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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

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  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't voting against the budget pretty naughty? Whip withdrawal territory?
    The blackmail budget is going down very badly.
    Have I missed something, is he referring to votes on the budget given earlier this year?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,724
    edited June 2016
    Russians and British fighting again...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,042
    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    If the message is Brexit = ungovernable chaos, it proves the argument.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,363
    edited June 2016

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't voting against the budget pretty naughty? Whip withdrawal territory?
    The blackmail budget is going down very badly.
    Have I missed something, is he referring to votes on the budget given earlier this year?
    No, the brutal #Brexit budget Osborne is promising if we vote leave.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,382

    Russians and British fighting again...

    It's enough to make me Crimea River.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited June 2016



    I mean, IIUC the report that's already out said that she broke the rules, and you can be prosecuted for breaking the rules, no?

    That was the State Department IG's report. The serious report will be the FBI report, which is taking its own deliberate course. Expect it to drop in the next month or so.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    RobD said:

    Isn't voting against the budget pretty naughty? Whip withdrawal territory?
    The blackmail budget is going down very badly.
    Have I missed something, is he referring to votes on the budget given earlier this year?
    No, the brutal #Brexit budget Osborne is promising if we vote leave.
    I'm a bloody idiot :)
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
    It isn't. There are several easy ways to fill that hole starting with changing the law back to what it was pre the ECJ saying that tax avoiders could get away with it. That would net £8 billion a year and lose a £40 billion liability.

    But instead of saying that we could fill the hole by fixing Europe's interference, he says he'll go for the grannys, the nurses and the squadies.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Estobar said:

    Just came to this thread. No mention of the new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead? That's in tomorrow's i.
    I notice that's a larger sample size too.

    Link? hhas it already been covered on previous threads
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671
    OK PBers. Which is the bigger lie:

    Turkey will join the EU (it won't)
    or
    There will be emergency austerity if we vote Leave (there won't)

    ?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    GIN1138 said:

    PeterC said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    PUNGENT whiff of absolute panic from REMAIN now

    Emergency budgets, UDI on immigration

    Just insane.

    Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.

    Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....

    Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
    Wilson maintained a dignified silence for moss of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
    That's what I thought. I guess Cameron and the Master Strategist had other ideas? ;)
    It's difficult in today's climate where every politiican is expected to provide news every day. Look at the flak Corbyn has taken for not making more speeches up to now - and he's only LOTO. For the PM to eye the situation in contemplative silence is not realistic these days. But I think he realises that he's drained the well of his personal support.

    I wonder what Attlee - he of the 1945 election eve "I have no further comment for the electorate" statement - would have made of all this?
    Dunno, Nick, I wonder what would happen if the political leadership started talking honestly. You know, just dumped all this New Labour grid and instant rebuttal crap and just went back to the days when what was said in the House was what mattered.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,363

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
    It isn't. There are several easy ways to fill that hole starting with changing the law back to what it was pre the ECJ saying that tax avoiders could get away with it. That would net £8 billion a year and lose a £40 billion liability.

    But instead of saying that we could fill the hole by fixing Europe's interference, he says he'll go for the grannys, the nurses and the squadies.
    There's no way reversing that judgment would raise anything like £40bn. Labour posters on here are rightly mocked when they claim huge sums could be raised through tackling tax avoidance.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    OK PBers. Which is the bigger lie:

    Turkey will join the EU (it won't)
    or
    There will be emergency austerity if we vote Leave (there won't)

    ?

    Cameron selling Turkey to the EU... 1.5 million visa free travel... Turkey in Schengen...

    Not sure people believe that. They have been tricked & lied to, so often.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,363
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,042
    edited June 2016

    Turkey in Schengen...

    The lie apparently worked...

    Edit: To clarify - Turkey is not in and will not join Schengen.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
    It isn't. There are several easy ways to fill that hole starting with changing the law back to what it was pre the ECJ saying that tax avoiders could get away with it. That would net £8 billion a year and lose a £40 billion liability.

