politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on How Conservative Leavers could gift Labou
Options
Comments
-
Thank you.TOPPING said:
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.Luckyguy1983 said:
And still you limp on.TOPPING said:
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or
2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.0 -
TSE much as I'm broadly on your side ascribing such subtlety to the voters is something we on PB are over apt to do.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.0 -
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.Casino_Royale said:
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:-AlastairMeeks said:Also on the theme of how long Brexit would take:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
0 -
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.Sean_F said:
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Much like at GE 2015.
My nose tells me this is going to be close.0 -
I'm like the Leavers "What did the Roman's ever do for us"TCPoliticalBetting said:
I remember when it was difficult to walk in parts of London during Labour's time in the 70s because of the dustmen strikes etc. Hard to notice anyone living in them as the piles were so high. At least by the end of the 80s we mainly had enough spare cash to give to a beggar, if we ever saw one. Before Thatcher we struggled to look after ourselves. Advertising certainly grew dramatically during the Thatcher years, better than the 1970s - or did you not notice Roger?Roger said:
My guess; for those who remember Thatcher's time when you couldn't walk past a doorway in Central London without passing someone living in a cardboard box I think they'll see it as progress and pocket the 50 quidIndigo said:
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.Roger said:I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.0 -
A truth that is yet to sink into the heads of most REMAIN activists. The strategy seems to be "one more heave with another foreign head advising us".Sean_F said:
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
0 -
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d890 -
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Please be honest.0 -
We currently do govern ourselves. And we enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Sean_F said:The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
I don't understand Brexiteers who find that horrific.0 -
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against BrexitingIndigo said:
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.FF43 said:
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.David_Evershed said:
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.FF43 said:
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.0 -
Scott_P said:
He's an "expert" and thus can be safely ignored.TheScreamingEagles said:You should do a thread on that, PB Leaver denialists will get all abusive and say they know better than the head of the WTO.
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
My nextdoor neighbour took mine out when I was a child in the 1950s. He was Indian.0 -
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
0 -
I heard him interviewed this morning, and it was not as bleak as Kuenssberg's tweet and you imply. It really depends on what sort of deal we want, and how straightforward we intend to be when negotiating. If we take what we are offered it will be relatively quick, if we ask for the moon on a stick we might never get a deal.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Things will carry on as is now in the meantime - no foreign govt is going to be daft enough to unilaterally change a deal.chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89-1 -
37% think we'd be worse off economically; 22% think we'd be better off; 26% think it would make no difference. Both the latter groups break heavily for Leave.Casino_Royale said:
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.Sean_F said:
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Much like at GE 2015.
My nose tells me this is going to be close.0 -
We were told London would lose its dominant position when we didn't enter the Euro, and when we left the ERM, why should we believe that this time is different and it will really happen ?FF43 said:
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against BrexitingIndigo said:
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.FF43 said:
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.David_Evershed said:
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.FF43 said:
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.0 -
What, this happened before we were in the EU? How could that be possible?David_Evershed said:Scott_P said:
He's an "expert" and thus can be safely ignored.TheScreamingEagles said:You should do a thread on that, PB Leaver denialists will get all abusive and say they know better than the head of the WTO.
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
My nextdoor neighbour took mine out when I was a child in the 1950s. He was Indian.
0 -
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.Sean_F said:
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Scott_P said:
That is a curious thing.TOPPING said:I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?0 -
Thanks for the kind words all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.Sean_F said:
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Scott_P said:
That is a curious thing.TOPPING said:I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Britain was at its best when it was at war with tyrants who would rob Europe of its democratic freedoms.0 -
On dodgy dossiers?Scott_P said:
He's an "expert" and thus can be safely ignored.TheScreamingEagles said:You should do a thread on that, PB Leaver denialists will get all abusive and say they know better than the head of the WTO.
