politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.
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It's worth noting that 6 months ago, Remain led 58/32 with Com Res.0
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Rather shocking Telegraph report about the late Liberal MP Sir Clement Freud
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb0 -
Yep,vote leave to get rid of Osborne and his threats - works for me.Sean_F said:
Perhaps it's time to up the ante. Vote Leave to terminate Osborne's career would be popular.SouthamObserver said:
The Tory Leavers can't say that though, can they?glw said:
It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.Casino_Royale said:Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.
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Well they could have an "emergency budget" but if they couldn't carry a majority it's hard to see what the point would be.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
More likely the Tory Party would see that these two had gone utterly mad and they'd know it was be time to pull the plug.
As I've said before, this Party has got rid of far greater politicians than Cameron and Osborne in their time.
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What deliberately and vindictively cause harm because they are sore losers? Great plan!rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
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Surely the honest Leave response to the Osborne story is that it would be a price worth paying. That is what you believe, isn't it?0
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Okay, I get that. So get Gisela Stuart to do it. It would be a killer dirty move if the Brexit camp appeal to the hugely important Labour voters next week and tell them a Brexit vote will spell the end for the two posh boys in charge, Cameron and Osborne.williamglenn said:
Then he would expose his whole dalliance with Brexit as the career move that it is. It might be too late to damage the Leave campaign though.Fenster said:
If I were Boris I'd respond by saying if Brexit wins next week Osborne won't be delivering any more budgets. Again. Ever.rottenborough said:
It's front page of Metro. far more important.Sean_F said:Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
I even feel dirty suggesting it. But I reckon it could win the vote.0 -
They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
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I have to say this may cower a few but will embolden others. It's a very dangerous game to play.GIN1138 said:
It does look like they are in the last chance saloon and trying desperately for something, anything, to threaten the British people with.BenedictWhite said:
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.old_labour said:Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541
And these threats coming from these two look stunningly awful as well.
But maybe it'll stick this time. We'll see.0 -
So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?0
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They have a majority in Cabinet.GIN1138 said:
Well they could have an "emergency budget" but if they couldn't carry a majority it's hard to see what the point would be.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
More likely the Tory Party would see that these two had gone utterly mad and they'd know it was be time to pull the plug.
As I've said before, this Party has got rid of far greater politicians than these two in their time.0 -
I always had my suspicions, particularly his sharing of a Commons office with Cyril Smith. Interesting the timing of this coming out.HYUFD said:Rather shocking Telegraph report about the late Liberal MP Sir Clement Freud
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb0 -
My apologies.old_labour said:
Baron Darling of Roulanish to youAnneJGP said:
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.old_labour said:
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.HYUFD said:
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readersSean_F said:Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
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Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.AnneJGP said:
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.Casino_Royale said:
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.AnneJGP said:
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?Casino_Royale said:
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.MarqueeMark said:
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....kle4 said:
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.MikeL said:
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:kle4 said:But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Leave = You Lose Cash
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.0 -
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrongDanSmith said:
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.HYUFD said:
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one beforeDanSmith said:
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it toDanSmith said:"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,0 -
Crickey.HYUFD said:Rather shocking Telegraph report about the late Liberal MP Sir Clement Freud
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb0 -
Ding, ding, dingAlastairMeeks said:Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
We have a winner0 -
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.BenedictWhite said:
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.old_labour said:Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.
htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428343757174415410 -
Daily Mail has a full story on Clement Freud.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641755/Clement-Freud-child-abuser-Former-Liberal-MP-molested-girls-young-10-TV-documentary-reveals-two-victims-tell-pain.html0 -
It's the biggest slide on the stock market since ... February. Get a grip.Roger said:
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?AnneJGP said:
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.old_labour said:
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.HYUFD said:
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readersSean_F said:Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
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Stick to advertising Roger!Roger said:
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?AnneJGP said:
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.old_labour said:
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.HYUFD said:
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readersSean_F said:Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
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TheScreamingEagles said:
That sounds more like Sunil.MTimT said:TSE There is a new series that has just started on TV over here called Brain Dead. It is set in the political world of DC, but aliens, in the form of ant-like creatures, take over humans by crawling into their heads. The resultant infected human is incapable of political compromise and loves 1980s music, having it playing incessantly.
