politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn found his voice on Thursday. Unfortunately, it was e

Innocent_Abroad said:

david_herdson said:

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

The thing to remember about Jezza is that he is genuinely not very bright. In fact, off the top of my head I can't think of another leader of one of the major parties who has ever been thicker. Only IDS comes remotely close. Jezza does not know what he is doing. Literally. A while back SeanT, I think, likened him to Chauncey Gardener. That is entirely accurate.

I've been mulling over recent party leaders and I would tend to agree. Possibly Lansbury might be a rival, but there can't be many alive who remember him.

Indeed, Corbyn resembles Lansbury in several ways; both old, both stupid, both incompetent, both elected following a devastating defeat where most other possible leaders lost their seats, both beloved by the members, both hated by the PLP.

But will Corbyn resemble him in the one way that would really help Labour - by not fighting a general election?

PS, after seeing that video of Juncker, I'm seriously considering voting leave for the first time. There is something really, seriously, deeply wrong with an organisation that promotes and protects such a charlatan (and I'm thinking of his tax policies too).

One coincidence with Corbyn resembling Lansbury is that Cameron is not a million miles from the Tory leader of the time too. Osborne as Chamberlain isn't that bad a bad fit either - though Osborne is a good deal more concerned with PR and popular politics.

Ref the EU and Juncker, it's hardly unique in that. The Lib Dems covered up Kennedy's problems. Labour has promoted Corbyn to the leadership and the Tories did likewise with IDS.

JC hardly drinks. Dunno about IDS, but he doesn't look like a drinker to me.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Scott_P said:

OldKingCole said:

I am constantly surprised at Michael Gove talking about VAT reductions, tons more money for the NHS etc when he is a member of a Government that increased VAT and has effectively restricted spending by the NHS.

It seems a tad hypocritical!

Incidentally, I’ve just been on a senior citizens web forum where the only comments about the EU are for Remain.

It did not go unnoticed

@RhonddaBryant: Gove is fibbing. He doesn't want to cut VAT.
https://t.co/whtorXHn7K

Maybe he dosent - but Labour did want to abolish vat on fuel but the EU would not let them. We are not voting for gove in thus referendum we are voting so that whoever we vote for in 2020 can aboliah VAT on fuel if that is whst the electorate desire.

Any government can effectively cut VAT on fuel by changing the level of petrol duty.

It was Gas and Elec bills that was the issue

SouthamObserver said:

Spot on. A Leave vote will be Labour's failure almost as much as Cameron's. Think what you like about Blair...

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Just on Gove versus Cameron in terms of audience heckling and the like: it's worth noting Cameron's higher profile, and has been for years. This is a risk-free way to kick the PM without any chance of Corbyn becoming the head of government, and I think that should be considered when looking at how the public treat Cameron and someone like Gove (who isn't a nobody but doesn't have a comparable profile).

I'd say there is an even simpler explanation: those who want to leave the EU generally feel far more strongly and passionately about it than those who want to remain.

SouthamObserver said:

OllyT said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-03/trump-plans-to-travel-to-u-k-day-before-brexit-referendum

Trump's changed the date of his UK visit to the day before the referendum.

"So, punk, your parliament of maladjusted intellectual pygmies wasted a whole day ejaculating over some motion, intending to ban me from your shores. Like, whatever happened to it? Does anyone know for sure?

Whatever... I'm here now. So, maybe you can receive me at Downing Street with the respect due to a possible POTUS. Wanna act the jerk, instead?

Hey Man, no problem.

Where's the nearest mike? I feel a press conference coming on... Some kinda vote happening tomorrow, so I hear..."

As the constitutional consequences sink in I think his attack on the judge in the Trump University case is going to play badly.

Trump moved from dog whistle racism to open racism with those comments on the judge.

Steven_Whaley said:

Charles said:

I didn't think he came across that badly in the Vice piece.

A little out of his depth and generally useless, but not a bad person.

