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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    stodge said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: You can be leader of the Labour party without any frontbench support. But you can't be leader of the opposition without a shadow cabinet

    More seriously, I believe it would be possible for Corbyn to be leader of the Labour Party and for someone else to be leader of the PLP.
    Seems almost dishonest for a leader, who is in parliament, to essentially say someone else should be PM from within their party, as the leader in parliament is who that would have to be.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jonathan said:

    If Labour can get a leader who has even a passing acquaintance with reality, I'll be voting for them.

    pay £3
    My immediate reaction was "no way" but my second reaction was "why not?". I'd at least be casting my vote for the right reasons.

    Come on - do it!

    I need to give it further thought. I'm not one of life's joiners of parties.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,384

    They seem a little detached from their referendum electorate's expectations.
    OK, let me get this straight. Leave can't guarantee to bring immigration down
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zfw9m
    and they won't give £350million/week or anything like it to the NHS
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/
    They won on a pack of lies!
    ..and they don't have a clue, in terms of governance or economics, what they are doing.
    No wonder we’ve got Regrexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,850
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight?
    Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck.
    The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility.
    I would not be surprised if it is put back

    Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
    IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
    The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.

    The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.

    You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
    That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
    Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
    The OP isn't being very fair on east London. Woodford almost certainly went solidly for remain, given that Redbridge as a whole was remain and the west side of the Borugh is the most middle class bit. And neither Loughton nor Theydon Bois are in London to begin with.....
    Woodford is the right side of the M11 and therefore would be included in London-Remainia.

    Thinking about it the M11 is clearly the right point to make the distinction between LR and the rest, as it enables the Central Line out to Theydon Bois.

    The big question is whether the London-Remainia would want to be in the Common Travel Area or Schengen.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 965
    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited June 2016
    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I would be absolutely disgusted if Remainers collectively flounce off and let Leave take ownership of the negotiations. It was chilling of Carswell (who I quite like in a way) to be saying on Newsnight yesterday that the negotiations would have to be overseen by Gove, Boris and Grayling. Why? It should be overseen by the government. Who will that be lead by? We don't know. Even better would be for us to have a general election in which the parties can pitch what their stance would be after invoking Article 50.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,850
    stodge said:

    JohnO said:


    Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?

    It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.

    It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.

    There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).

    Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.

    Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.

    Scotland would not be required to join Schengen, as the Treaties state that all countries need to be a member of Schengen or the Common Travel Area.
  • FAO MODERATORS

    A start discussion button has appeared at the top of the page on vanillaforums in desktop mode.

    Clicking on it adds a discussion which is then visible on vanilla after I log out.

    Looks like a system error.

    Discussion is labelled as Test.

    Assume you will want to remove this and sort the system issue?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    Jonathan said:

    If Labour can get a leader who has even a passing acquaintance with reality, I'll be voting for them.

    pay £3
    My immediate reaction was "no way" but my second reaction was "why not?". I'd at least be casting my vote for the right reasons.

    Come on - do it!

    I need to give it further thought. I'm not one of life's joiners of parties.
    Don't be like Tom Baker refusing to do the " Five Doctors " anniversary special. This is an emergency !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ROFLMAO

    @georgeeaton: Diane Abbott promised post of shadow foreign secretary, Labour source tells me. https://t.co/u6n1T9WUHU
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    I'm

    Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
    Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.

    Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
    There are more and more...... not many, but an increasing number ..... of suggestions that the Referendum was “only advisory”. Whether Parliament deciding that was the case woul;d cause even more hullaballoo........
    I'd say it would! It's true, and they have the power, but how many even Remainer MPs think it would be better for them to declare that, lose their seats and not prevent an exit, rather than reluctantly accept the will of the people? Even trying to have a second referendum, which if Remain one would mean both options received democratic approval, would be a hard sell to any MPs at present (I'm expecting when the debate on the petition happens for a lot of 'not a bad idea, but too late now' with the occasional 'would be a travesty against democracy' stuff)

