They're moving to a genuine two tier Europe, which is the sensible way.
The EU is the Eurozone; EFTA are the rest.
It's just the rebalancing the arrangement now. Add UK, Denmark, Sweden to the Swiss, Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
It also makes it very clear that Scotland will have to accept the Euro if they want to go and join the EU.
Scotland CANNOT be a truly Independent nation if she chooses the EU.
She can be like Germany , France , Italy , Demark, Netherlands , etc e, etc , a huge huge , huge improvement.
Yes she can indeed join the Euro. And of course have 65% of her trade subject to tariffs.
Be the first time that is compulsory and if done as replacing UK then not on table , so who knows.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
It appears many leavers thought they were voting for deportation
Shhh
Posting things like that upsets people here.
I posted on Friday morning that it was abundantly clear the Leavers a) did not expect to win b) did not want to win c) had no plan if they did win. That has proved true.
Anecdote: spoke to a barmaid last night, she voted Leave. How did she feel when she woke up on Friday morning: "scared. There has to be a plan, but there is no plan." How would she vote if re-run: "oh god, I wouldn't vote"
spoke to five remainers "how would you vote now?" "Out."
We have seen a lot about the crying of the remainers because it suits the views of the metropolitan media, rather less about the almost complete non-appearance of the 7 Plagues of Project Fear, the FTSE is up, Sterling is where it was in February, the French have said no refugee camps in Kent, and there is no indications of massed troop movements in Europe. Cameron and Osborne are revealed to the public as liars for all to see, people cowed by Project Fear will be voting Leave next time around.
Setting a few hostages to fortune up?
Further shitstorm incoming on Monday
I think the markets in the next two or three weeks, are going to be crucial as to whether we actually quit.
If there is a bloodbath I suspect people will start to get cold feet, and a renegotiation will become much more tempting, and another vote. As has happened so often in the EU before. Horrible but true.
If there is relative stability the politics will also settle down, and we will go through summer knowing that A50 will be triggered in the Autumn.
It all comes down to the markets. They will decide. As ever. I wonder if they are in shock and we have yet to see the real reaction. Eyes down, brace position.
Yet most Leave voters could not care less about the markets, they voted Leave because of immigration. Personally I think the markets will settle soon but even if they don't that does not necessarily change things
The political power of the markets is overrated.
Indeed, obviously if you are relatively wealthy and have a lot of investments it is a concern but most of the wealthy voted Remain on Thursday, it was the poor and those on average incomes who voted Leave and who have little to lose anyway!
Spot on. I remember how little anything changed when the markets tanked after the financial crash.
To be sure and I believe we are a separate country, we have been on different trajectories for last 20 years at least. We have voted against right wing governments consistently but had them foisted upon us.
Well, it could be argued that Scotland 'foisted' Labour governments on England though Im not sure you could call them left wing. Thats the thing about being part of a 300 year union involving 4 countries though. You have a large say in whats going on. You lose some but you also win some. Not so easy being a wee fella among 27+.
Labour had a majority of MPs in England in 1997 and 2001.
Have made a small donation to Mike and PB. If you haven't donated yet make sure you do... PB has been THE place to go over the past few weeks and there's much, much more to come...
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The prospect of a meaningful border at Carlisle wasn't really in play in 2014 for those voting for secession, because Sturgeon was able to convince them that accession to the EU would be a doddle. It will be harder to brush under the carpet a second time around.
Read my post again. The point is that the issue of the Scottish border didn't cut much ice back in 2014. With the UK out of the EU and the issue of the Irish border a very real one, I think it would a second time around.
Some people asked last week "was I happy that x% of laws were made in Brussels rather than Westminster?"
The reason that I am not troubled is that it is obvious that our Westminster politicians are complete dipsticks. They are a shambles and I wouldn't trust them to walk my dog, though they may be safer doing that as at least the dog knows where to go!
We are heading in the direction of a failed state.
My dog, little Trotsky, once swam across a canal and pegged it back a mile to our house when she escaped from carers. The usual thing about this was, aside from the fact that she is only 7 pounds, she had never done this walk on the canal to get home before.
