Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
It's front page of Metro. far more important.
If I were Boris I'd respond by saying if Brexit wins next week Osborne won't be delivering any more budgets. Again. Ever.
Then he would expose his whole dalliance with Brexit as the career move that it is. It might be too late to damage the Leave campaign though.
Okay, I get that. So get Gisela Stuart to do it. It would be a killer dirty move if the Brexit camp appeal to the hugely important Labour voters next week and tell them a Brexit vote will spell the end for the two posh boys in charge, Cameron and Osborne.
I even feel dirty suggesting it. But I reckon it could win the vote.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:
Leave = You Lose Cash
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one before
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrong
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.
Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?
It's the biggest slide on the stock market since ... February. Get a grip.
Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?
TSE There is a new series that has just started on TV over here called Brain Dead. It is set in the political world of DC, but aliens, in the form of ant-like creatures, take over humans by crawling into their heads. The resultant infected human is incapable of political compromise and loves 1980s music, having it playing incessantly.
Are you proof that these aliens really existing and are already here?
With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."
This is just like Indyref all over again?
In the piece I wrote this week I wondered whether Leave would be able to paper over the cracks for the next ten days. After hearing Priti's first budget this morning followed by Nigel's rather smug xenophobia this evening it doesn't look too promising
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow. But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one before
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrong
Well they didn't even get that close, 1% lead was hung parliament territory with Labour most seats.
My one reservation about Michael Gove is his close friendship with Osborne. I can't understand it. One man is principled and thoughtful the other is ruthless and repulsive.
I'd like Leave to threaten Osborne but I don't think Gove would sanction it. Shame.
of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"
There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.
He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.
As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
As a leaver I am also glad Osborne is fighting back.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
Not really.
Large parts of the country are fundamentally unhappy with immigration, and have responded positively to the Brexit dog-whistle, although you would have to be profoundly deaf not to have heard it
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.
They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.
The issue was whether Osborne would be in a position to deliver a budget. He might be, even if it is voted down, which would probably be met by Cameron calling a GE.
Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.
Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.
Remain has been far too waffly up to now.
Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.
Remain now needs the public to also think:
Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.
Must be totally specific, no waffle.
I am not a Tory -- but it seems to me that the Tory party won't recover from this.
No one likes a bully. No one liked to be bullied.
There won't be anything left for Osborne and Cameron to lead after the Referendum.
The Tory Party will recover and endure. It's what they always do in the end.
However, Cameron and Osborne are finished whatever happens. Leave or remain, they've destroyed their credibility with their own party and the wider electorate...
It's so bad they are now scrabbling around preying that Jezza Corbyn and Tom Watson can bring Lab voters to their senses and save them...
Tim was 100% right about these two all the way along. And now the Tory Party and wider electorate can see how useless they are their times very nearly up whatever happens.
I agree with YBarddCwsc - I can't see the Tories recovering from this, especially not if Remain win. They've spent the last six weeks mocking and belittling half their own voters. I'm certainly not voting next time around for a Tory party led by Amber Rudd. But can you imagine Alastair Meeks voting for a Tory party led by a leaver? Either waym they lose half their voters. It didn't need to be like this. But it would have taken better politicians than David Cameron and George Osborne to avoid it. I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
The only consolation for the Tories is that I can't see Labour prospering out of this either. Did you see that video that John Harris did from Stoke? They have lost the English working class like they lost the Scottish. They would be treated with contempt by that section of the electorate if they breezily continued with their Europhilia.
There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.
He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.
As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
As a leaver I am also glad Osborne is fighting back.
The GUARANTEED way for Cameron to win is to promise to execute Osborne in the event of a Remain vote.
With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."
If Leaving takes two years then that funding is committed for that period.
One the one hand no need for an emergency budget, on the other hand no bonus for the NHS or free unicorns either.
I think some Leavers on here are rather missing the point. This isn't Ozzy's final act of vengeance; he's merely saying that these are the sort of cuts that will have to be implemented if even a middle-ranging Brexit Armeggedon ensues. Who actually delivers it - Osborne, Gove, McDonnell - is neither here nor there.
Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.
They might manage to stick it out for a couple of weeks on a 'we cant afford any immediate political turmoil' line, but they'd be gone by the party conference, no question. The party would force them out within a month of any Brexit vote, IMHO.
