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  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I still don't think my lot understand what has happened to them...

    How did they not see it coming in spades? I'm a working class Tory and saw it a million miles away.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Merthyr Tydfil — Leave 56%
    Stockton — Leave 62%

    Labour are going to get a fecking pounding next election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    Middlesbrough for Leave - I'm sure Sandy thought that they'd be for Remain.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    surbiton said:

    Problems: Scotland voting heavily for Remain.

    On a low, low turnout.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Leave approaching a 100k lead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,363
    Middlesborough votes Leave, Inverclyde Remain
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Boro even more Leave than Sunderland: 65-35.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Problems: Scotland voting heavily for Remain.

    Seems to me to be less heavily than par predicted.

    Remain is winning theirs by less than par, Leave is winning theirs by more than par.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    viewcode said:
    You do have to wonder about the thought processes he goes through. How can he be so disconnected?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    DearPB said:

    I think it's extraordinary how uninterested in data and detail the BBC thinks it's viewers are. If you're up in the middle of the night then you're a geek.

    It has been the same at 2010 and 2015 GE. The world has changed, twitter, internet, big data and they still run the same show from years ago.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    City slightly better for Remain
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    City and County of the City of London: 3:1 for remain

    Bloody bankers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,363
    City of London 75% Remain
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Wanderer said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wanderer said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC: Birmingham - Remain between 55 and 60

    That's actually good for Remain, if true (vs Hanretty, I mean)
    It's on par. On par will not be good enough for remain.
    Well, Hanretty has Remain 3.6% behind, so it's better than his "par".
    TBH Leave just seem to be getting pounded too hard outside there cities to win.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    SeanT said:

    I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

    I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

    It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

    I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.
    I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.
    Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.
    Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.
    How long are we going to have to wait before you calm down too?
    I'm going to ration my use of "I told you so" in the coming months and years. But not very tightly.
    Be a nice idea if, having lost, you now bring the best of yourself to the new political reality to make it the best possible success.
    This is your fantasy, not mine. You make it work if you can. Don't expect me to write the cheque for it either.

    I look forward to finding out what the plan is at some point.
    Maybe once you've finished your childish strop (you lost, deal with it) we'll hear more from the sensible rational Alastair that still has a huge contribution to make.
    You clearly don't understand that I regard the manner of Leave's victory as a moral disgrace that makes me ashamed to be English. Why on earth would I want to make it work?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Mortimer said:

    Question for counting observers

    In recount, do rejected papers get reconsidered?

    No. There's a separate process for them before the count itself is announced the agents get shown the rejected ballots for them to see and challenge if they want to.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited June 2016
    EEA is not plausible given the nature of the vote, in fact it would be in leave's interest to clamp down on all immigration, as would be expected from its voters. These people have voted for the first time in ages to get that, if they don't then they will take things into their own hands.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    No wonder the finance wizards all were thinking we'd be voting remain - their City bubble was 3-1 remain!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    City of London as expected. 75% Remain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,770
    Tempted to cash in on Leave bets, but something is holding my finger back.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    It's nowhere near being over. I don't understand all the dejection from Remain. This whole situation is just bizarre.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Problems: Scotland voting heavily for Remain.

    Seems to me to be less heavily than par predicted.

    Remain is winning theirs by less than par, Leave is winning theirs by more than par.
    Birmingham ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Weymouth out
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Tom Watson looking very sweaty....
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,402
    DearPB said:

    I think it's extraordinary how uninterested in data and detail the BBC thinks it's viewers are. If you're up in the middle of the night then you're a geek.

    This is the part of the night that Dimbleby starts to lose it...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    My guess is both will be around 56-57%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,735
    Chameleon said:

    Wanderer said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wanderer said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC: Birmingham - Remain between 55 and 60

    That's actually good for Remain, if true (vs Hanretty, I mean)
    It's on par. On par will not be good enough for remain.
    Well, Hanretty has Remain 3.6% behind, so it's better than his "par".
    TBH Leave just seem to be getting pounded too hard outside there cities to win.
    Fact. If the tory shires are below 60 I'll be stunned
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Where's this crossover then?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Did anyone manage to get in on the 16.0 odds from earlier?

    I got some 14
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    rcs1000 said:

    LATEST REUTERS CALCULATION:
    Leave 50.2%, Remain 49.9%
    This is based on 15 areas of 382 reporting and the BBC's most recent figures on the vote in Northern Ireland, which is the largest reporting area by population in the UK.

    I think it'll be 51-52% Leave.

    Scotland on my numbers will be 61% Remain.
    Means either (a) renegotiation part II (b) EEA-EFTA or (c) a looser form of associate membership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,375

    Tempted to cash in on Leave bets, but something is holding my finger back.

    Don't.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    One thing we don't know is how parties have managed the GOTV operations. Apart from Scotland and, perhaps, Newcastle we haven't had any big Remain areas yet. If they have target GOTV on their strong areas then we may start to see some good news for them soon.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    Middlesbrough for Leave - I'm sure Sandy thought that they'd be for Remain.