    Farron has nothing to lose, however - yes, 30% of LD voters went for Brexit, but even if they held on to most of their current voters the might lose a few seats next time too, and if there is a snap GE, maybe if the Tories or Labour are split there's more they can gain by being all in on Regretexit.
    The Referendum was advisory not mandatory, that's a simple fact.
    https://next.ft.com/content/5b82031e-1056-31e1-8e0e-4e91774e27f1
    I would not however advise any politician to just ignore the will of (just over half) the people.
    The only way the referendum could be set aside is by a General Election being won by an anti Brexit pro EU party or coalition of parties. That would obviously trump the referendum.
    As it becomes clearer that Brexit's main claims (reduction of immigration and £350m/week to NHS) were bogus and as the two main parties change their leaders it becomes valid to call for such a General Election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Lucy Powell and Gloria de Piero set to quit their posts too today
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,940

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    Look on the bright side SO, Brexit has thrown all the pieces into the air and lots of new chances arise. The old they have nowhere else to go theme is dead. Politicans now have to take their electors vews on board.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jonathan said:

    If Labour can get a leader who has even a passing acquaintance with reality, I'll be voting for them.

    pay £3
    My immediate reaction was "no way" but my second reaction was "why not?". I'd at least be casting my vote for the right reasons.

    Come on - do it!

    I need to give it further thought. I'm not one of life's joiners of parties.
    Don't be like Tom Baker refusing to do the " Five Doctors " anniversary special. This is an emergency !
    That is the most unlikely metaphor I have ever heard!

    I'm going to think it over for a day or two.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Lucy Powell and Gloria de Piero set to quit their posts too today

    A nation mourns...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,219
    Ironically, it looks now to be immigration, rather than economics, that will be the massive albatross around Leave's neck. The economics will still be significant, of course, but the divisiveness of the campaign, the emotional content of the subject and a stabbing sense of being manipulated could turn the public mood against Leave in no time. This could get messy.

    They seem a little detached from their referendum electorate's expectations.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    No. Had we lost we'd be licking our wounds and getting on with life. The Remainers are frothing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Missed the camera switch there then
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Lucy Powell and Gloria de Piero set to quit their posts too today

    Political heavyweights!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,850

    FAO MODERATORS

    A start discussion button has appeared at the top of the page on vanillaforums in desktop mode.

    Clicking on it adds a discussion which is then visible on vanilla after I log out.

    Looks like a system error.

    Discussion is labelled as Test.

    Assume you will want to remove this and sort the system issue?

    Thanks Paul: I think this is a Vanilla bug but will check
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Bloody hell. Can we not have one day to focus on the sport . Wow.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    ROFLMAO

    @georgeeaton: Diane Abbott promised post of shadow foreign secretary, Labour source tells me. https://t.co/u6n1T9WUHU

    To be fair Jezza is having to fish for replacements in a very shallow pond.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486

    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.

    I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?

    The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now.

    It's the problem Nicola Sturgeon is running into - an independent Scotland can apply to join the EU but it wouldn't be on the same terms as the former UK membership. No opt outs, no rebates, the Euro and Schengen would be mandatory.

    The EU needs to decide how to play this and here's the problem. If they play soft and the UK gets a "velvet divorce", it will encourage others to believe it won't be so bad to leave. Play hardball and we all suffer. I suspect the delay in invoking Article 50 is mutually beneficial as it gives both the EU and the UK time to think.

    There's also the awkward truth that France elects a new President next year and Germany has a federal election also next year so the mood music during the Article 50 negotiations may change somewhat if new forces take over in Paris and Berlin.


    Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
    It really depends on when the election is held and whether article 50 has been triggered by then.
    If Cameron doesn't trigger article 50, and I don't think he will, and if the new Tory leader calls a GE (a few Tory rebels could also cause this) then in won't be so much going back in as not actually leaving that will be the GE question. A GE result would easily trump an advisory referendum. The people will have spoken (again).
    I have no doubt at all that any new Tory leader will trigger Article 50 before any new General Election.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    tlg86 said:

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    No. Had we lost we'd be licking our wounds and getting on with life. The Remainers are frothing.
    What about this:
    http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/remember-that-time-nigel-farage-said-52-48-votes-should-lead-to-second-referendum-5963900/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,549
    Scott_P said:

    Moses_ said:

    That's being "showered" with cash that we actually gave to the EU in the first place only for them to pass some of it back telling us where to spend it.

