Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Its part of the Brexit plan since they're worried about a recession.
It's also a nail in Edinburghs coffin as by the time the iScots have sorted themselves out there'll be no business for the Scottish finance sector to chase.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
This is entirely possible. But it would effectively render the referendum moot. God help the UK.
Isn't it lovely to think that in a few month's time we can abandon euroscepticism. It can become a thing of the past. People who love Europe can just love it, people who prefer Bognor can just do that, and whether someone is a chauvanist bigot can be judged on whether they're a chauvanist bigot. Europe will be Europe, and it will still be there with all its beauty to be enjoyed and appreciated, and Britain will be Britain. Truly a wonderful prospect.
Euroscepticism is probably misnamed it should have been euscepticism. Most leavers probably like Europe - it's people, culture and climate. They just didn't like the brown paper and string tying it all together.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
Hah. Come off it Bill. Look. someone at some point has to accept that it was heavily implied at the very least immigration would come down. No skin of my nose if they decide not to, but even if individuals chose not to push that line, that was one of the less open to interpretation claims, at least in terms of the general point.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
What we need is for Osborne to stride out tomorrow, holding aloft his fully-worked-out early-stage Brexit plan. Yes, many Leavers will cry that it's no longer his business and he should butt out, but it's clear everyone else is terrified of making the first move. Come on, George, your day of destiny awaits...
If he is as canny as I think he is, he will have been up all weekend and he and his team will have a fully-worked out such plan and will present it (will ofc have the backing of the, ahem, PM).
Cut off at the knees those who throw their hands up and say "the govt didn't do any planning", cuts off at the knees those who say "it's up to the govt.", cuts off at the knees those who say "we need a Brexiteer in charge".
In all honesty if he did that I could see him winning back a huge amount of good will.
All the more do if he did it with Gove and Boris stood beside him .
Edit. Fantasy land I know but sometimes it us nice to indulge oneself.
Yes but it's a big if. Farron is doing the right thing but his is such a tiny party and their credibility is shot.
But yes of course - put a sensible leader in charge of Lab (I have Stephen Kinnock at something nice-to-one), be pro-EU, force a GE (no idea how, refuse to ratify anything, perhaps), and voila. To use an enemy phrase.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
It actually makes me even happier that Leave won. It shows the contempt that our politicians have for us. They are so arrogant they didn't think that this could happen. They thought they could use this referendum to stamp their authority on us. Well, it failed.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
Isn't it lovely to think that in a few month's time we can abandon euroscepticism. It can become a thing of the past. People who love Europe can just love it, people who prefer Bognor can just do that, and whether someone is a chauvanist bigot can be judged on whether they're a chauvanist bigot. Europe will be Europe, and it will still be there with all its beauty to be enjoyed and appreciated, and Britain will be Britain. Truly a wonderful prospect.
Euroscepticism is probably misnamed it should have been euscepticism. Most leavers probably like Europe - it's people, culture and climate. They just didn't like the brown paper and string tying it all together.
I love Europe. Lived in France for a few months, many of my friends are from the continent. Not wanting it to have political control over my country (or my country over it) currently makes me a racist bigot. I look forward not to being one.
RIP Euroscepticism. Surely something all PBers can raise a dram to.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Its part of the Brexit plan since they're worried about a recession.
It's also a nail in Edinburghs coffin as by the time the iScots have sorted themselves out there'll be no business for the Scottish finance sector to chase.
That's true: there are probably a number of Edinburgh based fund managers who could be enticed across the Irish Sea.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
For some time mooted as the "sticking plaster" approach.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
With my lawyer hat on, I'm genuinely interested to see which EU originated laws are so offensive that they'll be swiftly washed away. I've struggled to find specifics but I guess that they'll substantially relate to the environment. Capital punishment could return, I suppose.
Within my area of interest, most debt and equity capital markets stuff will have to remain, even if rebranded. We can ignore Brussels and Rome regs on reciprocal enforcement I suppose but we'll be hurting ourselves. Interested to see what happens on open skies. From memory, country to country open skies were limited (Netherlands, other maybe). A return to bilateral would be unfortunate but would benefit the old and tired legacy European airlines (AF-KLM, Alitalia I'm looking at you). I suspect that we'll see less Ryanair and WizzAir flights. EZY, unclear. It will probably work out but vested interests could easily come out to play. Still, restructuring a tend to be well compensated. Airlines dont collapse enough in Europe (cf c.11 in the US).