    65%ish too
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    edited June 2016
    Southend 58% Leave.

    Under par?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    SeanT said:

    I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

    I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

    It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

    I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.
    I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.
    Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.
    Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.
    How long are we going to have to wait before you calm down too?
    I'm going to ration my use of "I told you so" in the coming months and years. But not very tightly.
    Be a nice idea if, having lost, you now bring the best of yourself to the new political reality to make it the best possible success.
    This is your fantasy, not mine. You make it work if you can. Don't expect me to write the cheque for it either.

    I look forward to finding out what the plan is at some point.
    Maybe once you've finished your childish strop (you lost, deal with it) we'll hear more from the sensible rational Alastair that still has a huge contribution to make.
    Please....all the stuff that was levelled at the leave campaign was right. It is going to lead to a lurch right and impoverish our economy. Heh, ho....you've taken control.

  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Holy hell. Tally totals in birmingham (one leave and one remain tally box) indicating like 70%+ Leave!
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Wanderer said:

    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.

    What do they know, specifically - or do they know anything ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    AndyJS said:

    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    My guess is both will be around 56-57%.

    Lower in Brum.

  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    AndyJS said:

    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    My guess is both will be around 56-57%.
    If so, leave will win.

    Birmingham under 56% remain would be champagne moment for BREXIT.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,770
    Scott_P said:

    @georgeeaton: Remain blame game now in full swing - usually a reliable indicator of defeat.

    Of course the basic problem in a referendum is that it involves the voters.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Blaneau 62% out. That's just down the road from me. No turnout.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,363
    Brentwood and Southend vote Leave
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,422
    Lowlander said:

    Holy hell. Tally totals in birmingham (one leave and one remain tally box) indicating like 70%+ Leave!

    That can't be true, surely?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,855

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,357

    SeanT said:

    I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

    I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

    It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

    I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.
    I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.
    Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.
    Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.
    How long are we going to have to wait before you calm down too?
    I'm going to ration my use of "I told you so" in the coming months and years. But not very tightly.
    Be a nice idea if, having lost, you now bring the best of yourself to the new political reality to make it the best possible success.
    This is your fantasy, not mine. You make it work if you can. Don't expect me to write the cheque for it either.

    I look forward to finding out what the plan is at some point.
    Maybe once you've finished your childish strop (you lost, deal with it) we'll hear more from the sensible rational Alastair that still has a huge contribution to make.
    You clearly don't understand that I regard the manner of Leave's victory as a moral disgrace that makes me ashamed to be English. Why on earth would I want to make it work?
    I share Alastair's views but it isn't about not wanting to make it work - the chaos that is coming is probably unmanageable and, even were it manageable, the motley crew of leavers amongst whom Boris, Gove and IDS are the sane ones is not going to be able to do so.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    AndyJS said:

    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    My guess is both will be around 56-57%.
    And Leeds and Sheffield sound likely to counter that.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wanderer said:

    Chameleon said:

    Wanderer said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC: Birmingham - Remain between 55 and 60

    That's actually good for Remain, if true (vs Hanretty, I mean)
    It's on par. On par will not be good enough for remain.
    Well, Hanretty has Remain 3.6% behind, so it's better than his "par".
    TBH Leave just seem to be getting pounded too hard outside there cities to win.
    Fact. If the tory shires are below 60 I'll be stunned
    I'm really interested in Oxfordshire, I sense that it should go remain, but if it is close then there will have been a large shy leaver effect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    City slightly better for Remain

    1% better on my figures.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,735
    John_M said:

    tpfkar said:

    Watch Birmingham and Liverpool. If they are really heading to 60% remain, that will bring remain a lot closer to par than they are at the moment

    It's nowhere near being over. I don't understand all the dejection from Remain. This whole situation is just bizarre.
    Because it is over.

    78% turnout in wiltshiee
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,770

    If Corbyn had backed Leave, he would have owned this result.

    Muppet.

    Don't start on the muppets; fine people.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Tom Watson looking very sweaty....

    I've never seen someone look so consistently in need of a good wash. He always looks greasy.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Thrak said:

    EEA is not plausible given the nature of the vote, in fact it would be in leave's interest to clamp down on all immigration, as would be expected from its voters. These people have voted for the first time in ages to get that, if they don't then they will take things into their own hamds.

    But that is not the reason I voted for Leave, Mr Thrak.

    Nobody knows the reasons for any particular vote on either side. Cameron should have asked a more precise question.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Tempted to cash in on Leave bets, but something is holding my finger back.

    Top up. it is free money now
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Swansea goes out!!!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    Holy hell. Tally totals in birmingham (one leave and one remain tally box) indicating like 70%+ Leave!

    That can't be true, surely?
    It can.

    And don't call him Shirley.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,810
    tlg86 said:

    Middlesbrough for Leave - I'm sure Sandy thought that they'd be for Remain.

