Incidentally how do all these Labour MPs know that postal votes are so bad for Remain ?
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
My own theory is in safe Labour seats, Labour MPs only ever had to do perfunctory campaigning, now they've had to get up close and personal, they've been shocked with what they've found, a bit like Scotland.
FWIW - From my own canvassing experience, the strongest passion for Leave is coming from Labour WC voters, but I suspect a lot of them aren't going to vote, as they aren't registered to vote/come from the social classes that historically don't vote.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Yes, if they did that the Brexiteers would just look vindictive. Boris would want to generate an all-hands-to-the-pump narrative. Whether the public would be so forgiving is a different matter, but huffily paralysing the government while the economy tanks would just look petty and mean.
Okay, so Osborne will present an emergency budget and you are confident his majority of 12 will carry it?
I could name at least 15 Tories off the top if my head who'd vote it down out of pure vindictivenwas, even if Boris, Gove and Patel voted for it.
Plaid, Labour, the Lib Dems, the Green, the Nats or the Irish parties won't vote for huge cuts.
So he's screwed. Osborne is a political locust if nothing else. He knows how to survive a fallout. No way would he deliver an emergency budget and effectively commit political suicide.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Of course - it's an absolute no brainer.
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?
Again though, the problem is that many voters (especially the swing Labour voters) aren't going to read it as "Brexit will mean I lose £x" -- they are going to see it as confirmation that "that bastard Osborne wants to take £x off me, just like always, so how do I vote to tell him where to go?".
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.
Betrayal is the word that will feature large whichever side wins, after this.
Everyone has been warned of the worst case scenario of the other sides in this debate - no one can claim afterwards to have made the decision ignorant of the potential consequence, unless ignorant by choice.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create an air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Incidentally how do all these Labour MPs know that postal votes are so bad for Remain ?
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
My own theory is in safe Labour seats, Labour MPs only ever had to do perfunctory campaigning, now they've had to get up close and personal, they've been shocked with what they've found, a bit like Scotland.
FWIW - From my own canvassing experience, the strongest passion for Leave is coming from Labour WC voters, but I suspect a lot of them aren't going to vote, as they aren't registered to vote/come from the social classes that historically don't vote.
I think that is a dangerous assumption. This is one vote that may change things while your typical WC Labour voter in a safe Northern seat knew the result of their constituency in the 2015 election in 1987...
Surely the honest Leave response to the Osborne story is that it would be a price worth paying. That is what you believe, isn't it?
Along with thousands plunged into negative equity, X pts off GDP, and spiralling unemployment. As we have seen today.
So a return to sensible house prices, a readjustment of our economy (perfectly timed as an the collapse in exchange rates will encourage investment and exports here) and an incentive for migrants to return home...
Incidentally how do all these Labour MPs know that postal votes are so bad for Remain ?
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
My own theory is in safe Labour seats, Labour MPs only ever had to do perfunctory campaigning, now they've had to get up close and personal, they've been shocked with what they've found, a bit like Scotland.
FWIW - From my own canvassing experience, the strongest passion for Leave is coming from Labour WC voters, but I suspect a lot of them aren't going to vote, as they aren't registered to vote/come from the social classes that historically don't vote.
I think that is a dangerous assumption. This is one vote that may change things while your typical WC Labour voter in a south Northern seat knew the result of their constituency in the 2015 election in 1987...
I think we're seeing the wisdom index effect, where even in the polls that Leave are leading in, the voters think Remain are going to win this.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.
If Vote Leave try to disown the fright budget, I wonder if there are any damaging leaks lined up showing that members of the Brexit campaign have advocated something even tougher in Cabinet?
Maybe, Mr. Glenn and probably Priti Patel might be among the prime suspects . However, in my mind that is irrelevant.
Osborne is saying this is what will have to happen if we vote leave. That is clearly bollocks. There may well be an economic hit of some scale which reduces government revenues. How HMG deals with that is another caudron of octopus. It could for example cut the DfID budget, It could do all sorts of things. Osborne has chosen to threaten us rather than inform us of a risk and I am not sure I like that.
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.