To be sure and I believe we are a separate country, we have been on different trajectories for last 20 years at least. We have voted against right wing governments consistently but had them foisted upon us.
Well, it could be argued that Scotland 'foisted' Labour governments on England though Im not sure you could call them left wing. Thats the thing about being part of a 300 year union involving 4 countries though. You have a large say in whats going on. You lose some but you also win some. Not so easy being a wee fella among 27+.
When you have 8% of the vote you cannot foist anything on anyone, just impossible.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
THe rush for Irish passports in Northern Ireland suggests the opposite.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
With oil at $50 Sindy is a basket case. Sturgeon is attention seeking.
LOL, armchair expert has spoken, Turnip of the day award.
What do you consider to be the impact of the decline in the oil price on the fiscal position of an independent Scotland now versus that in 2014?
I never ever saw oil as anything other than a short term bonus, I don't see it as a major issue.
Just seen the following posted on a group in Steam.
"We are proud to acknowledge not only standards of international human rights and development, but also the sheer weight of science: it is academically and empirically proven that all humans, regardless of social categorization or complexion, are physiologically similar. There is no biological basis or metric that anyone person can say that other groups of people are inferior or superior.
In the wake of the Brexit vote, we have seen a tremendous outpouring of hatred and disgust for xenophobia against Leave voters in this group. Good. Those people are social Luddites and must be treated as such - with disdain, ridicule and fervent debate. "
Sigh, all people are equal , except leavers ...... ok
Yeah, Watson's going to tell him to quit tomorrow isn't he?
Does Watson fancy the job for himself. Seems like he might be a bit too far to the right for a lot of members tastes, but a known heavyweight with excellent union connections might be worth a flutter if they are looking for someone to put the party on a General Election footing at potentially short notice.
cambell on sky with diatribe agin boris's value to Tories as leader.
=>cambell's frit.
Blimey, now he's almost recommending lab try TB again!
Corbyn wants to hang around long enough to put the boot into "war criminal" Blair after Chilcott. Labour has never been as close to his heart as Stop The War has.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
It appears many leavers thought they were voting for deportation
Shhh
Posting things like that upsets people here.
I posted on Friday morning that it was abundantly clear the Leavers a) did not expect to win b) did not want to win c) had no plan if they did win. That has proved true.
Anecdote: spoke to a barmaid last night, she voted Leave. How did she feel when she woke up on Friday morning: "scared. There has to be a plan, but there is no plan." How would she vote if re-run: "oh god, I wouldn't vote"
spoke to five remainers "how would you vote now?" "Out."
We have seen a lot about the crying of the remainers because it suits the views of the metropolitan media, rather less about the almost complete non-appearance of the 7 Plagues of Project Fear, the FTSE is up, Ste.
Setting a few hostages to fortune up?
Further shitstorm incoming on Monday
I think the markets in the next two or three weeks, are going to be crucial as to whether we actually quit.
If there is a bloodbath I suspect people will start to get cold feet, and a renegotiation will become much more tempting, and another vote. As has happened so often in the EU before. Horrible but true.
If there is relative stability the politics will also settle down, and we will go through summer knowing that A50 will be triggered in the Autumn.
It all comes down to the markets. They will decide. As ever. I wonder if they are in shock and we have yet to see the real reaction. Eyes down, brace position.
Yet most Leave voters could not care less about the markets, they voted Leave because of immigration. Personally I think the markets will settle soon but even if they don't that does not necessarily change things
The political power of the markets is overrated.
Indeed, obviously if you are relatively wealthy and have a lot of investments it is a concern but most of the wealthy voted Remain on Thursday, it was the poor and those on average incomes who voted Leave and who have little to lose anyway!
Spot on. I remember how little anything changed when the markets tanked after the financial crash.
Indeed, the populist left tried to create a surge to socialism but it is immigration which has produced the real populist upsurge
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
With oil at $50 Sindy is a basket case. Sturgeon is attention seeking.
