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New @OpiniumResearch #EUref Remain 44% (nc) Leave: 44% (+2). Fieldwork almost all of it conducted before the murder of Jo Cox
Comments
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First!
Two in a row
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Second like Arsenal next season.0
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Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...0
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I'm off, for at least 5 minutes.
Bye.0 -
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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For those of you who like American newsertainment, you might like "Britain Might Leave the European Union: A Closer Look" from "Late Night with Seth Meyers"0
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No, he's just another Gordon Brown.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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Worth pointing out plenty of people thought Remain would get some swing back in the final week before this latest tragedy, and that there were very big swings to Leave, so some pushback is not that unexpected, so I believe that top tweet.0
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Disgraceful headline - using her death for remain cause,just awful.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/744283164697333760
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Superb, yougov have put their tables up
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/eu-referendum-remain-lead-one/0 -
The Day The Polls Turned, ahem0
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If there has been a shift in the last week then it can probably be put down to two things (combined with undecideds beginning to crystallise their intentions).TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
1) debate switched from immigration to the economy (that's what Osborne's budget did)
2) immigration focus becoming less of a slam dunk campaign issue in the light of Jo Cox's murder0 -
Leave out to 3.150
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The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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51-49 either way on the day.0
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Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
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Osborne -64 on trust with YouGov. Scaling new heights.0
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Always funny.viewcode said:For those of you who like American newsertainment, you might like "Britain Might Leave the European Union: A Closer Look" from "Late Night with Seth Meyers"
What is interesting about these polls is I wonder what effect it will have on the day.
I have already said that according to Laura Kunsberg there are 10 millions leavers who will walk across hot coals, through snow storms and eathquakes to vote leave and 5 million enthusiastic remainers.
Who knows how these polls will affect differential turnout.
I also note that it did not take long for Cameron to get in and lower the tone to the sort of nasty school yard taunting he seems to think works. Tw*t.0 -
I don't mind Osborne myself but I will vote Remain however I spoke to my father tonight who is a lifelong Tory voter and backs Leave and he said he will never vote Tory again while Cameron and Osborne are in charge!TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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Hello... you called...TheScreamingEagles said:The Day The Polls Turned, ahem
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Gordon Brown has also delivered this week, like he did in the Scottish Ref. At the end of the day leave need some strength and depth...they have neither in these coming days.BenedictWhite said:
No, he's just another Gordon Brown.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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I commend all 3 of these to other readers, on the nature of our debate
In my twenty-six years in this country, I have never felt more foreign, less welcome, more marginalised, or less safe. I am not alone. Hundreds of migrants I speak to feel this way. I spend every minute of every day trying to justify my existence, against a wall of blind hatred. It is that hatred that killed Jo Cox. And we all must look into our conscience and answer the question: "Have I contributed"?
I know I have. I have been terrified, unreasonable, rude, hateful and superior on so many occasions to so many people. I have refused to acknowledge opposing points of view. Created an echo-chamber of validation. My mind has been closed and my heart full of antagonism.
That is not to say we are all equal contributors to the toxic atmosphere which surrounds us, however. I am a banged-up car, fuming. There are others who are power stations churning out noxious gasses.
Read more at:https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/1109
It seems there's something about the winner-takes-all, "once in a lifetime" nature of referendums that encourages the worst in political campaigners. But the people who should take the blame for this are not just those who stoop to using the cheapest language and most offensive rhetoric. Also to blame are those on both sides who stand by and let it happen, those who tolerate appalling behaviour from their own, those who turn a blind-eye to the rise of the malignant far right for fear of getting involved.
We all share blame, whether through our action or our inaction.
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-blame-game.html
And this
https://lokithescottishrapper.com/2016/06/17/trigger-warning-taking-responsibility-for-your-part-in-this-divided-society/0 -
Quite - many voters will take the view that when one campaign goes to town on a campaigning message of the other then it is because they fear it has credibility. They think if a campaigning message is preposterous they shouldn't need the other campaign to tell them that.kle4 said:
Sounds preposterous, but apparently the most criticised Leave stuff was also the most effective, so maybe.alex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
Modern political campaigning for you. Perverse and ridiculous.