He should use that as a campaign slogan! I think it's enough to win some votes with public trust in politicians being so low.

williamglenn said:

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

Gove's answer to the woman with an apartment in the South of France was highly dishonest. This article has good coverage of the issues:

http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html

If 'acquired rights' were sacrosanct, how could we revoke the acquired right of every current EU citizen to come and live here?

Vienna Convention of 1969 (Article 70) says, inter alia, that termination of a treaty does not affect rights granted under the treaty prior to the termination of said treaty.

France is not party to the Vienna Convention of 1969.

Even so, where would the line be drawn? The convention deals with states' rights, not rights granted to citizens. If the right of current EU citizens to free movement within the EU were deemed to be protected, then even if the UK left the EU, everyone who was an EU citizen at that moment would retain their right to settle here for the rest of their life.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

Gove's answer to the woman with an apartment in the South of France was highly dishonest. This article has good coverage of the issues:

http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html

If 'acquired rights' were sacrosanct, how could we revoke the acquired right of every current EU citizen to come and live here?

Vienna Convention of 1969 (Article 70) says, inter alia, that termination of a treaty does not affect rights granted under the treaty prior to the termination of said treaty.

France is not party to the Vienna Convention of 1969.

Even so, where would the line be drawn? The convention deals with states' rights, not rights granted to citizens. If the right of current EU citizens to free movement within the EU were deemed to be protected, then even if the UK left the EU, everyone who was an EU citizen at that moment would retain their right to settle here for the rest of their life.

The precedent would be from when immigration controls were introduced for Commonwealth citizens in 1962. People who were lawfully resident here were entitled to remain, but people who weren't lost the automatic right to settle here.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RIP Muhammad Ali

A brilliant role model for younger people no matter which race or creed!

Cyclefree said:

Steven_Whaley said:

Charles said:

I didn't think he came across that badly in the Vice piece.

A little out of his depth and generally useless, but not a bad person.

He should use that as a campaign slogan! I think it's enough to win some votes with public trust in politicians being so low.

I have to say that I find it difficult to think of someone who hangs around with anti-semites and terrorists as "not a bad person".

Innocent_Abroad said:

CD13 said:

The problem with the labour left (and indeed, the extremes on the right) is that they do hate people who disagree with them. They think they are both stupid and malevolent, but even worse, ill-informed.

That's why they boo and hate Laura K.

She is the font of all evil by not totally buying into the wisdom that Jezza is a latter-day saint. She has confused the feeble-minded, and that's why they vote for other parties.

If you start from the basis that your judgement is always first class, then when people disagree, it can only be stupidity or brain-washing. Laura is totally responsible for the latter and thus deserves to be booed. She is the Farmer Jones intent on destabilising Animal Farm.

In a Trotskyite heaven, there will be no need for voting and democracy. And contrary opinions can be silenced for the good of the people.

Is JC a Trot? How would we know?

perdix said:

Yorkcity said:

This is a really difficult decision.

Gove’s black hole on The Economy was as porous as Cameron’s on Immigration.

No wonder many do not believe in referendums, and it should be our elected representatives who are able to make especially this decision whether we remain or leave.

That is why we have a representative government and surely a leader to lead .

The problem is that our leading "elected representatives" have never explained to their "followers" the implications of EU integration. This omission has been either careless or intentional.

SouthamObserver said:

OllyT said:

NickPalmer said:

For once I entirely disagree with David - and I've never shrunk from talking to anyone, including BNP supporters and people who explicitly thought I should be locked up.

1. The "hissing" was a very short interruption by a small number of people who, contrary to s one thing, but the party leader should avoid it, and I'd advise the same whoever the leader was.

The point I do agree with is that it's worth putting more effort into media outreach than is currently being done. But imposing omerta on party gatherings is not the way to do it. If the worst that anyone in political debate encounters is the odd hiss, not many will genuinely be very affronted. The journalists who I know are much more worried and annoyed about pressure on their editors by spin doctors of all sides - something which David paradoxically argues was the perfect strategy, and which is actually not (so far as I know) being done by Labour at the moment.