LOL, armchair expert has spoken, Turnip of the day award.
What do you consider to be the impact of the decline in the oil price on the fiscal position of an independent Scotland now versus that in 2014?
I never ever saw oil as anything other than a short term bonus, I don't see it as a major issue.
That's because you're a die hard. Nothing wrong with that (though we obviously differ deeply) but of course most people aren't.
Personally I think Scotland should (and will) see how Brexit Britain shapes up. The tectonic plates are shifting. We might not be in terminal decline after all. Why go back into the EU? What is there to go back into?
There's no ID checking, so it's about as valid as Boaty McBoatface. Those with the technical know-how can vote a million times if they want.
Sorry Andrew, but I wasn't referring to the online petition. Your points are true though.
What I meant, was following on from Mr Tyndall's point about errors in opinion polls, that an agreement with reality is really quite a surprise - you expect them to be wrong.
cambell on sky with diatribe agin boris's value to Tories as leader.
=>cambell's frit.
Blimey, now he's almost recommending lab try TB again!
Corbyn wants to hang around long enough to put the boot into "war criminal" Blair after Chilcott. Labour has never been as close to his heart as Stop The War has.
Yep. And I think that's what he intends to do. On the floor of the House Of Commons he will call Blair a war criminal and demand his arrest and trial.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
They can only offer unrestricted free trade with the rest of the UK if they have that themselves.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
Spot on. I remember how little anything changed when the markets tanked after the financial crash.
Indeed, the populist left tried to create a surge to socialism but it is immigration which has produced the real populist upsurge
They never sold their agenda. They brushed debate and opposition under the carpet with claims of "waycist" and never once tried to sell multiculturalism and immigration. Probably because the first was utterly unsellable and the latter was too hard.
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The Spanish (and French) can be as obstructive as they like, if the process can be achieved by QMV (and it clearly can, even if it involves some fudging) then they cannot Veto it. Without a Veto they get over-ruled.
New members have to be approved by every state. France and Spain would have a veto.
I am not saying they would use it. Just that they do have t.
The accession of new members is the one thing that cannot be changed to QMV, because it requires a new treaty signed by all the members.
cambell on sky with diatribe agin boris's value to Tories as leader.
=>cambell's frit.
Blimey, now he's almost recommending lab try TB again!
Corbyn wants to hang around long enough to put the boot into "war criminal" Blair after Chilcott. Labour has never been as close to his heart as Stop The War has.
Yep. And I think that's what he intends to do. On the floor of the House Of Commons he will call Blair a war criminal and demand his arrest and trial.
He probably views every move against him as motivated by protecting Blair. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
They can only offer unrestricted free trade with the rest of the UK if they have that themselves.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man do NOT have free trade agreements with the European Union. They have free trade agreements with the United Kingdom. That's it.
There is absolutely no barrier to Scotland within the EU and England outside the Single Market while Scotland and England maintain free trade. None at all.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The Spanish (and French) can be as obstructive as they like, if the process can be achieved by QMV (and it clearly can, even if it involves some fudging) then they cannot Veto it. Without a Veto they get over-ruled.
New members have to be approved by every state. France and Spain would have a veto.
I am not saying they would use it. Just that they do have t.
The accession of new members is the one thing that cannot be changed to QMV, because it requires a new treaty signed by all the members.
Transfer of membership to a continuing state can almost certainly be done by QMV.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But i
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
THe rush for Irish passports in Northern Ireland suggests the opposite.
That rush for Irish passports:
"Figures from Ireland's Department of Foreign Affairs earlier this month showed the total number of Irish passport applications from the UK this year is 3,334 - up very slightly from 3,239 over the same period last year."
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
They can only offer unrestricted free trade with the rest of the UK if they have that themselves.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man do NOT have free trade agreements with the European Union. They have free trade agreements with the United Kingdom. That's it.
There is absolutely no barrier to Scotland within the EU and England outside the Single Market while Scotland and England maintain free trade. None at all.
Why on earth would we want free trade with an independant Scotland?
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But i
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
THe rush for Irish passports in Northern Ireland suggests the opposite.