Betrayal is the word that will feature large whichever side wins, after this.
Everyone has been warned of the worst case scenario of the other sides in this debate - no one can claim afterwards to have made the decision ignorant of the potential consequence, unless ignorant by choice.
Worst case scenarios should be worked out & presented in good time, calmly. Chucking something in at this late stage is a grenade, not a warning.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Of course - it's an absolute no brainer.
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?
Again though, the problem is that many voters (especially the swing Labour voters) aren't going to read it as "Brexit will mean I lose £x" -- they are going to see it as confirmation that "that bastard Osborne wants to take £x off me, just like always, so how do I vote to tell him where to go?".
Juncker can come over and do a repeat of Delors at the TUC. "Look how much nastier the Tories would be if the EU didn't keep them in line."
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
Incidentally how do all these Labour MPs know that postal votes are so bad for Remain ?
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
My own theory is in safe Labour seats, Labour MPs only ever had to do perfunctory campaigning, now they've had to get up close and personal, they've been shocked with what they've found, a bit like Scotland.
FWIW - From my own canvassing experience, the strongest passion for Leave is coming from Labour WC voters, but I suspect a lot of them aren't going to vote, as they aren't registered to vote/come from the social classes that historically don't vote.
I think that is a dangerous assumption. This is one vote that may change things while your typical WC Labour voter in a safe Northern seat knew the result of their constituency in the 2015 election in 1987...
Anecdotal as hell, but I like I'm sure others have come across people who have never voted and never wished to, who are claiming intent to vote this time only. If even a small portion of those people follow through, it could be critical, and those people are unlikely to be Remainers in the same numbers as Leavers.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for moss of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
That's what I thought. I guess Cameron and the Master Strategist had other ideas?
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.
Betrayal is the word that will feature large whichever side wins, after this.
Everyone has been warned of the worst case scenario of the other sides in this debate - no one can claim afterwards to have made the decision ignorant of the potential consequence, unless ignorant by choice.
Worst case scenarios should be worked out & presented in good time, calmly. Chucking something in at this late stage is a grenade, not a warning.
I've not seen anything brand new - just extensions to previous arguments - so I think the principle people are going in eyes open is sound, unless they've closed their eyes willingly.
1. Most leavers hate/don't believe anything Osborne says so doubt his so called emergency budget will have any impact. If anything it will encourage a few more leavers to go to the polls
2. Anyone who looks at the detail will say why are you cutting all these things but leaving overseas aid alone
3. Anyone who thinks a bit more will come back to the point the the whole issue from IFS report et al is how you close a gap in 2019/2020 if you really think their is a gap (ie vis a vis balanced budget plans) so why are you proposing an extra budget before that.
So it all comes across as nasty and vindictive by yesterday's man. Goes down well in Guardian land but tanks in Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun land.
This said as a leaver who keeps a reasonably close eye on leave opinion
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
I strongly suspect Corbyn wants Brexit to win.
He's been OUT for over 40 years... I don't know why he's pretending to be for IN now but it doesn't wash with me.
He'll vote LEAVE in the privacy of the polling booth, with the spirits of Benn and Foot urging him on.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
If it is then its nice to see an actual emergency budget (it's a year late George). If not the IFS needs to find another random figure generator to ensure they don't generate the same fairyland figure everytime...
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
There has been a far greater variance between Ozzy's forecasts in the past and what has happened than £30bn yet none of these extremities happened. This is pure Osborne, not Brexit.
1. Most leavers hate/don't believe anything Osborne says so doubt his so called emergency budget will have any impact. If anything it will encourage a few more leavers to go to the polls
2. Anyone who looks at the detail will say why are you cutting all these things but leaving overseas aid alone
3. Anyone who thinks a bit more will come back to the point the the whole issue from IFS report et al is how you close a gap in 2019/2020 if you really think their is a gap (ie vis a vis balanced budget plans) so why are you proposing an extra budget before that.
So it all comes across as nasty and vindictive by yesterday's man. Goes down well in Guardian land but tanks in Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun land.