Reluctantly I dropped my membership & support for Labour after Corbyn got elected, accepting that although he was not someone I could ever vote for he was the choice of the party.

Although views on the EU were not really considered at the time of the leadership ballot I think that Labour choosing a leader who is, let's face it, anti-EU is possibly going to result in Leave winning this referendum.

Although the party and the unions are strongly pro-EU we are stuck with a leader who isn't and it's tragic. If we leave the EU then, when the history is written, he is going to get a lot of the blame for his insipid leadership of the party on the issue. (One poll showing half Labour supporters don't even know where the party stands)

Up to now I thought his only legacy would be that he would be the only Labour politician capable of losing to a Tory party in total disarray.

Spot on. A Leave vote will be Labour's failure almost as much as Cameron's. Think what you like about Blair, but when he was LOTO there is no way he would have allowed an issue like this to be seen as a Tory party feud. He would have done all he could to own the debate and set its parameters. He would, correctly, have seen it as a potential springboard into power.

Obviously, the Labour membership will seek solace in blaming the Tories for a Brexit vote. They lack the self-awareness to understand just how much they would have contributed to it.

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Spot on. A Leave vote will be Labour's failure almost as much as Cameron's. Think what you like about Blair...

Arguably he would bear a large part of the responsibility. If he'd not destroyed his reputation over Iraq he would now be a respected elder statesman whose voice would carry the mainstream Labour vote.

Chirac is said to have told Blair, "How will you be able to look Leo in the face in 20 years' time if you are the one who unleashes this war?" Instead Blair chose to be subservient to America. Now it looks like IDS and the rest might get their chance to make the job complete.

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: Brexit campaign 'writing cheques they know will bounce', says Cameron https://t.co/NcHQhGgQX0

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

Gove's answer to the woman with an apartment in the South of France was highly dishonest. This article has good coverage of the issues:

http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html

If 'acquired rights' were sacrosanct, how could we revoke the acquired right of every current EU citizen to come and live here?

Vienna Convention of 1969 (Article 70) says, inter alia, that termination of a treaty does not affect rights granted under the treaty prior to the termination of said treaty.

France is not party to the Vienna Convention of 1969.

Even so, where would the line be drawn? The convention deals with states' rights, not rights granted to citizens. If the right of current EU citizens to free movement within the EU were deemed to be protected, then even if the UK left the EU, everyone who was an EU citizen at that moment would retain their right to settle here for the rest of their life.

The precedent would be from when immigration controls were introduced for Commonwealth citizens in 1962. People who were lawfully resident here were entitled to remain, but people who weren't lost the automatic right to settle here.

But that was before we signed the Vienna Convention of 1969 - the one Leavers are using to claim that rights of Brits to live in France or Spain will not be affected.

I'm not expecting to see mass expulsions of people from the UK, France, or Spain in the event of a Leave vote, but I would expect to see all three countries end the right to free movement between them.

another_richard said:

The ONS have adjusted their GDP data back to 1998:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/economicreview/june2016

These new figures allow a comparison between Osborne's growth predictions and the actual outcome:

Prediction
2011 2.3%
2012 2.8%
2013 2.9%
2014 2.7%
2015 2.7%

Actual
2011 1.5%
2012 1.3%
2013 1.9%
2014 3.1%
2015 2.3%

Meaning that GDP is now approximately 3.3% lower than Osborne predicted it would be.

Note also that growth in GDP per capita is approximately 0.8% lower each year than basic GDP growth.

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

Country led by knaves and bounders.

You voted for them.

You are talking about Scotland, right?

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

Gove's answer to the woman with an apartment in the South of France was highly dishonest. This article has good coverage of the issues:

...