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
Talk to the Chancellor of the Exchequer: he's an expert.0 -
The British have some of the most comprehensive deals imaginable with a range of European countries right now. No British government is going to be daft enough to unilaterally tear them up, are they?TGOHF said:
Things will carry on as is now in the meantime - no foreign govt is going to be daft enough to unilaterally change a deal.chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d890 -
If.IF. IFTCPoliticalBetting said:
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on an English language website.0 -
It's a bizarre premise, I doubt more than 5% of voters know what the EEA is, and probably even less know about EFTA, the idea that is would have any effect in the referendum at all is a little unlikely to put in mildly.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.Casino_Royale said:
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:-AlastairMeeks said:Also on the theme of how long Brexit would take:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
0 -
Is this the same loss of dominance that London was said to be going to suffer when we did not join the Euro 14+ years ago or is this a different type of dominance such as some S&M relationship with a dominatrix?FF43 said:
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against BrexitingIndigo said:
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.FF43 said:
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.David_Evershed said:
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.FF43 said:
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
0 -
many apologies. I expect most people on PB to understand things without my having to spell it out for them line by line. Or. line. by. line. as you might put it.Luckyguy1983 said:
Thank you.TOPPING said:
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.Luckyguy1983 said:
And still you limp on.TOPPING said:
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or
2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
Now that I know that for you I will have to put my workings in the margin, I will amend my future posts to you.0 -
..on *an* English language website.TheScreamingEagles said:
If.IF. IFTCPoliticalBetting said:
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on English language website.0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.Casino_Royale said:
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:-AlastairMeeks said:Also on the theme of how long Brexit would take:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002 0 -
Wiv a little smart phone and tiny keys and big mits it aint easy guv....TheScreamingEagles said:
If.IF. IFTCPoliticalBetting said:
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on English language website.
0 -
0
-
No one tells New Zealand or Australia or Japan what type of kettles to build either, I am not sure what your point is.TOPPING said:
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.Sean_F said:
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Scott_P said:
That is a curious thing.TOPPING said:I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.Casino_Royale said:
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:-AlastairMeeks said:Also on the theme of how long Brexit would take:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002 0 -
Mr. Roger, eurocrats are like the Romans only in their fevered dreams.0
-
No - they wont tear them up - they will continue as now. If anything needs to change it will involve a negotiation - but in the meantime we will carry on buying French cheese and wine with no tariffs.williamglenn said:
The British have some of the most comprehensive deals imaginable with a range of European countries right now. No British government is going to be daft enough to unilaterally tear them up, are they?TGOHF said:
Things will carry on as is now in the meantime - no foreign govt is going to be daft enough to unilaterally change a deal.chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89
0 -
Happier than Cameron Merker and Juncker in the driving seatwilliamglenn said:
You're forgetting that if we leave, it will not be the final word on the British constitution. There are many long-standing issues kicked into the long grass that will become more pressing post-Brexit. Would you be happy to see Corbyn in the driving seat while those issues are decided?Paul_Bedfordshire said:On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
0 -
We were at our best when we formed a pan-European alliance to give the French a damn good hiding at Waterloo.MarqueeMark said:
Thanks for the kind words all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.Sean_F said:
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Scott_P said:
That is a curious thing.TOPPING said:I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Britain was at its best when it was at war with tyrants who would rob Europe of its democratic freedoms.
That's the model Dave should have followed for his renegotiation, that and making the French honouring the Treaty of Troyes.0 -
Yes but the Elites understand it.Indigo said:
It's a bizarre premise, I doubt more than 5% of voters know what the EEA is, and probably even less know about EFTA, the idea that is would have any effect in the referendum at all is a little unlikely to put in mildly.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?TheScreamingEagles said:
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
(smiley)
0 -
''Is this the same loss of dominance that London was said to be going to suffer when we did not join the Euro 14+ years ago or is this a different type of dominance such as some S&M relationship with a dominatrix?''
In the 1980s and 1990s in the City you couldn;t move for gloating French and German bankers predicting the City was losing to Frankfurt and Paris. And 'experts' and of course journalists.
I didn;t believe them then - I don;t believe them now.0 -
Sack the Chancellor.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying0 -
It's surprising how many countries are able to thrive without being part of the EU.Indigo said:
No one tells New Zealand or Australia or Japan what type of kettles to build either, I am not sure what your point is.TOPPING said:
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.TheScreamingEagles said:
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.Sean_F said:
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.Scott_P said:
That is a curious thing.TOPPING said:I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?0 -
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.Casino_Royale said:
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Please be honest.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules0 -
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!tlg86 said:
Sack the Chancellor.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying0 -
Agreed.tlg86 said:
Sack the Chancellor.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
Sports Direct getting a kicking from the select committee on BBC Parly.
Wait - doesn't the EU protect us from dreadful employment practices ?
