Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
That's the problem with this referendum, we are choosing between two things we don't want. Cameron's new deal amounted to nothing. I've no doubt that some sort of associate status with a degree of free trade and migration controls would easily be the public's preferred choice.
That's true. If Cameron had tried to renegotiate he could have had a deal which would have won by a mile.
Instead he seems keen to destroy both the Conservative party and any residual trust in politicians.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
The only way to achieve 4 is to:
1. Join the Euro 2. Join Schengen. 3. Lead political integration, starting with changing our criminal system away from trial buy jury to the continental system
Do you think that is remotely possible?
1. - Arguably true 2. - Irrelevant - The CTA can exist in parallel with Schengen indefinitely 3. - The point on the criminal justice system is largely irrelevant
We won't achieve a leadership role until our body politic fully embraces federalism in theory and practice.
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness of the vote.
All I have claimed is that Cameron started out with enormous advantages. A good politician at the top of his game (say Blair circa 1999) would have trounced the opposition. (I never used the word rigged -- you did.) .
Eh? This discussion didn't start with your post and didn't start with mine. Somebody else used the word rigged and my posts were in response to that. It's not my fault you got involved half way through.
I got involved because you know zero statistics.
If you say so. I think you just completely misunderstood what I was saying. In fact I don't even know what you were disagreeing with since my argument was that claims that the poll is rigged are tenuous and you seem to be agreeing with me, simply asserting that (I paraphrase) "Cameron has played a good hand poorly".
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
That's the problem with this referendum, we are choosing between two things we don't want. Cameron's new deal amounted to nothing. I've no doubt that some sort of associate status with a degree of free trade and migration controls would easily be the public's preferred choice.
Instead he seems keen to destroy both the Conservative party and any residual trust in politicians.
Obviously that was not his intention, even if it is the result for many people - I don't really understand why we are pretending it was his intention. Better to just say he's made bad calculations and been crap than that his aims make no sense.
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
Now that you mention it, a popular politician by that name has recently been rejected by the voters. Perhaps our democratic government could enhance the reputation of the EU by sending him to represent us in the Commission?
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Can you substantiate that ? Or is it speculatiom ?
Eddie Jones - England's series win today in Melbourne came just a couple of weeks too late for him to get his gong, but a certainty next time around surely?
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
That's the problem with this referendum, we are choosing between two things we don't want. Cameron's new deal amounted to nothing. I've no doubt that some sort of associate status with a degree of free trade and migration controls would easily be the public's preferred choice.
What we need is a choice of half a dozen options, going to a referendum decided by AV.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Can you substantiate that ? Or is it speculatiom ?
It was either in the book by Tim Ross or the 2015 GE book by Cowley and Kavanagh
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Eddie Jones - England's series win today in Melbourne came just a couple of weeks too late for him to get his gong, but a certainty next time around surely?
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
That is not to say we are all equal contributors to the toxic atmosphere which surrounds us, however. I am a banged-up car, fuming. There are others who are power stations churning out noxious gasses.
Well, broadly, perhaps. I'm feeling pretty satisfied about my own toxicity though. Self satsfied smugness is my main vice.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Can you substantiate that ? Or is it speculatiom ?
It was either in the book by Tim Ross or the 2015 GE book by Cowley and Kavanagh
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
The eurozone has been an economic disaster
Yep. And you are going to make sure that when it really starts to fall apart we will still be tied to the EU and get caught in the fallout.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
The only way to achieve 4 is to:
1. Join the Euro 2. Join Schengen. 3. Lead political integration, starting with changing our criminal system away from trial buy jury to the continental system
Do you think that is remotely possible?
There is an alternative that the rise of the populist right across Europe makes possible in a way that wasn't before.
It used to be the case that the only way to lead Europe was to design integration and new institutions. However, because there is a very real risk of the entire project breaking down utterly, and possibly taking a lot else down with it, then someone who could take on and defeat that threat could find a route to leadership of the continent. That isn't about creating Euroarmies - quite the contrary - but it is about relevance and engagement. Membership of neither Schengen nor the Euro is necessary for that.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Can you substantiate that ? Or is it speculatiom ?
It was either in the book by Tim Ross or the 2015 GE book by Cowley and Kavanagh
So the answer is no.
Answer is yes, I'll look on the kindle app once I've finished writing the morning thread, and post a screen shot here.
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Are you planning to cash out or stick with your bets on Leave?. I am undecided, but increasingly thinking of backing out..