    Why are you still peddling that nonsense?

    You won!
    And I think he will find that this is how taxation works generally...
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    tlg86 said:

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    No. Had we lost we'd be licking our wounds and getting on with life. The Remainers are frothing.
    That's fanciful, I'm afraid. The talkboards would be full of talk of treachery, establishment conspiracy, even threats of unrest. That would fit with was threatened all over the web the day before the vote, when it looked like a Remain.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Expect sterling and the markets to fall this week.

    It's the uncertainty that's going to be the driver. The experts will be proven right as the cost of living soars, holiday money diminishes and the number of foreigners increase.

    The combination of xenophobia, economic hardship and deceit is a very nasty cocktail. Boris and co will be fully responsible for this.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    tlg86 said:

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    No. Had we lost we'd be licking our wounds and getting on with life. The Remainers are frothing.
    That's fanciful, I'm afraid. The talkboards would be full of talk of treachery, establishment conspiracy, even threats of unrest. That would fit with was threatened all over the web the day before the vote, when it looked like a Remain.
    with *what* was threatened.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    CD13 said:

    This could be deadly for the Tories. Labour end up with an electable leader and they vote for an unelectable one.

    So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.

    Quite. The crass stupidity and lack of forethought of the right wing of the Tory party in all its shining glory.
    We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around.
    I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.

    Cameron was going anyway before 2020.

    That's irrelevant. He was an election winner. People liked/like him. Put it another. An election this autumn is called. Which Tory MP would you like leading the party and who would most likely win. Here's a clue....if the answers not Cameron your a. Stupid. And b. Wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.

    2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    Look on the bright side SO, Brexit has thrown all the pieces into the air and lots of new chances arise. The old they have nowhere else to go theme is dead. Politicans now have to take their electors vews on board.

    It's exciting, I'll concede that :-)

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009

    tlg86 said:

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    No. Had we lost we'd be licking our wounds and getting on with life. The Remainers are frothing.
    What about this:
    http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/remember-that-time-nigel-farage-said-52-48-votes-should-lead-to-second-referendum-5963900/
    And we'd be ignoring him. For sure, we'd be continuing to point out the EU's failings, but we wouldn't be contesting the legitimacy of the vote in the way the BBC and the establishment are.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Ironically, it looks now to be immigration, rather than economics, that will be the massive albatross around Leave's neck. The economics will still be significant, of course, but the divisiveness of the campaign, the emotional content of the subject and a stabbing sense of being manipulated could turn the public mood against Leave in no time. This could get messy.


    They seem a little detached from their referendum electorate's expectations.
    Unfortunately, I think that may be right. They have only themselves to blame, though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232

    Would Marr be giving this "deeply divided country" piece if Remain had won 51-49? Nah...

    Something similar, I would bet - no one could deny we would be deeply divided in that case, though the tone might be different I imagine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,850
    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,219
    I think this was Boris's plan.

    Back Leave.

    Remain wins but Dave is ousted by his bitter and vengeful back-benchers.

    Boris gets leadership as a Leaver, but we've Remained anyway so no urgent problems.

    Boris believes his good-egg bonhomie can easily counter Corbyn's humourless blundering.

    We'll it hasn't gone quite like that. And if Labour elect someone forensic Boris could be dangerously exposed.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Polytwaddle on Marr
    "75% of the young voted to Remain"

    Err ... No. it was more like 75% of the 35% that bothered to vote.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009
    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.

    2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
    I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    This is looking perilous for the Tories - the Leave faction in particular. They bet the farm on Corbyn's staying in place and assumed they'd subsequently romp home whatever they f*cked around doing. If Labour gets someone decent and rallies to them, and the post-Brexit consequences are only half as bad as people are fearing, then the 2020 electoral carnage will make 1997 look sub-optimal.

