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There appears to be a determination from our friends supporting Remain to avoid engaging with the issue that the UK will not join the Euro or a federalised Europe, and so we are going to be out within the next decade anyway, only at greater cost, with it being harder to disengage, and in who knows what economic circumstances.0
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A price worth paying, eh?Sean_F said:
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
If Leave win, which will be the requirement for that to happen, they are enacting the democratic will of the people, that appears to cause you some discomfort.AlastairMeeks said:
No, it's an argument that Leavers are choosing to waste money on this project rather than put it into schools, hospitals, defence or local government - or reducing the deficit.Sean_F said:
That's an argument against any kind of change from the status quo.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
That is the choice Leavers are making. Don't be surprised when Labour argue that the money should have been spent on more practical priorities.0 -
Weirdest finding from that YouGov (and in general pollsters findings) is the big lead that Remaining in the EU has on Britain's influence in the world.
Eh?
I think the precise opposite. The idea that having 1/28th of the votes in a bloc dominated by the eurozone, a creeping EU diplomatic service, our UN Security Council seat constantly being coveted, no seat on the WTO and the prospect of an EU army "increases" British influence is laughable. If we got all that back I'd expect to see the UK have a meaningful global voice on the world stage the likes of which we haven't seen for decades.
Even if none of that were true I'm struggling to see any step change in British global influence between 1965 when we were in EFTA and 1975 when we were in the EEC.
So, a nonsense finding. I can only surmise that Vote Leave have concluded it's not particularly voter lucrative.0 -
Big fish in small (actually quite large) pool vs small fish in enormous pool.Casino_Royale said:Weirdest finding from that YouGov (and in general pollsters findings) is the big lead that Remaining in the EU has on Britain's influence in the world.
Eh?
I think the precise opposite. The idea that having 1/28th of the votes in a bloc dominated by the eurozone, a creeping EU diplomatic service, our UN Security Council seat constantly being coveted, no seat on the WTO and the prospect of an EU army "increases" British influence is laughable. If we got all that back I'd expect to see the UK have a meaningful global voice on the world stage the likes of which we haven't seen for decades.
Even if none of that were true I'm struggling to see any step change in British global influence between 1965 when we were in EFTA and 1975 when we were in the EEC.
So, a nonsense finding. I can only surmise that Vote Leave have concluded it's not particularly voter lucrative.
In it, the UK can help to lead the EU and be at the forefront of the trading bloc in its relations with the rest of the world. Outside it's us vs the rest of the world. A position we of course will manage but less optimal.0 -
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
And Leavers want to wreck that by burning one of the bridges that the country stands upon and close the door to the very people who make this country so well-placed, with only a hazy idea of what they positively want to do rather than what they definitely don't want to do (because it involves behaving like adults).
Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.0 -
Those effects are asymmetricSouthamObserver said:We conclude that the net UK contribution to the EU over the next few years is indeed likely to be about £8 billion a year, £8 billion which would become available for other things were we to leave.
If we vote Leave, the negative effects (if any) on our economy start on the 24th. Sterling falls, investment dries up, etc..
But we keep paying the EU for at least another 2 years...0 -
For the chance of being 45% ahead in 15 years time rather than 30% ?TOPPING said:
A price worth paying, eh?Sean_F said:
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
I'm very far from convinced that Labour's problems can be fixed simply by switching their leader.PlatoSaid said:
Ed Balls & Co claimed ad nauseum that "taking £6bn out of the economy" would kill any chance of our recovery/it'll be a calamity.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with Sean's comments downthread. We are in unprecedented times, and I certainly don't think slower economic growth following a Leave vote will be blamed on the Conservatives to Labour's benefit, particularly under JEREMY CORBYN.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
You could just as easily make a case that the Great British Public - in their infinite wisdom - knew precisely what they were doing in voting Leave (this economic scaremongering hasn't exactly been off the news, has it?) and trust the Conservatives to steer a path through it all to even greater prosperity far more so than Labour.
Alastair is underestimating the public and his prejudices are showing through here with phrases like "hobby horse". As per usual.
The difference with the ERM was that the Conservatives publicly shot themselves in the foot with a europhile hobby horse, which no-one voted for, then told everyone it was good for them.
The Great British Public thought that seemed a risk worth taking to fix a bigger problem. And after a bit of a wobbly start, trade and jobs picked up. I expect much of the same re Brexit, it's a calculated risk. And I'd expect the Tories to win against a Corbynite Opposition.0 -
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.0 -
Yep. As I've argued many times, the price worth paying as a weakness line underestimates the desire of a large percentage of particularly older and wealthier Britons to reestablish British people's control of the laws that affect them.TOPPING said:
A price worth paying, eh?Sean_F said:
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
Although they don't realize it yet, what Remain has promised is perpetual economic growth forever more.AlastairMeeks said:No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.
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In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?
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Your 'expert';SouthamObserver said:
We conclude that the net UK contribution to the EU over the next few years is indeed likely to be about £8 billion a year, £8 billion which would become available for other things were we to leave. However we also point out that even a small negative effect of just 0.6% on national income from leaving the EU would damage the public finances by more than that £8 billion. There is virtual unanimity among economic forecasters that the negative economic effect of leaving the EU would be greater than that. That is why we conclude that leaving the EU would not, as Michael Gove claims we said, leave more money to spend on the NHS. Rather it would leave us spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more.chestnut said:
£25bn a year in EU fees and Aid.AlastairMeeks said:
No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.chestnut said:
And if Remain wins there will be no place left to hide for Remain in a recession.SouthamObserver said:If things go tits up post-Brexit, voters will not blame themselves, they will blame those who they will believe conned them into voting Leave with promises of a golden future where more would be spent on public services and wages would rise. In short, they will blame those who head up the government, which will be dominated by Leave Tories. Whether it is a recession that would have happened anyway is neither here nor there.