Perhaps employment will change. I don't know enough about the interaction between national and supranational law there.
Not to go all 'everyone's the same' but there's a lot of self delusion going on in the commentariat, even more than usual. Commentators criticising the lack of respect for democracy of Remainers, even though we know some Leavers stated before the vote if it was close it should be rerun. Remainers faint with anger some Leavers are giving Remainers short shrift, telling them bluntly it's over and its time to move on, though we know Remainers would have been similarly insistent that it was over, should they have one.
In summary, the human condition writ large. Some people on both sides being giant arseholes, amplified by social media.
Yes. And while emotions are running high, no one can pretend people on their side have not been or would have been just as guilty - it's human, political behaviour, not partisan behaviour.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
It's too early to say things will not work out - it's been a chaotic start, worse than some predicted, but it could also have been worse. I don't think we can say for sure whether it's time to regret votes until it's been a few years and our position and the EUs is clearer.
Isn't it lovely to think that in a few month's time we can abandon euroscepticism. It can become a thing of the past. People who love Europe can just love it, people who prefer Bognor can just do that, and whether someone is a chauvanist bigot can be judged on whether they're a chauvanist bigot. Europe will be Europe, and it will still be there with all its beauty to be enjoyed and appreciated, and Britain will be Britain. Truly a wonderful prospect.
Euroscepticism is probably misnamed it should have been euscepticism. Most leavers probably like Europe - it's people, culture and climate. They just didn't like the brown paper and string tying it all together.
I love Europe. Lived in France for a few months, many of my friends are from the continent. Not wanting it to have political control over my country (or my country over it) currently makes me a racist bigot. I look forward not to being one.
RIP Euroscepticism. Surely something all PBers can raise a dram to.
bollocks - it was remains' job to implement leaves promises....
I'm looking forward to proposing abolishing bad weather, the common cold, 10 more bank holidays a month and Piers Morgan in a future referendum despite what the establishment and their experts may say!! They can then sort it out for me when I righteously win as surely I will.
I used to like it when Stewart posted here - the only time we've had two named MPs on the site, and he was so obnoxious that even conservative PBers thought I was the lesser evil.
kle4 makes a good point on people remembering how they voted - it's worth keeping in mind in future polls. People tend to think they voted in accordance with what they think now, covering up embarrassing past votes.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge ment here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
You know what? Corbyn may not make it. Zoe Williams saying it's time for him to go is highly significant IMO.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
What shocks me is that the stuff experts said might happen really might happen. How does that work?
And have already been proved that they have not. Experts were wrong once again. Which begs the question, when were the experts ever right?
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
For some time mooted as the "sticking plaster" approach.
Please be aware that all EU laws, treaties and directives will remain in force until such time that the United Kingdom chooses to abrogate...etc...
And then take as long as they want.
Question is, as has been asked all day (and Pienaar was fantastic this morning), what will the people want, and when? If that is at all a consideration these days for politicians.
With my lawyer hat on, I'm genuinely interested to see which EU originated laws are so offensive that they'll be swiftly washed away. I've struggled to find specifics but I guess that they'll substantially relate to the environment. Capital punishment could return, I suppose.
Within my area of interest, most debt and equity capital markets stuff will have to remain, even if rebranded. We can ignore Brussels and Rome regs on reciprocal enforcement I suppose but we'll be hurting ourselves. Interested to see what happens on open skies. From memory, country to country open skies were limited (Netherlands, other maybe). A return to bilateral would be unfortunate but would benefit the old and tired legacy European airlines (AF-KLM, Alitalia I'm looking at you). I suspect that we'll see less Ryanair and WizzAir flights. EZY, unclear. It will probably work out but vested interests could easily come out to play. Still, restructuring a tend to be well compensated. Airlines dont collapse enough in Europe (cf c.11 in the US).
Perhaps employment will change. I don't know enough about the interaction between national and supranational law there.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been published, most of the uncertainty goes away.
Really? So does everyone have to educatedly guess exactly what the 6,000 page document is going to say on the basis that it might be applied retrospectively? Or do you mean that all EU rules remain in place until such time as they don't?
It would have to be a phased process in any event - unless you went Mad Max and tried to repeal all EU legislation in one bill or something.
What can be negotiated more quickly is the end state for the various big ticket items - borders, immigration, free market access etc.
