politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which of the following areas will have the highest Remain s

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brom said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brom said:

It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.

Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.

As if we would have ever had a vote without their actions.

The referendum was announced long before they ratted to UKIP.

Was Churchill a "ratter"?

YellowSubmarine said:

A remarkably panglossian view of a lengthy, complex and high stakes divorce process with myriad variables. I respect the view the marriage is dead and divorce is needed. I'm bewildered by such confidence the divorce will be handed so well.

Thanks for the response and it's good to see you back posting. We were at one time political kindred spirits - possibly not so much any more but you were always one of the posters whose cogent analysis provided a welcome alternative to the sniping, jibing, jeering, 1980s pop references, Punic War references and the rest of the pot pourri of self-indulgence.

As to your reference, I would simply say it is in everyone's interests to make the divorce amicable and reasonable. As in all good negotiations, no one will get everything they want but there will be something for everyone.

Satisfactory and cordial negotiations will mitigate against economic and political uncertainty and turmoil - the tone will be set on Friday June 24th when everyone will be smiling and positive (whether teeth are gritted or not).

Razedabode said:

George is going at it again

£2.5bn from NHS, £1.2bn from defence and £1.15bn from education are sorts of cuts any Chancellor would have to consider

No foreign aid reduction in there, then?

Only things to hurt and annoy voters. A better question would be why no cut in housing benefit and in work benefits for migrants - as allowed by the European Court yesterday....

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Charles said:

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

Constitutionally he is still PM, and if we vote Leave, obliged to trigger Article 50

This sophistry from the Leave camp (we voted out, but not yet) is astonishing

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

Apart from the scaremongering hyperbole, great post

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

I'm almost utterly convinced Leave will triumph, but one strange thought lingers: in this media savvy/social media age, are the respondents simply using the polling to give the incumbent politicians a fright, with every intention of voting the complete opposite once they've seen them squirm enough? Just a daydream...

stodge said:

YellowSubmarine said:

A remarkably panglossian view of a lengthy, complex and high stakes divorce process with myriad variables. I respect the view the marriage is dead and divorce is needed. I'm bewildered by such confidence the divorce will be handed so well.

Thanks for the response and it's good to see you back posting. We were at one time political kindred spirits - possibly not so much any more but you were always one of the posters whose cogent analysis provided a welcome alternative to the sniping, jibing, jeering, 1980s pop references, Punic War references and the rest of the pot pourri of self-indulgence.

As to your reference, I would simply say it is in everyone's interests to make the divorce amicable and reasonable. As in all good negotiations, no one will get everything they want but there will be something for everyone.

Satisfactory and cordial negotiations will mitigate against economic and political uncertainty and turmoil - the tone will be set on Friday June 24th when everyone will be smiling and positive (whether teeth are gritted or not).

I left the Liberal Democrats in 2012 and haven't joined another party. I thought I'd keep the ' Yellow ' in the name for old times sake. It seems you've been on a journey as well !

FF43 said:

Charles said:

FF43 said:

My point is that if he intends to call Article 50 immediately and does do so, it wouldn't be a lie. Whether you think that a sensible thing to do is another matter.

FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.

Of course if he acts on his statement then he isn't lying.

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

On timing, they clearly need to have a worked out strategy, and I'm sure that there are developed options. But you need to get a new PM in place quickly - you may well get a holding action agreed by all the candidates implemented immediately, but I don't think the public cares about the precise mechanics provided that their decision is implemented in a respectable timeframe

This makes sense. On reflection the time prior to triggering Article 50 would be just to get the negotiating teams together and for them to work out their starting positions and to sound some of the other players - Norway and so on. Probably a small number of months. But there will unlikely be any "pre-negotiation" of the kind implied by Vote Leave. It's not how the EU works and politically and in terms of managing uncertainty I don't think triggering Article 50 can be dragged out beyond getting to that starting position.

In this case, Cameron would explain to the public the reasons for the temporary delay in triggering Article 50, which he would note were agreed with his potential successors.

That's how I'd play it.

But I have no intention of being PM any time soon.

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

Constitutionally he is still PM, and if we vote Leave, obliged to trigger Article 50

This sophistry from the Leave camp (we voted out, but not yet) is astonishing

The difference between 2 years and 2 years + 3 months is irrelevant if it secures a better settlement.

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

No, actually you are totally effing wrong about me, like you are totally effing wrong about Europe. I'm an outward-looking guy in an international business who thinks you and your fellow travellers have taken leave of your senses.