That rush for Irish passports:
"Figures from Ireland's Department of Foreign Affairs earlier this month showed the total number of Irish passport applications from the UK this year is 3,334 - up very slightly from 3,239 over the same period last year."
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
All the uncertainty is over what the future UK relationship within, or outside, the EU will look like. That is not a question the current HM Government can answer. The vacuum is a direct consequence of the vague and subsequent-retraction-heavy strategy of Vote Leave. If you spend Saturday saying that what you told people would happen isn't going to happen, you own the chaos.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The Spanish (and French) can be as obstructive as they like, if the process can be achieved by QMV (and it clearly can, even if it involves some fudging) then they cannot Veto it. Without a Veto they get over-ruled.
New members have to be approved by every state. France and Spain would have a veto.
I am not saying they would use it. Just that they do have t.
The accession of new members is the one thing that cannot be changed to QMV, because it requires a new treaty signed by all the members.
Transfer of membership to a continuing state can almost certainly be done by QMV.
No it could not, because the EU exists as an entity created by its treaties. A new member - the Kingdom of Scotland - would need to sign the treaties, as would all the existing members. You couldn't transfer it, just as you can't transfer your employment contract to another person.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
They can only offer unrestricted free trade with the rest of the UK if they have that themselves.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man do NOT have free trade agreements with the European Union. They have free trade agreements with the United Kingdom. That's it.
There is absolutely no barrier to Scotland within the EU and England outside the Single Market while Scotland and England maintain free trade. None at all.
Why on earth would we want free trade with an independant Scotland?
But it's common sense. Scotland is not a sovereign power able to join the EU, no more than Catalunya or Corsica are.
And Spain and France (despite the temptation to fuck England) will not want to encourage separatists in those regions by letting them think they can negotiate directly with Brussels.
It's not going to happen. The Spanish in particular will be obstructive.
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Schengen (meaning borders at Berwick), the euro (meaning interest rates set in Frankfurt) and the eurozone (meaning possible tariffs on trade with England). Also national bankruptcy. Inter alia.
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
The Spanish (and French) can be as obstructive as they like, if the process can be achieved by QMV (and it clearly can, even if it involves some fudging) then they cannot Veto it. Without a Veto they get over-ruled.
New members have to be approved by every state. France and Spain would have a veto.
I am not saying they would use it. Just that they do have t.
The accession of new members is the one thing that cannot be changed to QMV, because it requires a new treaty signed by all the members.
Transfer of membership to a continuing state can almost certainly be done by QMV.
No it could not, because the EU exists as an entity created by its treaties. A new member - the Kingdom of Scotland - would need to sign the treaties, as would all the existing members. You couldn't transfer it, just as you can't transfer your employment contract to another person.
I think Lowlander's rather bizarre argument is that Scotland would be the successor state to the UK. England and Wales would be the new kid on the block
Until our national psychotic episode last Thursday, I doubt many people had the slightest yearning to get an Irish passport.
I could kick myself though last year for not buying a property in Edinburgh. I did look, but opted for Norwich instead. The weather was the deciding factor. Edinburgh weather is shocking.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
But i
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
THe rush for Irish passports in Northern Ireland suggests the opposite.
That rush for Irish passports:
"Figures from Ireland's Department of Foreign Affairs earlier this month showed the total number of Irish passport applications from the UK this year is 3,334 - up very slightly from 3,239 over the same period last year."
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
All the uncertainty is over what the future UK relationship within, or outside, the EU will look like. That is not a question the current HM Government can answer. The vacuum is a direct consequence of the vague and subsequent-retraction-heavy strategy of Vote Leave. If you spend Saturday saying that what you told people would happen isn't going to happen, you own the chaos.
We seem to have to repeat this about every 20 minutes today. Vote Leave Ltd are a campaign. We have not just had a General Election, the Tory MPs elected in 2015 are still the government. Vote Leave don't "own" anything, the current and future ministers of the government "own" it. If Theresa May is elected leader of the Tory party it is entirely possible that neither Boris nor Gove will be in any ministerial position, and she will choose to negotiate her own approach to the mandate given to by the people.
