politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which of the following areas will have the highest Remain s

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

Corbyn tackling the big issues of the day I see....

Keep this under your hat.

But during the last parliament a pollster had a weekly tracking poll. One of the questions they asked was

'If you met PM today what one topic would you raise with him'

At the height of the phone hacking scandal, less than 2% raised the issue of phone hacking

i'm shocked...shocked I tell you.

Corbyn channeling Southam there.

Cameron very, very rattled...

GIN1138 said:

Cameron very, very rattled...

very interesting. That big remain win isn't coming, maybe just maybe this is the end...

Mr. Divvie, in the run-up to the Scottish vote was there a rise in Don't Knows?

It seems rather counter-intuitive.

david_kendrick1 said:

One reason I'm voting Leave is that I don't more houses built in my village (or yours). I'd be delighted for house prices to come down.

If you build ten £500,000 houses on 5 acres of farmland, the country is £5M 'richer'. But are we better off? Remainers say, yes, for sure. Leavers, not so certain....

The developers are £500,000 better off - certainly. Of course we have lost 5 acres of productive farmland (increase in imports) and that much surface area for water to soak into the ground - increasing flood risks and erosion.

GIN1138 said:

Cameron very, very rattled...

What was asked and answered? Has a prominent Leaver asked an unanswerable?

I've added it up wrong ! 63.7% for Remain among certain to vote after repercentage. My bad !

Viceroy said:

rkrkrk said:

Patrick said:

Here's a Q for Remainiacs. Let us assume you are right and there is a downturn for a year or two or three. Would avoiding a short term challenge like this justify a 'decision for the ages' about who we are and who gets to govern us? The scaremongering seems to me to be saying essentially 'I'll sell my soul for 30 pieces of silver tomorrow'. My own view is that the referendum is the biggest political decision voters have faced in this country for ages and will set a direction of travel for a long, long time. We should not let short-termist issues drive the vote. Do you want to be part of a European superstate by 2040? That's a better way to look at it.

For me personally- no it wouldn't be worth it. I'd vote for a democracy and a recession over a dictatorship every time.

But I don't agree with your analysis that that is what is being voted on. I'm voting remain in the EU- I am not voting for a European Superstate.

Yes you are. Read the treaties.

So if we vote remain on June 23- that's a democratic mandate to join a European superstate?

No need for the EU referendum Act 2011, any UK government seeking to oppose an EU superstate thereafter would be undermining the democratic will of the people of Britain?

ReggieCide said:

John_N4 said:

David_Evershed said:

Sean_F said:

For many people, the ideal result would be Remain 50.01%, Leave 49.99%.

If it's a draw who gets the casting vote - Speaker Bercow?

I was going to say "the status quo would prevail", which in this context would mean continued membership. But I checked, and amazingly (source):

"A government spokesperson told ITV News: 'It is vanishingly unlikely that there would be tie, with exactly equal numbers of votes cast for each outcome, and there is no specific provision for one under the European Union Referendum Act 2015 or the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act 2000.'"

Wow! What pathetic drafting! Obviously a tie is extremely unlikely, but a hanging chads scenario where a broken down van carrying a ballot box or an egregious instance of cheating make all the difference isn't.

Would there not be a demand for a recount? Is there provision for such a demand if it's very, very close? What is very, very close?

I think that at the same time as a recount there would be a legal challenge about the Government targeting Remain voters and extending the registration time by 48 hours.

Of course the populace might regard this as whinging after a defeat and then vote heavily for Remain as a response. Close losers don't seem to win re-runs IIRC. (Isn't there talk of a legal challenge in Austria?)

TheScreamingEagles said:

MattW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

On which bombshell; hello from Paris!

I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?

(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)

When are the French going to honour the Treaty of Troyes?

Why does a Telecoms and Digital Wotsit Minister get to define immigration and customs policy in France?

Or was he just expressing a personal opinion?

The French economy would improve if George Osborne was in charge of the French economy.

the french economy would improve if bob the builder was in charge.

Why would any of the international back and forth of information to prevent terrorism be curtailed by the UK leaving the EU? I'm sure Leave could happily confirm that there will be no easing off in our vigilance in working with other security agencies worldwide.

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting. VLTC wants pre-negotiation negotiations.

Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.

Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.

My money is on a prompt invocation.

If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.

If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.

I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.

Yes. Same kind of lie as the referendum promise. We soon got to the bottom of that little ruse, though, didn't we?

