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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

As with other recent referendum polls there’s been a big swing to Leave, it is a reflection of the poor position Remain find themselves in that they’ll be delighted with a 1% per cent lead.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2016
    Going down the drain for REMAIN...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    edited June 2016
    Adam Ludlow of ComRes is going to be on tomorrow's PB/Polling matters TV show with Keiran, Shadsy, and Professor Matthew Goodwin
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Remain down 6 :o

    Pipping Toint!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,218
    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules

    Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
    Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
    Any evidence for that bullshit?
    Well if you disagree and think there are plenty of xenophobic immigrant haters on here I will bow to your knowledge
    No I disagree that the 'typical Leave supporter or voter in the country as a whole' is a "xenophobic immigrant hater". You have evidence for that bullshit?
    If you do not believe that immigration is at the forefront of the minds of a large % of those planning to vote Leave you have not been out in country for months nor looked at opinion poll detailed data .
    Mark- it must be tough for people to try and come to terms with the fact that they are on the side of racists and blind ignorance and prejudice. Cue Brexit.

    People can be right for the wrong reasons.
    kle4- from everything that I've read from you over the years.... I actually think that you are the most thoughtful, rationale, reasonable and compassionate leaver that pervades this strange place, called pbCOM. But, that said, you are still wrong. You are on the wrong side of history. And it is not even like you have got it slightly wrong, you haven't. You are really wrong.
    We shall soon see. I have certainly been wrong before. I only hope that, whichever side wins, neither side is completely right about how bad it will be.

    But I thank you for the complement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    And yes, I've just Rickrolled PB.

    My work here is done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,533
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Adam Ludlow of ComRes is going to be on tomorrow's PB/Polling matters TV show with Keiran, Shadsy, and Professor Matthew Goodwin

    Remainer packed panel.....?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Adam Ludlow of ComRes is going to be on tomorrow's PB/Polling matters TV show with Keiran, Shadsy, and Professor Matthew Goodwin

    Remainer packed panel.....?
    Nope.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,196
    edited June 2016
    Stark_Dawning said:

    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!

    We've really seen over the past few days what a dark little mental place some of our Remainers are posting from.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    What George Osborne will do to the UK electorate if they vote leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    That's just people interpreting the issue differently - they are willing to see an economic slowdown in general terms, just not if it affects them. One reason Remainers are right, there will be surprised and angry people come a Brexit, despite all the warnings.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Stark_Dawning said:

    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!

    I did say that the Aussie Points system would be a VERY popular policy... That probably was a turning point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Yep. Time to take the gloves off.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    kle4 said:

    In a contradictory finding, three in five Brits – 61% – say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to see EU immigration controls tightened, which Brexit would allow.

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    That's just people interpreting the issue differently - they are willing to see an economic slowdown in general terms, just not if it affects them. One reason Remainers are right, there will be surprised and angry people come a Brexit, despite all the warnings.

    Not just economics but immigration. Even if people vote LEAVE, they will wake up again on Monday morning and the children at their local school will still have the same faces and the childrens' parents will still speak the same language. LEAVErs aren't going to get their country back; if your country doesn't include Indians and Poles, then it's gone.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Shame that Osborne's spent most of the past six years loudly proclaiming tax rises/spending cuts and then backing down.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/742826298997911552
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    I am not a Tory -- but it seems to me that the Tory party won't recover from this.

    No one likes a bully. No one liked to be bullied.

    There won't be anything left for Osborne and Cameron to lead after the Referendum.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Thing is the ECJ has ruled £40 billion of our taxes illegal. So when we leave the EU we can get that money and fill the hole the boy George says has opened up.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2016
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Problem is Cameron and Osborne won't be in a job to deliver this "retribution" post Brexit?

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rottenborough said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Yep. Time to take the gloves off.
    Get some real fear stories out? You wouldn't consider the idea that the fear stories we have already had might, perhaps, have blunted that line of attack.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,533
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    The question for the Less Immigration scenario was: How?

    The question for the Savage Cuts scenario is: Why?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    GIN1138 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!