This said as a leaver who keeps a reasonably close eye on leave opinion
I suspect overseas will take a massive hit in this scenario - enacting the Right's great wish to help ameliorate a problem of their own making will be an irony too delicious to miss.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Of course - it's an absolute no brainer.
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?
Again though, the problem is that many voters (especially the swing Labour voters) aren't going to read it as "Brexit will mean I lose £x" -- they are going to see it as confirmation that "that bastard Osborne wants to take £x off me, just like always, so how do I vote to tell him where to go?".
Juncker can come over and do a repeat of Delors at the TUC. "Look how much nastier the Tories would be if the EU didn't keep them in line."
Just how desperate are the EU leaders to keep this country in the EU? What sort of conflict are they taking into their body politic for the future? I find it hard to believe that any European leader, watching this dog-fight, is actually hoping that we vote to stay in.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for moss of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
That's what I thought. I guess Cameron and the Master Strategist had other ideas?
1975 was a good campaign and a quality debate. 2016 has been utterly dire - the worst campaign I have ever experienced.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
Good example of an oxymoron there.
A problem with continually attacking every centre of expertise as the elite, is that this works while voters feel as a sort of liberated, devil-may-care anger, and stuff the consequences. When anxiety and hesitation set in though, people naturally look for some alternative figure of and expertise to bolster their view - and the Leave camp have been noticeably poor at providing anything like this on the economic front.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
Yum! We are certainly accumulating a fine collection of quotes for Labour leaflets. Spoiled for choice.
I think Osborne's point is sound, actually - what he's doing is translating the Obscure Big Number of the IFS (which nobody has successfully challenged but which doesn't mean anything to most people) into concrete terms of tax rises and spending cuts. It's open to Leave to say no, actually we'd raise this or cut that instead, but they're then fighting on enemy terrain.
Priti Patel was pretty weak on the news IMO - "one has to be optimistic"...actually most people would settle for realistic.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
Is he? I thought Cameron and Osborne were going to cling on in defiance of the public and their party and produce a "slash and burn" emergency budget where by they take revenge like a pair of crazed dictators, on the country that has voted against them.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
When Cameron made the promise - Remain was 20 points clear.
This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
I don't think Remain wining will make much difference. I expect blood on the carpet whatever happens. The Conservatives look very split to me.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
I don't understand why he chose to hold the referendum so early in the parliament. There is an argument that he expected the migration crisis to get worse but I suspect that will turn out to be false. Maybe he just thought his own powers of persuasion would be enough to win it and thought it was better to fight while he wasn't a complete lame duck. That didn't quite work as planned...
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
When Cameron made the promise - Remain was 20 points clear.
And the Labour party was resolutely pro-EU and centrist.
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow. But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
That is not entirely contradictory. If a short-term downturn does not affect your employment or income, it is not at all the same thing as having cash taken from you.
If a short-term economic downturn means your raise or promotion is delayed or dropped, it still is not the same as having money taken out of your pocket.
Turns out 2015 was a pyrrhic victory for Cameron and the Tories. He'd have done better to lose.
I remember when this comment section was positively ecstatic in May 2015, but by May 2016 it despised the men who did it. Now there's ingratitude.
For myself, I am not ungrateful. Mr Cameron did at least give us this referendum. What it has thrown up, on all sides, is far better out in the open than suppressed.
Had the Conservatives not won GE 2015, we would have been driving serenely into the next phases of the EU project, without the slightest idea that all this unrest was lurking beneath the surface.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
YES had effectively won before the campaign began. The result was better than 60/40, with only two authorities voting NO. 2016 has been much more uncertain. But I think Cameron's contribution has been detrimental to REMAIN. I cannot believe that REMAIN would be in a worse position now if he had remained silent, as Wilson did. It has also been idiotic of Labour and the other REMAIN parties not to form a proper cross party campaign. Labour's focus on 'workers rights' is nothing but a minor sideshow.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
Yum! We are certainly accumulating a fine collection of quotes for Labour leaflets. Spoiled for choice.
I think Osborne's point is sound, actually - what he's doing is translating the Obscure Big Number of the IFS (which nobody has successfully challenged but which doesn't mean anything to most people) into concrete terms of tax rises and spending cuts. It's open to Leave to say no, actually we'd raise this or cut that instead, but they're then fighting on enemy terrain.