Are you proof that these aliens really existing and are already here?
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In the piece I wrote this week I wondered whether Leave would be able to paper over the cracks for the next ten days. After hearing Priti's first budget this morning followed by Nigel's rather smug xenophobia this evening it doesn't look too promisingTheScreamingEagles said:
This is just like Indyref all over again?Scott_P said:With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."
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I'm starting to wonder which politicians will be left alive at the end of this.0
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There seemingly now will be a far, far worse outcome for Tory cohesion than Labour now whichever way the vote goes. The acrimony is tangible.0
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This really is superb:
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
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The overriding impression that Osborne and Cameron convey is of a pair of absolute *****.
Half the population have always believed it, and now they are trying to convince the sceptics.0 -
Well they didn't even get that close, 1% lead was hung parliament territory with Labour most seats.HYUFD said:
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrongDanSmith said:
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.HYUFD said:
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one beforeDanSmith said:
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it toDanSmith said:"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,0 -
My one reservation about Michael Gove is his close friendship with Osborne. I can't understand it. One man is principled and thoughtful the other is ruthless and repulsive.
I'd like Leave to threaten Osborne but I don't think Gove would sanction it. Shame.0 -
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"SouthamObserver said:of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
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As a leaver I am also glad Osborne is fighting back.rottenborough said:
We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.Sean_F said:
He really is a piece of work, isn't he?GideonWise said:There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.
As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.0 -
After Brexit that "support" will melt away like snow in June...rottenborough said:
They have a majority in Cabinet.GIN1138 said:
Well they could have an "emergency budget" but if they couldn't carry a majority it's hard to see what the point would be.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
More likely the Tory Party would see that these two had gone utterly mad and they'd know it was be time to pull the plug.
As I've said before, this Party has got rid of far greater politicians than these two in their time.
I can see no scenario where Brexit occurs and Cameron and Osborne carry on in office reaping their revenge on the British people. It won't happen.0 -
Not really.Casino_Royale said:The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
Large parts of the country are fundamentally unhappy with immigration, and have responded positively to the Brexit dog-whistle, although you would have to be profoundly deaf not to have heard it0 -
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).SouthamObserver said:However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
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The issue was whether Osborne would be in a position to deliver a budget. He might be, even if it is voted down, which would probably be met by Cameron calling a GE.HurstLlama said:
They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
Apres moi le deluge.0 -
I agree with YBarddCwsc - I can't see the Tories recovering from this, especially not if Remain win. They've spent the last six weeks mocking and belittling half their own voters. I'm certainly not voting next time around for a Tory party led by Amber Rudd. But can you imagine Alastair Meeks voting for a Tory party led by a leaver? Either waym they lose half their voters. It didn't need to be like this. But it would have taken better politicians than David Cameron and George Osborne to avoid it.GIN1138 said:
The Tory Party will recover and endure. It's what they always do in the end.YBarddCwsc said:
I am not a Tory -- but it seems to me that the Tory party won't recover from this.MikeL said:Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.
Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.
Remain has been far too waffly up to now.
Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.
Remain now needs the public to also think:
Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.
Must be totally specific, no waffle.
No one likes a bully. No one liked to be bullied.
There won't be anything left for Osborne and Cameron to lead after the Referendum.
However, Cameron and Osborne are finished whatever happens. Leave or remain, they've destroyed their credibility with their own party and the wider electorate...
It's so bad they are now scrabbling around preying that Jezza Corbyn and Tom Watson can bring Lab voters to their senses and save them...