Yes, the English/Welsh Brexit vote was not just self-harm but also caused a lot of collateral damage to neighbours, particularly in Ireland (though perhaps more North than South). What it doesn't say is that Ireland wants to follow the UK. Old-time nostalgia for Empire mustn't be as popular over there for whatever reason.
I go back to what I have said all along. The EU needs to unify not because of any great evil masterplan but simply =because without doing so the Eurozone will fail.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
There's some truth in that. But it's also why the EU will feel compelled to offer Scotland membership on terms which will not harm her economy (i.e. full, unrestricted free trade with England and Wales).
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
They can only offer unrestricted free trade with the rest of the UK if they have that themselves.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man do NOT have free trade agreements with the European Union. They have free trade agreements with the United Kingdom. That's it.
There is absolutely no barrier to Scotland within the EU and England outside the Single Market while Scotland and England maintain free trade. None at all.
Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man are not independent countries, They are Crown dependencies. Under international law they are defined as "territories for which the United Kingdom is responsible". There is a big difference.
No it could not, because the EU exists as an entity created by its treaties. A new member - the Kingdom of Scotland - would need to sign the treaties, as would all the existing members. You couldn't transfer it, just as you can't transfer your employment contract to another person.
Your employment contract can be transferred to another employer under TUPE. I'm not sure these analogies are very useful though. I believe that either the way I outlined earlier or by another method, the EU has the wit and wherewithall to fudge it if they decide they wish it to happen.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
Bu
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Sche
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
And the PB Brexitariat.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Tbf there's more than just the Irish freaked by the economic implications of Brexit, not least some Brexiteers!
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
You're posting this to take the piss out of it right?
Which is 'The Real Brexit Map', sport?
The blue map (as I type this I really can't believe there's a cybernat conspiracy over the colour of a map - and that's from a paid up conspiracy theorist), shows the level of Brexit support. The yellow map shows the level of Remain support. In his screengrabbing, Fraser Nelson has chosen the blue map. And given it the not wholly fantasy title of 'Brexit Map'. Had he chosen the yellow map, an equally valid choice imo, that would have been more the 'Remain Map'.
Either one of these maps offers a considerably more realistic picture of voting patterns than the official blue and yellow number, though perhaps a less sensationalist one.
With those two points in mind 'The Real Brexit Map' doesn't seem to be a huge misnomer. Perhaps I'm missing something.
The difference in contrast!!!!!!! (by the BBC - evidently big supporters of Leave)
Then he debunks himself by saying the contrast is actually the human eye!!!!
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Seems to me we are still in project fear, cameron has left 3 months for the remain establishment (all the parties, all the broadcast media, most big business) to try and blame everything on leave (call them racists etc...yawn), they will try and talk us into recession and day after day will try and get us so scared that we will accept those lovely EU peoples offer of salvation before October.
You're posting this to take the piss out of it right?
Which is 'The Real Brexit Map', sport?
The blue map (as I type this I really can't believe there's a cybernat conspiracy over the colour of a map - and that's from a paid up conspiracy theorist), shows the level of Brexit support. The yellow map shows the level of Remain support. In his screengrabbing, Fraser Nelson has chosen the blue map. And given it the not wholly fantasy title of 'Brexit Map'. Had he chosen the yellow map, an equally valid choice imo, that would have been more the 'Remain Map'.
Either one of these maps offers a considerably more realistic picture of voting patterns than the official blue and yellow number, though perhaps a less sensationalist one.
With those two points in mind 'The Real Brexit Map' doesn't seem to be a huge misnomer. Perhaps I'm missing something.
The difference in contrast!!!!!!! (by the BBC - evidently big supporters of Leave)
Then he debunks himself by saying the contrast is actually the human eye!!!!
Mess.
Yes and Nelson posted it with a deliberately misleading scale.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Intel's second largest fabrication plant is just outside Dublin. And something like 30% of all the drugs made in Europe (excluding MDMA) are made in Ireland.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Doubt it. Wages are quite a bit higher in Dublin than Sunderland.