    I did say that the Aussie Points system would be a VERY popular policy... That probably was a turning point.
    Certainly the turning point. Ozzy trying to turn it back with the 2p income tax wheeze
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    Lie harder with a vengeance?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,859
    On a scale of 1-10, how happy is TSE that there is a small Remain lead so he can use his pun?

    I'm calling.. 8.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Is that it? Is that "the worst pun in PB history" TSE was promising us if he got a half decent remain poll? I must say I am disappointed but then Remain rarely fail to disappoint do they?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2016
    Similar story in the Times.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742825088739905538
    Maybe he has been taking advice from someone a Sinn Fein remainer about punishment beatings.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to

    The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,859
    old_labour said:

    What George Osborne will do to the UK electorate if they vote leave.

    Osborne might need to emigrate for his own safety if we Vote Leave.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,247
    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited June 2016
    rottenborough said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Yep. Time to take the gloves off.
    Indeed - if I was Cameron I would announce right now the actual date of an emergency budget if Leave wins.

    I know somebody last night said Purdah might / would prevent that.

    Well, I'm not sure of the actual rules. Even if it couldn't be formally announced to the Commons or on a Treasury Press Release I would have thought Cameron could announce it verbally.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    On the basis of their GE performance I'd put leave 5 ahead,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!

    I did say that the Aussie Points system would be a VERY popular policy... That probably was a turning point.
    Certainly the turning point. Ozzy trying to turn it back with the 2p income tax wheeze
    Project Terror has been launched.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,859
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.

    Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2016
    YBarddCwsc said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    I am not a Tory -- but it seems to me that the Tory party won't recover from this.

    No one likes a bully. No one liked to be bullied.

    There won't be anything left for Osborne and Cameron to lead after the Referendum.
    The Tory Party will recover and endure. It's what they always do in the end.

    However, Cameron and Osborne are finished whatever happens. Leave or remain, they've destroyed their credibility with their own party and the wider electorate...

    It's so bad they are now scrabbling around preying that Jezza Corbyn and Tom Watson can bring Lab voters to their senses and save them...

    Tim was 100% right about these two all the way along. And now the Tory Party and wider electorate can see how useless they are their times very nearly up whatever happens.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TSE There is a new series that has just started on TV over here called Brain Dead. It is set in the political world of DC, but aliens, in the form of ant-like creatures, take over humans by crawling into their heads. The resultant infected human is incapable of political compromise and loves 1980s music, having it playing incessantly.

    Are you proof that these aliens really existing and are already here?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,358
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    We've really seen over the past few days what a dark little mental place some of our Remainers are posting from.

    Middlesbrough?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    It's front page of Metro. far more important.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,247
    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    No way would I vote Conservative with Osborne neat the top of the party, both he and Cameron will have to f*ck off before I vote for the party again.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MikeL said:

    rottenborough said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Yep. Time to take the gloves off.
    Indeed - if I was Cameron I would announce right now the actual date of an emergency budget if Leave wins.

    I know somebody last night said Purdah might / would prevent that.

    Well, I'm not sure of the actual rules. Even if it couldn't be formally announced to the Commons or on a Treasury Press Release I would have thought Cameron could announce it verbally.
    What's Cameron doing with the £25bn in EU/Aid money whilst he's whacking up taxes and cutting services?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    MikeL said:

    rottenborough said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    Yep. Time to take the gloves off.
    Indeed - if I was Cameron I would announce right now the actual date of an emergency budget if Leave wins.

    I know somebody last night said Purdah might / would prevent that.

    Well, I'm not sure of the actual rules. Even if it couldn't be formally announced to the Commons or on a Treasury Press Release I would have thought Cameron could announce it verbally.
    I'm sure he could let it be known when there would be one via a media lunch or two.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AnneJGP said:



    The question for the Savage Cuts scenario is: Why?

    And who? As is won't be George Wonder.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    GIN1138 said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    MikeL said:

    Guardian front page - exactly what I suggested on here last night.

    Specify a list of specific cuts and specific tax rises.

    Remain has been far too waffly up to now.

    Public thinks Leave = Less Immigration.