    But instead of saying that we could fill the hole by fixing Europe's interference, he says he'll go for the grannys, the nurses and the squadies.
    There's no way reversing that judgment would raise anything like £40bn. Labour posters on here are rightly mocked when they claim huge sums could be raised through tackling tax avoidance.
    Sorry, my mistake. I was getting those numbers from the IFS. (They said that it would start by costing £8 billion per year in lost taxes plus £40 billion being paid back)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671

    rcs1000 said:

    OK PBers. Which is the bigger lie:

    Turkey will join the EU (it won't)
    or
    There will be emergency austerity if we vote Leave (there won't)

    ?

    Cameron selling Turkey to the EU... 1.5 million visa free travel... Turkey in Schengen...

    Not sure people believe that. They have been tricked & lied to, so often.
    I don't understand. What are you trying to say?
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671

    Turkey in Schengen...

    The lie apparently worked...

    Edit: To clarify - Turkey is not in and will not join Schengen.
    Nor will it join the EU. Not can the EU give Turks visa free access to the CTA. Nor does visa free access to Schengen mean very much given that something like 120 countries worldwide have visa free access to Schengen already.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
    It isn't. There are several easy ways to fill that hole starting with changing the law back to what it was pre the ECJ saying that tax avoiders could get away with it. That would net £8 billion a year and lose a £40 billion liability.

    But instead of saying that we could fill the hole by fixing Europe's interference, he says he'll go for the grannys, the nurses and the squadies.
    Not foreign aid though...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
    You only need 326 votes to repeal the FTPA.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
    Could repeal FTPA with a simple majority.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
    Could repeal FTPA with a simple majority.
    Although there is a question of whether a royal prerogative can ever be restored.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,255
    rcs1000 said:

    OK PBers. Which is the bigger lie:

    Turkey will join the EU (it won't)
    or
    There will be emergency austerity if we vote Leave (there won't)

    ?

    As I said a few days ago I want Leave to be the result of the referendum but I also want both campaigns to lose.

    Whoever wins will see this as the blueprint for future campaigns which will be bloody awful for all of us.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671
    Story of the day:

    Discredited former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has claimed that the awarding of the 2022 World Cup to Qatar happened because the middle finger of Franz Beckenbauer’s right hand “is unusually long.” “It is a specimen,” Blatter said, though he declined to say what he meant, exactly, by “specimen.”
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
    Could repeal FTPA with a simple majority.
    Yes. Would he get it with many rebel MPs?

    Would Cameron still be party leader?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671

    rcs1000 said:

    OK PBers. Which is the bigger lie:

    Turkey will join the EU (it won't)
    or
    There will be emergency austerity if we vote Leave (there won't)

    ?

    As I said a few days ago I want Leave to be the result of the referendum but I also want both campaigns to lose.

    Whoever wins will see this as the blueprint for future campaigns which will be bloody awful for all of us.
    Democracy, and our trust in our elected representatives has been further eroded by this whole process. I'm disgusted that people I know and like constantly spout things that are obviously untrue, so desperate are they for their side to win.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,514

    GIN1138 said:

    Come Theresa get those Kitten Heels on and start walking over Bully Boys Cameron and Osborne;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1283327/david-cameron-could-punish-theresa-may-by-demoting-her-for-not-playing-a-big-part-in-remain-campaign/

    "Are you ready boots? Start walking..."

    Theresa 'I could have got a better deal' May can say, "Vote Remain and 'these boots are gonna walk all over EU'."
    If May had joined Leave, this Referendum would likely be all over by now. But she didn't. Boris and Gove did....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,514

    WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.

    So Labour are finished, the Tories are finished and the Lib Dems are finished. What the hell happens next...