Tim was 100% right about these two all the way along. And now the Tory Party and wider electorate can see how useless they are their times very nearly up whatever happens.
I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
The only consolation for the Tories is that I can't see Labour prospering out of this either. Did you see that video that John Harris did from Stoke? They have lost the English working class like they lost the Scottish. They would be treated with contempt by that section of the electorate if they breezily continued with their Europhilia.0 -
£25bn Aid/EU.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
Next.
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I would ask that given the black hole in our structural deficit why haven't these cuts and increases not been implement years ago...AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
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"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is it allowed me to use that awful pun".0
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It's a price worth paying. They have already told us this. They should tell the country though.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
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"We're bastards who want to cut your services and increase your taxes. So go and vote to keep us in office".
It's an....unconventional tactic from Cameron and Osborne, at least.0 -
Osborne's threats are the equivalent of the Ardennes Offensive. The last, desperate, roll of the dice.0
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The GUARANTEED way for Cameron to win is to promise to execute Osborne in the event of a Remain vote.nunu said:
As a leaver I am also glad Osborne is fighting back.rottenborough said:
We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.Sean_F said:
He really is a piece of work, isn't he?GideonWise said:There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.
As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
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Vote leaf? What?TheScreamingEagles said:Tomorrow's front page of The Sun looks like a Daily Mash cover
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428347280935157780 -
Good point, Osborne's threat is complete bollocks.HurstLlama said:They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.
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If Leaving takes two years then that funding is committed for that period.Scott_P said:With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."
One the one hand no need for an emergency budget, on the other hand no bonus for the NHS or free unicorns either.0 -
There will not be a larger hole in the budget on the 24th of June than there was on the 22nd.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
If they then propose to put in a punishing budget they will look vindictive because that is exactly what they are being.
What is more, I suspect many know this is the case. It looks like a crass threat from a very sore loser because that is exactly what it is.0 -
I think some Leavers on here are rather missing the point. This isn't Ozzy's final act of vengeance; he's merely saying that these are the sort of cuts that will have to be implemented if even a middle-ranging Brexit Armeggedon ensues. Who actually delivers it - Osborne, Gove, McDonnell - is neither here nor there.0
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If George Osborne told me I had crapped myself, my instinctive reaction would be to check I had an arse hole.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
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Well its the Daily Mail and years after the event.old_labour said:Daily Mail has a full story on Clement Freud.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641755/Clement-Freud-child-abuser-Former-Liberal-MP-molested-girls-young-10-TV-documentary-reveals-two-victims-tell-pain.html
But Clement Freud was both an MP and BBC.
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They might manage to stick it out for a couple of weeks on a 'we cant afford any immediate political turmoil' line, but they'd be gone by the party conference, no question. The party would force them out within a month of any Brexit vote, IMHO.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
Their successor would stand on unravelling any budget measures considered deliberatively punitive.
Indeed, I see the likelihood of Cameron and Osborne being in post by the conference season as about sub-25% at the moment. If Brexit wins, they go - whether that's the day after or a week or so down the line. If Remain narrowly win, they'll be forced out either through a bitter Tory civil war or after being persuaded to stand down in the interests of party unity.
The only scenario where I can imagine them staying in post is, as I said recently, a 55%+ emphatic Remain win. And even then I wouldn't give them much more than 18 months.
It seems very likely we're looking at the last few weeks of Cameron's premiership.0 -
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
I can't see how a Cameron government could survive post-Brexit. It would be extraordinarily difficult for his government to get bills through parliament.
I don't want Cameron to go but I can't see how he'd be anything other than a dead man walking. Notwithstanding the fact I suspect he'd resign anyway.0 -
As the great Roy Hattersley wrote - as MP for Sparkbrook - when constituents came to me worried about immigration I had to dissemble, but when the constituency became majority immigrant I knew I was alright.0
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I've been trying for years to out-grow my childish responses to 'Conservatives', because I recognise that my innate dislike of them springs from adverse childhood experiences and not from rational motives.Casino_Royale said:
Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.AnneJGP said:
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.Casino_Royale said:
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.AnneJGP said:
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?Casino_Royale said:
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.MarqueeMark said:
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....kle4 said:
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.MikeL said:
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:kle4 said:But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Leave = You Lose Cash
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
This display gives a very sound rational basis to my innate reaction. Horrible man.