In pledging the status quo Remain claim never ending 0.5% interest rates, record employment etc. It's obviously stupid to believe that will persist in perpetuity.
The US are again raising interest rates this summer.
It's staggering just how much money Leavers are prepared to allocate to their pet project at a time when public budgets are under such strain.
It's staggering that Remain continues to justify spending money that way whilst we are fed tales of crisis in housing, education, healthcare, social care etc.
http://www.ifs.org.uk/about/blog/346
http://www.ifs.org.uk/budgets/gb2008/gb2008.pdf
Our central forecast is that there will be a moderate slowdown in the UK economy over the coming fiscal year (2008) followed by a rather weak recovery in 2009. This implies two years of growth below the economy’s long-run trend rate.0 -
It'll be interesting to see what Leave has in the bag to tackle Remain's strongest points. Their campaign re the NHS has worked very well. IIRC they've a 21pt lead here.Casino_Royale said:Weirdest finding from that YouGov (and in general pollsters findings) is the big lead that Remaining in the EU has on Britain's influence in the world.
Eh?
I think the precise opposite. The idea that having 1/28th of the votes in a bloc dominated by the eurozone, a creeping EU diplomatic service, our UN Security Council seat constantly being coveted, no seat on the WTO and the prospect of an EU army "increases" British influence is laughable. If we got all that back I'd expect to see the UK have a meaningful global voice on the world stage the likes of which we haven't seen for decades.
Even if none of that were true I'm struggling to see any step change in British global influence between 1965 when we were in EFTA and 1975 when we were in the EEC.
So, a nonsense finding. I can only surmise that Vote Leave have concluded it's not particularly voter lucrative.
I'm with you on the Influence thing - and personally I don't think it matters that much as a factor either way. It tickles Leavers who think we're playing in the wrong league, and makes Remainers feel a bit warm and fuzzy about being in the current club/patted on the head by Obama.0 -
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Corrected that for you, CR.Casino_Royale said:
I'm very far from convinced that Labour's problems can be fixed.PlatoSaid said:
Ed Balls & Co claimed ad nauseum that "taking £6bn out of the economy" would kill any chance of our recovery/it'll be a calamity.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with Sean's comments downthread. We are in unprecedented times, and I certainly don't think slower economic growth following a Leave vote will be blamed on the Conservatives to Labour's benefit, particularly under JEREMY CORBYN.Wanderer said:
I know you think there won't be an economic shock but are you seriously saying that, if there is, it is "rubbish" to suggest the by-then Leaver-run Government would be blamed for it?Casino_Royale said:Rubbish.
You could just as easily make a case that the Great British Public - in their infinite wisdom - knew precisely what they were doing in voting Leave (this economic scaremongering hasn't exactly been off the news, has it?) and trust the Conservatives to steer a path through it all to even greater prosperity far more so than Labour.
Alastair is underestimating the public and his prejudices are showing through here with phrases like "hobby horse". As per usual.
The difference with the ERM was that the Conservatives publicly shot themselves in the foot with a europhile hobby horse, which no-one voted for, then told everyone it was good for them.
The Great British Public thought that seemed a risk worth taking to fix a bigger problem. And after a bit of a wobbly start, trade and jobs picked up. I expect much of the same re Brexit, it's a calculated risk. And I'd expect the Tories to win against a Corbynite Opposition.
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As I have repeatedly said, whatever the public votes for must be implemented and not revisited. I'm still entitled to my opinion on whether it's a good idea.Indigo said:
In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?
And its knock-on effects will certainly be the subject of party political debate. Buyer's remorse could well be lethal for the Conservatives for the reasons I outline on the thread.0 -
How many colleagues, employees and clients do you have that rely on economic stability and contracts with EU partners? I'd hazard a wild guess that the answer is zero. But as long as you aren't worried, that's the main thing.PlatoSaid said:
I thought @Sean_F made the point well when he said some people see Sterling as a virility symbol, and don't understand the flipside re exports.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Meeks, I'm reminded of a comment I made a few days ago, recalling Portillo (on This Week) wondering [about a decade ago] why the crashing pound hadn't destroyed the government.
It'd get more coverage this time due to the campaigns, but I'm not sure it matters as much as it might have in the past (in an electoral sense).
Post-Brexit, I'd expect acres and acres of hyperbole in the media about every teeny-weeny change - with everything blamed on the Leave vote. A bit like global warming back in the late 00s. And then it'll calm down, and we'll get on with things.
In my lifetime, I can only recall perhaps two or three things that really tipped the scales - such as 9/11 or global crash. Brexit is 90% boring paperwork changes and 10% hard-nosed negotiation. I'm a bit of worrier by nature - and it doesn't concern me at all.0 -
Well they can't. As they have a single currency they need much greater fiscal integration. Greece demonstrated that in a currency union democracy loses to economic management. Put very shortly the money the Greek electorate voted that their government should spend was not theirs and they had no right to it.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
This needs to apply to all governments in the EZ if long term stability of the Euro is to be achieved. So democracy either ceases to apply to most important government decisions or a new supra-national polis needs to be created to give the people some sort of say, however remote.
The only sensible option available for such a supra-national polis is EU institutions such as the European Parliament. At the moment we are blocking that and if we remain this will be an increasing source of tension as those in the EZ feel their democratic rights being stripped away by budgetary control from the ECB. I agree with Indigo and others that this will eventually result in a choice: join the Euro or leave.0 -
Exactly - we don't want political union. It boils down to that.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
What price for our democracy and sovereignty? Seems many people don't care for it - they just want cheap stuff & labour and ever higher house prices.