0 -
@IsabelOakeshott: Vote Leave will be nervous re. Farage's ITV gig tonight. Critics will be poised to cry racism/bigotry.He mustn't give them ANY ammunition
Maybe Shadsy can put up a Bingo market or a spread? How many racist comments will Farage make tonight?0 -
We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
I dod it a year ago, it was probably the most heart breaking thing I have ever done, and I know that sounds mad.MarqueeMark said:Time to say goodbye to my wonderful old dog today.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.0 -
chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89
There is far less urgency to conclude a deal that would bring about benefits than to conclude one where the absence of a deal would result in serious risks to both sides. If the vote is Leave, then Britain will withdraw within a relatively short time and that alone upsets the status quo sufficiently to need resolving with some new arrangement ready for when it happens.chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d890 -
I've got the popcorn in for tomorrow night. It's going to be bare knuckle backstreet talking.Indigo said:
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!tlg86 said:
Sack the Chancellor.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying0 -
Even I laughed at that. Genuinely funny!TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
Paris is fine.TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
THose numbers hide a multitude of sins the UK is being lined up to pay for. We can only imagine what the number would be if Germany had a currency that in some way matched its economic performance.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
But it doesn't and so the gigantic imbalances grow ever more gigantic.
IF we stay in, the UK will pay.0 -
Seems a little precipitous, if HM Government, of which you are a well known cheerleader, decides in its wisdom to go for the EEA/EFTA approach, you can stay in Manchester... and since the government would fall a month or two later and Corbyn would sign us up for the Euro, you would have no further worries on that frontTheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.
0 -
I don't know what was said at the time of the ERM and the Euro project. Maybe it didn't make sense. I only know what is being said and acted on now. One huge and obvious difference is that we were still in the EU with its collective decision making and we won't be this time.Indigo said:
We were told London would lose its dominant position when we didn't enter the Euro, and when we left the ERM, why should we believe that this time is different and it will really happen ?FF43 said:
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against BrexitingIndigo said:
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.FF43 said:
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.David_Evershed said:
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.FF43 said:
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.0 -
It's full of French people!Sean_F said:
Paris is fine.TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
Do I infer from this:
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/740110289719468032
and this:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/740119706544295936
That Leave are about to gatecrash the Prime Minister's press conference?0 -
Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? Surely they are supposed to be firmly onside, given the financial tsunami that will follow Brexit; not to mention the loss of their own business to Paris or Frankfurt.Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Is this a betting hint, or is it just that Remain's advertising is booked by a complete lemon?0 -
http://www.cityam.com/242727/banks-face-a-storm-of-new-regulation-in-the-aftermath-of-the-eu-referendum-and-theyre-worryingly-unprepared
How the EU is set to bury the City in a mountain of regulation after the Brexit vote.
As I have posted here on many occasions - if we leave, we might save something.
If we stay we will watch powerless as the EU entombs our one world class industry, turning us into a supplicant state.0 -
It doesn't sound mad. It is a heartbreaking thing to have to do.currystar said:
I dod it a year ago, it was probably the most heart breaking thing I have ever done, and I know that sounds mad.MarqueeMark said:Time to say goodbye to my wonderful old dog today.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.0 -
You had better hope that the HS2 to HS1 interconnector gets built...TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
If the last ten years have not taught you the difference between a genuine expert such as a qualified doctor, and an economist, well, that's a bit lame.Scott_P said:
He's an "expert" and thus can be safely ignored.TheScreamingEagles said:You should do a thread on that, PB Leaver denialists will get all abusive and say they know better than the head of the WTO.
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
It's just another "Don;t leave because, er, well we can;t quite be sure exactly what will happen" argument.
Meh. Life will go on and everyone will make the best of the new circumstances. business, for example, will trade.0 -
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.Casino_Royale said:
NowTheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.0 -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.Casino_Royale said:
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:-AlastairMeeks said:Also on the theme of how long Brexit would take:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
We've ITV tonight - Farage then Camerontlg86 said:
I've got the popcorn in for tomorrow night. It's going to be bare knuckle backstreet talking.Indigo said:
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!tlg86 said:
Sack the Chancellor.Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli:
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying0 -
What if that was only a transitory stage to reach a fully independent UK?FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.Casino_Royale said:
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Please be honest.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules0 -
And that's the best news for Leave. They only have to convince people there will be no detriment, while Remain have to show things will get worse. Which possibly explains the ever more demented Cassandras in that group.Sean_F said:
37% think we'd be worse off economically; 22% think we'd be better off; 26% think it would make no difference. Both the latter groups break heavily for Leave.Casino_Royale said:
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.Sean_F said:
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.TOPPING said:
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!rcs1000 said:
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!Casino_Royale said:Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Much like at GE 2015.
My nose tells me this is going to be close.