Cons Leavers are falling over themselves to say they want Dave to stay. Dave has only said two things about post-Leave: 1) I will invoke Article 50 very quickly; and 2) there will be an emergency budget.

It's a normal politican lie - not one that's particularly important in the great scheme of things. Of course at the moment he will say things that support his cause.

Should there be a vote to Leave - and I am sticking with my nojam of 48-52 to Remain - then the world will have changed and his immediate priorities will be financial stability and negotiating the best exit in the circumstances.

I'd imagine that the BofE will open the discount window and probably have a short of QE ready to go. But equally an emergency budget will be very unlikely - rapid fiscal tightening (which is what Osborne is suggesting) will be more likely to crash the economy than anything else.

re: Article 50 starting the clock immediately simply doesn't benefit anyone. There needs to be a period of reflection, determining who will lead the discussions, deciding what the strategy will be and what the outcome with the greatest utility is. We need to bear in mind that the result will be very close, and you need to govern for the country as a whole, not for the 51% majority.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

On which bombshell; hello from Paris!

I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?

(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)

Will the socialists offer a referendum if we Brexit in order to make the second round and see of MLP?

I can ask, but I think that Juppe is going to be the LR candidate, and therefore whatever the socialists do is an irrelevancy.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MattW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

On which bombshell; hello from Paris!

I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?

(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)

When are the French going to honour the Treaty of Troyes?

Why does a Telecoms and Digital Wotsit Minister get to define immigration and customs policy in France?

Or was he just expressing a personal opinion?

The French economy would improve if George Osborne was in charge of the French economy.

The French economy would improve if ................... was in charge of the French economy. TBH.

The task of filling out the blank, I'd rather leave to you.

rcs1000 said:

On which bombshell; hello from Paris!

I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?

(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)

The question on all PBers lips:

Which is better wine: Bordeaux or Barolo?

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.

I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.

I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.

Mr. Max, The Queen Elizabeth might come out of the builders yard this year (though I thought it was next) then comes at least a year's worth of sea trials to make sure she actually works. The aeroplanes to fly off of her are still at least two years away and then there will have to be a period of working up (regaining all those skills that were thrown away). I read the other day that the in service date is now expected to be 2022 at the earliest.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, in the run-up to the Scottish vote was there a rise in Don't Knows?

It seems rather counter-intuitive.

It was double figure DKs till June, then mostly single figures for the last 2 weeks.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.

I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.

I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.

I doubt we'll have a working aircraft carrier this decade. (I agree with everything else in your post by the way; I was just being pedantic.)

ReggieCide said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cide, morris dancers are fearless. If we frolic in lace and bells waving our wiffle sticks in public, do you really mean to suggest I might be afraid of posting a mere rock song to a website?

Mr. Llama, quite. As I said a loooong time ago now, Cameron's claiming he's offering us a choice of ham or razorblade sandwiches. And that he said a few months ago he'd happily eat the razorblades. But now he's realised they're terribly dangerous.

He's definitely lying, the question is only whether it's then or now.

Does Status Quo qualify as "rock"?

In the days of disco and punk....yes!

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting. VLTC wants pre-negotiation negotiations.

Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.

Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.

My money is on a prompt invocation.

If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.

If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.

I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.

ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.

Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.

No - he's said he will call it immediately.

I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).

If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.

I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.

I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.

You mean the famously parsimonious MOD?

stodge said:

Once again, people are falling over themselves to lap up the rhetoric and not thinking about the reality of a LEAVE vote.

Voting LEAVE starts a process confirmed by the invoking of Article 50 by which Britain will instigate negotiations to leave the European Union. It's a right every state has and I imagine has always had.

Let's talk turmoil and uncertainty - there's plenty of that about all the time. The FTSE fell 12% between December 30th 2015 and February 11th 2016 but the world didn't end and indeed many cheered the slump in world oil prices (apart from those having a daily jibe at the SNP) that was the primary cause.

Whether inside the EU or outside, global financial markets react (or generally over-react) to events. The result of the Spanish election and indeed the upcoming elections in the US and Germany will all cause turmoil and uncertainty let alone other events or a cold winter or a mild winter.

Yes, political uncertainty doesn't help but if memory serves, the stock market surged on the Monday after the 2010 GE not because of the impending Coalition but because of a Greek bailout. We perhaps over-emphasise our importance on the global stage.

On Friday June 24th, the air will be full not of recrimination and fear but reconciliation and hope. Whichever side wins knows it has to a) restore confidence in Government and b) mend fences within parties and throughout Government. That won't be easy and doubtless some of the rancour of the campaign will live on but the winners will be conciliatory (though not on here I suspect) as well as the losers.