Priti Patel was pretty weak on the news IMO - "one has to be optimistic"...actually most people would settle for realistic.
You have a point. Could cut aid budget (popular with leavers I expect)
Cut the ECJ tax cut to big business (at least £8 billion a year).
Increase corporation tax by 2%.
Job done. Also rubs Osborne's nose in the fact that he can't go after tax avoiders inside the EU.
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
My thought is that Cameron started to read the briefing on the Wilson strategy, agree to a referendum, negotiate some trivial changes and then ... but he was and remains too arrogant to finish reading the paper. So he never read about Wilson's strategy for actually allowing the referendum to take place but be able to lead a united party afterwards.
I rather think that Cameron became leader too early. He needed to fail a few times to blunt his obvious arrogance.
Turns out 2015 was a pyrrhic victory for Cameron and the Tories. He'd have done better to lose.
I remember when this comment section was positively ecstatic in May 2015, but by May 2016 it despised the men who did it. Now there's ingratitude.
For myself, I am not ungrateful. Mr Cameron did at least give us this referendum. What it has thrown up, on all sides, is far better out in the open than suppressed.
Had the Conservatives not won GE 2015, we would have been driving serenely into the next phases of the EU project, without the slightest idea that all this unrest was lurking beneath the surface.
Is it unrest or is it just what happens when a referendum is fought using modern electoral 'political technology' rather than simply debating the issues in an intelligent and honest manner, treating the public with respect?
As the great Roy Hattersley wrote - as MP for Sparkbrook - when constituents came to me worried about immigration I had to dissemble, but when the constituency became majority immigrant I knew I was alright.
Roy Hattersley also said, "I dont believe any ethnic group should be in a majority over others"
His view, was that the native British, should be reduced to less than 50% of the population.
There is a word for this, "Ethnic Cleansing". I'm guessing this positive ethnic cleansing was not for countries in Asia, or Africa though.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
The £30bn black hole is not Ozzy's figure - it's an independent assessment from the IFS.
Good example of an oxymoron there.
A problem with continually attacking every centre of expertise as the elite, is that this works while voters feel as a sort of liberated, devil-may-care anger, and stuff the consequences. When anxiety and hesitation set in though, people naturally look for some alternative figure of and expertise to bolster their view - and the Leave camp have been noticeably poor at providing anything like this on the economic front.
Lord Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England 2003-2013 Lord Digby Jones, Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) 2000-2006 James Dyson, inventor and entrepeneur
That's some well respected expertise just off the top of my head.
I don't understand why he chose to hold the referendum so early in the parliament. There is an argument that he expected the migration crisis to get worse but I suspect that will turn out to be false. Maybe he just thought his own powers of persuasion would be enough to win it and thought it was better to fight while he wasn't a complete lame duck. That didn't quite work as planned..
Not just migration crises to potentially deal with. Another greek crisis or other economic downturn, some unforeseen silly proposal upcoming from the commission. I think there are many reasons he may have concluded better a sub par deal now which is winnable than a better deal later which is not winnable due to other factors.
I don't think Remain wining will make much difference. I expect blood on the carpet whatever happens. The Conservatives look very split to me.
Oh indeed, but Cameron personally is gone immediately if Leave win, but if Remain win there is a chance, if slim, to try to contain it (the only scenario I can see to prevent immediate challenge is to assure Leavers he will stand down within a year, when they will think they can get a Leaver to win - but that would not be certain).
Cutting off a leg to slow the spread of zombie infection might prove fatal in itself, but it delays the end and may give a chance of finding a solution.
As the great Roy Hattersley wrote - as MP for Sparkbrook - when constituents came to me worried about immigration I had to dissemble, but when the constituency became majority immigrant I knew I was alright.
Roy Hattersley also said, "I dont believe any ethnic group should be in a majority over others"
His view, was that the native British, should be reduced to less than 50% of the population.