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Thing is, he is supposed to be good at being a chancellor. He isn't. He's mediocre at being a schemer.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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I might reuse my piece from the other day, replete with that front page but update it with tonight's polls.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Hello... you called...TheScreamingEagles said:The Day The Polls Turned, ahem
I will course use that analogy as well.0 -
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.0 -
He's not that good.BenedictWhite said:
No, he's just another Gordon Brown.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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I know its just a sub sample of 182 and therefore has only comic validity but the Scottish cross break of Comres has Labo0ur FOURTH equal with UKIP on 8 per cent. - SNP 53, TORY17,LIB DEMS 9!!!!!!0
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Survation = outlier
YouGov = another outlier 0 -
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.0 -
Osbourne is dead meat. Whetever the result. In the last month I have not met anyone who doesnt despise him.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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Undeniable swing to Remain, which is a pity. Not sure about the plaudits for Osborne though.
I did notice Cameron once again equating Leave with Farage in his Telegraph article. I will get to the voting booth if I have to drag myself by my fingers. The guy is a giant cock.0 -
This could still go either way.
Next up Marr and Pesto interviews in the morning.
Then QT with Cameron.
Plenty of chances for either side to drop a bollock.0 -
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis. If I state that a casino is rigged and yet win loads of money off the casino then the obvious conclusion is not that they let me win, but that it wasn't rigged in the first place.YBarddCwsc said:Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness or otherwise of the vote.0 -
There isn't anyone I know who doesn't think this debate hasn't been conducted by a bunch of nasty school yard bullies and w*nkers. Trust in politicians and elites has fallen a long way as a result.Scott_P said:I commend all 3 of these to other readers, on the nature of our debate
In my twenty-six years in this country, I have never felt more foreign, less welcome, more marginalised, or less safe. I am not alone. Hundreds of migrants I speak to feel this way. I spend every minute of every day trying to justify my existence, against a wall of blind hatred. It is that hatred that killed Jo Cox. And we all must look into our conscience and answer the question: "Have I contributed"?
I know I have. I have been terrified, unreasonable, rude, hateful and superior on so many occasions to so many people. I have refused to acknowledge opposing points of view. Created an echo-chamber of validation. My mind has been closed and my heart full of antagonism.
That is not to say we are all equal contributors to the toxic atmosphere which surrounds us, however. I am a banged-up car, fuming. There are others who are power stations churning out noxious gasses.
Read more at:https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/1109
It seems there's something about the winner-takes-all, "once in a lifetime" nature of referendums that encourages the worst in political campaigners. But the people who should take the blame for this are not just those who stoop to using the cheapest language and most offensive rhetoric. Also to blame are those on both sides who stand by and let it happen, those who tolerate appalling behaviour from their own, those who turn a blind-eye to the rise of the malignant far right for fear of getting involved.
We all share blame, whether through our action or our inaction.
http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-blame-game.html
And this
https://lokithescottishrapper.com/2016/06/17/trigger-warning-taking-responsibility-for-your-part-in-this-divided-society/0 -
Arsenal are trying to come first by buying all the first 11 of the team above them. They know that otherwise they cannot do it! ;-)TOPPING said:Second like Arsenal next season.
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But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.Casino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
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Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave0 -
.
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Near-perfect dead meat.NoEasyDay said:
Osbourne is dead meat. Whetever the result. In the last month I have not met anyone who doesnt despise him.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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I used to despise him, and now am beginning to warm to him alot.NoEasyDay said:
Osbourne is dead meat. Whetever the result. In the last month I have not met anyone who doesnt despise him.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
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My read of the thrust of the 3 pieces I linked to is that we, the public and the commentariate are equally culpableBenedictWhite said:There isn't anyone I know who doesn't think this debate hasn't been conducted by a bunch of nasty school yard bullies and w*nkers. Trust in politicians and elites has fallen a long way as a result.
