rock solid defence with an extremely good, fast counter-attacking (and goalscoring) attack. They won their Qualifying Group and were very close to winning their First Round Group.

    They are a very good, well managed side with just enough talent to make an exceptionally good system work. In other words, they are Leicester City.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    When did we start diving?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    Surely this would rank as the worst defeat in terms of rankings divide in the history of the Euros?

    If this was cricket the bookies wouldn't be paying out, citing a betting fix...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,664
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.
    How many of the outright Leave candidates might be vulnerable to a Bregetter swing in their own constituencies? None of them are not tainted by the lies of the campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    TheKrakenAwakes said:

    Apparently 7,000 new Lib Dem members since Friday - running at one a minute. Including Clare Gerada former Chair of Royal College of GPs, who's left Labour

    :+1:
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    AndyJS said:

    "Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770

    "Gibraltar is Scottish"
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I look at the English players,no confidence,no passion.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    Hodgson's problem boils down to having no idea who his best term are.

    Or whether they are even in France.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    To be fair at least there is a comforting familiarity to England being poor at football
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    Iceland bicycle kick in the box? Now they are just taking the piss...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Iceland are still 2.4 on Betfair to win the match.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    SeanT said:

    They're actually BETTER than us

    Like I said, they are Leicester City.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hodgson's problem boils down to having no idea who his best term are.

    Or whether they are even in France.

    And trying to ram square pegs in round holes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    MarqueeMark said:

    Iceland bicycle kick in the box? Now they are just taking the piss...

    Bloody foreign snowboaters....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,217
    And another one

    BREAKING: Fitch downgrades U.K. credit rating to 'AA' from 'AA+' on Brexit vote
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

    Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.
    I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

    I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Wanderer said:

    This reminds me that someone on here, I'm pretty sure it was Tissue_Price, remarked early on (just after Sunderland, I think) that the greatest value might come when Leave was 2.5 in the betting but 1.3 in reality. So it proved and keeping that advice in mind made me an extra 3k on top of what I had, so many thanks. Really shrewd comment.

    It was me, but it was before the polls closed:
    Tissue_Price said:

    DanSmith said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    8.4 may be value on Leave [feels big to me but others may have more info], but there'll almost certainly be greater value later if they're actually in with a shot.

    Peak value must be now, if they do have a shot word will soon spread from the counts.
    If Leave win Sunderland handily you might be able to get 2.5 about a 1.3 shot.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    This is making Brazil WC performances look good.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    And another one

    BREAKING: Fitch downgrades U.K. credit rating to 'AA' from 'AA+' on Brexit vote

    Oh the humanity!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Ugh, Vardy.

    Cash out or stick?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,908
    Lowlander said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770

    "Gibraltar is Scottish"
    lol!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,395
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.
    How many of the outright Leave candidates might be vulnerable to a Bregetter swing in their own constituencies? None of them are not tainted by the lies of the campaign.
    Key point to remember is that Boris is a weak candidate. He's divisive, incompetent (eight years of running London rather ineptly) dishonest and also has been pretty unpleasant all the way through the campaign. Looking at the way the votes fell there is clearly an argument to be made that Leave won despite him not because of him.

    A low-key remainer loudly accepting the result might find it easier to reunite the party and the country and is less likely to make a dog's dinner of exit negotiations or anything else. Moreover with Labour in such desperate straits there is no political need for a showman or a safe candidate. A punt may be taken

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,203
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Talking of upsets the world 777 has beaten 54 in first round of Wimbledon.

    And the winner was British. Probably even English.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Fitch downgrades UK...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,664
    Le Monde speculating that Brexit might not happen.

    http://www.lemonde.fr/referendum-sur-le-brexit/article/2016/06/27/royaume-uni-le-brexit-peut-il-ne-pas-se-produire_4959221_4872498.html
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Iceland bicycle kick in the box? Now they are just taking the piss...

    Bloody foreign snowboaters....
    Auto correct of the day
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    Part of the problem with UK football is that the premier league is stuffed with foreign players because EU rules mean free movement for them so its easier for the clubs to import players than bring on good youths which in turn means the national side suffers.