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
One group I can not understand are the Remainers who think the EU will really reform, they are deluded, at least the true Europhiles are voting for something on offer.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Insisting - that's the EU way. All are supposed to be joining anyway except us and Denmark, and Sweden are bending the rules so they can stay out.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
The only way to achieve 4 is to:
1. Join the Euro 2. Join Schengen. 3. Lead political integration, starting with changing our criminal system away from trial buy jury to the continental system
Do you think that is remotely possible?
1. - Arguably true 2. - Irrelevant - The CTA can exist in parallel with Schengen indefinitely 3. - The point on the criminal justice system is largely irrelevant
We won't achieve a leadership role until our body politic fully embraces federalism in theory and practice.
Something that will never happen. Which means we will continue to squat on the fringes with all the damage that entails.
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Not for tory leaders!!!
I'm talking about democratic elections. Trying to pick party leaders is as arbitrary as picking the Grand National Winners
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
Yougov shows voters as a whole want Osborne sacked by 41% to 26%. 37% of Tory voters want him sacked, 41% kept. The only other Cabinet Minister the public want sacked is Gove but only just and he does much better with Tories
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
One group I can not understand are the Remainers who think the EU will really reform, they are deluded, at least the true Europhiles are voting for something on offer.
Deep down I think these people know it and follow the party line,which is even worse.
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Not for tory leaders!!!
I'm talking about democratic elections. Trying to pick party leaders is as arbitrary as picking the Grand National Winners
So I guess you steered well clear of a Tory majority government then?
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
There is no happy ending for this for TSE. He has destroyed his reputation and will see heis party torn apart as well.
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Are you planning to cash out or stick with your bets on Leave?. I am undecided, but increasingly thinking of backing out..
I've lost about four hundred today on the shift alone today....do I stick or twist. I dunno to be honest, but I'd much rather have it this way than the other.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
Agreed they will continue with the project. And that is the poison. Within days of the result the euro army will be in the headlines. The so called concessions from the so called negotiations will be called into doubt as Juncker et al denied theyd agreed to them. Moves to give the Turks visas will be agreed.....Cameron has destroyed the Conservative party.
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
One group I can not understand are the Remainers who think the EU will really reform, they are deluded, at least the true Europhiles are voting for something on offer.
That depends what they mean by "reform". If they mean rolling back freedom of movement and adding a bunch of national vetoes so you can't change anything unless Luxembourg and Latvia agree then no, they're not going to get that.
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
There is no happy ending for this for TSE. He has destroyed his reputation and will see heis party torn apart as well.
Wasn't his reputation that of a dripping wet Europhile Tory?
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only two have an opt out. The rest are compelled to join at some point.
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
Edit: wrote something in response but my comment wasn't helpful
Logging off. Goodnight.
Scotty p for me doesn't come out of this to well,maybe the Tory head office may need a change.
I just skip most of his propaganda now.
And yet I look out for his... positive reinforcement I believe it's called .. wait until you have the same view on something in future. Right good night.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
Yougov shows voters as a whole want Osborne sacked by 41% to 26%. 37% of Tory voters want him sacked, 41% kept. The only other Cabinet Minister the public want sacked is Gove but only just and he does much better with Tories
My theory is Osborne has deliberately aggravated Leaver Tories even more than Cameron so he can be sacked in an effort to save Cameron,
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Not for tory leaders!!!
I'm talking about democratic elections. Trying to pick party leaders is as arbitrary as picking the Grand National Winners
So I guess you steered well clear of a Tory majority government then?
I won handsomely last year on the Tory biggest seats. The betting markets call the direction of travel. They obviously cannot tell you how much.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only two have an opt out. The rest are compelled to join at some point.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only Denmark and the UK have opt outs from the Eurozone. All the other members are bound by treaty to join eventually.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
There is no happy ending for this for TSE. He has destroyed his reputation and will see heis party torn apart as well.
At least Cameron can step down as leader with his reputation intact. O, wait...
What did I say earlier this evening about how we'd all collectively overreact to the polls tonight?
What will happen now, if Remain looks certain to win, is that voters will recalibrate to narrow its lead again.
But, the betting markets have always had remain in the lead- not even close to crossover.
We'll probably be saying next Friday it was never a contest.
I'm confused: you say the betting markets never get it wrong, and to follow their lead. Yet, you also say you've placed thousands on Brexit.
Care to explain?
Because I play the betfair exchange, and I thought there was value at 2-1 against. I was quite up on Brexit previously, so transferred all my existing political bets there. Obviously I would have hoped for some tightening...but this might not happen now before cashing out.