Yes, EU rules would remain in place until they were removed, using legislation, as part of the deal.
The alternative - sit there while a sub-commitee of a sub-committe on the coordination of Avian Pet Sales within the EU comes out with the 33rd draft of the trade rules for EU-UK sales of parakeets - is not going to be a big seller to many people....
Unexpected side-effect of Brexit: Pokerstars is warning that due to unprecedented curerency turmoil, they will temporarily charge 4% on all currency conversions - presumably to stop people using them as a cheap speculative bank.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge mndorsement of the referendum.
I jus
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
That's unfortunate for her, but if people learn not to treat their votes as mere protests that will be a good thing. Besides, plenty of people who don't usually vote turned out, one theory being for once they knew their votes would make a difference, so not much excuse if others did not realise it could. And of course it won't be hundreds of thousands (though if in 12 months everything has gone to hell, it will become millions who claim that).
I was just interested to see that she was chanelling @SeanT. or vice versa.
Sean uses more words, of course, but I agree with you. Teaches them both a lesson to think before they vote.
I do not regret my vote. Not yet. NOT YET. But only a fool would be totally happy with the way things are panning out. This is just incredible:
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
The phrase "Tory Recession" could soon be back in vogue.
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Its part of the Brexit plan since they're worried about a recession.
It's also a nail in Edinburghs coffin as by the time the iScots have sorted themselves out there'll be no business for the Scottish finance sector to chase.
That's true: there are probably a number of Edinburgh based fund managers who could be enticed across the Irish Sea.
Superficially, Dublin is understandably attractive. Helpful range of DTTs, low corporate tax, English and US flights (plus clear US immigration before departure!) but there are real problems, both legal and practical. The legal one is that Irish companies cut be shams any more. Staff have yo live in Ireland and real decision making has to happen in Ireland. The practical ones are Dublin has a real shortage of office and residential space and it is, without doubt, a high tax economy. Yes I know that Ireland isn't just Dublin but Good luck having people move to Shannon and Limerick.....
I like Dublin and Ireland a lot and have spent a lot of time working there but it's not a easy slam dunk. FFM on the other hand....
From the government's £9million information pamphlet: "This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide." So have the government got a plan for Brexit, or were they making that bit up?
The bit you quote doesn't say they have a plan, it says they will implement the decision, which is not the same thing.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been published, most of the uncertainty goes away.
Really? So does everyone have to educatedly guess exactly what the 6,000 page document is going to say on the basis that it might be applied retrospectively? Or do you mean that all EU rules remain in place until such time as they don't?
It would have to be a phased process in any event - unless you went Mad Max and tried to repeal all EU legislation in one bill or something.
What can be negotiated more quickly is the end state for the various big ticket items - borders, immigration, free market access etc.
Yes, EU rules would remain in place until they were removed, using legislation, as part of the deal.
The alternative - sit there while a sub-commitee of a sub-committe on the coordination of Avian Pet Sales within the EU comes out with the 33rd draft of the trade rules for EU-UK sales of parakeets - is not going to be a big seller to many people....
Our border controls are set by the Treaties of the Common Travel Area, not the EU.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
The phrase "Tory Recession" could soon be back in vogue.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Made no plans according to the speculation of one Tory MP. Any official word for HMG? Carney said the BoE and HM Treasury had planned.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
The phrase "Tory Recession" could soon be back in vogue.
It was also a possibility, as you raised. If there were Tories out there who were happy to Leave only because they thought they would definitely be in power, well, that was very short sighted of them.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge ment here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
Alastair and myself wrote threads on this kind of scenario but we got nothing but abuse from PB Leavers for it.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
The phrase "Tory Recession" could soon be back in vogue.
What a surprise, the politicians are pretending they didn't plan anything in case the referendum was lost in a pathetic attempt to reverse the decision from the voters.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge ment here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
That's super-spooky. There was some old bird from Cleethorpes saying exactly the same thing ('cept for the bit about the market, and the banks) on the radio just now.
She voted because she wanted to register a protest but actually, now that she thinks about it, regrets it because she hadn't realised that Leave would actually win.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
Alastair and myself wrote threads on this kind of scenario but we got nothing but abuse from PB Leavers for it.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Made no plans according to the speculation of one Tory MP. Any official word for HMG? Carney said the BoE and HM Treasury had planned.