    The SNP gets its greedy eyes on southern lands....
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,255

    PlatoSaid said:

    William Wragg MP
    @George_Osborne Formal notice that I shan't be voting for the blackmail budget

    A 28 year old MP who owes his seat to Cameron and Osborne's handling of the coalition. That's gratitude.
    No he owes his seat and his allegiance to his constituents. Hopefully a lot more MPs will remember this as well.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,671

    PlatoSaid said:

    William Wragg MP
    @George_Osborne Formal notice that I shan't be voting for the blackmail budget

    A 28 year old MP who owes his seat to Cameron and Osborne's handling of the coalition. That's gratitude.
    No he owes his seat and his allegiance to his constituents. Hopefully a lot more MPs will remember this as well.
    Sadly, in too many constituencies they actually owe their position to the association chairman.
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    GIN1138 said:

    Come Theresa get those Kitten Heels on and start walking over Bully Boys Cameron and Osborne;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1283327/david-cameron-could-punish-theresa-may-by-demoting-her-for-not-playing-a-big-part-in-remain-campaign/

    "Are you ready boots? Start walking..."

    Theresa 'I could have got a better deal' May can say, "Vote Remain and 'these boots are gonna walk all over EU'."
    If May had joined Leave, this Referendum would likely be all over by now. But she didn't. Boris and Gove did....
    Over? In what way?

    May is most likely LEAVE and cannot speak for REMAIN. Her heart isnt in it. She was probably lent on, like 90% of the REMAIN conservatives.

    I wouldnt be surprised if she switches to LEAVE. Not saying she will, but I wouldnt be surprised.
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    KenKen Posts: 24
    edited June 2016

    Even though the sun has set on Labour in Scotland, they still haven't accepted or understood why that is. Still using the language of 'cult' and 'brainwashed' against their own former voters.

    If you don't live in Scotland then you really have no idea how dead from the neck up Scottish Labour is. The '45 generation just hung on until they died off, to be replaced by the MPs, MSPs, councillors, their families and their mates. That's basically it up here, and has been for years.

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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    edited June 2016
    The full scale of Cameron and Osborne's calamity is starting to hit home. If, as I expect, we vote Leave what is then needed is assurance and a steady hand on the tiller.

    Instead of which their toys-out-the-pram antics have directly destabilised things.

    They really are as*holes. Sorry, whichever side you're on, they really are.
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    PlatoSaid said:

    William Wragg MP
    @George_Osborne Formal notice that I shan't be voting for the blackmail budget

    A 28 year old MP who owes his seat to Cameron and Osborne's handling of the coalition. That's gratitude.
    No he owes his seat and his allegiance to his constituents. Hopefully a lot more MPs will remember this as well.
    Well said that man!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    hunchman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rather shocking Telegraph report about the late Liberal MP Sir Clement Freud
    https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb

    I always had my suspicions, particularly his sharing of a Commons office with Cyril Smith. Interesting the timing of this coming out.
    I am rather surprised because I recall him on This Week talking about his Boarding School experiences - specifically being abused by his Housemaster!
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    edited June 2016

    Estobar said:

    Just came to this thread. No mention of the new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead? That's in tomorrow's i.
    I notice that's a larger sample size too.

    Please don't post misleading polling information on PB.

    The poll referenced on the front page of The I is a TNS poll, and was extensively discussed on the previous two threads.

    That's rather rude of you TSE. It wasn't 'intentionally misleading' information. Sorry, the 'i' headline refers to the poll but it appears to be a new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead in the Times.

    Or was this covered yesterday?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ko8mpylq7/TimesResults_160613_EUReferendum_W_Headline.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum


  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,363
    Estobar said:

    The full scale of Cameron and Osborne's calamity is starting to hit home. If, as I expect, we vote Leave what is then needed is assurance and a steady hand on the tiller.

    Instead of which their toys-out-the-pram antics have directly destabilised things.

    They really are as*holes. Sorry, whichever side you're on, they really are.

    There's no doubt that they have made a mess of the campaign, but spelling out the consequences of leaving is not throwing toys out of the pram.
  • Options
    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    As well as the new YouGov 7% Leave lead there's a new 4% Leave lead by BMG:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    Estobar said:

    Estobar said:

    Just came to this thread. No mention of the new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead? That's in tomorrow's i.
    I notice that's a larger sample size too.

    Please don't post misleading polling information on PB.

    The poll referenced on the front page of The I is a TNS poll, and was extensively discussed on the previous two threads.

    That's rather rude of you TSE. It wasn't 'intentionally misleading' information. Sorry, the 'i' headline refers to the poll but it appears to be a new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead in the Times.