Their successor would stand on unravelling any budget measures considered deliberatively punitive.
Indeed, I see the likelihood of Cameron and Osborne being in post by the conference season as about sub-25% at the moment. If Brexit wins, they go - whether that's the day after or a week or so down the line. If Remain narrowly win, they'll be forced out either through a bitter Tory civil war or after being persuaded to stand down in the interests of party unity.
The only scenario where I can imagine them staying in post is, as I said recently, a 55%+ emphatic Remain win. And even then I wouldn't give them much more than 18 months.
It seems very likely we're looking at the last few weeks of Cameron's premiership.
Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
I can't see how a Cameron government could survive post-Brexit. It would be extraordinarily difficult for his government to get bills through parliament.
I don't want Cameron to go but I can't see how he'd be anything other than a dead man walking. Notwithstanding the fact I suspect he'd resign anyway.
As the great Roy Hattersley wrote - as MP for Sparkbrook - when constituents came to me worried about immigration I had to dissemble, but when the constituency became majority immigrant I knew I was alright.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:
Leave = You Lose Cash
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
I've been trying for years to out-grow my childish responses to 'Conservatives', because I recognise that my innate dislike of them springs from adverse childhood experiences and not from rational motives.
This display gives a very sound rational basis to my innate reaction. Horrible man.
We need a complete re-boot of our political parties, all of them.
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.
Quite. It doesn't come across in the way it is supposed to at all, stitch-up?
Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?
Stick to advertising Roger!
Have a heart hunchman! Can't you do your financial punditry somewhere else? We don't all want to end up selling the Big Issue
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Finally finished the modelling to 2015 constituencies/voters for party split.
Some huge lorry loads of salt necessary, and at least a 1% statistical MOE because of some very minor party votes ignored, but some very interesting outcomes.
With the following inputs:
Party - R/L Split CON 0.5 0.5 LAB 0.6 0.4 LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05 BNP 0.5 0.5 DUP 0.3 0.7 GREEN 0.95 0.5 INDPT 0.5 0.5 PC 0.75 0.25 SF 0.95 0.05 SDLP SNP 0.65 0.35 UUP 0.6 0.4 UKIP 0.05 0.95
Remain wins 52/48
But with the following
CON 0.45 0.55 LAB 0.55 0.45 LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05 BNP 0.5 0.5 DUP 0.3 0.7 GREEN 0.95 0.5 INDPT 0.5 0.5 PC 0.75 0.25 SF 0.95 0.05 SDLP SNP 0.65 0.35 UUP 0.6 0.4 UKIP 0.05 0.95
Leave wins 51/49
Dialing up the Labour leavers to 0.5/0.5 whilst keeping Con 0.45/0.55 to Leave gives Leave the win at 53/47.
Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit?
How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.
They would never get it through the commons. There is let us remember over a hundred Conservative MPs who have declared for Leave.
The issue was whether Osborne would be in a position to deliver a budget. He might be, even if it is voted down, which would probably be met by Cameron calling a GE.
Apres moi le deluge.
Cameron can't call a general election without a massive vote in the house. Remember the fixed term parliament act?
People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.
As a fear tactic it would work fine if it was 'Leaving will mean x will have to happen' but it's being described as Osborne's personal choice, not necessarily an inevitability of voting Leave.
Quite. It doesn't come across in the way it is supposed to at all, stitch-up?
It needs to be specific to overcome the disingenuous calming 'it'll all be alright' claims from Remain. People need to hear how it will affect them personally in the short term.
£30 billion is 4% of public spending and only twice the bogus figure Leave claims is the EU cost. For a major economic dislocation of the kind you get when unilaterally leave your main trading bloc this is a fairly moderate adjustment in public finances.
But .... As the seventeenth century French finance minister put it, taxation is the art of plucking the most feathers from a goose for the fewest squawks. By highlighting the items most visible to the taxpayer: income tax, fuel duty and cuts to the NHS, Osborne is going for maximum squawks on this.
"The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"
Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to
The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one before
When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.
Comres did at least call the winning party right even if they got the margin wrong
Well they didn't even get that close, 1% lead was hung parliament territory with Labour most seats.