We need a complete re-boot of our political parties, all of them.0 -
Quite. It doesn't come across in the way it is supposed to at all, stitch-up?kle4 said:
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.BenedictWhite said:
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.old_labour said:Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.
htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428343757174415410 -
Have a heart hunchman! Can't you do your financial punditry somewhere else? We don't all want to end up selling the Big Issuehunchman said:
Stick to advertising Roger!Roger said:
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?AnneJGP said:
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.old_labour said:
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.HYUFD said:
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readersSean_F said:Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
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Along with thousands plunged into negative equity, X pts off GDP, and spiralling unemployment. As we have seen today.SouthamObserver said:Surely the honest Leave response to the Osborne story is that it would be a price worth paying. That is what you believe, isn't it?
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In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...Fenster said:A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?0 -
Cabbage leaf...Jobabob said:
Vote leaf? What?TheScreamingEagles said:Tomorrow's front page of The Sun looks like a Daily Mash cover
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428347280935157780 -
Osborne has borrowed £180bn more than he said he would.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
By the end of 2016 that will be approaching £240bn.
Annual GDP is approximately £60bn lower than Osborne said it would be as well.
How are you proposing that hole be filled ?
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Yes, yet another star of the 70s and 80s brought down, he was an extremely bright and witty man but also clearly sadly hid a much darker sidehunchman said:
I always had my suspicions, particularly his sharing of a Commons office with Cyril Smith. Interesting the timing of this coming out.HYUFD said:Rather shocking Telegraph report about the late Liberal MP Sir Clement Freud
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb0 -
Finally finished the modelling to 2015 constituencies/voters for party split.
Some huge lorry loads of salt necessary, and at least a 1% statistical MOE because of some very minor party votes ignored, but some very interesting outcomes.
With the following inputs:
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.5 0.5
LAB 0.6 0.4
LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05
BNP 0.5 0.5
DUP 0.3 0.7
GREEN 0.95 0.5
INDPT 0.5 0.5
PC 0.75 0.25
SF 0.95 0.05
SDLP
SNP 0.65 0.35
UUP 0.6 0.4
UKIP 0.05 0.95
Remain wins 52/48
But with the following
CON 0.45 0.55
LAB 0.55 0.45
LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05
BNP 0.5 0.5
DUP 0.3 0.7
GREEN 0.95 0.5
INDPT 0.5 0.5
PC 0.75 0.25
SF 0.95 0.05
SDLP
SNP 0.65 0.35
UUP 0.6 0.4
UKIP 0.05 0.95
Leave wins 51/49
Dialing up the Labour leavers to 0.5/0.5 whilst keeping Con 0.45/0.55 to Leave gives Leave the win at 53/47.
This is knife edge close.
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Cameron can't call a general election without a massive vote in the house. Remember the fixed term parliament act?rottenborough said:
The issue was whether Osborne would be in a position to deliver a budget. He might be, even if it is voted down, which would probably be met by Cameron calling a GE.HurstLlama said:
They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.rottenborough said:
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.GIN1138 said:Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
Apres moi le deluge.0 -
It needs to be specific to overcome the disingenuous calming 'it'll all be alright' claims from Remain. People need to hear how it will affect them personally in the short term.brokenwheel said:
Quite. It doesn't come across in the way it is supposed to at all, stitch-up?kle4 said:
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.BenedictWhite said:
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.old_labour said:Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.
htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428343757174415410 -
£30 billion is 4% of public spending and only twice the bogus figure Leave claims is the EU cost. For a major economic dislocation of the kind you get when unilaterally leave your main trading bloc this is a fairly moderate adjustment in public finances.