    Or was this covered yesterday?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ko8mpylq7/TimesResults_160613_EUReferendum_W_Headline.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum


    all the polls have been covered, chill.

    Saw a news report on the BBC basically they were in Kent doing a voxpox of the wwc in kent. They tried to say this refurundum isn't really about the E.U or even immigration but type of country we want to be. Saying it is about modernity vs. not wanting change. Ofcourse you know who they thought was for modernity.
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    edited June 2016
    Commenting on the new 4% Leave lead BMG's Research Director, Dr Michael Turner, said:

    “For the second time since BMG started it's EU referendum tracker (in October 2015) Leave is polling ahead with a clear shift in voting intentions since February. This shift mirrors that recently seen in both phone and online polls, suggesting a clear event-driven effect on voting intentions"

    http://us13.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a6f31a0cbdd181eda1843a07a&id=1c577b4fa2
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    nunu said:

    Estobar said:

    Estobar said:

    Just came to this thread. No mention of the new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead? That's in tomorrow's i.
    I notice that's a larger sample size too.

    Please don't post misleading polling information on PB.

    The poll referenced on the front page of The I is a TNS poll, and was extensively discussed on the previous two threads.

    That's rather rude of you TSE. It wasn't 'intentionally misleading' information. Sorry, the 'i' headline refers to the poll but it appears to be a new YouGov showing a 7% Leave lead in the Times.

    Or was this covered yesterday?
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ko8mpylq7/TimesResults_160613_EUReferendum_W_Headline.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum


    all the polls have been covered, chill.

    Saw a news report on the BBC basically they were in Kent doing a voxpox of the wwc in kent. They tried to say this refurundum isn't really about the E.U or even immigration but type of country we want to be. Saying it is about modernity vs. not wanting change. Ofcourse you know who they thought was for modernity.
    Oh ok it's difficult to see the wood for the trees on here, or rather, the polls for the (bad) pop puns ;)
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    Estobar said:

    The full scale of Cameron and Osborne's calamity is starting to hit home. If, as I expect, we vote Leave what is then needed is assurance and a steady hand on the tiller.

    Instead of which their toys-out-the-pram antics have directly destabilised things.

    They really are as*holes. Sorry, whichever side you're on, they really are.

    There's no doubt that they have made a mess of the campaign, but spelling out the consequences of leaving is not throwing toys out of the pram.

    This needed maturity not kindergarten politics. They're basically not getting their way so they are ramping up the destabilising rhetoric.

    Still, how could we have expected those born into noblesse oblige to take democracy seriously? No wonder the love the EU.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,385
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    Considering the government only have a majority of 12 if more tory Leavers follow this line that could blunt Remains arguments very sharply.
    Nadine said earlier that the 12 would evaporate if he tried it.
    Government MPs blocking their own budget would surely need to a snap GE. Not sure that'd be in anyone's interest in a post-Brexit crisis.
    You can't have a snap GE with the fixed term parliaments act unless you have sufficient votes in the house. Cameron closed that door off, possibly by accident. Oops...
    Could repeal FTPA with a simple majority.
    Yes - but that would take 6 to 9 months to go through both Houses of Parliament by which time it would be too late for a "snap" GE.

    It's also worth bearing in mind that we are coming into the July to December six months of the year when there is actually very little time to do anything much in Parliament - long Summer recess then back for about two weeks then immediately off for another 3 weeks for the Party Conferences. Then back 2nd week of October by which time even if a GE is called immediately the election day is in November which is considered too late in the year.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005
    Broken, sleazy REMAIN on the slide?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    AnneJGP said:

    Fenster said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenster said:

    A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.

    In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...

    I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
    There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.

    Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?

    I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
    Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
    Yum! We are certainly accumulating a fine collection of quotes for Labour leaflets. Spoiled for choice. :)

    I think Osborne's point is sound, actually - what he's doing is translating the Obscure Big Number of the IFS (which nobody has successfully challenged but which doesn't mean anything to most people) into concrete terms of tax rises and spending cuts. It's open to Leave to say no, actually we'd raise this or cut that instead, but they're then fighting on enemy terrain.