Cameron has betrayed the nation he supposedly loves. He had no fallback plan should Brexit succeed. He gambled all his chips on IN winning and so lost everything. Never has hubris been so nakedly exposed.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Public Administration at every level of the UK is an absolute shambles. We've been living on the past glories of efficient British bureaucracy dating back to the Empire for far too long and the chickens are all coming back to roost. Anyone who works in the public sector knows this, and the problems have been exacerbated 10 fold since the cuts really started to kick in post 2008. Organisations have been reorganised, cut, split, reorganised, hugely experienced staff who traditionally would have had careers spanning 30-40 years have gone, replaced by people who's experience is a few years in many cases not having been properly trained for the tasks they need to do.
If the new Con PM calls a GE and gets a majority then yes, we will leave.
But what if it's a Hung Parliament? Then how on earth is it actually going to happen? Coalition with LDs will halt it immediately - as LDs will vote against.
So it would need some kind of grand Con + Lab coalition. That doesn't seem very likely to me.
Should Betfair set up a market on whether we will be in the EU on, say, 1 July 2019 (ie giving 2 years plus a bit of extra time for leeway)?
I reckon it's 50:50 at most that we actually leave.
Seems increasingly to be that the UK will not leave the EU, but we will have two years of chaos, followed by another referendum.
Once we activate Article 50 we are leaving. That will happen once Cameron is gone at the latest.
hmmm
I still dont think this is over. The establishment have had a good kicking but they will come back and Boris is anything but consistent.
My guess is all sides will want a fudge. Not what you want to hear I know.
A fudge ment here could accept it without some sort of democratic endorsement to counter the democratic endorsement of the referendum.
I just don't know any more. If the worst economic predictions look like coming true, then a party which repudiated the referendum might actually benefit (especially if they fudged a renegotiation: giving a relieved people a new excuse to vote for status quo ante)
It all depends on the markets, starting tomorrow. It only takes two or three banks to say We're moving for the whole edifice to start collapsing.
Bloody hell.
I DON'T WANT THIS TO HAPPEN. Just to be clear.
There's actually an extraordinary route back to power for Labour here.
Let's say the economy tanks over the summer, and the direst predix come true. The Tories will have elected a Brexiteer (or May) so they won't be able to row back from LEAVE
If Labour were led by, say, Tom Watson, a man saying we should be in the EU, and not trigger A50, but we must do something on Free Movement; then Labour could win a majority, or a plurality, supported by the SNP then "renegotiate".
That is entirely possible. But first Labour need to get rid of Le Corb.
If LAB wants the 40% of voters who voted for BREXIT back saying we should be in the EU is a good way of ensuring they will never return.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been published, most of the uncertainty goes away.
Really? So does everyone have to educatedly guess exactly what the 6,000 page document is going to say on the basis that it might be applied retrospectively? Or do you mean that all EU rules remain in place until such time as they don't?
It would have to be a phased process in any event - unless you went Mad Max and tried to repeal all EU legislation in one bill or something.
What can be negotiated more quickly is the end state for the various big ticket items - borders, immigration, free market access etc.
Yes, EU rules would remain in place until they were removed, using legislation, as part of the deal.
The alternative - sit there while a sub-commitee of a sub-committe on the coordination of Avian Pet Sales within the EU comes out with the 33rd draft of the trade rules for EU-UK sales of parakeets - is not going to be a big seller to many people....
Our border controls are set by the Treaties of the Common Travel Area, not the EU.
True - but in this kind of negotiation they will be looking at the big picture level, where borders interact with immigration and trade.
Come on Remainers, man up, your whingeing is unbecoming. You lost, we are committed to leaving. It will take a big offer from the EU to make it worth while having another referendum.
They are quivering in fright at the prospect of their project unravelling before them.
The smart money in on a rapid negotiation pre Article 50 - one of the interesting things in international politics is how, once they *have* to get something done, how quickly it will happen.
My guess is that we are looking at a second referendum within 2 months to sign off on such a deal. If Remain are smart, they should start pushing for it - and use that support to get NoBrexit as the alternative on the ballot paper to The Deal.
I'd be very surprised if the UK-EU negotiate an agreement 'within 2 months'.
Lol, why 2 months. Hell let's get it done in a couple of weeks! Any advance on that?
One could reach "Heads of Terms" in a couple of weeks, with a full (treaty) agreement taking several years to be finalised.
