politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot: Politics after Brexit

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

Isn't that merely a function of money being placed? There is a poll coming out, I read below. Not sure if it will be before or after the interviews, which most people went favourably for Leave.

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

BenedictWhite said:

Stark_Dawning said:

HurstLlama said:

Stark_Dawning said:

weejonnie said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Your prognostications seem generally sound Nick, except I don't think Boris could initiate a 2017 General Election as blithely as you think. More likely he will kick off the negotiations and then govern as normal with them going on in the background for many years. I suspect we'll end up with some kind of quasi-EU-membership arrangement barely distinguishable from what we have now, but by then everyone will have forgotten about June 2016 so it won't matter.

We'll have nearly 4 years of negotiation - and you can be sure UKIP will keep the pressure on if it appears that the UK is giving up too much.

UKIP will be utterly irrelevant by then, possibly even non-existent. But they're only equipped to agitate about the raw, simple stuff anyway: In or Out; Yes or No; Good or Evil. Intervening in the fussy, drawn-out and laborious process of international trade diplomacy would be beyond their functionality. They don't even know what they want to replace EU membership with now. How can they possibly stick their oar in post-Brexit?

Mr. Dawning, You wouldn't consider the idea that for as long as I have been on here (2007) I have been reading posts that UKIP are irrelevant? Yet we seem to having a referendum this month, why do you think that is?

Maybe I am just getting old and senile (Herself thinks so) but I am beginning to see the truth in the old idea that the influence of power is actually trumped by the power of influence.

Mr Llama, UKIP were united - powerfully so - by a single aim: annulling Britain's membership of the EU. There's no unity whatsoever about what happens next. We've everything from turning Britain into the free-trade capital of the planet, with all the immigration and hullabaloo that would entail, to raising the drawbridge and returning to a time when the AA saluted. UKIP will soon be a party without a purpose.

Why does free trade require mass migration?

Because global non-isolationist companies, in a global non-isolationist nation will seek the best employees globally.

Horseshit, America seems to be doing fine without free movement with anyone.

Who said sod all about free movement?

America does have mass migration.

BenedictWhite said:

rcs1000 said:

BenedictWhite said:

MTimT said:

BenedictWhite said:

ExiledInScotland said:

I've been thinking about an interim position on tariffs before trade deals are in place. Could we adopt a position to put in place mirror tariffs by default - I.e. We set tariffs at the same rate others set on us. If they set 0%, we set 0%. If they go punitive, so do we. The incentive therefore is for everyone to go low. Thoughts?

The WTO most favoured nation tariffs on our exports would be £4.6 billion, and theres would be around £8.6 billion.

In that sense our membership of the EU is a sort of buy one, pay for two deal... (We pay twice that in net contributions)

So that could makes sense.

I think the biggest potential impact on economic growth other than the issues discussed ad nauseum about trade deals is deregulation. By shedding the most ludicrous or Europe-centric of the EC directives, we would both reduce administrative burden on companies, and enable them to compete more effectively in some sectors in emerging markets where the cost of compliance with EC directives makes our products uncompetitive.

Some could be got rid of which would help to revive some businesses.

As an Out-er, I'm always intrigued by this question: what could be removed?

I would welcome the end of VAT-mess. And re-opting out of the Social Chapter. But what else is there? I'm a small business person many times over (CrowdScores, PythonAnywhere, THS Partners, Genius Sports Group), and I must confess that - other than in the case of VAT-mess - I simply haven't run up against EU regulations in any of my businesses*.

* Requirements for data to reside in the EU may change that down the line.

Clinical trials directive is one, then the one that says modern art can't be sold in the EU without a levy to the artist which means they are sold offshore. Many of the regulations are daft.

Robert - were all your start ups in the service sectors? If so, I think you'd have had a different experience if you'd been manufacturing or trading in goods.

"Number 10 is reported to be concerned about the balance of the audience at the Wembley event, which will be moderated by Question Time’s David Dimbleby, the Today programme’s Mishal Husain and Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis. "

Sign of weakness there - mind you at least they have the BBC to ensure the audience is evenly balanced - 99.9% Remain, 0.1% undecided but leaning Remain.

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

Toys, cot, throw

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

Whereas you're so noble and selfless, I take it?

BenedictWhite said:

PlatoSaid said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Not being racist and successfully getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands are two separate points.

Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Several years ago, I tried to organise a Sussex PB dinner - Mr Senior made loads of excuses why he wasn't available no matter what date I suggested. I came to the conclusion that he considered anyone other than LDs were unworthy and too dirty to associate with.