    Priti Patel was pretty weak on the news IMO - "one has to be optimistic"...actually most people would settle for realistic.
    Leave could say 'Let the PSBR take the strain by delaying targets for a Budget Surplus etc'.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Well said. I'm amazed at how Leavers view Cameron and Osborne pointing out the significant negative consequences of Brexit as a "betrayal"
    It isn't. There are several easy ways to fill that hole starting with changing the law back to what it was pre the ECJ saying that tax avoiders could get away with it. That would net £8 billion a year and lose a £40 billion liability.

    But instead of saying that we could fill the hole by fixing Europe's interference, he says he'll go for the grannys, the nurses and the squadies.
    Not foreign aid though...
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/741059849988014081
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    weejonnie said:

    kle4 said:

    PeterC said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    PUNGENT whiff of absolute panic from REMAIN now

    Emergency budgets, UDI on immigration

    Just insane.

    Indeed... I think the general idea now is just to create and air of crisis as much as they can and hope enough sticks to drag them over the finishing line.

    Even if REMAIN does win how on earth they think they can govern after all this madness is beyond me but it's best to leave them to it I suppose....

    Those that Remember, did Wilson make a complete and utter fool of himself in '75 like Cameron has in the past few weeks?
    Wilson maintained a dignified silence for most of the campaign. He gave a couple of speeches in the final week. All heavy lifting for IN was done by a cross party group Jenkins, Heath Thorpe, Whitelaw, Williams ....
    Did In expect to win from the start? My theory is Cameron knew it would be close, and didn't think he could afford to sit it out given he will be out if Leave win, and that's why he had used different tactics. This is also why he's been so aggressive, even though it will cause deep problems in the event of a Remain win, because as bad as that is, a win still gives him a chance to try to resolve that, whereas Leave is out immediately.
    When Cameron made the promise - Remain was 20 points clear.
    And the Labour party was resolutely pro-EU and centrist.
    In 1975 the Labour Party campaigned for Out - against the wishes of its own Government.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,204
    Good point Sunil, does our EU contribution count towards our 0.7% of GDP target? A lot of it is aid for the poorer regions within the EU.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005
    RobD said:

    Good point Sunil, does our EU contribution count towards our 0.7% of GDP target? A lot of it is aid for the poorer regions within the EU.

    Per capita:

    £279 million divided by 1.2 billion Indians = 23p
    £8.5 billion divided by 500 million EU citizens = £17
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005
    Almost exactly a year ago, there was an Ipsos-MORI showing a remain lead of 44 points!

    REMAIN 66
    LEAVE 22

    https://web.archive.org/web/20150618173649/https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Polmon_June15_lableaders_topline2.pdf/
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
    Walk in silence
    Don't walk away, in silence
    See the danger
    Always danger

    Endless talking
    Life rebuilding
    Don't walk away

    Walk in silence
    Don't turn away, in silence
    Your confusion
    My illusion

    Worn like a mask of self-hate
    Confronts and then dies
    Don't walk away

    People like you find it easy
    Naked to see
    Walking on air
    Hunting by the rivers, through the streets, every corner

    Abandoned too soon
    Set down with due care
    Don't walk away in silence
    Don't walk away
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
    Walk in silence
    Don't walk away, in silence
    See the danger
    Always danger

    Endless talking
    Life rebuilding
    Don't walk away

    Walk in silence
    Don't turn away, in silence
    Your confusion
    My illusion

    Worn like a mask of self-hate
    Confronts and then dies
    Don't walk away

    People like you find it easy
    Naked to see
    Walking on air
    Hunting by the rivers, through the streets, every corner

    Abandoned too soon
    Set down with due care
    Don't walk away in silence
    Don't walk away
    I've told myself so many times before
    But this time I think I mean it for sure
    We have reached a full stop
    Nothing's going to save us from the big drop

    Reached our natural conclusion
    Outlived the illusion
    I hate being in these situations
    That call for diplomatic relations
    If I only knew the answer
    Or I thought we had a chance
    Or I could stop this
    I would stop this thing
    From spreading like a cancer