    Remain now needs the public to also think:

    Leave = Income Tax up x%, VAT up x%, tuition fees up £x etc etc.

    Must be totally specific, no waffle.

    I am not a Tory -- but it seems to me that the Tory party won't recover from this.

    No one likes a bully. No one liked to be bullied.

    There won't be anything left for Osborne and Cameron to lead after the Referendum.
    The Tory Party will recover and endure. It's what they always do in the end.

    However, Cameron and Osborne are finished whatever happens. Leave or remain, they've destroyed their credibility with their own party and the wider electorate...

    It's so bad they are now scrabbling around preying that Jezza Corbyn and Tom Watson can bring Lab voters to their senses and save them...

    Tim was 100% right about these two all the way along. And now the Tory Party and wider electorate can see how useless they are their times very nearly up whatever happens.
    When the Tory party finish off Osborne, give him an extra kicking from me.

    Thanks.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2016
    Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    chestnut said:

    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    On the basis of their GE performance I'd put leave 5 ahead,
    The government did better than ComRes at the GE
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,859
    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    It's front page of Metro. far more important.
    That's true, but it's headlined as "Now Osborne plays the tax card"

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    I think this is more "A Good Day to Lie Hard" i.e. the shit one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this referendum are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,135
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    ie same as every election strategy by anyone ever.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    Casino_Royale said:

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.

    It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    old_labour said:

    Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541

    Pincer movement with Darling based on experts' predicted black hole.

    Vote out and face 2p on income tax, to plug the gap.

    How many more front pages?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    MTimT said:

    TSE There is a new series that has just started on TV over here called Brain Dead. It is set in the political world of DC, but aliens, in the form of ant-like creatures, take over humans by crawling into their heads. The resultant infected human is incapable of political compromise and loves 1980s music, having it playing incessantly.

    Are you proof that these aliens really existing and are already here?

    That sounds more like Sunil.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.

    Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
    Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,533
    old_labour said:

    Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541

    Osborne thinks he'll get to give another Budget? Lolololol!!!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rottenborough said:

    Jobabob said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It all started going wrong for Remain when Gove and Boris unleashed their 'Australian' points-based immigration system. What a sublime piece of subliminal messaging that was - summoning up (more or less) images of cork-hatted bushmen throwing abos on the barbie. Nothing twangs the heartstrings of us Poms like the lusty outdoor romanticism of the Australian way. Poor Osborne and his dry economic stats never stood a chance!

    I did say that the Aussie Points system would be a VERY popular policy... That probably was a turning point.
    Certainly the turning point. Ozzy trying to turn it back with the 2p income tax wheeze
    Project Terror has been launched.
    I'm not sure it's going to work. Even if it does, there will be hordes of very angry leavers.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to

    The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
    I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    glw said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.

    It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.

    The Tory Leavers can't say that though, can they?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,859
    AnneJGP said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.

    Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
    Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
    We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.

    But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited June 2016
    glw said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.

    It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.
    The pro-European Tories could defect en mass to a new SDP and lead a government of national unity with Labour and the Lib Dems. [/fantasy land]
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    Sean_F said:

    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SouthamObserver said:

    glw said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.

    It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.

    The Tory Leavers can't say that though, can they?

    That's why it's such a clever move by Osborne. He has form.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,358
    MikeL said:

    Indeed - if I was Cameron I would announce right now the actual date of an emergency budget if Leave wins.

    I know somebody last night said Purdah might / would prevent that.

    Well, I'm not sure of the actual rules. Even if it couldn't be formally announced to the Commons or on a Treasury Press Release I would have thought Cameron could announce it verbally.

    I think purdah applies to the Civil Service, not the individual Cabinet members.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Looking at those front pages it comes across to me as a threat by Osborne. If you don't vote the way I want you to this is what I will do to you.

    I am not sure that will go down to well. I am feckin certain that I will not be threatened or bullied by my own government.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Scott_P said:

    With Vote Leave going round the studios today "guaranteeing" future public spending that is not currently funded directly from Westminster, curious how they will now argue we "don't need a budget..."