With the losses in Scotland too there is no way Labour would have won most seats if they were 1% behind the Tories
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
Not really.
Large parts of the country are fundamentally unhappy with immigration, and have responded positively to the Brexit dog-whistle, although you would have to be profoundly deaf not to have heard it
So are you saying that the concerns of large parts of the country, whatever they are, must be forced underground to fester rather than allowed a voice?
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
"We're bastards who want to cut your services and increase your taxes. So go and vote to keep us in office".
It's an....unconventional tactic from Cameron and Osborne, at least.
Do you trust Boris IDS Gove Grayling and Patel to do anything for the NHS? Really? If you think Cameron and Osborne are bad wait till you see the hard right ubers!
of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"
Demonising them is easier than having to engage with their concerns. There are xenophobes and racists in this country - there are even a few on this board - but most people are not like that. Preferring to mix with people of your own kind is very often a proxy for things are shit and I want to change them but feel powerless to.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.
Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:
Leave = You Lose Cash
They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.
Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.
But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.
The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.
I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
Whether it happens next week, or not, I now think our EU membership is on borrowed time.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
We need a complete re-boot of our political parties, all of them.
Ain't happening though. Sometimes it seems inevitable, but tribal loyalty in the face of party labels making no sense anymore in some cases wins out every time.
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
Yes, if they did that the Brexiteers would just look vindictive. Boris would want to generate an all-hands-to-the-pump narrative. Whether the public would be so forgiving is a different matter, but huffily paralysing the government while the economy tanks would just look petty and mean.
I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
The rumour from (I believe) Steve Hilton was that the Conservative top echelons became incredibly frustrated in their first term when most of the big reforms they thought were necessary turned out to be impossible because of EU membership. As such, everything was set up for a massive orchestrated row with the EU which would lead to Cameron leading Leave and winning a whopping great victory, with disentanglement from the EU being the crowning achievement of his premiership. Somewhere along the line, apparently, the plan went wrong.
of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.
But... is it really that way? Do people really feel resentment at the kids, or is it more at the immigrants, migrants, immigrants, foreigners and immigrants? How are we meant to respond as a community when people say they want their country back? "Preferring to see and hear people of your own ethnic group is a perfectly valid preference?"
Demonising them is easier than having to engage with their concerns. There are xenophobes and racists in this country - there are even a few on this board - but most people are not like that. Preferring to mix with people of your own kind is very often a proxy for things are shit and I want to change them but feel powerless to.
In my personal experience this is true of people almost exactly half the time. The logical, none-too-earth shattering corollary of this is that half of this it is xenophobia, and half of it isn't.
Perhaps most interestingly, the figures for those three splits give the following Remain/Leave FPTP 'seats' - i.e. how many seats each would win with this admittedly broad brush modelling applied to 2015 numbers:
Party - R/L Split CON 0.5/0.5 LAB 0.6/0.4
Remain seats: 361 Leave seats: 289
Party - R/L Split CON 0.45/0.55 LAB 0.55/0.45
Remain seats: 201 Leave seats: 449
Party - R/L Split CON 0.45/0.55 LAB 0.5/0.5
Remain seats: 150 Leave seats: 500
Any post referendum GE is going to create a few hundred marginals, if Leave/Remain is for any reason an unresolved issue...
I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
The rumour from (I believe) Steve Hilton was that the Conservative top echelons became incredibly frustrated in their first term when most of the big reforms they thought were necessary turned out to be impossible because of EU membership. As such, everything was set up for a massive orchestrated row with the EU which would lead to Cameron leading Leave and winning a whopping great victory, with disentanglement from the EU being the crowning achievement of his premiership. Somewhere along the line, apparently, the plan went wrong.
Cameron is a pragmatist, not a revolutionary. As a result, he over-promises and under-delivers.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.
If Vote Leave try to disown the fright budget, I wonder if there are any damaging leaks lined up showing that members of the Brexit campaign have advocated something even tougher in Cabinet?
A post Brexit budget would get voted down. The Brexit Tories would collude with Labour to vote it down and then force a vote of no confidence in the government.
In the midst of financial turmoil, the Brexiteers would vote down an emergency budget...
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
There will be no financial turmoil. Little will change in the immediate aftermath.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Mr Corbyn must be thinking all his Christmasses have come at once. Mr Osborne's latest throw makes Mr Corbyn look like a good option.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Of course - it's an absolute no brainer.