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence

    We've been running around in circles all year
    Doing this and that and getting nowhere
    This will be the last time
    I think I said that last time

    If I only had a potion
    Some magical lotion
    That could stop this
    I would set the wheels in motion

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
    Walk in silence
    Don't walk away, in silence
    See the danger
    Always danger

    Endless talking
    Life rebuilding
    Don't walk away

    Walk in silence
    Don't turn away, in silence
    Your confusion
    My illusion

    Worn like a mask of self-hate
    Confronts and then dies
    Don't walk away

    People like you find it easy
    Naked to see
    Walking on air
    Hunting by the rivers, through the streets, every corner

    Abandoned too soon
    Set down with due care
    Don't walk away in silence
    Don't walk away
    I've told myself so many times before
    But this time I think I mean it for sure
    We have reached a full stop
    Nothing's going to save us from the big drop

    Reached our natural conclusion
    Outlived the illusion
    I hate being in these situations
    That call for diplomatic relations
    If I only knew the answer
    Or I thought we had a chance
    Or I could stop this
    I would stop this thing
    From spreading like a cancer

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence

    We've been running around in circles all year
    Doing this and that and getting nowhere
    This will be the last time
    I think I said that last time

    If I only had a potion
    Some magical lotion
    That could stop this
    I would set the wheels in motion

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence
    Sorry Sunil, in a battle of the goths, joy division always wins!
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Murdoch newspaper conspiracy theory number 98. The Times front page shows a racegoer at Royal Ascot in EU-themed finery. Readers of the Racing Post will see her pictured alongside her companion sporting UK-themed dress. Together they represent Leave and Remain but the Times shows only the latter.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,005
    edited June 2016

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
    Walk in silence
    Don't walk away, in silence
    See the danger
    Always danger

    Endless talking
    Life rebuilding
    Don't walk away

    Walk in silence
    Don't turn away, in silence
    Your confusion
    My illusion

    Worn like a mask of self-hate
    Confronts and then dies
    Don't walk away

    People like you find it easy
    Naked to see
    Walking on air
    Hunting by the rivers, through the streets, every corner

    Abandoned too soon
    Set down with due care
    Don't walk away in silence
    Don't walk away
    I've told myself so many times before
    But this time I think I mean it for sure
    We have reached a full stop
    Nothing's going to save us from the big drop

    Reached our natural conclusion
    Outlived the illusion
    I hate being in these situations
    That call for diplomatic relations
    If I only knew the answer
    Or I thought we had a chance
    Or I could stop this
    I would stop this thing
    From spreading like a cancer

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence

    We've been running around in circles all year
    Doing this and that and getting nowhere
    This will be the last time
    I think I said that last time

    If I only had a potion
    Some magical lotion
    That could stop this
    I would set the wheels in motion

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence
    Sorry Sunil, in a battle of the goths, joy division always wins!
    Yeah? Well, the best England song was by their New Order incarnation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re4aDJL3heA
  • Options
    What's going on? I thought talk of tuppence on the pound was taboo!; and by a tory chancellor to boot. Well we'll see, but if my memory serves me correctly, haven't we just lived through a period where the entire worldwide banking system was on the point of collapse but every sinew was still stretched to ensure the bill would be paid by the have nots?
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    I dont see how TSE concludes the LEAVE will be rejected because LEAVE has a 1% lead.

    MoE alone can produce a greater difference alone. LEAVE has momentum and it is growing.

    I suspect also that many are shy LEAVErs. LEAVE is racist, little England & suicidal right?