The UK won't be anything if we carry on down the road of the EU - for all of Cameron's "no more ever closer union" air (and it is just that - air) we will be heading for further political union if we remain in the EU.
Happy for British democracy and sovereignty to become extinct? Fine - vote Remain. And I hope you feel shame at some point down the road of life, probably at a time when you know that we (the British people) would have done something but now cannot because we have no power to exercise.0 -
Mr Meeks,
Like me, you are an amateur at economics, so can I ask you about your touching faith in forecasts when experience should sway you the other way?
Surely, most of our experts saw the 2008 depression coming? No?
I would expect uncertainty to cause a slight fall in sterling - that's human nature not economics - but who would dare predict the extent of that? Oh, wait a minute, failure doesn't seem to shame them at all.
You believe because you want to believe, which is a reasonable view. But it's not very persuasive.
Edit ... I gotta horse. Now who was that?
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The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Might economic predictions be wrong? Sure they might. But there is no particular reason to assume that they are wrong in your desired direction.CD13 said:Mr Meeks,
Like me, you are an amateur at economics, so can I ask you about your touching faith in forecasts when experience should sway you the other way?
Surely, most of our experts saw the 2008 depression coming? No?
I would expect uncertainty to cause a fall in slight fall in sterling - that's human nature not economics - but who would dare predict the extent of that? Oh, wait a minute, failure doesn't seem to shame them at all.
You believe because you want to believe, which is a reasonable view. But it's not very persuasive.0 -
I thought it was the older poor, if they turnout, which will win it for leave?AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
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Sky reporting with 1 day left, 7m eligible haven't registered yet.0
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We're not blocking it. We just negotiated a deal whereby they can crack on with it and we can say no thank you.DavidL said:
Well they can't. As they have a single currency they need much greater fiscal integration. Greece demonstrated that in a currency union democracy loses to economic management. Put very shortly the money the Greek electorate voted that their government should spend was not theirs and they had no right to it.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
This needs to apply to all governments in the EZ if long term stability of the Euro is to be achieved. So democracy either ceases to apply to most important government decisions or a new supra-national polis needs to be created to give the people some sort of say, however remote.
The only sensible option available for such a supra-national polis is EU institutions such as the European Parliament. At the moment we are blocking that and if we remain this will be an increasing source of tension as those in the EZ feel their democratic rights being stripped away by budgetary control from the ECB. I agree with Indigo and others that this will eventually result in a choice: join the Euro or leave.
The power of that simple "no ever closer union" clause has I think been underestimated. Anything we don't like? "Ever Closer Union." And a No from us.
That is pretty powerful. You might almost call it Associate Member status..0 -
Agreed. The coming recession could follow a Remain vote, and that does for the economic credibility of the treasury yet more.tlg86 said:
Although they don't realize it yet, what Remain has promised is perpetual economic growth forever more.AlastairMeeks said:No one is predicting a £20 to 40 billion economic shock in the event of Remain.
DC and GO have picked the worst position to be in at this point in the business cycle - by going too hard at this vote they've also forced their own friends and colleagues to rebut personal attacks with personal attacks.
Remain and ANY recession destroys the Tory party's hopes at the next election as well as not putting the matter to bed.
Leave and a DEEP recession probably does too.
Way to go guys.0 -
A decision can be arrived at by an unimpeachably democratic process and yet be objectively terrible.Indigo said:
In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?0 -
I'd rather a Labour govt out of the EU than a Conservative govt in it.
There's little doubt that if Leave wins, Meeks will have contributed an awful lot to it, he has hardened the view of plenty on here.
And to think, until recently he was undecided.0 -
Except it won't because the largest groups supporting Leave (the kippers) are older and poorer on the whole, and the other big group is the WWC who are also poorer on the whole. We also know that AB voters ("the rich") are heavily for Remain. Apart from that spot onAlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
0 -
Not so. According to the Treaties the EZ still cannot use the EU institutions. There are complicated work arounds for some things but that is the inevitable consequence of having non Euro members in the EU.TOPPING said:
We're not blocking it. We just negotiated a deal whereby they can crack on with it and we can say no thank you.DavidL said:
Well they can't. As they have a single currency they need much greater fiscal integration. Greece demonstrated that in a currency union democracy loses to economic management. Put very shortly the money the Greek electorate voted that their government should spend was not theirs and they had no right to it.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
.CornishBlue said:
.AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
This needs to apply to all governments in the EZ if long term stability of the Euro is to be achieved. So democracy either ceases to apply to most important government decisions or a new supra-national polis needs to be created to give the people some sort of say, however remote.
The only sensible option available for such a supra-national polis is EU institutions such as the European Parliament. At the moment we are blocking that and if we remain this will be an increasing source of tension as those in the EZ feel their democratic rights being stripped away by budgetary control from the ECB. I agree with Indigo and others that this will eventually result in a choice: join the Euro or leave.
The power of that simple "no ever closer union" clause has I think been underestimated. Anything we don't like? "Ever Closer Union." And a No from us.
That is pretty powerful. You might almost call it Associate Member status..0 -
I haven't seen any coverage of Cameron's Bomb Warning myself. What was it?Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
No-one in Leave is talking about doing that. Least of all me.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Stop spreading and projecting your prejudices onto Leavers.
No-one is talking about isolation. We are talking about friendly cooperation and collaboration with our neighbours but without sharing a common government.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
0 -
The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
Traders will cope with, and adjust to, whatever is thrown at them.