There is a word for this, "Ethnic Cleansing". I'm guessing this positive ethnic cleansing was not for countries in Asia, or Africa though.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
Even though the sun has set on Labour in Scotland, they still haven't accepted or understood why that is. Still using the language of 'cult' and 'brainwashed' against their own former voters.
We're probably 5 years ahead of how its going to pan out for Labour in England.
As the great Roy Hattersley wrote - as MP for Sparkbrook - when constituents came to me worried about immigration I had to dissemble, but when the constituency became majority immigrant I knew I was alright.
Roy Hattersley also said, "I dont believe any ethnic group should be in a majority over others"
His view, was that the native British, should be reduced to less than 50% of the population.
There is a word for this, "Ethnic Cleansing". I'm guessing this positive ethnic cleansing was not for countries in Asia, or Africa though.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
Even though the sun has set on Labour in Scotland, they still haven't accepted or understood why that is. Still using the language of 'cult' and 'brainwashed' against their own former voters.
We're probably 5 years ahead of how its going to pan out for Labour in England.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
So Labour are finished, the Tories are finished and the Lib Dems are finished. What the hell happens next...
The rise of the loons.
Personally, I dont think Conservatives are finished. Boris & Gove will come out well respected. UKIP, could take the WWC like SNP took Labour's Scots.
Rise of the Loons? Not sure I agree with the term 'loon' but otherwise, perhaps. Look across Europe. The Right is on the rise. In the US, ditto Trump .
I don't understand why he chose to hold the referendum so early in the parliament. There is an argument that he expected the migration crisis to get worse but I suspect that will turn out to be false. Maybe he just thought his own powers of persuasion would be enough to win it and thought it was better to fight while he wasn't a complete lame duck. That didn't quite work as planned..
Not just migration crises to potentially deal with. Another greek crisis or other economic downturn, some unforeseen silly proposal upcoming from the commission. I think there are many reasons he may have concluded better a sub par deal now which is winnable than a better deal later which is not winnable due to other factors.
I don't think Remain wining will make much difference. I expect blood on the carpet whatever happens. The Conservatives look very split to me.
Oh indeed, but Cameron personally is gone immediately if Leave win, but if Remain win there is a chance, if slim, to try to contain it (the only scenario I can see to prevent immediate challenge is to assure Leavers he will stand down within a year, when they will think they can get a Leaver to win - but that would not be certain).
Cutting off a leg to slow the spread of zombie infection might prove fatal in itself, but it delays the end and may give a chance of finding a solution.
I've always been great at metaphors
Good night.
I think I said goodnight over an hour ago on the last thread. I mean it this time ....
Guido This Osborne emergency post #Brexit budget, will it be before or after the World War 3 War Cabinet? Asking for a friend.
Lovely comment, Miss Plato.
That, "Asking for a friend" tag can be so effective. Do you follow CatFoodBreath over on Twitter? He (although I am sure it is a lady thar writes the script) uses it to great effect.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
So Labour are finished, the Tories are finished and the Lib Dems are finished. What the hell happens next...
The rise of the loons.
Personally, I dont think Conservatives are finished. Boris & Gove will come out well respected. UKIP, could take the WWC like SNP took Labour's Scots.
Rise of the Loons? Not sure I agree with the term 'loon' but otherwise, perhaps. Look across Europe. The Right is on the rise. In the US, ditto Trump .
I didn't mean that in an entirely derogatory sense but in the "people from the outside".
Politics will be very different I expect. Hopefully less silly PPE style games.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
So Labour are finished, the Tories are finished and the Lib Dems are finished. What the hell happens next...
The rise of the loons.
Personally, I dont think Conservatives are finished. Boris & Gove will come out well respected. UKIP, could take the WWC like SNP took Labour's Scots.
Rise of the Loons? Not sure I agree with the term 'loon' but otherwise, perhaps. Look across Europe. The Right is on the rise. In the US, ditto Trump .
I didn't mean that in an entirely derogatory sense but in the "people from the outside".
Politics will be very different I expect. Hopefully less silly PPE style games.
A Left party led by Eddie Izzard and a Right party led by David Starkey?
Apparently, Wikileaks is about to "publish enough information to indict Hillary Clinton".