    Leave in Silence, by Depeche Mode:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
    Walk in silence
    Don't walk away, in silence
    See the danger
    Always danger

    Endless talking
    Life rebuilding
    Don't walk away

    Walk in silence
    Don't turn away, in silence
    Your confusion
    My illusion

    Worn like a mask of self-hate
    Confronts and then dies
    Don't walk away

    People like you find it easy
    Naked to see
    Walking on air
    Hunting by the rivers, through the streets, every corner

    Abandoned too soon
    Set down with due care
    Don't walk away in silence
    Don't walk away
    I've told myself so many times before
    But this time I think I mean it for sure
    We have reached a full stop
    Nothing's going to save us from the big drop

    Reached our natural conclusion
    Outlived the illusion
    I hate being in these situations
    That call for diplomatic relations
    If I only knew the answer
    Or I thought we had a chance
    Or I could stop this
    I would stop this thing
    From spreading like a cancer

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence

    We've been running around in circles all year
    Doing this and that and getting nowhere
    This will be the last time
    I think I said that last time

    If I only had a potion
    Some magical lotion
    That could stop this
    I would set the wheels in motion

    What can I say
    I don't want to play anymore
    What can I say
    I'm heading for the door
    I can't stand this emotional violence
    Leave in silence
    Leave in silence
    Sorry Sunil, in a battle of the goths, joy division always wins!
    Yeah? Well, the best England song was by their New Order incarnation.
    with John Barnes rapping, no less!
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    WWC have finally woken up. I would not be surprised if Labour is finished in England as in Scotland.

    So Labour are finished, the Tories are finished and the Lib Dems are finished. What the hell happens next...
    If we follow the Scottish experience, people flock to the single group of nationalists, while the various groups of unionists remember they viscerally dislike each other and even up dividing the unionist vote.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    chestnut said:

    and end up dividing the unionist vote.

  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    http://us13.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a6f31a0cbdd181eda1843a07a&id=1c577b4fa2

    "Perhaps worryingly for Remain it is young people, who have a poor track record for turning out at elections and referendums, that appear to be an increasingly key source of support for the campaign. Some two thirds of 18-24s (65%) are in favour of Remain compared to just 22% in favour of Leave (13% Undecided).

    Conversely, some 60% of the those aged 65+, say they will vote to Leave, compared to just one third (31%) who say they will vote Remain (9% undecided).

    Readers should note; when asked how likely they would be to vote in an EU Referendum if it were tomorrow; more than three quarters (76%) of those aged 65+ said they would definitely vote, whereas just 44% of 18-24s said the same."
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Is this BMG poll a thing. I'm not totally familiar with them
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BMG have been polling for a while now.

    Last May they had Con 34 Lab 34 UKIP 12 LD 10 when used by the New Statesman. That's not too dissimilar to the more renowned companies.

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Estobar said:

    The full scale of Cameron and Osborne's calamity is starting to hit home. If, as I expect, we vote Leave what is then needed is assurance and a steady hand on the tiller.

    Instead of which their toys-out-the-pram antics have directly destabilised things.

    They really are as*holes. Sorry, whichever side you're on, they really are.

    There's no doubt that they have made a mess of the campaign, but spelling out the consequences of leaving is not throwing toys out of the pram.
    This is not the consequence of Leaving. This is the Chancellor of the Exchequer trying to create the most destabilising and shocking serious of tax rises and spending cuts that violate his own manifesto commitments in order to try to upset people. There is no need for any of it.

    Of course the IFS (who do not have a perfect record) have produced a report suggesting a £30bn black hole for if we leave/Osborne's election manifesto. Same Really Big Number (TM) for both. Yet guess which one got this nonsense.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I keep seeing references elsewhere to George actively shorting the economy by talking up market chaos. This blackmail budget is going down really badly - a mixture of WTF/seeing straight through it/he won't be in the job anyway.

    I thought the SINdy threats got a bit dirty - this stuff from Osborne is off the charts.

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    EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    So, we might get a situation where Remain wins but Dave and George are immediately castrated and defenestrated?
    :lol:
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I woke up and read this news and saw the instant 57 MPs revolt and am incredulous. I couldnt wait to get to work to read pb and post! Surely this is a massive gamble by George and more and more likely a huge miscalculation. If the 57 MPs grows and Labour join them his position will be untenable.

    By trying to get the subject back on to the economy he's made such an outlandish last minute budget out of nowhere surely he is harming his economic credibility and making leave look like the good guys? Can anyone remain or leave tell me why he is doing this and what are the positives for remain?
This discussion has been closed.