Vienna Convention of 1969 (Article 70) says, inter alia, that termination of a treaty does not affect rights granted under the treaty prior to the termination of said treaty.

France is not party to the Vienna Convention of 1969.

Even so, where would the line be drawn? The convention deals with states' rights, not rights granted to citizens. If the right of current EU citizens to free movement within the EU were deemed to be protected, then even if the UK left the EU, everyone who was an EU citizen at that moment would retain their right to settle here for the rest of their life.

The precedent would be from when immigration controls were introduced for Commonwealth citizens in 1962. People who were lawfully resident here were entitled to remain, but people who weren't lost the automatic right to settle here.

But that was before we signed the Vienna Convention of 1969 - the one Leavers are using to claim that rights of Brits to live in France or Spain will not be affected.

I'm not expecting to see mass expulsions of people from the UK, France, or Spain in the event of a Leave vote, but I would expect to see all three countries end the right to free movement between them.

But that's an expectation based on how you expect the negotiations under Article 50 to play out. There's no meaningful precedent.

There are plenty of grey areas. Gove used the formulation of 'ordinarily resident' to claim that the woman in the audience would not be affected, but if you own an investment property in France which you might plan to use for yourself 10 years later, you're not ordinarily resident and would find yourself having to go through whatever the prevailing immigration policy will be.

malcolmg said:

saddened said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

compare that to the turkeys we have in Westminster. They just tell porkies and sneak about.

One of them had her house raided by the Polis this week...

You are talking about SNP MPs, right? Angus and Stewart were definitely sneaking about

They were setup by a Tory Mata Hari. You just cannot believe how low the Tories will stoop. Sending out agents to seduce and traduce their opposition.

Only works on those who are weak, stupid or lack integrity. Which would you use to describe the SNP MP's?

Deluded fools taken in by the Tories, you always get a few weaklings. Still you at least admit how perfidious teh Tories are which is much more important than two bellends. Country led by knaves and bounders.

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

williamglenn said:

Indigo said:

williamglenn said:

Gove's answer to the woman with an apartment in the South of France was highly dishonest. This article has good coverage of the issues:

http://www.connexionfrance.com/Vienna-Convention-1969-expats-rights-residence-Brexit-17867-view-article.html

If 'acquired rights' were sacrosanct, how could we revoke the acquired right of every current EU citizen to come and live here?

Vienna Convention of 1969 (Article 70) says, inter alia, that termination of a treaty does not affect rights granted under the treaty prior to the termination of said treaty.

France is not party to the Vienna Convention of 1969.

Even so, where would the line be drawn? The convention deals with states' rights, not rights granted to citizens. If the right of current EU citizens to free movement within the EU were deemed to be protected, then even if the UK left the EU, everyone who was an EU citizen at that moment would retain their right to settle here for the rest of their life.

The precedent would be from when immigration controls were introduced for Commonwealth citizens in 1962. People who were lawfully resident here were entitled to remain, but people who weren't lost the automatic right to settle here.

But that was before we signed the Vienna Convention of 1969 - the one Leavers are using to claim that rights of Brits to live in France or Spain will not be affected.

I'm not expecting to see mass expulsions of people from the UK, France, or Spain in the event of a Leave vote, but I would expect to see all three countries end the right to free movement between them.

But that's an expectation based on how you expect the negotiations under Article 50 to play out. There's no meaningful precedent.

There are plenty of grey areas. Gove used the formulation of 'ordinarily resident' to claim that the woman in the audience would not be affected, but if you own an investment property in France which you might plan to use for yourself 10 years later, you're not ordinarily resident and would find yourself having to go through whatever the prevailing immigration policy will be.

I'm sure you would. That would not be unreasonable.

PlatoSaid said:

ARD poll in Germany - they want us to stay because we're "honest".

Seven out of ten Germans (69 per cent) agreed that “you can trust Great Britain” compared with 53 per cent for the United States and just 7 per cent for Turkey.