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ExactlyCasino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.0 -
Maybe because many of the white working class are voting UKIP now anywayDanny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave0 -
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.tyson said:
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.Casino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
Care to explain?0 -
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
LEAVE's odds with Betfair Exchange ease out to 3.15 ...... that's quite some move from having been 2.5 in mid-week.0
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That is really really odd.Danny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave
Still odd that as many as 5% of UKIP are voting remain mind.0 -
Leave need to go hard on immigration.
Make it clear this is the last chance to control the borders.0 -
Just seen the polls. Come on boys, we can do this.
#Remain0 -
You laugh, but the latest Scottish parliament election suggests we could set 40 odd SNP MPs elected next time, 3 Conservative, 3 LibDem and 1 labour.scotslass said:I know its just a sub sample of 182 and therefore has only comic validity but the Scottish cross break of Comres has Labo0ur FOURTH equal with UKIP on 8 per cent. - SNP 53, TORY17,LIB DEMS 9!!!!!!
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Harry Cole got it spot on, IMHO. This is why Project Fear will never end:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/7409097990643712000 -
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Edit: You are clearly trolling.0 -
#remainSandyRentool said:This could still go either way.
Next up Marr and Pesto interviews in the morning.
Then QT with Cameron.
Plenty of chances for either side to drop a bollock.0 -
On number 4), I don't think that is on offer.TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
I was told by one of my LabourIN friends the other day, they did an analysis of the voters who were most vehemently saying 'I've voted Labour all my life but I'm voting Leave' a significant chunk of them weren't on the electoral register.Danny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave0 -
Winning on this particular bet will not be any buzz. I intend to donate a good chunk of it now.. winning money feels wrong.0
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That isn't fair though is it? The public are not the ones in the media shouting what ever comes into their head,Scott_P said:
My read of the thrust of the 3 pieces I linked to is that we, the public and the commentariate are equally culpableBenedictWhite said:There isn't anyone I know who doesn't think this debate hasn't been conducted by a bunch of nasty school yard bullies and w*nkers. Trust in politicians and elites has fallen a long way as a result.
Down my way (anecdote alert) we are able to discuss the issues reasonably and intelligently without trying to imply those who disagree are mad, bad, or dangerous to know.
It appears that the people conducting the debate are not capable of this and it appears Cameron is at the personal attacks again.0 -
Reports from Labour MPs in the general election suggested that many were fearing that UKIP might take their seats. Despite taking a lot of their voters, few came remotely close.Danny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave
I don't think anyone can say with any certainty what will happen next week. We simply have no idea on the reliability of the polls.0 -
Does anyone who's doing the Tuesday Wembely debate? I can't see if it's been announced.0
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The personal attacks by Cameron on Boris/Gove in the ST suggests that Remain still think it's close.SandyRentool said:This could still go either way.
Next up Marr and Pesto interviews in the morning.
Then QT with Cameron.
Plenty of chances for either side to drop a bollock.0 -
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.MP_SE said:
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
You might also want to consider GDP growth absent population growth, the whole "march of the makers" rebalancing of the economy, and our still just as dismal productivity. Osborne talks big but he is no better than the last couple of predecessors who were rubbish. And amazingly Osborne seems to even more so see the economy as a political tool for his own ambition.TheScreamingEagles said:There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
I'm another one who won't be voting Conservative again until Cameron and Osborne are toast.
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The only way to achieve 4 is to:TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
1. Join the Euro
2. Join Schengen.
3. Lead political integration, starting with changing our criminal system away from trial buy jury to the continental system
Do you think that is remotely possible?0 -
Maybe the Labour leave vote don't talk to the pollstersDanny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave
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4) Zero chance. Just none.TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
I wonder if one of the strands of the anti-immigration stance (the security aspect) has been undermined by this weeks events. When you have home grown killers committing pseudo-terrorist outrages, it undermines the message against potential Islamic terrorism.Viceroy said:Leave need to go hard on immigration.
Make it clear this is the last chance to control the borders.0 -
All I have claimed is that Cameron started out with enormous advantages. A good politician at the top of his game (say Blair circa 1999) would have trounced the opposition. (I never used the word rigged -- you did.)alex. said:
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis.YBarddCwsc said:Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness of the vote.