An immediate benefit of Brexit will be the change in atmosphere.0 -
Firstly I doubt any economic shock would be anything like much of the Remain scaremongering, after all Norway and Switzerland seem to do OK outside the EU. Second the voters will have voted for Brexit anyway and even if there were an economic collapse that would more likely Herald a return for George Osborne, the lead Remain scaremongerer, at the expense of Boris than any boost for Corbyn who will still not be trusted with the pursestrings and has been lukewarm about Remain at best
A better bet for Labour and more likely is a narrow Remain win leading Tory leavers to shift to UKIP but even then those voters would not be going to Labour, it would be more a protest like in 2005 when Labour voters voted LD over Iraq0 -
"Buyer's remorse"AlastairMeeks said:
As I have repeatedly said, whatever the public votes for must be implemented and not revisited. I'm still entitled to my opinion on whether it's a good idea.Indigo said:
In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?
And its knock-on effects will certainly be the subject of party political debate. Buyer's remorse could well be lethal for the Conservatives for the reasons I outline on the thread.
Those who vote Leave may not like the consequences - Economic woes, Scotland seceding, Gibraltar distancing itself, Migration levels not changing, European holidays getting more expensive. But we will have our sovereignty, just over a smaller landmass, and will be able to boot out Boris in favour of Corbyn.0 -
Prince MonoluluCD13 said:Mr Meeks,
Like me, you are an amateur at economics, so can I ask you about your touching faith in forecasts when experience should sway you the other way?
Surely, most of our experts saw the 2008 depression coming? No?
I would expect uncertainty to cause a slight fall in sterling - that's human nature not economics - but who would dare predict the extent of that? Oh, wait a minute, failure doesn't seem to shame them at all.
You believe because you want to believe, which is a reasonable view. But it's not very persuasive.
Edit ... I gotta horse. Now who was that?0 -
If Leave win, there could be an economic shock to those holidaying abroad this year. Meanwhile, back in the UK, there will be a surprising bounce in producer optimism and economic activity and certain prices will start to fall for consumers in the UK as it frees itself from the slow growth EU customs union and trades more freely with the rest of the world. The pre-Brexit economic doomsters are flummoxed. The replacement of an economic illiterate by an inspiring, astute Chancellor, gives confidence. An unexpected bonus is the Glorious Summer with its succession of long barbecue evenings and days spent on Britain's beaches. Starting with Glastonbury it is a summer of fantastic music festivals with no sign that creativity has been stifled by the Brexit vote - even the West End theatres have a bonanza summer (aided by the lower £), and The Last Night of The Proms caps a period of patriotic rejuvenation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/05/economic-arguments-about-brexit-have-succumbed-to-group-think/0 -
If you want to trade growth for equality just have a more progressive tax system. Or, more simply, vote Labour.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
As a manufacturer you've had three recessions since Osborne proclaimed the 'March of the Makers'.Alanbrooke said:
I;m in my third recession in 8 years. People like you tell me I should just suck it up and die quietly. This government is already getting blame in certain sectors they cant avoid it whatever the vote outcome.AlastairMeeks said:
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?Sean_F said:A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
If 2016q2 has another fall in manufacturing output (likely) then that will be a fourth Osborne manufacturing recession.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a
You should have been an estate agent - Osborne would have given you subsidies then.
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Nah, if Leave wins it will be voted through by more voters than voted against it. It will be by definition more one nation's decision than perhaps any political result ever. It would be a rejection of Brownian Osbornism and the embracing of our national spirit. You underestimate both our ability to prosper and our need to identify more with our constitutional system.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Nothing about this is objective, its all a judgement call, if the bulk of the population decides that say sovereignty is more important to them than a bit more wealth, then that is right for them, and they are completely within their rights to vote for it.Wanderer said:
A decision can be arrived at by an unimpeachably democratic process and yet be objectively terrible.Indigo said:
In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?0 -
-
Big fish in stagnant pool being ganged up on by the majority of the other fish who want to control their algae patch versus big fish in bigger, cleaner, vibrant pool with lots of other friendly fish.TOPPING said:
Big fish in small (actually quite large) pool vs small fish in enormous pool.Casino_Royale said:Weirdest finding from that YouGov (and in general pollsters findings) is the big lead that Remaining in the EU has on Britain's influence in the world.
Eh?
I think the precise opposite. The idea that having 1/28th of the votes in a bloc dominated by the eurozone, a creeping EU diplomatic service, our UN Security Council seat constantly being coveted, no seat on the WTO and the prospect of an EU army "increases" British influence is laughable. If we got all that back I'd expect to see the UK have a meaningful global voice on the world stage the likes of which we haven't seen for decades.
Even if none of that were true I'm struggling to see any step change in British global influence between 1965 when we were in EFTA and 1975 when we were in the EEC.
So, a nonsense finding. I can only surmise that Vote Leave have concluded it's not particularly voter lucrative.
In it, the UK can help to lead the EU and be at the forefront of the trading bloc in its relations with the rest of the world. Outside it's us vs the rest of the world. A position we of course will manage but less optimal.
I'm afraid I don't see the EU v. The World in the same sort of competitive zero sum terms that you seem to do.0 -
Labour do not incentivise enterprise. Brexit would.Wanderer said:
If you want to trade growth for equality just have a more progressive tax system. Or, more simply, vote Labour.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Why should I feel same? I am a citizen of the UK, an Englishman by birth and a Londoner by adoption. I would love London to secede to become a northern Singapore. You might well disagree with that, it might even make you angry, but I don't see the shame. Please explain.CornishBlue said:
Exactly - we don't want political union. It boils down to that.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
What price for our democracy and sovereignty? Seems many people don't care for it - they just want cheap stuff & labour and ever higher house prices.
The UK won't be anything if we carry on down the road of the EU - for all of Cameron's "no more ever closer union" air (and it is just that - air) we will be heading for further political union if we remain in the EU.
Happy for British democracy and sovereignty to become extinct? Fine - vote Remain. And I hope you feel shame at some point down the road of life, probably at a time when you know that we (the British people) would have done something but now cannot because we have no power to exercise.