AlastairMeeks said:

Jesus hung around with prostitutes and tax collectors. Though he never stood for public office, so far as has been recorded.

Moses_ said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

James Bond did that....and then pulled the ripcord and a massive parachute in the form of the Union flag appeared.

Please do not underestimate the spirit of the British and the fact that if we do jump of a cliff we are already shackled to a dead corpse which will only make the arrival at said rocks, that much quicker.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

Remind me how many seats the extremely pro-EU LibDems lost at the General Election. Ta.

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

Remind me how many seats the extremely pro-EU LibDems lost at the General Election. Ta.

The "extremely pro-EU LibDems" have been notable by their absence during the referendum.

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

OllyT said:

RodCrosby said:

williamglenn said:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-03/trump-plans-to-travel-to-u-k-day-before-brexit-referendum

Trump's changed the date of his UK visit to the day before the referendum.

"So, punk, your parliament of maladjusted intellectual pygmies wasted a whole day ejaculating over some motion, intending to ban me from your shores. Like, whatever happened to it? Does anyone know for sure?

Whatever... I'm here now. So, maybe you can receive me at Downing Street with the respect due to a possible POTUS. Wanna act the jerk, instead?

Hey Man, no problem.

Where's the nearest mike? I feel a press conference coming on... Some kinda vote happening tomorrow, so I hear..."

As the constitutional consequences sink in I think his attack on the judge in the Trump University case is going to play badly.

Trump moved from dog whistle racism to open racism with those comments on the judge.

They should be running against him as "He is mentally unstable". He isn't really, he's a shameless populist who says whatever will go down well with the audience he's talking to at the time, but the voters probably believe he's authentic so it's best to work on the assumption that he means what he says.

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

Remind me how many seats the extremely pro-EU LibDems lost at the General Election. Ta.

The "extremely pro-EU LibDems" have been notable by their absence during the referendum.

david_herdson said:

Moses_ said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

James Bond did that....and then pulled the ripcord and a massive parachute in the form of the Union flag appeared.

Please do not underestimate the spirit of the British and the fact that if we do jump of a cliff we are already shackled to a dead corpse which will only make the arrival at said rocks, that much quicker.

That misunderstands the nature of gravity.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/brookestimes/status/739028568676667392

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

david_herdson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

Blue_rog said:

I've just completed my postal vote . Had to restrain the force that I used to put my cross in the leave box so I didn't tear the paper.

When you commit suicide , make sure you press the trigger of the revolver harder .

Naught but REMAIN scaremongering!

Lemmings jumping off the EU cliff shouting "We Are Free We Are Free" on the way down to the rocks below .

Remind me how many seats the extremely pro-EU LibDems lost at the General Election. Ta.

The "extremely pro-EU LibDems" have been notable by their absence during the referendum.

Absent or just being ignored by the media?

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Moses_ said:

Tell you what can we stop all the "anecdotes" on the EU referendum.

"I've been on this forum and they are all for remain" and "I've not bumped into anyone down the club that isn't for leaving" etc etc etc... Ad infinitum.

It's all bollocks because the posters doing it are entrenched in their positions of leave and remain so let's just presume that leave / remain posters always bump into someone or participate in a group that wholly and entirely validates the vote they are placing in the ballot box.

There are one or two exceptions to those posters of course but to be fair the other anecdotes are just glib and crass and boring.

To be honest Mr Moses, the anecdotes are more interesting that the poll ramblings...

I agree - though the reports from some are less credible than others.

Watching the paper review on Sky earlier, a chappy who seemed a soft Remainer said he's spent the week in the NE and many he'd talked to were for Leave - inc lots of old friends, he seemed genuinely surprised and a bit thrown.

Ian Dunt whom I expected to be for Remain, left me with the impression he was a soft Leave. I was astonished to hear Lionel Barber of FT fame describe himself a bit self-consciously as Remainish.

Who knows what the Hell is going on. I don't.