    This is just like Indyref all over again?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit? ;)
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    edited June 2016
    Tomorrow's front page of The Sun looks like a Daily Mash cover

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834728093515778
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    old_labour said:

    Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541

    People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    This was the Guardian not the Mirror, fortunately for him
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    Metro more important imho.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    I expected to the "dramatic news" trailed to be a huge swing with comres too. Maybe what we're looking might end up as a very narrow leave win, which will have all sorts of implications for all those MPs who want to stall the Brexit journey in the Commons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    edited June 2016
    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to

    The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
    I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
    Depends if they look at the small print
  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    edited June 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    The Tory Leavers can't say that though, can they?

    Why not? It seems very likely that Cameron will either go or be pushed if Leave win, and I can't imagine his replacement keeping Osborne around after all this rubbish.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Quite right. As the IFS is forecasting a black hole of £30bn how the hell else is the government supposed to fill it? Mirror story says Darling has rubber stamped it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,218
    Is Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' about to do to Leave what his inheritance-tax announcement did to Gordon's leadership all those years ago? Yes, history does have a habit of repeating itself, but if I were a Leaver I wouldn't panic... yet.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    It's front page of Metro. far more important.
    If I were Boris I'd respond by saying if Brexit wins next week Osborne won't be delivering any more budgets. Again. Ever.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    AnneJGP said:

    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
    Baron Darling of Roulanish to you :triumph:
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    glw said:

    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    No way would I vote Conservative with Osborne neat the top of the party, both he and Cameron will have to f*ck off before I vote for the party again.
    I'm similar but I think I could only go back to the Tories if there was a serious day of reckoning for Osborne et al.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    GIN1138 said:

    Who in LEAVE will be the first one to come out and say Osborne won't be in any position to deliver a budget after Brexit? ;)

    How do you know? Cameron and Osborne can just refuse to resign. They could call an emergency budget by Wednesday 29th.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,247
    SouthamObserver said:

    glw said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Don't get me wrong, it's not good for us Leavers. But, at the same time, I think most people are now wise to his game.

    It doesn't even make sense, if Leave wins Osborne is toast. In fact a swathe of senior Tories will see the end of their careers.

    The Tory Leavers can't say that though, can they?

    Perhaps it's time to up the ante. Vote Leave to terminate Osborne's career would be popular.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' about to do to Leave what his inheritance-tax announcement did to Gordon's leadership all those years ago? Yes, history does have a habit of repeating itself, but if I were a Leaver I wouldn't panic... yet.

    Hah, that's what I'm writing about now.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Daily Mirror says Vote Remain for More Osborne.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2016
    BenedictWhite said:

    old_labour said:

    Same story in the Mirror. It looks coordinated.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742834375717441541

    People are going to think this is just vindictive of Osborne. Looks nuts to me.
    It does look like they are in the last chance saloon and trying desperately for something, anything, to threaten the British people with.

    And these threats coming from these two look stunningly awful as well.

    But maybe it'll stick this time. We'll see.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    "The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only pollster to have the Tories ahead at the last general election"

    Their last pre election poll had the Tories one point ahead. They were pretty much as far off as everyone else.

    I was just changing the thread header as you posted that, I've changed it to

    The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the only phone pollster to have the Tories consistently ahead at the last general election , and their turnout model, which they’ve worked so hard to develop,
    I still disagree with holding up ComRes as being much more accurate than other phone pollsters at the last election. ICM were as good if not better over the whole campaign.
    ICM had it tied in their final poll and Labour ahead in the one before
    When you're 6%/7% off the correct result, being 1% closer isn't much to shout about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,533
    Jobabob said:

    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    Quite right. As the IFS is forecasting a black hole of £30bn how the hell else is the government supposed to fill it? Mirror story says Darling has rubber stamped it.
    Darling? Alistair Darling? The guy who lost half a TRILLION pounds down the back of the sofa between Statements to the House?

    Please, bring him on....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited June 2016
    AnneJGP said:

    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    Well he's apparently persuaded Mr Darling to go along with it & support him.
    Lots. The FT is tanking and there's still a week to go. In the last two days £40 billion has been wiped off the value of shares. I wonder whether Priti Patel is going to amend the budget she prented this morning?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,247
    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    GideonWise said:

    There just be a decent bunch of Conservative MPs out there who now want to take down Osborne. Forget Cameron, he hardly even matters, it's Osborne who needs to be destroyed. Osborne plus his assortment of toadys.