    I did - and Stockton too!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579

    Southend 58% Leave.

    Under par?

    I think so - this still feels really close.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Swansea for LEAVE!!!

    Port Talbot Steelworks territory. ... fecking hell.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Curtice - Leave above par in far more areas than Remain.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Swansea. - IN 58,307 - OUT 61,936
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling just tanked a cent to 1.45
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,022
    City of London has beaten par for Remain. Tiny, but may indicate Remain doing better than expected in London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,363
    Leave 53% Remain 47%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wanderer said:

    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.

    How many people have in hindsight here talked about how slow the market was to react away from No Overall Majority last year and how much they made based on that?

    If I gambled I'd be betting big on Leave right now, it should be odds-on.
  • 1.65 remain
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    pbr2013 said:

    Leave approaching a 100k lead.

    137k now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,716
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    City slightly better for Remain

    1% better on my figures.
    It's an irrelevancy.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    tlg86 said:

    Southend 58% Leave.

    Under par?

    I think so - this still feels really close.
    Feels really close to me as well. Taking nothing for granted yet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: David Davis just suggested shorting sterling, not exactly the Leave message!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: David Davis just suggested shorting sterling, not exactly the Leave message!

    There is no Leave message, the campaign is over.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Swansea. - IN 58,307 - OUT 61,936

    Doesn't feel a great leave result to me?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Peter Bone'e Wellingborough 62% Leave.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    SeanT said:

    I'm touched by those who have been asking after me. I've been packing to flee the country tomorrow.

    I have, however, found time to keep backing Leave at regular intervals tonight. The prices are incomprehensible.

    It will provide some minor compensation for having my country torn away from me.

    I'm relieved that you agree on the prices - I thought I must be going mad.
    I'd not put too much at stake on this referendum till tonight but I'm rapidly rethinking what it is appropriate to commit.
    Best bet is to move to Jobbik's Hungary, mate. Where they are more cosmopolitan.
    Enjoy your evening. Tonight is a night for Leavers to exult. The lunatics are taking over the asylum. We shall have to hope against all logic that it sort of works out ok.
    How long are we going to have to wait before you calm down too?
    I'm going to ration my use of "I told you so" in the coming months and years. But not very tightly.
    Be a nice idea if, having lost, you now bring the best of yourself to the new political reality to make it the best possible success.
    This is your fantasy, not mine. You make it work if you can. Don't expect me to write the cheque for it either.

    I look forward to finding out what the plan is at some point.
    Maybe once you've finished your childish strop (you lost, deal with it) we'll hear more from the sensible rational Alastair that still has a huge contribution to make.
    You clearly don't understand that I regard the manner of Leave's victory as a moral disgrace that makes me ashamed to be English. Why on earth would I want to make it work?
    Let's talk when you've calmed down, perhaps privately.

    We are both English. Both sides need to do some reflecting on the campaigns they ran but for Remain to lose when it was 25-30% ahead months ago and had the whole UK and Global establishment heavily lined up for it holds some very powerful lesson as well.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,903
    Now Betfair's moving...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,770
    Blaenau Gwent goes Leave
  • 1.77 remain
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    City slightly better for Remain

    1% better on my figures.
    It's an irrelevancy.
    Shussssh, don't let Charles hear you say that!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    stjohn said:

    Now Betfair's moving...

    AFT
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Leave is winning almost everywhere in England (albeit we don't have metropolitan areas yet).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,716
    Very close to cross over on Betfair
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Posh Brentwood has voted Leave 60%.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    hunchman said:

    Swansea. - IN 58,307 - OUT 61,936

    Doesn't feel a great leave result to me?
    It is - Swansea was expected to vote remain by about the same margin.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    viewcode said:
    You do have to wonder about the thought processes he goes through. How can he be so disconnected?

    Wife. Pension.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    hunchman said:

    Swansea. - IN 58,307 - OUT 61,936

    Doesn't feel a great leave result to me?
    Henretty had it 56-44 for Remain
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    NEW THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Bury: 54% Leave.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Crossover on Betfair!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,770
    stjohn said:

    Now Betfair's moving...

    Wow - really moving
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    CROSSOVER ON BETFAIR!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: David Davis just suggested shorting sterling, not exactly the Leave message!

    Oh fuck, please tell me he's not back?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,903
    Leave favourite! Flip flop!
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Crossover
  • Cashed out. +£5oo remain, +£1500 leave. Really think Remain might whisker this. Too stressful!

    OK Bury and Swansea results are changing my mind.
  • Leave move into odds on. HElls BELLs!!!!
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Crossover where the hell are the buyers
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Betfair 63% implied prob Leave. Pound below $1.41 and falling fast.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,375
    timmo said:

    Crossover where the hell are the buyers

    Nowhere.
  • Many thanks to pong, got £12 matched at 21 on the 40-45 remain score. Covered my bailout losses on remain win. Britain may well have rediscovered its backbone! Can't believe it, so so pleased!
This discussion has been closed.