I'm in Sussex. (Mid)

Me too, Mr. White, though in Arundel and South Downs Constituency.

Perhaps we should try again for a Sussex PB meet, though because of my eyes it would have to be a lunch rather than a dinner and somewhere I can get to by public transport.

What say you, Miss Plato, Square Root, Mark Senior, Richard Nabavi, Jonathan, and any other Sussex PBers whose names I have, for the moment, forgotten? Lunch in, say, Brighton? We could go to Days and be cheap, cheerful and fattening or perhaps go up market and invite a guest speaker. I do know of a nice pub a stone's throw from the Station that does OK food and first class beer. Open to ideas.

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

You can sense the Remainers are getting twitchy. Desperate for any bit of good news. As Isam would say, longing for a throw in to cheer.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

PlatoSaid said:

kjohnw said:

You know things must be getting desperate for remain when they have to wheel out windbag kinnock to try and reach labour voters. The man who lost an election twice

After pleading to pensioners in SAGA magazine and threaten WW3, we'll never host the Olympics or WCup again...I'm not sure what's left for Remain.

Santa will be barred from visiting the UK on Xmas eve?

Easy. Say that Brexit will lead to an outbreak of bestiality and then Santa's reindeer will refuse to visit the UK.

Brexit will turn the UK into a scene like the Thriller video, but without the dancing.

tyson said:

Plato, you really are quite unforgiving and thin skinned.

PlatoSaid said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

Frankly, I find @tyson one of the most narrow-minded, selfish, rude, empty virtue signallers on here.

Anyone who wouldn't be friends with someone holding an alternative political view is just weird. And rather totalitarian.

No, her assessment of you is spot on.

Indigo said:

Interesting new ballot paper for the EU Ref sighted

http://i.imgur.com/Qm5Q1TX.jpg

The way Cameron has played his referendum surprised it isn't the official one!

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Not being racist and successfully getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands are two separate points.

Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Discrimination may be caused by a number of factors but race does not have to be one of them .

So why are we granting free movement to all the impoverished Eastern European Caucasian Christian nations but not to Turkey or similar?

Because the former are in the EU and Turkey is not .

That is a truism. It is a statement of fact it is not a reason why we should discriminate this way.

This is false naïveté. Leavers are always banging on about how federalism and ever closer union and then feign ignorance about the practical manifestations.

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

No it isn't about promoting self interest. It is about having a level playing field for all people. Something that doesn't exist under the racist, protectionist system that you support.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Syrian troops enter Raqqa province: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36452094

Looking at the map they are coordinating to cut off the remaining route to the Turkish border. If they can do that, that will be a big win.

A win for whom and a loss for whom?

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

No it isn't about promoting self interest. It is about having a level playing field for all people. Something that doesn't exist under the racist, protectionist system that you support.

Racist how?

David_Evershed said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Syrian troops enter Raqqa province: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36452094

Looking at the map they are coordinating to cut off the remaining route to the Turkish border. If they can do that, that will be a big win.

A win for whom and a loss for whom?

Well hopefully it will stop ISIS supporters being able to freely move back and forth between turkey & Syria, which has to be a good thing. Obviously it is alien vs predator when it comes to the outcome of the civil war, whoever wins nobody wins.

rottenborough said:

Thought provoking article. Another factor surely is an early election in 2017 will be dire for Labour in terms of finances. Or have things improved of late?

The mountain of debt has been largely paid off and obviously membership income is way up, but the big individual donors are thinner on the ground than before. I don't think it'd be a decisive factor.

On the outcome if Remain win, my personal view is that Cameron will still call it a day - I can't see there's much in it for him but grief if he hangs around for another year or two. But it opens the door for a Remain candidate to succeed him, and May has to be the big favourite in that case - stable, reliable and avoiding burning too many boats with Leavers. I would expect her to make a friendly gesture to Leavers, perhaps also making Gove Chancellor and giving Osborne the Foreign Office. At that point, attention might switch to Labour's dilemmas, with an awkward conference debate on Trident on top of the general unresolved issues.

The resolution of the issue into "no change" will produce a stock market and sterling bounce, and I'd expect things to calm down for a while, but the structural problems of the economy will still be there (and helped by a stronger pound), and I'd think that the usual mid-term blues would set in after a year or so. But it's much easier to see a relatively smooth path for the Government for a while. Unhappy Leavers have been focusing their fire on Cameron personally, and when he goes I think quite a bit of the bitterness will dissipate, especially if Remain wins by a non-trivial margin.