Seems to me we are still in project fear, cameron has left 3 months for the remain establishment (all the parties, all the broadcast media, most big business) to try and blame everything on leave (call them racists etc...yawn), they will try and talk us into recession and day after day will try and get us so scared that we will accept those lovely EU peoples offer of salvation before October.
There is no talking. There is only the doing of millions of individual actors.
The Irish government (or the Dublin Development Corporation, or whoever it is), is making a pitch for British finance companies to come to Dublin. Because it is in their self interest to do so.
I have no doubt that - in my capacity as founder of Crowdscores or PythonAnywhere - I will get emails and the like from Krakow, telling me how easy it would be to move there, and how I'll benefit from access to a single EU-wide labour market and being inside the EU.
These groupings are - just like us - acting in their own best interests. If Ireland was leaving the EU, we'd be pitching to persuade Apple and Intel to come to the UK.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Nissan, Honda, Toyota and other Japanese and other non-EU manufacturers could also part relocate there taking some of their skilled workers with them.
Doubt it. Wages are quite a bit higher in Dublin than Sunderland.
Also, it's a pain shipping cars from Dublin to Turin.
"The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon's new bid for independence - by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves. The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking 'immediate discussions' with Brussels to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'. But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday's shock Leave vote."
Yet not a single claim in the entire article is substantiated.
EU rulings are not secretly shown to journalists under cover of dark to be reported on in the abstract. They are openly published and available for all to see freely.
It's just more made up nonsense from the Mail. Not unexpectedly.
Bu
And then, if and when Brexit happens, and Sindyref 2 is then won, Scotland will have to join Sche
I can see the keen emotional desire for Sindy. But the practicalities are still horrible. Arguably they are now worse.
As the white heat of new passion for indy in the wake of Brexit (59%) cools, and the legalities and practicalities reassert themselves, so the prospects of the neverendum will fade.
Scots keen on indy after Brexit might look across the Irish Sea, and note that lots of people there think Ireland might now have to LEAVE the EU, to preserve free trade and movement with the UK. It probably won't get that drastic, but it gives an insight into the problems Scotland would face leaving an iUK, to go into the EU.
Who thinks Ireland now has to leave the EU?
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
And the PB Brexitariat.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
It was an Irish airline boss who raised this I understand. It was in the event of post-Brexit UK going in hard with tax competition. It remains to be seen whether that will happen.
Well, it could be argued that Scotland 'foisted' Labour governments on England though Im not sure you could call them left wing. Thats the thing about being part of a 300 year union involving 4 countries though. You have a large say in whats going on. You lose some but you also win some. Not so easy being a wee fella among 27+.
Labour had a majority of MPs in England in 1997 and 2001.
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. Somebody else should have given you wings"
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Or more accurately
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
All the uncertainty is over what the future UK relationship within, or outside, the EU will look like. That is not a question the current HM Government can answer. The vacuum is a direct consequence of the vague and subsequent-retraction-heavy strategy of Vote Leave. If you spend Saturday saying that what you told people would happen isn't going to happen, you own the chaos.
We seem to have to repeat this about every 20 minutes today. Vote Leave Ltd are a campaign. We have not just had a General Election, the Tory MPs elected in 2015 are still the government. Vote Leave don't "own" anything, the current and future ministers of the government "own" it. If Theresa May is elected leader of the Tory party it is entirely possible that neither Boris nor Gove will be in any ministerial position, and she will choose to negotiate her own approach to the mandate given to by the people.
If you stage a victorious campaign and then tell people literally verbatim "they are going to disappointed" when your proposed change is abrogated, then enter purdah, you do own that, yeah. It causes huge uncertainty and it is an act of recklessness to go to the people and whip up a majority based on lies.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
Comments
I think a shaded two-colour map based on majority is best.
Juncker is now making clear the response to this crisis is more EU - and the move he is making is forcing countries into the Euro. I seriously doubt they will accept Scotland without that.