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
Guido This Osborne emergency post #Brexit budget, will it be before or after the World War 3 War Cabinet? Asking for a friend.
Lovely comment, Miss Plato.
That, "Asking for a friend" tag can be so effective. Do you follow CatFoodBreath over on Twitter? He (although I am sure it is a lady thar writes the script) uses it to great effect.
While I could be wrong, I think Leave has probably won this, and I suspect the margin will be quite decent in the end.
We're going from a fight between Europhiles and Eurosceptics to one between Free Traders and Protectionists. I don't expect this one to be any prettier.
Apparently, Wikileaks is about to "publish enough information to indict Hillary Clinton".
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
I wonder if the Kremlin had anything to do with the source of the leaks? They apparently had free access to the Democratic Party's computer system.
Apparently, Wikileaks is about to "publish enough information to indict Hillary Clinton".
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
Apparently the Russian Government will as well. They supposedly have emails from her private server which show she handled top secret information.
Wrt proposed emergency budget what amuses me is that a conservative chancellor is using the Guardian to promote his policies!
I have read the IFS report as I suspect many PB posters have. A bit of a painful read as it cross refers you to 14 other reports without great links. This is essentially the IFS view on the HMT and OECD models in particular rather than its own research. The HMT model was as again people will be aware substantially discredited by this weeks CASS review.
The £20-40bn budget deficit gap is with respect to the stated desire to have a balanced budget by 2019/2020. As many PB posters have noted the UK budgetary position will not significantly change as at day 1 so suggesting an emergency post Brexit budget is a unique proposal in modern times. Hence as I have said earlier an emergency budget would be seen as both unnecessary and vindictive by many people.
As posters have noted leave has focused on ramping immigration rather than discrediting the HMT forecasts which are at the root of the IFS paper. This is sensible for Leave as it's an easier message.
That said the IFS report has so many assumptions eg around future trade deals, impact of a points based immigration system, EU response that it would be surprising and quite frankly worrying if this was used to support an emergency budget. Indeed IFS also says that a potentially more sensible approach to short term volatility would be to defer balancing the books for a year or two rather than significant budget costs.
So this so called emergency budget represents imo real lies and scaremongering from Osborne which will have very little impact on Leave as they have heard so many lies and scaremongering before.
It does though support my view that Cameron will adopt (and indeed has been adopting) a scorched earth policy and do absolutely anything to get a remain vote which isn't great for the post 23rd June position whoever wins.
Apparently, Wikileaks is about to "publish enough information to indict Hillary Clinton".
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
Not sure but isn't this pretty much what we (and the voters) knew already?
Speaking via video link from the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, Assange said that there was enough information in the emails to indict Clinton, but that was unlikely to happen under the current Attorney General, Obama appointee Loretta Lynch.
READ MORE: POLL: Most likely voters believe Clinton broke the law, half say run anyway
He does think “the FBI can push for concessions from the new Clinton government in exchange for its lack of indictment.”
I mean, IIUC the report that's already out said that she broke the rules, and you can be prosecuted for breaking the rules, no?
Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
Wilson maintained a dignified silence for moss of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
That's what I thought. I guess Cameron and the Master Strategist had other ideas?
It's difficult in today's climate where every politiican is expected to provide news every day. Look at the flak Corbyn has taken for not making more speeches up to now - and he's only LOTO. For the PM to eye the situation in contemplative silence is not realistic these days. But I think he realises that he's drained the well of his personal support.
I wonder what Attlee - he of the 1945 election eve "I have no further comment for the electorate" statement - would have made of all this?
Apparently, Wikileaks is about to "publish enough information to indict Hillary Clinton".
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
I was wondering if Trump had paid the Russian hackers to get into the DNC machine for him. It seems he and Putin have some strange macho mutual appreciation going. Maybe Putin wants Trump to win. I'd be astounded if the FIS had not hacked Hillary's server and so the should have whatever evidence that there may be against her.