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?
Surely the honest Leave response to the Osborne story is that it would be a price worth paying. That is what you believe, isn't it?
Along with thousands plunged into negative equity, X pts off GDP, and spiralling unemployment. As we have seen today.
So a return to sensible house prices, a readjustment of our economy (perfectly timed as an the collapse in exchange rates will encourage investment and exports here) and an incentive for migrants to return home...
However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
You do spout some rubbish at times, even if your heart is in the right place, you surely know full well that Tories do not see eye-to-eye with one another at the best of times. The idea that every Tory Leaver has agreed with every stupid thing Cameron and Osborne has ever done is just nonsense, in most cases their support has been relatively lukewarm, and drive largely by a fear of something worse (Labour).
The Tory Leave leaders have been enthusiastic supporters of everything that Osborne has done. I am not talking about all Tory Leavers, some of whom (though not all) have indeed been very critical of the Chancellor - though maybe because he has not cut enough :-)
Yes, the right of the Tory party roughly is in charge of the leave campaign ; and that wing has been most supportive of Osborne's choice of cuts.
If Vote Leave try to disown the fright budget, I wonder if there are any damaging leaks lined up showing that members of the Brexit campaign have advocated something even tougher in Cabinet?
Absolutely. Ozzy will definitely have some tricks up his sleeve to disarm the Brexiteers. A massive cut in overseas aid would be hilarious, utterly taking the wind out of the Right's sails.
What on earth can you say about immigration? REMAIN can't say anything and LEAVE can't say that they are currently happy to oversee nearly 200k net immigration from non-European countries to keep the economy going. Meanwhile every single immigrant minded to stay will stay even after LEAVE. A lot of people are going to be very angry about immigrants regardless of the result.
This is also absolutely true. Betrayal will be a word that features large after Leave wins.
Betrayal is the word that will feature large whichever side wins, after this.
Surely the key point and the reason for Osborne's statement:
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Yes - but the key is if they truly think that will happen, or just that Osborne says he personally will do that. The latter is not as effective.
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.
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https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/742825144536715264?lang=en-gb
More likely the Tory Party would see that these two had gone utterly mad and they'd know it was be time to pull the plug.
As I've said before, this Party has got rid of far greater politicians than Cameron and Osborne in their time.
I even feel dirty suggesting it. But I reckon it could win the vote.
You don't fight the sort of all-out, highly-choreographed campaign the Government has, with every advantage, for months, and still end up with a string of phone and online polls with clear Leave leads less than 10 days before the vote unless the electorate have a serious issue.
The country is fundamentally unhappy with our EU relationship, and wants significant change.
We have a winner
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3641755/Clement-Freud-child-abuser-Former-Liberal-MP-molested-girls-young-10-TV-documentary-reveals-two-victims-tell-pain.html
In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.
But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe
Half the population have always believed it, and now they are trying to convince the sceptics.
I'd like Leave to threaten Osborne but I don't think Gove would sanction it. Shame.
I can see no scenario where Brexit occurs and Cameron and Osborne carry on in office reaping their revenge on the British people. It won't happen.
Large parts of the country are fundamentally unhappy with immigration, and have responded positively to the Brexit dog-whistle, although you would have to be profoundly deaf not to have heard it
Apres moi le deluge.
I just don't get why Cameron suddenly became so personally invested in the EU.
The only consolation for the Tories is that I can't see Labour prospering out of this either. Did you see that video that John Harris did from Stoke? They have lost the English working class like they lost the Scottish. They would be treated with contempt by that section of the electorate if they breezily continued with their Europhilia.
Next.
It's an....unconventional tactic from Cameron and Osborne, at least.
One the one hand no need for an emergency budget, on the other hand no bonus for the NHS or free unicorns either.
If they then propose to put in a punishing budget they will look vindictive because that is exactly what they are being.
What is more, I suspect many know this is the case. It looks like a crass threat from a very sore loser because that is exactly what it is.
But Clement Freud was both an MP and BBC.
Their successor would stand on unravelling any budget measures considered deliberatively punitive.