But Casino- there has not been any betting market in my memory that has called it as short as 2-1 on and not been right. It is inconceivable, considering the sums involved. The only elections that were genuinely close were the 2006 election in Italy and 2000 POTUS when the betting markets were ambivalent on who was going to win.
We'd had this conversation before: chasing the markets is the road to ruin.
But it's your money.
I made a call today that I thought it would tighten from 2-1 on. It hasn't so far.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
Are you planning to cash out or stick with your bets on Leave?. I am undecided, but increasingly thinking of backing out..
I've lost about four hundred today on the shift alone today....do I stick or twist. I dunno to be honest, but I'd much rather have it this way than the other.
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
One group I can not understand are the Remainers who think the EU will really reform, they are deluded, at least the true Europhiles are voting for something on offer.
That depends what they mean by "reform". If they mean rolling back freedom of movement and adding a bunch of national vetoes so you can't change anything unless Luxembourg and Latvia agree then no, they're not going to get that.
"Some people might take the view that a rigged vote, rigged ineptly, is possibly not a vote that has been rigged..."
So, you believe that if I take a biased dice, and carry out the biasing "ineptly", the result is fair dice.
Actually, the result is a biased dice.
I am not a Tory, but if I were, I might be very angry at what the process of "rigging ineptly" has done to the Tory party.
No i'm saying that advancing the case that the referendum was "rigged", and yet having to explain away why this "rigging" doesn't seem to have remotely improved the chances of success, should call into question the original hypothesis. If I state that a casino is rigged and yet win loads of money off the casino then the obvious conclusion is not that they let me win, but that it wasn't rigged in the first place.
The effect of the campaign on the Tory Party is completely irrelevant to the question of the fairness or otherwise of the vote.
Letting your side spend more than twice as much as the other side is rigging it, even if you then blow the advantage.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
I thought it was Boris, after 2012?
Just re-reading the book, Boris suggested it, Osborne was keen on it too but Lynton Crosby wasn't keen on Dave, so Dave despatched Andrew Feldman and George Osborne to persuade Lynton Crosby, and they did.
The most likely reaction to a British Remain vote is a collective sigh of relief from within the EU, and then the project continues.
One group I can not understand are the Remainers who think the EU will really reform, they are deluded, at least the true Europhiles are voting for something on offer.
That depends what they mean by "reform". If they mean rolling back freedom of movement and adding a bunch of national vetoes so you can't change anything unless Luxembourg and Latvia agree then no, they're not going to get that.
It takes some mental gymnastics to argue that the EU is incapable of reform while simultaneously believing that it's transforming from a trade block into a political superstate via a series of far-reaching reforms. It's the nature of the reform which they object to.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
Yougov shows voters as a whole want Osborne sacked by 41% to 26%. 37% of Tory voters want him sacked, 41% kept. The only other Cabinet Minister the public want sacked is Gove but only just and he does much better with Tories
My theory is Osborne has deliberately aggravated Leaver Tories even more than Cameron so he can be sacked in an effort to save Cameron,
Maybe but when Cameron goes then so does Cameroonism
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only Denmark and the UK have opt outs from the Eurozone. All the other members are bound by treaty to join eventually.
Technically yes, but Sweden cracked the cheat codes.
I'd imagine they'll join of their own volition eventually, though.
It takes some mental gymnastics to argue that the EU is incapable of reform while simultaneously believing that it's transforming from a trade block into a political superstate via a series of far-reaching reforms. It's the nature of the reform which they object to.
Fair point, what I really meant is an EU that reverses in a substantial way. The EU is a ratchet, you can stall it and appear to get some relief, but basically in the long term it goes in one direction.
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
Can you substantiate that ? Or is it speculatiom ?
It was either in the book by Tim Ross or the 2015 GE book by Cowley and Kavanagh
So the answer is no.
Answer is yes, I'll look on the kindle app once I've finished writing the morning thread, and post a screen shot here.
Of course if you prove it I will argue thats its cos Osbourne knows he is shit and asked someone to find a person with a brain who could run the campaign. How do you get an emoticon with a huge rolling laugh on this thing .....
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only Denmark and the UK have opt outs from the Eurozone. All the other members are bound by treaty to join eventually.
Technically yes, but Sweden cracked the cheat codes.
I'd imagine they'll join of their own volition eventually, though.
Nope. They have only managed to delay the inevitable. Unless they want to break the TEU and TFEU they will have to join at some point. Or they will be forced out of the EU. Of course the EU will continue to kick this can down the road for some time but when things start to to seriously wrong they will have to force the issue.