    Didn't the Referendum demonstrate that Labour don't have "someone half decent"? They're all a bit crap.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Tricky because Labour probably won't win an overall majority. Would numbers let the SNP, LibDems and a Green support Labour long enough to cancel Brexit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited June 2016

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    I'm

    Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
    Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.

    Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
    There are more and more...... not many, but an increasing number ..... of suggestions that the Referendum was “only advisory”. Whether Parliament deciding that was the case woul;d cause even more hullaballoo........
    I'd sit.
    The Referendum was advisory not mandatory, that's a simple fact.
    https://next.ft.com/content/5b82031e-1056-31e1-8e0e-4e91774e27f1
    I would not however advise any politician to just ignore the will of (just over half) the people.
    The only way the referendum could be set aside is by a General Election being won by an anti Brexit pro EU party or coalition of parties. That would obviously trump the referendum.
    As it becomes clearer that Brexit's main claims (reduction of immigration and £350m/week to NHS) were bogus and as the two main parties change their leaders it becomes valid to call for such a General Election.
    That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?

    Con - No
    LD - Looks like it
    Lab - No, too divided
    Greens - Possibly
    PC - who cares
    DUP - No
    UUP - IDK, probably not
    SDLP - No
    UKIP - No
    SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want

    Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
    Technically yes, the British can delay for as long as they like. EU decisions in the meantime probably won't be working out to Britain's advantage, though.

    And assuming the Tories are still able to operate a government from October, the power to pull the lever is theirs.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,809
    It seems to me that the only possible outcome here is a Labour split.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    Osborne doubled down on the bet by pre-announcing a punitive budget.

    that Boris's new chancellor will now have to deliver
    Boris might be the new chancellor.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,549
    rcs1000 said:



    The sterling falls will undoubtably be utterly ruinous in much the same way as they were after Black Wednesday in 1992..oh wait

    There is a fundamental difference between Black Wednesday and now: in 1992 we were running only a very modest current accound deficit - c. 1.5% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2015, we were north of 7%. We also had consumer and government debt that were massively lower then as a percentage of GDP.
    Precisely right. But it isn't the short-run gyrations in the markets that matter; rather it is whether the shock to our fragile economy sets off an insidious viscious circle of disinvestment, falling tax revenues, inflation and unemployment. Will be months before we can tell.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    I think this was Boris's plan.

    Back Leave.

    Remain wins but Dave is ousted by his bitter and vengeful back-benchers.

    Boris gets leadership as a Leaver, but we've Remained anyway so no urgent problems.

    Boris believes his good-egg bonhomie can easily counter Corbyn's humourless blundering.

    We'll it hasn't gone quite like that. And if Labour elect someone forensic Boris could be dangerously exposed.

    Yup. I remember thinking during one of the tv debates that he didn't believe any of it. A strange look of distance and discomfort.
  • Anyone thinking about paying £3 to boot Jezzer out should do it now. The NEC has no plan to impose a cut off point on registration as far as I know, but they have the power to and the shortsightedness.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    This was not about the EU. This was about immigrants, anti-politics and a general feeling of malaise. Were any real substantive EU issues discussed? No!

    The masses are pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeK said:

    A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.

    Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I. :)
    How many of the Labour 'supporters' who got Corbyn elected are still members I wonder.
    Easy enough to find another 3 quid :-)

    Why not stump up too? This is more important than party politics.

    I voted for Liz Kendall last time, will pay my £3 again.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,263
    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    If Labour stood on that manifesto it would lose Sunderland, Stoke, Hull, Hartlepool, the South Wales Valleys, Salford, Heywood and Middleton, Wigan etc. I don't think they'd gain many seats in the Stockbroker Belt to compensate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,549

    From the Sun:
    Project smear:
    Boris Johnson hit by revenge plot as PM loyalists take aim at his turbulent private life

    Allies of David Cameron coming at PM-in-waiting with simple message: You've killed off the PM, we'll get you

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1342796/boris-johnson-hit-by-revenge-plot-as-pm-loyalists-take-aim-at-his-turbulent-private-life/