From Bernstein on UK banks following Brexit: "All UK banks will get hurt. We see 40% downside in LLOY (UK pure-play) and BARC (London/Cards/IB proxy play); RBS will fare better relatively and so will HSBC (LN listing) benefitting from a weakening Sterling in spite of strong London gearing. "
'Quite right. As the IFS is forecasting a black hole of £30bn how the hell else is the government supposed to fill it? Mirror story says Darling has rubber stamped it. '
Has Darling rubber stamped it or given it the kiss of death ?
The bulk of the fantasy £30 bn would be filled by no more EU contributions and slashing the foreign aid give-aways.
Comments
FWIW - From my own canvassing experience, the strongest passion for Leave is coming from Labour WC voters, but I suspect a lot of them aren't going to vote, as they aren't registered to vote/come from the social classes that historically don't vote.
I could name at least 15 Tories off the top if my head who'd vote it down out of pure vindictivenwas, even if Boris, Gove and Patel voted for it.
Plaid, Labour, the Lib Dems, the Green, the Nats or the Irish parties won't vote for huge cuts.
So he's screwed. Osborne is a political locust if nothing else. He knows how to survive a fallout. No way would he deliver an emergency budget and effectively commit political suicide.
Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....
Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
They don't see why they should go out and vote.
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.5/0.5
LAB 0.6/0.4
LIB DEM 0.67/0.33
Ref result: 51/49%
Remain seats: 287
Leave seats: 363
____
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.55/0.45
LIB DEM 0.67/0.33
Ref result: 47/53%
Remain seats: 146
Leave seats: 504
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.5/0.5
LIB DEM 0.67/0.33
Ref result: 46/54%
Remain seats: 111
Leave seats: 539
Osborne is saying this is what will have to happen if we vote leave. That is clearly bollocks. There may well be an economic hit of some scale which reduces government revenues. How HMG deals with that is another caudron of octopus. It could for example cut the DfID budget, It could do all sorts of things. Osborne has chosen to threaten us rather than inform us of a risk and I am not sure I like that.
1. Most leavers hate/don't believe anything Osborne says so doubt his so called emergency budget will have any impact. If anything it will encourage a few more leavers to go to the polls
2. Anyone who looks at the detail will say why are you cutting all these things but leaving overseas aid alone
3. Anyone who thinks a bit more will come back to the point the the whole issue from IFS report et al is how you close a gap in 2019/2020 if you really think their is a gap (ie vis a vis balanced budget plans) so why are you proposing an extra budget before that.
So it all comes across as nasty and vindictive by yesterday's man. Goes down well in Guardian land but tanks in Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun land.
This said as a leaver who keeps a reasonably close eye on leave opinion
He'll vote LEAVE in the privacy of the polling booth, with the spirits of Benn and Foot urging him on.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/tories-have-30bn-black-hole-in-spending-plans-says-ifs
If it is then its nice to see an actual emergency budget (it's a year late George). If not the IFS needs to find another random figure generator to ensure they don't generate the same fairyland figure everytime...
I think Osborne's point is sound, actually - what he's doing is translating the Obscure Big Number of the IFS (which nobody has successfully challenged but which doesn't mean anything to most people) into concrete terms of tax rises and spending cuts. It's open to Leave to say no, actually we'd raise this or cut that instead, but they're then fighting on enemy terrain.
Priti Patel was pretty weak on the news IMO - "one has to be optimistic"...actually most people would settle for realistic.
Perhaps they are just in la-la land?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/742850525486534657
If a short-term economic downturn means your raise or promotion is delayed or dropped, it still is not the same as having money taken out of your pocket.
Had the Conservatives not won GE 2015, we would have been driving serenely into the next phases of the EU project, without the slightest idea that all this unrest was lurking beneath the surface.
This Osborne emergency post #Brexit budget, will it be before or after the World War 3 War Cabinet? Asking for a friend.
Cut the ECJ tax cut to big business (at least £8 billion a year).
Increase corporation tax by 2%.
Job done. Also rubs Osborne's nose in the fact that he can't go after tax avoiders inside the EU.
MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.
I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?
I rather think that Cameron became leader too early. He needed to fail a few times to blunt his obvious arrogance.
His view, was that the native British, should be reduced to less than 50% of the population.