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
"The lies on Turkey" - as told by the Leave campaign.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
(3) was Lynton.
That's Sir Lynton, and who told Dave to appoint Sir Lynton, that would be The Second Lord of the Treasury
I thought it was Boris, after 2012?
Just re-reading the book, Boris suggested it, Osborne was keen on it too but Lynton Crosby wasn't keen on Dave, so Dave despatched Andrew Feldman and George Osborne to persuade Lynton Crosby, and they did.
I wasn't keen on Dave either, I voted for the other Dave.
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
I'll stick it out... I'll be on here every day until Cameron and Osborne are out of office even if I'm just a one man band.
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
"The lies on Turkey" - as told by the Leave campaign.
I'm sure you'll agree with me then that the moment Turkey is granted visa exceptions or is admitted to the European Union then we're entitled to have another referendum?
And the same goes for any more transfers of powers to Brussels which your side lies through the teeth and says will not happen. If it happens, another referendum - yes?
If you think your going to get away with this on the sly you've another thing coming. And the immigration issue is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. You'll all rue the day.
I wish Leavers would come to a consensus about whether the EU is set on an irreversible path towards a federal superstate, or is going to fall apart within 3-4 years under a mass of its own contradictions. And if the latter why they foresee no attempts at reform of the like they would presumably have liked to see in Cameron's deal (for those who claim to genuinely believe they could have been persuaded to vote Remain) to make the whole thing work.
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
I'll stick it out... I'll be on here every day until Cameron and Osborne are out of office even if I'm just a one man band.
You'll have plenty of support for Osborne being hounded out of office....
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
"The lies on Turkey" - as told by the Leave campaign.
I'm sure you'll agree with me then that the moment Turkey is granted visa exceptions or is admitted to the European Union then we're entitled to have another referendum?
And the same goes for any more transfers of powers to Brussels which your side lies through the teeth and says will not happen. If it happens, another referendum - yes?
If you think your going to get away with this on the sly you've another thing coming. And the immigration issue is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. You'll all rue the day.
We should have a referendum if Turkey gets the same status as Malaysia and is allowed visa free access to the Schengen zone?
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
"The lies on Turkey" - as told by the Leave campaign.
Look on the bright side. If Remain win you'll b abe to go to Turkey and find a completely empty country.
Maybe Osborne's "emergency budget" was after all a masterpiece of political campaigning...
I keep on telling people, Osborne is awesome
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
Yougov shows voters as a whole want Osborne sacked by 41% to 26%. 37% of Tory voters want him sacked, 41% kept. The only other Cabinet Minister the public want sacked is Gove but only just and he does much better with Tories
If after a Brexit vote Osborne manages to limit the damage he will be praised. If after a Remain vote the UK continues to grow healthily Osborne will be praised. It's in his hands to a large extent.
I'm starting to seethe with anger at the thought that Remain could win.
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
"The lies on Turkey" - as told by the Leave campaign.
I'm sure you'll agree with me then that the moment Turkey is granted visa exceptions or is admitted to the European Union then we're entitled to have another referendum?
And the same goes for any more transfers of powers to Brussels which your side lies through the teeth and says will not happen. If it happens, another referendum - yes?
If you think your going to get away with this on the sly you've another thing coming. And the immigration issue is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. You'll all rue the day.
We should have a referendum if Turkey gets the same status as Malaysia and is allowed visa free access to the Schengen zone?
And what would the question be? Should we stay outside the Schengen zone or join in?
I was trying (and am trying) to calm things down on my Twitter feed.
But TSE is PROPERLY winding me up now.
Might need to log off again..
Indeed. We talk about politicians having their reputations destroyed by this referendum but surely that applies to TSE as well.
My prediction is TSE will come out of this looking remarkably good. Like us Labourites in 2015, I doubt there will be many Euro headbangers pervading this site. You need a month or two away to nurse your wounds. There will be a lot of back slapping, joyous bonhomie, doubtless with TSE at the centre of it all.
Whatever the result on Thursday, I'm taking a break from politics, editing PB, the whole referendum, I want a few weeks of not thinking about politics, and I've got a pretty busy summer coming up anyway.
And if there is Brexit, works going to be so hectic.
You are trolling, but if you don't get rid of Osborne after this referendum (speak to your chums in CCHQ) the party is in deep, deep trouble.
I suspect deep down you know this.
No I'm not trolling.
He's a list of Osborne's awesomeness.