But .... As the seventeenth century French finance minister put it, taxation is the art of plucking the most feathers from a goose for the fewest squawks. By highlighting the items most visible to the taxpayer: income tax, fuel duty and cuts to the NHS, Osborne is going for maximum squawks on this.0 -
With the losses in Scotland too there is no way Labour would have won most seats if they were 1% behind the ToriesDanSmith said:
Well they didn't even get that close, 1% lead was hung parliament territory with Labour most seats.HYUFD said:
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrongDanSmith said:
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.HYUFD said:
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one beforeDanSmith said:
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it toDanSmith said:"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,0 -
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)glw said:
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).SouthamObserver said:However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
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So are you saying that the concerns of large parts of the country, whatever they are, must be forced underground to fester rather than allowed a voice?Scott_P said:
Not really.Casino_Royale said:The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
Large parts of the country are fundamentally unhappy with immigration, and have responded positively to the Brexit dog-whistle, although you would have to be profoundly deaf not to have heard it0 -
Immigration and perpetually increasing population.another_richard said:How are you proposing that hole be filled ?
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@ Mortimer
The LD split will be more like 67/33 for Remain.0 -
BTW without my generous natureanother_richard said:
Osborne has borrowed £180bn more than he said he would.AlastairMeeks said:So how are Leave proposing that the government should fill the hole in the budget caused by Brexit? Or are they just going to pretend there isn't one?
By the end of 2016 that will be approaching £240bn.
Annual GDP is approximately £60bn lower than Osborne said it would be as well.
How are you proposing that hole be filled ? Osborne's over-borrowing would be even larger.
The 2010/11 government borrowing (over which Osborne had limited effect) came in IIRC £16bn under prediction.
It was only when Osborne had full control over government finances that the over-borrowing happened.
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Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.SouthamObserver said:
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)glw said:
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).SouthamObserver said:However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
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That Sun cover is seriously crap. Content, design, message, it's all over the place, not to mention that godwful pun.
And bear in mind I've been exposed to TSE's puns.0 -
glw said:
Good point, Osborne's threat is complete bollocks.HurstLlama said:They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.
I still don't get it! Sorry!brokenwheel said:
Cabbage leaf...Jobabob said:
Vote leaf? What?TheScreamingEagles said:Tomorrow's front page of The Sun looks like a Daily Mash cover
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7428347280935157780 -
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.0
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Scott_P said:
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...Fenster said:A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Do you trust Boris IDS Gove Grayling and Patel to do anything for the NHS? Really? If you think Cameron and Osborne are bad wait till you see the hard right ubers!Danny565 said:"We're bastards who want to cut your services and increase your taxes. So go and vote to keep us in office".
It's an....unconventional tactic from Cameron and Osborne, at least.0 -
Demonising them is easier than having to engage with their concerns. There are xenophobes and racists in this country - there are even a few on this board - but most people are not like that. Preferring to mix with people of your own kind is very often a proxy for things are shit and I want to change them but feel powerless to.EPG said:
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"SouthamObserver said:of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
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There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.Scott_P said:
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...Fenster said:A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.0 -
The most supportive person on here is a Remainer.RealBritain said:Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.
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I believe Albert Einstein had a quote which relates to that.glw said:
Immigration and perpetually increasing population.another_richard said:How are you proposing that hole be filled ?