Stark_Dawning said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

I'm almost utterly convinced Leave will triumph, but one strange thought lingers: in this media savvy/social media age, are the respondents simply using the polling to give the incumbent politicians a fright, with every intention of voting the complete opposite once they've seen them squirm enough? Just a daydream...

On polling day, there will be a shift to remain. It's just the magnitude that's unclear, as well as uncertainty about the true position going into the day.

The scenes on the Thames today are quite illuminating. Fishermen fighting for their livelihoods being harassed by metro liberals on a party boat.

YBarddCwsc said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

You do realise that this playbook will be used against Labour and Corbyn in his turn.

If we ever get to a stage where Corbyn actually looks like taking power, we will have the same scare stories about damage to the markets, financial confidence eroded, nose-diving house prices, London property market spooked, pensions destroyed.

Your argument is an argument that can be made against any political change whatsoever (from leaving Europe to Scottish independence to removal of tax loopholes to eliminating wage inequality).

It will "upset the markets”, who "dislike uncertainty”. It will “destroy investment”, which is “creating wealth for the country”. It is just Fear Porn.

That would be completely right about Corbyn, why shouldn't it be said about him too?

Jobabob said:

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

No, actually you are totally effing wrong about me, like you are totally effing wrong about Europe. I'm an outward-looking guy in an international business who thinks you and your fellow travellers have taken leave of your senses.

Apart from the obscenities, I'm the same as you, I do 90+% of my work outside the UK. I am a fervent Leaver though as I have no trust in the undemocratic EU and feel the philosophy/culture is at variance to that in the UK/Ireland

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

Constitutionally he is still PM, and if we vote Leave, obliged to trigger Article 50

This sophistry from the Leave camp (we voted out, but not yet) is astonishing

I sense a lot of Leavers want the vote to be Leave, but will then be pretty content just to let things carry on pretty much as they are. Despite next week's decision to pull out of the EU, I would not be surprised if we were still a member in 2020 and beyond.

I would. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 2019 we exit so that is three years potentially but the government is going to want to be reelected in 2020. To do so they need to demonstrate that they have done the job and done it well. To be able to project themselves as continuity of good economic management and the opposition as a risk.

If exit is still hanging over us like the sword of damocles then that will make reelection that much less likely.

George Osborne has a way of delivering possibly accurate, but unwelcome, news with an aggressive smirk that annoys people.

He had the same effect during Scotland's independence campaign when he ruled iScotland out of the sterling zone. There was an immediate move to Yes in the polls. OTOH enough people realised the truth of the matter when they came to vote. Of course that particular bombshell had seven months to sink in.

That economic and political turmoil means less money for public services only has nine days to work this time. He's on an accelerated programme.

Pulpstar said:

I don't want "leave" to win. I don't want "remain" to win.

What happens in the event of an (unlikely) tie ?

We have a new referendum conducted under AV.

The following choices on the ballot paper

A) Remain and ever closer union
B ) Remain
C) Leave without single market membership
D) Leave with single market/EEA membership

https://twitter.com/andrewbloch/status/743032967166070784

I wouldn't waste your money on Cardiff having the highest remain vote. The city is emptying of students fast, turnout for Cardiff Central may look very low on the day. If the remain campaign are relying on the young, I think they are done, outside of the people I can normally talk politics with (old Uni friends), other people my age are not interested.

Coming into work today the RMT were giving out vote leave leaflets at Cardiff Central train station, first bit of literature I've had other than the government leaflet over a month ago.

Estobar said:

Been hearing from someone very senior in the city. He reckons the next ten days will be very big / rocky in the trading rooms but that in the longer term Brexit will bring Britain a stronger economy.

Have you been speaking to Charles or to me?

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

Constitutionally he is still PM, and if we vote Leave, obliged to trigger Article 50

This sophistry from the Leave camp (we voted out, but not yet) is astonishing

I sense a lot of Leavers want the vote to be Leave, but will then be pretty content just to let things carry on pretty much as they are. Despite next week's decision to pull out of the EU, I would not be surprised if we were still a member in 2020 and beyond.

I would. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 2019 we exit so that is three years potentially but the government is going to want to be reelected in 2020. To do so they need to demonstrate that they have done the job and done it well. To be able to project themselves as continuity of good economic management and the opposition as a risk.

If exit is still hanging over us like the sword of damocles then that will make reelection that much less likely.

Not sure there'll be anything hanging over us. Six months of turmoil post-Brexit vote will concentrate a lot of minds.