(Although I do think people are underestimating the upheaval of Brexit. It's going to be chaotic - initially mostly political, but that will interact with the economics in a rather nasty way)0 -
Yes.david_herdson said:chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89
There is far less urgency to conclude a deal that would bring about benefits than to conclude one where the absence of a deal would result in serious risks to both sides. If the vote is Leave, then Britain will withdraw within a relatively short time and that alone upsets the status quo sufficiently to need resolving with some new arrangement ready for when it happens.chestnut said:
The Americans struck deals with South Korea and Australia in little over a year.david_herdson said:
And complete bollocks. Negotiations can be completed far faster when the will or necessity is there.Casino_Royale said:
No surprise. Another carefully choreographed intervention and predicted several times on here, not least of all by me.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89
On a bi-lateral level most of the bigger nations in Europe do very well out of the existing arrangement allowing them access to our market.
One or two of the smaller nations are heavily intertwined with our economy or making a trade surplus that their very hard pressed nations can ill afford to jeopardise.
I have always expected that a Leave vote would be followed by a period of reflection, consideration and preparation that would probably take us to the start of 2017.
0 -
Very interesting
The EU referendum: what to expect on the night
tl;dr the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain.
No nation which thought well of politicians would invent the overnight count.
The bottom line is that we'll learn an awful lot from the results — one way or another. I will be doing something on the night, though precisely what is still to be decided. If you just want to close out your bets profitably, you should probably go to sleep and wake up around 4am. I'll see you then…
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.zfe4ge4ix0 -
At 19 I had to hold the head of the dog with which I’d grown up while the vet put her to sleep. Amost 60 years later, still brings tears.Wanderer said:
It doesn't sound mad. It is a heartbreaking thing to have to do.currystar said:
I dod it a year ago, it was probably the most heart breaking thing I have ever done, and I know that sounds mad.MarqueeMark said:Time to say goodbye to my wonderful old dog today.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.0 -
Apart from that, though.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's full of French people!Sean_F said:
Paris is fine.TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.Casino_Royale said:
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.0 -
Isn't that what we tried to do with EFTA, which failed when the EEC was new and only had six members?Casino_Royale said:
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.Casino_Royale said:
NowTheScreamingEagles said:
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
It may be that some new European institutional will be needed but it can't exist while the EU does. To try to create one now will produce virtually no new members and in the event that some do defect to it from the EU, it would be blamed for breaking up the EU. Far better to wait to see how the effect of a Brexit impacts on the European Union and then work with whatever's there afterwards.
While predictions of imminent collapse have been frequent - and frequently wrong - people like Juncker have no idea of the scale of the risks their attitudes are running (though Tusk does seem to have his head on). The populist and Eurosceptic right are on the march across Europe and unless the EU reacts effectively to that, the house will be pulled down from the inside. A Brexit would still no doubt be blamed but less so than if we were actively canvassing for countries to leave in order to join our new club.0 -
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.0 -
In unrelated news, there are many rumours a remastered Skyrim may be released for Xbox One/PS4, to be announced in the next week or so. Be interesting to see whether mods are enabled (which has happened for Fallout 4 [XBox One already, PS4 to happen this month]).0
-
Most important referendum news of the day
Channel 4's one-off Eurotrash special will be on Friday 17th June at 9pm, just after Gogglesprogs (the kids version of Gogglebox)0 -
On balance, I think we are better off in the EU. If the EEA is a transitory phase it will be because people will realise that the issues they had with the EU apply even more so to the EEA. It will be an acrimonious collapse. It would be better if I am wrong and it turns out the EEA is just the thing for us!TonyE said:
What if that was only a transitory stage to reach a fully independent UK?FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules0 -
Apologies accepted.TOPPING said:
many apologies. I expect most people on PB to understand things without my having to spell it out for them line by line. Or. line. by. line. as you might put it.Luckyguy1983 said:
Thank you.TOPPING said:
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.Luckyguy1983 said:
And still you limp on.TOPPING said:
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or
2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
Now that I know that for you I will have to put my workings in the margin, I will amend my future posts to you.0 -
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).taffys said:''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.0 -
@David - I'd see it as a choice: join the eurozone, and the EU, or be a non-eurozone country in a looser outside association.
I think that'd force democratic reforms on the former, and lead to a few other countries (like Sweden and Denmark) volunteering to join the latter.
I think times have changed greatly since the 1960s when we last led EFTA.0 -
Wasn't that effectively what EFTA used to be - back when it was the Inner 6 and outer 7? That would definitely be the most ideal Leave scenario, but where would free movement come into it?FF43 said:
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.Casino_Royale said:
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.0 -
We'll always have Paris.Sean_F said:
Paris is fine.TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.