A modest politician (say Theresa May) would have won pretty handily (say by 10 per cent).
A piss-poor set of politicians (Cameron, Osborne) may just about struggle over the line ahead of Leave.
All these referendums are very difficult for the insurgent side to win. They have been lost twice in Quebec and once in Scotland, However, there the Outers had the support of the Quebec National Government or the Scottish Parliament. The Outers here had nothing, and they have given Cameron the fright of his life.
Cameron may still lose the unlosable referendum. Let's see.
However, he has certainly destroyed the Tory party. It is not relevant to the fairness of the vote. The reason why I mention it is it reflects on his competence. He is a poor politician.0 -
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.Casino_Royale said:
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.tyson said:
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.Casino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
Care to explain?
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved.
The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
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So why were they even contacting people not on the Electoral Register? That is a spectacularly inefficient form of canvassing they are undertaking. Suspiciously inept.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I was told by one of my LabourIN friends the other day, they did an analysis of the voters who were most vehemently saying 'I've voted Labour all my life but I'm voting Leave' a significant chunk of them weren't on the electoral register.Danny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave0 -
Danny - you're right it is a mystery. I wonder if these are 'soft' Labour voters. Those in poor areas who identify with Labour but don't necessarily turn out to vote. Plenty of areas where turnout is around 50% or less, even for a GE.0
-
Mair is no more representative of LEAVERs than ISIS is representative of Muslims.alex. said:
I wonder if one of the strands of the anti-immigration stance (the security aspect) has been undermined by this weeks events. When you have home grown killers committing pseudo-terrorist outrages, it undermines the message against potential Islamic terrorism.Viceroy said:Leave need to go hard on immigration.
Make it clear this is the last chance to control the borders.0 -
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.MP_SE said:
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.0 -
Some leavers would like to suggest that a remain vote is just that.SandyRentool said:
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.MP_SE said:
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.0 -
FPT
For Topping
https://www.scribd.com/doc/299847249/0216-EUCO-Conclusions
The main conclusions plus the annexes.
You might like to look at Annex II Article 1 which outlines the procedure to be followed if a non Eurozone member objects to any new legislative acts agreed by the rest of the Council. You will note that there is no means for a non Eurozone member to prevent that legislation passing and the last paragraph
"While taking due account of the possible urgency of the matter and based on the reasons for opposing as indicated under paragraph 1, a request for a discussion in the European Council on the issue, before it returns to the Council for decision, may constitute such an initiative. Any such referral is without prejudice to the normal operation of the legislative procedure of the Union and cannot result in a situation which would amount to allowing a Member State a veto. "0 -
You are then a remainer.tyson said:
I used to despise him, and now am beginning to warm to him alot.NoEasyDay said:
Osbourne is dead meat. Whetever the result. In the last month I have not met anyone who doesnt despise him.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
Trust me using evil to gain you short term, only emboldens the evil. And it will come to claim you.0 -
Eh? This discussion didn't start with your post and didn't start with mine. Somebody else used the word rigged and my posts were in response to that. It's not my fault you got involved half way through.YBarddCwsc said:
All I have claimed is that Cameron started out with enormous advantages. A good politician at the top of his game (say Blair circa 1999) would have trounced the opposition. (I never used the word rigged -- you did.)alex. said:
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis.YBarddCwsc said:Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness of the vote.
.
0 -
Well on one of the visits we went to, we went to canvass people 1 and 2, and were accosted by a third person who lived there as well and told us they were voting Leave, and contacts from leaflet drops and phonebank info but subsequent research shows they weren't registered to voteMarqueeMark said:
So why were they even contacting people not on the Electoral Register? That is a spectacularly inefficient form of canvassing they are undertaking. Suspiciously inept.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I was told by one of my LabourIN friends the other day, they did an analysis of the voters who were most vehemently saying 'I've voted Labour all my life but I'm voting Leave' a significant chunk of them weren't on the electoral register.Danny565 said:Labour voters continue to be the big mystery of the referendum - YouGov again shows them breaking heavily for Remain, in defiance of all the anecdotes from Labour MPs.