In and of itself, the very fact of a result will end uncertainty - we will all know where we stand or what we're standing in depending on your perspective. Reassurance will be everything - whichever side wins will, if they have any sense, be offering that by the bucket load.
</blockquo.

A remarkably panglossian view of a lengthy, complex and high stakes divorce process with myriad variables. I respect the view the marriage is dead and divorce is needed. I'm bewildered by such confidence the divorce will be handed so well.

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.

I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.

I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.

Mr. Max, The Queen Elizabeth might come out of the builders yard this year (though I thought it was next) then comes at least a year's worth of sea trials to make sure she actually works. The aeroplanes to fly off of her are still at least two years away and then there will have to be a period of working up (regaining all those skills that were thrown away). I read the other day that the in service date is now expected to be 2022 at the earliest.

The decision to scrap HMS Ark Royal before even one of the new carriers was ready was one of the stupidest and most short sighted decisions taken by Osborne.

Charles said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting. VLTC wants pre-negotiation negotiations.

Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.

Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.

My money is on a prompt invocation.

If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.

If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.

I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.

ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.

Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.

No - he's said he will call it immediately.

I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).

If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book

You should have advised Gordon Brown when he sold off gold. Mr Cameron, to his credit, did confirm immediately that the Government would respect the wishes of the House not to bomb Syria, after labour changed their opinions.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

On which bombshell; hello from Paris!

I'm seeing Emmanuel Macron in an hour. Any questions from PBers for France's economy minister?

(I cannot guarantee to ask any of them)

"Monsieur le Ministre, is there any glimmer of a smidgen of hope that France might eventually get round to implementing a tiny bit of the labour-market reforms which every man and his dog can see are absolutely vital if the country is get out of the doldrums?"

According to the excellent Melissa Kidd at Redburn, the French labour market reforms are rather deeper than most Brits think.

please ask him will he put tarifs on uk goods if we leave?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Tim_B said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Daily Politics - Andrew Neil says that John McDonnell says that Labour would not support Osborne's blackmail budget.

Another massive split in the REMAIN camp.

There are threats that if REMAIN wins, then Top Gear will feature wall to wall Chris Evans, will be renamed Gear Sans Frontieres, one of the two weekly stars in a rallycross car will be able to play the joker, there will be simultaneous translation of Evans shouting into French, and Stuart Hall will be brought in for commentary and sundry other things.

Will REMAIN pardon Stuart Hall?

Probably just appeal to his inner child......

Goodness gracious, this morning has turned into an quotation session. First at 12:23 we have YBarddCwsc with a line from Young Frankenstein immediately followed by Mr WeeJonnie with one from Gilbert and Sullivan. Well done, chaps.

P.S. Mr. Jonnie, Andy Cooke, gent late of this parish, reckoned that quoting G&S was a sign of distress so you may want to be careful.

@Pulpstar

Not so much. Swingette to DK – =most will break back Remain.

Mr. Divvie, cheers for that answer.

The Don't Knows rising by 10 does seem a bit peculiar.

As Osborne is apparently so useless can anyone explain the unemployment figures this morning?

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Not really, we will still have one of five UNSC seats and vetoes, we will still have a permanent nuclear deterrent, we will still be the fifth largest global economy, we will still be one of a handful of nations which can project forces globally. Not being in the EU isn't the end of the world and neither is it the end of our diplomatic and foreign policy power. If it was then we wouldn't be being bossed by Russia on Syria and Ukraine.

I'm not so sure we can project forces globally; we're currently without an aircraft carrier.

I thought is was supposed to be finished this year. At least the first one. No planes to fly from it until 2017/18 though IIRC. Another great piece of planning by the MoD.

The purpose of the MOD (and our defence spending generally) is to give employment - just as the Egyptians built pyramids. Weapons that might be actually used could be very dangerous.

The ultimate is of course Trident ( sole reason for existing: Jobs in Barrow-in-Furness). The aircraft carrier programme is almost as good!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?

Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.

Who?

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago
Cameron really, really doesn't like Mark Reckless does he? "Happy days, happy days" he says as he recalls @KellyTolhurst byelection #fullfat

I think he was a former MP for Rochester & Strood, he did something that pissed Dave off, I can't recall what though.

There's something of the Gordon Browns about David Cameron what with his with his enemies. But whereas Brown had a near sociopathic Mafia Don's urge to see them dealt with, Cameron just likes rubbing it in. He is after all only an amateur.