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

You can sense the Remainers are getting twitchy. Desperate for any bit of good news. As Isam would say, longing for a throw in to cheer.

They should be getting twitchy. It feels very much like Leave are on their way to surprise (to the media and commentators) win to me.

PlatoSaid said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Not being racist and successfully getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands are two separate points.

Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Several years ago, I tried to organise a Sussex PB dinner - Mr Senior made loads of excuses why he wasn't available no matter what date I suggested. I came to the conclusion that he considered anyone other than LDs were unworthy and too dirty to associate with.

That's a little unfair - I feel sure Mark Senior would be happy to associate with Labourites although definitely not with Tories against whom he's always most hostile.

In Italy we say Good Evening after 12.00 lunch time. So definitely Buonasera from here

AnneJGP said:

Afternoon, everyone. (Or is it time to Good evening?)

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

You can sense the Remainers are getting twitchy. Desperate for any bit of good news. As Isam would say, longing for a throw in to cheer.

They should be getting twitchy. It feels very much like Leave are on their way to surprise (to the media and commentators) win to me.

Yes, I fear you're right. I can see it now: the suited and hunched figure of David Cameron, filmed from a distance, as he stalks into Number 10 for the emergency cabinet meeting; Nigel Farage with pint in hand, face glistening with tears: 'This is, without doubt, the happiest day of my life'. It's going to happen.

He'd be very lonely amongst only LD's. I don't think there are any left.

peter_from_putney said:

PlatoSaid said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Not being racist and successfully getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands are two separate points.

Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Several years ago, I tried to organise a Sussex PB dinner - Mr Senior made loads of excuses why he wasn't available no matter what date I suggested. I came to the conclusion that he considered anyone other than LDs were unworthy and too dirty to associate with.

That's a little unfair - I feel sure Mark Senior would be happy to associate with Labourites although definitely not with Tories against whom he's always most hostile.

tyson said:

He'd be very lonely amongst only LD's. I don't think there are any left.

peter_from_putney said:

PlatoSaid said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Not being racist and successfully getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands are two separate points.

Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Several years ago, I tried to organise a Sussex PB dinner - Mr Senior made loads of excuses why he wasn't available no matter what date I suggested. I came to the conclusion that he considered anyone other than LDs were unworthy and too dirty to associate with.

That's a little unfair - I feel sure Mark Senior would be happy to associate with Labourites although definitely not with Tories against whom he's always most hostile.

What about our genial host?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MTimT said:

Wow! Thanks to Innocenta Broad, I've learned today that the old maxim "Charity starts at home" is racist. Have to stop teaching it to the kids.

To the left, particularly Libdems it is. They regard the whole concept of giving precedence to your own nation familiy or tribe/community as inherently discriminating.

Don`t be so silly, Mr Bedfordshire. Please....

MarkSenior said:

blackburn63 said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Close relatives - please define

Parents , children .

You do realise that there are many nations where parents never have automatic right to move and neither do adult children? My in-laws emigrated to Canada and became citizens there but my wife and I [and our children/their grandchildren] do not have any right to emigrate there as a result.

We might I suppose be able to get some points towards Canada's points-based system, but we couldn't simply move there under a close relations visa.

Mr. Llama, one imagines if the Lionheart's life hadn't been cut short he would have spent rather more time in England.

Blame Henry II for giving him continental land. That, coupled with the Third Crusade, didn't give him much opportunity to dwell in England.

tyson said:

Thank you very much for rather reinforcing my claim.

I was rather hoping that someone could make a progressive and optimistic case for Brexit, but there you go. Too much to ask

blackburn63 said:

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

Wanker

I'm happy with taking in more refugees, think foreign aid is fine if better targeted, and don't care about immigration levels. But the EU does not provide enough benefit for the stifling unhelpful control it exerts and contempt it shows for those with concerns, and the latter is why reform us too late to change its nature. For its benefits and ours we should part. We will take a hit, but we have a chance. If it is a mistake we will live with it, but it shill have been more genuinely trying to positively sway us.

Scott_P said:

tyson said:

actually when you look at the ragtag mishaps that make up Brexit- the majority of them would gladly privatise the NHS, and tear up any sense of workers rights.

The more sensible Labour MPs have been making these points. Luckily for Brexit nobody is listening to them.

Well done on the Derby. Stupidly I changed at last minute and did Cloth of Stars.

Indigo said:

not_on_fire said:

Indigo said:

Horseshit, America seems to be doing fine without free movement with anyone.

Erm... you are aware that the US is a union of 50 states with free movement and a single currency?