    Because project smear just worked so well in the referendum?
    no need to attack his private life, just attack him for lacking in principle.. should be enough to do for his political ambition.
    I actually think it is quite possible that his political career is now finished. There are just too many powerful and influential people (inside and outside politics) who utterly despise him. I think his subdued demeanour on Friday can be accounted for by his own realisation of this.
    Whilst I would love to think you are right, I suspect his demeanour was that of someone who had been pissing out of a train window and suddenly realised the consequences....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
    Technically yes, the British can delay for as long as they like. EU decisions in the meantime probably won't be working out to Britain's advantage, though.

    And assuming the Tories are still able to operate a government from October, the power to pull the lever is theirs.
    That might be our first problem: ensuring Britain receives its "fair share" of grants and other payments while we are still in the EU, albeit semi-detached.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Tricky because Labour probably won't win an overall majority. Would numbers let the SNP, LibDems and a Green support Labour long enough to cancel Brexit?
    It's not clear that the EU would want a constant psycho drama of is the UK in or out?

    The EU stock markets took a bigger hit than FTSE the day after the Referendum result.

    The UK leaving the EU gives them an opportunity to focus on the Eurozone rather than the EU, which is presumably what they'd prefer to do.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited June 2016

    Scott_P said:

    Osborne doubled down on the bet by pre-announcing a punitive budget.

    that Boris's new chancellor will now have to deliver
    Boris might be the new chancellor.
    LOL!! We are truly fucked then.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.

    There will be a cut in immigration.

    The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
    So where will they emigrate to?
    There is always a substantial flow in both directions. The net flw will shift considerably, particularly the more skilled migrants.

    Fox jr is looking at working in the Gulf for example.
    What price will you give me that a year from today the population of the UK is higher than it is now?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    Referenda are advisory, we are a parliamentary democracy. They are only ever used to get politicians off political hooks.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    murali_s said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    This was not about the EU. This was about immigrants, anti-politics and a general feeling of malaise. Were any real substantive EU issues discussed? No!

    The masses are pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU.
    Yeah, and on anti-politics and the feeling of economic malaise, the Labour "moderates" are further away from the public mood than Corbyn is. They are both equally far away from the public mood on immigration ("moderates" who want to stay in the EU have a policy of high immigration, no matter how much meaningless waffle they throw in about "understanding people's concerns").
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    MikeK said:

    A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.

    Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I. :)
    How many of the Labour 'supporters' who got Corbyn elected are still members I wonder.
    Easy enough to find another 3 quid :-)

    Why not stump up too? This is more important than party politics.

    I voted for Liz Kendall last time, will pay my £3 again.
    If you're voting for Liz Kendall, I wouldn't bother.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''We'll it hasn't gone quite like that. And if Labour elect someone forensic Boris could be dangerously exposed.''

    If Boris and Gove can get the tory back benchers, then I don;t imagine MPs such as Gisella, Kate Hoey, Field and John Mann standing in their way for a couple of years.

    In 2020 all bets will be off, of course.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Omnium said:

    It seems to me that the only possible outcome here is a Labour split.

    Its already split..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,047
    Can someone please do a précis of the events since 2.30am?

    Anyone else resigned ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.

    2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
    I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
    "Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"

    More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Tricky because Labour probably won't win an overall majority. Would numbers let the SNP, LibDems and a Green support Labour long enough to cancel Brexit?
    It's not clear that the EU would want a constant psycho drama of is the UK in or out?

    The EU stock markets took a bigger hit than FTSE the day after the Referendum result.

    The UK leaving the EU gives them an opportunity to focus on the Eurozone rather than the EU, which is presumably what they'd prefer to do.
    The falls were similar (you need to factor in currency moves as well(.

  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Danny565 said:

    murali_s said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    This was not about the EU. This was about immigrants, anti-politics and a general feeling of malaise. Were any real substantive EU issues discussed? No!