That's exactly what I mean - a couple of pages. But a couple of pages that actually deal with the issues.
The 6,000 page version come later.
I'm struggling a bit to understand how the rules, rights and obligations of companies trading between the EU and the UK could seriously continue for several years on the basis of a document encompassing a couple of pages.
The point is to create the process for the transition from UK (in EU) to UK (something else). Once that roadmap has been pub they don't?
It would have to be a phased process in anpeople....
Our border controls are set by the Treaties of the Common Travel Area, not the EU.
PBs off on one today, really the only facts are turmoil in Labour and the Spanish election the rest is just froth
Tomorrow the real picture starts to unfolds. Since neither side is particularly looking a fight I could see a compromise cobbled together quite quickly. Whether that is in or EFTA remains to be seen, but as so often the odds are common sense will prevail both the EU and UK have too many problems ongoing to want to drag this out.
Bill Cash disowning migration numbers coming down dramatically and £350m claim.. nothing to do with him (on R5L) he was campaigning about other more important issues for leaving
Nice avatar
Thank you - seems apt...
I also agree it would be astonishing if the civil service hadn't done prep work for Brexit...
Yes, to be fair I probably overseasoned that haggis (I have been on this site for five hours now, I am getting tired). SOME Irish pundits have discussed IREXIT, but only to dismiss it.
What is certainly true is that the Irish are freaked by the economic implications of Brexit. This fear and doubt would be quintuple for Scexit.
Yesterday, I (in my capacity as a fund manager) recieved stuff from Ireland about how Dublin is a fantastic place to relocate my business to. Low taxes, low rent, in the single market for financial services.
I think they're going to take a swing at London, so I can't see them leaving.
Its part of the Brexit plan since they're worried about a recession.
It's also a nail in Edinburghs coffin as by the time the iScots have sorted themselves out there'll be no business for the Scottish finance sector to chase.
That's true: there are probably a number of Edinburgh based fund managers who could be enticed across the Irish Sea.
Superficially, Dublin is understandably attractive. Helpful range of DTTs, low corporate tax, English and US flights (plus clear US immigration before departure!) but there are real problems, both legal and practical. The legal one is that Irish companies cut be shams any more. Staff have yo live in Ireland and real decision making has to happen in Ireland. The practical ones are Dublin has a real shortage of office and residential space and it is, without doubt, a high tax economy. Yes I know that Ireland isn't just Dublin but Good luck having people move to Shannon and Limerick.....
I like Dublin and Ireland a lot and have spent a lot of time working there but it's not a easy slam dunk. FFM on the other hand....
God help me, Dublin is more a world city than FFM.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
"What do we want?" "Not much" "When do we want it?" "Any time it's convenient actually".
I feel we have a movement here .
Can I carry the placard that says "Down with this kind of thing!"...?
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Agree completely. Transpires that everyone thought Remain would win, so why bother planning? Serious plans were in place, in case we voted Yes in 2014, and that was a much longer shot. But no one bothered? And now no one appears to be in charge. Shambolic. No wonder people want rid of the 'political class'.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Look at this. I am getting actively depressed. Other countries had prepared for Brexit. We hadn't. WE HADN'T.
Whether you are left, right, in out, LEAVE REMAIN or a transvestite Scotsman with a beach donkey fetish, that is just astonishing, an utter failure by the government. We are ill served.
Why do people assume that a referendum means everyone is entirely polarised? I voted Leave, but it was a very close call. I find myself in very close agreement with almost all my friends about the issues, and around 50% of those friends voted Remain.
Anyone that finds themselves thinking that this was 100% right or 100% wrong probably needs to have a bit of a quiet period of thought.
We're often better than our politicians - sometimes much, much better.
Yes, very much agree with you. I don't think that all Remainers are quisling traitorous pig dogs, nor are all Leavers noble democrats. This is real life, not fucking Star Wars.
We'll all have our red lines that made us choose one side over another; immigration, sovereignty, the economy or whatever.
I'm a lukewarm Leaver. While I've felt for a long time that the EU has lost its way, it wouldn't have taken much to make me a lukewarm Remainer. It's a pity that it's all become so partisan and vitriolic.
Decent club of two then
I sort of want the badge saying 'quisling traitorous pig-dog' mind you.
In our club of two, supposing we wanted to march on Westminster, what should our slogan be? I quite like your 'lukewarm'.