    He really is a piece of work, isn't he?
    We've had weeks of rubbish about Turkey joining the EU, unworkable Australian points systems, £350m a week to be spent on the NHS (by chief python, John Redwood of all people), crap about terrorists and EU passports, and god knows what else.

    As a Remainer I'm glad Osborne is fighting back.
    You're welcome to him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Fenster said:

    rottenborough said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    It's front page of Metro. far more important.
    If I were Boris I'd respond by saying if Brexit wins next week Osborne won't be delivering any more budgets. Again. Ever.
    Then he would expose his whole dalliance with Brexit as the career move that it is. It might be too late to damage the Leave campaign though.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    HYUFD said:

    old_labour said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Guardian readers aren't the group Osborne needs to win over (and most of them don't like him anyway).

    No but he needs Guardian readers to turn out and vote for his campaign, the swing voters in this election are Times and Mirror readers not Sun readers
    I am unsure what effect a large photo Osborne's mug on the front page of the Mirror will have on Labour voters.
    This was the Guardian not the Mirror, fortunately for him
    It is all over the Mirror front page as well with a large photo.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FPT ...

    It is amazing how things have changed. I went back to the town I lived in when I was in Spain all those years ago. Back then it was a mix of Catalans, immigrants from other parts of Spain, a few gypsies and a handful of expats. Now it is completely different: loads of sub-Saharan Africans, North Africans, Romanian shops. It was almost unrecognisable. If you live through change you often don't register it, but going back after 15 years it smacked me hard in the face.

    For Lleida read any town in England. I remember the Kentish Town of my youth: largely white working class (English and Irish), Greek and Turkish Cypriot, some West Indians. Almost everyone in council or privately rented accommodation. It was rough and ready. Not like that now. I do miss it.

    I am lucky and have moved on. My nostalgia is an indulgence. But for a lot of people it must be an ache, a physical pain. They have been left behind as everything has changed. They have been dumped on. Of course they're angry, of course they feel unheard, of course they feel a level of hostility to the newcomers - whether hipsters and millionaires in Kentish Town or immigrants in Canning Town. It's totally natural and completely understandable. It's not bigoted, it's not xenophobic, it's not racist. A few Remainers on here need to get their heads round that.

    I don't blame disillusioned, disenfranchised working class people for voting Leave. It makes total sense to me. I just don't think it is the solution. It won't make things better. But it is a logical reaction to all they have been through and go through now everyday.

    However, wealthy, right wing, Tory Leave leaders; they do deserve nothing but contempt. Posing as champions of people who they have spent the last six years grinding into the ground. It's sickening.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,776
    Casino_Royale said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    But a significant majority of more than two thirds – 68% – at the same time insist they are not willing to lose any cash at all personally to reduce the number of migrants coming in from Europe.

    Which means the obvious card for Remain to play is:

    Leave = You Lose Cash
    They've already played it. Now they are planning to play it harder.
    We've had Lie Hard - to be followed by Lie Harder.....
    This is Lie Hard with a Vengeance.

    Or possibly A Good Day to Lie Hard.
    Every day I am further staggered by the ill-will this referendum is revealing. This is trying to win by blackmail. Where does the law draw the line with trying to coerce votes by menaces? Is it OK because the CotE does it?
    We always knew Osborne was a nasty piece of work.

    But none of knew just how nasty he could get.
    All right, let's suppose he gets his way & the voters are frightened into voting Remain.

    The anti-EU feeling will still be there in the country. He wants to force it underground.

    I wonder how Dr Wollaston feels about this? Poor woman.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,073
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Is Ozzy's 'Brexit Budget' about to do to Leave what his inheritance-tax announcement did to Gordon's leadership all those years ago? Yes, history does have a habit of repeating itself, but if I were a Leaver I wouldn't panic... yet.

    BF Leave has drifted out slightly since the announcement. Just saying.
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