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Mr Meeks,
"But there is no particular reason to assume that they are wrong in your desired direction."
I'm casting doubt on economic predictions, not their direction.
Where I am stating a direction is Cameron talking of World War Three. I suspect he is exaggerating on the pessimistic side. If we get World War Three, Four and Five, I'll be wrong.0 -
That's like saying that the laws of physics are a threat to democracy because people can't vote to change them. There are always constraints on what an electorate can vote for and always consequences for electing a government which defies reason.DavidL said:
Well they can't. As they have a single currency they need much greater fiscal integration. Greece demonstrated that in a currency union democracy loses to economic management. Put very shortly the money the Greek electorate voted that their government should spend was not theirs and they had no right to it.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.0 -
I don't know if this is a good site or not - http://www.shadowstats.com/ - if it is accurate it explains why people don't see any personal advantage in increases in GDP. The temptation for the government to manipulate GDP and the employmernt rate - the only two statistics with cut through to the public - must be enormous. If I was Gove or whoever the economic spokeman for Leave is, I would hit hard on this.0
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Well after all the banging on about the consequences for the past months, and the almost continuous doom and gloom for the PM and the BBC, you can't say there were not warned, and de facto must be accepting the risk if they vote leave.logical_song said:
"Buyer's remorse"AlastairMeeks said:
As I have repeatedly said, whatever the public votes for must be implemented and not revisited. I'm still entitled to my opinion on whether it's a good idea.Indigo said:
In your view.AlastairMeeks said:Far more than the actual decision whether to Remain or Leave, the dumb anti-expert nihilism that Leave now stands for represents a danger to this country's wellbeing.
For it to happen the majority of your countrymen need to disagree with you.
Democracy eh ?
And its knock-on effects will certainly be the subject of party political debate. Buyer's remorse could well be lethal for the Conservatives for the reasons I outline on the thread.
Those who vote Leave may not like the consequences - Economic woes, Scotland seceding, Gibraltar distancing itself, Migration levels not changing, European holidays getting more expensive. But we will have our sovereignty, just over a smaller landmass, and will be able to boot out Boris in favour of Corbyn.0 -
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
0 -
But the economics have nothing to do with why you're supporting Remain. It's because you think we're all a little bit racist and prejudiced and you don't want to encourage it.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
You just think the economics is a more profitable line of attack for you.0 -
If Remain win narrowly I think May or Hammond more likely than BorisRochdalePioneers said:The vote looks to be heading towards Leave and doing so at increasing pace. As the Remain campaign have already threatened war and ruin I can't wait to see what threats will be unveiled this weekend - perhaps the killing of the first born male child in every household, or an absolute ban on British from holidaying get anywhere other than Weston-super-Mare. Both sides have talked utter nonsense, but remain have made utter idiots of themselves.
As for the Tories there is no gluing them back together. Unless it's a big win for remain Cameron will be gone and quickly - his authority and credibility have gone. I tipped Boris to lead Leave, leave to win, Boris to become leader on New Year's Day (on Facebook...) and I'm confident that's going to transpire. How he is able to pull together the broken ruin of the parliamentary Tory party remains to be seen. An election within 12 months seems likely.0 -
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Great post, I don't want to be in a political union with 27 other countries, if in the short term it costs me a couple of quid more to go to Benidorm I'll live with it.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
It's neither good news, or bad news, its just news. People have been given every chance to register. If as expected this referendum has a 65% turnout, that means about 15 million people that could have voted, chose not to, if they dont intend to vote why would they bother registering.Jobabob said:
Presumably you see that as good news?PlatoSaid said:Sky reporting with 1 day left, 7m eligible haven't registered yet.
0 -
It has been abundantly obvious for a long time that the establishment are prepared to sell their fellow subjects down the constitutional Swanee, no matter how anti-democratic, to secure their world view.AlastairMeeks said:
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
And you're surprised when the subjects react?0 -
To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
0 -
It might surprise you but I try to write thread headers thinking about how politics might develop in future and not just about what I do or don't care about.Casino_Royale said:
But the economics have nothing to do with why you're supporting Remain. It's because you think we're all a little bit racist and prejudiced and you don't want to encourage it.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
You just think the economics is a more profitable line of attack for you.
The optics of an economic shock after a vote to Leave are potentially awful for the Conservative party in the short, medium and long term. That is important - there are other important things apart from the referendum.0 -
Ruinous. Roger spoke of penury.AlastairMeeks said:
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
You lot have lost the plot completely, people are laughing at you, get a grip ffs.0 -
Very good point.another_richard said:To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
0 -
The voters if they vote Leave will have done so despite ample Remain warnings about the economic risks, ultimately it will be the voters themselves who take responsibilityAlastairMeeks said:
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.0 -
Pot let me introduce you to the Kettle.AlastairMeeks said:
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
You told us with a completely straight face just now "If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich", when the rich AB voters are known to be heavily for Remain, and the poor WWC and kipper voters are known to be for Leave, its just that didn't suit your narrative.0 -
I see we've finally found an item of lavish public spending that you approve of.another_richard said:To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.0 -
They famously wanted us to join the fiscal compact, and we managed (to much domestic opprobrium) to decline.DavidL said:
Not so. According to the Treaties the EZ still cannot use the EU institutions. There are complicated work arounds for some things but that is the inevitable consequence of having non Euro members in the EU.TOPPING said:
We're not blocking it. We just negotiated a deal whereby they can crack on with it and we can say no thank you.DavidL said:
Well they can't. As they have a single cur.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
.CornishBlue said:
.AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
The only sensi leave.
The power of that simple "no ever closer union" clause has I think been underestimated. Anything we don't like? "Ever Closer Union." And a No from us.
That is pretty powerful. You might almost call it Associate Member status..