Be independent. Don't just throw it away again.
=>cambell's frit.
Blimey, now he's almost recommending lab try TB again!
I count the fringe Neanderthal wing of the Ulster Unionists and some pan-insular Communists.
With best wishes from the Vote Leave Campaign
Just as it will do with Ireland.
Just as it does already with Denmark and its non-EU regions.
Just as it does with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
Looks like ageism is going to be the latest -ism to hit the Labour Party.
"We are proud to acknowledge not only standards of international human rights and development, but also the sheer weight of science: it is academically and empirically proven that all humans, regardless of social categorization or complexion, are physiologically similar. There is no biological basis or metric that anyone person can say that other groups of people are inferior or superior.
In the wake of the Brexit vote, we have seen a tremendous outpouring of hatred and disgust for xenophobia against Leave voters in this group. Good. Those people are social Luddites and must be treated as such - with disdain, ridicule and fervent debate. "
Sigh, all people are equal , except leavers ...... ok
Personally I think Scotland should (and will) see how Brexit Britain shapes up. The tectonic plates are shifting. We might not be in terminal decline after all. Why go back into the EU? What is there to go back into?
What I meant, was following on from Mr Tyndall's point about errors in opinion polls, that an agreement with reality is really quite a surprise - you expect them to be wrong.
Basically if the UK decides on a single market agreement then no problem. If they do not then the EU cannot have one country trading freely with an external trading partner whilst the rest of the EU/UK trade is subject to tariffs.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1342078/former-ni-secretary-lord-mayhew-dies-aged-86/
"Our job was to persuade you to jump off the cliff. If you didnt get a parachute first it isnt exactly our fault"
In the same way as if CND had persuaded the government of the merits of unilateral disarmament, we would not be expecting them to hand the MoD a new plan to beef up its conventional forces.
There is absolutely no barrier to Scotland within the EU and England outside the Single Market while Scotland and England maintain free trade. None at all.
Look at top gear.
http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-aftershock-irish-ministers-told-to-curb-new-spending-plans-34833908.html
and coming week to see any evidence.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Until our national psychotic episode last Thursday, I doubt many people had the slightest yearning to get an Irish passport.
I could kick myself though last year for not buying a property in Edinburgh. I did look, but opted for Norwich instead. The weather was the deciding factor. Edinburgh weather is shocking.
I posted a rebuttal which will probably mean I will be flamed for days on there.
Amazing how hatred is ok if it is aimed at those you disagree with......
What could possibly go wrong with that idea........
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/live-blog-jeremy-corbyn-hit-shadow-cabinet-revolt
Either one of these maps offers a considerably more realistic picture of voting patterns than the official blue and yellow number, though perhaps a less sensationalist one.
With those two points in mind 'The Real Brexit Map' doesn't seem to be a huge misnomer. Perhaps I'm missing something.
The difference in contrast!!!!!!! (by the BBC - evidently big supporters of Leave)
Then he debunks himself by saying the contrast is actually the human eye!!!!
Mess.
Polls don't close for another 10 minutes mind.
There are two exit polls. Both overstated new parties at the expense of the PP and PSOE last time, so worth bearing that in mind.
Thank you.
I'd suggest that when we enter negotiations on our exit we involve a trio of old heads as consultants - Blair, Clegg, and Cameron.
Boris setting the agenda, but those three as a consultant body.
The Irish government (or the Dublin Development Corporation, or whoever it is), is making a pitch for British finance companies to come to Dublin. Because it is in their self interest to do so.
I have no doubt that - in my capacity as founder of Crowdscores or PythonAnywhere - I will get emails and the like from Krakow, telling me how easy it would be to move there, and how I'll benefit from access to a single EU-wide labour market and being inside the EU.
These groupings are - just like us - acting in their own best interests. If Ireland was leaving the EU, we'd be pitching to persuade Apple and Intel to come to the UK.
Blair: That's a terrible idea
Clegg: Unthinkable!
Cameron: Surely you are joking!
Boris: ... break for lunch.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/747114334162149378