    Cricket faced a similar problem and solved it by banning first class teams from having more than one overseas player per team which worked because few overseas cricket players had EU passports.

    So leaving the EU may do wonders for the national side in a few years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    saddened said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Iceland bicycle kick in the box? Now they are just taking the piss...

    Bloody foreign snowboaters....
    Auto correct of the day
    I would love to say it wasn't...but it was bloody SwiftKey!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,395
    anotherDave said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

    Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.
    I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

    I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.
    Seems a fair bet for the final two if she stands. She is certainly a plausible candidate and if the Leavers coalesce around one candidate she might be a way of saving their blushes.

    I just can't see her beating Theresa May or any other ranking Cabinet minister.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,664
    ydoethur said:

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

    So we risk getting a completely unknown, untested and unelected novice in place to make decisions that will have existential consequences for our nation.

    It's no way to run a country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,465
    I feel for Vardy playing in such a crap team vs his usual one.

    It's like watching Arsenal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,498
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    Part of the problem with UK football is that the premier league is stuffed with foreign players because EU rules mean free movement for them so its easier for the clubs to import players than bring on good youths which in turn means the national side suffers.

    Cricket faced a similar problem and solved it by banning first class teams from having more than one overseas player per team which worked because few overseas cricket players had EU passports.

    So leaving the EU may do wonders for the national side in a few years.
    While I will be more than happy to see the end of PL clubs stockpiling foreign youngsters, I'm not sure it will make a jot of difference to the England team.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    I don't know if other people saw this the other night, but the Iceland white strip is identical to the kit from Escape To Victory. You've got to love them for that alone....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,908
    Iceland still above evens for the match on Betfair
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    TheKrakenAwakes said:

    Apparently 7,000 new Lib Dem members since Friday - running at one a minute. Including Clare Gerada former Chair of Royal College of GPs, who's left Labour

    They will soon run out of phoneboxes to meet in
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,395
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

    So we risk getting a completely unknown, untested and unelected novice in place to make decisions that will have existential consequences for our nation.

    It's no way to run a country.
    No, but the other way hasn't exactly worked either.

    And Boris' problem is that we all know what he's capable of - showmanship and vacuity. He's Gordon with a sense of humour and a silly haircut. Better anyone than him.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    This is making Brazil WC performances look good.

    If the fans were witty enough, "It's like watching Brazil!" would be getting sung out there.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,465
    "England have twin priorities."

    Winning and, um, winning surely?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,319
    edited June 2016
    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.
    How many of the outright Leave candidates might be vulnerable to a Bregetter swing in their own constituencies? None of them are not tainted by the lies of the campaign.
    Key point to remember is that Boris is a weak candidate. He's divisive, incompetent (eight years of running London rather ineptly) dishonest and also has been pretty unpleasant all the way through the campaign. Looking at the way the votes fell there is clearly an argument to be made that Leave won despite him not because of him.

    A low-key remainer loudly accepting the result might find it easier to reunite the party and the country and is less likely to make a dog's dinner of exit negotiations or anything else. Moreover with Labour in such desperate straits there is no political need for a showman or a safe candidate. A punt may be taken

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.
    Straw in the wind but most of the prominent Tory Leave MPs were greeted with silent, cold and sullen hostility by their colleagues when putting questions to Cameron in the Commons this afternoon.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Kane has been absolutely awful, yet again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,636
    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    When we leave the EU, our football will improve automagically.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.
    How many of the outright Leave candidates might be vulnerable to a Bregetter swing in their own constituencies? None of them are not tainted by the lies of the campaign.
    Key point to remember is that Boris is a weak candidate. He's divisive, incompetent (eight years of running London rather ineptly) dishonest and also has been pretty unpleasant all the way through the campaign. Looking at the way the votes fell there is clearly an argument to be made that Leave won despite him not because of him.