There is no doubt that as a member of the EZ there is a logical case for political union. Hell, as a member of the EZ you have already forfeited your monetary policy to the ECB. And that really is sovereignty for all that the word is misused in today's debate.
So contrary to other views on here, with the fiscal compact as a precedent, I really do think that the no ever closer union clause has teeth.
As I have long said on here, I think that some fear it not because it can't be used, but because they don't trust future (perhaps especially Labour) governments to use it.0 -
My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?0
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What this site needs is an Abuse-ometer. Then we can all nominate and vote upon the Most Abusive Post each day, and in the Dead Days between Xmas and New Year create an award for the Year's Most Abusive Poster.blackburn63 said:
Ruinous. Roger spoke of penury.AlastairMeeks said:
It has been abundantly apparent for a long time that the diehard Leavers are prepared to pay any price, no matter how ruinous, to secure their dream.Jobabob said:
thank you Alastair for a great thread. The comments below it expose the truth about the Leavers - they consider a reduction in national wealth a price worth paying. So now we know.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
You lot have lost the plot completely, people are laughing at you, get a grip ffs.
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JobaBob - but the national wealth reported is artificial isn't it. That's what old people see. There was a time adding water to meat was criminal - there is an old black and white British film with the story line about the murder of a meat inspector who detected watered meat - now you can't get away from it. Legal now of course. Who is better fed and better housed than 20 years ago?0
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For self-government, certainly. There's more to life than maximising income.TOPPING said:
A price worth paying, eh?Sean_F said:
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.
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The problem with Shadow Government Statistics - and I've jousted with John Williams on this a bunch of times - is that if his inflation numbers are accurate, then a dollar in 1980 bought about 16x as much as a dollar in 2016. In other words a small difference in assumed rates of inflation (2-5% per year) makes a massive difference over a long period.PAW said:I don't know if this is a good site or not - http://www.shadowstats.com/ - if it is accurate it explains why people don't see any personal advantage in increases in GDP. The temptation for the government to manipulate GDP and the employmernt rate - the only two statistics with cut through to the public - must be enormous. If I was Gove or whoever the economic spokeman for Leave is, I would hit hard on this.
And there is almost nothing that is 16x the price is 2016 as it was in 1980: cars, TVs, food, a can of coke, a pizza. All of them are priced much more closely to what the official statistics would suggest than what his numbers generate.
I'd also note that refusal to accept that there hedonic improvements that need to be accounted for is just plain absurd.
Edit to add: he *is* right in terms of unaccounted for government liabilities, mind.0 -
Some things transcend pecuniary value.TOPPING said:
A price worth paying, eh?Sean_F said:
Being (for the sake of argument) 15% better off in 10 years time, as opposed to 20%, is no tragedy.TOPPING said:A diminution of GDP over the next one to 10 years, which surely no sane Leaver or Remainer disputes will happen, will be almost imperceptible to the vast majority of the country. GDP would have been X, it turns out to be 0.yX.
So what?
Destruction of value, jobs lost, are always difficult to drop on your foot unless they are directly affecting you, and are certainly near impossible to connect to some larger exogenous event.
The tragedy for me for a Brexit, however, will be exactly that value destroyed, the wealth not created and, oh the irony, the almost certain increase in number and complexity of hoops which businesses will have to jump through to comply with whatever new regulatory environment we find ourselves in. All of which will come at a cost. We could have grown by X, it turns out we will grow by 0.yX.
Just as if we vote in Labour governments, we will survive, it is just a shame at the needless waste and opportunity cost the people who will to a smaller or greater extent, pay for it. As @SouthamObserver notes, usually the people who can least afford it.0 -
For any self respecting tory the clinching argument on the EU should be that it gives a Labour government the ability to irrevocable give away powers from this country. Cameron's government is unpopular, an Osborne remain government would be worse. Which powers do you want to let McDonnell sign away in his first year in office ?TOPPING said:As I have long said on here, I think that some fear it not because it can't be used, but because they don't trust future (perhaps especially Labour) governments to use it.
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Very funny. I can tell you that for traders in EC and E14 there will certainly be a change in atmosphere. And not a brilliant one.david_kendrick1 said:The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
Traders will cope with, and adjust to, whatever is thrown at them.
An immediate benefit of Brexit will be the change in atmosphere.0 -
They'll be even more important. As we will no longer be able to visit the continent, all our knowledge will have to come through academics who can tell us about what "France" is like.LewisDuckworth said:My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?
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Hmm. I think you'll find that Europe still exists to be studied even if we aren't in the EU. Whether they'll find any funding is another matter.LewisDuckworth said:My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?
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How do you study Europe?rottenborough said:
Hmm. I think you'll find that Europe still exists to be studied even if we aren't in the EU. Whether they'll find any funding is another matter.LewisDuckworth said:My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?
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All the traders I know are fanatical readers of research (whether about the likely pricing for electrical components, or about inflation outlooks), and constant quizzers of experts. In other words, they use the insights of experts to help them interpret data.david_kendrick1 said:The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
Traders will cope with, and adjust to, whatever is thrown at them.
An immediate benefit of Brexit will be the change in atmosphere.0 -
We might suddenly find out what all sorts of organisation on the hook for an EU handout if they behave like good little Europeans really think.rottenborough said:
Hmm. I think you'll find that Europe still exists to be studied even if we aren't in the EU. Whether they'll find any funding is another matter.LewisDuckworth said:My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?
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Let's all be middlemen! A curiously British attitude for sure.david_kendrick1 said:The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
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£80k waiting to back IN at 1.44-1.46 on Betfair. Some big trades being carried out since prices were laid at much shorter odds.0
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Old, perhaps. What is the source for claiming the rich vote for Leave ?AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
All the evidence I have seen suggests the reverse, e.g.,
"Sky Data analysis shows Waitrose shoppers are more likely to vote Remain, while those who shop at Aldi are more likely to vote Leave.