1) Best performing economy in the G7 2) Performance at the 2007 conference, helped turned the polls around when many were speculating that the Tory Party might well crushed forever 3) Told Dave to ignore trying to win back the Con to UKIP defectors and focus on the Lib Dems instead, which saw the Lib Dems eradicated from the political map in their heartlands. 4) Could help seal the UK's place at the heart of Europe with this referendum
There many other things I could list, but that's just some of them
Care to elaborate on that?
Yup, we're not in Schengen, we're not in the Eurozone, I suspect we'll take the role of the leader of the non Schengen/Eurozone blocs.
A Remain vote should mean all-in. Join Shengen, join the Euro, take Eurovision seriously.
Better to be balls deep in the EU than the never ending foreplay we've had for 40 years.
I do hope this is irony.
Only the bit about Eurovision.
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
A third of the EU is not in the Eurozone. Are we going to insist they all join along with us?
Only Denmark and the UK have opt outs from the Eurozone. All the other members are bound by treaty to join eventually.
Technically yes, but Sweden cracked the cheat codes.
I'd imagine they'll join of their own volition eventually, though.
Nope. They have only managed to delay the inevitable. Unless they want to break the TEU and TFEU they will have to join at some point. Or they will be forced out of the EU. Of course the EU will continue to kick this can down the road for some time but when things start to to seriously wrong they will have to force the issue.
I would have thought the opposite was true: if things are going to shit, forcing Sweden to join the Eurozone would be the last thing on the list of the Eurozone countries.
Comments
London Remain 57% Leave 43%
South Leave 53% Remain 47%
Midlands and Wales Remain 50% Leave 50%
North Leave 54% Remain 46%
Scotland Remain 63% Leave 38%
Instead he seems keen to destroy both the Conservative party and any residual trust in politicians.
2. - Irrelevant - The CTA can exist in parallel with Schengen indefinitely
3. - The point on the criminal justice system is largely irrelevant
We won't achieve a leadership role until our body politic fully embraces federalism in theory and practice.
But in political betting you really cannot go far wrong if you back the favourite, end of.
The best thing to do when polls are due to be released on pb.com is to go away, do something else, and come back an hour later.
I guess if you're trading the markets that doesn't work so well, but it does allow the hyperbole to die down and for cooler heads to prevail.
Normally.
Eddie Jones - England's series win today in Melbourne came just a couple of weeks too late for him to get his gong, but a certainty next time around surely?
You know it makes sense!
I'm a Leaver, but if we are going to commit to the EU I would prefer full commitment than continued wingeing from the back of the room.
Doesn't smell right.
After tonight's 4 new #euref polls, our Poll of Polls stands at Remain 50 (+2), Leave 50 (-2).
Logging off. Goodnight.
It used to be the case that the only way to lead Europe was to design integration and new institutions. However, because there is a very real risk of the entire project breaking down utterly, and possibly taking a lot else down with it, then someone who could take on and defeat that threat could find a route to leadership of the continent. That isn't about creating Euroarmies - quite the contrary - but it is about relevance and engagement. Membership of neither Schengen nor the Euro is necessary for that.
Anyway, time for bed...
I just skip most of his propaganda now.
And that is the poison. Within days of the result the euro army will be in the headlines. The so called concessions from the so called negotiations will be called into doubt as Juncker et al denied theyd agreed to them. Moves to give the Turks visas will be agreed.....Cameron has destroyed the Conservative party.
I'd imagine they'll join of their own volition eventually, though.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2016/jun/18/eu-vote-brexit-working-people-rents-wages
The lies on Turkey. The lies that no more powers will go to Brussels. The lies over our special protections. The moment ANY more power is handed to Brussels the Conservative Parliamentary Party must block at all costs and attempt to force another referendum. If it brings down the government and tears the Tory Party apart then do it.
If Remain are to win this on promising no more powers to Brussels and then proceed to hand over more powers, then we're entitled to have another referendum. False prospectus.
If my opponents were honest and argued for a federal Europe and closer union and I lost then fair enough. But what makes me so angry is how they'll lie through their teeth to us. My blood boils.
How do you get an emoticon with a huge rolling laugh on this thing .....
I'm used to it.
And the same goes for any more transfers of powers to Brussels which your side lies through the teeth and says will not happen. If it happens, another referendum - yes?
If you think your going to get away with this on the sly you've another thing coming. And the immigration issue is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. You'll all rue the day.
Delusions of grandeur.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/744298960945352705
And if there is Brexit, works going to be so hectic.
So either way, I'm outta here for a while.