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Ain't happening though. Sometimes it seems inevitable, but tribal loyalty in the face of party labels making no sense anymore in some cases wins out every time.AnneJGP said:
We need a complete re-boot of our political parties, all of them.Casino_Royale said:
Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.AnneJGP said:
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.Casino_Royale said:
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.AnneJGP said:
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?Casino_Royale said:
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.MarqueeMark said:
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....kle4 said:
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.MikeL said:
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:kle4 said:But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Leave = You Lose Cash
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.0 -
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.EPG said:What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
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Yes, if they did that the Brexiteers would just look vindictive. Boris would want to generate an all-hands-to-the-pump narrative. Whether the public would be so forgiving is a different matter, but huffily paralysing the government while the economy tanks would just look petty and mean.Scott_P said:
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...Fenster said:A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?0 -
The rumour from (I believe) Steve Hilton was that the Conservative top echelons became incredibly frustrated in their first term when most of the big reforms they thought were necessary turned out to be impossible because of EU membership. As such, everything was set up for a massive orchestrated row with the EU which would lead to Cameron leading Leave and winning a whopping great victory, with disentanglement from the EU being the crowning achievement of his premiership. Somewhere along the line, apparently, the plan went wrong.Cookie said:I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
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In my personal experience this is true of people almost exactly half the time. The logical, none-too-earth shattering corollary of this is that half of this it is xenophobia, and half of it isn't.SouthamObserver said:
Demonising them is easier than having to engage with their concerns. There are xenophobes and racists in this country - there are even a few on this board - but most people are not like that. Preferring to mix with people of your own kind is very often a proxy for things are shit and I want to change them but feel powerless to.EPG said:
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"SouthamObserver said:of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
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Perhaps most interestingly, the figures for those three splits give the following Remain/Leave FPTP 'seats' - i.e. how many seats each would win with this admittedly broad brush modelling applied to 2015 numbers:
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.5/0.5
LAB 0.6/0.4
Remain seats: 361
Leave seats: 289
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.55/0.45
Remain seats: 201
Leave seats: 449
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.5/0.5
Remain seats: 150
Leave seats: 500
Any post referendum GE is going to create a few hundred marginals, if Leave/Remain is for any reason an unresolved issue...0 -
Cameron is a pragmatist, not a revolutionary. As a result, he over-promises and under-delivers.Chelyabinsk said:
The rumour from (I believe) Steve Hilton was that the Conservative top echelons became incredibly frustrated in their first term when most of the big reforms they thought were necessary turned out to be impossible because of EU membership. As such, everything was set up for a massive orchestrated row with the EU which would lead to Cameron leading Leave and winning a whopping great victory, with disentanglement from the EU being the crowning achievement of his premiership. Somewhere along the line, apparently, the plan went wrong.Cookie said:I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
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Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."0 -
Incidentally how do all these Labour MPs know that postal votes are so bad for Remain ?
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
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If Vote Leave try to disown the fright budget, I wonder if there are any damaging leaks lined up showing that members of the Brexit campaign have advocated something even tougher in Cabinet?RealBritain said:
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.SouthamObserver said:
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)glw said:
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).SouthamObserver said:However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
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Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.Fenster said:
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.Scott_P said:
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...Fenster said:A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.0 -
Of course - it's an absolute no brainer.SouthamObserver said:Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?0 -
So a return to sensible house prices, a readjustment of our economy (perfectly timed as an the collapse in exchange rates will encourage investment and exports here) and an incentive for migrants to return home...Jobabob said:
Along with thousands plunged into negative equity, X pts off GDP, and spiralling unemployment. As we have seen today.SouthamObserver said:Surely the honest Leave response to the Osborne story is that it would be a price worth paying. That is what you believe, isn't it?
Doesn't sound so bad does it....0 -
Absolutely. Ozzy will definitely have some tricks up his sleeve to disarm the Brexiteers. A massive cut in overseas aid would be hilarious, utterly taking the wind out of the Right's sails.williamglenn said:
If Vote Leave try to disown the fright budget, I wonder if there are any damaging leaks lined up showing that members of the Brexit campaign have advocated something even tougher in Cabinet?RealBritain said:
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.SouthamObserver said:
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)glw said:
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).SouthamObserver said:However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
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Betrayal is the word that will feature large whichever side wins, after this.SouthamObserver said:
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.EPG said:What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
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Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.SouthamObserver said:Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.0