Luxury car owners are more likely to be Europhiles, while those who drive small utility cars tend to be more Eurosceptic."
Ah, the Wonderful World of Antifrank, where the leavers are driving clapped old cars and shopping at Aldi, but are "rich".
Meantime, the "poor" Remainers are having to slum it with Waitrose and luxury sports cars.
I think you have it wrong. The rich are voting Remain, the poor are voting Leave (or not voting).
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Can't argue with that, but don't you see that by going at it so hard, ANY post-Remain recession now impacts the Tory party far more than it would have done before. And, I'd suggest, actually impacts established party politics more widely too.AlastairMeeks said:
It might surprise you but I try to write thread headers thinking about how politics might develop in future and not just about what I do or don't care about.Casino_Royale said:
But the economics have nothing to do with why you're supporting Remain. It's because you think we're all a little bit racist and prejudiced and you don't want to encourage it.AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:AlastairMeeks said:Mortimer said:AlastairMeeks said:Wanderer said:Scrapheap_as_was said:Indigo said:Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
You just think the economics is a more profitable line of attack for you.
The optics of an economic shock after a vote to Leave are potentially awful for the Conservative party in the short, medium and long term. That is important - there are other important things apart from the referendum.
At least a proportion of those voting Leave have accepted that it might have some cost implications, and indeed many leading Leavers have not shyed away from suggesting that some short term impact is likely. GO and DC in their infinite wisdom have decided to promise sunny uplands for those voting Remain. How is that going to play out if we tip into recession in this parliament? Those who promised sunny uplands will be blamed, and those who only voted Remain for fear of something worse would be rightfully horrified and critical: anti politics would increase.
A leave vote units; remain will continue to divide.0 -
But the problem is the public see these as the same experts that thought it would be a disaster not to join the Euro, the same experts that thought we should stay in the ERM at all costs, and the same experts that saw economic plan sailing through 2008.rcs1000 said:
All the traders I know are fanatical readers of research (whether about the likely pricing for electrical components, or about inflation outlooks), and constant quizzers of experts. In other words, they use the insights of experts to help them interpret data.david_kendrick1 said:The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
Traders will cope with, and adjust to, whatever is thrown at them.
An immediate benefit of Brexit will be the change in atmosphere.0 -
I see we've finally found an item of lavish public spending that you disapprove of.AlastairMeeks said:
I see we've finally found an item of lavish public spending that you approve of.another_richard said:To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
You're whole argument has been demolished - £20bn is nothing more than a rounding error nowadays.
And the only public spending I want to see more of is if its on me.
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Sure; I was just addressing David's point that these traders exist in a vacuum, unsullied by experts and research.Indigo said:
But the problem is the public see these as the same experts that thought it would be a disaster not to join the Euro, the same experts that thought we should stay in the ERM at all costs, and the same experts that saw economic plan sailing through 2008.rcs1000 said:
All the traders I know are fanatical readers of research (whether about the likely pricing for electrical components, or about inflation outlooks), and constant quizzers of experts. In other words, they use the insights of experts to help them interpret data.david_kendrick1 said:The real economy doesn't need politicians, still less does it need 'experts'. It needs traders.
Traders will cope with, and adjust to, whatever is thrown at them.
An immediate benefit of Brexit will be the change in atmosphere.0 -
It's become pretty clear now that, come the 24th, whatever the result, the EU will continue to be a major issue for the public and future governments.
I can't see how Cameron comes out of this positively either way. His government since winning the election has been surprisingly crap and needs some sort of renewal (starting with Osborne moving on). Cameron's trust ratings through the floor and unlikely to recover. The conservatives are extremely lucky Corbyn plods on.0 -
Mr. Topping, must say I don't think the 'no ever closer union' claim is worth the paper it's written on. It's not in a treaty, it can be ignored and I suspect it will be, should we remain.0
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Wow, Sun headline setters, gird thy loins.blackburn63 said:
There's little doubt that if Leave wins, Meeks will have contributed an awful lot to it
It's Meeks wot won (lost) it.0 -
Brusselsology will become a thing. News bulletins will wheel out experts to explain the significance of the speaking order of Juncker and Merkel after an EU summit.rcs1000 said:
They'll be even more important. As we will no longer be able to visit the continent, all our knowledge will have to come through academics who can tell us about what "France" is like.LewisDuckworth said:My goodness, if Leave Wins, what's to become of all those fancy European Studies Institutes set up at UK universities in the last 20 years?
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The Skibbereen Eagle has nothing on me.Theuniondivvie said:
Wow, Sun headline setters, gird thy loins.blackburn63 said:
There's little doubt that if Leave wins, Meeks will have contributed an awful lot to it
It's Meeks wot won (lost) it.0 -
To follow from my earlier comment, this chart is what John Williams thinks real inflation is, as opposed to the headline number:PAW said:I don't know if this is a good site or not - http://www.shadowstats.com/ - if it is accurate it explains why people don't see any personal advantage in increases in GDP. The temptation for the government to manipulate GDP and the employmernt rate - the only two statistics with cut through to the public - must be enormous. If I was Gove or whoever the economic spokeman for Leave is, I would hit hard on this.
If he is correct, a can of coke should cost around $7 today, rather than less than a $1.0 -
Indeed. This is how I see things developingRazedabode said:It's become pretty clear now that, come the 24th, whatever the result, the EU will continue to be a major issue for the public and future governments.
1. There will be a narrow remain vote
2. Dave is loyal to his mates and attempts to prise Osborne into No.10.
3. Some of the wheels coming off the renegotiation, the chance of the immigration handbrake lasting through the first year is remote, most EU lawyers seem to see that as extremely vulnerable to the ECJ.