Charles said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting. VLTC wants pre-negotiation negotiations.

Those rebel Cons MPs had better get a move on because Dave has told us that he will invoke pretty quickly.

Plus not sure how some of the more strident Leavers (perhaps some on here?) would react to a Leave vote followed by what many would suspect would be some kind of backroom deal to keep us in.

My money is on a prompt invocation.

If he intends to resign then it would be utterly inappropriate for him to do so, and I don't believe he would. That is properly a decision of the incoming PM.

If he intends to stay and fight (no comment on how feasible that is) then he can make the decision.

I doubt he will invoke Article 50 immediately. But of course he is saying today that he will, because it increases the perceived risk. Basically he's lying to the people.

ON the other hand he can legitimately claim he is respecting the result of the referendum he called. No going back. There are practical arguments for triggering Article 50 (minimise uncertainty) as well as arguments for not doing so, as you point out. I am genuinely curious which way he will go.

Addendum - He would only lie if he DIDN'T call Article 50.

No - he's said he will call it immediately.

I spend my life negotiating stuff. You don't create a countdown that doesn't benefit you. I don't believe he has any intention of triggering immediately - and certainly not the scenario to which I was responding to (triggering and then resigning).

If he is saying he will call it immediately, but has no intention of doing so, then that's a lie in my book

My point is that if he intends to call Article 50 immediately and does do so, it wouldn't be a lie. Whether you think that a sensible thing to do is another matter.

FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?

Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.

Unfortunately not.

You exported him to Wales.

Destroyed = Exported him to the land of the Welsh

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?

Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.

Unfortunately not.

You exported him to Wales.

Those whom the Gods want to destroy, they first make mad!

foxinsoxuk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?

Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.

Unfortunately not.

You exported him to Wales.

Those whom the Gods want to destroy, they first make mad!

Those whom the Gods want to destroy, they first make Chancellor!

It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.

EIGHT DAYS TO SAVE THE EU PROJECT DAVE'S CAREER!

Brom said:

It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.

Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, cheers for that answer.

The Don't Knows rising by 10 does seem a bit peculiar.

I think there are quite a few genuinely conflicted Indy folk: vote Remain to stay in a union towards which you feel at best mildly positive, or Leave to stick it to Cameron, Osborne, Darling and the massed ranks of the British establishment.

FF43 said:

My point is that if he intends to call Article 50 immediately and does do so, it wouldn't be a lie. Whether you think that a sensible thing to do is another matter.

FWIW I am two thirds with you, but I can see counter arguments. No-one is going to agree on anything post Brexit (factions within the Conservative party, other UK parties, factions within the EU, and potential EFTA partners). This forces the issue. And this step is demanded by the Brexit result. There is a political need to be seen to respect democracy in a timely manner.

Of course if he acts on his statement then he isn't lying.

That being said, I think he has a well developed sense of constitutional proprietary, and he is also self-aware enough to know his position isn't tenable if he loses the vote (and hence Article 50 isn't his decision)

On timing, they clearly need to have a worked out strategy, and I'm sure that there are developed options. But you need to get a new PM in place quickly - you may well get a holding action agreed by all the candidates implemented immediately, but I don't think the public cares about the precise mechanics provided that their decision is implemented in a respectable timeframe

YBarddCwsc said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why is David Cameron so obsessed with Mark Reckless?

Sheesh, move on man, you destroyed him.

Unfortunately not.

You exported him to Wales.

He was born in Monmouthshire - unless you regard it as part of England?

I am not an expert, but Google has him born in London on 6 Jan 1970.

Sorry - sorry, yes you're right!

I was thinking of Hamilton

One year ago this week, Ipsos MORI had REMAIN leading by 44%.

REMAIN 66
LEAVE 22

https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brom said:

It must be said that if Leave were to win (and i still expect remain) then Reckless and in particular Carswell will be the men who kick started Dave's downfall. Some turnaround.

Or Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell were ultimately responsible for securing The UK's place at the heart of the EU.

As if we would have ever had a vote without their actions.

SouthamObserver said:

Mike has just posted the latest polls by date of fieldwork. Looking at them, the ComRes one is actually pretty old. the three latest are all showing decent leave leads. It seems fair to conclude, I think, that the Big Mo is absolutely and completely with Leave.

The ComRes poll fieldwork only ended on Monday night, a bit harsh to say it is old.

George is going at it again

£2.5bn from NHS, £1.2bn from defence and £1.15bn from education are sorts of cuts any Chancellor would have to consider

No foreign aid reduction in there, then?