"What do we want?" "Not much" "When do we want it?" "Any time it's convenient actually".
I feel we have a movement here .
Can I carry the placard that says "Down with this kind of thing!"...?
I'm sure there's one online of people holding signs like 'People who protest are dumb' 'People against people who protest'
Comments
It's also a nail in Edinburghs coffin as by the time the iScots have sorted themselves out there'll be no business for the Scottish finance sector to chase.
I'm baffled that you could post such a phrase.
All the more do if he did it with Gove and Boris stood beside him .
Edit. Fantasy land I know but sometimes it us nice to indulge oneself.
Yes but it's a big if. Farron is doing the right thing but his is such a tiny party and their credibility is shot.
But yes of course - put a sensible leader in charge of Lab (I have Stephen Kinnock at something nice-to-one), be pro-EU, force a GE (no idea how, refuse to ratify anything, perhaps), and voila. To use an enemy phrase.
Who are these Ubermensch that can make epoch-making decisions and then skip along completely unbothered?
Certainty is for fanatics, idiots and the young.
That's what he wants but is it what Farage wants? I see a UKIP showdown in the next 12 months - we'll be due a leadership election by then anyway.
RIP Euroscepticism. Surely something all PBers can raise a dram to.
I pray that they can get rid of Corbyn asap, for England's sake. Scotland have a credible political party but someone needs to step in to that role in England, the Corbyn opposition is a joke and the time for laughing is long gone.
Within my area of interest, most debt and equity capital markets stuff will have to remain, even if rebranded. We can ignore Brussels and Rome regs on reciprocal enforcement I suppose but we'll be hurting ourselves. Interested to see what happens on open skies. From memory, country to country open skies were limited (Netherlands, other maybe). A return to bilateral would be unfortunate but would benefit the old and tired legacy European airlines (AF-KLM, Alitalia I'm looking at you). I suspect that we'll see less Ryanair and WizzAir flights. EZY, unclear. It will probably work out but vested interests could easily come out to play. Still, restructuring a tend to be well compensated. Airlines dont collapse enough in Europe (cf c.11 in the US).
Perhaps employment will change. I don't know enough about the interaction between national and supranational law there.
Lots to consider.
bollocks - it was remains' job to implement leaves promises....
I'm looking forward to proposing abolishing bad weather, the common cold, 10 more bank holidays a month and Piers Morgan in a future referendum despite what the establishment and their experts may say!! They can then sort it out for me when I righteously win as surely I will.
kle4 makes a good point on people remembering how they voted - it's worth keeping in mind in future polls. People tend to think they voted in accordance with what they think now, covering up embarrassing past votes.
Experts were wrong once again.
Which begs the question, when were the experts ever right?
What can be negotiated more quickly is the end state for the various big ticket items - borders, immigration, free market access etc.
Yes, EU rules would remain in place until they were removed, using legislation, as part of the deal.
The alternative - sit there while a sub-commitee of a sub-committe on the coordination of Avian Pet Sales within the EU comes out with the 33rd draft of the trade rules for EU-UK sales of parakeets - is not going to be a big seller to many people....
@SamCoatesTimes: Half a dozen companies planning to float or issue debt have abandoned their plans because of Brexit https://t.co/Tt86oekF0j
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/746742188374134784
https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Hannan has basically run away from every single thing he's said for the last 2 years.
So have the government got a plan for Brexit, or were they making that bit up?
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf
Edited to add link.
https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/746417191847813120
@bbclaurak: Source close to Angela Eagle says she is 'desperately worried Labour is failing to connect with communities across the country'
@rowenamason: Is Angela Eagle staying because she needs to keep her NEC seat for any impending rule change battle?
I like Dublin and Ireland a lot and have spent a lot of time working there but it's not a easy slam dunk. FFM on the other hand....
Could affect other eurozone markets too.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/07/alastair-meeks-on-how-conservative-leavers-could-gift-labour-the-next-election/
NEXT!
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan
The question is will there be a Labour party left after Jeremy's scorched earth strategy.
Stop messing about and get on with it you twats.
Seems rather precipitate to me.
They are quivering in fright at the prospect of their project unravelling before them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOeYPpOblAw
Something to stiffen your upper lips
http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es
I also agree it would be astonishing if the civil service hadn't done prep work for Brexit...
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
The one I linked to is the one I've been following for ages.
https://twitter.com/b0redinbucks/status/746847561504391168