4. Dave/Osborne will attempt to handwave these away as details that don't matter because we have voted to Remain now.
5. The hat will be passed around for more money to support the migrant crisis, the government will tell everyone it won't pay, and then quietly will
6. UKIP landslide in 2019 EU elections
7. McDonnell takes over from Corbyn who steps back claiming health issues
8. Hung parliament in 2020 with kippers, snp and LDs all having 30-40 seats.
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I think no one knows exactly who is voting what way, resulting in the survey's being utterly useless.YBarddCwsc said:
Old, perhaps. What is the source for claiming the rich vote for Leave ?AlastairMeeks said:
The risks of Leave are borne by the young and the poor who will have to pay for the economic shock. If Leave wins, it will be voted through by the old and the rich. Not very one nation.Mortimer said:
And yet too many are left behind. Leave is the one nation argument - and even if it does cost a few % points of growth, we'll survive.AlastairMeeks said:
This country right now is better than it ever has been before. It has created more jobs for more people and is uniquely well placed to manage the challenges of the age.Mortimer said:
Ah, you're a managed decliner? Explains the fear of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
We might be passing the zenith right now. If we choose to retreat into reactionary isolation, it is hard to see how that is Britain getting greater.Wanderer said:
Well said. This country is greater than it has ever been.Scrapheap_as_was said:
exactly what date did we stop being great?Indigo said:
Meanwhile the chickens want to hold on to nurse because the nasty world might hurt them. The timidity of our once great country isn't so much a disgrace as an embarrassment.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
To be honest, Remain have to accept the culpability for undermining real expertise in DC's deciding to throw the weight of his government and the odd 'bomb' or world war suggestions into the mix. Public trust figures suggest he might have done more harm to the institution of the Prime Ministers office than almost any who have gone before him - perhaps excepting Blair.
All the evidence I have seen suggests the reverse, e.g.,
"Sky Data analysis shows Waitrose shoppers are more likely to vote Remain, while those who shop at Aldi are more likely to vote Leave.
Luxury car owners are more likely to be Europhiles, while those who drive small utility cars tend to be more Eurosceptic."
Ah, the Wonderful World of Antifrank, where the leavers are driving clapped old cars and shopping at Aldi, but are "rich".
Meantime, the "poor" Remainers are having to slum it with Waitrose and luxury sports cars.
I think you have it wrong. The rich are voting Remain, the poor are voting Leave (or not voting).
All will be revealed on the 24th. Until then its rumour and innuendo...0 -
Except it is a myth. The opt out has no legal standing in the EU at the moment and won't have unless and until.it is written into a treaty.TOPPING said:
We're not blocking it. We just negotiated a deal whereby they can crack on with it and we can say no thank you.DavidL said:
Well they can't. As they have a single currency they need much greater fiscal integration. Greece demonstrated that in a currency union democracy loses to economic management. Put very shortly the money the Greek electorate voted that their government should spend was not theirs and they had no right to it.Sean_F said:
Leave is simply recognising that most of our neighbours wish to travel in a different direction to the direction we wish to travel in.AlastairMeeks said:
Isolation is throwing up your hands and deciding not to engage meaningfully with your closest neighbours because it's all too difficult, barring the door and drawing the curtains. That is how Leave is campaigning.CornishBlue said:
And you think leaving the EU is retreating into reactionary isolation?!AlastairMeeks said:
.Wanderer said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:
?Indigo said:
.Scrapheap_as_was said:Well said Mr. Meeks - excellent thread. It will be dissed however because the 'greta garbos' seem happy to accept the price.
Isolation is permanently entrenching yourself into an inward-looking regional bloc of countries that are in decline.
Most people in the UK would settle for an EU that was prepared to return powers back to national governments, but that isn't what most of our neighbours desire.
This needs to apply to all governments in the EZ if long term stability of the Euro is to be achieved. So democracy either ceases to apply to most important government decisions or a new supra-national polis needs to be created to give the people some sort of say, however remote.
The only sensible option available for such a supra-national polis is EU institutions such as the European Parliament. At the moment we are blocking that and if we remain this will be an increasing source of tension as those in the EZ feel their democratic rights being stripped away by budgetary control from the ECB. I agree with Indigo and others that this will eventually result in a choice: join the Euro or leave.
The power of that simple "no ever closer union" clause has I think been underestimated. Anything we don't like? "Ever Closer Union." And a No from us.
That is pretty powerful. You might almost call it Associate Member status..0 -
For further context of the £20bn, Britain's current account deficit in the last three years has totalled £266bn:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop
The OBR's original prediction was for it to be only £26bn:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
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I don't think the LibDems will get 30-40 seats - 10-14 is more likely IMHO. I also suspect (and I could be wrong) that George Osborne doesn't want the crown.Indigo said:
Indeed. This is how I see things developingRazedabode said:It's become pretty clear now that, come the 24th, whatever the result, the EU will continue to be a major issue for the public and future governments.
1. There will be a narrow remain vote
2. Dave is loyal to his mates and attempts to prise Osborne into No.10.
3. Some of the wheels coming off the renegotiation, the chance of the immigration handbrake lasting through the first year is remote, most EU lawyers seem to see that as extremely vulnerable to the ECJ.
4. Dave/Osborne will attempt to handwave these away as details that don't matter because we have voted to Remain now.
5. The hat will be passed around for more money to support the migrant crisis, the government will tell everyone it won't pay, and then quietly will
6. UKIP landslide in 2019 EU elections
7. McDonnell takes over from Corbyn who steps back claiming health issues
8. Hung parliament in 2020 with kippers, snp and LDs all having 30-40 seats.
Other than that, a scarily believable scenario.0