There is a word for this, "Ethnic Cleansing". I'm guessing this positive ethnic cleansing was not for countries in Asia, or Africa though.
WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.
Lord Digby Jones, Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) 2000-2006
James Dyson, inventor and entrepeneur
That's some well respected expertise just off the top of my head.
Cutting off a leg to slow the spread of zombie infection might prove fatal in itself, but it delays the end and may give a chance of finding a solution.
I've always been great at metaphors
Good night.
We're probably 5 years ahead of how its going to pan out for Labour in England.
Rise of the Loons? Not sure I agree with the term 'loon' but otherwise, perhaps. Look across Europe. The Right is on the rise. In the US, ditto Trump .
Cutting off a leg to slow the spread of zombie infection might prove fatal in itself, but it delays the end and may give a chance of finding a solution.
I've always been great at metaphors
Good night.
I think I said goodnight over an hour ago on the last thread. I mean it this time ....
Goodnight, all. Thanks for the discussion.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/george-osborne-threatens-punish-voters-tax-rises-defy-brexit/
That, "Asking for a friend" tag can be so effective. Do you follow CatFoodBreath over on Twitter? He (although I am sure it is a lady thar writes the script) uses it to great effect.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1283327/david-cameron-could-punish-theresa-may-by-demoting-her-for-not-playing-a-big-part-in-remain-campaign/
"Are you ready boots? Start walking..."
Politics will be very different I expect. Hopefully less silly PPE style games.
You might have noticed the Trump price just moved on Betfair. That was me. Original story on Russia Today (here), but plausible enough for me to spend a few quid.
@George_Osborne Formal notice that I shan't be voting for the blackmail budget
We're going from a fight between Europhiles and Eurosceptics to one between Free Traders and Protectionists. I don't expect this one to be any prettier.
Or
UKIP fractures as the libertarians (Richard_Tyndall) and the social conservatives (Sean_F) find they no longer have anything in common.
I have read the IFS report as I suspect many PB posters have. A bit of a painful read as it cross refers you to 14 other reports without great links. This is essentially the IFS view on the HMT and OECD models in particular rather than its own research. The HMT model was as again people will be aware substantially discredited by this weeks CASS review.
The £20-40bn budget deficit gap is with respect to the stated desire to have a balanced budget by 2019/2020. As many PB posters have noted the UK budgetary position will not significantly change as at day 1 so suggesting an emergency post Brexit budget is a unique proposal in modern times. Hence as I have said earlier an emergency budget would be seen as both unnecessary and vindictive by many people.
As posters have noted leave has focused on ramping immigration rather than discrediting the HMT forecasts which are at the root of the IFS paper. This is sensible for Leave as it's an easier message.
That said the IFS report has so many assumptions eg around future trade deals, impact of a points based immigration system, EU response that it would be surprising and quite frankly worrying if this was used to support an emergency budget. Indeed IFS also says that a potentially more sensible approach to short term volatility would be to defer balancing the books for a year or two rather than significant budget costs.
So this so called emergency budget represents imo real lies and scaremongering from Osborne which will have very little impact on Leave as they have heard so many lies and scaremongering before.
It does though support my view that Cameron will adopt (and indeed has been adopting) a scorched earth policy and do absolutely anything to get a remain vote which isn't great for the post 23rd June position whoever wins.
https://twitter.com/William_Wragg/status/742855466297004032
I notice that's a larger sample size too.
I wonder what Attlee - he of the 1945 election eve "I have no further comment for the electorate" statement - would have made of all this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10874230/Jean-Claude-Juncker-profile-When-it-becomes-serious-you-have-to-
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," he said.
Bravo, a cracking post. I hope you will put up your thoughts more often.
The poll referenced on the front page of The I is a TNS poll, and was extensively discussed on the previous two threads.
'Quite right. As the IFS is forecasting a black hole of £30bn how the hell else is the government supposed to fill it? Mirror story says Darling has rubber stamped it. '
Has Darling rubber stamped it or given it the kiss of death ?
The bulk of the fantasy £30 bn would be filled by no more EU contributions and slashing the foreign aid give-aways.