Indeed, I see the likelihood of Cameron and Osborne being in post by the conference season as about sub-25% at the moment. If Brexit wins, they go - whether that's the day after or a week or so down the line. If Remain narrowly win, they'll be forced out either through a bitter Tory civil war or after being persuaded to stand down in the interests of party unity.
The only scenario where I can imagine them staying in post is, as I said recently, a 55%+ emphatic Remain win. And even then I wouldn't give them much more than 18 months.
It seems very likely we're looking at the last few weeks of Cameron's premiership.
I can't see how a Cameron government could survive post-Brexit. It would be extraordinarily difficult for his government to get bills through parliament.
I don't want Cameron to go but I can't see how he'd be anything other than a dead man walking. Notwithstanding the fact I suspect he'd resign anyway.
This display gives a very sound rational basis to my innate reaction. Horrible man.
We need a complete re-boot of our political parties, all of them.
I know BoZo is a lunatic, but even he is not that daft, surely?
By the end of 2016 that will be approaching £240bn.
Annual GDP is approximately £60bn lower than Osborne said it would be as well.
How are you proposing that hole be filled ?
Some huge lorry loads of salt necessary, and at least a 1% statistical MOE because of some very minor party votes ignored, but some very interesting outcomes.
With the following inputs:
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.5 0.5
LAB 0.6 0.4
LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05
BNP 0.5 0.5
DUP 0.3 0.7
GREEN 0.95 0.5
INDPT 0.5 0.5
PC 0.75 0.25
SF 0.95 0.05
SDLP
SNP 0.65 0.35
UUP 0.6 0.4
UKIP 0.05 0.95
Remain wins 52/48
But with the following
CON 0.45 0.55
LAB 0.55 0.45
LIB DEM 0.85 0.15
APNI 0.95 0.05
BNP 0.5 0.5
DUP 0.3 0.7
GREEN 0.95 0.5
INDPT 0.5 0.5
PC 0.75 0.25
SF 0.95 0.05
SDLP
SNP 0.65 0.35
UUP 0.6 0.4
UKIP 0.05 0.95
Leave wins 51/49
Dialing up the Labour leavers to 0.5/0.5 whilst keeping Con 0.45/0.55 to Leave gives Leave the win at 53/47.
This is knife edge close.
But .... As the seventeenth century French finance minister put it, taxation is the art of plucking the most feathers from a goose for the fewest squawks. By highlighting the items most visible to the taxpayer: income tax, fuel duty and cuts to the NHS, Osborne is going for maximum squawks on this.
The LD split will be more like 67/33 for Remain.
The 2010/11 government borrowing (over which Osborne had limited effect) came in IIRC £16bn under prediction.
It was only when Osborne had full control over government finances that the over-borrowing happened.
And bear in mind I've been exposed to TSE's puns.
Do you honestly think Osborne will risk presenting a emergency budget which would likely be voted down? Can you imagine how febrile the Tory atmosphere will be post Brexit? Do you think Osborne will have the authority to throw his weight around? It'd be suicide, especially with a majority of, what, 12?
I don't want Cameron and Osborne to go but they won't last till the conference if Brexit happens. They'll be handed the cyanide and the revolver or the option of exile.
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.5/0.5
LAB 0.6/0.4
Remain seats: 361
Leave seats: 289
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.55/0.45
Remain seats: 201
Leave seats: 449
Party - R/L Split
CON 0.45/0.55
LAB 0.5/0.5
Remain seats: 150
Leave seats: 500
Any post referendum GE is going to create a few hundred marginals, if Leave/Remain is for any reason an unresolved issue...
"But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe."
Is it from canvassing or are they just talking bollox (again) ?
The whole Remain campaign up to now has been far, far too waffly.
"Leave will damage the economy" is meaningless to 95% of people.
In order for people to get the message you have to tell them "You will lose £x".
No ifs, no buts, no mucking around.
My only question is - I recommended this exact strategy on here last night - we know Dave reads PB - so am I due commission like Sunil is from The Sun?
Doesn't sound so bad does it....
Personally, I've described myself as about 70% Leave 30% Remain - there is a point where the price would not be worth it, but with hyperbolistic claims the order of the day, I don't know how to calculate where that point may be or how likely it really is, hence focusing more on the abstract sovereignty aspects, where the balance is overwhelming for Leave.