    The masses are pretty agnostic when it comes to the EU.
    Yeah, and on anti-politics and the feeling of economic malaise, the Labour "moderates" are further away from the public mood than Corbyn is. They are both equally far away from the public mood on immigration.
    I agree with this. Unless the replacement is closer to McDonnell than Liz Kendall, they're equally in trouble, I think.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Omnium said:

    It seems to me that the only possible outcome here is a Labour split.

    How about a new political party to take on Labour in the North at the next GE? There's a market for it.

    I don't think the Labour of Watson, Balls, Cooper, Hunt et al fit the bill - they can't reverse-ferret with any credibility. Nor do I think UKIP could fill it. Open-door Corbyn certainly doesn't. Better to create a new Party and effectively merge Old Labour and northern UKIP?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    If Labour stood on that manifesto it would lose Sunderland, Stoke, Hull, Hartlepool, the South Wales Valleys, Salford, Heywood and Middleton, Wigan etc. I don't think they'd gain many seats in the Stockbroker Belt to compensate.
    The fantasy idea from some Labour "moderates" of basing a strategy on uniting Remain voters is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard.

    The likes of Mole Valley and Guildford are not voting Labour ever, no matter what.
  • Moses_ said:

    Polytwaddle on Marr
    "75% of the young voted to Remain"

    Err ... No. it was more like 75% of the 35% that bothered to vote.

    Polly think 59% isn't enough to win a referendum. I blame the schools.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,384
    edited June 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    Referenda are advisory, we are a parliamentary democracy. They are only ever used to get politicians off political hooks.
    Doesn’t work all the time though, does it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232

    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    Referenda are advisory, we are a parliamentary democracy. They are only ever used to get politicians off political hooks.
    I think the point is a government elected on 30% would find it difficult to not hold a referendum on the issue rather than just do it, even though they would have the legal power. The pressure would be enormous and their majority tenuous - some of their number, despite being elected on that ticket, would be opposed to it.
  • chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204
    kle4 said:



    That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?

    Con - No
    LD - Looks like it
    Lab - No, too divided
    Greens - Possibly
    PC - who cares
    DUP - No
    UUP - IDK, probably not
    SDLP - No
    UKIP - No
    SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want

    Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.

    I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.

    The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
    Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,809
    If there's another Scottish Indyref, and if bits of Scotland - say the residents of an Edinburgh street have voted to stay then surely the SNPs logic means that they should be allowed to have their own little referendum to stay in the UK.

    It seems many people have forgotten what a democracy is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.

    2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
    I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
    "Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"

    More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
    I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,549
    Moses_ said:

    You have to hand it to Labour and Corbyn. The most dramatic totemic shift in the political situation within the UK since WW2 has just occurred and they manage to get all the Sunday shows talking about a bloodbath in the Labour Party.

    Respect ....

    They've spent two months with the Tories crowding them out of 96% of media coverage and have finally found an answer.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Can someone please do a précis of the events since 2.30am?

    Anyone else resigned ?

    Heidi Alexander
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John Kerry flying over next week. Brexit now officially a global crisis.

    Awesome
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MikeK said:

    A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.

    Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I. :)
    How many of the Labour 'supporters' who got Corbyn elected are still members I wonder.
    Easy enough to find another 3 quid :-)

    Why not stump up too? This is more important than party politics.

    I voted for Liz Kendall last time, will pay my £3 again.
    If you're voting for Liz Kendall, I wouldn't bother.
    I don't expect her to stand again.

    She would have been a far better leader than Jezza though.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009
    Scott_P said:

    John Kerry flying over next week. Brexit now officially a global crisis.

    Awesome

    If the Yanks had cared they could have got involved earlier and told the EU to give us a good deal. A bit too late to be crying now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ITVAllegra: Labour coup: shad cab resignations this am, Council leaders resign later today, front bench tomo. Councillors too. Tom Watson in place. 1/
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Away this weekend but wow! Jezza should threaten the nuclear option and mention events on a certain road that would bring down the tory and labour parties and many mp's. My friend told him and his office all about it shortly after he became leader. Go on Jezza!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
    The key point. Labour can ignore them further if they wish, but they won't win an election off the back of doing so.