Estobar said:

Been hearing from someone very senior in the city. He reckons the next ten days will be very big / rocky in the trading rooms but that in the longer term Brexit will bring Britain a stronger economy. And everyone's geared up for Leave winning.

The only sensible conclusion is that there will be some pain, followed by a period where growth will be approximately the same as it would have been if we stayed. Leaving the EU will not destroy the British economy any more than it will add rocket boosters.

Blue_rog said:

Jobabob said:

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

No, actually you are totally effing wrong about me, like you are totally effing wrong about Europe. I'm an outward-looking guy in an international business who thinks you and your fellow travellers have taken leave of your senses.

Apart from the obscenities, I'm the same as you, I do 90+% of my work outside the UK. I am a fervent Leaver though as I have no trust in the undemocratic EU and feel the philosophy/culture is at variance to that in the UK/Ireland

Not sure why Leavers keep dragging Ireland into things. The Irish are not going to leave the EU and feel a very strong bond with Europe, especially the Catholic south.

More positive poll is pushing the pound and the markets up a bit. The next week is likely to show extreme volatility.
Expect more companies to follow Rolls Royce and make their intentions clear. I've no problem with Brexit winning, but it would be so much better if this was the result of people realising the consequences and being prepared to accept them.
Pension funding, both state and private, is the biggest concern.

Scott_P said:

@Env4Eur: Nigel Farage says he cares about fisheries. Just not enough to do his job. https://t.co/Ecxxs0ZlMu

I bet he still draws as much as he can.
https://next.ft.com/content/85563e82-8f44-11e3-be85-00144feab7de

Comres tables now out - England backs Leave 51% to 49%, the UK Remain 51% to 49% thanks to a 68% to 32% margin for Remain in Scotland
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf

Scott_P said:

MP_SE said:

The scenes on the Thames today are quite illuminating. Fishermen fighting for their livelihoods being harassed by metro liberals on a party boat.

The Brexit "flahship" is apparently owned by a millionaire

@hugorifkind: So, British fishermen. Was reading up last week. We tend to think of them as locals from small communities, bravely struggling on. Right?

@hugorifkind: Is balls. British owned ships, frequently employing Philippines or Thai fishermen at bare minimum wage. Bare minimum of local employment.

Mr Rifkind, enjoy your holiday in Brixham....

***Betting post***: George Osborne to cease to be Chancellor of Exchequer in 2016 @7/4 with Hills. http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/499992/Conservative+Specials.html

Osborne's threatened budget of tax rises and spending cuts was met with 57 Conservative MPs signing a letter opposing it in next to no time. The Chancellor is very much in the firing line for the Leave campaigners having made economic fears central to the campaign to say in the EU. There's a range of scenarios that I believe make an Osborne departure in 2016 better than 50:50 and the 7/4 should be taken.

Scenario 1. Remain wins comfortably in the end and both Cameron and Osborne unite the Tory benches and both stay in post for at least the rest of the year.

Scenario 2. Remain wins by a narrow margin and Tory civil war erupts. Cameron won't feel obliged to leave in 2016 but will be under pressure to go sooner than 2019/20. A reshuffle takes places and Osborne is moved to another role such as Foreign Secretary. This will possibly boost his future leadership chances and placate opponents.

Scenario 3. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016 and is compelled to appoint a new Chancellor.

Scenario 4. Leave wins, Cameron departs and Osborne somehow wins the leadership and therefore is no longer Chancellor.

Scenario 5. Leave wins and Cameron departs. A new leader is elected in 2016. Osborne didn't stand but is retained to provide some economic continuity.

Scenarios 1 and 5 don't appear to be particularly likely right now though can't be dismissed. While there will be other scenarios, the likelihood of Osborne leaving the role of Chancellor by the end of the year seems reasonably likely. If you agree with me that today's developments will rebound on Osborne then the chances of him going later this year look even greater and the prices with William Hill looks even better value. I'd say there is a 60% chance Osborne will leave his post this year and not a 36% chance which the odds imply.

HYUFD said:

ABs 61% to 39% for Remain, C1s 51% to 49% for Remain, C2s 67% to 33% for Leave, DEs 55% to 45% for Leave.
2015 Tories back Leave 56% to 44%, Labour voters back Remain 71% to 29%, UKIP voters for Leave 99% to 1%
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf

Amazing how this election has broken down along class lines.