The UK is a union of 5 states with free movement and a single currency, so what ?

Now imagine that but with a proper federal system and scaled up over the whole of Euorpe. Nowhere else in the world could match us.

David_Evershed said:

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

You can sense the Remainers are getting twitchy. Desperate for any bit of good news. As Isam would say, longing for a throw in to cheer.

They should be getting twitchy. It feels very much like Leave are on their way to surprise (to the media and commentators) win to me.

Wishful thinking?

I'm a Remainer and I will be out campaigning next weekend. It's a gut feeling. A sense that, in my opinion, the UK is about to do something really stupid.

Indigo said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

blackburn63 said:

MarkSenior said:

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

not_on_fire said:

FPT: An astonishing level of ignorance on here about our immigration system. Non-EU migrants have already been subject to a points based system and levies for using the NHS for the past 5 years.

so lets put e.u migrants under the same system and get rid of our racist immigration system we have now.

Quite. How Remainers can defend this perplexes me. Bring in the smart, ambitious and articulate from wherever - not just 27 others who are almost all Caucasian. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.

The numbers are such that to get immigration down to the 10s of thousands you are going to have to exclude many smart ambitious people from everywhere and completely stop any immigration for any other reasons including marriage , close relatives , asylum etc etc .

Close relatives - please define

Parents , children .

You do realise that there are many nations where parents never have automatic right to move and neither do adult children? My in-laws emigrated to Canada and became citizens there but my wife and I [and our children/their grandchildren] do not have any right to emigrate there as a result.

We might I suppose be able to get some points towards Canada's points-based system, but we couldn't simply move there under a close relations visa.

Indeed, in the UK system a non-EU citizen can only have their parent move here if they are a permanent residence and they can prove the parent is completely dependent on them for care. In practice it's very rare for such visas to be granted.

Not exactly uncommon to come on a visitor's visa and to "accidentally" overstay for several years.

That's a problem in any system and won't go away after Brexit. And anyone who overstays won't be given any extra leave to remain in the UK.

What about our genial host?


There is nothing I have read from OGH that remotely suggests he is minimally supportive of the current LD's as it currently stands. I think Dr Fox once suggested Farron was OK, but I took that down to a bad shift he had done at the clinic, or accidentally imbibing a shed load of prescription pharmaceuticals.

weejonnie said:

"Number 10 is reported to be concerned about the balance of the audience at the Wembley event, which will be moderated by Question Time’s David Dimbleby, the Today programme’s Mishal Husain and Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis. "

Sign of weakness there - mind you at least they have the BBC to ensure the audience is evenly balanced - 99.9% Remain, 0.1% undecided but leaning Remain.

I watched the Ipswich Question time, I thought the remainers were going to get lynched (metaphorically). Cardiff not so much.

I wonder how the Wembly audience will be.

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

I heard last week that there were serious voices in favour of Hilary Benn. I know this doesn't cut much ice with Labour members but if he's popular with his own MP's and they can see a chance winning even at their most suicidal it must be tempting.

And if it is Boris in 2017 and he's forced into an election Benn would be in an ideal position to win. Particularly if things go as badly as expected after Brexit

Boris would beat Benn especially as the electorate themselves voted for Brexit

Wouldn't that rather depend on how Brexit is working out in practice?.

The high point for Leave will be the day it wins the ref (if it does) - down hill all the way after that.

The fickle electorate will rapidly switch from blaming all their woes on the EU (as do they now orchestrated by the right wing press) to blaming all their woes on Brexit.

I think that is spot on in your last paragraph. Within months people will be complaining that immigration numbers are still too high.

A friend once pointed out to me when I was looking at buying a boat: "you only get two good days on a boat, the day you buy it and the day you sell it".

Brexit will be the same reaction, but the Brexiteers will not care, because they will have won.

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

No it isn't about promoting self interest. It is about having a level playing field for all people. Something that doesn't exist under the racist, protectionist system that you support.

Racist how?

It says that people from predominantly white European countries should have more right to travel to the UK to live and work than those from predominantly non white countries, irrespective of their individual qualifications or skills. It is of course not intentionally racist but the overall effect is to discriminate against those from non white countries.

So you favour ending the racist policy of making it easier for predominantly white people from the suburbs to move to London than people from, say, Mogadishu?

HurstLlama said:

BenedictWhite said:

PlatoSaid said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

No and No

So you do not oppose removing our current racist policy then?

They are only racist to someone with a warped mind such as you .

Discrimination isn't the slightest bit racist in your eyes?