    A 'stay in' government, assuming for a moment the SNP care about preventing a Brexit and can make that easier, which they don't, would have to come from a new party sweeping the cities and the south, winning over the areas only slightly for Leave, since neither the Tories or Labour will stand on that platform. Or the LDs would need to win 300 seats.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,009

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
    Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
    We are through the looking glass. The people have just voted to leave the EU. If Labour campaigns to ignore that vote, Ukip could clean up.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Moses_ said:

    You have to hand it to Labour and Corbyn. The most dramatic totemic shift in the political situation within the UK since WW2 has just occurred and they manage to get all the Sunday shows talking about a bloodbath in the Labour Party.

    Respect ....

    :lol:

    That's what I call cut-through. They should work in PR.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The labour logic seems to be

    Our voters came out in droves for Brexit, so lets get rid of Jeremy for not backing the EU enough...???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    Two issues.

    1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.

    2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
    I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
    "Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"

    More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
    I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
    I don't know that Ken Clarke on his own will be that effective.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,549
    Barnesian said:

    @Moses

    An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:

    "While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.

    In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."

    http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit


    But at least my job is safe. The NHS is going to get an extra £350 million per year. It must be true, I saw it on the side of a bus.

    £350 million a week.
    but in politics a week is actually a long time...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Moses_ said:

    Polytwaddle on Marr
    "75% of the young voted to Remain"

    Err ... No. it was more like 75% of the 35% that bothered to vote.

    Polly think 59% isn't enough to win a referendum. I blame the schools.
    Presumably the context was whether an immediate post Brexit vote poll of 59% for Sindy meant that Sturgeon would win a referendum?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
    Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
    We are through the looking glass. The people have just voted to leave the EU. If Labour campaigns to ignore that vote, Ukip could clean up.
    I think a Leave-lead Conservative Party would be the Leave-vote magnet.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    John Kerry flying over next week. Brexit now officially a global crisis.

    Awesome

    Those f8cking voters eh? if only we could do without them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,753
    hunchman said:

    Away this weekend but wow! Jezza should threaten the nuclear option and mention events on a certain road that would bring down the tory and labour parties and many mp's. My friend told him and his office all about it shortly after he became leader. Go on Jezza!

    What's all this about?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theakes said:

    Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?

    That depends: if Labour stood on that manifesto, and got - say - 40% of the vote, and the LibDems got another 15%, then I think you could make the case that the people had changed their minds.

    On the other hand, if Labour snuck to victory on 30%, which is not impossible if we get UKIP and the Conservatives each on 25%, then I think you would need another referendum.
    If Labour stood on that manifesto it would lose Sunderland, Stoke, Hull, Hartlepool, the South Wales Valleys, Salford, Heywood and Middleton, Wigan etc. I don't think they'd gain many seats in the Stockbroker Belt to compensate.
    Yes - I'd expect a hung parliament with a sizeable UKIP block supporting the Conservatives.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Its already split..

    Do some labour MPs even have a party?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,263

    tlg86 said:

    Danny565 said:

    It's time for all those who want a credible alternative to the Tories to stump up £3 to get one.

    A "credible alternative" who just catastrophically misread the public mood on the EU?
    The public mood was 50:50 (ok 3.8% to one side).
    But not among their voters in the North. I can see Ukip gains across the north if Labour stands to stay in the EU at the General Election.
    Some on here predicted UKIP with 100+ MPs at the last election. Labour may well have a different leader soon. I think that you are mistaken.
    Times have changed. If Labour runs on a manifesto commitment to overturn the Referendum, the outcome across Northern working class towns will be carnage.
  • alex. said:

    Moses_ said:

    Polytwaddle on Marr
    "75% of the young voted to Remain"

    Err ... No. it was more like 75% of the 35% that bothered to vote.

    Polly think 59% isn't enough to win a referendum. I blame the schools.
    Presumably the context was whether an immediate post Brexit vote poll of 59% for Sindy meant that Sturgeon would win a referendum?
    Marr said that to her, but she said Sturgeon needed bigger numbers, as 59% wasn't 'overwhelming'.
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