Conservatives: 41% Remain, 59% Leave
Labour: 71% Remain, 29% Leave
Lib Dems: 75% Remain, 25% Leave
UKIP: 5% Remain, 95% Leave0 -
A little scary now reading things like thatNoEasyDay said:
You are then a remainer.tyson said:
I used to despise him, and now am beginning to warm to him alot.NoEasyDay said:
Osbourne is dead meat. Whetever the result. In the last month I have not met anyone who doesnt despise him.tyson said:
The thing is when the dust settles.....Osborne will look like a winner. And people like winners. Osborne's intervention last week was decisive in my opinion. It would be a shame if the shine was taken off Osborne's masterclass in political strategy by the tragic events on Friday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
Trust me using evil to gain you short term, only emboldens the evil. And it will come to claim you.0 -
Then prepare for a fight after the referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
If you want to be a intransigent, stubborn prat, you'll get what you deserve.0 -
The eurozone has been an economic disasterSandyRentool said:
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.MP_SE said:
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.0 -
Still everything to play for. A fortnight ago, we'd have been delighted it was so close, this close to polling day.Casino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.0 -
That's the problem with this referendum, we are choosing between two things we don't want. Cameron's new deal amounted to nothing. I've no doubt that some sort of associate status with a degree of free trade and migration controls would easily be the public's preferred choice.SandyRentool said:A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
0 -
He won 2 elections. Politics is like football - judge on results! No-one in the Tory party gets close to him on leadership and winning.YBarddCwsc said:
All I have claimed is that Cameron started out with enormous advantages. A good politician at the top of his game (say Blair circa 1999) would have trounced the opposition. (I never used the word rigged -- you did.)alex. said:
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis.YBarddCwsc said:Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness of the vote.
A modest politician (say Theresa May) would have won pretty handily (say by 10 per cent).
A piss-poor set of politicians (Cameron, Osborne) may just about struggle over the line ahead of Leave.
All these referendums are very difficult for the insurgent side to win. They have been lost twice in Quebec and once in Scotland, However, there the Outers had the support of the Quebec National Government or the Scottish Parliament. The Outers here had nothing, and they have given Cameron the fright of his life.
Cameron may still lose the unlosable referendum. Let's see.
However, he has certainly destroyed the Tory party. It is not relevant to the fairness of the vote. The reason why I mention it is it reflects on his competence. He is a poor politician.0 -
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.tyson said:
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.Casino_Royale said:
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.tyson said:
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.Casino_Royale said:What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
Care to explain?
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved.
The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
But it's your money.0 -
Here is how all the papers divide.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/744289442228215810
No change with the express...0 -
I got involved because you know zero statistics.alex. said:
Eh? This discussion didn't start with your post and didn't start with mine. Somebody else used the word rigged and my posts were in response to that. It's not my fault you got involved half way through.YBarddCwsc said:
All I have claimed is that Cameron started out with enormous advantages. A good politician at the top of his game (say Blair circa 1999) would have trounced the opposition. (I never used the word rigged -- you did.)alex. said:
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis.YBarddCwsc said:Alex said (previous thread):
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness of the vote.
.0 -
They only went into 2.5 very shortly and eased out again- this was even after the big leave polls. It's as if there are people waiting to hoover up Brexit backers upto a point. The market is close to 40m. That is unheard of.peter_from_putney said:LEAVE's odds with Betfair Exchange ease out to 3.15 ...... that's quite some move from having been 2.5 in mid-week.
0 -
(3) was Lynton.TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..0 -
2) nonsense that was Lynton Crosbywelshowl said:
4) Zero chance. Just none.TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them0 -
I do hope this is irony.SandyRentool said:
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.MP_SE said:
Care to elaborate on that?TheScreamingEagles said:
No I'm not trolling.Casino_Royale said:
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.TheScreamingEagles said:
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesomealex. said:Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I suspect deep down you know this.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7
2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever
3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands.
4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.0