Several years ago, I tried to organise a Sussex PB dinner - Mr Senior made loads of excuses why he wasn't available no matter what date I suggested. I came to the conclusion that he considered anyone other than LDs were unworthy and too dirty to associate with.

I'm in Sussex. (Mid)

Me too, Mr. White, though in Arundel and South Downs Constituency.

Perhaps we should try again for a Sussex PB meet, though because of my eyes it would have to be a lunch rather than a dinner and somewhere I can get to by public transport.

What say you, Miss Plato, Square Root, Mark Senior, Richard Nabavi, Jonathan, and any other Sussex PBers whose names I have, for the moment, forgotten? Lunch in, say, Brighton? We could go to Days and be cheap, cheerful and fattening or perhaps go up market and invite a guest speaker. I do know of a nice pub a stone's throw from the Station that does OK food and first class beer. Open to ideas.

I don't drink anything with alcohol in it, nor anything with too much fat.

There may still be a Lebanese restaurant in Hove Actually. Quite good when I was last there. Dry house but you can bring your own.

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

Well done on the Derby. Stupidly I changed at last minute and did Cloth of Stars.

Unlucky.

I missed all the business about the shoe, or I might have switched too. But then this

@clarebalding: Lots of messages from people who backed Harzand because of my dream - I just wish I had too! Delighted for the Weld family #InvestecDerby

Thanks Scott much appreciated.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, one imagines if the Lionheart's life hadn't been cut short he would have spent rather more time in England.

Blame Henry II for giving him continental land. That, coupled with the Third Crusade, didn't give him much opportunity to dwell in England.

Thomas (my cat) wants to be fed otherwise I would give your silly comments about Richard I the treatment they deserve. Suffice for now to say your grasp of historical facts is seldom to be faulted (though occasionally wonky) but your interpretation of those facts leaves much to be desired..

Still, squabbling about Richard I (Lionheart, my arse) will make a nice change from that other bloody fool, Hannibal.

not_on_fire said:

Indigo said:

not_on_fire said:

Indigo said:

Horseshit, America seems to be doing fine without free movement with anyone.

Erm... you are aware that the US is a union of 50 states with free movement and a single currency?

The UK is a union of 5 states with free movement and a single currency, so what ?

The point is, America has free movement and it has worked out fine for them.

Isn't the US much more homogenised than Europe?

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Anyone know why all the bookies have suddenly started shifting odds back to Remain? Is there a new poll coming out?

You can sense the Remainers are getting twitchy. Desperate for any bit of good news. As Isam would say, longing for a throw in to cheer.

I think most Remainers think it could go either way and don't have as much emotionally invested in the result as the Leavers. With three weeks to go I would say there is a certain over-confidence being displayed on the Brexit side.

I genuinely believe leaving would be a big mistake but part of me is looking forward to seeing how Johnson et al get on delivering what they are promising.

.

tyson said:

Not a bad effort at making a progressive case, but even you admit we are taking a major leap into the unknown, and I don't like many of your fellow travellers.

kle4 said:

tyson said:

Thank you very much for rather reinforcing my claim.

I was rather hoping that someone could make a progressive and optimistic case for Brexit, but there you go. Too much to ask

blackburn63 said:

tyson said:

Of course. Isn't that the whole rationale behind Brexit which is based on promoting self interest before considering wider issues.

I guess most of you Brexit lot do not like our contribution to overseas aid. Many of you are climate change sceptics. Most think benefits are too high. Most would like to tear up the Human Rights Act. Most do not like the Social Chapter. Many of you would like to ban Islamic refugees even though many are children and families fleeing for their lives. You can count amongst your allies lovely groups like the EDL and BNP, and the Countryside Alliance, and pro hunting groups.

Get my drift comrade. You Brexiteers are by and large a mean spirited and selfish lot, and some of you are really quite unpleasant- though I am not saying you personally are Morris.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyson, you consider me mean-spirited and selfish?

Wanker

I'm happy with taking in more refugees, think foreign aid is fine if better targeted, and don't care about immigration levels. But the EU does not provide enough benefit for the stifling unhelpful control it exerts and contempt it shows for those with concerns, and the latter is why reform us too late to change its nature. For its benefits and ours we should part. We will take a hit, but we have a chance. If it is a mistake we will live with it, but it shill have been more genuinely trying to positively sway us.

Sometime the unknown is a better option, if the known is so poor. I used to think thus was not the case but now I do. I'd prefer Cameron to most of the alternatives but that's life.

OK, I have lumped on Andy Murray to win tomorrow.

Smart punters may now decide to switch to Joko to double their chance of winning...