MarqueeMark said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

I'm almost utterly convinced Leave will triumph, but one strange thought lingers: in this media savvy/social media age, are the respondents simply using the polling to give the incumbent politicians a fright, with every intention of voting the complete opposite once they've seen them squirm enough? Just a daydream...

On polling day, there will be a shift to remain. It's just the magnitude that's unclear, as well as uncertainty about the true position going into the day.

Maybe. Every other assessment about how this Referendum vote would go has been wrong to date....

It's the most unpredictable election I can remember or have read about. Far more so than the Scottish referendum because people's opinions are more volatile and there seems to be a vast disparity between what voters want to express and what they want to actually happen.

Scott_P said:

MP_SE said:

The scenes on the Thames today are quite illuminating. Fishermen fighting for their livelihoods being harassed by metro liberals on a party boat.

The Brexit "flahship" is apparently owned by a millionaire

@hugorifkind: So, British fishermen. Was reading up last week. We tend to think of them as locals from small communities, bravely struggling on. Right?

@hugorifkind: Is balls. British owned ships, frequently employing Philippines or Thai fishermen at bare minimum wage. Bare minimum of local employment.

https://twitter.com/IRAJohnnie/status/743027877269082112

Estobar said:

HYUFD said:

Comres tables now out - England backs Leave 51% to 49%, the UK Remain 51% to 49% thanks to a 68% to 32% margin for Remain in Scotland
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf

I'm getting so confused. That's yesterday's one right?

Last night's yes

HYUFD said:

ABs 61% to 39% for Remain, C1s 51% to 49% for Remain, C2s 67% to 33% for Leave, DEs 55% to 45% for Leave.
2015 Tories back Leave 56% to 44%, Labour voters back Remain 71% to 29%, UKIP voters for Leave 99% to 1%
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf

Remain need to concentrate on C2s.

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

Constitutionally he is still PM, and if we vote Leave, obliged to trigger Article 50

This sophistry from the Leave camp (we voted out, but not yet) is astonishing

I sense a lot of Leavers want the vote to be Leave, but will then be pretty content just to let things carry on pretty much as they are. Despite next week's decision to pull out of the EU, I would not be surprised if we were still a member in 2020 and beyond.

I would. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 2019 we exit so that is three years potentially but the government is going to want to be reelected in 2020. To do so they need to demonstrate that they have done the job and done it well. To be able to project themselves as continuity of good economic management and the opposition as a risk.

If exit is still hanging over us like the sword of damocles then that will make reelection that much less likely.

Not sure there'll be anything hanging over us. Six months of turmoil post-Brexit vote will concentrate a lot of minds.

I get the impression you are going to be horribly disappointed if there isn't months of turmoil.

Nope, I will be delighted to be proved totally wrong. And I will happily hold my hand up and, if you like, buy you a slap up lunch. How about that? I do not want to see what I think will happen happening. It would be disastrous.

HYUFD said:

Comres tables now out - England backs Leave 51% to 49%, the UK Remain 51% to 49% thanks to a 68% to 32% margin for Remain in Scotland
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf

that would be an interesting turn of events if Scotland keeps the UK in the EU, a godsend for UKIP I think!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Estobar said:

Been hearing from someone very senior in the city. He reckons the next ten days will be very big / rocky in the trading rooms but that in the longer term Brexit will bring Britain a stronger economy. And everyone's geared up for Leave winning.

The only sensible conclusion is that there will be some pain, followed by a period where growth will be approximately the same as it would have been if we stayed. Leaving the EU will not destroy the British economy any more than it will add rocket boosters.

We have a huge debt overhang and a demographic problem once you strip out immigration. If Brexit doesn't cause immediate massive pain as we have a big correction, then it will simply consign us to decades of stagnation.

FF43 said:

Indigo said:

FF43 said:

He had the same effect during Scotland's independence campaign when he ruled iScotland out of the sterling zone. There was an immediate move to Yes in the polls. OTOH enough people realised the truth of the matter when they came to vote. Of course that particular bombshell had seven months to sink in.

It had the advantage of being true, his latest missive, not so much. Corbyn and McDonnell won't support it, 50+ of his own MPs won't support it, even the SNP wont support it, its dead in the water and lies there bobbing around as a bit of an embarrassment for him, whilst handing excellent attack lines to Labour, at no cost to them, which they will have finely tuned by 2020.