0 -
Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.0 -
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.0 -
Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.0 -
Will Straw and Ryan Coetzee what could possibly go wrong. If Remain win it will be despite their campaign team.DecrepitJohnL said:Is this a betting hint, or is it just that Remain's advertising is booked by a complete lemon?
0 -
Of course the rest of the EU will suffer; they will have to find £8bn to plug a hole in their budget.Scott_P said:
The Brexit argument appears to be we can make those things MORE likely if we leave.Indigo said:You appear perfectly happy to bet the farm on Greece not imploding, Italy not imploding, FN not being elected in France, Merkel not losing her majority, Grillo not winning in Italy, and any number of other EU imponderables, or is that different ?
Why would you want to vote for that?
@hugorifkind: Non-fighty q for Brexiters. Does it bother you that rest of EU may suffer if we leave? Or is that their problem? Or don't you think it will?
I'll think they'll survive, though.0 -
"The Germans wore grey you wore blue...."GIN1138 said:
We'll always have Paris.Sean_F said:
Paris is fine.TheScreamingEagles said:We'll we've officially decided.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.0 -
If there’s a sharp drop in the markets it won’t be good for my pension. OK this year perhaps but what of the future?chestnut said:Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.0 -
Huh? Massive barriers to entry to whom? Plucky little investment banks?taffys said:Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.
Of course the amount of regulation that we are seeing from Europe is staggering, and expensive, and the larger the institution the easier it would be to comply. But that is nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.
Their views on regulations are the same as everyone else's but they believe that the ease of doing business throughout Europe with one set of rules simplifies things greatly.
0 -
Reaction to Yougov and ORB, no?TheScreamingEagles said:Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.0 -
The cost of compliance for smaller funds is much higher a proportion of their income than it is for the BBs. Smaller and medium sized funds as well as hedge funds tend towards leave, the bigger banks and US banks tend towards remain, loads don't seem to care though as they don't think it will make any difference.TOPPING said:
Huh? Massive barriers to entry to whom? Plucky little investment banks?taffys said:Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.
Of course the amount of regulation that we are seeing from Europe is staggering, and expensive, and the larger the institution the easier it would be to comply. But that is nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.
Their views on regulations are the same as everyone else's but they believe that the ease of doing business throughout Europe with one set of rules simplifies things greatly.0 -
Flexible movement of workers on a temporary basis (with practical limits) but not an unadulterated right, which is just dogma.Paristonda said:
Wasn't that effectively what EFTA used to be - back when it was the Inner 6 and outer 7? That would definitely be the most ideal Leave scenario, but where would free movement come into it?FF43 said:
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.Casino_Royale said:
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.FF43 said:
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
As it was always supposed to be and as it should be.0 -
Was still at 69% an hour ago. So has gone up 5% since then.Casino_Royale said:
Reaction to Yougov and ORB, no?TheScreamingEagles said:Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.0 -
Doesn't that also put the membership fee of £8 billion into context?Mortimer said:
Very good point.another_richard said:To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.0 -
Possibly it's not so much expectation of a good poll for Remain as the absence of a further Leave surge in yesterday's polls. Punters seem to be sceptical about Leave, perhaps unduly.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.0 -
How fascinating - I do wish you'd pen a thread. Your clarity on numbers is a favourite of mine.chestnut said:Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.0 -
True datWanderer said:
Possibly it's not so much expectation of a good poll for Remain as the absence of a further Leave surge in yesterday's polls. Punters seem to be sceptical about Leave, perhaps unduly.TheScreamingEagles said:Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.0 -
"and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own." - ah sweet, they believe pension forecasts.0
-
Huh? Massive barriers to entry to whom? Plucky little investment banks?
Huge Investment banks face far fewer competitors now than they did, say, 20 years ago - partly due to rampant merging and partly due to 2008.
Citigroup alone is comprised of two or three that used to be independent (Salomon / Smith Barney / and Citi itself).
Its the same for many others.
This situation gives the current players absurdly large market shares in some products, as well as huge political leverage they never used to enjoy.
The much healthier situation that used to prevail can never come back because new players can never compete, partly due to regulatory costs.0 -
It would do, but its Remain that keeps on trying to make this an economic argument without understanding that for a substantial group of voters economics is not the be all and end all.Roger said:
Doesn't that rather put the membership fee of £8 billion into context?Mortimer said:
Very good point.another_richard said:To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.0
This discussion has been closed.