    A low-key remainer loudly accepting the result might find it easier to reunite the party and the country and is less likely to make a dog's dinner of exit negotiations or anything else. Moreover with Labour in such desperate straits there is no political need for a showman or a safe candidate. A punt may be taken

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.
    Straw in the wind but most of the prominent Tory Leave MPs were greeted with silent, cold and sullen hostility by their colleagues when putting questions to Cameron in the Commons this afternoon.
    I think you mean reverential awe. They sound alike.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    edited June 2016
    chestnut said:

    Kane has been absolutely awful, yet again.

    Not as bad as Rooney! He is supposed to be playing in that creative role where he is calm and collected on the ball looking for the killer pass & tonight 9/10 it has bobbled off him or his pass has been delivered at awkward pace / height.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Wilshire was a great addition to the England team.

    For my bet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,860
    Rooney, you are a fucking embarrassment....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Awful attempt on goal, again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,203
    Wales vs Iceland in the final?
  • TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    My hunch is May will probably get it, but if Crabb stands it would not be surprising to see him make the runoff.

    So we risk getting a completely unknown, untested and unelected novice in place to make decisions that will have existential consequences for our nation.

    It's no way to run a country.
    No, but the other way hasn't exactly worked either.

    And Boris' problem is that we all know what he's capable of - showmanship and vacuity. He's Gordon with a sense of humour and a silly haircut. Better anyone than him.
    Alistair Campbell had it right yesterday when he said that when you see Cameron on the world stage you feel a bit of pride that he's the PM ...could you say the same about Boris?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ydoethur said:

    anotherDave said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I won't be first, but apparently its Crabb for the leadership and Javid for CX.

    What are they thinking? While complete and utter non-entities like Crabb and Javid are messing around we're delaying the chance of getting a new leader and Chancellor in place as soon as possible.

    We all know its going to be Theresa and Boris in the final two so lets just get on with it.
    In 2001 it was Portillo vs Clarke. In 2005 it was Davis vs Fox. In 1997 it was Clarke vs Howard. In 1990 it was Heseltine or Hurd. In all of those cases none of them ended up winning. Only in 2005 was the campaign significantly longer than this one will be.

    If Crabb and Leadsom stand, there is value in betting on Boris to go out in the first round. He will certainly be struggling to make the final two.

    Crabb is clearly a value bet. That's not to say he will win, merely that it would be very foolish to write him off.
    I've got £10 on Leadsom @ 16/1.

    I think there has to be at least one Leave option in the final two, if not both, and she and Mr Johnson are the best known.
    Seems a fair bet for the final two if she stands. She is certainly a plausible candidate and if the Leavers coalesce around one candidate she might be a way of saving their blushes.

    I just can't see her beating Theresa May or any other ranking Cabinet minister.
    I think the winner has to a Leave MP. If the membership couldn't stomach Ken Clarke over IDS, they've surely got to back the Leave candidate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,465
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lowlander said:

    A genuine question.

    Do English people get embarrassed by the commentaries on England games?

    I feel envious of the other home nations for whom being at the tournament is a big thing. Tyldesley just over does his commentary.
    I have a theory that if England games had commentaries by Scots in Scotland, etc, then people in the other home nations would be much, much more favourable towards England.
    And yet, when I hear Gerry Armstrong doing a Northern Ireland game I really want them to win? Doesn't work with Robbie Savage and Wales, mind.
    Because there is a pragmatism from commentators in most of the home nattions. Savage is very much from the English school of "its all biased against us, every foul should be a red card". Scotland games (even against minnows) do not go in saying "we'll win this".

    Savage on the Wales games sounded just like the English commentators and pundits do on England games. Armstrong sounded the way you would want a commentator to sound. Hopeful but not arrogant.
    I've completely emotionally disinvested from English national football. They've been so mediocre for so long they just bore me, now, and I NEVER anticipate a victory

    It is odd tho. How a country with so many players and so much money and such a strong domestic culture could be SO crap for SO long, barely troubling semi finals in 40 years.

    It is a statistical anomaly.
    When we leave the EU, our football will improve automagically.
    Leaving FIFA, which I believe was a Leavers' plan, will also release us from having to play in these elitist, undemocratic competitions.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/747524893978267653
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