I think you are getting hung up on the budget detail. The point Osborne is making is that there will be a budget deficit post Brexit that is big enough to require the Chancellor to have to make difficult tax and spend decisions. That is as true as saying iScotland would not be part of the sterling zone. That fact wasn't accepted by Yes supporters ("Bullying, bluffing and blustering" in the words of Alex Salmond. Leave voters also think he is bullying, bluffing and blustering about the effect of Brexit on public finances.

He is trying to maximise his message by highlighting things that are most visible to the public in his budget scenarios - income tax, fuel duty and the NHS. He could raid pensions instead, like Gordon Brown did, but that isn't his game.

A 17C French Finance minister said that the art of taxation is to pluck the most feathers from a goose for the fewest squawks. Osborne is going for maximum squawks in this exercise. But it doesn't take away from the fact that Brexit means more feathers being taken from the goose

I don't think there is much in pensions left to attack that wouldn't stop people buying them full stop...

@HenryGManson - Good spot. Unfortunately Mr Hill doesn't like taking bets for more than tuppence ha'penny from me, but IMO anyone who can get on should go for it.

HurstLlama said:

It strikes me that Osborne's fantasy emergency budget was just another iteration of project fear. Just look at what he has promised to cut, the things people care about.

He could have made a serious point, i.e. there is likely to be a hit to the economy when we leave the EU and that will have an effect on what the government can spend. He didn't he went for project fear an emergency budget (as if the economy will suddenly change the week after next) and taking his axe to education and health etc.. Additionally, he must have known that he could never get such a budget through the Commons, so the whole thing is ridiculous.

Then there is the damage he will have done to his party. As others have said he has given Labour more attack lines than you can shake a stick at and attack lines that, i think, will resonate for years to come and will be very hard to refute. I hate the term but all Cameron's work to detoxify the Conservative Party have largely been undone by his best mate in one day.

Not that long ago Cameron was telling us that the UK could thrive outside the EU. Now he tells us we will have financial and economic armageddon if we leave. Was he lying then or now? It doesn't matter because we now know we cannot trust a word he says. Regardless of the result for the good of all Cameron must be ousted as soon as the referendum is done along with his sidekick.

Absolutely agree

SouthamObserver said:

Blue_rog said:

Jobabob said:

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

No, actually you are totally effing wrong about me, like you are totally effing wrong about Europe. I'm an outward-looking guy in an international business who thinks you and your fellow travellers have taken leave of your senses.

Apart from the obscenities, I'm the same as you, I do 90+% of my work outside the UK. I am a fervent Leaver though as I have no trust in the undemocratic EU and feel the philosophy/culture is at variance to that in the UK/Ireland

Not sure why Leavers keep dragging Ireland into things. The Irish are not going to leave the EU and feel a very strong bond with Europe, especially the Catholic south.

One thing that perplexes me is why Unionists in the north are so pro-leave? Or maybe you answered that in your own post.

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

Jobabob knows what is outside his door, he knows the way to work, he knows what his job is. He has a level of certainty that enables him to deal with the unexpected and which may encourage him to take appropriate, measured risks that, on balance, are likely to deliver benefits if they come off and will not have too much of a downside if they don't. That is life.

Leave is asking the British public to take a complete gamble based on no kind of precedence with no notion of what may happen next, just wild guesses. So wild in fact, that there are completely different predictions of where things may end up.

We need the great risk takers. But we need them to act as individuals. Entire countries are best off being a little more cautious.

I'm not sure how we could cautiously leave the EU.

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Jobabob said:

Pulpstar said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

Simply staggering, "Leave" have barely made an economic case worth the name and yet I think people would happily pay thousands to see George Osborne swinging in Tyburn.

Not so sure. Are they really going to vote for utter chaos for their families, total uncertainty for their children, nosediving house prices, depressed pension pots and market chaos when it comes down to it? Beyond a few eurosceptic fanatics, most people usually vote on pocketbook issues.

I guess this poll might be different, but hmm...

I'm guessing you don't even leave your house in the morning for fear of what lurks outside your front door.

Jobabob knows what is outside his door, he knows the way to work, he knows what his job is. He has a level of certainty that enables him to deal with the unexpected and which may encourage him to take appropriate, measured risks that, on balance, are likely to deliver benefits if they come off and will not have too much of a downside if they don't. That is life.

Leave is asking the British public to take a complete gamble based on no kind of precedence with no notion of what may happen next, just wild guesses. So wild in fact, that there are completely different predictions of where things may end up.

We need the great risk takers. But we need them to act as individuals. Entire countries are best off being a little more cautious.

Quite so.